The welcome to pod save america, I'm john faroe, tommy Peter I'm dyin, pfeiffer, Dan Pfeiffer, dan Have you down here, and I haven't seen you guys and seventy two hours. I am sick of arson we're not to get his that's for sure today show we got a big election day for democrats to talk about it. Somewhat meaningless debate for republicans, who are vying for second place in the edge yogi primary. The twenty three elections were excellent for democrats and those of us who want to keep abortion legal in ohio to ballot measures, one to enshrine abortion rights and state constitution and the other to leave

Why is marijuana both passed by a margin of fifty seven to forty three percent in Virginia democrats held the state senate and flipped the statehouse, which means glen young kin, will not be able to pass the fifteen week. Abortion ban that he and republican candidates campaigned on in in deep red kentucky pro choice: democratic governor, Andy, beshear, defeated anti abortion extremists, Daniel Cameron, by fifty three to forty, eight percent democrats came up short in the mississippi governor's race, but only by about five points. We also picked up a state supreme court seat in pennsylvania and a few more seats in the democratic, controlled new jersey legislature. as you can imagine, most of these results gave the pundits on fox in news max a case of the sads. You know ever since roby wade miss overturn pretty much every time. The Democrats have run an abortion. They have won and was last night at a harbinger for two thousand and twenty fours you're, alluding to easily absolutely the most All their republicans are probably pro life, but what is most important?

republicans taking over and republicans being able to keep our country what a epic failure by governor yoke and this a huge loss, it did does seem like did the republican party generally has a real problem with with winning and you put very sexy things like abortion and marijuana on the ballot and a lot of young people come out vote. Thank goodness that most of the states in this country don't allow you to put everything on the ballot because sure democracies are not the way to run a kosovars, Rick Santorum, the the winner of the twenty twelve and republican iolcus, give notice it did I do see has been the voice of reason on fox and IRAN's alot clip that yeah outside our dan, I'm just straight the people at home. I love the of the hot take on new max republicans has seem to have a problem with winning

sure do recent retain term democracies of democracies. Are the problem like we we're getting that message from her and they the plan? We we hear you clear. So it seems like the big headlines on a tuesday is that wherever abortion access is on the ballot choice wins dan. Is that your take away? You have other big take away from the night before we get into each state that that is the takeover, It is clear that abortion, which was for decades the single most polarizing partisan issue in america. Politics is now actually transcended partisanship. You have the democratic governor of Kentucky state, the down from one by twenty six points campaigning on stopping abortion beds, who ran an incredibly powerful, add opposing abortion bans without exception. You see across the board in all the states in ohio. The initiative to amend the constitution to protect abortion rights did better and almost single county than Joe Biden did and twenty it is a tremendously

foreign galvanizing issue remains so today, eighteen months after the supreme court overturned road way, which is sort of stunning, and are you no attention span of an amoeba media culture we live in and I think we will look that there are certain things in story that fundamentally shift the way politics are conducted, the change electoral coalitions in railways and, I think, the old scream courts overturning of ruby weight is one of those things that has changed politics more than once it has been. The Democrats will win every single time, but it means that politics is different today than it was before that day, because an unelected supreme court took away a constitutional right from more than half of this country, and that is not something that has happened in american history yeah and there they were eyes on a few takes before these elections were like. Will abortion still?

the same power it had and twenty twenty two mid term and some of these specials and by all accounts it sure, did boy in mississippi presley. The Democrat was not rejoice and he lost. That is something that you can look at me. You wouldn't think going in this election that we were worried about was we have his election louisiana where Democrats did terribly across the board and a low turn out didn't get to thirty percent. In most of us, I'd races in the question was we all you know, we'd all agree to. Never speak of. That was a fifth

was that a warning sign that the sort of democratic enthusiasm, the anti maga majority had finally succumb to the political gravity that we see from traditional political gravity, present approval ratings people spending the economy, and that was a state where abortion was not the issue that is elsewhere, because the incumbent, outgoing democratic governor, was anti choice. Right. Let's talk about a few, the big races in twenty nineteen andy beshear barely won his first term as kentucky governor by less than half a percentage point. Of course it was an incumbent republican governor at the time, Matt Bevin and in two thousand and twenty trump won the state. twenty six points and now in twenty three bashir wins a second term by five points. Tommy we're all move a few weeks ago, knocking on doors we'll lovell, lower level were knocking on doors with plan parenthood yeah. Why do you think procurement furies? Why do we not endorse grad school? I was, but that was the answer. I was open, focus lovett chase down that woman at the golden doodle one too.

It's really hard to beat in coming governor cook political report said that only two in coming nurse have lost reelection since twenty eighteen, one of them was bevin in kentucky ambitious cases, also extremely popular. I think his approval writing was consistently in the cities which is insane to any of us who work in national moussa consular governor in america. Yeah he's also the son of a previous to term popular governor that helps he is seen as competent, empathetic approachable by a by voters that I'll just call him Andy. He did a great job responding to covered in all these natural disaster. If that were hitting the state I saw Nate Cohn. I believe at the new york times suggest that beshear actually did better in counties that had been hit hard by flooding, which is speaks maybe the response. I let it we heard that from some people in louisville of you guys. Otherwise I cannot oil. I remember who was, but some people who live there were saying that it is. We ve been through a lot

the last couple years. Disaster wise Anita is just he's just when air, yet again he's been there for the whole state, every one sort of like rallied together for sure you have mentioned me. He ran hard on abortion rights. I do think his opponent, Daniel Cameron, made it easier to run that kind of camp eggs cameron had an extreme position on abortion. They made him susceptible to messaging, but also the shear, was smart. He ran a kentucky focused campaign. Ah, he did not allow to get nationalized. He talked to in his victory speech. He talked about how he campaign with jack harlow from Kentucky, not Sarah Huckabee sanders who's. Arkansas bashir also hammered cameron, school vouchers and then organise labour loves bashir. president of the? U s w local eight sixty to set about Bashir quote. I take a bullet for him. He's that important

to the families of MEI yu lau. He also yeah, I mean that's a hell of a quote. He also raced a lot more money than his opponent, so just all around a hell of a candidate hell, the governor held the campaign so beshear twenty twenty eight, that's what people are saying that many people are saying these people are tweeting. That's great! It's great! It's good news for good news for kentucky good news for Andy beshear Virginia Democrats were predicted to hold the state senate. The state house was seen as a toss up. Glen young kin went all in to get his trifecta. His pac spent nearly eight million dollars These races, including half a million of his own cash, which he is rich enough, that that doesn't seem actually so much for that was unless fortunately campaigned all across the state. Can paint, specifically on a fifteen week, abortion ban by presenting it as some kind of a compromise that was the big grit. That was that the republican geniuses think that the fifteen week abortion ban. This is what lindsey graham tried to do in the senate

do they have. This is that this is the solution for them in their political solution, did not work in Virginia dan. What's your take away, and does this mean the young kindness? Twenty twond for geo P. Savior beaumont is finally over, and I try to start that. I know you did I may I was. I was wondering if you member, I or alma, and I just have others don't. I think probably the end of the at least twenty four years can can let what is interesting here is the republicans in that state ran ahead of trump and twenty twenty, but behind young cannon, when twenty one so that it will at the little one piece news that isn't quite as good as, although I dug into that it was like, they all, ran ahead to try and get ones like virginia,

it is a purple state, that's pretty close to blue and just across the board demographically. It models very well with the post trump democratic coalition. It has a high turnout state because of because of for that very reason, and so it's warmer democrats should do well, but the fact that Democrats did well with a present of their own party in the white house. It's a huge operation? It's been it's very rare. Virginia always has these off cycle elections and usually just how young can one in the first place, they are. Usually the the party of the president fares poorly in time, and so this is a huge exception, and that says, I think, a lot about the power Russia's we're talking about also the failure of this republican. Tragic, as I think this is these elections are, testing grounds for the national parties, particularly in virginia about what messages work and what don't this was the test. If that had worked here, it would be, every republican would be adopting it by the end of tomorrow. By the time you hear this podcast. That did not happen, and that says a lot about how far the republicans have to go to solve their

abortion prom, which may be frankly insoluble, given donald trump role on this, that their long history on it and that's a positive sign for democrats saw before we saw recording jade event say we gotta try for this fifteen weak abortion ban because of what happened in them. That's that's the key, and it's like. Have you looked at the world? You just see what happened to Glenn, janka and republicans in virginia. I think he probably can't overstate how big of a tactical error it was for young can come out for the fifteen week abortion ban if he had not proactively propose that there would have been much for democrats to run against if they'd runs boring bland economic, focused inflation focus campaign, the very likely have done better and potentially one, but but giving Democrats this this fifteen we ban to rally against was enormous, shiny, aren't the indians as national ambitions and it'd be very hard for republican governor post dobbs world to not advance some sort of bans, or he was trying to split the difference between

and being seen as a rhino and essex weekend. I was, he did not work as voters understand what is at stake here. They may see through the bullshit, and you can tell that's why Donald trump and all the other republican candidates have been had been so squarely on a nest well ban and said things like. Oh well, I don't I mean whatever comes to me. You know maybe I'll sign or other, but it's not it's never going to get that far or worse trump said I'm just going to make the best deal. I'm get the best deal on abortion, because you know young can do this and it didn't work out too well for trump is dumb and a lot of ways. A lot of things he says are very stupid, but politically on this issue. He has been very savvy in terms of just not letting this primary drag him further to the right on an issue that he noses is toxic for him. Any of the the it's just worth pointing out that the Democrats State ran on keeping abortion legal through twenty six weeks and then the third trimester allow abortion access. If you ve got three referrals from three different doctors

so incredibly onerous requirement for the third trimester, but they did try to put some constraints on abortion access. It's worth mentioning. I just think it's important that every single Democrat who is running for office, who was talking to voters assert the republicans if they get a trifecta, are going to pass a national abortion. Absolutely there is no way that majority leader mitch, Mcconnell and speaker might johnson of all for not sending a national bush ban to donald trump desk in there's? No way is not saying that note up well to tell you. I don't care how many pinocchio someone gives you or that that is reality. No, let's dig into it like to think that that wouldn't happen. You have to believe that either that Mitch Mcconnell would save the filibuster if he has the senate. Ramphias republican senate would say the filibuster and then say no abortion ban, because I'm keeping the filibuster or miss connell, who is like the alot of republicans in his caucus. Now aren't really were ms mckenna,

is like he's like the rhino republican, and we think that, if republicans take the senate in twenty twenty, four and they'll be even more crazy. Trompe republicans like will measure Mcconnell even be majority leader. At that point, it is a good chance. Metro doesn't run for majority that area, but yeah and then the next person is gonna, be of mega person and, of course, they're gonna get rid of the filibuster misrule collar was like hold. It pretending that he was going to hold onto the filibuster, maybe because he thinks of himself as some institutionalise, but, like I don't see this as a possibility. I don't care if you you write like even if you go fact check this like it's, it's just. It takes a lot to believe that they would preserve the filibuster. and not pass a national worshipfully, most likely person to be set a majority leader if it is not mature economies. Jonathan, I worked on to campaigns against lanthorn and south dakota a long long time ago, and he is about as far right out

as it gets him yeah. The this show is sponsored by better help. Talk about how you feel about the end of the year season. Do you look forward to the holidays? Maybe you struggle with seasonal blues sheriff me from that comes to mind. I mean had our now yasser you gotta. We get a lot of torres going after the holidays than I'm having another child, so yeah there's a lot we're on the lot. There's a lot on them on my plate. Look here: you're, you're, you're, pod boys they're running ragged a little ragged right now, and you know what we We must stop and talk about our feelings. That's why you need therapy if we think of starting therapy give better.

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I'm huge family run up shop, tommy jones, fantastic, Wednesday sale going on right now, save twenty five percents sitewide, a tommy john dot com, slash crooked, twenty five percent off everything for a limited time: a tommy, john dot com, slash cricket, see site for details. so ohio in twenty midterms. TIM Ryan lost the ohio senate race to JD vance. By about six points one year later. One year later, the voters have guaranteed portion rights and legalised marijuana. Fifty seven, forty three tommy what do you think's going on in ohio and does this, give you more hope the shared brown could pull at another one and twenty four, so that this result,

was driven by very strong democratic turn out. I think I read that self reported Biden, voters, the exit polls outnumbered trump voters by two points, but again this is it a state trump one by eight points, however, it was low turn out. Generally three point: eight six million ballots were cast an issue. One compare to four point, four point: one four million votes in that erase the tim ryan center race last year, so low turnout but lots of democrats, the margin of victory was driven by really strong support from women sixty three percent of whom voted. Yes, a black voters. Eighty three percent voted: yes, latino voters. Seventy three percent voted yes and then young voters nearly eighty per cent of voters, eighteen to twenty nine voted. Yes, as opposed to only forty five per cent of voters sixty four or older. It has also driven by college graduates unmarried bought. So you know, in addition to this as being a really strong democratic turn out. There's a broader coalition of support for

abortion rights, and there was for TIM ryan or for democrats on the ballot. Usually red meat is, she wondered better than ryan did with unmarried men, trump voters, independence and moderates. I think if anyone can recreate that group, excited Democrats turning out and able to persuade traditional conservatives it is someone like Sherrod brown. I do think, though the electorate is going to be completely different in twenty twenty four, I think I read that the electorate is likely to be sixty to ninety per cent higher larger in two thousand twenty four. Then it was this cycle. So it's going to be really tough in election year to win ohio but shared the kind of candidate that can do it yeah. It's like another, two million voters in ohio over the midterms. Yet it was sick. It was almost six million voters and twenty twenty I mean it also by the way, the much maligned near times for which will get it up. We are has forty percent of trump voters saying

that abortion should be always or mostly legal, and I think that also helps explain. There is eighteen, counties in ohio that voted for trump, and it also voted for this abortion amendment. Now some of that is turn out. essential right, because so you look at a county like that, like a trump county, and it's only democrats in that county turned out for the abortion access that that's possible. But the new york times poll also suggest that there are some trump voters, which trump obviously knows who like trump and will vote for trump, but also want to protect abortion access, which again, voters are fuckin. Weird said a million times. Twenty four percent of white Angelica lrs voted yes on issue one, while, according to exit polls yeah I mean, if it makes you wonder if part of the messaging is is libertarian as well as sort of like keeping these decisions away from the government. Course, Theo high legislature already is saying that they're going to try to overturn the will of the voters on both weed and a boar shocker. Please don't do that on the november

twenty twenty four about young adults and by the way the marijuana referendum was a total after thought, I was When we were in cleveland, we were talking to some folks, ido selected, some folks of the state party. They were like not focused on this at all. I just kind of got tossed on the ballot by thinking different of activists in organizers in it just got you pulled over the line. I think I was. because it's not obviously an amendment like the abortion mehmet is. It could be easier for the republican legislature to

screw with the marijuana measure. By just like re appropriating funds and passing some law, then it will be with the abortion amendment it's much harder to screw with the constitutional amendment, though they claim they're going to try. So, of course, speaking of twenty twenty four, there has been a lively debate on the internet and cable news about what these results might mean for Joe Biden's reelection campaign, our friends at playbook laid out the two theories of the case, as only they can do theory. One is called time to chill out. Polls are one thing, actual votes or another. These are not election returns consistent with Biden's forty percent approval ratings, but sheer

and despite tons of glp money that was spent trying to time to Biden, so there's plenty of room for the incumbent to recover. That's the theory that the the Biden campaign likes we've been seeing that online. A lot to theory, too, is called time to freak out. The polls are absolutely right. The problem isn't the democratic brand. It's Joe Biden, the anti maga coalition that showed up in twenty eighteen, twenty twenty and twenty twenty two is still intact. But it's not going to show up for just anybody. Trump will bring his voters out next year and americans are giving every possible signal that they won't be happy if the alternative is Biden Dan. What do you think you get one though there is, nobody wants an algerian pick, one like every because playboy we're playing book ruling in years there is black and white left and right does it I love the choices. Are everything is fine, do not worry or everything is a doomed give up, and there is nothing in the middle. There much to say about us and who I just want to say:

by trying to explain how it is possible that Joe Biden could be behind tied with her behind donald trump in several swings dates and At the exact same moment, Democrats can win huge victories in states like ohio, kentucky and virginia in here is why, having a very simplification which is The voters said Joe Biden is having the most trouble with right. Now are less engaged voters there. The voters who did not show up

So in the new york times siena polling that this analysis, the Nate cohn, did prior to this most recent poll in all of their polling to date. Prior to this, one, Joe Biden is up by four points among people who voted in the two thousand and eighteen election. He is down by several points with people who did not vote in this one. Eighteen election, the turnout in twenty twenty four is likely to be thirty to forty percent higher than it was in twenty. Twenty. Two, so a whole bunch of people who are telling pollsters that they are currently not happy with Joe Biden did not turn out on tuesday did not turn out twenty twenty two, but are going to return out in two thousand and eighteen. Yet they are returned to electorate. We are now the part. Democrats are now the party of the most highly engaged voters in the because the changes in the media environment thickly, since twenty twenty, because

between the highly engage voters and everyone else has never been greater and so that that is why it is possible that the entire theme of the last season of the wilderness and kiss one could get the fact and I could like in a plugin where's message about thus several die. They may have a fury fuelled message. axon this command, but so the point here is special elections. Prickly offs, like of gas, are not great predictors of what is going to happen. We'll take the example of in two thousand and twelve democrats tried to recall wisconsin governor scott walker was walker easily one that election easily defeated the recall. Only a few months before present obama was can take on romney in a state of amr. Then one was council, my seven points, because the turnout was massively was continent, a pie

Ryan's upstate! Ok he's already get. Yes, that's exactly! Thank you hiding we need to say that, but it doesn't mean that, are there isn't relevant information in what happened like? What have everything that happened yesterday. First, is good, for america is good for people, those states there are people whose lives were saved because he's abortion man's will not go into place and which is why we started with all that right and there s the most important thing ass right and if any young, young, kindergartners trifecta a whole bunch of really terrible gunwales would have been passed and reject. That did not happen, but so that that point one point to is. That is also what

is evidence of some good news for democrats of what to look at right. It is in its on a protector, but it is an indicator, and some of the good news in there is one as we ve talked about, abortion is still the number one issue that is very important right, that that is a bad is wind. Echo binds back to what the number well for the electorate that showed up and for a good chunk of the democratic party. It is extremely salient issues, but if you look at the democratic voters, that Joe Biden is currently struggling with, abortion is a huge issue for them for them. Yes, so that means there is work to do their right. That's we should view these poses a road map of the who, the voters we have to talk to you and how we have to convince them.

And to abortion, is gonna, be hugely important issue to reconstitute be twenty twenty elect coalition. That elected a button to running this is really important. Is that turn out as on an accident right? The electron victories are not just the result of some sort of rule about who can vote? Who can is the democratic campaign? Machinery is working and it is kicking republican, asses, left and right, and that is important. The other thing is and this is not getting enough attention and you could write down the trump- is winning and then york times poll in those swing states. But there's a lot of stuff underneath you guys talked about some of this in the tuesday podcast. They should be very alarming for donald trump and republicans. They are terribly divided on abortion, they're chubby, divided on donald trump. Who is actually

less popular than Joe Biden yeah, even in that poll, even within his own party's voters. Yes, yep, and the other thing is really important in this played out in a lot of these lot. Of these races around the country is donald trump is forcing at political gunpoint a series of republican candidates to adopt his lies on the two thousand and twenty election, which kills them with a huge swaths of voters, and that is going to happen up and down the ballot in two thousand. Twenty four of Donald trump's nominee, which in tuesday nights results. Republican secretary of state candidate in kentucky was the only one on the ticket only state. What can it till I reject? Election denial? Is the sector estate and but ran on that, he did better than every other republican on the ticket. Sales are once again election. Interesting Lee. Look a view if you locked a bunch of nerds in a room- and you gave half of them believe what we just did right here. Well, what we're? Currently, if you locked a bunch of nerds in the room and you gave them or leave the polling potentially about

these races. These results are not surprising if you locked us, im nerds in a room gave them joe by approval rating in all these other states and told them there was an off year midterm election. These results be very surprising right, so that this is the kind of disconnect work or tunnel work through. The challenge for Biden in the new york times poll is that a lot of the problems were specific to him in particular age and concerns about his handling of the economy. And then, if you look at the cross tabs, he has particular challenges with young voters and voters of color. Maybe it's the case that if the twenty twenty four campaign all about abortion writes that that issue can bring back those young voters in those voters color and get them to turn out not a home, and that's how you make up the difference and at times when you win reelection, but I don't think that's a guarantee. I think, obviously, that the Biden campaign is a lot agency here. This is going to be something they focus on, but the other challenges, as you said, pardon the electorate is, can be incredibly different in twenty twenty four

You now have a lot of common disaffected, less engaged voters. They tend to vote against incumbents, especially when their super pissed off, and one thing we know from every paul- is at the wrong track number. Is it like? Seventy percent is historically high and that's a really challenging set up for an incumbent president going into a reelection abroad. wilderness. Not just for the plug, but because I also for the four out of the black most favourable, but also I saw the new york times poll and I've seen other polls since then, like it brought me back to the focus groups that I did for the wilderness and it at the outset. I thought that the I did a focus group in virginia of Biden, voters who then switch to young kin- and I was like oh those are going to be the the tough voters because they voted republican Those were the people who are most like. Oh, I did it for whatever reason I'll come back to Biden, isolate the Democrats on pro choice. They were the best that the pencil they Voters were like slightly disaffected. They were all like ready.

Fetterman always comes up the the voters that were most disappointed in Biden that were cranky ist, where the young voters in california, the black voters in atlanta and the hispanic voters in LAS vegas, the very groups that Japan's have run with, and then I talked to like a ton of strategists and pollsters in the party who all agreed. This is this is the issue, so this is not like Nate Cohn in the new york times, and some media pollsters doing this. This are like democratic party strategist. All know this john della volpe e joe Biden's put one of his pollsters and twenty twenty just had an op ed in the new york times says Joe Biden's in trouble about young voters. Cylinder lake has been talking about needing to reconstitute with another poster that we've had on this podcast and who also has worked for Joe Biden. She's talked about it too, so this is not like, and am I saying this to like freak people outright liked Joe Biden. We want him to win

do everything we can to get them to win like. I still think he can, when I think there is a clear path for victory here but, like I don't think it does anyone any good to just that there be, like the media, said, read, wave and they're wrong again and every time that every time there is an election, they just prove them. You're are wrong and all the pundits and beau it's like. No. Actually, the polls have been right, every single special election and midterm now for the last several cycles, where they have been off of the presidential races which, by the way, are the races that have this completely different, bigger electorate which are harder to measure. in pole in which way they ve been off John and the present crisis they ve been more and more favourable to Democrats. Yeah copious is not a good drug to get hooked on. No one should none of us want to repeat this mistake, the twenty sixteenth note, no one trying to bum anybody out or suppress her, and I made two hundred like. I understand why you're buying supporters can take a victory lap and in dunking on people are critical of him cause. You know

I care deeply about your candidate and you want to push back, but you know, I think we all should be clear. Eyed, no one wants to repeat mistakes. We all made and twenty sixteen of thinking there's no way we could lose one lessing, just how nice is it to not have any one contests seeing the results election, even the craziest right wingers, nobody was like here. But I saw was saying that there, the isa cameron was like. What's all pray for, bishop girl saving up for twenty four. Also, when you lose my five points, its own uncontested donald trump, then they will more than about this pool of voters. We're gonna show up in the general election that have not in the presidential election that have not shown up in these special emit terms like if you look at the new york times polling and a consensus in his peace today, the folks who showed up for these twenty twenty three off your elections or like the Democrats, it shut up our pretty favourable towards Biden. You brought up the ohio ex uphold its plus two biden, so it's not like it's. There are specific problems that bide might have, but when I get

is about as not just problems that bide may have, but like this pool of voters, this disaffected pool of voters there more moderate they are younger their voters of color there. They they sort of more cynical about politics and institutions they're harder to reach. They don't consume as much news they're hard to reach with ads. Like I just worry about them long term for the party, because it's much he I think it is easier for republicans to make a case like aren't you pissed about shit and don't you want to like tear institutions down that? I like it's just it's a longer term issue that I actually worry about that goes beyond yoga. Yet when we talked about this after twenty twenty, there were obviously very troubling signs among blacks. it and latino voters- tuna, younger voters, thou college occasions across the board- and there was a big sigh relief after twenty twenty two, but it we didn't really test the proposition

because the voters are most concerned about and did not vote and that election they re, not mid term voters, and so we don't know like this pole is consistent with their tasks was consistent with that trend continuing ray and will also look? It's it's possible that a good chunk of these disaffected voters don't show up and the president, that's on a man images which is bad for democracy, but also the electorate than could possibly look more like a mid term elections. Absolute that low now I'm not I'm not rooting for internet, but I'm just saying we don't. There's difference in here is where it's gonna be ok for Democrats right, but it all depends on the shape of the elect is our point here. It depends on apples to oranges. Comparisons to just say the media said on twenty two and red graveyards, like a presidential electorate, is so so so different from mid term. Electorate We just used to live in a world, and this was true. Present obama and previous democrats was midterms were bad for democrats presidential years were better,

and that has shifted under trump. That is fundamentally shifted and the reason it has is because colleges- hated older voters. Wider voters used to be heavily republican, and that has changed and the number of these efforts at the last thing I ll say about this- is this is very challenging in execution, but has there has never been a race where it was more clear on how you win the you know. Exactly who the voters are you knowing how to how you get them back at heart, but we do I'll have to go, get a bunch of people who voted for Republican. the mid term yeah you got to get a bunch of people voted for tromp in twenty sixteen, or voted for trump and twenty twenty. You just have to get the people who voted for Joe Biden in six states to do it again and that that is an easy thing to do. But it is a clear clear path, and that means we actually have agency here right, and that is a very, very powerful thing, which is why you can have

have some more confidence about Joe binds ability to win. Then the poles, and so I suggest, because they are our voters, we have to get back. They are not people who we pre, who we previously never had before and to get granular about it. Its everyone has people on their lives? Who were not political junkies, like you all, are within the show, and these disinfect voters in all just like live in one place like they're they're all around us, and I do think that is going to fit with. What's going to make the difference, there is going out talking to people persuading people not being pissed off when someone just doesn't say like. Oh, I might not vote and yelling at them before it like it. It's really gonna take some some persuade were at every life show cuban anything we ve ever done. People say how do I taught my mag uncle thanksgiving fuck your magic Why nearby didn't ethical cousin right? That's what you want right binding out of your married what, if you're my johnson,

Is your accountability? Hey another bonus, there's a lots of huge pool now have super well informed trump jurors. That will be voting for the first time. Aware of excited you doing persuasion force alright before we get to break just a one, quick housekeeping note in case you missed it love at tommy, and I wrote a book and it's coming out june, twenty fifth, two thousand and twenty four guess what I've read the book, people Dan read the book. It's quite good thanks Dan Tommy supposed to have a whole script here, but he doesn't have it yet. I don't want to read that this. It's called democracy or else how to save america in ten easy steps We we just reveal the official cover this week was that about for you in it on every single book p are planned. The cover reveals a huge moment, step. One is buying it because crickets donating the profits to support votes in america, its partners and other organizations mobilizing for progressive outcomes in the twenty twenty four election and beyond danger.

Its hips for us and promoting a book I thought putting yourselves on mount rushmore, as the cover was kind of a real choice. What do we do that No labour colleague, MR he gave. Will you give cover criminal, loving, marry one percent that isn't that right away? You know the right people well check out the cover now and pre order, a cricket, dotcom such books or wherever books are sold exclusive, signed additions. What Just let's get. There are available from books up dot, org hard to believe, but we're only one year out from the two thousand twenty four elections. Time flies when you're having fun and nightmares. We got some big plans to cover twenty twenty four, the presidential race, the fight to take back the house and keep the senate state and local elections in what all of us can do to in the fight without losing their minds. Lot of you have asked us. What cricket in our mission and one great way, is to sign up for friends of the pod friends of the pod as our subscriber community, you get a ton of awesome content. That's just for subscribers. You get to be part of our discord, which is basically like a secret twitter. That's

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If america is brought to you by article love, article furniture, we have a lot in the office. I have some at home met someone over the weekend like listen to the pod and said I have a question about some of your ads. Do you italy have article furniture in this home- and I said yes, of course I have article furniture in this home- add some patio furniture outside and it's fantastic. What you think we make these things up of course, not anyway, it's affordable. It looks good very comfortable. They get their curated assortment of midcentury. Modern coastal industrial scanty in boyhood design, speak furniture shopping simple, they believe in If design for every home it thanks to their online only model, they have some really delightful. Prices to article offers fast, fordable shipping across the: u s in canada, They won't leave you waiting around. You pick the delivery time in they'll. Send you up its every step of the way articles double customer care team? Is there we need to make sure your experiences smooth and stress free articles offering our listeners fifty dollars off you first purchase of a hundred

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It was two hours of what what was that? What was that we just watched? I think we all went into this thinking this debate wouldn't really matter much anything happen to change your mind on that guy's. Now no loan obscure foreign policy fights which I enjoyed a kind of that tommy was into it. I was talking about boats and sanctions and get norm. You know jollies off, but now you my view this debate was if we can just escape a second donald trump presidency. We're going to beat a lot of republicans all the time. It's true. Those people were hoof, not good there. Good, I'm not I'm not afraid of any of those people. The whole thing was surreal: its live. They all dressed up. if they were ties. The moderator shut up with serious questionable, serious issues and everyone involved knew that none of you or every me prisoners its ever like they took time to ask them repeatedly with four questions.

About the specific ships that they would commission in the? U s naval their orders, given ahead as a person. Listen to this it did not watch this debate, so thank god for lest her hold christian work. I think they were how they have been the best moderator so far. I think they're both great and they d in for anyone who is now of the questions? I seriously doubt that day wrote a lot of these questions, ensure that is made by network brass and producers of their budgets in terms controlling the audience controlling the candidates, there's clapping in this, but then they like lester hold kept trying to come down and then they would really jump in when the candidates are talking over each other, like I think they did a great job. Thank god for lesser hold. He finally kicked off a republican debate by asking directly about donald trump and what each can, it would say, tat supporters whose votes that they presumably want and hears what we heard from my from ronnie D donald trump, a lot different guy that he was in twenties.

steve. He owes it to you to beyond this stage and explain why he should get another chance. He should explain why he didn't have mexico pay for the border walk. He should explain why he wrapped up so much dead. He should explain why he didn't drain the swamp and he said rob begins. We're gonna get tired of winning, or we saw last night. I'm sick of reach wilkins losing in florida. I showed how it's done one year ago here we have three including a massive landside right here in miami date county. So what does it for those who didn't watch? The debate that might have been run. Dissent is best moment that now that was literally minute too, Alright, I won. Hey. We complain about debt, Donald trump You know racking up debt, any Tromp was getting weaken the knees I think on ukraine on ukraine up and, as you said, we can't live in the past. We get a look at the future. Vague went on this whole thing. We ve become a party of losers, it's the establishment. He then called on rada mcdaniel too

thine is our incision relent, she's, fair yeah, I mean she's, not done a great job, invited her to come on stage, which would have been a cool moment. He also said that you on must tucker crossing and Joe rogan should be moderating or yeah they here. Hit the moderators. He attacked welter of the media rigged. The last election was a whole fuckin I have he mentioned hunter binds laptop within the first nine months of a debate. Get a christian workers credit. This right it's raving lunatic screaming at her mistakes, and she just smiled at him. If she didn't, he looks so small and he wanted to take the bait so badly and lesser did a great job of showing that these are also the first actual reporters to moderate republican debate. Yeah, I forget who the other moderators they all work for fox, oh yeah, right christie talked about AMOS Putin. Although the world on fire kind of thing, and then he said trumpet, has been the rest of his campaign in jail in courtrooms right right.

Why? Why are we going to nominate someone who who's just trying to stay out of a courtroom with fair points, and then TIM Scott? Who I, if someone gave a tranquilizer to before the debate, was so slow the whole time? All I wanted was like speed him up the whole debate and he slicks he's talked slower than he has in previous debates, was really weird, but anyway he didn't mention trump at all. He pledged to attract independent voters, restore faith, christian values, blah blah blah. I dunno I really tuned out a lot when TIM Scott was talking so here's my question. That was basically the only time that any of the candidates drew any contrast with donald trump again the person who is leading in every single national poll and every single state poll, not by little but by twenty thirty. Forty points. Still what was the strategy? There was their strategy like because I know these people, these people have high priced consultants right. They sit and debate rooms. They do debate prep like what are they thinking as they head into this debate?.

I think what this boils down to is none of them think they're gonna, be president they're not trying to be president. They are not doing anything to ensure they, president. As best I can tell they ve like visiting iowa, new hampshire and spending as little time as possible. Other families didn't. I also share a theory that vivek ramaswamy started running thinking. It would be great advertising for, like aunt, I woke investment, iti epson infinity. Products caught a little bit of fire and that first debate and then slowly been plummeting industrialize. Yet that he's not gonna chance yeah maybe, and he seemed to be trying, but he was mostly. I mean I wrote down a bunch of the text. He mostly spent his time attacking Nikki haley. He of all everyone on that stage. Look like he's auditioning for something else for sure whether it's like up being a pundit, whether it's like a spot and trembling

vision, whatever I'll try something out, and you guys and I think it's a din. Your answer could be very correct here, but I'm wondering if their thinking, ok, the only chance we have is if again trump die. skids convict. Did the pole numbers change whatever and in order to be the next choice, this the second choice of every one of their programme party. I need to maintain my favour. Billy rating, by not attacking donald trump, too much, and also not attacking all the other candidates too much and I wanna be too nasty towards the other candidates, and so with that's why we get the sort of muddled mess. I don't know yeah. I think I think that is correct, but I think that's a less about beating trump in some cases like sure if he were going trump going to jail, is not going to really help them. Since that is likely to happen. after the all the director allocated, but I guess it's like what, if he imagine a conviction in march right and he's already got a bunch of the delegates, but subtle

we advocate a march while the treasure fourth, yes, maybe convicted in April convicted in April, as is his fancy scenario, perhaps we will soon sarka and suddenly the poles really change try it. We saw the in the new york times poll, there's a bunch of republican voters, party voters, who said I would actually vote for Joe Biden if trump gets convicted, and so we see all these polls change and all the republicans are freaking out, and then one of these goofballs is thinking. This is my time. Sure I say yeah I mean there. Yes, I think it is more about me, in achieving their role in whatever comes next in the post, either Donald trump wins

and now you have to adjust and donald trump republican party or twenty twenty or twenty twenty eight and you're gonna need trumps voters so you're trying to play out the string here, land this plain without lighting the rest of your political career on fire physic. like that ship has sailed for dissent is well, I mean kind of those very hyperborean favorability rings overhauling about higher than tromp. In most cases, yeah type approval and he's got a ton of money and he's got a bunch of advisers sitting around him, saying anything can happen. Sir stranger things have happened down from could get her. Tat. You could die whenever, like you could, fire in ireland- have me too. I did come away thinking that descent really was campaigning for something tonight. I think Nicky Hayley is too Chris Kate, Chris Christie's, on a mission which is to attack donald trump and to get himself invited into green rooms from washington to new york. what I do know that america, I would say like what was Chris, you do it like

if you are on that mission like he could have gone after trump a little harder like, I actually think that some of his regular policy answers not agree with him. So much on domestic policy. Lessons when the former like he sounded like the more reasonable republican, which I think is is fine, because that's jackass, that's just who he is, but as like. What are you doing up here? I thought your whole thing was like going after trump I think he'd genuinely regrets not running for president who doesn't twelve and you just gonna run that case ages, as of two thousand and twelve is like this advance against what he would have done. You're the only person there me like vague previewed with the rapporteur that he was going to act was the unhinged act on it. just said is going to have well done. Sir mission accomplished now that one teams- was the only one up there who I kind of wondered if he was gonna drop out of the campaign in at a commercial breaks he's a sort of like as members they lost the go you leaving the goat he was up. Are you he seems like I don't I don't know it was really bad, really bad performance from scotland.

seems like a guy who's, probably fundamentally like a pretty nice person and the world easy and on that stage is horrible and it must be very hard play. Acting with us It was really weird, but it wasn't even like he arrives. Well enough talk about things Scott there weren't that many fireworks between the candidates, except for thee the running. Will they won't they bit between vehicles? Units mickey equate? Here's! Here's where a really gotta eat it. That's the choice we face. Do you want leader from a different generations. Gonna put this country first or do you want?

dick cheney in three inch heels are the first like to say: they're five inch heels and I don't wear them unless you can run at them. The thing is, I wear heels or not for a fashion statement there for ammunition. The more funding for ukraine I'm telling you Putin and president XI are salivating at the thought that someone like that could become president. They would love the guys to top. The ambassador has the floor. You might want to take care of your family first leave. The next generation of americans are using to actually support is propping her up. That's fine! Here's! The truth,

to answer your just scum skull them. Scum and just There was a throwaway line of, I think we're vague He had a little moment in the first of aid. In the second debate, I think almost everyone washing realized. He has repellent personality going after someone's daughter, yeah. Gimme the cut the given the context it was, but Tik tok. There is like a back and forth about whether we should ban tik tok as to tuck sieges, radicalizing, all of our children to become Hamas. So that was the debate and then he said, oh by the way, you're you're tougher until now, but your daughter's on tik tok, sir you vague, it was really It was that he was really bad. He does not like him. She does not like him there, There are a couple of that kind of opposition research based attacks. It frankly did not land like Hayley was attacking dissent, is about sums of chinese plain manufacture. company in florida, like she had

clearly read so deep into the opposition research file that she knew it backwards and forwards. But I guarantee you that no one listening at any clue what she was talking about- a haley attacked a santas by banning fracking that might play a little bit. Anya vivid it's actually about attracting trainees. Businesses to south carolina like sending some welcome message to ambassador, but it was not. Most of those attacks were just kind of confusing, but hey, hey. We genuinely, despite as is vague, which I'm with her, and I don't think it's almost related. What quality by she's had this brutal it I mean that daily dissent is vague. Attacks are interests. It's all, so poorly done. We sat in debate prompts before the recent fewer colombia hits, and so often there so esoteric that the candidate cannot get them out with any contact. You have. No, the eyes is no hearsay and the consultants like do not

leave that stage without delivering this head and they just they, because without a focus group somewhere, they tested it it was the people were like. Oh, we don't like that at all, and then they make the mistake of translating what that focus group said to like a national stage with no contacts rights if they were fighting to scientists and hillyer fighting over a economic divide. meant official scrubbed a website. I've got an idea, MR that has as its it's like everything else. It's a low rent, poorly done, hedges. I make a point about descent. two. He sucks deficit is performance tonight, like he probably at a better performance than he has in other debates like if you can earn points, but like

just the paint by numbers consultant stump speech like every single answer, like I realized technically when you're prepping from someone for a debate and like you're supposed to give the answer is to give the topic sentence first and then your, but it was just so cheap everything is as it so cheesy like. He sounds more like a typical politician than any one else on that stage or Maybe anyone the democratic primary and twenty twenty or anyone one I've heard in a long time. He is a poor imitation of a typical polish yeah it's like a character with a poor imitation of trump, any more isn't poor imitation of any kind of politician from it yet is it. It is embarrassing. a liberation the from here to hear. I saw embarrassed- I'm not in it for you, your money for me a minute for you, it's just into his own logic that you keep saying that I'll take the hits I'll take this

an arrow lies hits. What are you talking about really terrible? So the first full hour of the debate was foreign policy issues. Was gaza, IRAN, ukraine, china, venezuela and just a full twenty minutes of discussion about boats, ya, think They tell us work. What we learn from neo, con bc, thou work, When you write it down on BBC, NEO can be seeing again missing. nea particular things eating some guy jointly in the plane who told you how to get that hated. You know so are good printed NBC. The liberal media

I spent a good twenty five. Thirty minutes, maybe an hour trying to push every canada on the stage into the most hawkish position possible on a whole bunch issues. We talked about the use of military force against iran in retaliation for iranian proxy groups. We talked about restoring sanctions on Venezuela, attacking the current Biden policy ron de santis, his policy, where he says he's going to send us special forces into mexico to attack cartels. Making sentinel and hugh hewetts question to him was not hey. You realize that starting a war with mexico right or like what's the legal basis for doing that, Ron, or are you worried about the mexican military responding question mark knows Many. How often, what does it look like and then run his aunt says we're gonna Damn stone, cold dead, ok face in there in the face, and then for serious man you, he would ask the ultimate foe, serious person question, which is

How many navy ships are you going to build like these If every candidate got that question three hundred and thirty nine, he did not let them off the hook on that one he followed up and he followed up and he fought up and then votes is. There is there's something we're missing here. Is there a background? The chinese navy is building a lot of boats. That's the whole China hearts tales about gap is about an app and it's silly bees service, silly debate, because there's these ship killing missiles that kind of that whenever this is boring and boring, both of you have lost, and I ask mrs Alvarez: major savings are made in that. I try to watch this debate. Understanding and I couldn't so. This is why I am land you here in this show right here and then our chinese friends or talking about banning tiktok, which we discussed earlier and then surely catch that segment. They went to commercial and we also axiomatic targets those laws are as I go. There is like tik, tok, grandmothers and a couple. a young woman who started a restaurant family, yet this is when I,

now. I remember this is when I thought crisscross do as being responsible, because they were all competing to see who can be them. Was blood thirsty, yes about, like I tell bebe Netanyahu alike finnish vanished them flash than an energy they like to tell you who could be the toughest there than who could be the toughest on raw and who could be the toughest on china and like chrissy, was definitely republican, tough like if he was debating some Democrats. We all have some critiques, but he didn't it. I was happy that he did not go. John vivek, ramaswamy swami, said I would tell benin yoda smoke those terrorists on the southern border, I'll be smoking terrorists on our southern border and then he was like, but we need to in these endless wars in iraq and afghanistan, dread really tried to smoke em. If you got him and then written in tim, Scott was talking about blood dripping from obama and Biden's hands. He said he talked about blood a couple of times to echo weird for them. It's So there were the section on the economy where the only policy solution they had for inflation is to drill more. In fact, more than was basically

even though we are like at the we currently producing more energy than ever before, most of them want to raise the such security retirement age notice We met there and then they finally get around to a discussion on last night's election result in abortion. They all tried to avoid answering whether they support and national ban, with the exception of TIM Scott, he advocated for national ban. He played my Hence my pants. Wasn't there? Would you guys think of all the answers around abortion in life via last night's election results. Won't do it like most of them were trying to avoid coming out in favour of the national borders? Then, because they know it's horrendous politics, I mean, I guess. Reduced answers is already completely on the record about a six week, abortion dance.

In florida? But then I believe it was vague or no, it was a tim scott challenge, Nikki, haley and and rhonda santas. On a fifteen week, ban and haley ended up saying I would support anything that would pass yeah but she's like let's be this. She likes to use the sign like, let's be honest with the american people, but I don't think we we whatever we have. votes in the senate for she's, a yellow, buster believer Agus. I remember watching her seen in town hall with jake tapir awhile back and she definitely struck more reasonable sounding moderate sounding position on abortion. But I felt like she undid it and one second there. By saying I would support anything that past. Maybe she said that before, but the context here was clearly a fifteen week, abortion ban, if I were running a campaign against her. Let's say if I were Joe Biden, I would use that clip as my evidence that have She'll put in place a national, been yes, she said it before it's very wisely. I think she's never been put on the spot like that on trying cause she's done.

Like I'll sign, whatever comes to me kind of thing, but obviously TIM Scott pushed her on it, yet and you know because she wanted to just get away with her initial answer, which was like I have. I don't judge people who are pro choice. I hope people don't judge me who are pro life. I think we need to find common grumble, but then it's like a yeah, but if you've got a national you'd signage like I'll sign, whatever comes to me, but what she did first as she turned into a punch correspondence like well they're. Only forty five full life senators, kinda half ass is their argument. Is it's a stupid conversation because it could? It will never come to my desk, which is very weaselly. Don't get me wrong and then and then makes like. speaking as a man and I've been told, the men had trouble. Speaking about this, I wanna dance around the issue for the next forty five seconds and not actually answer your question. As far as I can see, the higgledy mary have not had trouble talking about a week. the problem. He was like you like he's like a whirlwind gather men and women while another hour rick. I do think that Nicky Haley's answer about now

judging people who, on the other side of the issue and not pushing people, is the sword rhetoric that republicans could adopt yes to see down the edges. Someone someone, I think, as seen from the results of the election like, but earlier there are real limits to that, but that's the first time is actually tried out different messaging. That is trying to be more accepting it, france, and there was a long time not all of it was great. Where democrats were constantly re, framing darling strictly in the nineties with brooklyn, around making our position on abortion seem more appealing yet through a series of anti abortion voters who would otherwise support democrats. There are a lot of catholic voters in pennsylvania that can lose votes, Clinton got and now you're, seeing the politics have shifted, republicans trying to do the opposite, and I think that for dissenters to it, it wasn't gonna work too well, because he obviously signed a six week ban and he's trying. He was trying to do tonight. The old,

Some states are doing things differently and it's bottom up approach right. I mean that he said the word referenda a bunch of times so many times Chris Christie's like it should be decided by the state's clean answer got it vague. Does the how much ass an answer. Does a man and not answer question elite? Nikki haley enters the answer. As a human being, she says my husband was adopted. I had trouble getting pregnancy, so I understand that these are sensitive issues now, listen as as someone who comes from a family where you've had struggles getting pregnant. That would lead me to ah allow people to have the freedom to make these voices themselves, but she went a different direction with it. So I be a diet like human answered in the start, horrible a policy outcome, but I still think better than tim, Scott or Vache, probably or rhonda santas will, and I also think that there was a point where language around this was important that point was long before dobbs and now Dobbs has made it so that like- and this is where Nicky hayley ran into trouble- is like you're, either for the national

ban or you're. Not I don't care what your languages. I don't care. How accepting you are I don't care whatever else you either want to ban abortion or you want to make abortion available and that's really an and voters get that that's what we saw and tuesday night absolutely and if the Healy were to ever actually becoming a threat. It becomes a proclamation eventually get really pressure jews under no pressure now has no evangel Leader cares what she says, because she that transition implemented policies now so than they're closing statements which why do they do closing, say they were all boring, except the vague, really went off He ended by saying we must end this farce. The Joe Biden is going to be the democratic nominee he needs to step aside and his candidacy is a puppet for the managerial class and let Michelle Obama or anyone else. Where was going to do it run and it's like a very it was wild people

think it's a very it's like a it's, a very cute. One thing that makes that Joe Biden's, just like a puppet is going to step aside and they're, going to send out, send out michelle obama or whoever else it's a real yeah he's just sort of like walking twitter reply guy. He calmly replied to my tweets and I really he had this nice man. What have you read, then? I tweeted I didn't realize on the heels thing that he had said, and we have to have one page? I did so I said, was his attack about I dictating cheney, three inches about haley or the santas thinking. I was making a pretty clever to scientists a lot earlier in the year and those to do any responded both now, obviously, firstly, it was not. It was never make himself says it was in the debate by unaware easy debate, also accused Biden. I guess we're gonna

dates of quote celebrating a nazi in its ranks, a comedian and cargo pants zalewski in the context of talking about new cranny again, if you calling a jewish president, ukraine, nazi, really that's just the rest, shockingly weird thing, so that ended meanwhile elsewhere in florida, Donald trump held a rally, because why the hell would he be at that debate In here is some of trump speech. We haven't heard this clip yet so excited We have em coming in from jails from all of the play is that you wouldn't believe mental institutions by people said. Please don't use the term. Insane asylum that silence of, though I am right, silence of the lab hannibal lecter nobody ever heard of the wonderful hannibal lecter we gotta coming into this country. Now you do a good job he searched that's the guy, that's winning by a lot for you probably going to be the nominee.

I can, in fact, both of its impact that guy is up in five or six weeks. Dates for the new york times the trump team put out a statement saying something like when president trump was in florida having a street named for him. Governor ron de Santis was being paved over at the debate, which I thought the sonny was written, but the outer it so well, that's all we got to vegas. We are well advised you aren't. We had a great election in a terrible debate, terrible debate where we came ass for much more than that and term skipping, the next one and two given that you announced tonight, so there we go we're not going anywhere, but a debate, all them until the fall, but ask if it with us but other to handle certain errors com. in their largest screaming. I, that's our show will be in new Orleans Friday night, and then you guys we're all here that show on Monday. So we'll talk in its we like us,

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