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just how seriously to take the threat I spoke with my colleague Moscow Bureau Chief Anti, between us. It's Tuesday February. and this is really starting to feel like the scariest moment for Europe. Maybe in decades there is talk of a history, Rick potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia and casualty counts that could reach into the tens of thousands leaders across Europe are shuttling around the continent. Desperately trying to find a different solutions that there is not an invasion, and so we wanted to check and with you on exactly where everything stands for all the major players: Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Europe. Let's start with Russia and its true build up

around Ukraine. What exactly is the state of that at this very moment? Well, it's very ominous, and it's gotten worse since we last spoke, Russia now has more than a hundred ten thousand by some estimates. As many as a hundred thirty thousand true encircling Ukraine on three sides and important thing here is not just the number of troops were talking about, but the fact that there are on the move their getting closer to the mortar. After a few weeks ago we saw a lot of equipment positioned in the area near the border, but not enough personnel to operate all those tanks and are too Wii systems and rocket launchers I've a lot of those soldiers showing up from all across the country being slow in coming in on long trains The latest thing is we're now seeing these forces that were

section two hundred miles or more away from the border getting closer setting up these ten camps very close to the border, then a few dozen miles in these very makeshift conditions. A soft cited tents in this no in the mud. It's the sorts of conditions that take a toll on morale. They take a toll on military readiness and, Another reason why folks are so concerned right now. You know this intensity of this build up. It's not something that Russia, you would think will be able to sustain for more than a few weeks, so we're getting close to a point where Putin will have to decide whether to use these troops in some kind of military operation,

start pulling them back, Would you are describing sound like the final stages of preparation for the war at the initial stages, not the middle stages, but the final stages of what it would take to invade Ukraine yeah the keyword. There is final. You know by some estimates. Russia has seventy percent or so of the forces it wouldn't. in place to mount a full scale, invasion of Ukraine, and it could get that final, thirty percent in place very quickly. I air lifting troops to the border area and when you say full scale, you mean invade Ukraine entirely from border to border. Take over the country right. really the worst case scenario that people are talking about of Europe's biggest military invading and taking over Europe's second

his country, a country if more than forty million people, an injustice reminder if Putin does invade Ukraine and with seventy percent of the troops he needs now very close to the ukrainian border. That seems quite possible. What would be his rationale? Well Ukraine has declared a desire and intention to join NATO. Ukraine, of course, is a former member of the Soviet Union, and to put in that's a red line, she described and NATO allied Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia Security, a Ukraine with western troops in it with western military equipment to put an end really to the russian security. A lead and establishment more broadly, would be a grave threat to Russia, the gravity, the Uno. They see NATO as

Anti Russian Alliance, Ukraine shares and extremely long border with Russia in the densely populated south west of the country and when we see now that this huge troop deployment, one way to read it is put in saying I Drawing this red line, potent communicating to NATO and the Eu S. Don't you dare take UK and I'm willing to fight a war over it, but on the flip side, perhaps if the? U S and the West were able to provide some kind of, guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, put mistake Well then, she might pull back you're saying this massive troop other could be at its core? Negotiating tactic could be a bluff in which putin- really wants to get assurances that Ukraine will never joined NATO and if it gets those he could draw down the troops, but from what you're describing of these troop build ups,

And how expensive and taxing the yard? This would be a very expensive bluff, absolutely a very expensive bluff, a very dangerous bluff, because, obviously, when you ve got so many troops concentrated on the border. A lot and go wrong right, but yet that's how a lot of folks are reading it. Let's turn to the United States, which, over the past few days, has been a series of very scary and very public projections about the costs of a full scan. russian evasion of Ukraine. If it were to happen when you walk us through those. So what the? U S has said- and this is an assessment that they shared with Congress last week that our colleagues in Washington reported on

if Putin were to go ahead with a full invasion of Ukraine that would lead to the potential deaths of twenty five thousand two, fifty thousand civilians of Ukrainians of unison. We assume young people. Yes, it's Ukraine is a country of forty four million people, so yeah the! U S forecast us five thousand to twenty five thousand deaths among the ukrainian military. Three thousand ten thousand deaths among the russian military. Millions of refugees pouring out of Ukraine into trees like Poland, that are members of the European Union, which would be of enormous live. displacement and incredibly disruptive to Europe. Absolutely I mean overall, what we're talking about here again in the worst case scenario, but it really would be the largest war in Europe since

World were to allow in any time does the USA how it came up with these pre terrifying estimates, because when we have all learned to be sceptical of government. Actions in the run up to any potential conflict over the past decade. Yes, so the? U S says this comes from intelligent sources that their sources and methods can be fully divulged, and Russia has already called these estimates mad and scare mongering and, of course, continues to deny any plans to invade Ukraine, but in and analysts looking at just commercial satellite imagery and the footage of russian troops movements. Your increasingly seen on Tik Tok and Other social media here in Russia are they're coming to a similar conclusion. independent analysts also concerned, and

reality. Is you know? Yes, if if and it's a big if, but if there were a full scale invasion by Russia of Ukraine There would be a massive amount of human suffering. There is no doubt about that will be right back. This pack has disappointed by I share. Is the ship

to a low carbon economy, is changing the way people invest. I share sustainable e t s help you position your portfolio to manage sustainability, related opportunities and risks such as climate change, get your share of progress at I shares dot com, slash sustainable visit. I shares that kind of your prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks fees fences and other information you should reading consider carefully before investing risk includes principle ass. There is no guarantee The fund will exhibit positive, are favourable sustainability characteristics prepared by Blackrock Investments, LLC Brian Reed, you might know me as the host of the pot guest S town, I'm homes aside, you don't know me, but Brian line we tend to solve a mystery which all started when a brown paper on flop showed up on the desk of a city councillor in Birmingham England, my Tom and may him inside the envelope was a strange letter that lead to suppose it plot by islamic extremists to take over this?

schools, the document exploded in the national media, the Prime Minister got involved, educators were banned, counter terror laws were tightened, but no one ever figure out who the lead in the first place, so we tried and people were not happy, give us a bit details about a situation which is particularly important that I don't, from cereal production and the New York Times, it's the Trojan horse affair, a mystery and eight parts. You goes into the whole thing. Reverie get your pockets. So I went on let's turn to you, ass allies in Europe. Where a russian invasion of Ukraine would hit much closer to home. How are they responded to this? Build up of troops.

On the ukrainian border entities. Dire. U S, projections of casualties and refugees, so I think the story of what Europe's done in this crisis so far is a kind of division over what to do, and just how serious this threat really is. The United Kingdom has very much adopted the american approach of shouting from the rooftops that this is an extremely dangerous situation supplying intelligence about russian threats to Ukraine. Meanwhile, on the continent, France and Germany have taken a much more cautious approach. France has struck out on its own diplomatic initiative to try to solve the situation peacefully. Emmanuel Micron, the President of France, is in Moscow. Right now is

speaking to you, at the Kremlin meeting with Putin, Germany has been struggling to gain its bearings in foreign policy after the departure of Angela Merkel last here- and Germany in particular, has come under a fair amount of criticism for not being clear on the kinds of sanctions that would come if Putin were to invade. So one of the important things to keep in mind here is that even as the West tries to project unity, not everyone is on the same page as the. U S is when it comes to. What to do. Next so explain now. Why would a country specially Germany, which we think of his being the leader of Europe on almost every issue, Why would Germany resist being very vocal and forceful about this threat from Russia? There's a number of them?

there said play first. I there is real divergence on that question of whether the? U S, approach of really highlighting the threat, actually helps or hinders the goal of preventing a military escalation. And the second is you know: Germany is physically much closer to Russia, of course, than the. U S is it has much closer economic ties as an example, there is the Nord stream two gas pipeline that huge and controversial project to carry russian gas directly to Germany, under the Baltic Sea Germany's leaders say it's an important economic project for their country, so in a sense, there's a lot more at stake here for Germany and for other countries in so it is safe to say that a country like Germany may in its heart of hearts, b as alarmed as the U S is about Putin, although they may not be saying it, but they might actually feel that.

But does not have the luxury of being as aggressive towards Russia as the. U S does yeah it's just such a complicated issue. For Germany, that I think it makes them a lot more cautious, so power european countries viewing America's approach in this moment. Are they annoyed by it? Did they think, is counter productive Well, I think there's been a certainly in recent weeks. In the last couple of months, there has been a lot of scepticism in Europe over this. U S approach there ve been critic, saying this approach of talking so loudly about the threat and talking about the worst case scenario. So much may perhaps only worsen the situation, I escalating the rhetoric escalating the overall, deeply attic environment. That Putin is looking at as he makes this decision, but I would also say that in the last week or two I think you're starting to see a shift in Europe where

though, are recognised. there too. The seriousness of the situation. I think you're, seeing that this week, not just with microns visit to Moscow, but also with Chancellor left Schulz Meeting with Biden on Monday in Washington. So suddenly european leaders are you're suggesting coming closer. to where the? U S, leadership as they are you I'd still. I think the rhetoric is still not as alarmist in the continental european capitals as it is in Washington and in London, but the level of concern there is certainly rising as well. And finally, we have Ukraine itself how his its behaviour changed over the past few weeks, as everything that we have just described has unfolded. Well, President elect

he has been very critical? Two of this? U S approaches blamed the? U S for hyping the thread. He said that as far as ukrainian officials can tell the level of the threat that Russia poses, which of course, Russia's already did indeed Ukraine back in two thousand fourteen and re continues to support pro russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, so so lens keys. Take has been this. Let's not panic. Let's not hype the situation we ve been having and dealing with the threat from Russia for the last eight years and we're going to continue to do so. That seems very counter intuitive. To me I mean you would think that the leader, country that surrounded on three sides by a hundred and ten These hundred and thirty thousand russian troops would want the world to be banging every patent pan available and

putting a spotlight on the situation and making sure his whole country was on high alert. Well, president's Lansky of Ukraine is, of course, in an extraordinarily difficult spot. He doesn't want the ukrainian population to be in a state of panic, doesn't want Foreign investors to be pulling out, you know the ukrainian economy already has suffered as a result of all this concern, and the landscape is worried that the? U S by talking so much about the worst case scenario about the dire thread, could actually be making the situation even worse and worse for Ukraine or worse for Ukraine and perhaps escalating the temperature of this whole thing to the point that it becomes even more dangerous and I'm really struck by the fact that so far the loudest and most worried voice. In all of this is the Eu S, even though the? U S is the furthest away,

Ukraine and Russia, and seemingly, has the least at stake compared with Ukraine and Europe? Well, that's a correct observation, but remember that Russia is most fixated on the? U S in all of this, the Kremlin sees Wash in turn, as the entity pulling the strings in Ukraine and Europe. So you know if you're Putin. You must really like the fact that at this moment, with this military threat, there These divisions that have been exacerbated and that have emerged between the? U S and its european allies. Between the USA and its partners, Ukraine Putin has ready made life harder for the Bite administration in trying to bring the stern alliance back together and he's.

Ready, succeeded in sewing further disruption within Ukraine as well here you're saying that is a victory for prudence, no matter what happens which aunt on reminds me of what we seem to learn about prudent after he interfered in the sixteen, U S, election back, then when we ask our colleagues what was prudence motivation for doing that, they told us that, to a large degree, Putin's biggest objective. always is too so division and to so Kay ass among his adversaries to make them weaker and less. stable, which makes Russia stronger by comparison- and it sounds like He'S- We accomplished that in a way when it comes to the relationship. between the: U S and Europe, the western alliance, as you call it, dividing them over Ukraine in a way that gives Russia the upper hand. Absolutely let's go

Amber Putin is playing a very weak handed in many ways. His economy is stagnant. The population here in Russia is shrinking. Industry is not very in a number of fields. But with that, we can't he does right on uncertainty on chaos. As you said, he is willing to take risks and go to a length in terms of what his military does. What is intelligence services do, that is western adversaries are not willing to go to that gives putting this kind of asymmetric advantage that he right now yet, and is taking advantage of. But that makes me wonder wooden an actual full scale. Invasion of Ukraine potentially take a weekend and not make a stronger, but actually just make it weaker, overextended absolutely and Emma diving. That's really the crux of why folks in Ukraine

Europe, and also here inside Russia by and large, continue to doubt that Putin would actually go ahead with this kind of full scale invasion, because that would really represent a risk and an extension of what he's doing that would go far beyond anything he's done so far I mean invading Ukraine would represent a risk orders of magnitude greater than taking Crimea or intervening in Syria or interfere. In the? U S, elections, you know were really talking about something on a totally different scale and really the question is: has something changed here and Russia? You know how things really changed to an extent that Putin would be ready now into and twenty two to take such a new level of risk right, too take his regular playbook of sowing chaos and transform it into a playbook of

creating the largest land offensive since war to the very, very different kind of strategy absolutely, and he certainly does have a million we now that's much more powerful, much more modernized Dan. It was even back in two thousand fourteen, but still a lot of people continue to doubt that Putin would be willing to take that's your risk we'll. Given all this uncertainty, what do you think of as the date on the calendar when we will really start to know which way this may go whether this is a very expensive bluff whether this is about getting the. U S because on Russia and give prudent what he wants, whether those be any real war are not well the western military analysts. I talked to say we are really talking about a matter of weeks that the kind of course posture that Putin

undertaken here is the kind of thing where he's going to. Go where no go moment are really at a decision point in the coming weeks. In let's say have you worry or March one date on the calendar, that's worth pointing out a stab. You worry twentieth. Russia has these massive snap exercises with Belarus that are scheduled to run from February tenth twentieth. Thousands of russian troops have been shipped all the way across the country from the Far EAST and Siberia into Bela ruse to take part in these exercises, and on February the twentieth we're gonna see if those but go back to their bases or if they stay in Belarus. So that will be one thing to look ahead and another thing that happens on February twenty. It is the alleged picks and in Beijing and, of course, the friendship with China,

has been one big priority for Putin even flew to Beijing last week to meet with president. She jumping in person in see the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Some people think hard to imagine, Putin launching an offensive during the Olympics, because it would upstage his friend she and after February twenty that'll be another obstacle to an offensive, that'll be off the table so, I think, really even by the end of this month, will have a much better sense of where things are heading, and whether we're looking at war, the war a bluff. Yes exactly Thank you very much appreciated. Thank you, Michael

during a news conference on Monday at the White House, press. And binding, and the new Chancellor of Germany, Olaf, shawls, sought to pay down any divisions between the two countries how to respond to Russia's build up of troops around Ukraine. Russia makes Joyce to further invade Ukraine. We are, only ready and all of NATO is ready. Nevertheless, points Virgins emerged, binding said that if Russia invade Ukraine, he would seek to stop them but many of the Nord stream to gas pipeline between Russia in Germany a step that shorts find to endorse, even when pressed by reporters Today, to turning off and pulling the plug on Nord stream to you didn't mention ain't, you haven't mentioned it

We are absolutely united and we will not taking different steps. We will do the same steps and they will be very very hard to Russia, and they were very back. This podcast is supported by the high stakes new season of billions on Showtime, as might Prince, takes its place on the axe capital thrown he's determined to shake up the game for Czech row. New money means no mercy and he's got prince in his crosshairs, as alliances shift enforces rally only one things for certain wealth means war, starring, Paul, Giamatti Corey stole a Maggie Seth catch. The news season of billions now streaming only on Showtime

what else you need tender day on Monday in the governors of both New Jersey and Delaware said they would end the request. Let's students and teachers wear masks in schools to protect again covered nineteen, the governor cited declining rates of infection and growing rates of child vaccination, the decisions are the latest sign that elected officials, even in states hardest hit by the pandemic, are encouraging the public to learn to live with the virus. And everyone, I have no idea how to start off this video properly. So I just can't get started. I have tested positive for Covid nineteen Vincent Chill. The american figures competing at the Olympic Games in Beijing said that he had tested positive for the corona virus and wooden

participate in the men's. Singles competition that Big today seems pretty unreal, that of all the people. What happened to myself? I have been doing everything in my power to stay free of covert since then. Part the pandemic. Joe became the latest olympic athletes to test positive. Despite strict health was put in place by the chinese government to keep the games. who did free three members of the? U S, Bob setting team have also tested positive, really lost count of the number of times a in an emotional video, Joe described, the pit of learned

that he would have to sit out a competition that he had spent years preparing for. I have a feeling that had gone on for too long rashly closed the sound before before he becomes even more of an emotional rug, tidies episode was produced by Stella Ten and Robert Jemison with help from Rachel quest her. It was edited by Angela Davis Lynn contained original music from there It was on our indian power and was engineered by Chris. Would our theme is by Jim blundered and then let us

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