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next phase of the pandemic. I spoke with my colleague science report of corals, it's Friday December, seventeenth. So, Karl, the last time we devoted in episode to the pandemic, the overcrowding fair and had just be merged and our colleague a programme on DVD, told us that, when it came to the big questions about this, how contagious is it? How good is it Eddie, Vaccines how sick might make us we had to wait, wait, wait a couple weeks and we did that we patiently waited, but now we demand answers. So what do you know? Well if you're vaccinated and your boosted, he you're, probably gonna, be in good shape when it comes to funding off the variant everyone

then the pictures more complicated? What do you mean? Well, we know that I'm, a crime is really contagious. It's about two to three times as likely to, in fact people as the delta. twelve were seeing that in case after case so, for example, in Norway there was a Christmas party on December, eighth and there were a hundred eleven people at the party it I'll tested negative. Before going to the party all tax and aided eighty people came away from the party infected while with almost one yes with Amr Cron, all the tests that they ve turn up COMECON. So this was COMECON hitting about. Seventy percent of people had a single party and then in the United Kingdom. Scientists would take a look at people who are infected with democratic and just test the people who live with them in there Again they would find that people were

much more likely to be getting infected in that same house as a had been with delta about two to three times So again and again we can see that yeah. This thing is really contagious and, and eventually that started to become clear when countries counting as many of the american cases as they could and they realise that COMECON who was doubling every two to four days. So we don't know if I'm a guy's gonna completely take over. In all places, but it's really is headed that way, but this isn't just going to be a replacement you know in the United States has about one hundred and twenty thousand cases a day. It's not like we're going to swap one hundred and twenty thousand delta cases for one hundred and twenty thousand omicron cases going to keep it Doing so, you're gonna have more cases because its war contagious, and it keeps doubling and that

doubling we are now seeing in the United States. The first case of endocrine was identified on December. First, that was the first time we even had a crime in this country. and now where I live. In Connecticut, for example, scientists are tracking alma crime. and there are seeing it doubling less than every four days and their predicting at these tearing Connecticut it's going to be dominant before Christmas in Washington State their seeing similar patterns there as well and so likely it's happening across the country right now. It might be just a few percent nationwide Bergmans actually much higher in some regions, so in New Jersey and New York. The way- I said on Wednesday that it was already up to thirteen percent to think about that thirteen percent with a doubling every two to four days, so that's already on track to dominance very soon break as if its thirteen percent on Thursday by

a Saturday could be twenty six percent by Monday. Echoing fifty two percent on an economic goes up, two hundred so called them city of the spread, it seemed to be telling us something about this variants ability to evade vaccines right. So what have we learned about that in the last two weeks or so so what scientists have been doing is they have actually been taking blood from people who have been vaccinated and they have mixed their antibodies. where's, the COMECON variant and trying to see how those antibodies stop the virus from infecting cells? and whereas these antibodies would be pretty good at stopping other variants from infection they're, not very good at all, going up against Omar Crime, how how not very good at all,

in terms of how well these Hannah bodies do it. Blocking the virus in a dish you seeing them reduced by ten twenty thirty times. You are also saying, in some cases like with Johnson Johnson, are asked Rosetta that they don't seem to be stopping these comecon variance at all now, in terms of Vaccines that were most familiar with the United States, though, be Pfizer and modern up Thereafter, bodies mediocre job of stopping I'm a crime in a dash when you take and about it, from people who had two shots of those vaccines, and there actually are studies on people who have been vaccinated to see what the actual effectiveness is of these vaccines against COMECON. So in South Africa, for example, they found that if you got the two doses of Pfizer, the effective

against infection with Amr Crime is about thirty three percent and that's down from like eighty or ninety percent toil the problem is that all those vaccines designed to fight the colonel as we knew it in January, twenty twenty and Crime is a new beast right so It is clearly why Doktor Fouche II and everyone else in the federal health bureaucracy. telling us to get boosted yeah. The evidence is clear that boosting is a good thing, Are you can actually see this again in those experiments where, if you go and take the blood of someone who has been boosted an you throw it against the other on very the imo convention- does a terrible job of getting into cells, so the effectiveness of boosters on top of a full vaccination is still pretty strong again. democratic. So how should we think about what it means to be vaccinated right now

government has not yet said to Americans that is mandatory to get boosted, but from what you're describing real protection doesn't really com until you get, Booster shot. Yeah it'll be interesting to see if there is a change in language, a change in rules, but I mean really if what you want like eighty ninety percent protection against infection from covered we need to be fully vaccinated and have a booster shot thinking about the unboxing, aided and the vaccinated, but not boosted. What do we know about how this variant so far infects the groups of people, how sick or not all that sick does it make them. So it's too early to really say much with a lot of precision about exactly what kind of severe disease people may be facing.

on vaccinate are vaccinated. Someone unfortunate. We have to wait for that. To come in, but from what we know already about covered, what we know already about how vaccines work, it's very likely that you're on vaccinated and never had code before you're at the highest risk of getting severely ill from COMECON now, if you have been vaccinated or if he recovered from an infection, even if your antibodies dont do a great job and you get infected, you may Do a better job of fighting off severe disease and there is actually

a little bit of data on that again from South Africa, one of their healthcare systems estimates that if you ve had two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, it has an effective this at protecting against hospitalization of seventy percent against Omer Kron. The time that I I was ninety three percent against other variants, but that's good. I mean that seventy percent and that's for two doses- so then the thinking is that if you can get a booster, you probably are raising you're protection against opposition way way up beyond that again. So is it safe to assume that if you have the full vaccination, but not the booster you're unlikely to get very sick from overcrowding, your risk of going into the hospital is quite reduced compared to if you hadn't been vaccinated.

got it and do we know for the Un Vaccinated, I'm guessing, we don't. You know how likely specialization is from an overgrown infection We don't really have those numbers yet again, as with previous Apparently, no most people who get sick are going to do. You know not be these are rarely SEC, but the problem is a whole bunch of people get infected that still with a lot of people in the hospital. Just explain up well. You know, let's imagine, that American is very mild but say that it sends half as many people to the hospital as other variance as I said before, this thing is taking off and it could potentially produce far

more cases, then we're dealing with even now with delta. So if you have two times three times as many cases, even though you know smaller fraction of them are severe you're still sending more people into the hospital and don't forget. Our hospitals are already really hurting there are a number of hospital systems across the United States that are still meaning under the pressure of delta cases. there were still in the middle of a delta surge. But at this point we cannot say correct that hospitals will be filled, because we do not yet know how Severe infections? Are in any population from COMECON I want to push back a little on that, because what I am hearing from other people allow the time with a Micron there's this idea that serve taken.

Dad? I'm a con is mild that its milder than delta and really like, if you, if you talk to epidemiologists they'll, say well, let's just wishful thinking you don't. You wouldn't be nice if this will, just like my little girl, Odin ended, I just went away that would be lovely by actually We don't know yet what this is. Gonna look like once millions of people get this thing, I think it's dangerous for us alone, thousand and complacency with the idea that we're gonna get a pass. just remember less than seventeen percent of Americans have done a booster. So I think that this winter is going to be rough.

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what seems like very positive information about a new treatment for covered end, We have talked about that, get on a show and are hoping you can brief us yeah it. It's kind of a strange whips. Experience reporting uncovered these days as there is some really depressing news to deliver and then you know the next day. You might be really amazed at what science is giving us in terms of new tools to fight the disease, and one of those tools is a new pill made by pfizer- and we just learn this week- that it is extremely effective in using people's risk, civilization or death from covered nineteen, how effective so for people who take it within five days of developing symptoms, it reduces their risk by

eighty, eight percent, so nobody who took the pill died and relatively few them ended up in the hospital. Who was a very strong effect. It's really what you for when you run a trial on an antiviral pill, how did the trial work? Who was tested so Pfizer ran a trial over two thousand people. For them would get the pill There have would get a placebo, and these where people who were picked because they were especially high risk of developing severe disease from covered nineteen. Are these people, who are on vaccinated and had some sort of risk factor things like diabetes, for example, and so the these would be people you'd, be worried about because they have a higher chance than others,

ending up in the hospital or even dying, and so every day for five days. People take their course of pills, and these pills are worked. Very well, it seems from the announcement that Pfizer's made and seemed at their very safe as well. So those are both great things and not a sound. One of those and the commercial Thomas, six, thirty news that are there any side effects to taking this Pfizer pill. There were no side effects that popped out in this phase three trial is it possible that there are very rare. You know one in a hundred thousand side effects? Well, we can't rule that out. We would have to wait for the pill to go into widespread use before those might come to light, but it

it's a kind of drug that is already in use for other viral diseases. The same basic idea is behind till the people take for HIV or for Hepatitis, and those pills have a good safety profile, so antiviral exports, I've taught You are pretty confident that this will be that fine, especially because you're only taking at far in five days, everything you're describing makes it sound like us, killed Muriel game Changer, but how certain are we that its effective against the various variants of the virus delta, which is still very much with us? Oh mccrone, witches about to be very much with us and whatever else the next variant looks like. As far as I can tell this pill, packs loaded works against all variants. Ok, just wrapping up all the inevitable questions about this pill. Is there any group of people who can't take it? For example, if you're fully separated and you get a case a covert? Can you use this pill, or is it real

being reserved, we think for the UN's vaccinated who are likely to get most sick. Let's say your boots. If you get covered, could you use a spell? well, assuming that the FDA authorizes this pill and there's no reason to think that they won't honestly there's gonna be a limited supply at first in a Pfizer, actually told that is, their only gonna have a hundred eighty thousand courses ready to go if this gets authorize soon ha. That's not very many. That's not very many, and so those are gonna, be you know in a big demand, and so they will have to be priorities set about who is going to get them initially Paoli. They will have to be saved for the people who are at greatest risk of ending up in the house. Or dying, but after a while that probably will expand to bigger categories. So, if we're looking to fulfil them

lifesaver in this moment, once its approve that only gonna be true of your at extremely high risk of getting very ill or maybe dying at first. That could be the case, but you know that the important thing is that this pill could save a lot of lies and a could keep alot of people out of the house at all- and if we are going to be facing surging, I'm gone cases putting a strain on the hospital system. any tool. We have to keep people out to let them recover. At home is gonna, be incredibly valuable, from everything you're saying it certainly feels like the FDA, is likely to prove packs, love it so. Let's say, the FDA does and lets say they do it pretty soon is their aversion of the next few weeks or months, where this pill

Reaches Americans, justice, Omer Kron is slamming the country and it prevents the worst effects of the variant, which is a somewhat severe illness and potentially death specially among the on vaccinated. Is that a scenario that could play out. The timing is really tight, because you know that our current whores, out of the barn, and so you know next week, I'm a crime is going to be really widespread. The United States of America gonna be creating a huge increase in demand for treatments like this and I dont, think fires. You will be quite wrapped up when COMECON really hit us hard, so called this. What we ve done just said a lot of new information about Homer Kron and this pill from Pfizer, and we reached that difficult place in any conversation about

this pandemic, where we want to be sure we're getting the balance right between you should be alarmed and, let's not be alarmist, when I'm hearing from you is. This variant is something to be anxious about and taken very seriously, but this pill is also something of a game changer that might meaningfully begin to mitigate the worst elements of this pandemic. So in getting the balance right, how shall we be thinking about all of us right now? I'm a grand does have to change the way you live

forever, but certainly at least for the next few weeks. So what do we do to preserve our own health and to preserve the health of our hospital systems? We need to avoid getting sick. We need to wear masks. We need to avoid those poorly ventilated indoor spaces where Roma is gonna, be infecting lots and lots people will grow. I wanna Berwin. It then a little bit because I think this is the moment and the conversation, and it feels like deja vu from the earliest days of the pandemic. Where people to themselves does that mean I'm not supposed to go to a restaurant even though and place in New York City the rules say you very much can that I must to go to a birthday drinks thing tomorrow night then I will

want to and that again the rules say you can, and you know this we have reached a point in the pandemic, where both government rules and personal conduct has started to relax for all kinds of reasons, and it's going to be very hard to convince people, maybe even impossible. The commons people that they need to give up some of those freedoms, and I guess the question is: should they really have to give up his freedom in this moment? I think we need to just look at the facts that we understand about. I'm a and just set ourselves like well. What is it that we need to do? And it's not a question of like what can we do? That's fun, it's a question of what can we do to keep hospital systems for breaking the more. We can do to make it harder for home across to get.

one person to another, the less suffering there? Will be now, we need to make good use of that time if we can, for example, use that time Get the percentage of people were boosted way way up. That will help deserted, bring us more like a long term protection against covered in general, but for now You saying like, oh well, you know I still want to go out and meet my friends at a big party. You know like if I'm neurons there, it's pretty good chance. You walk away Velma crime. Now, maybe you have like a few days of being met? people like you have a really bad cold. That's that's possible maybe you end up in the hospital. Even if you don't end up in a hospital who do you give it to what's your role in this stage of the pandemic, What are you going to be doing? Are you going to be fine guess I'm a con? Are you gonna be enabling on the ground

this is your. Are you with us? Are you against Islamic Language should be on the side of human beings. You know we should not be problematic and anyway I don't want this conversation without acknowledging that it's almost the end of the year, and this will mark the end of the second calendar year of a pandemic? and I'm curious what you think the lessons of this last year or in the pandemic? You know, I think one of the lessons that we should never be complacent about this virus. We should never assume that we have it in hand this Myers is alive, surprises left for us he's, gotta lotta runway left. Thank you currently projector. Thank you. As of Thursday night. Several

Cool governments reported major spikes and infections. On Thursday alone, New York State recorded eighteen thousand infections, a new record overall, the you is recording an average of more than a hundred and twenty thousand new cases a day. A forty percent increase from two weeks ago and the hospital illustration of sixty eight thousand and covered patients, a twenty one percent increase from two weeks ago. We're on vaccination, we are looking at a winner of severe arose and death, I'm back for themselves. Their families and the hospitals will soon over well. On Thursday night President Bite warned Americans of long winter ahead, but there is good news if you'd vaccinated had we boost your shot, you're, protecting

severe almost dead right back living, while its being perfectly at ease and comfort and style with hundred Douglas is innovative window shades, get enhance style and comfort with greater convenience, their power view technology allows shades to be scheduled to automatically adjust to their optimal position throughout the debt. Adjust shades decreed that perfect balance of late privacy and installation visit Hunter Douglas dot com slash the daily today. Fear freestyle get smarter design guy with fresh takes creed of ideas and smart solutions for dressing. Your windows Hunter Douglas dot com, slash the daily here's. What else you need to nerdy on Thursday? U S health officials, Herman,

we lifted a major restrictions on access to abortion, pills, allowing Americans to receive the medication by male instead of requiring them to obtain the pills in person from healthcare providers, The decision will make medication abortion more available to women. At a moment when the Supreme Court appears poised to roll back or even returned the nineteen seventy three ruling that made abortion legal across the? U S, President Biden has acknowledged that he will not pass a historic climate and social spending, though, by the end of the year, as he and congressional Democrats had pledged. Because their negotiations with a centrist hold out Senator Joe Mansion have reached an impasse. The delay, which could extend well into twenty twenty two high

It's the challenge Biden faces in convincing his own party to support the sweeping legislation which would, among other things, subsidized paid, leave, childcare, healthcare premiums and the purchase of electric cars. Tidies episode was. Just by Sidney, Harper Proper Chimps, Michael Simon, Johnson and moods eighty with help from Luke Vanderpool and ask each other very. It was edited by Patricia, will ones and Dave. and engineered by Chris would regional music by Marian Lozano, our theme music is Jim Gomberg and then landfill of Wonderingly.

That's it for the daily. I'm, like old, I'll, see you on Monday by working with more than eight hundred sixty thousand companies world I'd ATP has a pretty good idea of how to help businesses grow stronger, whether its through data insights, that helping. informed decisions about building a team that works better as a team or by keeping you ahead of thousands of aging regulations. So you can keep ahead of everything else, like building that better team grow stronger with eighty p, H our talent, time and peril