And I m rosa keynes each week on the BBC world service. I look at one of the biggest issues in the news this time. It's the the case. Rising covert numbers This is back in July. It was the countdown to what was dubbed freedom day in england, freedom from covert restrictions, if not freedom from the virus, and the plan was clear In england, there would be no rules requiring mosques or social distancing. Instead, two things were emphasised The uk vaccine roll out was one. It would break the link between the number of cases and the number of people in hospital, and then this

the second, will move away from legal restrictions and allow people to make their own informed decisions about how to manage the virus. That's the uk prime minister, boris Johnson speaking in July. His approaches about personal, personal instability and vaccines. Three months on. This is how it's going the number of new daily cases it just short of fifty and that's the high level since mid july and demonstrate amidst winter, is looking challenging as well as this, the uk numbers a far higher than any major european countries like germany, France or Spain. Its numbers of deaths, a high a too and as case numbers rise the uk health secretary such a job. It is saying this with winter ahead. We can't blow it now, so we going to do everything we can to maintain our. led by strengthening our vaccination programme as our primary line of defence,

So no new rules to contain the virus. Instead, every emphasis on boosters on vaccinating children and vaccinating those who so far declined and, if assent told you what the government calls its plan a there, also central to understanding why infections are going up because the uk rapid starts with vaccine roll out is a fact, and now, let's find out, why started Here we, I think, were instead of putting our cells on the back. For how fast the uk is. One of bucks scenes was going. That's actually an ironical become a bit of a problem for us. because what it means is that we have this issue of waning immunity. This is burn murdoch. He's dead the journalist at the financial times, and his point is that offices? six months. We know that the immunity from vaccines can reduce to some degree, especially with the uk most use vaccine asked Zeneca.

And waning immunity can be addressed with boosters, but now, millions of eligible people in the uk haven't had one and then there's children, they vaccines for twelve to fifteen year olds are approved by the for uk chief medical officers in september. The EU The government decided to go ahead with vaccinating children aged twelve an over, but this was neither can be later than countries like the. U s and france and this means the government's handling of the vaccines is now under attack from the opposition. The boost a programme is stalling with charities describing it as a chaotic failure. Only around thirteen percent of children have actually been vaccinated. He's wall of defence is falling down at just the point that vaccination is waning. This is the labour policies, Jonathan ash

now, of course, the government would refute that characterisation, but it is true that waning immunity, the rate of vaccinating children and the boost to roll out are all factors, you try to understand these rising cases, but if we do that completely We also need to consider mosques and social distancing Is it too much to ask really to ask someone on the crowded bustle tube to wear a mask, but also forcing people to go back to work or ending any social, distancing and ending advice about ventilation? All of these mitigations have been maintained on the their levels in our fraction of ours. That's another opposition. Labour mp Ben branch was right that countries like germany I do have laws mandating mosques in certain areas. Scotland does too, but not english. although in some local areas in england moss have been mandated on public transport, though far from everyone is wearing them. Now we know that mosques,

reduce transmission of covered, but the data right now that this issue isn't the big driver of the rising case numbers this. is in the uk Indoors. Socializing is largely that full tales and as the empty John burn murdoch notes. If you're encouraging, or at least not discouraging lots of big crowded into mixing, you'll get more transmission moss. Oh no mosques. Now Scotland and wales have recently introduced vaccine passports or proof of immunity for some large venues, but in the rest of the uk, they're not needed and despite these policy differ he's across the uk for nations, but taken the around the mandate of mosques. We seeing similar covert patterns for all of the uk and those patents a leading some nhs leaders to call for

range of measures to be brought in. They say it's time for the government's plan b. This matthew take from the end. I just confederation, which is a health this lobby group governments, It would in fact pamby if it felt that the health service was at risk, and we also think it is at risk and we need to take I should now like wary mosques in crowded places, avoiding unnecessary in dore meetings working from home, if you can the government says it doesn't think plan b is needed now and listen to this from the health secretary such Javert. There are many more things that we can all do to help contain the spread this farce, like beating outdoors, where possible, and if you can only meet indoors letting in fresh air wearing a face covering in crowded enclosed spaces. That's encouragement but it's not a mandate once more. The government is putting. responsibility on people and also on vaccines. The question is without approach alone.

Will rising, cases become unsustainable for the uk national health service hm, but we don't know yet, of course, is whether those rates will increase. I remember there's all sorts of things going on right now: the oncoming seasons changing may increase transmission. Declining immunity, which we know is happening, is something that affects all those rates and other factors as well, including whether or not other respiratory infections. incidents, hospitalization rates as well. This is professor ronan cow, highlighting that if this winter is a ban flew season. It will make the uk particularly vulnerable to rising covert hospitalizations. This is important because the uk has fewer hospital beds per person than spain, italy, france and germany. Now that lack of capacity is not caused by cove, it there's a far broader discussion about how healthcare works in the uk, but coded can apply press

add to that capacity. This is amanda pritchard, the chief executive of the national health service in england. I think we all are in for a tough winter. If we've got kv patients in our beds, then. Obviously that has an impact on how many elective patients can be in those same beds. The government, though, is offering reassurances. It says in a chess has the ability to manage, and it's not under unsustainable pressure, and it's been reiterating its approach here again. Is the health sector such job it ever since our phenomenal vaccine programme began last winter, we ve been in a race race between the vaccine and divorce, and, although we are heading race. The gap is narrowing the uk strategy in July. The strategy now rests almost entirely on vaccines, which is and what the world health organization is recommending, Catherine smallwood is the covered nineteen in manager for the w h show in europe.

His position is that we can I rely on vaccination at the moment to suppress the virus July, though, that is almost exactly what england has done. In many ways, is gone back to normal with the benefits that brings the rise in cases that brings two and now, with the end, just warning that a tough winter is coming so to a tough decisions for the government. People leaves for now. Vaccines alone can work. This winter will reveal. If it's right. Thank you for listening. There more from the document. She podcast soon Documentary is just one of our bbc world service podcasts. There are many others to choose from.

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