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hey there and welcome to tax stuff i'm your host jonathan strickland diamond executive producer with iheart radio and how the tec aria you know predicting the future is really art even though that's where we're going to spend the rest of our lives thank you planned nine from outer space so i used to start every year off with a big tech predictions episode and i sit down and try and guess what could unfold in the following year and i think i a pretty a dismal average on those action some years i was like they are mostly correct but in a very lame way and a lot of times i felt like it was because the predictions i made were very very safe ones so i was never particularly be with them some this time i would get big predictions partly right very

a very rarely i would get one right on the money but a wooden again be as of because the writing would already be on the wall right like saying that a company is going to go out of business when the company is currently like massively struggling not a big protection so yeah most of the time i was off the mark and sometimes by a significant margin however i have learned i should not beat myself up over that because as it turns out a lot of people have made really bad tech predictions over the years some of those folks were or are way way smarter than i am so today we're going to talk about a few predictions that were notably incorrect now let us first remind ourselves and i i'm gonna touch on this a couple times in this episode that often we end being wrong in our predictions because we are projecting from what we know is possible today right that's understandable but

obviously you can't bring into the picture anything like breakthroughs in fields that make the previously impossible now possible or on the flip side we can imagine the hurdles willing counter that will slow or stop our progress toward a lofty go see also driverless hours which have proven to be much more complicated than most folks believed a decade ago or if you want to be really cynical you can take things like therein us and say it will of course people believed it was possible even though would later turn out that no the technology was not possible or not practical i'd so we are also really good at miss attributing statements to folks so the role of the claims that i'm going to talk about today did not come from the people who often will see their names attached to those statements

and this is a real problem as i was searching this episode i would come across a prediction and i'd think well today really say that then but do some more research and i would start again and i would start looking for the history of a particular statement and ultimately find out that the person who was due the supposed prognostication net actually said the ding dang durned thing in the first place sometimes what else said it and actually was trying to protect it sometimes the the protection just appeared to be an invention meant to make a famous person seem foolish so we'll talk about it you have those two in this episode now to kick us off i thought but talk about a very likely apocryphal story in fact i'll i'll just say i think this one is fake the person who allegedly made the prediction later deny that ever happened frequently

there's no reason to disbelieve this person so this rule it's too bill gates the co founder of microsoft now according to the story supposedly back the early eighties bill gates proclaimed that six hundred forty kilobytes of memory quote ought to be enough for any body end quote now this line pops up again and again if you start look for examples of people who are making bad predictions or outright dumb statements about technology she and the others this delicious irony person who is really influential in the tax base making a an outright incorrect statement or british and so if you're not aware six hundred forty kilobytes was diesel amount of memory back in nineteen eighty one when the story supposedly took place but it's a

in a school amount of memory these days like not even worth talking about like you peters today if you if you gotta computer that as on the low side you're still talking something like two gigabytes of memory maybe up sixty four gigabytes and then you could may expanded up to a hundred twenty eight gigabytes if you ve got a sixty four bit systems i remember i kill a bite is a thousand bites ok we should be doing this and base to it should really be a thousand twenty four bites but it really depends upon the company like some companies will just rounded off in some companies we use the base to so there are a thousand or a thousand twenty four bites that's what a kilobytes six hundred forty would be six hundred forty times that a gigabytes it is a billion bites or of organ base to its technically one billion seventy three million seven hundred forty one thousand eight hundred twenty four bites so yeah like gig by are orders of magnitude larger than kilobytes so

obviously the story seems to paint bill gates as extremely short sighted to assume six hundred forty kilobytes would be enough for anybody but the enormous whiff when his days even a bargain computer will have orders of magnitude more memory as standard but the thing is gates sir he never actually made this claim in fact dead that he was always pushing to create systems that could take advantage of more memory which is pretty much the opposite of what the claim says so on top of that while the general stories that gates said this at some point at sea trade show in dean eighty one there's no actual record of i'm saying that no there's no account on that year that says at this event during this we know precision bill gates said this thing so gates would later say in an interview quote i've said

stupid things and some wrong things but not that no one involved in computers would ever say that a certain amount of memory is enough for all time end quote so if gates had said this it would certainly qualifies someone making a wrong protection or statement about tech it doesn't seem like that ever happened there's lots stuff we could say about gates that is terrible and deeply disturbing but when it mr making this particular prediction that appears to just be made up in whole cloth there's a similar story then i want touch on the also paints a tech leader in a foolish light but this is due to a lack of context this law there would be can also he was a co founder of a company called digital equipment corporation or die easy i later on compaq would acquire d c and then even less

their hewlett packard would acquire come back so there's always a bigger fish but the story goes that also back in nineteen seventy seven gave presentation at the world future society in which he proclaimed quote there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home end quote now if we take that quote on the face of it it sounds like what he also was saying is that the very idea of a home personal computer is ludicrous considering that the nineteen seventeen the late seventies that was the launching ground for the home computer lessons words appear to be indefensible like he was just totally wrong the personal computer would become a huge deal day it's a market this nearly two hundred billion dollars in value but here's the thing also

explain that the problem was people were lifting that statement out of his presentation without the benefit of context he later d ben did what he said he said he wasn't talking about personal computers he wasn't time but little desktop computers though do all sorts of stuff he obviously believe that those would be a thing because de ce was in at business itself so there's no reason why his company would be pursuing that line of business if he didn't believe that it was viable rather what all was talking about was that you were not going to see people get a mainframe like computer system installed in their home for the purposes of automating everything like having a computer run household that's what he was talking about so we're not gonna see people get a computer to be the central operating system of your home summertime functions like controlling your lights or not

i'm a controls or the sort of stuff we can now do with network products like smart thermostats and light bulbs also saying he didn't see a future where people are going to buy and install these hefty computer systems and also that but wouldn't want their lives to be run by computers and this would have been back in the nineteen seventys when he made this statement and he was mostly right right like we didn't see people pay ridiculous amounts of money to automate their homes now these days we do have lots of cooperation automation products out there and deepen upon how deeply integrated your computer cattle there is with your life maybe you do feel like you're being your life is being run by a computer which that's a possibility but it doesn't it's not the same thing as holding his statement up and saying oh he was totally wrong about home computers so all since by was aimed more at pie in the sky for

tourists who had imagined the fully automated home which is a vision that actually dates back decades some of my favorite cartoons as a kid were cartoons or about the home of tomorrow and the cartoon than writers found give you ways to poke fun at basic automation concepts also was saying that was the sort of system no one would be buying for their home and he was right about that but it misses reputation of his meaning lead people to say that he was absolutely wrong and that he was talking about home computers ok next up i want to talk about the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy and how douglas comes dreamed up an outlandish technology in the titular guide when adams wrote first version of the story which was actually a radio play for bbc radio back in nineteen seventy eight there there are like half a dozen different versions of the hedge guide to the galaxy story and no to or exactly alike now have the be a play you of the novels you have it

you ve serious you got a movie like and each version what's the story slightly differently even the even the v in a record which took the radio play scripts changed things so there's no definitive version of hitchhikers guide to the galaxy anyway when he wrote this back in nineteen seventy eight personal computers really knew right there i've been around for very long so in story he has a character that has the guide to the galaxy and it is essentially a digital book it's about the size of a book and contains enormous amounts of information on pretty much anything you could encounter in the great big galaxy out there although some entries warranted longer descriptions than others earths entry for example was just mostly harmless and even before that it was just harmless while adamses work ready the absurdity and comedy

this idea of this sort of portable the vice that could have access to vast amounts of information would persist beyond the pages of fiction and ask him these found ways to build smaller components and then crammed those components into microchips it has got more powerful and capable of storing more information add in the ability to network these devices and things really woodstock to take off this brings me to andy grove the former the of intel back and ninety ninety two andy grove fame sleep dismiss the notion that before long executor it would be walking around with a wireless digital personal communications device cable of doing things like sending and receiving email or can you just imagine being able to pull up like real time local maps complete with traffic information and the route to get to your next destination essentially grove thought this vision

which would slowly coalesce into these smartphone was a pipe dream and that with something being hyped up by companies that were greedy but unrealistic of course grove was wrong the invention of the personal digital assistant and then the gradual convergence of the p with the cell phone would give birth to the modern smartphone and it wouldn t the executives who would carry them around there would be tons of people hundreds of millions of people something that was once in the realm of science fiction would now be a reality now we all have access to a vast database of information some other informations really useful some of it is diverting some of its outright harmful weaken send and receive emails or instant messengers even photo videos wicked upon line interact with various platforms we can shop from our phones

you can use them as navigation devices we get just play with them like toys it turns out that the pipe dream was in fact apply the and then a reality but bag nineteen ninety two you could probably understand groves scepticism apple the newton and ninety two and that became the first product that would be called apron no digital assistant or pda but particular device and allow limitations and quirks plus it lacked wireless connectivity still i b released a pda with analogue cellphone connectivity and nineteen ninety four and knock your father with a pda that had digital cellphone connectivity and ninety ninety six so it did not take very long for groves prediction to false okay we're going to take a quick break and then we'll be back with some more bad tech predictions i i i i i i i i

paper gas listeners returning for season for is the restless ones and original podcast presented by t mobile for business and i heart radio join me as i sit down for in depth discussions with the people at the intersection of technology and business learn of their unique missions and challenges to enhance optimization and drive their organizations forward we reveal how today's forward thinking leaders continue to thrive and a world of ever changing technology here from those on the leading edge of business share industry expertise and how a strong inflexible network lays the foundation for positive changes in their fields for revolutions and customer experience and employee enable meant to it is with the power to change the game and even the world they are building a bridge to what's next and adopting transport technologies like five g to create a more connected and meaningful future today check out new episodes of the restless ones avail

hold on i hurt radioactive apple pod or wherever you listened abad guests paper boys peddling down the street chucking newspapers male carrier stuffing mailboxes the internet the way we get our news is always changing but no matter how its delivered the economist has remained the global trusted source for one hundred eighty years and now

the economists new economist podcast split subscription you can get your news another way enjoy unlimited access the economists complete noise cancelling bud gas collection weekday editions of their current affairs pod cast the intelligence plus a new weakened show special limited series and all their popular weekly podcast on business china american politics science and technology personally i like the babbage bond cast that's their technology pod guess they have incredible deep dives into big important elements that are happening in the tec space become an economist pod casts plus subscriber with a one month retrial or take the whole year for just forty nine dollars the pod casts deliver the analysis wit and integrity of the economists journalism and audio giving you the freedom to listen to sound reasoning while you go about your day tune into the world with

common podcast plus and start listening today search economist pod casts plus or head to the app store to download the economist and get your first month free i have diabetes i'm at risk for newly conklin pneumonia i have asthma i'm at risk to if you're not

and eighteen or older with chronic conditions like asthma diabetes c o p d or heart disease or are sixty five or older you are at increased risk for pneumococcal pneumonia ask your doctor or pharmacist about prevnar twenty pneumococcal twenty vaillant conjugate vaccine a pfizer vaccine that can help protect you against pneumococcal pneumonia in just one dose even if you've already been vaccinated with other pneumonia vaccines prevnar twenty may help provide added protection pregnant and twenty is approved for adults to help prevent infections from twenty strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia continued approval may depend on a supportive study don't get prevnar twenty if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or it's ingredients adults with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine side effects include pain and swelling at the injection site fatigue headache i saw enjoying pain for full prescribing information please call one a five five to one three two one three aid or visit prisoner twenty dot com last minute holiday shopping take the stress

out of the season with sea from pre wrapped gives our presence and premium box chocolates to over fifty same day photo gets there's something for every one left on your list and with free cbs pick up in order online and pickup in store in as little as one hour for quality can be indians and the last minute holiday magic cbs as you covered visit cbs dot com slash holiday for details dear back next up sometimes the guy who helped build the thing ends being very wrong about the thing so case i'm talking about robert or bob met calf but when he was a graduate student madcap worked on arpanet so those who are unfamiliar with arpanet you can think of this sort of the predecessor to the internet

you had a lot of engineers and scientists and researchers who work to create means to network different computers together even of those peters where far apart from one another this aid nontrivial task in all these different computers worked on different operating systems they you could think of as they communicated a different languages so you had to create away a common ground for these different machines the elder send and receive information in a useful way with it or other machines and then how does that information travel across the communications lines you had to come up with ways for that to be foolproof or at least as close to full pay as you could get because if it were something whereas justa a solid connection and there was an robin and that that connection then what happens to the process these are all practical problems that the arpanet folks had to solve and the work

would become a foundational component for the internet which would follow after arpanet met caffeine an early definitive work describing different ways to use the arpanet he also but information resources and instructions to make use of arpanet he would then go on to take a job at xerox park that's a facility that i've talked about in recent tech stuff episodes very important indeed yes technological innovations although xerox itself had a reputation for failing to capitalize on the develop it's the came out a park and while he was at park he developed ethernet that's the cable based malagigi that allows data transfers between connected computers he based it off of the aloha net there was used by the university of hawaii which rely on radio waves rather than cables to send signals back and forth but he had built upon the technologies of a low on that to develop ethernet ok let's flesh board

i ninety five five years after the u s government had already decommissioned arpanet and have been shut down a couple years earlier a decommissioned in nineteen ninety the internet itself was actually really taking off it was helped in large part by the development of the worldwide web which it wasn't a thing when the internet was first coalescing but became a thing in the early nineties and on december fourth nineteen ninety five them is in infoworld published an article written by met calf in which the work visionary said quote i predict the internet which only recently got this section here and infoworld will soon go spectre kill early supernova and in ninety ninety six catastrophically collapse in quote so

met gaff thought the internet was growing beyond the technological and economic capacities that would be needed to support the that he invasion a scenario in which the money you just wouldn't be there to build out the end structure that would be required to i'll for the explosive growth he didn't deny that the internet was growing he just said it's going to reach it being point where we are not able to supply it with the technology needed to let it run and it's gonna collapse under its own weight we also predicted that we were going to see a lot more vulnerabilities in the internet that would facilitate security breaches and that would convince folks of the internet would be too dangerous right once you have couple a big security breaches people would say oh we can't romeo we cannot rely on the internet because if we do we're going to potentially lose everything so he proclaimed that he would even eat his words if he were proven wrong

in april nineteen ninety seven bob met gaff prove to be a man of his word while i had tat conference met calf had a cake wheeled out his call was printed on icing on the cake some versions of the story say that the crowd kind of turned against him saying that he was taking the easy way out and so least one version of story says that he then had the actual physics article on paper brought out and then put the article in a blunder with some water and blended into a kind of slurry and then he ate the goop but either way he reported lead did in fact eat his own words and admitted that he had been wrong which i totally respect madcap failed to predict the innovations that would drive the internet's expansion and again that really gets back to that heart of a lot of wrong predictions that we leaned so heavily on basing our gas of what comes next by looking at her we do things currently

but obviously this fails to take into account new techniques and technologies and ideas which let's be fair makes sense because if we could predict new techniques and technologies and ideas we would already have them like like you can't you can't fault people for not guessing something that has been thought up yet because ways they would have thought it up of course technologists aren't the only ones who get tech predictions wrong economists can do our real fine job of gettin stuff wrong to lie also referencing a technologist perhaps in the process see and ninety ninety eight an economist named paul krugman headed air prediction for the internet and he end a in our previous example of robert met calf krugman wrote an article in a magazine titled red herring and said quote the growth of the internet will slow drastically

the flaw in met calf's law which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proposed to the square of the number of participants becomes apparent most people have nothing to say to each other by two thousand five or so it will become clear that the internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machines end quote i saw this does raise the question about met caps law what is that well actually comes from an observation the robert mcafee made way back in nineteen eighty which was at the fine she'll value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the where the number of connected communication devices on that work sometimes we simplify this to say the number of users on a network but really more fair to say nodes or a connected devices essentially mecca saying that the more devices you have connected within a network the more possible

connections exist between those devices and we can express this mathematically with the equation of times and minus one divided by two and in this case would be the number of users or connected devices or nodes however you want to think of it so we only have two devices right let's say that we ve got a direct connection between device one a device to but that's it well we would in our equation we would use to in place of ants are equation will be two times to minus one which has won and the divided by so then that means we get to terms one divided by two that means eventually just get one that's the number of possible connections between these two connected devices you only have one possible connection but let's say we ve got twenty connected devices on this network will that means now are equation is twenty times twenty minus one divided by to see that means it's twenty times nineteen then divide by

you or we get a hundred ninety possible connections so as you add more users or devices to a network the network's value increases significantly but krugman was saying if no one has anything interesting to say to each other then you don't really have any added value there and then growth is going to slow down and this going to show the mecca law is flawed clearly the era of social media has proved krugman way wrong peep spend all day not saying anything to each other at least loving of of substance and it is going lagging busters either as some platforms are slowing down others are picking up krugman set himself had said that he was just trying to be provocative and some when you do try to be brief could have you end up just being very wrong and he just have there very very wrong about this now sometimes we predictions of doom and gloom for someone

here's to be driven by having a vested interest in a competing technology they say that technology is going to fail part because there they are supporting a different technology there's a quote free quickly and also incorrectly attributed way hollywood movie producer named darrell f zanuck he was one of them responsible for creating the film company twentieth century pictures among a lot of other things but the story goes that zanuck famous the and incorrectly dismissed the impact of television saying quote video is it able to hold on to the market it captures after the first six months people see get tired of staring at a plywood box every night end quote now clearly the but these studios saw television as eighth an existential threat i mean why would be we'll go to the cinema to spend a few where's watching movies and cartoons and newsreels if they could get so too many of those things just from home through the television

for a while films studios sod television as being a truth to their very existence at least until movie sue you started to consolidate with tv studious so of course would be delicious deploy to a movie mogul who stuck his neck out to proclaim that television would be no more than a passing fad to be proven very wrong and television would become an incredibly important component in communications now i'm not saying that no one at all ever made these quotes apart from like like i'm not saying they were just invented but it certainly doesn't appear to have been zanuck he is not the person who said these things though i quote investigator actually looked into this particular statement the earliest version they found from the statements about video and the plywood box actually from a wall street journal article back in nineteen fifty one and it

it is to separate statements from two different people so the view yo is unable to hold onto the market it captures after the first six months statement supposedly came from a movie executive based out of new york the phrase people soon tired of staring at plywood box every night came from quote a san franciscan end quote infected doesn't even get specific enough to say it's a movie executive in san francisco although we can assume that was the case however either way zanuck the person who often gets attributed with this these pair of quote the combined into a single quote he was based in hollywood so presume lee he was neither of the unnamed individuals who pay i did the wall street journal with these quotes so zanuck is it in the clear still assuming the wall street journal reporter was not inventing quotations of thin air there were to be all in the movie business who are brazenly

predicting the downfall of television now it was during a time when movie theatres we are starting to see a rise in attendance there had been multiple years of audience drop off so like four years in a row they saw smaller audiences for movie theatres and then things were drawing up a nineteen fifty one sir it's possible that movie executives chopping their cigars and her team he took a swing in us but it's not stay in iran lay my cigar with another hundred dollar bill or something admittedly have a very cartoonish imagination they probably weren't saying that but it does make it sound like movie executives worth the king oh tell him john took a temporary hit out of our business but as it turns out people further experience in the theatres tv is too expensive for the average person etc etc and so now we're just dismissing it and of course it would

out the television was not just a passing fad at least not a short one you could view that may be because of cord cutting and stuff the hit it a very long passing fad butter but answer at the time it wasn't just a passing fad and that predicting that people would get tired of tv and come back to the movie theatres was just an optimistic prediction on me half of the executives another example of so and making a prediction when he had a vested interest in the outcome is steve bomber the farmers the eu of microsoft bomb was actually employ number thirty at microsoft when he joined in nineteen eighty and he became ceo of the company in two thousand his presentations are the stuff of legend if you ve not had the experience of digging up a clip of steve bomber on staff egypt some event over on youtube he d give that a girl there a lot different ones the famous one is developers developers developers thus just one

you should check him out just make sure your volume is turned down a bit because that dude loves deal and scream and in time this is a good way to describe him anyway in two thousand seven bomber reacted to something unbeknownst to pretty much everyone at the time was actually going to lead to enormous changes in the tax base and that as the debut of the apple iphone bomber said quote there is no chance that the iphone is going to get any significant market share no chance end quote and he went on to call the iphone a quote five for dollar subsidized item end quote he put it that microsoft software would be in most phones on the market and that while apple could make a lot of money selling phones they would not make up a significant amount of the market share they would maybe have two or three percent on the market at best so michael our strategy was alive like what we would see from google a little later on which was decree

the operating system in the software for smartphones but to leave the manufacturing to the handset companies always taking an all in approach rather than licensing software to businesses that made the hardware bomb i was convinced that was the bad waiting oh they made way more sense to just focus on the software and licence it out to the hardware companies but as it turned out apple strategy work like gangbusters into seven apple soul around one point three nine million iphones that was the year that they introduce it they didn't offer it for sale the back half of the year in two thousand eight apple sold eleven point three six million iphones so more than around ten million more than they had the year before by the end the next year that doubled again at around twenty point seven three million unit salt in fact apple saw sales numbers increase every year until you get two thousand sixteen because

in two thousand and fifteen the company sold two hundred thirty one point two two million iphones and in two thousand and sixteen it sold quote unquote only two hundred eleven point one eight oh yeah units still more than two hundred million units backdrop of around twenty million as for microsoft the company pushed hard to try to establish a foot in smartphone operating systems just never really worked out for the company companies making windows phone devices in twenty seventeen and the company completely that support for the operating system in twenty twenty two ok we're gonna take another key break but we still have some more bad predictions to get through hey podcast listeners returning for season for is the restless ones and original podcast presented by t mobile for business and i heart radio

join me as i sit down for in depth discussions with the people at the intersection of technology and business learn of their unique missions and challenges to enhance optimization and drive their organizations forward we reveal how today's forward thinking leaders continue to thrive and a world of ever changing technology here from those on the leading edge of business share industry expertise and how a strong inflexible network lays the foundation for positive changes in their fields revolutions and customer experience and employee enable meant to ideas with the power to change the game and even the world they are building a bridge to what's next and adopting transfer but the technologies like five g to create a more connected and meaningful future today check out new results of the restless ones away

on the radio web apple podcast or wherever you listened broadcasts paper boys peddling down the street chucking newspapers male carrier stuffing mailboxes the internet the way we get our news is always changing but no matter how its delivered the economist has remained the global trusted source for one hundred eighty years and now

with the economists new economist pod casts plus subscription you can get your news another way enjoy unlimited access the economists complete noise cancelling pod gas collection weekday additions of their current affairs pod cast the intelligence plus a new weaken show special limited series and all their popular weekly podcast some business china american politics science and technology personally i like the babbage bond cast that's their technology pod guess they have incredible deep dives into big important elements that are happening in the tec space become an economist podcast spliced subscriber with a one month retrial or take the whole year for just forty nine dollars the pod casts deliver the analysis wit and integrity of the economists journalism and audio giving you the freedom to listen to sound reasoning while you go about your day tune into the world with

economists pod casts plus and start listening to day search economist pod casts plus or head to the app store to download the economist and get your first month free i have diabetes i'm at risk for noon the cockle pneumonia i have asthma i met risk too if you

container older with chronic conditions like asthma diabetes seo pity or heart disease or are sixty five order you are an increased risk for new mechanical pneumonia ask your doktor pharmacists about prisoners twenty numa cockle twenty baling conjugal vaccine a fighter wreck seen that can help protect you against numa couple pneumonia in just one dose even if you ve already been vaccinated with other pneumonia vaccines prisoner twenty may help provide added protection prevalent twenty is approved for adults to help prevent infections from twenty strains of the bacteria that cause numa cockle pneumonia continued approval may depend on a supportive steady don't get prisoner twenty if you ve had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients adults with weakened immune systems may have a lower responds to the vaccine side effects include payments willing at the objections i ve headache muscle enjoying pain for full prescribing information please call one a five five to one three two one three aid or visit prisoner twenty dot com last minute holiday shopping take us down

some of the season with cbs from pre wrapped gift for our presence and premium box chocolates to over fifty same day photo gets there's something for every one left on your list and the free cbs pick up in order online and pick up in store in this little as one hour for quality can indians at the last minute holiday magic thea as you covered visit cbs dot com slash holiday for details we are back and just before the break i was talking about steed bomber dismissing the iphone and of course it turned out that he was totally off i granted its like he could have said that the iphones gotta be a huge head he was leading a major competitor to apple at the time so what or he believed that the iphone truly was just going to be a failure or not i can't say but i certainly don't think he could have said anything different

anyway apple also was not immune to making bad predictions steve jobs a man through force of personality in a famous intolerance for deviation from his vision return to a struggling apple in the nineteen nineties and set it on a path to become accompany those today worth more than two point eight trillion dollars at the time of this recording anyway back in two thousand three apple introduce the itunes music store for the first time though the company had already introduced the ipod a couple of years earlier but oh it was introducing an online digital music store where you could buy albums and tracks either deport over to an ipod or to listen from your computer jobs believed the customers wanted to own their music he was dismissive of the business model that was being used by rhapsody and by press play both of which offered description services to customers to get access to music

oh you pay a certain amount of money each month and we are able to listen to music that is covered by these different companies jobs said quote we think subscriptions are the wrong path one of the reasons we think this is because people bought their music for as long as we can remember we bought our music on l peace we bought our music on cassettes we bought our music on cds and we people want to buy their music on the internet bye bye an downloads just like they bought l bees it's like they bought cassettes just like that bought cds their use to buying their music and there you to getting a broad set of rights with it you own your music never goes away we own your music you have a broadside for personal use rights you can listen to it however you want end quote and it's not like jobs was wrong right people do like to own stuff i think

safe to say that most people definitely prefer owning music to losing access to something because a licensing deal has expired i am sure everyone out there has had that experience where something that you to be covered on one of the streaming services you listen you either listen to your watch or whatever goes away as a licensing deal expired or because the company that was in charge of it decided to get rid of it because of sticky residual deals i'm looking at you max zack love who would remove staff so that he wouldn't have to worry about paying residuals two people anyway we know that people prefer being able to does their stuff they hate it when the stuff goes away but despite all that the serbs russian based business model has seen in radical success it's a very convenient thing instead of buying track by tracker album by album you get access to it huge library of material in fact it was so successful that

what would introduce its own music subscription service in two thousand fifteen notably steve absurd passed away in two thousand and eleven so it didn't happen within his lifetime again he was famously dismissive of it when he introduced though the music store but in fifteen we got apple music which would expand include not just music tracks but also video oh also journalists get stuff wrong a lot to goodness knows you ve a lot wrong although i really shouldn't reference myself as a journalist i am not really a journalist i dont have those qualifications but david poke wrote a piece for the new york times about apple in september two thousand six that peaceful called iphone rumours and starts off with quote everyone's always asking me when apple will come out with a cellphone my answer is probably never end quote and of course apple introduce the iphone the very next year but if you re

folks pc lays out some really good arguments about why it would make thence to be sceptical apple would release a phone one of his really big points is that true communications carriers you know the companies that actually own the infrastructure that allows communication across devices your your eighty and tease your verizon's etc they have but a power when it comes to hardware telecommunications companies can actually approve or deny features on devices essentially they do this by saying hey what we're not gonna let your hardware work on our network if you include that feature dont want to support that feature we will not allow you to use that device on our network if they dont like something so pokes point was that apple was not the type of company that would compromise or allow some other business that level can oh into their processes and that was reasonable like me you can't imagine steve jobs being told

in no uncertain terms like we're not going to allow that you have to design it this way so it seemed to be a reasonable conclusion to say that paul was not going to release a phone in the first place but as it turned out apple worked very closely with a t and t for the launch of the iphone it was an a t and t exclusive here in the united states when it first launched but common sense we have suggested apple would not have manage such a relationship and that the company would have instead focused on technologies where it would maintain near total control of the user experience so you can understand why poke made that better your statement just turned out to be completely wrong but again just based on the information that was available it was an understandable one it is really fun to go back over these kind of old statements and old predictions and see with the benefit of hindsight how off they were released its fun to me again i used to make predictions and i was

then just as wrong or sometimes far more wrong than any of the examples of cited here i think that some of you might even remember one of those i famously predicted i found no famous that's that's give myself too much credit i i am very much predict the ipad was going to be a flop i could not see the i succeeding and now because tablet can be there have been around for agents even touch screen what computers had been around for quite some time but no one had managed to make one that appealed to the brain consumer market the tablet it is that were in use were meat products they were used in very specific applications like add some in the sciences you had some in medicine but you didn't really have a consumer tablet that had seen great success and i just couldn't imagine people wanting something of that for factor too big to be easily

he portable unless you're carrying a bag around two small and to limit to be really useful if you wanted it for something like productivity because typing screen is far slower than typing on a keyboard i just assumed that even apple wouldn't be able to make tat like computer she'll success for the consumer market and i would totally wrong i doubted steve jobs as marketing ability i doubted apples engineering and making approach that had a very compelling user interface and my prediction was one hundred percent incorrect and i own it that was yeah i felt like i had base it on some solid ground but at all turned out to be quicksand i guess so it can happen anyone i dont think i'll be bringing the predictions episodes back anytime soon who had caused me huge amounts of stress because it's hard right

it involves doing a lot of work to just look at what is the current state of technology and even working that i have an incomplete picture because obviously there are people and companies working on things that are not yet publicly own and so i have an incomplete picture from that respect and basing predictions off of an incomplete picture is even more shoddy than justino having to come it that you can't anticipate the nation that's going to follow in the months ahead so i don't think i'll bring it back we'll see maybe toward the end of the year i think a hack i'll give it another shot and i'll see if i can predict what will happen in twenty twenty four but honestly when i look back at the last like three years where it when i stopped doing predictions episodes i see so many examples of stuff i never would have predicted i i definitely

predicted elon musk purchasing twitter for example that would not have been on my list i am not sure that i would have predicted a you know everyone knows my opinion of elon musk is pretty dodgy but i don't think i would have predicted that elon musk taking over twitter would aid to such the train wreck a slowed degrading situation for twitter at this point as the company appears to be falling part i don't know that would predicted that either so yeah we'll see if if i'm feelin spunky the year maybe i'll give it another go but it is interesting to keep an eye out for these maybe i'll also do another episode where i'll take good predictions stuff that people thought was coming across the horizon it turned out they were mostly right or may be completely right that would be fun to it look at the ones where we got it totally wrong as a kind of brings

humility into the situation but once in a while people make a prediction and boy howdy they get it back on the money so maybe i should of trying to an episode it's based on that too in the meantime i hope you are all well and i will it's you again really said the tech stuff is i heart radio production for more pod as for my heart radio visit the i heart radio app apple podcasts wherever you listen to your favorite jobs the way we get our news changes but for one

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