From the new york times, I'm catherine Ben, who held in four sabrina, tavern easy this is the daily. A recent string of attacks across the middle east has raised concerns that the war between a mass and Israel is spreading and might put pressure on other countries like iran at the united states to get more involved today, my colleague Eric Schmidt on them is that the conflict is becoming an even wider war and the efforts under way to prevent that it's thursday, january. Eleventh Eric welcome back to the show. Thank you very much

from the moment that Hamas attacked Israel in october, seventh and Israel, responding to gather the united states has been very concerned about an escalation of this war into the region and in the last few weeks they have been a series of strikes and counter strikes in different parts of the middle. And in the red sea, and so I come to you Eric as our National security correspond to ask. Is this the moment? This conflict is turning into that wider regional war that we fallen worrying about orchestrion? I think you're right. This is a moment of grave concern. Ever since the october seventh attacks in Israel, the bite a She has been relentlessly focus not only on responding to that more, but specifically on how to avoid having the war widened beyond Gaza himself and his top aids field a wider war in this region would be an echo.

I like disaster, a security catastrophe and would be very damaging going into an election year to have that kind of conflict running, particularly one in which can be hard to see how it'd be contained. So from the very beginning, the president ordered the first of what became two aircraft carriers and doubled a number of american strike aircraft in the region, basically to worn off anybody else who would try and take advantage and try why in the conflict in the region, so let's unpack some of this, its messy talkers through these recent events Eric what has happened beyond Israel in Gaza yeah, I think we have to really look kind of the events of the last ten days or so to really underscore this concern of our work a regional war in the Middle EAST. In first off, I think it's important They are that one reason the events of the last few x or concerning the EU s? Officials is because most of them are tied to iran in some way in the concern here is that IRAN,

not want to get directly involved as all these proxies that it'll activate in lebanon in Iraq, in syria and yemen itself So, for instance, tonight a senior hamas leader is dead and the serious concerns the war in the middle east is about on January. Second, the deputy leader of Hamas Sally. I worry two leaders of its armed wing were killed an explosion in a suburb of bare route. Lebanon, Israel was responsible for the attacks, according to you, us in western officials who does it better said: read benefits the israelis to kill him, and they did so almost certainly hard to imagine anybody else. This is significant and in a couple of ways one is Israel fight against Hamas. It goes outside of Gaza itself in their reaching into lebanon, but more significantly, it's on the home turf of hizbollah, which is the largest. Most formidable proxy that iran has in the region has been financed and equip by around

for years and years, and its very much of a concern there in a statement released by hezbollah, it says its hands on the trigger, so that's kind of the first thing. The second is the Eu S. Military killed a high ranking a rocky militia leader in Baghdad. Today, you have a mysterious explosion in Iraq. Iraqi ministry of foreign affairs has condemned the bombings based on january forth. It turns a u s best. operations. Drone killed a senior fee we're in iran linked militant group that is actually part of iraq, security apparatus, their faith and ministry quote reserves it's right to take a firm stance and all necessary measures to deter anyone who tries to harm it's territory, but american officials defended the strike as a. Of defence attack against a key commander in this militia. It is carried out more than a hundred and twenty eight, acts against? U S, troops inside Iraq and syria. Since the october seventh assaulted

This is very much of a concern for american officials thereof for their own personnel. Hezbollah is claiming a top coming or has been killed in an israeli air strike in beirut january age, of a strike in southern lebanon again and hezbollah. Stronghold kills a rod one force commander. This is it a strike has been carried out by israeli strike aircraft. Clearly, the israelis are deliberately trying to send a message to us. allow that they are in no mood to be messed around on the border. That new and basically. This kind of the latest in a series of back and forth cross border tax between lebanese Hezbollah and Israel that the united states is Concern could turn into a much wider campaign today that Hezbollah could ramp up their staff against northern israel. Following this strike that took place this morning. I think at the moment

with tensions, as they are, it's more likely that things will flare up and its radwan. Forests is basically the military this sort of most elite military wing of hezbollah, that's right in their right up on. You know the border, and this is a big concern for Israel, because Israel has had to evacuate tens of thousands of resin in the northern part of the country, because the territory's coming under consistent rocket missile attacks from has loud and even before october, two. This was the area that Israel and the united states frankly were most concerned about. So once you have the october seventh tax once you have iran activating its proxies. Israel, of course, is very concerned that a next step might be kind of retaliation by hezbollah. So far that has not happened and intelligence sources indicate that hizbollah does not want to get in. In a wider war, but this escalate

in that we ve seen of cross border attacks, could lead to a miscalculation, could to one side or the other decided they have to go forward and that could basically engulf that part of the country and a second front in the last area where we ve seen a lot of activity is in red sea. fifty militants have launched twenty five attacks on commercial ships since mid november, including wanted This is the key waterway were twelve percent of the world's commerce flows through it and what you ve had since the october. Seventh, what is hooty rebels in yemen have lie, a series of attack, drones, missiles and rockets, commercial shipping, basically saying and vowing to continue these attacks against, commercial shipping until israel withdraws from Gaza and ends the war there? This is a dramatic impact on

shipping lanes were five of the world's largest shipping companies have announced they're suspending sailings through the route, while the who these say they're targeting israel bound ships, but experts say that firing indiscriminately. So what you have here is the one who these, which are another one of these proxies launching a series of attacks, the most recent of which came on tuesday night iranian back to italy. Rebels have herod out their largest attacks so far, and shipping lanes be minister defence as a british warship, an u s, warships for them off, and this was significant because just left week, the u s and its allies have worn the group to stop or face potential military action. The united states, and a dozen other countries basically gave the hutus is an ultimatum, see and assess these kind of attacks, or else was kind of the ultimatum. Now the coalition did not specifically mention military strikes. But our reporting indicates that the panic,

has been drafting target lists of healthy our sights and mitchell store jerry is, and all sorts of things should, president I and some of the other coalition countries that are involved here, decide that they want to launch retaliatory strikes. In the meantime, the united states has led an effort to create a maritime security force. These are ships. specifically designed to knock down these attacks that are coming in from the hutus and they bring by large, relatively successful These have seized one container ship and still hold it in the red sea But you now have a coalition of more than twenty countries operating ships in at sea and sometimes a scorching commercial vessels. through the waterway to allow them to reach their destination okay. So it really does sound like the answer that early

question I asked about a wider war is this: it is yes, it feels, like things, have really spread in the way that people feared when the war. For a start, it. But again it certainly a central worry for president Biden in his top aids in washington and for other allied officials who were involved in this conflict. And it's a central concern for the: u S, secretary of state, Anthony blinkin, who is currently in the region on his fourth official visit there, since the war started but despite these incidents in this kind of stocking up that we saw so ominously in the last ten days or so there are some kind of large forces at work they make. These incidents from spiralling out of control

we'll be right back so Eric. You mentioned some big forces that are keeping this conflict from spinning our control Let me, through those there are at least two factors. One of them is the news from earlier this week, israel announcing that it plans, to wind down some of its intent the operations in gaza and between northern gaza by the end of january, but what does Scaling back actually mean exactly given that they just killed hezbollah leader right, so what it means in Gaza least, as you would see if this actually happens. A lessening This massive aerial bombardments that Israel is conducted to clean the northern parts of Gaza, And you would see much more targeted raids by

full operations forces going after Hamas leaders a specific operations going after the tunnel network that Oh there. This is something that they have told. American officials knave announced publicly justice earlier this week that interesting enough disraeli officials are really giving. messages. There's one message to the international community: that's what we just talked about how they're gonna be ramping down some of these heavier operations, particularly in the north. That's too basically assuage some of the international community's concerns about the loss of life and more than twenty? Three thousand civilians have been killed there, but there is a very different message Is that these same leaders are giving to the israeli public, and that is the war is not going to end. This is going to go on for months. If not years we are going to track, hunt down and capture all the leaders responsible for the october sale, the attack and will do whatever is necessary to restore security to the country and re establish deterrence.

in this area, so it's really a twin, focused dual messages: one for the international community, one for the domestic is really audience got it. So how do you explain this dual messaging Eric? Well, I think it's, the netanyahu government, obviously responding to the heavy criticism in the pressure from the united states and other governments with a growing number of civilian casualties. It's just untenable and the pressures that those governments are facing back home to continue their supportive.

israel. At the same time, you have israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, wanting to signal that you know we're not scaling back on the larger ambition to eradicate this terrorist organisation that was responsible for the attacks, nor we are giving up on recovery in all the hostages. You said that there are two factors: what's the second element here that might slow down or stop and outright beetle war breaking out. So the second one is actually misguided, paradoxical, but it's a ran itself around wants this kind of chaos, but it wants a kind of control, chaos or control. The escalation it is the puppet master for most of these proxies that its supported and equipped over the years, but it so in iran's interest, and they ve made this fairly clear that it doesn't want the conflicts to spin out of control and then in a drag either. Its principal proxy has ball into or even worse, engulf iran in direct conflict with the united states or israel itself. Why not

well. I think this has a lot to do with the iranian governments, popularity or lack thereof, and the weakness domestically I mean one of the things we haven't talked about was in the midst of this series of events That happened. The last ten days there were twin explosions. Commemoration ceremony for the death of a bright top array in general general salami. This killed more than a hundred people in this procedure in a city in iran, immune there were some suspicion that that Israel might be behind it, but in and it turned out to be an arm of islamic state. This was, terrorist striking that colored revealed perhaps some of this deficiencies in the domestic security apparatus inside of around they couldn't protect their own people against one of the worst domestic terrorist attacks in iran's history. So this idea of controlled calves that you mention basically mean

that iran wants to make life difficult for his throne, the? U s, but it doesn't want a regional war, because that would pose an existential risk to the regime, its basically about survival. Thus, right you know, they don't want. Hizbollah dragged into another very costly, warlike. They were in two thousand and six that ultimately could force IRAN's hand have to support them, could drag the united states in to support israel in something like that. So you know: are these factors that iran can't totally control heat this war up and I think most immediately besides. What we see in lebanon has bola is this central conflict with the who these, because that is the proxy that the iranian have the least amount of operational control over. So basically, all of this adds up to a situation with a lot of uncertainty, including how much control iran has over its proxies and perhaps also how much control the? U s. S

in the mix. Here, that's right and if you look at some specific examples, this is where the concern really lies in miscalculations in one form or another, that people can assume predict another factor that keeps the white house, up at nine. They really don't like to talk about it. Very much is what happens if american service members or killed, as I mentioned before their been over sixty that had been injured at least one critically in these rocket and drone and missile attacks with them. She's had fired a troops in iraq and syria, but the been a number of close calls. The pentagon has not wanted to talk about it. All there was one instance were a missile landed in a barracks, and it failed to explode had done so it would probably would have killed a dozen or more troops that were there. There been a couple of Instances like this just by sheer luck that some of these attacks with art necessarily always the most precisely targeted by these militias could have killed american forces on the ground, and, if that were to happen

that would immediately put pressure on president bind to respond not just perhaps to the proxies who actually carried out these strikes. But perhaps against iran itself for providing the equipment. The supplies, perhaps even intelligence, then enable those strikes to happen. But, as you said, the, u S is also sending more troops and why ships to the region, so it could be creating a scenario where they're increasingly making themselves targets in this will perhaps. But the administration has been very clear that the the additional ships that the two aircraft carriers, one of which has since left, been replaced by some marine ships, as well as twice the number of attack aircraft that had been sent to the middle east and the persian gulf region since october. Seven, those are there as a deterrent and by all accounts that deterrent has worked. It's worked at least so far in iran

he's gotten the message and has tried to calibrate its responses through its proxies, but, as you say, as you have more troops and in the area, particularly ships in planes, those are more targets sank. The jury is still out on whether this will turn into a full blown regional war, but from everything you ve said, it's already pretty clear that this war and its ripple effects are reshaping the Middle EAST. Yes, I think that's right, we ve seen after years, have been an international pariah. Iran, is we asserting itself, it's obvious, the centre of this post october, seven conflict and managing its power, Crises in the region- and you have nine states being drawn back into the middle east after four years trying a kind of wine down after the long wars in afghanistan, iraq and put it to the end of pacific.

and you have israel trying to obviously reestablish security for its population. And deterrence in the region after this historic attack. You have efforts. I think on all sides- the: u s side, even the iranian side, the israeli side, to try and contain this, but there could be miscalculation that lead any one of those actors down a road and one that they're not plan On that day, don't desire that could drag. And the other actors in the Middle east into a much wider conlin. Thank you very much ag. Thank you. on wednesday after american and british warships intercepted at the latest barrage of drones and missiles fired by who see rebels commercial ships in the red sea secretary of state

antony blinken, warned that the? U s and it's allies would respond. We've made where we've been clear with more than twenty other countries, that if this continues as it did yesterday, there will be consequences and I'm going to leave it at that. The attack one of the largest state, by the who see since october. Seventh came a week after the. U s, led coalition gave an ultimatum to the rebels to see, is their new delhi attacks or face retaliation we'll be right back here's what else you need to know today:

on Wednesday president Biden's son hunter Biden, surprised republicans on the house oversight committee, when he briefly appeared in the hearing room, where a vote to hold him in contempt of congress for failing to sit for a private deposition was about to take place. Hunter Biden has repeatedly offered to testify publicly before the committee, which is leading an impeachment inquiry into president Biden, but he has refused to be interviewed behind closed doors. His appearance infuriated several republicans on the committee, including republican representative, Nancy, mace of south carolina who addressed and divide and directly you are the epitome of white privilege coming into the oversight committee, spitting in our face, ignoring a congressional subpoena to be deposed. What are you afraid of? Do you have her remarks? Drew a rebuke from a Democrat on the committee representative, Jared moskovitz of Florida, who replied that hunter by

would be happy to testify so long as it wasn't public. Mr chairman board of inquiry, mr chairman, The lady wrote in the general give the gentle eighty wants to hear from your bite and we can hear from him right now. Miss grammont, let's take a vote and here behind your bided. What and hours after former governor chris Christy jersey, suspended, has campaigned for. President too. of the remaining republican candidates from the centres and Nicky Hayley clashed during the last debate before the iowa caucasus. And out tonight, there's gonna be a lot of ron's lies that have happened there at least a couple a dozen. So far that he's don't hey, you called the centres a liar. He does Her as a liberal and conservative clothing, who could not be trusted with the values. republican party Nicky Hayley is basically a carbon copy of wood Biden. Is the difference between former president donald trump, also running for them public, a nomination appeared at this

in time in the town hall and announced that he had me. This decision on a running made, though, when asked what was would not give a name. Today's episode was produced by sidney. Harper asked the charter, weighty some two miles and diana win. It was editor by partition, villains and Michael brunwalde contains original music. By dan power and will read and was engineered by Chris. Would our theme, music is by Jim brun bark and Ben lance work of wonderingly. the that's it for the daily Katrin bennhold see you tomorrow.