When it comes to otto home and life insurance- you want a company. that's on your side like a mika, they take the I'm to understand what you me and tailor a policy to meet your needs. When you need a meagre, their representatives put you first and let you know what you can expect from them. They'll tell you exactly what you need to do and walk you through it. Choosing a meagre, you know well have have someone in your corner when you need it most, a Mika empathy is our best people. See anti cohen here, letting you in on the best kept secret of cocktails fresco. Next classic for good taste, real spear zero sugar and only a hundred calories find the new vodka spreads variety pack or the dealer below many. Are you at fresco mixed outcome slashed by

enjoy responsibly? Fresca is a trademark of the coca cola, company, brisket trademark mix, five cent, alcohol per volume, bucket spritz bike with natural flavors and artificial sweeteners de la Paloma tickled with natural flavor all products for twelve fluid ounce average analysis, one hundred calories, zero grams protein, zero grams fat carbs range from one point: three to one point: six grams: is star talk with awe This latest chatter about chat, jpg, somehow replacing all future writers of the universe and just a in general occupying people's minds. We just We would release a show. We did not that long ago, during large madness and its call? rise of the machine where is it they are. We who predicted the winners will be in the future reports. Colorado

welcome to start calling your place in the universe where science and pop culture collide the startalk begin right now, the I got chuck with me jerked a nail all right and the person who gives authenticity to the entire concept of sports edition Gary o'reilly Gary Aina. Alright, an old footballer from the uk was browsing. The internet and I found a wiki page on you right. Do you were on the soccer field and new lookin looking, but and he's got a great legs. Second Larry. Last saturday, let's baby sexually legs, interesting jerry, you dig him up on the internet, so we we don't have particular expertise and march madness. We don't want Thinking about it, so we have to go to a man about town who thinks about this kind of stuff and that's

against bird mad welcome backed used. Our talk. Thank you threaten me back, Yes, oh man is like was a wonder kin. It was his phd in math at age, twenty four from oxford. Reality me guy you're such a laptop? I took a year off a counter. research mathematical visit my wife's mathematical physics through scientist, an entrepreneur and author. You got a book out there, a fictional book, this factor, man, I like fiction. That is deeply informed. By math and physics in the universe and that's one such book Where are you introduced, gods algorithm the secret formula that will solve all the problems of the world in whose than in the fight to take command of it and love maybe we'll talk about it later. Love were that's going. So one of your companies, one. skewed excuse me

What's it called? What do they call it? A humble brag, humble humble brag. When you hear someone say well, one of my companies are not all the company right, one of them. Just I get I get bored, so I started company as I do, I gotta go, do something else and I started out of me: that's why have this? rail companies massacre since so the in another, humble brag, yeah just shut up there. It just just stopped like you know what some people when they get bored they turn on the tv. When I get bored, I start a company. Get rid of potato chips You provide statistical support for professional sports teams. In fact, we delved into their top Last time you were a guest, invite people to dig up that episode,

and what I learned that episode as you were a computer program that can enter crossword, puzzle competitions and is called get this. Doktor Phil nice, if I doubt very, very clever, so anyhow manage let's get let's get straight to march madness, their brackets teams when they lose its winner go home. Is that right? It's not that it's like single elimination last I checked, and is there any way to predict the whole thing that you know that you can did that you can share with us it's. Your show how how do you? How do you use it, and what do you do do it? As do we all need it html to make that happen. Can we Warren Buffett money that's really get war, its obvious running right down to the basic question, so my standing as it in order to get Warren Buffett money, you have to prove it

every single game in march madness and so actually looked at, I knew we were talk about this time. Looked at this last night and I think people look at this. As you know, What are my chances of winning and the answer is their basic point? Zero and I the other way around- and I said let's say what did you want to win out? We the chance of getting every single game, prevent recollect of your. If you're even money on any particular game, then you have you have one chance one, and to sixty four? Will you actually get them all right and to sixty There is some giant numbers. You are no chance What computers are helping us make better connections, so I thought ok. What if I wanted to have a one in a thousand shop which it still not terribly good but it means that if I get the tri twenty times Then I have a one in fifty chance of actually getting it sometime in the next twenty years, which is sort of as far out as I come up.

And it turns out it in order to have a one in a thousand. A winning warren Buffett money. You have to be able to predict with ninety percent terrific who's gonna win any particular gay. In some of the games. It's pretty easy right when a one seed plays the sixteen seed, and he bet on the ones it's probably about ninety percent. That's good The problem is when the seven seed plays the hc yeah. That game is really a toss up and getting to the point that you can predict that game with ninety percent accuracy is really hard. There are computer mess That will help those computer method. One of the nice things about them is del, actually tell you how how sure they are so you can putting all information about two teams and say they're playing. Where were we did you get to put in how other players feeling too

It is not about actor that you're, not considering here it is, and you can put in. Obviously I I mean you could call, and ass. I dont know if that would actually help it would help them. Give up your computer. You kind everything just what am I doing today? they took the call you have your coffee. Did you get your sleep and we, I think it A lot of the information that you need is actually buried there. So far, people one of the things that you putting whatever you want. You can put for example, how many minutes of plain time did this guy have over the last three weeks, very of that sort of a proxy for how tired is he yeah and put in how many minutes the ever last three weeks of the last three days when was the last injured? How has been playing recently

all of this information is popular and you can at least in theory, pusher all into a machine learning system and out will come. I this team is gonna win. If the probability is whatever wow, how he they typically for a problem like this? They typically use something called gradient, boosting and that doesn't really help you much what they do you mean is hear. You say that I read in boosting doesn't help us much, already impose, did not help matters which are of great, which are you two dozen else, reimbursing very slick and but we need we need you to define it right or gas await you. Do you think the rainy pacing part doesn't matter what it does is it says, ok gimme tons and tons of data about marge madness, historically going back as far as you have just pockets of data,

and then it says. Ok, I have on four hundred thousand gains. take a thousand of those games out and not look at them you set him off to his side and then it tries to figure out what tendencies. There were in the three hundred and ninety nine thousand games it has left and then it is ok this I think, he's going on and then you go and you get a thousand Can you bring it back in and you check and you see how well did. I predict right now Where did get Warren Buffett money for them the objective of this whole programme is not going the second in order to get one of its money, you need to predict these seven versus eight games with ninety percent accuracy in order They vegas his money. You probably need to reckon with sixty percent accuracy. So if you're that good at predicting Gonna win these games. You she's gotta base you shouldn't.

You should not try we mourn above its money. It's a much it's a much further reach and its that much needs a million dollar. Try right. Yeah you a year for the rest of your life? If you can predict you can get that money from vegas and it's easier run. If you predict sixty percent of the time just got back every year and you get the money you get the vaguest money every year, but If we use that model you ve just described it talks to me about history now from apply as point of view that right. It means nothing to me because we are not playing teams, those players are no longer planned way. Different players for, in my mind, that's his. has no relevance to what is about to happen. If you look back historically, you will see that his that five years ago, the james scored way more points than average. and yes, that's history, but its work bears on today, and he was just about five and you,

Can you can also look- and you can gather information about how I naturally sucks right? How old is he? How do people age? How do people? Why the broad age and you can just there. So much data now know what makes it hard to reason. People, don't you go beat up on vegas with this stuff is because there's so much data in something that happens. With machine learning. When you have too much data programmes start what's called overfishing. which means they look at me. A well whether or not the lakers one last year was correlated with the phase of the moon outdo. That is history and that's just fuck, but if you have so much data some of it's going to look relevant when it really isn't and the reason machine learning is hard is because you have to somehow sculptor that out. You have to somehow say which of this. actually matters

The reasons people have this thousand games. Often aside, is because then they say why the lakers and face the moon and look at the thousand games, and it's like that. Didn't work and then they go and they try again you're using their data itself as part of the predictive model kind of like what they do, a climate, put in the history of climate to show whether or not the predictive models that are you right now are effective, yeah right right, better, but so just want to emphasise something that you said man and you said it brilliant and beautifully. I don't want to go by without adding further punctuation there's a point beyond which you have so much data that you can find car relations that have nothing it would cause and effect, And- and You need a new ways to check against that,

to remove. Those correlations from the analysis let a fair waited to to summarize some of which it is and, and the effect is very real, you can you can go you? Can you can look for weird correlations at it? You know it's things like the number of loaves of bread eaten in each year in denmark is incredibly well correlated with whether the u s stock market goes up or down something. You know there you're just craziness and an ass. That said, it really is a matter of you have built their words for it. So you have. One set of data is called the training and that daddy: you used to build your model, other set of data, which is called the validation asian date, which is the day, if you use to your model and see if it actually turned out to work? It's what you can't do seems like you want to do is. Will you try your data, and you look at the validation that data and it doesn't because you were looking at the number of loaves of bread, eaten them, so a new model that doesnt consider denmark

and you try that on your validation data and it doesnt work, and then you do it again and again and again until you find something that works on your validation data will, you cheated now, your validation data is sort of dirty because you ve been using it over and over and over again, and your basic models think there with just the training data by your working with the validation did say your style. We need clean data and clean data is incredibly valuable because happens, you're. These four hundred thousand games feels like a lot, and then you take kinda an aside and say I'm gonna hold them for about asia, any notice through. Maybe that's not enough, I need it. I need another validation said they take ten thousand more side, and then you taken thousand more aside and and once touch dated thirty forever. So how you split data between validation training. Data turns out to be important and hard and It really matters that do not look

at your validation data very often how many relevant data points. Would you IX someone to want to use for a decent outcome, so it depends on what you're trying to do some things you need huge datasets. So if you're trying to predict, Ninety percent accuracy, seven ursus, eight, you need at least as much. hey: don't you need everything if you're trying to if a number one seat is gonna, be the sixteen see you probably know by a much less so different problems require different. of data, the one rule of thumb there by the way somebody Somebody were some committee seated the one teams as number one and the numbers? Sixteen is number sixteen. So, very data! Don't do that, yes, and that so you're, not you not approaching those two teams from a pure. You

already biased by the set up for that- and I remember as a kid- and I would ask that in that I was kind of very little and they would say oh Oklahoma, upset Texas today by beating them in a basketball game. I say, of course they have. Because they lost I'm sorry I didn't want to upset- was not didn't. I didn't understand. That is because you want beyond the expectations of some group of people who decide that you should have lost so does that add another sort of variable of unpredictability to what your disorder I mean. The bottom line is that the the seeding committee of the Dnc to a bracket is looking at very limited now today than simply looking at who be whom, perhaps by how much you may look at their, you know how well do those things do and the wreckage of europe in, but of that it's a tiny amount of data relative to everything you actually could you like. I want people,

arrested. He was injured where they playing a by an honour and pray I would assume, because if they were because if they were accurate, no one would ever be upset in a torrent the only person who would be I sat would be Warren Buffett because he wouldn t Probably the dairy would use if you're trying to do the seriously is vast asked super set of the data that the march man, guys the institute's guys actually is there something? that I think it's important to realize here, and this has to do with how people saw promise now machine saw problem, so I often draw distinct. in between what I like to call a ninety nine percent problem and forty nine percent, so in a forty nine percent problem. You're too,

to distinguish between a forty nine percent probability and a fifty one percent probability so the stock market, if you can only investing? talks that are fifty one percent to go up. You will make a killing the stock markets. Fifty fifty unjust that little edge you'll do phenomenally name It means you have to just get it right. So this motion What of standard example of a ninety nine percent problem is stop lights. If you identify ninety nine percent of stoplight correctly and just drive, the rest of you don't realize their you're gonna die you're gonna, have an exit. You're gonna die so machine learning. The kinds of things I was talking about turns out to be good on the forty nine fifty one problems: And really bad on the ninety nine hundred props back. The ball is interested right because sword in between stock workers. On one side, as people for not to be pretty good,

the ninety nine hundred problems were not so good at the forty nine fifty one problem so that the area the answers will not get that money is driven single minded. This answer is you're, probably not you might go, go for are you about you might as well in advance one is one word: if money on that would be sat right, exactly right, exactly guides go ahead, have read your it's five, twenty nine on it, yeah guys, we've got to take a quick break, but when we come back, this is really a a patriot on cosmic queries for march madness, and I want to get a few of those questions in related to that, but also, maybe we can think about so. The sports on other worlds

and what that plainly like when. No streaming exclusively on paramount plus we are the great wonders and great danger. We come together. The new season of star trek, strange new worlds. The next great age of exploration starts with us. The large shields up ready for some bands. You know I've got this star trek strange new worlds now streaming on paramount, plus, live long and prosper, echo cohen here, letting you in on the best, kept secretive cocktails fresco next classic good taste real spear.

Zero sugar and only a hundred calories, find the new vodka spreads variety pack or the dealer below many. Are you at fresco mixed outcome slashed by enjoy responsibly. Fresca is a trademark of the coca cola, company, brisket trademark mix, five per cent alcohol per volume, bucket spritz bike with natural flavors and artificial sweeteners de la Paloma tickled with natural flavor all products for twelve fluid ounce average analysis. One hundred calories, zero grams protein, zero grams fat carbs range from one point. Three to one point: six grams. rebecca startle ports, addition march madness. That's what we're talking and I got chuck and Gary here guys yeah yeah. We can't do this alone. We needed someone who could bring, analytics into the house and We ve got our favorite analytic guy mac, Ginsburg Matt. I was good to have you here. Star talk. It is with this man Phd just spilling out

every he's gotta. Do it so well again, so I'd. Let me just ass much of the real quick was what, with with all of europe, dress. I want to turn our exports of world and see where they can with it goes to old law is, questions that picture members have work, but so are craig. You have mathematically. Do you ever? you ever game the system you know with with within if you're programming any of your machine learning any of your mathematical prowess, do you ever put that to work? And just say you know what I'm gonna, I'm gonna go ahead and make a low loan which are having after so do. I can answer for you here either he's a miser or the that question is no, because law get the room his in that there's no butler, there's no stare. Is going up to three level mansion the dude, just in a regular room.

We also know of mary, so that the answer is the bottles in court yeah? It's not itself I had a friend, you went and play blackjack in vegas in china cards as very mathematical. At the end of it all. He said he figured out tat. He had made fifteen cents an end, its central grind and I I like I'll tell you that the bell rang money that such grind of meddling in our hands me in terms of the ethical bellies is My daughter uses me as a calculator, so walking around the house. They shall dad what seventeen times thirty six and Occasionally we have house guests. Look at her and they say sky. Did you just use your father's? Ejaculate aren't cheesacre, that's what he's for so that's great well, how does your daughter will now she's twenty two? Ok?

I going to say because at this point she's using you as a cash machine yeah there can. I have seventeen times thirty six dollars, yeah, that's cool, alright! Well, that's a good answer. Alright! So give me that chuck who's First, a pitcher in question. A girl. You wanna, gonna jump in so these patron patrons are exclusive patron, patrons nancy ds. she says: here's a shot march, madness question: how can I take into account things like motivation? thousand play performance under pressure or other factors challenging to court the fine in determining the outcome, the examples you sciences, virginias national championship, one in twenty twenty given You're, embarrassing lawson, twenty nineteen. So what do we think is this sort of enrolled in your in your data points that we totally disagree? I can you quantify motivation. Probably I mean in theory, concern sort of any.

Motivation probably shows up me. Let me look at this exact example, and not in the data is gonna Well, how well the team you got to finally do if they live and finally, the previous year a reasonable sampling and that's. Why That can you know, and then these machine learning algorithm suggests is dry and they just turn turn it up and try and look for patterns, and, if that's a pattern, find it? I've looked for patterns like that, and I never found him college athlete scene I sort of always be about as motivated as they can be They love the game there trying to get into the pros there really working, but if there is a pattern

it should be somewhere buried in the data and you should be able to pull it out. That's pretty cool actually, and so what hap? What happens when you have a team of four starting freshman, because there won't be any data on them? So there's there's data on riding things there is their state on for starting freshman long way. Where would you have a whole season behind them? What are you haven't illegal? As about to say you have the whole season behind, and by this I mean it's hard balance right. You have data on how does a freshman performance in march madness compared with fruit that preference, performance over the course of the season do freshmen job right. That's exactly that's exactly appointed needs recognised whether or not the does the uk in crises. The player and one of the things it That's cool about he's machine. Learning algorithms like radium boosting is you don't have to figure out what you look?

for in the data you just poor. All the data in The algorithms figure out of this is a patter. Oh, that's a pattern and they do the mental heavy lifting for you found are stupid, so they might find some pattern said, are really there and that's an issue, but that But this validation dated four, so you in theory they are these very general purpose? Algorithms, tat are capable. finding the signal and the noise got. So so it's not as though you are quantifying the thing itself is looking at this testicles. In the larger data set of the matter, station events have that motivation right so so, in other words, you can't go up Maybe you can go up to the one person see there really jack. They gave a really good pep speech pep talk. The coach gave a talk

now they're, just gonna win. You can't put that in after the fact right. You don't know that you're not adjusting these these frank, the statistics in real time. You have to go in Tibet already placed. I have to decide what data I wanna put in and train the thing and then what comes out, is sort of how I'm gonna make my bet. And I'm not gonna motivational coaches and have have their influence as well, but that will be right because you'll see. Oh, this coach players blame for this couch do a little bit when the same players went and played for different cut. Loose coach must be good. I dont know if its motivation writer I can imagine a world where forest strange reason eighteenth birthday, you can't play sports, you just you become Uncoordinated under eighteen per day exactly and then it gets better in the data

that might look like freshmen, occasionally have a bad day because they turned eighteen on there somewhere and I wouldn't know if freshmen tend to choke, because the pressure them and they behave a little bit less evenly or freshmen or there's this miraculous eighteenth birthday thing after birthdays were in there Well then, I would say: oh look, it always happens to people on the day. Turned eighteen and then Have you got your eyes, but that night worthwhile ass might be the reason being that that's everything else is lurking in the data It's very difficult to imagine a phenomenon that that both matters and is not somehow president in the data. For you tease out before me knew how to do so, The lesson that seriously. Let's not is the lesson,

Let's fly this thing out of this atmosphere: showy addy, Chris, hey all experts who says I've been watching the expense It made me think how we could we conduct applicable tournament was people who often various planets and asteroids that have been settled by humans. Like, for example, I'm kinda mars versus champions of due process moves up up up right now this for me is interesting because you can a whole new set of metrics to factor into your machine learning it. What are some of the things that we would need to think about to keep the feel equal and fair for all teams loved the show and everything keeping forming fellow. So you Well, let me just as a way of lead into that sought so mad when p, we'll started training for the olympics at high altitude. No it's not another planet, it's this planet, but it's a different environmental conditions under which your body is getting try. and now they all

went to the same stadium and some people are performed the others. it's just an interesting realisation there that a b, virus, in which you train the gravity, the air quality. And city the that can definitely show up. In performance. I think that's right and I don't think we don't historically I mean I have no idea what's going to happen when we have people from mars, but historically we don't try to compensate for that. So you know kenyans, win marathons, it's just how it is and there is, but there is not any thing in the rule sing that any canyon entering america has had ankle whites there is as big as a handicap raise any help. nothing in the nba to try make it easier for short people play was it does so

it's just a little family related right, and we don't do that. So I think that if, if Marshall in our people from mars have some physical difference that makes them or a game Hopefully we will just celebrate with them. Probably exacted live on, hours, so will celebrate with them that their better? who found waiting, love watching, because the people who are oh good, are so good No. If anybody we're bemoaning the fact that I'm I'm not gonna ever be a professional wrestlers, just not going to happen there tonight. I'm there's still time. Shall you be a vicious? That's not after an amended I mean I mean if we bring it back to this planet just temporarily. If I, to cross the west coast of the east coast and if I'm altitude and weak implant sea level. This, recovery, then there's oxygenation and ability to produce these

are these not factors that are relevant? Of course, the relevant like home, killed advantages. Relevant, playing mail as there's. No friends spread over playing at the fenway is different. and playing it wrigley field, the green monster matters and boston players, Boston, selects their players in part because they're looking for people? Who have the natural skills that will exploit Juliet is in part, as did yankees, as so many europeans everywhere, the right field. Why, was one of the shortest of all ball fields like two hundred ninety six feet or something was very short and so, Thank you. A lot of lefty sluggishness read that wrapped in the home runs simply because that short porch out I'm right, field, and in fact, if you you're right now We don't go back to the record books and say you know.

if your home runs were three hundred and ten the feet and they would not have been a home run in any other stadium. Would you happen to play for the yankees, so we're going to subtract those? We don't do that we! allow the circumstances to be the expression of that of that ability. That's an interesting take on this. I do not the tug of war used to be in the olympics as at as an as an event and the rule was everyone in the tug of war, had to be the same profession, sad to be a group that made sense that they competed together. they all have to be like medical doctors that they all had to be? You know soccer players they all had to be policemen or and so it turned out that the mounted police, always one because they had to wear your native uniform or had these steel reinforce boots

and then I realized is a stupid of animals and get rid of it. There also all used to pulling on they range of an obstinate horse like let's go up there without having the closest I've. Seen this my wife was hydroplanes nation. And which was a work, a high. plain. My eyes were playing razor, she was actual champion. That's all wrap yes, votes that fly across the water, all its actually it's one of the key, What sports ever be right away, so her class had a weight limit and choose like the only one she weighed way less than everybody else and they actually made her put a plate of lead? in the bottom about right- that she could meet the weight limit and she hated it, because everybody else in that you're you're there and you're driving and you believe. And you move your whole weight and she could not move the lead play. It was just stuck

the bottom of the boat and she could leave, but she was leaning with much less mass. Then why do you think eating it load, pockets and arrest order so that she couldn't leave with the weight and match People's capacity deciding the lead weight was better than me. She was right interesting and she she's eat them all anyway, so she was fine but While we feel that this is that competitive, let us use this life, I could, if I could, troy do instead of just breathe you Wow man anymore, I'm also speak of home field, advantage in an interplanetary contest, so it would matter if you played your support. on your planet right I mean I would presumably s that would be that the ultimate palm field evanna cause? You know your gravity and your air quality and you're you're all the peculiarities of urine.

Neither would I have to travel from planet aids. A planet be added, X, amount of light years. I have to get them and a climate is therefore its recovery. I'd have to turn up, however, is in fact, still live. I put on my journey. I not you know it'll, be it'll, be like the the the the the what you call it in tennis, where there's the four events, but not all innocent grand slam. Zeal grandson and so they so Wimbledon, is on grass and whose it on clay is, it said, wrote venom, random areas in the french overseas clay, and then you have that concrete. You know it for ourselves. Oh that's interesting! So if you, if you do whole circuit, then you need, Combination of abilities, sir, is what makes winning the full grants lamb so that so much more impressive, then anyone whose only has the town for just one so high school-

Alright, let's get let's get another one about patriots patrons and go ahead. He his delightful name of craig wool house and he's, new zealand ways proudly flagging out the fact that I stopped covered. Congratulations. If a game of basket will help when you're a tiny I'll. Let you know anybody in a category don't tell them about and they won't listen. Very. There are very proud and nation they greater rugby, gave plus I Don'T- I don't want anybody so up here during the high spends. A hundred percent reserve rightly says: if a game of basketball is held on mars in doors with us atmospheric pressure, would finally be able to dunk it from the three point line and count as a straight, Do we need another annie. So I like that, and we will get to that answer when we come back. Our talks

to do so. Any go in here, letting you in on the best, kept secret of cocktails fresco next mixed classic sk, I taste real spear. It's zero sugar and only a hundred calories find the new vodka spreads variety pack or the tequila below many. Are you at fresco mixed outcome slashed by enjoy responsibly. Fresca is a trademark of the coca cola, company, brisket trademark mix, five cent, alcohol per volume, bucket spritz bike with natural flavors and artificial sweeteners de la Paloma tickled with natural flavor all products for twelve fluid ounce average analysis. One hundred calories, zero grams protein, zero grams fat carbs range from one point: three to one point: six grams.

I can keep this in anymore. I can't even believe I'm saying this. To be honest, even though you can tell me anything, I capital v F for to capital, z, lowercase m, underscore lowercase, p capital, l reverse flash apostrophe, lowercase arrest. I know how you feel just between us. I am underscore comma dash underscore dollars on capital g lowercase, w come forward. Slash dash, dash, reverse slash, no way. I am so glad we had this conversation. I know me to turn on total privacy with end to end encryption, whatsapp message privately. The we're back start talks, sports cosmic queries weeks, out with march madness, and when I think about sports on other planets, what role a I could play in predicting winter

and we got mad ginsburg with us becoming a friend of star talk, says not refers. Rodya with us, thanks for coming back mack so we're picking up on a question. I love this question because we state that, of course, is from credible house he's one of about patriarch patients. exclusive member. If a game of possible was held on mars in doors with us atmospheric pressure, would we I finally be able to dunk it from the three point line and what it counts. As a three or did we need another planet, and then he cites the one the m j at Michael Jordan came from. So hmm. I ask please someone if you could, if you have anything to add to what I say, I'd be delighted for you to to to to jump in, but on mars, there's about forty percent of earth's gravity There are so few way. You know a hundred pounds on earth. Forty pounds on mars and all your musculature is.

accommodating the one hundred pounds that you weigh so now you only have to sort of move forty pounds that sort of up against gravity, so you can jump higher and you fall more slowly at all dusty hang time yet is there ok, so we can jump higher annually. Good, hang time and if you get a good running start, I think I run all the equations on this, but I'm thinkin you could dunk from the three point line and counted as a three pointer because you would not have touched the ground and the ball wouldn't have hit the ground in between the three, in short line. And the main basket meant what you think of that. I think right. Firstly, from a rules prospective that's the easy part of question: Don't you take off from behind the three point lying it's a three point I haven't done. deletion either. I suspect that a second story

Second, and a meter is actually what's reduced by forty percent, see you probably can jump like two and a half times as far in guinea that Michael Jordan can dunk from behind treatment. Three point: way no night. We can draw from the airline weekly foulon, not to three point. One! Didn't anybody. ask him to try ah soldiers, just something to be clear about what he's actually doing, which is not on Yes, unless you analyze it generally. If you're trying to dunk the point You're dumping is the highest part of your work, because the grim is ten feet up. Where's, Michael Jordan, from the free thoughts throw my he's. Not still ascending at the point, he's donkey He has already peaked in his parabolic art and he's on his way down. So he had to jump that high in order to make all that happens if you watch his arc

he's on his way down, so it doesn't have to be sorta the limit of we jumping provider. You got a high enough. You can just descend into Don't I'm want to sound like this markets in this conversation, so I didn't do the calculations either. However, I know if we're doing this with this sort of ability and making the coal bigger the room taller, the room on raising the bar on rum stretching the cold and yet because he finally behind time is seconds. Plural then this is a different gain if we play it from its budget. People to be flying out the arena. the matter game yeah I don't know why, but if I am that the new neutralizing, all the interesting features of the martian basketball court right, but and again it's it's more like a basketball, because

We kind of made it equivalent in the size of the core, as opposed to an escort. I think it's it's way more complicated than that right. Are you going to make the hoop bigger if you're shooting from so much further away. You have to make the hoop bigger, but then inside game Come is tremendously different, so I think attack. I don't think you can. You can't rebalance it. It's gonna be a different game. So here? However, my point we're just to be clear that, just again to add emphasis to match point You shoot the ball at the basket and there's a certain margin of error in angle outside of which you're not going to make the basket right and that true in any gravity right so so that you not helped and a lower gravity by sort of margin of error angles. So if you're gonna shoot from twice as far away, then you gonna make half as many baskets, because that

but if the angles will no longer accommodate the distance over which the ball is veering off course, unless you stuff curry, but as well. And I wanted to slit against their quarry on mars is a new movie on, as it would get anything I just wanna litigate one quick point for you guys have to figure out. Ok, if shooting from behind. The three point line is what entitles you to the extra point. Why, with docking the ball from behind a three point line, still that same extra point as well the shot actually happens at the room. ok, nano surrounded. If a guy's eyeing the three point, like leaning forward right of his hand, are inside the tree point arc that fine still gets a fair points is not only that you can jump from behind a three point line land inside the three point line and it counts as a three point out: ok

So I your feet, but it's all about the feet and has nothing do what the actual shot. It's yours interviews later, the feeling of the wreck, our right technically it works. It reminds me of the movie what which was it open movie, but it was entertaining. Were they entered the alley oop in the movie and in the alley up. It's like that legal you're, the first alyosha you gotta, look at and say did thing happen illegal there? I can't it should be illegal, but apparently it's not and we kept it right. He goes Who are not a question another one about patriot and patrons James senior he says a question about I: when do you think we will actually have I am a sense of an actual artificial consciousness or, So how would this be achieved? Would it come from an algorithm or from actually uploading the human consciousness into a computer or by a love god? That means so? We've dropped the ball, time out,

time, but if you want to call it a man now think about I've met over you know some listen assumptions underline that question that I don't know if you're right, so I think getting uploading into a computer If that happened to me before I I before my I guess, my warranty is up. That would be fine with me, but I do think that counts as an eye. That's just not inside a computer somewhere. So the of what it is to be. Intelligent actually becomes important and interesting historically, phoenician of intelligence was able to pass the turing test which something invented by british fragmented. Alan turing, and it basically says I am on one end. You typing into a computer, An entity is typing back and if you can't tell us that I could use a machine or a person. The machines intelligent.

go back to what I said earlier about the forty nine percent. Persistent. Ninety nine percent problems the me ain't that look for him. quote: intelligent unquote are going to be the ones that solves the forty nine percent problems. They're gonna do things we can't do they're going to solve problems we can't saw, but they're, not look like us they're not going to pass the turing test, they're gonna having and deals with traffic light, but it's scary there and by they're gonna be great at trading stocks. They're going be great. Predicting who's. Gonna, wind sporting events, they're going be great at predicting the web if gonna do all sorts of things and help us and they going something that we, I think, will come to think of his intelligence, that there's not going to be a man we're all of a sudden. They go from not intelligent, intelligent were already seeing them

As you know, you're lying or I think, you're also implying that we should not hold consciousness, as the metric of whether things and tell us or useful or can get. I think it. The job done that's right cause, I don't know what consciousness is aiming for a machine to say, hey weeny alone, I haven't had my coffee, that's not against them, and it happened. Why would we build machines like that? I would do we build machines that grumpy machines are good coffee. Well, sir, the fantasy always is that, the machine will come to this state of being on its own. Through some ever lose remarried ass, it will achieve consciousness. It will solve it. wasn't design that way. It becomes that way, through so many experiences that it is a

to decipher for itself that it indeed is cencian unconscious. Though then a number of times that things happen in the movies is not a tremendous indicator of how frequently they will happen in real life, and I, I don't see how going did, though, just chuck set? It came from a movie, I said it was all allow me to do. That. Advance is up. There was this pipeline. I don't think it's gonna be like terminator. I think we're gonna I find that these machines are our partners. We can you things, we can solve problems, they can't they can solve problems, we can and we will come, if do more than either of us could do individually- and I think and that's now that's today and tomorrow as far as will they eventually so completely, surpass us that, we become a nest,

in some way I don't oh, maybe in some far off and but I imagine that for us I imagine that the team, the man machine team is gonna, be so much better and it will grow, we will grow together. We will work together to always do things that we can. do individually, I'm incredibly optimistic about. I ain't gonna. What you did you just say just literature that the future machines probably won't be a terminal that I don't know how encouraging that is, because any terminator at all would be bad. Yes, yes, and I I think that Could we we can get there if we worked at it, but that would require an inert and I'm stupidity by around it a large number of people and that's why it's just probably never underestimate, because exactly inhumanity humanity's never proved that they can do that

I'm just wondering man if, if machines are constantly learning that that part, they can't solve a hundred per cent problem very well they'll be a point where they can and there were we not redundant. I dont Oh, but there will be a point where they can. They really do their different, so their architectural. different right. So we have a trillion neurons, operating on no second timescales. machines, have even these massively perilous she's had thousands of processors operating on nanosecond timescales scale were deaf architectures. We should be good at solving different kinds of problems, and I in a You eventually simulate human brain and computer and make it all started the same. But then why would you is the point tat? I love it right. I love this angle on it there's so much that it I'd take. If somebody

your parents, rear your eighteenth birthday. Buy you a porch and you say I only want to use it to drive up the driveway a male. Nobody would do that. You're gonna use the poor. as a porch we're use these. These computers in the abilities we lack in the air is where we need help just learned that I've been using my poorest wrong. All these are what you got your mail fast today of the early internet gives my mailbox as fast as I can we got time for one last question. If it has a quick answer, I think we ve got to go back to the fact. A man and gods algorithm mentions bugs oak. Didn't you wanna knows you? I just I just tell me what happens it? What that's another right here! What is our own? It's about a guy who finds what's called gods, algorithm it. It's solve basically any problem and

my view is that he's anyway who finds. This is it's rates whether the government kills him where he takes over the world first and this guy realized He realized issues in this race. He doesn't actually want to take over the world in he, mostly just what's gonna disneyland with his kids and it's about is, attempted journey to make the world a better place before this technology is used to thomas everything up, So this is a trailer it's supposed to be fun a desert, but this is a. I do have confidence that such an equation exists. Such an algorithm exists. Others in this is the biggest open question in computer science is whether such an algorithm exists, and I believe it confidence is probably a little bit too. cause. I'm a pretty small minority. People occasionally measure it, and I think I think something like ten percent of the serious computers, I believe in something like

and their own access you be able to tap future knowledge of systems. That would be without precedent in the history of civilization, don't mean more powerful it makes you out of your parents basement where you are right now is says neil I can get them out of work to do to get a black laugh about around. Like I love the butler attic, or are we getting cold? their mac ginsburg great, to have you back always taught ankles addition thinking, there's more to plum in your in your expertise on these topics and will surely come back to you On the second time I own a great excellent gary, It is good to have you measure, my friend, our right, jack jack. You baby. There was All right, I'm near the tasting, your personal astrophysicist bidding. You farewell from star talk, sports addition, as always keep looking up

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I can keep this in anymore. I can't even believe I'm saying this. To be honest, even though you can tell me anything, I capital the fd for to capital, z, lowercase m, underscore lowercase, p capital. L reverse slash, apostrophe, lowercase arrest. I know how you feel just between us. I am underscore comma dash underscore dollars on capital g lowercase, w come forward. Slash dash, dash, reverse slash, no way. I am so glad we had this conversation. I know me to turn on total privacy with end to end encryption, whatsapp message privately.