Welcome to step you should now. Production of Iheart radios have stuff works, very unwelcome departure. Some Josh clerk nurse chose to reach a brain. We then we ve got the scoop juries around here somewhere, Give me the stuff. You should know off to a great start, she's in her office. She is she's got this most thing going on: it's like the covered special. That's and this was this has been one. I've been wanting to do since two thousand. Sixteen, why, if it seems like the the kind of went down on it and now it's the fires back up again in election season, thought now better time than to talk election polling and this weird sort of black magic

which is really not black magic at all and it see the pulling and even really that off two thousand. Sixteen knows there is a furious fear will talk about say where there's a furious, action by the media, just left, polling and pollsters out to dry, saying like you, terrible. Your whole craft is, is you why do us as the posters went back after election, I hadn t done succeed, which, by the way, is a bit of a surprise everybody involved, I think so, including whereas in it when the pollsters went back and look to their stuff is a way to make. No. This is this, is all fine. It was you guys, media you screwed up, you don't

pulling is or what it does or how to talk about it. Most importantly, yeah and then you public, you have no idea. What's going on you to see some percentages and yard medically led to some conclusions in this way, also in part that the media was misrepresenting it, some poles were very good and then the public in general just needs to be a bit more educated on statistics to understand what they're. Here, that's what we're here for cuz I I took statistics three times in college. The same course Georgia at George Idle hands like one of those classes. I ain't it introduced statistics right yet boy aided. The professor. Finally, I walked up to her on the last day, the third time as a police, and she bump my d up to see I was I'd, never looked back so say you have a one in four chance and you like, but what does that mean what is before? But so, if I can

understand, as are doing some research than anybody, can understand, at least the gist of it enough to understand, pulling in and not be taken in by bad representation of what Paul results are yes. So if you remember in twenty sixteen, there were pollster saying I'm sorry in, they that wrong. Over and over again, you had media saying that Hilary, clear is gonna win in a landslide. She got an eighty five percent chance to win some satisfies ninety five he's, gonna win the popular vote by three percentage points all the other battleground states in the MID West, he's gonna win those narrowly and now work out. That way and, like you said there was a fairer over. How could anyone be this wrong with appalling in they made silver, who everyone probably knows at this point you who is his name. Is it a data specialist and runs the

thirty eight blog and said you know what pulling is flawed. And that's probably the first thing that everyone should understand is appalling, is a little bit flawed state polling, as is deaf. A little more flood, the National Polling But- Here's the deal, everybody these poles from twenty sixteen were not only not so far off historically dating back to since nineteen, seventy two they actually before, little better than a lot of elections, Yan the state pulling while worse than average, wasn't that far off from the average error rate. So what What do you want? So there's a lot of stuff like we said there is a lot of postman That was done on the two thousand sixteen poles in what was wrong about- was got right, we'll talk about that later, but the point is their overall. It wasn't a far off, and so the idea isn't that the Poles failure

but there's something inherently flawed with pulling or that there's even something inherently wrong with the media like oh, I go on record here, especially in this climate, the media is not our enemy, like any healthy democracy needs. A vital, robust, independent media is free buys as an objective two do reality and good injustices possible, but there is also such a thing is a twenty four hour new cycle and you got to feel that they are given the rise of opinion. News in pundits in in basically trying to capture is much market share as possible, which is definitely the wrong. Track for media in general, but I just want to go. Record, while we're gonna be kind of beating the media up a little bit. That does not mean that the media is inherently flawed or evil or seeks to to take you and your family and family dog, so silver goes back and a bunch of people go back and look at.

History and kind of what went wrong here in twenty sixteen. As far as the fallen goes, as you know, we went back twelve, the past twelve presidential cycles since nineteen. Seventy two and he said the polling air was four point one. He said, and twenty sixteen national pulling error was three point, one so technically by a full point. It was a full point better. He said we predicted that she would win the popular vote by three percentage points. She actually did when the popular vote by two percentage points, the state pole. Where the real difference maker, they actually did underperform at a five point, two error rate and that doesn't sound like that much, I think the overall error rate for state pull since nineteen. Seventy two is four point. Eight. So four point, eight point: two doesn't sound like much, but if you're talking about percentage of error and just a handful of swing states that can make some look like a landslide, even though you lose a popular vote, that is exactly what happened right. This exactly

because you to remember trumped in when the popular vote, he won the Electoral College and it came down to those swing states, but the fact that they were off just by point four points but on the average, for the error rate goes to show you just how close that race actually was, which again is the was it of how it was being broadcast throughout the election. It was supposed to be a landslide, like Hilary claim might as well just be like taking me limits for curtains in the oval office. Right now like it was just that set. So presented. One way when, in reality, if you really looked at the polls in the pulling results, if you looked at them with a sober face it, it was a much closer race, then it Heerd, then it was being broadcast diamond, had a sober face since that night, so we should talk about the margin of error in pulling anytime. You see a pole, it's U Data

but the margin of error, it's usually plus plus or minus three or four and That is on each side. So for each candidate pole In other words, it could be a potential like seventy eight point swing and still within that margin of error. So when Trump is winning states by a point, two percent Our general point, five point: seven percent margin, well well well well, within the margin of error right right, so that margin of error by the way is just built him we'll talk about it a little more in a little bit, but it's like there's just no way around it if to to get around any margin where you would have to live. They go through and interview every. Go voter in America and think the evidence, are their other data perfectly without any Miss keys or anything like that, and it's just impossible so everyone, steps there. Any Paul is going to have a margin air, but you want to keep it within the plus or minus three points right

four year, so a little history appalling we ve always been pretty soon bound by poles in this country, we put a lot of stock and poles, especially the an initial race. The word straw If he's ever heard that that comes from the idea that you hold up a piece of straw to see which way the wind is blowing, so a straw poll is kind of like here's. How things stand today Something like this is where the way the wind is blowing today on this matter, yeah there's a kind of informal. They used to take em like on train cars. Journalists would ask people who they were on the train with whom they are going to vote for nothing like formal thing, but it it was it it does reveal how long standing our fascination with poles really really is. Yeah got pretty serious Nineteen thirty's, specifically the nineteen thirty six election, where a literary digest. It was that it was a pretty big magazine. The time pulled it subscribers. It's kind of uneven, seeing this in its

They predicted a landslide wind for republican Republican ALF Landon over fifty are so, If you ve, never heard of our land in the EU, why, because our land and did not beat empty, in the magazines editor said you know we didn't even think about the fact that we just pulled are subscribers and that their wealthy people earlier wealthier on average and probably going about Republican, so Landon. Was there man right so you go out even today and just interview Republicans say: hey who you're gonna vote for and they take their results and apply it to the entire population of the nation. You ve got a flawed pole, and that's what literary digested, but in doing so they establish this kind. They pointed out a real design flaw that now is just one of the first basic thing: that anybody conducting a pole gets rid of that right? Gallop

came on the scene, they galloped onto the scene. So sorry, and they were one of the first big pulling companies to say. Aren't we gotta get this right? We gotta get a representation of all of America here, so we're gonna send our people door to Door Regan every zip code in America did that from nineteen thirty five to nineteen. Eighty four in got basely within about three percentage points do a pretty good job, but was really expensive. So in the eighties, in the mid eighties, they switch to calling people on telephone. My outwits, which I mean that that still today, that is the guy Standard is for a human being to dial up another human being and ask them some questions and what we'll talk a little more about it, but what what gallop does and what pew does and what a few others, too is. It's called random sampling were probability sampling, which is where you basically leave it to chance that any

voter registered voter in America is going to get a phone call from you so that what what guy It is doing and what pew does is called random sample your probability sampling where the The voter in America has an equal chance of receiving a file call from gallop from pew and being asked these questions and it worked it. Oh pretty well for a while when they move from in person over to the phone, because they were still asking people questions and they could still get their answers and harass them, which is a big thing, is we'll see about these? This type of sampling The problem is: when people started to use, or I d. They stop picking up the phone as much, and so the response rate went down dramatically, so they would call people using random digit dialing, which is a computer system where it fed in an area code, and then the first three digits

and then randomly DOB. Alas, for so you got a pretty start there on the random sampling, but even then said. You know at women to answer the phone more than men so truly randomize it whenever whoever picks up the phone we have today follow up and say we want to talk to the person in the house. He said the most recent birthday right, further randomize ing got a kind of a laugh about this because I dont know ever literally ever seen my father pick up a telephone in his life at least growing up for the first eighteen years of my life, I dont think I ever saw him answer the phone. It's all ham, radio, her not he went into that, but just not one time he would just let it ring if no one was around and my mom was around to answer it in granted. It was you we never for him. No never called spoke to him that I picked up on that and my friends use to get really frustrated back before texting that I would just never my phone and I

This thought it was an option like when the phone rings doesn't mean your obligated. It just means now you have enough. You can answer, not all technically that True, I mean like it depends. No, you don't have to answer the phone, but it depends on you know who in your life, could possibly be calling you, I didn't think it was rude or anything. I just thought it was literally like you know, I'm gonna hedge, my bats here that one of my is it stuck on the side of the road they can leave, message and they are I'll, go get em, so what you're talking about Chuck is worth calling non response and that's factored into the response rate which with foam pulling from ninth nineteen eighty until the nineteen Ninetys. It was me enjoyable, you think the response rate peaked at thirty six percent and nineteen ninety seven, which is good or bad,

Now it's down to like nine percent because, like I said, people have cholera d and if some unknown numbers calling you typically don't answer and that actually affects things, because there is a certain kind of person who answers a phone, no matter. What, and they are not like single American and that actually factors into with a kind of pull your connecting plus So you want like a certain amount of responses. I think of a sample size. You want a minimum of eight hundred survey responses and back in the day when you go to thirty six percent response rate, meaning thirty six percent of those people, you called would answer the phone and go through all of the questions and answer them fully incomplete the survey with since it is down to nine percent you for having to call it in two thousand and twenty five hundred people too to up to. Nine thousand people now just to get a hundred surveys completed and that made the

thing a lot more expensive on the one hand, because it was expensive, it meant that there were fewer and fewer companies that can conduct these poles. Which meant that the poles you were seeing where more and more legitimate. But on the other hand, it also usually decrease sample size will be because, as is gallop pointed out like you can find a fiddle with the numbers a little bit with a smaller response rate in smaller sample size. Yet the lead, the robot cause because of expense, because the people answering their phone as much and those systems I mean I love, how diverse put it he said. They they range from hey two terrible and how well they work online, holes these other new techniques, but I think to take a break and then talk about I found the very interesting ways. They further randomize. This thing from this point forward: bread for this

support for this. Podcast comes from one, Turkey Kentucky Straight bourbon whisky, let's tune into their one on one with Jamal a real bar tender from old fort. Word and Atlanta magnet fashion today with wild birds. One or one pages This is a very well class a cocktail hour fashion. It has that perfect bonus, wild Turkey, Walter he's doing. Company boards broken talking copyright, twenty Kobori American you're you're, never compromise drink responsibly. All right, so we already talked about the fact,

they randomly called someone, and then they take one further step on that. That call by saying, let me speak with whoever had the most recent birthday. Even if it's, I guess, your dear three her whole, rite aid. In one other thing I had kind of made mention to it that I have to interject dude, like harassing people like if you've been picked by this computer. If your phone numbers been picked they're going to keep calling you in calling you, and that is because, as a person who doesn't normally participate in phone surveys, Yuri specific kind of person that you, you can't be left out of the population, because you represent a large number of people and they want your opinion. So part of this phone standard of calling people is to call them over and over. In over again to basically harass them into participating to get their answers for the survey, because it is important, if not more important. Some times than the people who, like oh yeah, I'd love to answer this phone survey, two totally different kinds of people, yet

absolutely, and I was totally getting by the way to the listener. When I said they will speak to a three year old, they they ask the most recent birthday of someone a voting age. Obviously, her eye, So then you ve got a pretty pretty decent random sampling to begin with, and then you have to start. The process of waiting which comes in a lot of different forms. If you want an example, like a really good political, Paul. It's gonna be paid for by a neutral source is now going to be like you know, seen in Polar Fox NEWS, Bowler super back or anything like that you can have a random sample of the public, which we just talked about. You're going be dialing cell phones and landmines. These days, that's a big one So I will ask you if you have a cell phone and a landline, and if you say yes, I have both they're going to adjust your response year, based on the fact that, You had a higher chance of being selected because you have two numbers that the computer could have picked.

Right, and another thing is like you mention they're gonna keep colony The best ones use live, interviewer still and then what they want to do in this last one is really important. Is you they're gonna, try improve the accuracy of the results by waiting the response to match what they want to do this match a real world demographic age, race, your income level, your education level and all that stuff is factored in, and all this Please wait out because well we'll talk about it, but you know There are many different kinds of Americans and if you want a really good sampling of different kinds of Americans, you're gonna, like, like you, said it fidget with the numbers to make it a true representative population right so um, because even if you just get it actually right with demographically and waited which, like you so we'll talk about more insecure

still have that margin of error. And again that's that you know fifty two percent plus or minus three points. That means that it can be fifty five percent or it could be forty nine percent. They don't know but somewhere. Between that. Most of your answers are going to be the exact, correct answers somewhere in there. That's what that means with that that margin of error and the reason that that's built in is because it is basically impossible to perfectly represent the larger population through random sampling, you're, just not going to pick everybody correctly. Just by the fact that it's random and it's a sample yeah, that's important, because, like that's, why you're here much has been made over a double digit lead in a Nepal which Biden, heads sort of sin, recently, I know it's, it's got no outsider since then, but you know

Biden was up, I think, like ten percentage points, people were flipping out because you know, like we said it's plus or minus four for each candidate. So that's a total of eight, and so basically press started screaming. Like he's outside of the margin of error, everybody nothing can be done right, yeah now, the exact within that margin. I saw PBS News, our they interview Mark Shields and David Brooks Books. Is the New York Times calmness and I think marches in independent columnist and one of them actually and this is in July a mirror is clearly made up its mind. He's gonna be the next President House, like it Jill. Why did you not learn anything from two thousand sixteen or unit? I couldn't believe that those words- and there is also a matter of factly yeah, its irresponsible There'S- been studies about this too. That have suggested that that words like that

that poles, that say, ninety nine percent chance of winning that this kind of stuff like actually has negative impact on the leader, because it makes people think why Don T gone voter by us, gonna go vote in the turnout might be lower than otherwise there's also people s who'd. Well, there's people who d that they say yes, it makes sense intuitively and anecdotally, but we yet to actually see genuine data that that says clearly that this has this effect, but it's something that still being studied right now, whether it actually does or not well analysis on article the other day about the the quote: unquote silent majority, and that reason. Those poles were so wrong back then, in their saying, are probably wrong. Now is because there are their day. They say that there's substantial block of voters who very privately and secretly vote for Trump yeah,

the term for them among pollsters, a shy trump voters, the ends of age, a wounded admit that there are going to vote for trumpet they're going to vote for tramping that that affects pulse. I saw that that's actually not been proven to actually exist, but I think it is a pity There is a really great, pure gold. This stuff is speaking to you at all: go check out pews key things to know about election pulling in the. U s now. Has it two great links that you should follow in there and there's also, sigh line, they have served. I'm pulling, which is a guide for journalists to pulling but I found out you don't actually to be be to read it read it. So if you wanna go check those out they out some great. I gum like to some breakdowns of some of this stuff we're talking about, but also about how to read poles in what to trust and look for in general and an little known fact you was actually originally called pew until nineteen seventy six one star wars came out

and they, like. We got to change your name, guys get do it, man is Darrow Rama Day with her, so back the waiting thing and by the way we should mention that gallop said if they wanted to increase that sample size. Actually get the margin of error down to like plus or minus two that they could do that, but that would be like a literal. A hundred percent increase in the cost like everyone just please live with, plus or minus three or four point yeah. I know everybody generally doesn't and Davies. Is this really good example? Dave Ruth helped us out with this, and he said that this is this. Margin of error is best understood where, if you selected a hundred marbles, five there's a jar of five hundred red five hundred blue marbles, and you pick out a hundred of them. You might pick out fifty of each one time and await five hundred. Five hundred mortals. Oh, no, hurry thousand marble smiling islands, yes

a thousand marbles five hundred a red and five hundred a blue. Your task chuck is to pick out a hundred Joel began a hundred, fifty red, fifty or blue and ass. They do it again, and this time is forty seven and fifty three million keep saying again again right. Smack my writing crop on the desk. That's why you're sitting here and I do it a hundred times- is a super turned on the good a hundred times, because, dear leader, two me too right at the end, you get a little bell curve and basically a plus or minus four right, so yet almost all of them. This is What's a ninety five percent confidence in almost all of them were going to fall in that Bell curve. There's going to be so, large is gonna, be that one time where was his absolutely insane, you actually picked one hundred red meat both randomly blindfolded than his jar that that sit that so insignificant, statistically to such an hour.

But almost all we're gonna be in there. So, when you're pulling like this large group of people like american voters and ninety five percent of them, are falling within a couple of percentage points of either side of this, this middle, you can pretty much feel confident about that, and that is the basis of of election your political power of all pulling really they have this built in margin that they know exists, but everybody can live with it. The problem is when you're hovering around fifty percent. Mark you talking about a two party system here. One of them has like fish, one percent, the other one, is forty. Nine percent, but there's a plus or minus of like two points. That means flip a coin: America it, which means we have no idea and some people with will waive do polling, because what you're showing their is not who's going to win. That's not the point of pulling, but the point of pulling is to take us. Nap, shot of how America or whoever your polling is feeling that moment about who to elect about what laws to pass

religion about the Cleveland Indians. It doesn't matter right, like the that's what a pole does, but you can pervert poles and make the talk a different language and say: hey. He look of his percentage. You take these poles converting into something else. Now you have something like a ninety five percent chances person gonna win, go shalt that Wolf Blitzer the Pulitzer goes and shouted his loud as you can. We need to talk a little bit more about waiting. I mentioned earlier that there's other things. They do this sort of Tipp the scale, and that sounds like a bad terms. So I guess I shouldn't say that but things they do to make it equitable and a true representative. The american population, for instance African american voters make up twelve percent of voters, so they did a pole and in the end the only got six percent of respondents or african American. Then they just double it. Basically, If the respondents were overwhelmingly caucasian, they would

that down to their true representative number, which is about a think, sixty six percent The electorate is white and of eighty percent of white people respond or percent of the people that responder white than they're gonna kick that down and again. This is just adjusting the pole to the poor. Her weight, so you have a really legitimate snapshot, and you know it sounds crazy that there using a thousand people's responses. And drawing that out to the size of the voting population, America, it is, But if you're statistician- it isn't you I mean reliably works as long as you presented with plus or minus this margin of error as crazy as just an average Joe on the street. It does to be I that thousand people and we're supposed to know and extrapolate that in a statistician our number walks and data wants would say, yeah, that's exactly what that means shut up this

We all you, that's really. Oh you need, but it really is a testimony to the power of those those statistics and that data and waited Alice of Amelia White weightings really important. It goes far beyond just like age political party I think gallop uses, different variables, the New York Times, Sienna College, pulled uses ten. Like and they include things like marital status in homeownership pew uses, twelve, variables. There s things, If you have home internet access, you volunteer at or do you engage and volunteerism, and all of these things have been shown to be associated so like if you're, a white woman age, sixty five to seventy five, who volunteers twice a month and lives in the suburbs?

a very specific person where you there's a group of people out there who vote like a certain way, and you represent, like all those people with that, so they they'll wait the results based on these additional questions at your and they don't just ask you: do you think you are you going to vote for trump by? and there's also built into that question. A really important point. Are you going to vote? Yes? That's it that's a huge thing. I've talked about is one thing to pole, registered voters, but here in Amerika, somehow presidential elections only get about sixty percent turnout and man, which is shameful, shameful and crazy, but that's another bucket but so most of the really really good pulls drill down and. To get a real, real good representation of what might actually happen. They they try to draw down to, whether or not you are most likely to actually vote right. Here's. What will your pain is about, and they end

They generally take your word for it that you're telling the truth. Then oh shared do have like night. I think pew Pew has nine questions that they basically used to established that you are planning on voting like you're, actually going about you not for the hot air in a yeah. I don't know this questions are, but I imagine they have to do with deep Were you pulling places too? You have transportation stuff. I was they were going to be like. Are you really really gonna go? It was like question three kept adding release you. So they say you Ghali's these people who have been called and they have answered these quest and they have participated in the survey, whether they wanted to or not and there they finally done it built into that margin of error built into this pause that understandable margin of error. That just comes from the fact that it's a random sample right, but what

pew in any other legitimate group appalling will point out, is that the margin of error is actually greater than that. That, margin of error for the average pole according to pew. Is that it's something more like six points right, not not three or four, it's actually six and the reason why is built on top of that margin of error? That's that's automatic part of the pole, just by the virtue of it being a random sample, are things like the person typing in the wrong key track: human error at those kind of things at up or that the question is worded clearly enough that anybody who hears it knows the intent in knows what their answer is, that there is some sort of miscommunication involve. There's also thinks that they can't control for, like for who have pseudo opinions. Who don't want? Sound DOM, so they just answer yes or no. Sensibly, they really dont care about either way in because they don't I

They have an opinion that actually, that that waits things the wrong way So when you add all these stuff, these things up, you have these additional errors that lead to, different until a bias overall in in the the M, the pole, which can affect the outcome but again the companies that have the money to conduct like these genuinely big gold standard poles are, there. They know enough to know how to kind of factor control for those as much as possible. But still what pew says is if you like, sending to uphold somebody says plus or minus three points you should problem We go ahead and double that, in your mind, double it. In your mind, a double Europe, over your pleasure w fine the your margin air. So let's a break and we're gonna come back and talk about what exactly they think went wrong with US state

was right after this all right, so think it's generally acknowledged that twenty, sixteen the again I want to say, the polling was was off, but appeared. The pulling wasn't off, but the way it was reported on was off. But what really happened in twenty? Sixteen, what was off was estate polling and what they think they ve, like you said, gone back and obsessed over these poles since then, you know, cause they were already statistical walks, but when something like this happens, they really sort it worked into a danger and

the bottom of it. I mean people were calling for the end of pull your sight. It was a failed, her profession basis. Will your flowers like I'm getting rich off this man yeah? We can pulling Jimmy Pew is like this tat. Stop talking like that. So what have? in twenty sixteen is they think, is that lot of non educated white people came out in big big numbers for Donald Trump and that was a sort of a new, not a new factor, because they had always talked about college education, but a new factor in how outside factor that was it had never been that outsize, and so all these state pollsters, they didn't it and they didn't adjust their poles to reflect this fact that college educated people are more likely going to respond to these surveys, so their poles, We're just off

yeah. They knew that college educated people were more likely to respond to the surveys there that wasn't news to them. What caught them sleeping was that they had not picked up on the fact that this group of people Non called educated white voters were going to go to the polls in numbers like never before they were going to vote for tromp. They did not but that was brand new like that, didn't exist before Trump could, basically, crew brow up a new electorate that help get him elected, especially in battleground states like Wisconsin. In Michigan in Indiana, although Guinea any was issuing his appearance, but the fit these this group of voters that

did not exist, or this line between college educated and nine college educated. Why voters that that partisan Gulf hadn't existed before election day the day and pick up on it, and so they didn't wait those responses cause. They never had to wait. The responses before based on college educate. And yet so suburbs eggs herbs and especially where the rural vote counted like it had never counted before, which is obviously why you see What's going on right now, like a very hard, wish, by the trunk campaign to to get these these same people out again in the way that they do. That was the nicest where I can put it hit genuinely is so the up.

So the idea that that there was all is was already kind of a close re sit closer race them was being broadcast that these, these electoral, huge electoral, battleground states they got flipped that that was basically the reason that tromp was able to take the election. College, but that the idea is that these voters kind of came out of nowhere and voted for Trump and that there were some other things that happen to that. The pulsar didn't anticipate one that the undecided voters- people said the Jew legitimately undecided. At this point a week before the election, from what I They broke hard in favour of Trump on election day when they made their decision. They voted for tromp that hadn't been predicted. That was another big one and then the other things too, is that the Poles were just doing what

holes do, which is sometimes there right. Sometimes the wrong. I was gonna pull, but poles had gotten so good in the two thousand arts that people came to to be overcome, today in their ability to predict and pick winners in the two thousand. Sixteen brace reminded us like pulling stop perfect footprint saw pretending, it is yeah it's a lot of as they do with like we ve, been harping on the way the media presents, it and then a lot of it has to do with just are conditioned our condition to look at things underdogs areas, for in politics in the I remember when he's aggregator, especially at five thirty eight? They had these predicted models and they started talking about the fact that, and I think the washing most even wrote a good comparison to sports and you know if someone a hazard is a real big underdog going into like a super bowl or or world Series

and they end up winning people don't get free and go after the people who said they had fifteen or twenty percent chance of winning. They and while what a story, the underdog one right, but there are so you presidential elections You know one every four years that it's it's the same thing but people just look at it. Only like an underdog like from was an underdog that supposedly have like a fifteen to thirty per Chance of winning some people said one day out of that, give us by thirty percent chance of winning is a real shot at winning for sure the waves framed. It doesn't seem that way in politics now, and so that's one thing, but another thing is We shouldn't even be talking about presidential elections with, like fifteen percent chance of winning ninety nine percent chance of winning like that is not how we should presented wheat in that's, not how we used to presented were used to present it saying like this,

I found that the Clinton was going to lead trump. Fifty two percent of forty eight percent, or something like that. Yet hussar minus two points and then have shown you like, okay. Well, this is really close race way closer than I think, and that's that there's more information, not what the problem is that you can take that same statistic. Fifty six, fifty two percent chance of winning, plus or minus of four point margin of error. If you converted to normal distribution, you come up with an eighty four percent probability of a win. That's the problem is that these statistics that are being being the data that's being produced by these poles are being converted in ways that they shouldn't be, and then that's what the media jumps on. That's what the public collapse up, because that is the horse races statistic in eighty four percent: chance of winning a fifteen percent chance of winning that's what we

we think about that's what we look at and so, rather than realizing that actually is a close race. Fifty two percent plus or minus four points. We eighty four percent is winning and that's a foregone conclusion that that person's going to win, yes, that ultimately is where the media and the public are culpable for this year, think about the government to be extra we would like that to be only they weren't in that you know. Poles are valuable, but, like I don't look any poles in partially, because of- Twenty sixteen went down and in fact, for the past week I've taken a complete internet news and social media break. And it's been pretty great, actually is so liberating yeah. I literally haven't looked at a single new thing. Sadly found out that Chadwick Bozeman passed away like three days afterward. Oh, I like that

how dark I've gone and not looking at the internet unless it's something that brings me joy, which is to say you know, old, Zepplin invent Helen Youtube. Videos out is looking up classic mad magazine covers other aid, oh yeah, that's all I've been doing is if it does it bring me joy on the internet, I'm not doing it. That's good, and you know I gotta bring soon cause, I do think you should be active and involvement and in the no but yeah, but taking a break fairly regularly, is definitely mentally healthy. But that aside, I hadn't I'm not looking at any poles and I don't care what any Paul says will cease I was I was thinking, is very similar stuff too and like what? What's the point of Paul out now ok well, I finally found if you look that up on Google there's there's this very little on it, but I found somebody who who explained it pretty well. I thought that poles, our methods

you who is going to when they're, not they're, not forecasting models like I said before, they are meant to be like a snapshot of how who have your polling feels at the moment right and in doing that, because You are sampling american people and these are independent, news organisations typically who are carrying out these these Paul's, you to tell everybody else how America's feeling, rather than leaders saying I'll, decide how you're feeling I can decide what you want and what you need and in what you think is important poles prevent that from happening by telling the rest people hey this is everybody else's feeling right now to and in some ways it is kind of sheep polish, where the ideas like, oh you know what that's supposed to say, my opinion that everybody is going to vote for this person and not for that person that shit,

no berringer impact on your vote and it feels like that. That's how pulsar you sometimes, but if you stepped back and look and see that their actually kind of an important part of of sharing what other people are thinking rather than being told what we're thinking or medium what? What to think they actually are pretty legitimate in that sense, yeah. Well, you know I say, take your balls and sit on it. One more thing we get. We cannot talk about pulling in not talk about internet, pulling real, quick it. This is a completely different I'll appalling men's ever been done before, rather than a random sample. You actually to say, hey you wanna, take the serbian people click it. So it's called opting in opt in surveying and very specific kinds of people. Take service on purpose on the internet, so they really yours,

and because their new there really now figuring out how to await these things are not and how to how to use them, because they can produce legitimate data, but it depends on whose conduct in the Oh, how if they know what they're doing that kind of stuff, but just like everything else, the moving things online is democratize polling, and so anybody can condemn Nepal now and basically enter the new cycle. How kid rock almost became a cent miss again for a second there, but so. On the one hand, it's good bits also were in a big period of disruption. As far as pulling his concerns over you, the polling consumer either go like chalk into stop listening to poles altogether or look for things like transparency. We recognise the company or the name that produce the pole. There are they sharing their data like what how the questions exactly were worded, what their population size.

How they waited all this stuff. If the, if there's all, if all that stuff is included, you can probably trust the poor and then beyond that. Just remember what you're looking at that this isn't a predictor of who's, gonna win! It was was snapshot for a bear very brief moment of a very specific sample of America to just to show how people would vote right. Then, was right. Then too. This is not election day. We're talking about yeah! You know I want to be clear, not preparing poles disturb their. There are valid and useful, but I just don't care to look at them right now. I understand that's my Well, you got anything else about poles, nothing else about pals. Do you to know about poles? looking around you go check out pew stuff in the sidelines stuff in all that stuff and step three times here comes Rumpelstiltskin,

or candy man, so this is from Keeley price increases. This hi guys writing today, not only to that's my unending love. Her stuff, you should know that so to share linked to some black owned bookstores. It would be, so cool. If all of your listeners purchased your book, she should to say period I come from a black own bookstore, couldn't agree more by the way. A couple of Asters ETA. Listen to. While I wait for stuff, you should now have books, how to end coming out soon and they encourage their listeners to support black owned businesses to the purchase of their book. It's a win win. I don't know why it's taking me so long to think to write. You guys. I blame it on corona madness. But but not least, I ll, say a love, the end of the world with Josh Clark and moving Russian as well. Any chance to hear you guys talk is a chance we're taking No, we get a cupboard vaccine and you guys can do your life shows again. Please come to Nashville, oh yeah, for sure I think we planned on national. It in

National God scuttled by covered in Samara owing to come now we might not ever be able can now knows go to Atlanta to lose my mind. If I get to see you here are the best Keeley price, and so, clearly sent a link to a anyway site that lists black on bookstores near you, I made a little old Europe, Norton or to make it easier on everyone else have so you go to bed TAT Lee Slash s why s k B, o em and find black on bookstores near you to purchase if you should know an incomplete compendium of mostly interesting things, at the very least we like to encourage people to go to India Bound DOT, Org import any bookstores. I don't if there is an actual black owned? Indy book store website but I would imagine most of the black on bookstores. Are India bookstores? yeah, probably so check it out bid deadly flash as well Gay B, o em go out

by our book. Everybody you're gonna, love it. It's really great and thanks thanks for that chuck her face for certain suffer the two key, much appreciated we'll see Nashville! I just Keeley will be the one like you said, losing your mind in the crowd. I you on a lose your mind on us via email. We love that kind of thing kinder. You can send it off to stuff part TAT s it. I heard radio dotcom step. He should know its production I heard radios how stuff works from what had cast my radio. I hurt radio Apple podcast cast over every listen to your favorite shut.