Thank you, no diamonds, prob we not as much as you think did you know stone is connected to ten million people around the world over the law two decades from canada to africa, to australia the net diamond industry is transformed local communities from which the diamonds originate, with health care, education and infrastructure, and is committed to continued progress. Each of their natural diamonds promises more sparkling future for generations to come for so many more natural diamond truths and natural diamonds dot com. Slash. Thank you. from the new york times. I'm like a bar of this is a daily. This case has problems from a kick out the longer I look at it, but the other problems. I sit in the

since Donald trump was arraigned on thirty four felony charges. I think it's strong, prosecutorial tradecraft. This is a well written indictment. The debate about whether the case against him is either a week for strong has only intensified I meant is insufficient on its face. It was just a bunch of papers, worse staple together. These facts are not that squishy. To me, this seems like a straightforward business records fraud case. I think this is even weaker than I feared. It would be if God tapes you ve got records, you ve got a recipe for a very strong kings. This is crap that a free law student shooting up front of a damn drug. Today, my colleague, Charlie savage, has been closely studying the case to understand which side is right,

it's Wednesday April, twelfth. early when Donald trump was indicted. Last week we were very eager to finally look inside this case that the manhattan attorney alvin brag has been building, because we always had a pretty good sense that he was going after trump for false buying business records that was kind of the base of the case it is a set of misdemeanours, but we knew that brag would need to prove a second crime in order to make those charges turn into felonies. And then the indictment comes down we don't get an answer to what that second crime is going to be. We shouldn't have an answer and that's why it feels like their such a lively debate playing

about whether this case is strong or whether its weak and that's why You come and because you are a very smart about legal questions and prosecutions. So with all that in mind, where shall we start well, let's start by breaking this down as you'd just mentioned, normally keeping fraud falsifying business records under a new york. Penal law is a misdemeanor to make it into a felony that crime had to be committed with the intention of concealing or committing some second crime, and so the question hovering over all this for weeks, leading up to the ceiling in this indictment has been. What is that? Second crime? What is Alvin brags theory of the case to turn a trivial misdemeanor case to a serious felony case he can,

bring season and solve the unveiling of de indictment and the statement of facts when tromp was arraigned was our first opportunity to really see what is his theory of the. and there was new insight in there and some things that had not been talked about before and others in time it was maddening. It was infuriating because he still was not clear about it. There is nowhere in here where he says this becomes a felony, because x rays becomes a felony becomes. Why so we to infer what he's getting at both from the statement of facts that accompanied the indictment in statements in the courtroom and his press conference. But before we infer too much What should we make of the fact, Charlie attorney has choose, not to tell us what he thinks, second crime is, or which potential second crime he's likely to pursue well

He was asked. Why don't you just tell us at his press conference afterwards, he said water. doesn't require me to this stage, so there's that it is possible there is some strategic advantage to this. It's possible that this is some kind of trial, balloon situation, he's throwing out concepts and wants to see because there some novelties surrounding this case, what do block professors in prosecutors and talking heads on tv say about it and there's some kind of high minding. They will help refine his own theory where what appears to be actually maybe multiple alternate theories fascinating put forward. But that's just my speculation. I I feel like he auto ought to have told us. I would have liked to have known chance to do it. for us district at her from me, really that is now its importance and yelling. My curiosity! Yes, yes, yes! So in the meantime that leaves us still trying to figure out what the second crime will be

I would mention that the indictment did reveal a few new insights into what brag is up to. So let's talk about what we think stone everything we now know about what this crime is likely to be and how strong or how weak that second crime might end up being, legally speaking, So in general it looks like there's going to be too broad categories of crime that he'll be pointing to or gesturing and as a preliminary matter, he doesn't have to prove that the second crime occurred. He only has to prove that trump intended for a second crime to be concealed or advanced when he caused the trump organization's business records to be I urgently entered, and it looks like there's two broad categories of things: he's gonna gesture at one is campaign financed crime. and the other is intended false statements to tax authorities. So, let's start turley with campaign finance

how easy or how hard do we think it will be for brag to make that the second crime back into that we need to quickly or what we're talking about here. Events of this takes us back to the twenty sixteen campaign, the final months a porn star, Stormy Daniels has come to the trump world and said I'm gonna talk about this extramarital affair. Your candidate had with me shortly after his current wife gave birth to his son and Michael coin, trumps fixer and lawyer sends her a hundred and thirty thousand dollars october, twenty sixteen to keep quiet through the end of the election. This raises a question: was that a campaign finance expenditure intended to affect the election? Keep this information from voters

was that a personal life expenditure into this information from millennia trumpet from baron from his son, inherently murky in twenty seventeen crumple, reimburses Michael Cohen, for that money So if- and this is the thing Alhambra would need to prove as part of all this, if he can commence a jury that that was a campaign expenditure, then those fine, he'll transactions were regulated or should have. been regulated by campaign, fannys law and at me, that Michael Cohen made in unlawfully large contribution to the two thousand and sixteen trump campaign. Individuals can't give one hundred and thirty thousand dollars to someone else's campaign right and in two thousand and seventeen in trump reimburses him. He should have reported that publicly on his effie see campaign spending filings, which he did not so a lot of that turns on was that in fact, a campaign expenditure or personal life one an inherently ambiguous question:

Let's talk about, why that's mpeg, assuming if a hush money payment is made weeks or a presidential election it seems intuitive. If I'm or juror that it's connected to that election mean the prospect of having they're, like that, come out right before election seems It will be very, very embarrassing and exactly the reason to pay someone off. So what makes that so difficult for so the strong part about it is the timing. Apparently Daniels had tried to get money, but for. I was rebuffed in so suddenly now in october, that were a couple weeks from the election and there's an uproar over the famous access hollywood tape, rights, trump brag about groping women questions, whether of Angelica christians, some particular going to abandon him. Maybe this porn stars accusation of an chernobyl affair would just destroy their campaign in

when she gets paid when before she did not. That would be what the prosecution was ended. The jury. This was obviously about the campaign, but the defence team can say no The campaign this was gonna, get more intention, but what he really wanted to do was avoid personal embarrassment. He didn't want his wife to find out. In one has said, to find out. He says it's not true anyway, but it was this gross and he just wanted it go away, and Is there proof beyond reasonable doubt that the motivation was a versus b, got it looking at it from the outside. It could be both right. It could be both at the same time bright, and so there is something messy about campaign era, payments to a mistress that is not as black and white as most of what we like to see in the courtroom right, because you're saying, in order for this to become the sex crime that makes this all felony the deer They have to prove its related to the campaign, but I'm all hearing. You say if I'm reading, between the lines that unless there is

really hard evidence and making this up, but a recording. Where trump says to Michael Cohen, make this go away. Wait about evangelical voters in the action happening in two weeks. Then it's gonna be here: to get inside his head and know whether the president was were concerned about the personal dimension of this or more concerned about the political side of it. If campaign finance crimes are the second crime, the turns bookkeeping fraud into a felony and yet still need to show that in that's why Daniels earlier efforts to get money and being rebuffed for her testimony would be important to that. The tests. the money of Michael Cohen, in what is conversations are with from surrounding that payment, and then the reimbursements will be important to that. Was this information about elections, or is this a conversation about a wife thing that would show trumps motivation. That's the sword of evidence that a prosecutor would need to put forward to show

was done because of an election and not because of a personal life are not solely because of personal life. Charlie. I will call that Michael Cohen was convicted of his role in this same hush, money, payment scheme, we're talking about and that campaign finance Was one of the reasons why and I wonder if we should interpret that as increasing the odds that the district attorney is likely to get trump on a similar campaign. Financed charge It would make this all a felony to people both evolved in the same scheme, ones already the jail over this since the day. see that, as strong evidence that is likely to work against trump as well. If you talk to campaign financed law experts who are sceptical of this theory, the brag seems to be playing with. They are also sceptical of that conviction. Of cohen, and the reason for that is that prosecutors were

being a variety of charges against cohen, most of which had nothing to do with. This was other sorts of financial crimes and he was pleading guilty. He was not going to trial. He was not fighting. Those charged so they throw in this campaign finance one and he agrees to plead guilty to it as part of this negotiated package in so that It was never really tested in have you never had someone standing up to a jury and saying no? No! No! This was about his wife. This was about his kid. He didn't want them to hear about it. Doesn't that reasonable doubt to you, mister and missus jurors, and so it superficially looks like it's been established, but maybe not that's their point of view on that charge right has been truly tested in an adversarial prosecution defence environment. Exactly ok so we should understand the campaign finance second crime scenario as one that on paper looks like me

bees it approved as olaf circumstantial evidence, but in reality, in the court room it seems I could actually a bit of a challenge. That's right and remember. There was a very famous case, it's kind of like this. There was brought against John Edwards former democratic senator in two thousand eight presidential aspirant, evolving money paid to a woman that he had not just had an affair with, but who had had his child right and whether that was a campaign, finance crime to sorta, pay her living expenses and keep her quiet while he was still seeking the democratic nomination for president in two thousand and eight, and when that, they went to trial, he was acquitted on one charge and the jury hung on the retina prosecutors decided not to try again and so that you know that case was a little different in some details. Payments to her kept happening after he had withdrawn from the race, and that was one reason. It was even work here,

but it does illustrate this is not an easy charge to bring campaign. Finest charges related to money to a mistress? It's just a story he situation bright and there's another wrinkle here and what is it and that has to do with federal law and state law. Remember this is a state criminal case. This is the prosecutor charging violations of a state law against bookkeeping fraud, but federal law rate generally is what regulates presidential elections right and so to the extent he's looking towards campaign finance as that second crime. That turns this. state misdemeanor into a state felony, is he going to invoke a federal crime? A federal law can state prosecutor do that? Was thither written

to encompass laws that are not felonies in new york, but her felonies and some other system of government is an untasted issue. So these are things that have given people anxiety about the strength of his case about its novelty about the risk of theories. That brag seems to be relying as he puts forward. But there was new information that came out last week suggests The brag might be bolstering is case with another potentially stronger theory of the second crime, The all the way back. When doktor posse jani at Dana farmer cancer institute showed how

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on the daily, we tell personal stories in part to help all of us better understand how current events shape real people's lives our team is able to put in this kind of time and commitment to a single story. Thanks, skype is at the new york times. So, if you we keep hearing stories like bees. The best way you can help us make them as by subscribing to the new york times. Thank you for drawing up first category in this basket of potential second crimes campaign finance clearly is precarious. So, let's turn to the second one. What is it? The second category of potential crime that could to elevate bookkeeping, fried from a misdemeanor to a felony, has nothing to do with came here, finance. It has to do with taxes and lying to tax authorities. This was not something that had received a lot of attention leading up to the unfeeling of the arrangement

the day of the unfeeling. Last tuesday he had a sort of do a dumpster dive through these statement of facts, the comments made on the side in the press conference and in the courtroom to see there the seeds or being planted to say that even you don't buy this campaign. Finance thing. Dear jury, there's a whole other category of potential crime. They could still get you across the line, so to recall The elements of this not only did Michael Cohen wireless hundred thirty thousand the stormy daniels in october of twenty sixteen, but he was reimbursed by the trump organization over the course of two thousand and seventeen and in it's records. The trump organization said that was for legal services that he was performing in two thousand and seventeen

pursuant to a retainer- and we know from the case that there was no retainer arousal and there was no, it was ally and it was not for seat legal services performed in twenty seventeen. It was to reimburse him for this payment he had made out of his own pocket and twenty sixteen, and on top of that, it wasn't just bursting him. A hundred thirty thousand dollars. It was real. Using him, basically twice that, as he was going to it appears, report stream of money or giving every month into his bank account from the trump organization as if it were income for some pr service that he had something he had earned in two thousand and seventeen, which means he was going to have to pay tax. says on it, and so according to prosecutors, to make him holes already up with honour and thirty thousand hours. At the end of all this, there pay him more essentially laundering the stream of money. So it looks like one thing. Even though, was another thing which is basically tat because what you're describing is them misrepresentation of payments as taxable

income and so suddenly, the second crime that we're now contemplating is lying to the government lying to the local tax authority new york. What could be both federal and state heart tax authorities right, there's go! There's you file taxes to both and we all know it again. What brags theory and evidence is here. We don't know yes, the trump organization issued ten ninety, nine nine employment compensation form for payments to call in it seventeen and, if so, what it said, but is also worth about one more complexity. This isn't complex enough. We need more complexity about this because you said actually two different crimes. Just now, like you said, tax fraud and then Another point you said line to tax authorities: these aren't the same thing interesting tat,

Fraud is paying less taxes, usually than we actually o, whereas line to tax authorities is a subset of the crime of giving false information to the government and when it comes to tax fraud. This is a kind of funny situation. If you think about he's not under reporting is incomes. Lead has a smaller tax bill and therefore cheating the government of new york out of some of the tax revenue, to which widgets rightfully entitled he's over reporting as income so in new york is ending up with more tax income than it otherwise would If everything was on the up and up but separate whatever the weirdness of that it is a crime in new york law to submit false information to the state government right so I have to say this looks like it would be an easy and definitely easier. Second crime than campaign finance, too. stab wish for Alvin bragged dossier, based on the fact that you know when you report things to a tax authorities, it creates a pretty significant,

paper trail. So am I right in thinking that this would be relatively easy thing to pursue where is it actually secretly hard like everything else? In this case, why would certainly say easier easier in a while seems to sidestep some of the complex issues with it I'm paying finance route? We still don't know what evidence brag has we don't actually know if there's a paper trail, we No, how he might try to convince a jury. The tromp was intending at the time the bookkeeping fraud to deceive tax authorities right, but remember that Alan brag doesn't apparently have to do is put forward. One theory o the climb was this: oh, the crime was that, as it was explained to me by former assistant district attorney's conversion in new york law, he can give alternate theories to the jury

simultaneously. Maybe it was this. Maybe it was that maybe was federal campaign finance, maybe was state campaign finance. Maybe it was in intentions deceive federal or state tax authorities, and that he'll probably say it's all of the above all the above redundancy get us across the finnish. to this being felony rather than misdemeanor, and as long as the jury de jure roars are individually convinced by any one of those they can vote. That as a felony, that's really interesting, eurasian the possibility that of the twelve jurors give us up. Your five might think that it was a campaign, finance violation that gets this all to be a felony and seven might think it was a tax issue as long as they think that this is a felony and they vote that way. That's why they don't all in theory, have to even agree

I think you're putting your finger Michael on something that is very interesting and complicated about this. If it's right, the brag is moving towards putting forward an array of alternative theories, and saying he believes all them, but the joyous needs to believe one again this maddening situation, where he hasn't said what he thinks the second crime is or what crimes plural were. It was said that seems to be where he's heading so we're trying to infer from the outside when he has to turn over a bill. Particulars assuming trump's legal defence team ass for one in discovery, he'll have to say this more explicitly and then at that point we should understand that better. certainly raises the possibility that different jurors might have different theories of the case in their own heads try. It very much feels to me like this concept of throwing multiple

second crime, felony charges against the wall and seeing what might stick tat idea has invited a lot of the debate that we watch played out over the past week or so about the strength of this case. We hear many people saying this case feels flimsy or we, There are people on the other side who disagree and say it stronger, but right to understand that alvin eggs decision, not to articulate one second crime, that he wants to pursue clearly as being a big contributor to this debate about what This is fundamentally just not that stronger case, Michael, I think that's right and yet, at the same time, there's a chicken and egg issue here which,

is if he had a sing, your knockout second crime. He wouldn't need to throw things against the wall. Multiple things use the wall to see. What's takes the most natural second crime Here is a campaign find his crime that he knows is going to attract accusations of poverty or problematic, legally untested overtones and that leading him down this path of there's this there's this and there's this there's so many things here. Folks got it louis natural case, Is potentially week so he wants a safety net. He wants kind of illegal legal parachute, which is how you, from just came in financing. You ve been financed, plus potentially, taxes which sounds a little bit like something of a risky strategy when you're taking on a former president of the united states. That kind of all the above spaghetti approach like one way of have added another is its belt and suspenders right. If one fails the others their vice versa, right,

which isn't necessarily a bad thing socially. What happens if album brag can't prove one of these second crimes and he ends up being left with based. We a bunch of Mr Miller's, because we talk about these thirty four charges is felony charges, but they're not fail please until they're made into felonies by the second crime. So if you don't get the second crime, what does that look like? It would be worse, Michael from Alvin bragg than being left with a bunch of misdemeanors, because he did not charge trump with misdemeanor bookkeeping fraud, which is code one. Seventy five point, one: five in the new york penal code. He charged him with a different section of the code which is felony falsifying business records, and so, if he cannot prove out that there was an intention to mask or commit a second crime.

It's just not guilty. There's the does not revert to misdemeanours because he never got charged under misdemeanor law in the first place, so the thing crime is not nice to have its not a little so it is absolutely essential. You're saying it's a whole bogging, that's right! Without it, the jury would have to acquit donald trump it'll, be complete collapse for the district attorney and a huge vindication for trump, and that would be why bull, our nervous about of all the investigations against trump. This one going first utterly. Thank you, for on us, we really appreciate it. pleasure. hmm. On tuesday district attorney, Elvin brag filed federal lawsuit, designed to defend his case again,

one of its fiercest critics, republican congressmen, Jim Jordan, of a high on the lawsuit seeks to block jordan. His republican allies in congress from tat to obtain confidential materials compiled during rags investigation of donald trump in the lawsuit bright described that effort as oak brazen, an unconstitutional attack against the office of the district attorney and an effort to interfere his indictment against tribe right back. Mrs Davis is the world's most powerful artificial intelligence- simone The nun devoted to destroying her and finding the holy grail from a co executive producer

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stays before the attack. During a new conference, local elected officials said that under current gun loss they simply lacked the tools they need it to stop such massacres. Our community is hurting, but we need policies in place that will keep this from here. again, this investigation had in a highly anticipated report the bible mistress, has proposed away to confront the show king supply of water in the colorado river. By cutting this In percentage of water allotted to three different states- california, arizona and nevada. Under the proposal, the amount water distributed to each state would be reduced by as much as twenty five percent a scenario that would fall hardest on California. the imposition of such a proposal by the federal government would be unprecedented, but so far efforts by the states

to reach? An agreement on their own have failed final decision about how to move forward is expected later this year to these edison was produced by robs if go and moose eighty withheld from Alex star was edited by lisa chow and devon taylor withheld from page coward. Contains original music from marian lozano and damp pal and was engineered by Chris. Would our theme, music is by and wondered and billions of wonderingly that's it. I'm, like alibi, seen warm.