Tommy takes a look at the 2024 Iowa Caucuses and their impact on the 2024 presidential race, asking the all-important question — does this even matter anymore? With Trump leading every poll, it can feel like the first-in-the-nation vote is nothing more than a battle for second place. But the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel, Iowa State University pollster Dave Peterson, and GOP insider David Kochel make the case for how Iowa could still shape the Republican primary.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
You might have a picture in your mind, but the ilo carcasses are all about state, fair butter, cows, corn dogs and politics.
cliche diner interviews. Beans spoken here that can have you being carcass spraying a little bit of fun it. I wear this boy, retail politics.
From all across. I will continue to make their way to the fair grounds as our republic in presidential candidates for five decades. The I would Cox's have been the first nominating contest in the presidential primaries and had become a key part of our political process in tradition until this year
On the democratic side, the Dnc voted to change the two thousand and twenty four primary calendar and have south carolina go first shifting the nominating power to more diverse states on the republican side. Iowa is still first but then,
May is very different. This year, Donald trump is basically running, isn't incumbent a rose garden strategy.
but from our logo and courtrooms across the east coast, but still it seems to be working from not just a front runner,
he's been leading the polls by an average of thirty points. But that's not to say the other candidates haven't had their moments and ramaswamy is helping to keep the momentum going after his performance in the first debate.
you could see that is highly. That's a ten point jumped for her sent on dissenters, is getting a major boost, as I always governor makes a rare endorsement. While the fight for second places picked up it have
been able to gain any meaningful ground on trump regular, positive
the listeners probably know that I have a soft spot for ireland at first been time their backing
doesn't for. When I was working for John Edwards this campaign and I live
in des moines for a full year in two thousand and seven when I worked on benson,
eurobonds, as I will carcass campaign he's victory? Their set,
burma on the path to winning. The nomination in the presidency invalidate that experience makes you view the whole process through rose coloured glass. Maybe a little too
rosy. I love the weird rules, the retail politics, the entitlement, an absurdity of the whole thing, but no matter what stake us? First, our nominating process,
could force candidates get out on the road to face to face questions from voters. Not just read
Paired speeches rallies or cut tv ads.
but this year it seems like retail politics and all the good part to the ilo. Caucus process are just dying, a slow death
we're trump on cruise control and the other candidates stuck in neutral.
even I've been wondering what the hell are we doing here,
I'm trying,
before, and this is on the ground, and I were special to part series
Save America.
art one the inevitability problem.
One thing done:
stand about the ilo caucuses is that the history insignificance is a little different, depending on which party or talking about for democrats
I what has been a springboard denomination or at least a serious contention- John Kerry, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton they all one here, but for republicans in the pre trump era, the caucasus attended be more of a showcase for the most socially conservative candidate in the race in those kids
It's had not gone on too great success. Just look at the most recent competitive gnp contests and two thousand eight mike,
could be gained from behind a beat John Mccain. An hour then became one new hampshire and won the nomination.
between twelve weeks informed, beat mitt romney in iowa by thirty four votes game.
The romney won new Hampshire won the nomination in two thousand, and sixteen ted cruz beat trump in iowa the night
is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and then trump one new, Hampshire and you know the rest is formed
for governor Johnson once said, I will pick scorn new Hampshire picks president's, but that does
mean iowa, republicans or any less serious about the process. I dont think they're trying to pick the next president. Necessarily, I think they're trying to give
You know a fairer bedding to everyone who shows up in to say who is worth still being in the max reinforces tools, the achieve political report for the divine register- and this is the third presidential.
I cycle, she's covered, which mean she sat through more campaign. Events in any one human being should have to endure. Certainly
are focusing for the person who they think should be president doing their best to really
Sure everybody out and said not come in with such preconceived notions that it prevents them from hearing out some of the other candidates.
When I worked in iowa retail politics still mattered, voters expected to see candidates in person to ask them questions sometimes even got personal attention. Like a call on their birthday or a shattered in a speech,
Traditionally, Canada, to putting the time hell, town hall meetings in built, grassroots organisations were rewarded. A lot of this has to do with how the caucasus actually work
they're, not like a regular primary where you might shopping your point place, cast a vote and leave.
even to send an email and valid. They require much more time from the people who participate in a you're still required to show up in
then at seven p m on a monday night in january, its january fifteen, to share, but you should,
up and you get in a room and and there's a little bit a party business, but basically, when you got said the presidential preference section of this, they pass out
sheets of paper, and you write down who you want for president and collect those up and they tally the total vote counts and they read it out and they put it into an app and they tell it across the state. The republican process is much simpler than the old democratic carcass rules, which
viability, thresholds and realign men and nath and reporting in bunches stuff. We want to get into here. The thing to take away from this is that if you are a public and voter who want to participate
You d carve out several hours on a monday evening in January. Maybe it's cold! Maybe you have to work. Maybe you need to make the kids dinner. That's the challenge for campaigns
how do you get? People show excited about your candidate that they block out a whole evening for you in
that is where all the organizing comes in and why campaigns it have.
drawn ground games tend to do better. You can just looked back to twenty thousand and sixteen
when trump was running for president in a crowded field, iowa voters chose ted cruz
because he visited all ninety nine counties in the state. I were public, its act
we like spending time with their groups. I know it's incredible. Brian says that, unlike ted crews
campaign barely tried in iowa in twenty. Sixteen, if you think back to how he dead
and of what has operation was like in twenty fifteen and sixteen. It was really kind of ragtag approach right. It was night sophisticated, it was not particularly respected and after we lost, of course, Donald trump said, the lord
It was stolen, ted crews, didn't win iowa trump tweeted. He stole it
Either a new elections should take place or crews result nullify these days. Trump is massively popular with republicans in our union
after when the caucasus, to win the nomination, but if one of his opponents could pull off and upset here, that would really shake things up, and that's why Brian says teen trump is doing things different.
This time around, I think his operation is smart. I think they're sophisticated, who think they ve learned. They brought in people who know what they're doing prompt still was simple
the traditional approach
trying to visit all ninety nine counties, you don't seem
events with just a few dozen people in a church based man, rather diner, he's really only
big rallies,
iowa in this campaign is got flag, we're not spending more time in the state, but according to a big writer story from october, the trump camping.
Has an edge that his opponents don't
an enormous trove of voter data basic
if you have an ira and you ve, had any interaction with any trumped campaign. Twenty, sixteen twenty twenty twenty twenty four their focus on getting you too cautious
crops. Opponents haven't run an hour before they don't have the same history of data to draw in trumps campaign is hope
This not only allows them to target pass voters, but also good.
and the opportunity to reach people who don't typically show up the carcass they
are actively identify,
and bringing and people who are new to the caucasus process, which, if you ve done this before, if you look at campaigns like Barack Obama, that was really key to their success right to expand the electorate and to bring in new people. You know it,
I've been going to some of his events in that call. Them commit to comcast event and some of that work and either as well have people an audience raise their hand if this is their first carcass and about a third of the people in the room, walter
it's not a small number, and that was surprising to me. I think the point you made about him bring many voters into such an important one to underwater
because that will not only obviously increase your support at the end of the day, but it makes your opponents totally blinds too. How well you're doing as compared to that me. This was a big debate in the two thousand eight:
democratic caucuses? There was a theory of the case. Among the Clinton and Edwards campaign said the caucus universe was mostly people who had caucus before it'd be like one hundred fifty thousand two hundred thousand people. In the obama side, we thought we could bring in all these new people, young folks, people of color and ultimately, that's how we won, and I think why they were kind of shocked by the results right totally. You know they're not taking it
granted and it's hard to get new people to turn out. It's hard to identify a people who haven't been engaged in this process before and convince them to show up at seven o clock on
cold Monday night. You know it's dark, you don't want to be there, it's not the most
fighting thing you ve ever done that they're doing a lie at these events and in their messaging to say,
donald trump needs to windbag, so that everyone else
right now- and we can just move along and focus on Joe background, because there is a risk when you're ahead by that much for europe or supporters to say, while he's gonna win anyway, he doesn't need me, and he is very intentionally saying I need you to show up-
I want to end by thirty points. I want to bury these guys and move along, and so that message really works with his crowds because they want to be part of tat, went with him after the break. We take a closer look at trumps.
What campaigns and learn more about the voters who are looking for an alternative
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What's interesting, if not surprising, watching the trump campaign- and I were is rallies, feel like they could be anywhere. Yes, he occasionally talks about issues that I will speak
ethically care about what I'm back in the white house, I will save bio ethanol by repealing Joe Biden
absolutely insane job killing electric vehicle mandate- and
These values are just the same old mix of posting and whining and shit talking people how we're going to
berger Joe Biden next november, we're going to make america grant again to put America that the sanctimonious really already did anybody ever see. Anybody, for, I think, is
to be one of the worst campaigns in history. He was supposed to be
Who is this that peace will be the future the party after people see and make about three?
Teachers at sea and then we're leaving the failed with sixty seven with this.
demoniac at nine
bird renders it eight susan
choose another beer issues. I will never run against you, sir. I will never run. He always comes back to one thing: don't forget to show up, in contrast
How can the commission tell me one thing that I think is just really said,
king having gone to a lot of these campaign events and first then, it's hard to convey
and a new story by donald trump is having fun. You know we talk about his showmanship
gotta, has abandoned its really intangible charisma that he has in the crowd eats up and
he's the only one who is up their legs having a great height
Doesn't it is not having,
great time up there at least. Apparently, maybe he loves it, but not in quite the same.
What is that, when I probably we want to see you now, Donald trump? Has the crowds cannot using out
the palm of his hand- and he can say these things in such a way that makes people laugh and maybe shrug off some of the more extreme aspects of that when we,
Thank you
It doesn't sound like Byd kind of a lover, but that's how you recently wrote a piece for their register with the headline in iowa trump wayne appears inevitable. Is the fight to catch him meaningful or delusional? Do you have an answer to that question at this point? You know I think, talking with people on that story, and since it published, you know it's a little bit of both that's a a huge margin to try to close by caucus day and so, if you're, looking at whether somebody can really defeat
and trump. You know people haven't ruled out. Stranger things happen in politics and in iowa is known for the results kind of closing late in the race, but it's still a lot
You hear this everywhere.
I was over trumps, got it locked up and look. There is good reason for that. He's clinch,
of influential endorsements in the polls show that support is both broad anti Dave petersen is, is political scientist and I will state university. I've been a guy in charge of the irish state pulling for the last two cycles. How firm do you think, based on your data, that that trump sort of fifty one to fifty forward
and it abode is- and I think that's pretty from you know, look what are people going to learn about donald trump that they don't already know that's going to make them not support him. I mean, I cannot think of many things
I just don't think his supporters are gonna, leave him right. They know that they like em, they know what they get from him.
who he is. They know what he stands for, they know how he's going to campaign, they know how he's going to govern and they approve of it, and so you know why change right. Why not stick with the candidate that
no, you like the, I will state university, civics pull the dave Petersen conducts actually favours trump little
heavily than a lot of the polling averages out there. These results.
Tromp in the loading fifties, while polling averages and the same time frame
in the mid high forties, but the trend lines are the same. So this to me, the tablets or is that the republican party is defined by donald trump. Dave, told me that, historically, our republicans can be broken down into three
state groups. The ilo publican party historically has been free. Tromp was this sort of one third christian evangelical one third term.
wrong, Paul, libertarian, one third mitt, romney, sort of old school fiscal, conservative, sort of aspect and a relative outcomes have always been fairly close between those. So if you have all three camps
presented its been relatively balanced and sort of along the lines with the rest of the country of the republican party in the country, but trump has managed to blur those traditional lines since twenty. Sixteen, the big changes now trump is dominating the party right, those factions, art
dominant anymore. To me, the divide in the party is now a divide over trump right. Are you a trump loyalist or you're trumped sceptic or you a trump opposition? Those are the three camps now so, for those republicans do want to see trunk on the question becomes. Can the trumps captain
in the trunk. Haters come together behind one candidate in went in iowa, some republican power brokers believe
There is still a lot of voters out their interested in a trump alternative, rhonda santa synergy
Here we have one major endorsement from important our republicans
Particularly leaders of I was eating. Angelica base people like bob vander plants, the president of the family, leader and influential christian organisations, who fun fact endorse my could be rixey anton
and yes, ted crews. Before all three one, the ira carcasses used five interplay
on cps back in august, and the irish state fair, I think trop is tailor made to get the faded here.
That's how crucial I. What is this new round if trunk get speedier unease game on,
the nomination of trop whence here I think he runs the table. The nomination, despite trumps dominance in the polls. It's not hard to find. I republicans were we're ready to vote for someone else. We went to an event in sioux center iowa,
far northwest corner. The state hosted by our representative, really feel straw and his wife radiantly not have invited all the candidates. It was called their faith in family with the fiend stress. It was held it.
george university, a private evangelical christian college unity to work effectively towards christ centred renewal in every area of life. Well, politics is one area of life.
This is the beating heart of revenge to god for our direction and guidance, and our leader should do the same thing. Most of the voters. We talk to you a nice.
They say about donald trump, but some are ready to move on. Personally, I feel, like trump is lake, the graham by you love, but your kind of embarrassed have right now: morgan is twenty seven and from our
You know I was in all you thought he did a really good job in the end. You want him.
to do well, and he just he's embarrassing ass and that an idle
like that and I feel bad for him and I feel bad for americans that we all have to go through this because of some people who are who are not very nice to him. Ultimately, I mean, if he's the nominee, I'm gonna vote for him, but I won't be caucusing for him. I thought he had a good impact, but I do think that he was a little bit of a loud mouth and I think he used to know when to shut his mouth every once in a while spencer. Very plug is nineteen and a student at duke university, but other than that he had some really good policies and made some rate changes. But at the end of the day, I think that's, what's going to get america back on track to being more unified countries, if we don't have someone, that's constantly pointing fingers and saying to the other side, is the devil or something like that I'll be caucasus?
for the santos campaign, Dustin rodgers forty one from george iowa trump would never sit down at an event like this and talk about faith, family and true leadership, trump struggles when there's not somebody else on stage to make fun of her domain eg, that's the reality. You can like some of his policies, but it comes down to character. It comes down to leadership and we don't have that with every candidate. So almost everyone we spoke to was critical of trump, but the only person who said he wouldn't vote for him in the general election.
Was not taken a twenty two year old from little rock island. I think, just as a christian, I dont think he really lives in the light of Christ.
Most certainly has policies were beneficial, but I think, apart from your policies, yell set of character, and I think that sets a good example. I won't want my kids growing up in a country. Where
He is the primary character setter after the break. If
this sort of the incumbent. Why is it doing better?
The.
So some islands are clearly looking for an alternative to trot.
This is not an insignificant number dave, peterson's team, it I was state- thinks it trumps, pulling, isn't all good news if trumpet sort of the incumbent. Why is it you doing better right away? Why is he only at fifty percent, which is exactly the opposite narrative from everything else? The way they
is that so many people are focused on trumps, lead that they could be overlooking a weakness in its numbers. His team, ass republican cocky scores how they vote
in the twenty twenty general election compared to who
we're supporting in this year's caucus, we asked our respondents. Would you vote for in twenty twenty ninety five percent of the likely caucus goers voted for trump? Why aren't ninety five per cent supporting him now? If I were to santas or haley, I would be spending way more time. Putting you know what is fifty per cent the iowa caucus mean in historical perspective, but if you think about trump as the incumbent republican candidate and you compare him to
combine president's have done he's under performance right. So in nineteen eighty eighty-
wait when carter was running, it gets Kennedy. Carter got fifty nine percent, while in iowa in ninety two new hampshire, George w bush only got fifty percent against pat buchanan kennedy and buchanan, or hailed as these deep challenges to the candidacy of the incumbent president,
That's a really good point, because I think one thing folks have understand about iowa and the way it's viewed is it's not
always about winning, and I were even it's about exceeding expectations. I think the
something I have made, and I assume allow journalists make is that trump will say I
didn't win iowa last time, but I did this time. Therefore, I sort of bested myself, although, let's be honest, he disputed those election results too. So what do you think of that? Yet right I mean what matters is the narrative and story that comes out of the the race, but the like the idea that winning fifty percent in the iowa caucuses is this massive blow out?
right is kind of disconnected from the history of the ilo caucasus. All of this is interesting, but my
It says that this history, what matter
as much as just winning. Can I doubt the press,
or will spend much time, comparing trumps result to Jimmy
there's margin over tat kennedy back in eighteen? Eighty I wanted
talk to an iowa republican operative to see
All of this looks from inside the party, so I called david cudgel. We are connected
from the party miller a few years back and David Koch, I've been the republic
consult man, I was since the nineteen eighty four cycle: six presidential campaigns, bob door, Lamar alexander mitt, romney, twice job bush- I guess don't twice. Maybe I don't know if you ve forgotten amity campaigns. You worked on. That's a pretty good credential
which was the most fun, are the most fun, I would say, was definitely not twenty. Sixteen cattle is one of those, never trump republicans who hates how trump has changed the republican party, and he thinks there is a path to beating trump. Even if it's a narrow one, we talked back in late november. I think seventy percent of iowans consistently in every poll that I've seen private polling public polling. Seventy percent of islands are open to someone else now. Some of those people are saying they'll vote for trump in the cox's
that's why we gotta do. This is why we gotta play the game. You got to campaigns right now in hayley into santa's were putting a lot into this highly just got the f p endorsement recent endorsement by americans for prosperity action. The group is backed by billionaire charles coke, which brings with it. You are probably a
and professionals on the ground, one hundred or so are dozens and dozens of paid canvassers. So all of a sudden she's got some ground game to play with de santos has been there finishing up as ninety nine county tour you gotta do all ninety nine like that
people that do that are the ones that when iowa- but it's also just an important tradition- it's important to have this fight because I think trump is vulnerable. I do think it's the state. I think they're worried about them.
then, as this field is starting to consolidate. Yet
I mean he's at risk of having to take somebody on one on one from versus the field, hildy
a hundred percent of the time trump verses, one other person in a state? That's really paying attention to this thing. He's vulnerable. These states in particular like to surprise people, and they do surprise. People
and you know it doesn't take much to change the nature of a race and dumb. You know these things have their own storylines. They have their own narratives at some point. You know if, if it's him verses, one gifted opponent,
and its close he may have to debate them, and then you know you see what happens by the way if he were to
Please could you imagine the meltdown, oh god, yeah that he would have on true, socially, would be epic yeah kind of hoping for that. Katyal is right that early state voters love to.
prizes in frankly admires optimism, but I'm still sceptical of arguments that trump
poll numbers in iowa, somehow show weakness, or
Any these candidates could be trump even in a one on one race, republican voters, love donald trump
and just like back and twenty sixteen, it's not at all clear when this might turn into a one on one race over the past few months
The field has gotten a little smaller with hopefuls liked him scott, my pants dropping out of their self.
I've trump challengers left
Inhaling dissent is leading the pact that sad, if support, did dip beloved
percent. There would mathematically be a path for a single challenger hears day petersen, the bolstered. I will state mapping out the electorate again, and so we sort of asked a lot of different questions about this. You know we asked questions about january. Sixth, we ask questions about the twenties won. The election we go
people, three choices, Joe Biden, one a fair election, Joe Biden, one with some irregularities or donald trump one. But what you find is that the people who say trump one from
Nothing wrong wrong. Trump has never done anything wrong.
those are trump supporters, that half the party but the other half the trunk sceptics are the people who choose the middle.
Biden one, but there were some irregularities or trumps done some stuff wrong, but not crimes. That's two scientists support right that these people were not opposed to trumpet skeptical of him.
backing to santa's and then Haley's pulling from the opposition the people whose
Biden wanted a fair election. The people is a trump has committed serious crimes and we asked people who art supporting trump. Why
and they gave us essentially two sets of answers once it
answer was I'm not supporting trump, because
I donald trump because of january sixth, because of the indictments those people are backing. Nicky hailing the disadvantaged people say it's time.
A change or I just like another candidate, better rights. Are there not supporting trump but they're? Not it's sort of incidental to what trump has done. That
That's the divide that I'm seeing over and over again in these answers. So if the trump sceptics a k to santa supporters in the trump opposition, a k, a hayley supporters were to come together against trump under one trump alternative and believe me, that's a big if they may be able to give trump a competitive race, but based on the polling that doesn't seem to be happening. The I will call from the domain register has been tracking voters second choices, and if you look at the descent, his supporters,
most of them are still willing to vote for trump. Here's NBC Steve Carnegie, laying it all up, but this poor family ass disorders, voters, if
leaves the who would be
second choice in
Forty one percent said donald trump would be there
extra is only twenty seven percent said it here,
would be there next restock. That's a thing.
Keep in mind when you look at these numbers here for somebody like hayley for any of these other non from candidates as they drop out
not all that the votes of somebody who drops out are going to the non from canada. A lot of them are going to build a trump at this post.
I have to say this drops out from benefits more than
key hayley dust. On top of that, the pull tell us that most of the people planning the boat for trump are locked us with,
death to his support that we're seeing in our poor nearly
third sixty three percent of farms backer, say their minds are already made up and they are definitely voting for him. Then there is the fact that hayley and dissent is somewhere for
on each other than the actual front runner, but David cultural says they have no choice.
point in the campaign that were at now with alien to scientists being the only two viable alternatives to trump is they can
have to go at each other, but there's no other way to do it. They are in a competition to see who gets to go into the finals. He'll trump card
as by weak and their training,
and the finals and so on,
it's frustrating to people. Why are they? You know trump's killing them? Why are they going after the guy who was at fifty yeah except, like I said you know, the denver nuggets have to beat the phoenix suns before they can play your celtics.
Right, and so that's what's going on and give this gotta play out. It's gonna happen real fast. I think it will happen
fast, if we have a one on one by new Hampshire watch up, meanwhile, nothing from does seems to turn off his base. I mean the guy has been attacking
Kim reynolds, the very popular governor who, via he's been attacking bob vander plants, is very influential.
leader and I were gone and paid a play. Have you seen any evidence that those
Oh, I think any normal person would call misstep actually as hurt him give is
all the different, I don't think so,
fans are his vance first and foremost, but
He just doesn't have to play by the same rules as any other candidate he's a unicorn
never been another trump. There never be another trump I mean his most famous per
in the world, he is more of a.
Liberty than a politician it.
kind of a movement. At this point I mean some called a cold. I kind of agreed with that rail system
I knew him gravity doesn't apply to him there working.
hell, for the series is: what are we doing here, sort of like something I could say from the ground, but also something that one could ask about? Everyone is travelling to. I want to watch at this point in the key hayley rhonda santas, and maybe the vague compete for second, but it sounds like you're very firmly in the camp of absolutely. This does have a purpose. We should be
beating here this. This makes sense. It might summarizing you correctly and frankly, I feel very strongly about this time. We have to have to healthy parties in this country. My party isn't as healthy with trump leading it
and if you're gonna move past
I presume the best way to do it is to be in in the republican party not beat him in the courts not beat him. You know with the Democrats.
I think it's really important if we can solve this
and nominate someone else. I think we have to try to do it so to me as much as it looks difficult now with
You know of the national pulling numbers which are meaningless until these action
Tonto start happening as difficult as it looks. It's a worthy enterprise. We can cleanse the pot.
be largely if we could nominate someone like Nicky Hayley.
Dissenters.
generation. You really kind of turn the page and we haven't won an election since he was elected president in two thousand and sixteen. So from my perspective, we should
Would, I hope someone takes them on one one and starts eating him in context.
and then we can pop the cork when it's
sudden dunning nominates somebody else, but yeah
firmly in the camp of we gotta. Have this contest and see what happens so casual says we have to play the game, but my fear is that enough
republican party? The game is over a long time ago. We must
with that. A lot where it could be more meaningful than ever that Brian Fallon steal from the des moines register, but also we could end this exactly the way we started with trump as as the presumptive. In a front runner nominee and I think the
matters to a right. There was a real fight and I were people really got behind these other candidates. Islands game.
I'm a real chance- and you know that
something I think about where the party is at. If you know the winner, faraway away still ends up being donald trump to me and to everyone else. I talk to you for this episode. That seems like the most like
the outcome. But of course you don't really know until carcass night next time,
join us as we drive around. I wait and see what the race for second place really looks like we're. Having a walk. He threatened
an agony and routes and new deny, which said jasper. Can we go to events in here the case each candidates making taiwan's? We need to reverse the decline of this country. We need a new birth of freedom, all three.
The land and talk with voters do here what's driving them to carcass vaccine safety, that your primary and communist china live up to. Our second episode drops on friday, see them
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Transcript generated on 2024-01-12.