After Donald J. Trump was indicted over his role in paying hush money to a porn star during the 2016 presidential campaign, he called the move an act of political persecution.
But his impending arrest could actually make Mr. Trump a stronger candidate for 2024, the Times correspondent Maggie Haberman explains.
Guest: Maggie Haberman, a political correspondent for The New York Times.
Background reading:
- Many of Mr. Trump’s potential opponents snapped into line behind him, showing just how hard it may be to persuade Republican voters to choose an alternative.
- Mr. Trump reacted to his indictment by returning to his time-tested legal strategy: attack and delay.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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This is a daily today. What the indictment, an impending arrest of donald trump, for both him and his party, my colleague, maggie haven, has the
inside story of how it's been playing out the it's Monday April. Third, the maggie Michael. I was thinking in preparation for this interview. How much the history of the daily has been defined by you coming on to talk about donald trump right. There is the kind of presidential phase, then there's the post presidential affairs now there's the indictment phase of maggie explaining and translating the world of donald trump. It is always a privilege to be here with you on what I think is now our seventh year. Yes, seventh year ab or something
If time and of course now the trump has been indicted over these hush monti payments made during his first presidential campaign. We want to understand how he and those around
and him and really the entire republican party have been processing, is really extraordinary moment and
if we can, I want to start the clock back just a little bit too the days before the indictment when the possibility of it based on your reporting, seem to be very much on trumps. Mind sure. So you have to remember, Michael that four terms being under investigation is not a new phenomenon. He's been the sovereign.
of criminal investigations on and off for the past, nearly forty five years from when he was a young developer, working with his father, fred and new york real estate and he developed playbook for dealing with investigations, throwing
kinds of wrenches into cases to delay them,
trying to run down the clock and, in some cases trying to smooth prosecutors, but he's never not once before, been charged with crimes,
and so the possibility that what is it
Actually, a winning streak might end has been simply put terrifying for him.
The thought of being indicted was terrifying for him,
You saw that when you could see
was aware, it was likely coming and he began trying to focus his supporters energy in opposed on it.
Truth, social account. This morning, former president trop announced that he expects to be indicted by manhattan district attorney.
I've brag in the investigation. So, on march eighteenth, he posted untruths,
show the social media website. He wrote in all cabs. The foreign away, leading republican candidate and former president of the united states of america will be arrested on tuesday of next week.
And he said that he was arrested. Three.
later on tuesday march, twenty first trump, whose supporters stormed the? U s,
capitol on January. Sixth, two thousand and twenty one wrote quote: protest, take our nation back and look it's not the normal behavior of a target of an investigation right to announce that he's about to be arrested. Right and more importantly, it wasn't true. You know he had put out this day. That was as best as anyone can tell a guess that has
there's were making, but it hadn't been reported, but why? Why would you tell the world you about to be arrested when you haven't for knowledge are about to be arrested and you basically just guessing at it?
since the great question and I think to a large degree, it was a projection of his anxiety and at the same time, it was a way to try to control the narrative and media attention and to protect his power. And how, in that strategy, is he actually projecting his power? So remember, there are huge group of Republicans who, after twenty twenty and the general six twenty twenty one attack on the capital
It concluded that trump is bad for the party they feel he hurt the party in the midterm elections when the party did nowhere near as well as it could have or seemed like it was on track to do a half, but after trump's post about an arrest, you already see the party starting to have to contend.
but the reality of this enormous place and Paul? He still has over the party a him at what? How does that start,
violence itself. What within hours of trump saying this entry, social, one of the most powerful figures and government? How speaker Kevin Mccarthy announced that he would have committees investigate the manhattan
tricked attorney whose leading this case against tramp alvin brag right. Otherwise he would use the Republican controlled house as a kind of weapon against,
the people who would soon in theory be charging draw. Yes, that was not actually what he said, but that is the actual practical effect and allies of terms
then used this unverified claim of an impending arrest to try to pressure and almost beat down his biggest rival and the twenty twenty four presidential
is florida, governor, rhonda santas to say,
things supportive of trump until trump posted untruths. Socially
and has had really been avoiding
waiting into this case. He was staying silent, but.
from advisers and his campaign saw an opening from
campaign war room issued a statement saying it has been over twenty four hours and some people are still silent. History will judge their silence, so some people
here everyone understood to mean rhonda sentence. He was one
he was one of the sums. He was a big some. So what does this have to do? In response to this pressure campaign, so for two days, dissenters, didn't, say anything and then at an event in panama city florida, dissenters was asked by reporters about what trumpet said and he attacked brag
instead of the standard terms at this point, denounced him as a district attorney, but then twice made a point of saying
He doesn't know anything about hush money, payments to porn stars
we should note, has denied either having an affair with the porn star,
jane, stormy daniels or paying her off, but dissent is knew what he was doing and it was a tweak trump. It was a dig at the personal conduct, got it ok. So what happens next at this point in the chronology? Trump has claimed without any verification that he's about to get arrested, thereby forcing people like Rhonda santa's too, have to react and
and of genuflect, but not quite so? What happens next so tuesday march? Twenty first comes and goes in. Trump is, of course, not arrested because their hammer, once they plan to arrest him that day, because he had not been indicted,
but then something interesting happens trump.
those around him a meeting.
We start developing a new message. They start insisting that the case against him is falling apart. Interesting. That is a big change and what is behind them
So this was fuelled primarily by a lawyer named bob Castelo. We are hearing from somebody who used to represent somebody else who used to represent donald trump how's that
a guy named Robert Castello, who testified to a grand jury manhattan and if your custom testified before the grand jury is a witness for tron wish if they want to
if the donald trump and they have solid evidence, so be it, but Michael cone is far from solid evans
Castello had had interactions with Michael Cohen, the key witness in this case
the one who made the hush money payments this guy by any prosecutor standard than I used to be deputy chief of the criminal division in the southern district of new york. I wouldn't have touched a guy like Michael cole, especially if he's a cunt
did perjurer and so Castilla goes on as mediator, and he,
telling one rapporteur after another that in his testimony, he had completely attacked and crushed the credibility of Michael Cohen
The only thing I'm doing is trying to tell the truth to the grandeurs, because I
All these lies in the in the media that are being promoted by one side,
and then from there? The trump folks appear to certain.
Believing their own hype, claiming that the case is falling apart.
and you know that nobody would rely on the word of Michael Cohen as a witness, because Castelo was so strong and that brag according to them was now having concerns about bringing this case. They never provided any evidence of what they were saying. I have
and so by the time we got two made last week, Michael moran,
Wednesday trumps team was so convinced that nothing was happening there were.
Words that the grand jury was adjourning for a month, one of trump zone top advisers was assuring colleagues that things were on ice, possibly forever. The trump aids started, leaving palm beach
and going to other places in some cases flying out of the state entirely because they believe they were just fine. I mean it's kind of remarkable because trump goes in, I think,
fan of just a few days from being so freaked out that he told her what is about to be arrested.
who suddenly it seems designing. Nothing
I see her folks, everybody can just,
leave marilla, go I'm fine to the point that he posts, untruth social that he has seen a stir,
new respect for the grand jury system and the grandeurs, because, according
and this is all going so well for him and it's a real window, michael into the way trump world operates in there's, one adviser in particular who other aids referred to as the good news guy somebody who just feeds trump
what he wants to hear and positive information, regardless of whether
It's true or not, and trump you know, has this whole reliance on the so called power of positive thinking, and he believed that it really does impact events
or at least claims that he believes that he has for decades, and then you have all
if the people around him, who both fear him and want to please him, and so they end up feeding this back to him and it becomes this kind of self fueling ecosystem where
The facts are what you make them right and we're reality can be distorted very powerfully and where legal problems can be conflated with public
since problems and media strategy problems and that all becomes part of one big feed fascinating and then, of course, it turns out. All that is entirely misplaced,
Yes, none of what they were saying was going to happen happened. In fact, it was quite the opposite,
and so when the indictment finally comes last thursday late in the afternoon, it really catches tromp.
And his advisers off guard because of what they had been telling themselves and in some cases telling each other, and so what is as best, you can tell trumps reaction.
when this indictment that he was so scared up and then suddenly not work
not at all becomes real. He was furious, is very, very angry. What he released the statement through his book,
person calling the indictment election interference at the highest level in history, and he
delivered a statement with aids. He accused quote radical left democrats of engaging in a witch hunt and saying quote: the Democrats have lied, shaded and stolen in their obsession with trying to get trump in which he calls it political persecution.
A witch hunt and says the justice system is being weapon used against him all
feels like standard donald trump Lange
in a situation like this, but, as you pointed out earlier, no situation like this has ever exist for him.
no that's right. In fact, so many predictions of his demise didn't come true, so this indictment actually happened
And this is the moment when the entire republican party has to figure out how it is
going to react to this historic development in the former president has just been indicted. He's
eating republican candidate for president in twenty twenty four, and they have to say
what to do in order it back.
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barker host of the coup,
was case, laramie a show from cereal
actions in the new york times in nineteen? Eighty five
Was a high school sophomore laramie wyoming when a woman was brutally murdered their victim
just a few years older than I was the killing stuck with me.
These years partly be-
of how violent it was partly because
how emblematic it was of my time in laramie, a town,
we thought of as the meanest place I'd ever been, but mostly
as the crime was never solved, and then a few years back,
the police arrested, someone for the murder of former laramie cop
his dna was found that the crime scene, but then prosecutor
drop the charges
temporarily, they said, but they still
reviled the charges, and it's never been clear- why? How did it
is. It seemed this open and shut fall apart with such a whimper
I decided I had to head back to laramie to find answers to
this case laramie listen,
wherever you get your PA. So, like you, what kind of response do we see from because once this thing that had seemed so theoretical becomes
we'll. So I think it's fair to say that their reactions break down into two categories: the first or those who
Mountain defend him because they genuinely are behind trump and
If that this indictment, which they don't know the details have yet to be clear right, is wrong.
I'm just leave the market
Is there so there was martyr.
Taylor. Green, who has said she's going to new york to support,
in person, although it remains to be seen. If that will happen, they just want a mugshot, Donald trump smiles, pretty sure look good
there's a congressmen, Jim Jordan, and so it is ridiculous. I think the american people see it for for what it is
using his position in the house to subpoena district attorney,
often brag everything is on the table
because the american people deserve answers to why a district attorney is doing something that has never happened in the history of our great country, and these are magua republican
those who are fiercely loyal to trump, but then on the other side, you have republicans who aren't actually loyal to trump at all, but who feel the need to defend him and to attack this indictment because they fear crossing him.
So governor rhonda santas caused the indictment on twitter, the weapon asean.
the legal system to advance a political agenda refers to.
as on american while and
so vows not to extradite tramp from florida to new york, where I think the unprecedented and died
a former president of the united states on a campaign. Finance issue is an outrage and
We also saw my pants, the former vice president, under trump, who has been trying to establish some distance from turkey,
in various ways, compelled to denounce the indictment, and it appears to opt for millions of americans.
I nothing more than a political prosecution, that's driven by so what starts happening after
and I mean is real- is their starting to offer much more full throated and explicit defenses of term. If you're was talking about the strength of this reaction that comes after this indictment, this instinct defend drawn from people who, in the case of the centres and paths, are very likely to one against him for the republican nomination. Twenty four:
that's just not normal behavior from people in politics who are trying to beat you. That's weird: viewing trump's antagonists as part of the liberal overreach, has become a bar for entry in republican politics, for republican candidates in primaries, and the fear for candidates not just for president but up and down ballots, is that they will be punished by the voters in those primaries. If they don't do just that, and that's because trump created that universe- and we talked to about this so many times during his presidency, he created a world in which any effort to hold him accountable is the quote: unquote weaponization of
the justice system correct and furthermore, he tells those voters. I am for you so they're coming after me, and so in our reporting. We talk to a lot of republican leaders who said this indictment is making it harder to push trump aside.
hmm, for example David Mcintosh, the president of the club for growth, who has no love lost for donald trump. He leads a conservative anti tax group seeking a replacement for trump as the face of the republican party. He said the indictment had already generated sympathy for the former president to the argument for something like mackintosh's, basically that, given the dynamic
you just described an indictment of trump makes trump a stronger republican candidate for the nomination. It bonds a group of republican voters more tightly to trump, and that therefore makes it harder for any other candidate to build them away. That's really interesting
because in that sense, if you're an anti drug republican- and there are a lot of them at this point- you maybe wishing this indictment had never
and there are a lot of republicans who have said privately, Michael that they wish. This indictment had not happened even if they dislike donald trump intensely and, as you say, many do, but they recognize that this this one in particular, because it involves personal conduct because of the dynamics of it, the timing of it, the fact that it happened before he was president. They feel this one is not the testicles
that should have happened. Rank is this kind of the ultimate capstone version of the story. Tromp has been telling
other voters. I have their out to get me, or at least it makes it easier to sell it. That work is right
I think that brings us to how trouble now use this indictment in his campaign.
For press, and what do we know about that? Well, it's interesting.
in order to be here and say, hello, Texas? We really got a taste of that when he held a campaign rally just over a week ago in waco texas, right after he had claimed, falsely that he was about to be
right from the beginning has been one witch hunt, informally investigation after another and me
diamond- was a huge focus of that rally, the new weapon,
by out of control are getting democrats to cheat on election is
investigation candidate and
ready. He was claiming during the rally I got. Beer, publicity and more poll numbers have gone through the roof. Would you explain that even the potential
indictment was helping him do better than ever before in the polls, and is that true women? He said it before he was in
I did now he hasn't been indicted, like is there any evidence that this is going to help him with republican voters? In some polls, for instance, there was a yahoo poll right after the indictment that showed trump with his biggest lead yet over to dissenters. It went from an eight point lead before the indictment to a twenty six point lead after.
And so at least for now, trump is showing real signs of strength after this indictment. Among republicans, to give him that, is it safe to assume that trump will be openly embracing the indictment as a kind of political asset. I think, at least for now, it's safe to say that the indictment is basically going to be trump's running mate, as he is a candidate.
president, and you know the trunk campaign says that it raised more than four million dollars within twenty four hours after the indictment happening, which is an extraordinary
it's a lot of money. But none of that changes the reality that this entire
go saga could end with him being convicted and
possibly going to jail, which would negate whatever strength. This brings him in a republican primary, because it would fundamentally change the course of his entire life, and I wonder how trump and those around him think about that prospect. It is really uncharted territory for them. You know trump advisers in candid moments. Privately acknowledge
it's. The one reason that he ran for president in two thousand. Twenty four was to use his candidacy as a shield. Against such a thing happening I mean, can you explain
Is there any kind of legal logic to that running again after losing in two thousand and twenty as a kind of legal protection? Several people have told me that he believes it is going to be harder for prosecutors to wage a prosecution against him if he is a candidate he now.
lawyers warned him did a candidacy wouldn't actually be a shield against prosecution and the fact that there is now an indictment proves that point right and that point is gonna, become very, very tangible tromp in the next forty eight hours, and we were talking on Sunday afternoon on tuesday,
is gonna, have to show up in manhattan and face these charges in person, and that is going to be. I imagine very humbling.
yes on Monday afternoon. He will travel from florida to new york city. He will stay a trump tower for the night and then on tuesday. He will.
have to surrender to authorities in a new york city courthouse he will be fingerprinted, we dont think he's likely
handcuffed, and then he will be arraigned, which is a court hearing in which all the charges from this indictment are finally aired and unsealed
We think there will be about two dozen of those charges at least right and then
what those moments this is all going to become very real for trump now he has talked to advisers. A lot about you know his so called per block where he has led down
into a court room. Should he smile or not, how should handle it him and has he concluded one way or another
I think that we're not going to know until game time, Michael what that does it that he's incredibly sensitive to every single dimension
of the right down to am I morose.
Or am I smiling at my defiant? Or am I sad? I mean it's really fascinating, yes, and I think two things can be true at once. He can lean into the spectacle of what their day is going to be, and he can also be deeply anxious
about what is about to happen to him in this moment that he has been trying to avoid for decades right the reality
Michael. I think this is going to be the lowest point in his career
This is a man for whom the fear of public humiliation
has been an animated forced for decades.
This really is one of his deepest in securities and anxieties that he could be just another person thrown in jail
The
and we know how much he fears that, because in
I twenty one, the former chief financial officer of the trouble
innovation, Alan weissenburg, whose around trumps age was indicted and arrested and tromp was horrified watching the footage of him on television being hauled into court. He
tell people. Could you believe what they're doing to that old man, and now he will be
He will be that man that is correct, but there's often about cloning based quitted. There is that's a very real possibility in any
and if that happens, it would be its own earthquake, because it would be the ultimate vindication for him. It would happen.
Likely in the middle of a presidential campaign- and it could just have huge consequences and reverberations in that race, in his ability to tell people that he's a victim in his ability to get people to feel somebody for him and perhaps to vote
and even to vote for him?
the
Thank you very much, Michael thank you.
The
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