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Alvaro? This is the daily the today in the republican presidential, primary nikki haley is having a moment. The question is, what does it mean and where can it go? I spoke with my colleagues.

Yasmina hill and they caught the thursday december seven, the the thank you so nice, it's great to be here in johnson, county and great to be here in iowa city, and you know when jasmine you have been covering the nikki haley campaign over the past many months. Every speech every event, and I wonder if you can help us understand what her candidacy was like when you first arrived on this beat so I first started trailing her in the summer. So I see some new faces We appreciate that sort and start off by telling you a little bit about me and then we'll and her crowds were modest and you know I want to say there were empty chairs everywhere, but they were definitely small. I'd look around in the press:

in and there weren't that many reporters there. Yet so what I will tell you, if you liked what I had to say today, go tell ten people and the attitude from voters was excitement to see a conservative woman on this national stage, plenty of people knew or as governor of south carolina or even more as the united nations ambassador under donald trump. How are you? How are you are so glad you're here thanks, but at the time there didn't really seem to be a clear case for why she was running The attitude in the crowd was still very much like. Why is she doing that is I remember being in the audience and no vote or very early on asking. Is this going to be a repeat of twenty. Sixteen, where the field is just going. be fractured, and it's going to give trump a chance to rise, and don't you think people should drop out in the application, and

question was: don't you think you should drop out? What you're describing a what this border is really saying is that Nicky healy at this point is kind of being? not right. She was single digits in the polls. She was low and fund raising, and that was especially putting her. disadvantage in a place like iowa, where it takes a lot time and resources really cover ground in the state, when did you start to notice all of that beginning to change? tonight the race for the white house takes flight. Welcome to the first. I think the first inflection point for her campaign really was the first debate. This is exactly why Margaret thatcher said if you want something said a man. If you want something done, ask of that's when she really stood out from the pack, you have to say, as you got, TIM's got you

my parents, they all voted to, raise the debt and at the next debate she even better. I honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say, because she projected strengthen confidence and- sperience? Suddenly I would america less than you have no more in politics, beards and if you know what and slow in steadily I started seeing more people at her events. The make up of the crowds was differ she was reaching more independence- moderates interesting I was just in new Hampshire last week and I talk to voters. Yes, I am when when when did considering well, we watch the debates in everything and and what I was hearing from people was that they really life what she had to say at the debates, debate debated within two or three of three of them.

three. She says she signs. She has great presence as well as handles herself, am I think, for the moon for talks about the gap in this? She felt pragmatic as far as abortion. They were really attracted to the wasting time about issues, especially a voice. In the big picture and alive in politics, I wanna be far left far right here. I don't do that gotta be somewhere in the devil, one I think more than I wouldn't vote for trump, It sounds to a few people that sound a little bit more reasonable. The former president in the primary I dunno. But I'm wishing him the best of luck

and how does this growing energy end up being reflected in those pools which you said had been in just a single digits back in the summer, so she's really surged in the early states, be no after being less than ten percent. early says she has now at twenty percent. While nearly twenty percent of new Hampshire in south carolina, where she isn't solidly second place and in iowa she's, climbing she's reach, Rhonda santa's she's tied in some poles about sixteen percent in the last all in october, and that steady climb in the polls, the break out performances and then fact that you had former vice president in my pants and senator TIM Scott, who was a fellow south carolinians dropped their bids. This fall. All of these things had kind of lead up to

Her seeing not only arise and enthusiasm on the trail, but this rise in donations and she's really caught the attention of more affluent donors, mortal weena wall street executive severally warmed up to her, and on top of all that, she has attracted the attention. of one of the most influential republican donors. Billina David coke, whose network americans for prosperity action to stop. Sweden doors her, and this is one of the largest grass its organizations out there and they basically came out backing her saying that she was the most delectable candidate and not only saying that she's attests to leader with the right judgment in the policy background to really turn the page on the divisive politics. At the moment- and that endorsement, means that all that organisations money all of its political muscle is suddenly behind Nicky Hayley, and it really seems to cap this pretty remarkable transformation from a candidate. Who cares

fill a room isn't covered by a lot of national reporters and is in the single digits to what nikki Haley is now at the close of twenty twenty three, which is a candidate who looks like pretty much the number two in this race cross. Many of these early voting stinks right I mean within a week of that endorsement, the organisation that already poured three point five minutes. dollars into hiring door, knockers in placing digital adds, so that really is, when the teams the game for her on the mobilization front, because the candidate who now has hundreds of volunteers in each of these early states- and so it's been quite a few months for her and it's been pretty remarkable- to watch her clients from such a low position in the race

to this strong challenger representative of people who want something other than trump sullied as jasmine just explained. Nick he'll success over the past few months is with undeniable and mathematically quite impressive, and now We want to turn to you to put it into context, so help us understand what haley's surge means and doesn't mean in a race that is so thoroughly dominate

By donald trump, I think that what mickey Hayley is doing is she is positioned herself as the best candidate for voters who do not want donald trump to be the republican nominee for president and donald trump is the clear front runner in this race. A majority of republicans want him to be the nominee, but many do not, and what nicky Healy is doing is something that's actually really common in presidential primaries, and if I could use a fancy,

term. For it, that term would be to call her a factional candidate as a candidate that appeals squarely to the wants and needs of a faction of a political party that is dissatisfied with the front runner of their own party and, if you think about it, even the strongest front runners at george, w bush in two thousand, a ronald reagan and Hillary Clinton. Don't perfectly appeal to everybody and, as a result, there is almost always an opening for the candidate that appeals most directly to that disaffected faction of a party and in this election that's nikki haley. But it will remind us of some of the historical factional candidate because I think that might be illuminating. Bernie sanders. Appealing to the democratic socialist left against a establishment moderate, like Hillary Clinton, rick Santorum appeal,

into the religious right against the establishment mormon from the northeast, like mitt romney, John K, sick in two thousand and sixteen the establishment moderate in that election against donald trump and ted cruz, howard dean ron, Paul Jesse jackson. I mean we could do this for almost every election, that there is a candidate who speaks to the needs of a part of the party that isn't satisfied by the front runner and, in some cases, outright oppose the front runner right away think about factional candidates, as a result might be to see them as repositories for voters' disillusion with their party's front runner. That's half of it, but it's worth remembering that they usually have organic and authentic appeal to these same voters. To you know, Jesse jackson is not just a candidate who is there for black voters who don't like Michael Dukakis

had a real connection with left, leaning, voters and african americans in the nineteen eighty four democratic primary rick Anton had real appealed, evangelicals he's night, some faker bernie sand his real appeal to democratic socialist, easy, true believer in they usually have both of those traits So how has the haley become the factional candidate success story in this republican primary in such a crowded field, where we anticipated that so many the republicans, might fill that rule and where she herself is a somewhat complicated figure. Rape is a former high ranking member of the trump administration. I think you're right, that he's a complicated figure, but I think that if you stepped back and

her whole career that she really does embody a more traditional kind of conservatism. That's really at odds with the trumpets brand of republican politics that we have seen over the last. For years. This is someone who, when she ran and was elected as governor of south carolina in two thousand and ten, she did support many conservative policies, but she ran as the child of indian american immigrants and her defining moment as governor was ultimately deciding to support, bring down the confederate flag from the state kaplan south carol after there was a mass shooting at a black church there and its worth, remembering that sheep vigorously endorsed Marco rubio in the republican primary and twenty six. Tina and that even one she joined the trump administration. As you and ambassador. She was not exactly parroting. The maggots talking points about foreign policy, and so, if you think about the things that anti trump republicans are looking for in terms of temperament,

forms of views on the issues in and particularly on the issues that define donald trump, like his views on immigration, has populist economics and its foreign policy Nicky Hayley is exactly the kind of camp they would be looking for right, you think she's been able to carve out a political identity separate from down from, even though she served in his administration. I want a zero win on an example of how she has managed to seize on issues in a way that distinguish her front from in this. Current republican primary campaign I think the easiest example is the way that she has talked about foreign policy in these debates. First of all, the american president needs dad more clarity. Thing. Do you know the difference between right and wrong? They need, and in particular, in these high profile clashes with the vague promise. What I know that we back doesn't understand if he wants to hear and ukraine to russia, he wants to let china eat. Taiwan

who has been acting as sort of the maga candidate onstage without donald trump there, Israel, Don't do that to friends what you do instead, as you have the backs of your friends, you produce blasted rama, swarming for being naive, and not seeing the connections between russia. In china and iran for his willingness to? Potentially reduce aid, Israel, a win Russia is a win for china. We have to know that ukraine is, first line of defence for us and very vigorously defended. All of the tenants of a neo conservative reaganite foreign policy. Look at what Clinton did today he killed proposal. This guy is a murderer and you are choosing a murderer or she's. Is this a defining issue for her in the campaign, and this is an issue that a lot of people who dislike trump really really care about? I just want to find a word that you have been using a little bit here, which is neo conservative

and correct me. If I'm wrong, what you mean here is a foreign policy approach that Harkin's back to an older, pre tromp Republican treated. And of being interventionist, seeing america's role as robust elbows out who needs us. Where do they need us? It's the opposite of trump's, more isolationist, america, first approach to foreign policy, that's what you mean exactly Michael and the key, is that she is holding the flag that these neo conservative republicans with a long tradition in the republican party. Wanna, see pick up and held on a debate stage What about domestic issues, how his she distinguishes us from trump and fuelled herself as the factional candidate? So I think perhaps appraisingly abortion is the best answer to that question. Thank you. Martha! I'm unapologetically pro life, not because the republican party tells me to be. She is pro life and she passed abortion

frictions. As governor of south carolina she's been very sceptical about a federal abortion van rate when it comes to a federal ban, let's be honest with the american people and say it will take sixty Senate votes. It will take a majority of the house, so in order to do that, let's find consensus. and she's argued. Instead, we should be looking for a consensus on the national stage on the issue. She's taking respectful and conciliatory tone toward voters were, choice and can't. We all agree that we are not what a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion. Let's treat this like the like a respectful issue that it is and humanize the situation and stop demonizing the situation, and I think that contrasts with the rest of the republican field in a lot of important ways that appeal to voters who don't support. Donald

A lot of people who are sceptical of trump are relatively moderate, including on abortion, and there are a lot of pro choice republicans out there, but it's not just about the issues is also about the tone. This kind of establishment friendly compromising moderate and conciliatory candidate is the sort of thing that a lot of voters want before, and they may not be a majority of republicans, but if you're the sort of person who doesn't like donald trump because of his conduct. This is exactly the breath of fresh air. That you're looking for from a republican presidential, candidate, but the conundrum for Nicky, Hayley and really every effective factional. Canada is the same things that make her appealing to independent, moderate voters,

Her are really imperfect, fit for the rest of a very conservative republican party and make it very challenging for it actually beat. Donald trump will be right back. this podcast is supported by constellation. We all want a cleaner brighter tomorrow and constellation leading the way constellation is the name number one producer of carbon free electricity and his working on new ways to create clean fuels like hydrogen, to reduce pollution and communities across amerika are energy. Future starts now and constellation has the experience in Oh yes and vision to move us ahead, power on america, learn more at constellation: energy dot com forward, slash power on. I gave my brother

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someone you care about, learn more about giving a new york times subscription as a gift at n Y times, dot com, slash gift, sunni, walk us through why nikki, Haley's success at being a factional candidate so far means that it's going to be so hard for her to seriously challenge trump, because I have to say your description of what she has been up to so far seems like a plan to try to mop up every republic. voter who dislikes tromp, of which there are very many within the republican party, there are a lot of them, but there aren't nearly enough of them to power. Winning republican presidential campaign. Michael, I mean if you just stepped back and look at the math here for a second. There are three big blocks of republican voters. One group what's got forty percent of the republican electorate is the trump MCA base. They ve supported him at every point. They support him today then there's another twenty percent.

self republicans, but doesn't like trump disagree on the issues strongly or disagrees with this personal character and conduct strongly. A lot of these people will consider voting for oh Biden in the general election, Nicky Healy is a very good pitch for that twenty percent. Then there's another forty percent of republican voters who, like trump bur, opened a voting for someone else, some of them, like I'm, a lot on the issues and alike as personality as much. Some of them may like his personality with this report on a few issues- and you know it's time look at that forty percent and say that those are voters than Nicky Hayley can win over, but they're much more conservative than the kind of independent moderate Biden Yes, republicans or independence that mickey Hayley is often winning right now,

and the more that Nicky hayley does to secure her base of support among the people, who don't like donald trump, very much, the more she could repelled the persuadable voters who do like donald trump and who support him on all kinds of issues. You're saying, as Nicky really becomes known, becoming a trump alternative and that message gets out more and more and she finds more more ways to reinforce, said she's going to be trusting herself more sharply with trump and therefore crystallizing for many republican primary voters, why they like trump and why they don't like her. In other words, the more she will push away. That forty percent whore little wishy washy on trump and clarify for them why they might actually really like in many of these forty percent, think the republican party should oppose immigration or form many of them oppose aid to ukraine enough. So if Nicky hayley

a campaign that pro immigration or pro aid to ukraine and relatively moderate many of those voters who are open to voting against trump. But like him, are going to decide that rather have donald trump initiating a weight of projects. This math, And this understanding that you have been explaining forward through the next couple of months and the primaries. What start in early january, and perhaps you can do that by calling back to a previous factional candidate who looked a lot like, key hayley. I have someone in mind, and that is because I owe America more than she has ever owed me that I am a candidate for president of the united states, John Mccain in two thousand, who is the factional candidate visa v george w bush exactly and george w bush is really the only candidate in

history of modern political polling who, position and the republican primary looks a lot like donald trump station. Today, being it's interesting to see the bush campaign at this point, he has luxury, because he has such a lead in the polls that he can spend his time. Looking toward the general election in reaching both tromp swing, an blush we're pulling over sixty percent nationwide they had a lot of broad appeal in the republican party. Bush wasn't running for a third republican nomination, but it would be. The third wash republican nomination expresses a certain amount of confidence on bushes part that he is known by the family? He keeps for one thing: the ad and John Mccain at this time started out in that in new Hampshire. He wasn't considered one of the strongest threats to george w bush nationwide. governor george w bush, the governor of texas and senator John Mccain, the Republicans senator from texas,

from hours on a bad deal they want to stay over? I don't think I'm allowed in texas, but like Nicky, Hayley John Mccain could squarely appeals are the kinds of voters who are dissatisfied with george w bush and interestingly, they look a lot like the voters who are dissatisfied with donald for unless we get independent, reconstitute the old rag in them crash who didn't like george w bush in two thousand, relatively secular northern moderate college, educated republicans, who just didn't love a southern conservative, evangelical texan, like George w bush, doesn't mean they hated george w bush, but he was never going to be a perfect fit for an independent voter in new Hampshire right. But I'll tell you what the republican party has lost its way and so what ended up habit? Well, I'm the most important thing that happened is that John Mccain just kept gaining and gaining in new Hampshire, very much. I think we finally have a

without a margin of error and maintained in just one, new Hampshire. He wanted bit and we have sent a powerful message to washington that chain is coming and it propelled him to a new level nationwide. He cleared the field of serious competition. The other candidates got out and john and ultimately one seven states in the luncheon. Even though a few months earlier, he had been losing sixty five to ten in the polish nation. Wide right be caught fire. He caught fire. He won a bunch of states, but he didn't come especially close. One of the nomination and in the end

John Mccain, ran into the same problem that every factional candidate does, which is that a appeal that is targeted at a faction of a political party and succeeds at consolidating. It will often struggle to win over the majority of the part right and he was unable to break that wall. So if we extrapolate from that example, Nikki haley She replicates John Mccain's success, which is by no means a sordid, but if she does she might when new hampshire, she might quite logically, when her home state of south carolina. This is her best case yeah. She could go on and win seven states and it would probably create a real impression of success and viability as a challenger to trump. I'm saying this because I'm a journalist and we can often lose our bearings but you're, saying based on the math of being a factual candidate based on the model of John Mccain, it's

very likely to then stall out right. I mean remember, what's going on here, Michael, if this is not a party of modern establishment types anymore, it's a very conservative and populist party and Nicky Hayley is not a very conservative populist. That fact is exactly what lets her when twenty percent and its the same fact, that means you have a very hard time to be generous winning fifty percent Is there any scenario where Healy could somehow shock everyone, and do more than when seven states, but keep going and truly. become somehow competitive with trump or is you're saying, and maybe I'm just to dance mathematically, Michael, that's just not possible, so just shut down we'll. Let let me to start with a historic answer, which is that these factional came, it's almost always lose and the only time on these factional kinda to win like they.

We'll show that they weren't factional candidate right, so Nicky hayley were to win the nomination with the campaign that she's run. To this point, it would be tantamount to demonstrating that she's, not a mere faction, that the things that she believes and that she represents are actually much more broadly appealing the republican party. Then I'm getting credit for today. It would be an indication that much of what I told you, a raw had not ass, yet somehow overcame it, and if that happens- and you know we can have this conversation, I've been wrong before by inference is based on. Poland have been wrong before, of course, but historically speaking for a candid like Nicky hayley to win, it would be a sign that we're just wrong about the breadth of her appeal and of her faction today. That said particular election. There is this big asterisk about donald trump legal challenges. I think that we do have to continue to offer that caviar as the campaign gets under way. Those challenges will become more real, as he actually gets into a criminal trial. I think we have to at least allow the possibility, however, small, that this will change the race, even though it has not to this point right, but

other than that, you know, there's not really much of a reason to think that you know a moderate establishment type figure in today's republic and party as well, positioned to win the rubble and primary electorate just now, but there parties, and so in the end, the story, mickey alias success story of this episode is That is yet another way of under ending trumps, historic anomalous and near total dominance of the republican party, because the math of haley's success at attracting the primary voters who just like trump, still ends with her very likely losing to him and losing really soundly over the next couple of months, even right now, Nikki Haley is losing to trump by, like fifty points in the polls, Michael. What she is doing to this point is impressive, given where she started, but it leaves her.

very very very far from seriously challenging donald trump will aim at Thank you very much. Thank you michael rate, to be with you mickey corrupt. This is the on Wednesday night. The fourth republican presidential debate seem to confirm Nicky helios place as the leading alternative to donald trump throughout the night rival candidate, who are now trailing her in the polls, including rhonda centres. Envy quanta swami repeatedly attacked her a dynamic that Healy appeared to relish, I love all the attention fella thank you for that ok

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which is under growing pressure to demonstrated its operations in Gaza are working said. It is killed at least five key Hamas military leaders and roughly half of hamas is battalion commanders among the leaders who have been killed according to Israel or the head of Hamas is aerial division. In response, Hamas confirm that several of its key leaders have been killed and on wednesday, former house speaker, Kevin Mccarthy, who was ousted by fellow republicans in october, said he would resign from congress at the end of the year a full year before his term is up. That decision could further impact.

Republicans already slim majority in the house, which is currently just three seats following the expulsion of republican george santos of new york. Today's episode was produced by robs it go Mary, Wilson and chin live with help from dying, when it was edited by rachel. Quester contains original music by marrying Lozano willingly, mr indian power. And was engineered by alyssa moxley. Our theme music is Jim wondered and then landfill of spent thanks to marry, massillon the

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