Thirty years ago, Germany put forth a theory for how to work with Russia. Major energy deals, leaders argued, would keep Russia from going to war with its neighbors.
Over the past 20 years, Germany has made itself incredibly dependent on Russian gas.
The war in Ukraine has complicated that relationship and has shown how Germany’s approach to Russia has not only failed, but also backfired.
Guest: Katrin Bennhold, the Berlin bureau chief for The New York Times.
Want more from The Daily? For one big idea on the news each week from our team, subscribe to our newsletter.
Background reading:
- Germany, dependent on Russian gas, has so far refused to cut off President Vladimir V. Putin, whose war it is effectively subsidizing to the tune of some $220 million in energy payments a day.
- Under increasing pressure to sever the country’s reliance on Russian energy, German officials must contend with deeply rooted economic ties.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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the New York Times unlikable borrow this is the day of thirty years ago.
put forth a theory for,
how to work with Russia that was supposed to keep Russia from going to war
or with its european neighbours. Today,
the story of how that theory not only failed but backfired. On Germany, I spoke with
I calling here our chief catch.
and then the
Friday April, eighth over the past.
two days as evidence has emerged of russian atrocities in Ukraine,
the western world has been looking for, the next logical way to punish Russia and everybody keeps returning to the same place, which is shutting off the flow of energy from
Shaw to Europe and to Germany specifically, and so that's we want talk about with you. Why does that
keep coming up as a way of inflicting pain on Russia. Michael Russia completely relies on the money that it earns on its natural resources, oil, gas
in coal, and the European Union as a whole has been buying a lot of all of these things from Russia to Germany in particular, gets about quarter of its entire energy supply from Russia about half the coal experts in Germany come from Russia. Some of that is oral. That's about a third and
over half of german gas imports have been coming from Russia. So Germany is basically Russia's most lucrative client in Europe for Energy and especially for gas. In fact, if you put it altogether, Germany pays Russia two hundred million euros a day roughly in energy payments, to the reason people are calling
for Germany to shut off the energy coming from Russia is because that flow of energy is
one of the biggest remaining sources of revenue for
Russia, at a time when they're being sanctioned, left and right, this remains a way for Russia to basically pay for the war.
Yes, I think that's right. I mean Russia setting energy across the world not just to Europe, but Europe is an important source of
new in Germany within Europe is the biggest source of revenue for gas exports for Russia. So you know the focus has been very much on this one pipeline, Nord, one, which is a pipeline that carries most of the gas that Germany uses and in many ways has become a symbol of you, know. Germany's reliance on Russia for gas, but also the stream of
energy revenue flowing the other way to Russia right so Catherine, why not just turn off that pipeline? As you say,
symbol,
of money,
in Germany and going to Russia at a time when it may be committing war crimes
The problem, Michael, is that of the last twenty years. Germany has made itself incredibly dependent on Russia. This pipeline carries about sixty billion cubic metres of gas. Every year is also more than half of the entire gas at the germ
Economy uses to keep humming many manufacturers. You know a lot of the sort of german companies that contribute to this being an Ex
which I mean in the world. These companies use gas to power their production. So this pipeline
which carries the gas to Germany is something that in a way represents this politicians at the moment, say we simply cannot cut off the gas right now
their scrambling to become more independent, but right now they say we can't do it. So if you turn off this pipeline, you basically turn off the german economy. That's thinking- or at least it would take a very
areas hit. So a lot of people are worried about this ends with it
As you know, normally you ve got these economists who worked for labour unions, and you ve got economists, you know who work for the business Federation and they don't
to agree on everything? But in this case they absolutely agree. They say the turning off the gas right now to punish Russia would because traffic for the german economy, the talking about a six point decline to do to pay, which is worse than anything it was seen for quite a while, including you know, the first year of the covert pandemic and
similar ballpark to the financial crisis after two thousand and eight so Katherine. How is it that Germany has become this dependent on Russia?
for something as essential to an economic well being as gas. Where does that story begin?
You probably have to go back to reunification, Michael when Western
Many and Eastern Germany, which was you know a communist country that belonged to the soviet sphere of influence, right, became one country again.
The Berlin Wall fell in nineteen, eighty nine, and there was the sense that peace in Europe was now a given. There was a huge ambition to sort of include Russia into what
in politicians sometimes called the House of Europe. You know engages with Russia. Trade with Russia bind Russia to Europe through Economic and
Actions and the Germans were particularly keen on this, partly because you know there is a history of guilt dating back to the Second World WAR killed over what
guilt over twenty seven million soviet deaths ass, they came in
Braided Germany from the Nazis and in the german psyche, often soviet kind of equals russian, and so there is a sense that we owe them, and we certainly owe it to ourselves that they shall never be a kind of a an aggressive, a confrontational relationship with
it's bad for everybody? So, given all these dynamics and all these complicated sort of historical feelings,
Germany really kind of developed. This philosophy that, after the fall of communism as Russia
became a democracy, and the hope was that it would sort of grow closer to the west. That engaging in
Trade and becoming more interdependent. Germany on
Russia and Russia and Germany that this would further peace on the continent and bring prosperity to all. There was this sort of idea will just to make sure. I understand that logic,
It's that if Russia is economically linked to Germany and to the rest of Europe, but especially to Germany, because it's the biggest economy in Europe, then Russia acts democratically and acts peacefully towards the rest of Europe. That's right! So how does that thinking
play out in practice. So in the ninety nine after the wall came down during
in Russia in a start trading, much more and one of the clearest manifestations of you know a kind of future commitment almost to Russia is that people start talking about a pipeline that directly connects the two countries. No gas have been running from Russia to Germany for a long time, and it had been coming through these underground pipelines.
that ain't no went through other countries, including Ukraine and Poland, and then you know one of in Germany, but now they were talking about a pipeline that went direct from Russia to Germany and they called it Nord Stream, one which is this incredibly ambitious project an undersea pipeline. Merely
eight hundred miles long. Have you no serious feat of engineering that would link Russia to Germany directly bypassing these? You know other pipelines that exist overland and give Germany direct access to russian gas, and so this was sort of proof.
that Germany meant business long term, because this is a long term. Incredibly expensive, complicated undertaking right and one of the biggest champions at the time of this pipeline was Germany's chancellor
trader any really it off with this new russian president, Vladimir Putin, who
well. Only a year after he was elected, comes to speak to the german parliament was remixed by then president. It's the first time a russian president has ever addressed the german parliament. This is a big moment and what's more, this guy used to be a KGB officer in Dresden, so he speaks fluent German
he charms, the entire german establishment, by standing up in parliament and speaking in german speaking on what he himself during that speech, called Liza, get good the sugar, Gunther learning the language of Gerda Schiller and can't. You know referring to like two of the most famous poet
in Germany and a famous philosophers, so he really puts it on Zil get them on him, get her to ab equal to. I hope that will abuse will do, and you know, if you look back over that speech at striking. It almost seems, like everything the Germans had hoped for in the nineteen nineties, binding Russia closer to Germany, giving an incentive to become more democratic and to engage in sort of trade with the west that all this was actually panning out nicely. You know he was talking to parliamentarians. He was saying those things when he was just learned. Russia is a friendly european nation who was alone. Does a Yahoo wonderful, the Greeks got us talking. Boogie market is to study the freedom of them continuum thus hoped to. He was actually talking about stable peace on this continent and how it's a quote: the paramount goal for our nation, thus hooked to the even political
is saw alum to give her a lesson. The Democritus, nourished it and fired. He went so far as to actually describe quote democratic rights and freedoms as the key goal of Russia's domestic policy. So you can imagine members of the parliament from the conservatives. All the way to the social Democrats were riveted, full wheel, ticket to them and arabic,
at chef Mickey's. The fact he got a standing ovation that day well, he kind of seemed to embody this post cold war, world and Europe in which peace with Russia was not just possible but actually kind of a long term prospect. So trade for peace, that philosophy that money to Russia will make
the better actor. This all seems to be working and it's very much embodied. It sounds like you're saying in this speech. Where Putin comes to Germany and says here, I am your partner just the way you want me to be that's right, and you know it would take another few years, but in two thousand and five this nordstream one contract is signed by for and when shortest successor comes into office. It's Angela Merkel and she's. A concern
so she's from a totally different party and disagrees with further and lots of things, but on one thing they are totally aligned, it seems, and that is the Russia policy she's, the one who actually ends up opening Nord stream, one in two thousand eleven. Thank you very much
It's the map. Indeed, you may take your place at the wheel. Ladies and gentlemen, excellencies will come to the high point of our ceremony, we're going to turn the wheel of history. We need luxury travels up to the Baltic Sea
So now I will ask you to put your hands on the wheel, but don't turn it yet. Okay, don't turn it yet and kind of turns the pervert
spirit with several other european leaders and also the russian president
turn that way and there's there's photos
occasion and they're all standing there together. You know turning that, we'll looking incredibly happy there. Looking like this is a very good thing, and animal Merkel is in fact so convinced by this idea of this gas. You know interdependence with Russia that that same year announces that she wants to phase out nuclear power altogether. This is the year of the Fukushima disaster in Japan. Germans have never been crazy about nuclear power, but this particular disaster really turns public opinion against nuclear power even more, and so our mark all decides we're gonna phase
nuclear power, and she doesn't that same year that Nord stream one opens, which sort of shows how reliable she clearly believed this source of energy was.
So, even though Merkel, who was never blue eyes and sort of delusional about Vladimir Putin, thought that this gas supply was something you could rely on pretty much forever
and in the process. Merkel, of course, is deepening Germany's reliance on this gas pipeline from Russia absolutely
Germany was relying on nuclear for twenty five percent of its electricity generation, so with that, on its way out, gas became even more important and in fact,
that time they were already planning a second pipeline in the same place which they going to call Nordstrom to, but then in twenty forty
in Russia invaded Crimea
and this was a moment really when Germany's allies for the first time seriously began to question this reliance on russian gas and began to question the wisdom of signing up for a second pipeline right, because when Putin invades Crimea,
it suggests that this german philosophy you have been describing Catherine. The treaty makes
Russia a more peaceful country might not be entirely correct exactly so. This was kind of the first wake up call and it does jobs. The german establishment there's no question that people are beginning to to think you know very hard about this philosophy of theirs and
this is when you begin to see very serious and vocal opposition from Germany's allies in Europe, but also in America. You know
a lot of Congress. People who are you that Germany is making itself way too dependent that Germany becomes kind of almost a hostage to the Kremlin that Russia's now holding all the cards because Russia delivers the
ass, an controls but tat? They warned Germany that Russia could weapon ice the gas supply that they could turn off they tap at any time and that very threat
what's mean that Germany could not act?
in the way that it needed to because it was too dependent, Germany kind of said. We don't believe that the Russians have always been reliable with their gas deliveries,
and so they can reassure their allies. They say we think this is fighting and Nord stream to was at all the way back. This high cast a supported by I share is the shift to a local
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Troll Rosenberg from the New York Times right now,
sitting alone in the press room at the: U S, Navy basic onetime obey. I probably spent around two thousand nights at this Navy base
I've been coming here since four
after the nine eleven attacks I watched the
the prisoners, arrive in those orange jumpsuits from far away Afghanistan. Some of these prisoners. They still don't have a trial date.
Hard to get here. It's hard to get news from the prison. Often
I'm the only reported here if you
build a military court in prison out of
which of the american people, it should not be out of reach of american journalism. We have a duty to keep coming
and explain what's going on here. The New York Times takes you to difficult and controversial places. It keeps you informed about unpopular and hard to report developments and that
resources. You can power that kind of journalism by subscribing to the New York Times so catch on once Russia starts to threaten Ukraine at the end of last year and into the beginning of this year, with troops on its border. How do Germany's leaders think about the place of these two
giant gas pipelines in this emerging conflict. Germany was incredibly slow to really start talking about pipelines. I mean, as recently as January, Chancellor shawls, who had to be fair to him just been in office for
a month still was talking about Nord Stream, two as a quote: private business project, and so less than three months ago, this government still seemed wedded to the idea that they could just proceed with a further entanglement with Russia and that the
I should go ahead. It was interesting when Scholtz went to see President Biden in February and they stood there together for press conference at the end and scholtz was very directly and multiple times asked whether he was prepared to shut down nordstream two. If Russia actually invaded, he said that he would take measures, but he didn't name the pipeline and he just dodged the question. It was actually President Biden who said if they invade northern to his history and when Putin a couple of days before the invasion, recognizes these two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine Donetsk.
hands, shawls finally announces that not stream to won't go ahead. Just to be clear. This is Germany shutting down the pipeline. That's not yet operational
rather than shutting down. Nor
stream, one which is throwing tens of millions of dollars a day. We think to Russia, that's true, although it is the first step, the first sign that Scholtz is acknowledging. Germany had it wrong. For thirty years, hmm, and just a few days later after Russia's actually invaded shoulder, stands up in parliament.
and gives a thirty minute speech there. Buddhist consular olive shorts. We basically announces a complete overhaul of german foreign policy
the bonus, also its vital transparency that is under a mood, I'm management. I know that my garden, I will also including rearmament,
one hundred billion euros worth of special funds
You get the german army up and
again
and how they get the shooting astonished under okay in the abundance of tidy going to slander, sniffer belts,
He announces that they were
after all, deliver weapons to Ukraine, another taboo, which had been unthinkable just a couple of days before
we search minded dominant and then the Amir to the ones that an executive at Nike Puzzle, algorithms of London took avail us and crucially, he announces that Germany had to extract itself from it's dependency in energy terms, on Russia for fires, often as directors of greatly
it's open beer that MR title, so this is a complete review.
Saul of the philosophy countenance
described as taking root.
german reunification
in the early nineties nineties, which says
more and more bound up with Russia, because that will make Russia a more peaceful country? This is Germany rejecting that philosophy.
exactly on that day in February. Basically, Germany decided that it has been wrong about military policy that it had been wrong about his foreign policy regarding Russia and that it needed to change his energy policy. It was kind of a complete resync and one that went pretty deeply to the kind of coral Sherman Prostreet. If occasionally
and right to the core of the german business model. But of course this has to be a lot easier to say than to do too suddenly stopping depend
on Russia for energy because, as you told us German,
His gun, rid of its nuclear energy, for example, end its whole economy would collapse without russian gas is incredibly difficult, Michael and you know they are being tested almost every day,
with more and more people, pushing them to do more and move faster and, in some ways they're moving remarkably fast, given that they've done nothing for a very long time, but you can see, for example,
imports from Russia have already half in just over a month. Well oiled imports, you know, have gone down pretty significantly from you know. What kind of a thirty five to a twenty percent share in the total gas is harder. We ve got ministers travel the world trying to sort of identifying alternative sources, Bud
we need so much of it. So it's been incredibly hard and you can imagine that the pressure is only growing last weekend when these terrible images of the atrocities in butcher of these people civilians lying dead on the streets flickered across
and television screens as they did across the world. That's when it really all blew up and and Germans were being pressed.
By their allies, especially in Eastern Europe, to basically rise to the occasion and cut off the gas
Even within Germany, the precious rising is very interesting. We ve had critiques from neighbouring countries for quite a long time with in Germany, you now seeing in very conservative newspapers editorials that are based.
the glee talking about Germany's moral obligation, given it sort of genocidal passed. So you know you ve got this financial newspaper handles flat, which had an editorial. That said, the country that proudly proclaims that Europe will never again
see the likes of outwits is pumping two hundred million euros each day, independence war chest you know all of a sudden. The editor Ill says
discussion in Germany about whether our economy would grow by six percent or just three percent in the event of an energy embargo seems petty and insignificant.
We resemble a hostage to the Kremlin. I will talk about this at all, because it is very powerful what you just read. It seems too
asking, how can we as a country that committed the ultimate war crimes,
help finance a war in which another country is allegedly committing its own atrocities. It's an incredibly difficult,
I stand in this country- and you can imagine the sort of moral debates
raging right now- you actually
as a majority of Germans by now in polls, saying they would be prepared for their government to simply cut ties, cut the gas ties with Russia and shut off huh, but
the government, is arguing that they don't actually know what that would mean cutting off the gas would not just mean
a massive rise in energy prices. It would mean an increase in
employment, it would mean a recession that might be worse than anything we ve seen for a couple of decades, there, basically acknowledging that they ve lost all Everett, which is exactly what the allies had warned them off many years before.
Catherine, in thinking about the story that you have just laid out here, it really feels like the economic relationship at Germany, pursued with Russia.
since reunification. Since the nineteen nineties, it did not prevent Russia from doing bad things, which was the theory. In fact, it is given. Russia
leverage that probably allowed it to invade Ukraine, because it knew on some level that Germany could only go so far and punishing it.
without profoundly hurting Germany itself. It knew how reliant Germany was gonna be on its gas, in other words, prudent figured out that this theory of interdependence in an area like ass tat could be a weapon that he could use against. Germany, not a weapon really that Germany could use against Russia now threat, and there is no question that Germany got the balance right
You get a scenario where, basically, you turned interdependence into a kind of dependence which has kind of exposed to a fundamental weakness in the story that not just Germany but a lot of countries in the west that we pretty much all told ourselves after the fall of communism after the end of the cold war that, if you trades, if you make the costs of foregoing peace high enough, then you preserve peace
and it kind of works up to a point. But that point is basically when you're dealing with autocracies like Russia,
The term.
Thank you very much. As always, we appreciate it. Thanks, Michael on Thursday, in the latest effort to punish Russia, the European Union, including
voted to ban the importation of russian call, but despite pressure from ukrainian officials, the EU did not ban russian gas in a statement. Ukraine,
foreign Minister said that as long as european countries continue to buy russian gas, they are quote supporting Ukraine with one hand,
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Transcript generated on 2022-04-09.