We're excited to announce inside twenty twenty four hour. New monthly pie cast serious available exclusively for friends of the flood subscribers. We typically talk about campaigns through the lens of news. as twenty twenty four is a chance to hear us go deeper on specific campaign events, we tell some sort will bring on a rotating cast of white house alumni and lock the doors until they spill on what really goes on behind the scenes of a presidential campaign. Everything from debate, prep and convention speeches to campaign ads, in botched media appearances to get access insights, one in twenty four join our community over it friends of the pot signing up a cricket dotcom. Last friends, parts even there is brought you buy american fiction, see the most audacious heartwarming comedy the sheer Jeffrey right. Sars is monk and author who right

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What went upon save america, ambient pfeiffer, I'm Tommy bitter john, is after the next couple of weeks, because on December twenty second tat If ever I was born, everyone is happy healthy amazon for christmas by if the reports Charlie, is enthusiastically embracing his role as a big brother and LEO is adjusting to yet another child invading his house. That is true. I can confirm that a lot happen, or we were off a couple weeks, believe it or not the twins, twenty four election is here: the Biden campaign is ramping up. Their attacks on trump trump is desperate crying to stay on the ballot in two key states and later on embassy news election analysed steve cornet. He will join me to break down the aisle. as in the upcoming primers tommy you're, actually

on the ground in our right now doing some reporting for a special many serious that is going air on this feed next week tells what like an iowa in which are working on yeah was open. A couple days. Some folks might remember, I can twenty twenty. I did id series on the iowa caucuses on the democratic side spent some time with some organizers went to a bunch of events. I got to talk to a bunch of candidates explained how the caucus process worked, and it was very fine, we're doing a smaller version of that this year. Where were digging into the republican carcasses. We're talking about frankly like what are we doing here, The question is there really a race desire will really matter this year is trump running away with it and so went to a bunch of events. Yesterday we saw a vague, we saw, santas were going to try to see trump and those episodes will start to appear in the pod. Save america feed on january, ten

such a map, but first every four years of political media circus turns its eyes to one particular state. So now the ilo congress has come on fast right around the corner. We are entering the final stretch. Their republican candidates will be flooding that state making their final page to voters, and that includes the front runner in this race. Donald trump dominated the poles. Could thirty points ahead of his nearest rivals? Reminder that, of course, Donald. Lost, iowa ted cruz back in two thousand and sixteen one of the rest of the field, still hoping for a breakthrough. Florida governor ron, Desantis, has bet big on iowa he's visited all ninety nine counties in the state, even holding a new year's eve rally, but he's been losing ground to former. U n, ambassador Nikki haley, that's right. The iowa caucuses are less than two weeks away. According to the five thirty eight average of iowa polls trump is buffy two percent in leading his rivals by more than thirty points. Tommy you a man on the ground in iowa wish. You were in the moon right now, sir em. tell me what you would do in the back it back in iowa the place where you put it.

We're really took off her. My political personality was born, so we go in on tuesday, we went to a bunch of events yesterday, we saw Radice santas, vague rama, swami twice and dan asia happens and we went to one of his events. This man has been shot out of again and so I'd love to tell you that everything we ve been doing here I'm so glad you got to go to the ASA hutchinson event. I feel like that. Opportunity is going to go away pretty quickly, and it's also, I think, breaking his rib on the spot. Listening to his podcast, the asa Hutchinson still running for president, that was, the primary reaction to the photo I tweeted of his event. It's like the luck his He seems very nice establishing very nice. The event was small- that it was a card to be mean about it? I think they're, twenty people there and fifteen of them were students from california on a class underclass. So you know, I don't think he's gonna have a surprise upset, but we can get into it more that later here are use. Based on what you see, these advances are, I think, stick out to you and you see any sign.

of momentum for anyone who we are, what what what are you saying so also to walk either we did so we went to he ran dissent is wednesday morning in Dallas county which, as you know, a western suburb, the county a little bit west of the des moines area. It was a typical town hall meeting with reduced antecedent, thereby like sixty people there, which you know ten, a m on a wednesday, isn't bad, but it's also not great The most interesting moment was this voter who press ron de santis on why he wasn't going after trump hard enough. I think we actually have a clip of that that we could play for you guys and one also now he's. You know what do you mean by going directly after your your mind, going up or down for softball What do you think? So we are working

all. The difference is gonna drive I think that the is that I, that the narrative is this. What the media wants is It's they want republican candidates, just kind of like smear the person. That is not how I want I'm not going okay, so so that was the first forty five seconds of what turned into like a quiet. I exchanged again, then this is a man named Chris garcia, older guy. I was you know, moving around with a walker who supports ron Desantis, he like he he likes to run to sanders. He wants to for him, he intends to caucus for me, wants to both from the general election gives. You didn't think trump can win, but, as you heard there it is his response to, like. I think, a pretty fair observation or question was to get me about it like a tin seem didn't, go very well it very I was struck by just held defence, if you as is clearly this is a question. He gets

donors and others. Yet all the time like with like brimming over with frustration about it, it just on top general awkward see we odious personalities, really isn't exactly how what sort of message you would want to be closing with at the carcasses right, yeah attacking our voters. my take away from going to a dissenters event was dead. The guy you see tv. Is the guy you see in person. He is bad. Added interacting with human beings. Some ask him a question. He said. What's your name, she said I'm glory I'm the one who praise for? U history affection was like well good and then use like play. forward with whatever talking point one to say he he see this step on his own applause lines, all the time he'll say some shitty thing about you now: protecting women sports or whatever and the audience unfortunately gets into it and he just steps, the ones are surprising hit was. Dissent is criticized trump for coming out in support of.

New, f b, I building in washington d c, which some people were surprisingly exercised about, but but nothing at that event made me think that there was some growing sense of momentum for rhondda santas. Why, where people access what the fbi building I dont know. I think they'd been condition to hate the fbi, and it is always very weird. They say like trump waited on this parochial matter about where this building should be, whether its deasey virginia maryland. There I mean- I, I guess it's the contacts here is that a wash unopposed pull out this morning shows that five percent of republicans think the fbi was involved in making general six, so maybe that's why they set about it: yeah, yeah I think that's writing they're hearing from all of these candidates that bf the eyes you know entrapping trump or entrapping trapping january six protesters have is a lot of lot of skepticism of government. now you also. If I understand your instrument stories correctly, you got on view Ex campaign both sides to talk to him, I did- I did so hard tat awful. How does that happen or others?

personal, shouted civics, press team or camping I just clip that clip that social team, like they're just you know it is like they are just super nice and helpful and responsive and, frankly, that's a huge contrast to the other campaigns like de santis. His folks won't write us back, Haley's folks right as back is the hatches. Its votes are great, surprisingly, no surprise, but trump won't credentials for events are. Let us endeavour to think we, the trumps people, what led us into a coffee with Eric trump. It's important So you think part of the challenge could be that you work for a company called crooked media, yeah yeah ice. In hindsight that wasn't good. Arguably obama campaign in somewhat apply for credentials with a right wing propaganda machine. We will we allow them in that in that sort of my point, two thousand seven merely would have said it get out of here. You go fuck yourself, cricket media, but so here I take away from the vague we wanted. you have as events, we saw him into DES and then we saw him in newton iowa which Daniel

number of newton iowa was the place where there was a maytag plant that got shut down yeah and it became kind of the poster child for talking about trade policy and nafta and everything so my take away was vague, is far less of action in the room with voters than he is on television or at debates. You know he is jeddak, but he's not combative. He is doing an unbelievable number of events, so people who talk about doing this gradually remember this in the full grassland. The photographs. Are you going to all? Ninety nine counties is the folk oh yea yea. I thought I was thinking for ginsburg in my head. Oh yeah, sunday shows and under one day yeah there were were sort of regurgitating terrible, I d c terms of art, but so that they has done the full gradually twice which since he's gone to all ninety nine counties. Twice his staff told me that he will do or vague actually said this he'll do something like three hundred and thirty events by the time the caucuses are over.

which is just like. I think more than all of his opponents combined he's travelling around with his wife and kids, which do you know what human has anyone. I think he is better and interacting with voters and ron de santis. Like he's smart feels like a normal person. He says thank you and people compliment him, he's really nice to their kids. I All of that sound three basic, but when you go from IRAN, dissenters event to evade crop swept me if you notice. contrast you really do and The domain of that was like a hundred people in the middle of the day. It was served not that interesting. yeah. They. Let us jump on his tour bus fry de moyne to newton iowa in spend some time interview him were you worried you are being kidnapped? I was worried There was a chance I might get let out onto the site of the highway. Swept point have, with their had

we in the EU. I don't know how much time or lesser suspend on twitter. You don't you spend less time, but I would say of the time you spend much of it is just attacking vague. I shouldn't we have a reef clip of my conversation with a vague where I was trying to press him on his comment. That january six was an inside job. Haven't you right to question legs tat about water, gay or the iraq war times there. Of course goes that's an exciting bush. Well, I don't know what you're asking was based on lies that I still doesn't mean that thousands of people tracy the capital of the fbi, the lines I see the city I feel like going so far as our a great now listen! I like the conversation belts we With my stuff we got its foreign policy. Software frankly is a lot more interesting to talk to you, and then we got into some of the kind of conspiracy real sounding thinks he's been tweeting itself, but the vote I've been. The interview was different, like on edge he's very intense. I could tell you

seemed annoyed, maybe that his staff had booked this cause. He said something like he if you think he's totally like I'm sure your podcast is listened to by lots of iowa caucus goers. I was like oh yeah totally and actually he the name checks me in the show at his newton event, and he was like it from the crowd he's like. What's your what you show called again like positive, yes, it's when you had to speak in the show yeah speak because the event does exist right about the america. Yes, I hate it, but like look he's not he was prepared go to war with me ray, I think if I wanted to screaming bachelor least expected that that was not my goal. I wanted to like We stand the guy it's hard to like shit at someone on their from their campaign bus with their kids. There might take away from the conversation and from watching him. Is that view team. They obviously want to get votes from traditional cocky scars. There. Also going after this demographic of people, they just seem to destroy

government that are more in the like our f k, junior Joe, again in for wars worlds and that's interesting strategically is maybe those people aren't showing up in pause, but I don't know that's gonna aid you Judah fifty percent and the the thing I was pressing him on there was. He keeps saying the january sixth, I wasn't say job. He keeps saying they can airports aren't gonna. Let tramper Biden get to the finish line tweeting by Geoffrey Epstein, so I was just trying to get him to help me understand his world view, because all of it said backdrops, it say the word truth on them and truth is different than anti censorship. Right, like Are you if you want to have Alex jones on your show? He had Alex Jones on his podcast evicted. If you want to have that conversation to make a point about not censoring anyone in freedom of speech, that's fine but Alex jones, is not someone who is known for speaking the truth. So try

to sort that out with him, but basically just talked over me. Whenever I push back that's at the seams about right. Let's take a step back a little bit late and look think about what's going to happen on january, fifteenth on caucus night Maybe it's worth noting that our words only forty of the twelve hundred or so delegates you need to become the republican nominating and therefore winning and getting all those delegates is often less important than simply just beating expectations. What do you think haley dissenters are vacant need to do to build some momentum or have somebody that they can attribute a success while it's funny it's like there's what they think. to do and what they probably needs to do another different things. Right, I mean they all think they need to accede expectations, which is a nebulous way that all of us who have ever worked on a on a campaign, especially in iowa, define success so far vague. The last one register Paul had him at about five percent thousand.

ago, if he can bring in some of those sort of off the radar screen folks and turn them out and double that number and get ten percent. That could surprise people that could give them a little bounce rate, and the same is true for dissenters of the good nineteen percent in the register poll. A trumpet fifty one percent in that poll, by the way, if he can cut that margin to like fifty thirty Maybe that helps to sensitive is going hard and I would do he's got all ninety nine counties. Tell me what down at me. I think hayley seems to be more focused on new Hampshire he's coming back. I work for a couple events and this up. Americans for prosperity pack says that they're not gonna rev up some ground game field operation for her for the last three weeks, but I'm I'm very sceptical. That that will be effective, yeah it she seems haley. I talk about a little bit with, in my conversation with Steve carnegie, which you will hear after this. highly seems a little betwixt and between strategy. Wise

On one hand, there is an argue, and part of the problem is that most of our money is coming through a superpower by which he has only limited influence over. and more actually multiple super backs. There is an argument or trying to take out the scientists in I was so she could be somehow be to send us and whether basically tied in the average five thirty eight average right now and you come in into tromp, that would be the expectations give her. Some additional momentum going into new hampshire, does it is I don't really know what happens unless he somehow the in the? are all wrong. They have shifted dramatically since the demurrer register poll ready for the holidays, He is somehow north of thirty trumpets, bled in windows this gains a voter he usually gaining at from tromp, not someone else, because he hears these can choice of most trump voters, so son I guess it really close and just shocks the world by losing by

fifteen as opposed to thirty. Maybe that gives them something he just He is a lot like to use in an analogy that is a little unfortunate close to your heart, which is He is a little like John edwards in two thousand and four, as even if he does well in iowa, he doesn't have a next. He does. He does not have a he's, not a straw, he's a strong in new Hampshire. So it's hard to. Momentum out of iowa, go to a state where you're pretty weak and maintain that momentum heading two, the next eight after because you have a we ve driven Hampshire than you have a month between new entrants. After right in that is So if you do not have a have, you cannot get us. The downside of new Hampshire, you can't really no caves ever really made it to south carolina. That way, right where you you fail in south carolina to other than by Joe Biden is that is accepted. That girl who got no bounds out of ireland. No doubts out of the hampshire be a little bounds of the nevada caucus, and then I and that, obviously, once after

was the nominee like sixteen seconds later. Yet that's exaggerate. Gaming truck driver went back to iowa he's doing a bunch of big events over the next few days, including a couple of fun ones. On january six, who isn't excited for that anniversary celebration? I mean it's a I've been on the after a couple of days. All this is like anecdotal information, but do we see some groundswell of support for de santis or vivek? Absolutely not, and- and I'm with you- I mean, I think, if dissenters gets. Third, even forth in iowa, like everyone staff is going to tell him. You needs drop out you to endorse drum edi, to preserve your political future, such as it is. I do think you're right that Hayley as a path of a limited, an likely one, but as a path. I both to dwell new hampshire in south carolina vague. said something to me. Like you know, I'm sick, and in this for the long haul I made you think it's a question of to what his goal is here. The Taking him literally version of it? Is he thing, that there is some chance that trump gets arrested and

they had taken off the ballot unilaterally saying these things, and maybe then he emerges The more cynical view of his future is: is used this entire campaign as a way to old dame I d and a basis support in these conservative circles, which could then vault him to some future. whether it's in the administration or being you now the next sort of conservative. media darling, then shapiro type, who knows all of them are saying. We need to just succeed expectations and I will take on trump, but if trump, wins. I were, he will have beat his performance and twenty sixteen when he lost it. Had crews and he's got eight days in new Hampshire, so I'm is sceptical as you are, that there's really too the catch up to an especially when you consider that the a lot of the super tuesday states had been tweaked so that if someone gets you know fifty percent or more of the vote, it's basically winner take all and trump can just

like this thing up super fast, so while Iowa were maybe looking good for tromp he's got some other problems, we made in colorado where the state officials are attempting to remove him from the presidential ballot citing section three of the fourteenth amendment, which is also known as the insurrection clause trump has appealed both those decisions, which are almost certainly be in front of the supreme court before long tommy. Neither of us are qualified to weigh on the constitutional merits of the question, although you should feel free to do so. If you would like. But what do you think the politics? This is help her her tromp. What do you make of the whole idea of kicking trump off the ballot I think in the primary it also certainly helps him that we're having this conversation, because it's just like another part of his case that the system is rigged in everyone's trying to go after him, and it means- everyone competing against him gets asked this question and that becomes their headline of the day. Vague out their leading the charge saying that heave of ache will pull himself off. colorado ballot if trump is pulled out fritz oath, that's kind of funny way to compete with someone,

I was on the times as worrying does now formal challenges, the trumps candidacy and at least thirty three states. You know my fear is that we see some red states strategy. The same thing to Biden, get him thrown off about for some trumped up reason, so and I looked like a year ago- dan, I probably would have thought that the indictments an issue like this would be good fodder for all of these republican opponents to trumped to make an like debility argument against him, but so far the opposite has has been the case. So we'll see what the supreme court does here. I don't know that the politics matter that much beyond the primary that, like you, are absolutely correct, that the dynamic that has existed throughout this primary repeated itself here which is something someone does something to trump some quarterboat unfriendly, anti mega entity district attorney the department of justice a democratically Various stayed, a liberal court doesn't mean a trump, the Magda media machine rally suez defence every candidate

Elvis. Opponents are asked. What do you think about this? In iran? Tromp man's, so it's or you end up in all kinds of situations where his opponents are amplifying his message. It's an opportunity cost for his opponents, because they're not talking about it now. None of them are deft enough to actually use this to their advantage by saying using this as a ample of the chaos that surrounds tromp? It's an argument for maybe why he's not our best bet actually be Biden threat kessler, just one dimensional checkers players, but that was It's up there in the long run, we're talking about tuesday the supreme court court's away in here other states may do it by it this isn't how and hardly anyone making this argument, but this is not how we're gonna beach right is not on. even even if it with them. On onest like I can't speak of the constitution, the other. But if a simple question is people engage

Insurrection cannot run for president, while guess what donald trump did and guess what he's trying to do? You know under that view of it, yet he probably should not be on the ballot anywhere in their multiple rees ways in which he could have been stopped from being on the ballot dating back to mitigate the Republicans, refusing to convicted millisecond, impeachment form, engineering and insurrection. By this in terms of the general election he's going to be. Maybe he just ends up not on the colorado ballot, maybe not on the main ballot may be another place in that we'll probably have some consequences for the for down ballot. Republicans there, if trump is not pulling voters out like if I was at a like, laura and bogart or some other repub in colorado, I'd be pretty nervous about my turn out without jump on the ballot, but it's all sort of I think small potatoes related politically mobile here is related to the larger force in certain decide this yeah me to the extent that any of these candidates are making a contrast with trump like you're. Seeing some specifics, I think Haley is out with an ad today about a gas tax critique of trump or something like that,

No it's at its trump attack on highly for the guidelines are told they looked. Cheese cheat hayley attacks him about, like the national debt, write the law like, though, and point out that the wild didn't get finished and mexico didn't pay for it, but they don't really make an argument besides or alive. to the fact that maybe you want someone younger. Maybe you want someone without the baggage and even ride a santas, as well as a voter begging him to make that case, because that's what that voter believes kind of whiffs on the opportune. So say I mean I imagine us. Let us help him one or thing on trump. He told me the hebron and the new york times he's going to spend a lotta time in the coming weeks at his various trials and even plans to testify in the jean Carroll, deaf and defamation case. Now, let's presume he's not, actually going to testify uses. it has been a retrial, he never does. But what do you think about tromp taking the time during this critical period in the primary and sitting in a court room again all across the country? I mean

sort of feel like did. The strategy is, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. like, while my numbers are only going up. His is political ethos seems to be no matter. What be the centre of attention? Be. The story and there's reports. I think it was introduced during the times that trump in his aids love, the oj chase style attention that his dry to the court room got they know their republican primary voters have rallied around him when he was prosecuted and that his opponents of time themselves up in knots and refuse to exploit what seemed like a very easy advantage for them. You eve like Rhonda santa's. I think over the christmas break was whining that he wished truck, never forgot indicted, which is an incredible thing to say about your political opponent.

as I have said, that is one of them, the metaphor of republican politics in the in this current, our right there Yannick what a thing to wine about. Yet we also trump trying to argue that, because the Senate didn't convict him in his impeachment case, he is now immune to prosecution, which is an interesting rather novel, evil art legal argument self, the long term. The trump folks know that a conviction would be real problem for him. In the general election they ve seen the same numbers. We have they'll try to prevent them happening anyway. They can, but I think until then we're just going to message this and try to win these sort of like day to day pr fights in any way possible and if the the easiest way to do that is from a courtroom, I guess So be it! I'm consider me a sceptical as you are, that damn that he will ever testify the army, there would be a truly insane choice given justs how he speaks. If you do, I look like a general rules alone. Do not let him be under oath at any point, I have a sort of,

I agree that on margins. This is probably helpful in the primary it will suck up attention. It'll do have that dynamic. We just talk about about is forcing discussion of these forces Lena these elite liberal forces trying to take down tromp because he's a threat to the system, which is good for him and republican politics and may be good for him with even a virus? What the voters and we really would like to, but we would be comfortable with by their his, like my take on donald trumps rise in the polls. Is that he is six rising in twenty twenty four for the exact opposite reasons he rose and twice extent. He wasn't one sixteen by dominating attention. Everything was about europe. He became our national culture you couldn't. He was on tv. All the time he was atomic ever conversation, it was time, is up culture conversation. It was a the dominant story, twenty four he's actually risen in my view, because he's not the center of attention he's not on twitter. He's not really on t v that much as long as tv coverage of trump.

People are paying attention to news and they're, not most people. People always think this is crazy. When we say this, but most people have no idea that trump isn't about a month from being the republican nominee, I've got a blow away, a large swathes of america, india, and so he is deciding to high wait. His greatest vulnerability is not. The e jean carroll trial is an example of just what a disgusting human being. He is, but you know talking bout the jewellery six case and all of those things he's shining a light on his greatest general action. Boner at the exact moment when voters are beginning to pay attention, and that could be a mistake in the long run right until they frumps not known long term thinker, but I do think he is that there are other real risk in what he's doing, for only what our likely be marginal gains in a primary, but that he is winning by thirty five points. Right, No, I think that's right, I'm you think it's the argument that probably works very well for that

is hey. Remember when tromp was in office, the tweets were annoying, but gas prices were low and I think that's kind of like simple but effective, but if you it. Can people relive every moment of impeach man or january six, sir. All these serve really dark events that were part of the trump first term. I dont I'm with you that I don't that helps you in a general elections. This year was wanted by better help. What are some things you want to keep the same about yourself or your life twenty twenty four, and neither at the tough. When everything is perfect, I would want- kinda thing where you already crushing it advocates. I think what do you think, I agree that around the new year we get obsessed with how to change ourselves instead of just expanding on what we are already doing right, maybe you, finally as one part of your space and you want to tackle another or maybe you're, taking supplements every morning like tommy

and now you want to actually eat breakfast to sleep like love, it vibes helpful therapy, helps nice therapy. Helps you find your strength, so you can ditch the extreme resolutions and make changes that really stick if you're thinking of starting therapy, give better help a try. It's entirely online, designed to be convenient, flexible and suited to your schedule just fill out a brief questionnaire to get match with a licensed therapist and switch therapists any time for no additional charge. Celebrate the progress. You've already made visit better health dot com, slash p s a today to get ten percent off your first month. That's better help ici LP! dot com, flash p s dan pfeiffer, and I'm here to talk to you about my brand new subscription exclusive series, the poor countries, porthos where's, the real political junkies amongst the need for in depth, analysis of the biggest national post. The way voter transit and titus down ballot races. That's all thus our anxieties together and hopefully will all come away feeling better knowing whether now, if I may have the panic, but you episodes twice a month for friends of the pod subscribers is it crooked dot com slash

France to learn more inside of access. it's a classic holiday conundrum. What do you get for the person who has everything, including a bottomless pit in their stomach about the upcoming presidential election? and also an air friar. That's good this year there's a book, for that is democracy, or else is a useful and illustrated step by step guide to saving american democracy written me John love, it and tommy veto, or with our friends, following is the perfect gift for your favorite cricket fan or that lib curious love one or, if you're, not, curious, maybe you're a moderate, maybe we're still engaged now be. maybe you're, just a right winger who wants to read the book and then it to marcus. Maybe that's your king, that's cool too big.

twenty. Twenty four is all that stands between us and the next insurrection and the holidays are all that stand between us in two thousand and twenty four visit crooked dot com, slash books to pre order, democracy, your health, speaking of twenty twenty four present a bite kicking off the new year by reputable campaign, with a focus on the threat to our process to democracy on friday he's giving a speech in valley forge pennsylvania, to mark the third anniversary of the january six insurrection and on monday by as the charleston to speak at of historically black church were nine parishioners were killed by a white supremacist in twenty fifteen, they also want. This ad I made you preservation american democracy, the central issue, my presence, I believe free and fair elections and the right devote fairly and have your vote counting

it's dangerous having an american version. Extremist movement does not share the basic beliefs of our democracy. All of us are being asked right now. What will we do to maintain our democracy histories watch the world's watch most afford our children and grandchildren hold us responsible, what do you think of the by keeping a tragic kissing so much attention on january, sex and the threat to democracy, as opposed to issues like inflation in the economy of the border, that sort of stuff. Now my god on this. As you know, we learned at the white house stand like choosing your message of the day. Is the easy part getting a covered? Is the really hard part? So the white ass, a smart. They now that everyone is gonna, be focused on the january six anniversary,

They know that the Washington post has had a poll out the found. Fifty five percent of americans believe that storming the capitol was quote an attack on democracy. That should not be forgotten, and that includes a majority of independents who feel that way. So I do think it's smart to give a big speech that day, it's smart to fold it into a broader narrative about democracy. I'm sure they anticipate that trump will do or say something stupid or crazy. at one of his events that will help you know sir adsum filled their fire and I'd like I don't know if they announced how much or if any money is behind that ad, but you know you put out an ad as a press release half the time, so it could just be that I think it's smart to package a solid, I think that's right. It would be so. Someone naive to think that this is the full we're here we are here in january? Fourth, getting the full view Joe Biden. Gonna run against donald trump. You re not yet the nominee and war democracy and for day part the campaign, absolutely

january, the anniversary of general six. The exact right time to highlight that message gives you might get a cupboard. Away and your point on the ad, whether where in IRAN, where to run, I dull, but if they put out that information I dunno, but they gave sclusively the morning Joe this morning, so at least it was in a bunch colonel play on the cable channel. All and probably for the audience of that is just by supporters. It is essential that he's out there fighting- and I think is probably even more important than white. He says. Ah debt As on general section, I should note actually the the speech was spoken: on saturday, which is the universal generous ex, but there is apparently a blizzard coming to These questions are they moved it up a day, so they can make sure they actually got to give a speech which is at others just how party get your message covered in the white house just sometimes even whether gets in the way, rather with the blizzard a couple years ago, can save us a lot of trouble that's it?

that is you. Do you think you are going to stop? Gives us no, sir Simon? Maybe their flights would know whether other private jets are they flew in these economically anxious people? That's right. I do think that Joe Biden fighting is good, but just image of him. He gave a very good speech on the one you're anniversary of january sex that was very powerful, did from the capital, something like that. Just shows energy and vigour and a you know that taking on this very real threat, is good politics for him cider. If this is that this is the right thing to do. The meat he's not gonna talk about inflation and that his accomplishments and all the other things we can be found to this, but I guess the question What else do you think by needs to be doing on top of this cnn reports as going to shocked by this congressional democrats, one has to spend more time laying out a second term agenda. We need them. balances here, one top house aid, told cnn: what's our bumper sticker, Our making amerika great again die like, of course,

Joe Biden use, lad a vision for israel lack I dont know that it has to happen urgently well you're, not going to set out a pdf and be like here. It is on january eighth years, argued use. Our real message I mean did you would have better sense. this. In memory of it, then I would for the real acts, because you were working on that and I was time embassy nerd at that point, just like not solving the whole Ben Gunn, a problem, but I I suspected Biden will kick start process during the state of the union, Jonah the coming months. You'll do a series of policy speeches and events, the highlight kind of pieces of the platform things fighting for what you want to do with his second term, what you would do with democratic congress, and then I suspected what that platform in the narrative to be fully backed by his convention speech and annually

hammering away from there. But you know that vision has to include a contrast with your opponent which isn't have yet and if you're talking about these things too early, you won't get a covered. You won't get the attention and old b be a waste of time, so I suspect, or vienna more immediate term there. Thinking about getting back the Democrats, voters that they lost make sure the parties unified that could come from a second term agenda that could come from highlighting the threat from trump. It could come from course correcting on current policy like the handling of Gaza. I imagine it will require a mix of all of it, but yeah I mean those congressional leaders are not wrong, but maybe just a little pre sure yeah I mean yes, of course you need to say something about what you're going to do if you're re elected that mean that that is, that's table, stakes the state of the union and will be for Biden as it was for obama. The first place to begin to lay that out in its is, there will be specific policies involved, and there is even in somebody story is stories there, some idea

previewed, around taxes on stock by them, some additional efforts, protects the informal care which are obviously specific, contrasts against republican economics against trumps, pledged to take to repeal the sba that wall sort of ladder up to the commission's speech, which will be the next biggest audience. The president, why adverb, thou, hopefully they'll be the biggest audience president have been burned, said the union to wet to lay out his vision. The vision is more important than the details of the vision and the details that need to be such a proof points for the kind of president Biden will be in a second term. What's the details of the white paper is not really gonna matter and is gonna matter. I think even less than before because people are just some eve cynical people were when we were trying to break lama reelected or even way. More cynical. Now so of Joe Biden stands up and says: I'm gonna. Do this big huge? the thing for the voters that he most needs to win over they're going to be pretty skeptical that he can get that done this even really about Joe Biden. It's just about a broken political

and then say: you'd along that you'll need a theory of change like what can he do that and looking to get done is a guy with these gonna trifecta without a enough senators to not be bedevil but filibuster, to be hard to sell that to the press, given the Senate map But but yes, you need some things to say: you're you're gonna want because people often have to answer he's. Gonna have to answer questions and canvassers gonna have to answer questions at the door like what does it mean for me What does it mean? Can me can be protecting the progress made in minsk in asia is not repealed. It could mean he will. He will be the bulwark against A the federal abortion ban. The report, a republican congress- wants to pass you all of those things like that, but this issue, The christian democrats always want this in its it matters, but it is not decisive. In my opinion, Yeah Endlich meet part of it is

probably feeling like they're, going on tv and constantly on their back foot and they're, getting asked about his age and they're getting asked what is pulling and they want to talk about what he would do and bring it back the substance and gone off once again, which I appreciate and respect by just think it's something you can do with broader sets of contrasts and ideas and values envision. in versus you know, laying out a full second term agenda, the bind campaign has been getting much more aggressive trump in recent weeks and in a scene report. It said that they often they buy campaign jokes about going quote full hitler for the moment in which they feel they can compare tromp to the now see leader who support we've got to the hitler comparisons by january of twenty four. What What is the old saying the first rule of comparing someone? Hitler's? Don't I think

I think I think that rule is apparently changed, they've been doing it for months and seems fine, I mean, or just to like, be a little more nuanced like it. I do think it's important to talk about the dangers of incitement in political rhetoric. I mean we know that the the great replacement theory, for example, has inspired white nationalists and mass shooters in the: u s in new zealand all over the place. We know that you know language like you are talking about immigrants having tainted blood or dehumanizing language like who rodents in vermin can be precursors to real violence. But I think you have to make sure you make those arguments in a way where you don't sound. Hyperbolic is, I think, you're less convinced, and so you can say you know that's the kind of language that was used by the nazis and explained on tax. But if you say this person is like hitler, I think a lot of folks continue up. Yet that is that that is the hard part with all of these comparisons of trump to authoritarian and dictators and white supremacist is

they are substantively correct or in spiritually correct and what he is pushing for, but it may but if the challenges Donald rumsfeld just president three years ago so when you say down trump's going to be a dictator, people didn't see the right or wrong people is he the original trump presidency as a dictatorship, they may found a lot of problematic about it being overly chaotic it being overly corporatist it being effective in a lot of ways by they didn't think it was a dictatorship? And so you know you're gonna have to make the case in a pretty relentless in specific and easily understood way. If you want to do that, that is mean that the Biden folks can you know, wholesome threads with pictures of trump and and hitler to make a point. We don't like. That's fine, that's not really that's to survive, I baseball, but on the larger argument about trump Authoritarian trump is trumpets: nazi trump is a dictator, its

I think it is a more challenging case to make then allow of us would like it to be yeah. I regret I think you'd have to be specific. You know- and I think this is always gets broken down into a debate about. Are we talking about culture war? We talking. Values. Are we talking about kitchen table issues in the mud, more boring reality is you have to do both and I do think he'll talk about all the things that you know show most motion polls, inflation, healthcare, etc, but I do think he has to make a case about donald trump. His character and reminding people about all the bad parts of his four years in charge that they didn't like that. You know didn't include being a full on fascist, but included being a pretty god awful human being with co leader now, who is a fascist adjacent? The way to put it? I guess there go before the break to big positive americans schedule updates. First, In general sixteenth, we have a new three daily schedule with episode: throbbing tuesdays, wednesdays on fridays.

Let's face it, there's too much going on to cover in just two observes each week that takes overflowed with, as they say, second into the two episode special of on the ground, and I offer tommy's onsite analysis of the geo peacock is and what it means for the pivotal election year ahead, listen to it on the pod, save america feed starting january tenth. When we come back steve react. the. It's a classic holiday can under what do you get for the person who has everything, including the bottomless pit in their stomach about the upcoming presidential election and also an air friar. That's good this year, there's a book for that is democracy or else is a useful and illustrated step by step guide to saving american democracy. Written me John love it and tommy veto, or with our friends following? Is the perfect gift for your favorite cricket fan or that lib curious love one or, if you're, not,

curious, maybe you're a moderate. Maybe we're still engaged now be maybe you're, just a right winger who wants to read the book and then It to mock us. Maybe that's your king, that's cool too big. Twenty twenty four is all that stands between us and the next insurrection and the holidays are all that stand between us in two thousand and twenty four visit crooked dot com, slash books to pre order democracy, your health Dan Pfeiffer and I'm here to talk to you about my brand new subscription exclusive series, the polar customer. Porthos where's, the real political junkies amongst the need for in depth. Analysis of the biggest national paused voter trans and titus down ballot races. That's all thus, our anxieties together and hopefully will all come away feeling better, knowing whether now not it's time to the panic, but you episodes twice a month for friends of the pod subscribers. Is it crooked dot com slash,

france to learn more and sign up for access johnny us now as someone who needs no introduction to political junkies, the man behind the magic wall, NBC national, portable correspondence, deep ronicky, steve welcome to the pot. They showed me good? We are I. We are two weeks we from while we were about to get onto a quick succession of new I'm sure south carolina super tuesday and then basely we tuesday for awhile, is going to be an election night. How are you preparing? Have you been Do you in cardio, or you state, standing in front of a board to train for long period of time? What are you? What are you doing to get ready? when the focus you know right now is is iowa obviously, and just dumb yo have you ever looked at a map of iowa. You got ninety nine counties. They are a lot of them, look geographically just their their squares. They look very similar so

trying to her to make sure I kind of nowhere where they all are, especially where the biggies are. What the I think, the most important thing for our coverage right now is just on the point of comparison that we're going to stress, obviously for ai, for all these republican primaries, as long as they go is just to twenty. Sixteen, the last open republican primary trump's. First time running- and you know how was he doing with certain groups, then how is he doing now? Where has there been growth? Has there been any slippage, and I mean obviously the questionnaire be looking for still is? Is there any room? Is there any scenario where a descent israeli still could could make us a game with him. I know you dig into the data and I will watch your sense of where the re stance in hock I state yeah well I'll, give a good plugin The two are the the pulling partnership that we started this year and I I love. We have a partnership with the des moines register, Ann selzer, who is the you're kind of acknowledging the the astor. This is its hurried to have this.

because I know this is the one everybody waits foreign sort of my cock is eve? Shall release or file numbers so we'll have that you're right before the caucasus? That will give us the best sense of it, but bennett in a bit of a low here in terms of the neo pulling of iowa in new Hampshire for that matter, but our most recent one

Now. Do you know a couple of weeks old, but our most recent one had trump over fifty percent. We had him growing his support. From september to December we met fifty one percent, santas nineteen halley, sixteen in iowa and and yeah that's the last time you had a republican with a lead that big, this close to the caucuses. You gotta go back to george w bush in the two thousand cycle. Bush won iowa fairly comfortably in two thousand. He did get a scare by losing new hampshire to John Mccain, but was basically able to to win south carolina and put that one to bed. So that's the kind of historical comparison I got in my mind and and yeah I think, look trump is obviously favored to win iowa. The question is: does he actually win How big does he win it into somebody, get a second place showing the dumb that allows them to claim a moral victory in some momentum. I think that that's a very important point because- and maybe you can help explain this to our listeners because who's

steve, who may have tuned in paying close attention to politics. Listen to parts of america watching electronized, Steve Carnegie after twin, sixteen after trump one, the ira carcasses not pick republican nominee for nearly a quarter century now. So why should people care about what's happening on the fifteenth? it was it was. It was george w bush in two thousand was the last time you had the iowa winner go on to win the the nomination. I think the key is what happened in the primaries or caucuses since, two thousand is that a candidate squarely of the christian right has one. So in two thousand that was my cock. He won't iowa powered by christian conservatives. you in two thousand twelve was rixey santorum in squeaker over mitt romney, but powered by even juggle christians and in

two thousand and sixteen ted cruz beat donald trump powered by evangelical christians and they make up. You know almost in twenty sixteen two thirds of the caucus electorate and I think, you're. Looking at about sixty percent, sixty five percent of the caucus electorate roughly is going to identify as a born again or evangelical christian as the abject back reports tremendous sway, and if you see the last candidate who was able to do the wind among evangelical christians in iowa, but also have broad support among non evangelical. Christians in later states was george w bush in two thousand, and at least in the past pulling right now we're seeing donald trump fits that basic pattern that we saw with bush in in two thousand, which is to say, and he leads right now. He he finished a very distant second trump did among even

because- and I went twenty sixteen- you know least by our interpol- almost thirty points among evangelicals in iowa. But then you test him in new Hampshire, and again it's been a while, since we ve had our a really good pull him out there. But it's you know, he's got it. It's not is dominant, but you gotta there and he's gonna leave in every other state, pull that we ve seen including south carolina, Nicky, alias homestake. So there's a there's a breadth of support across the sort of republican spectrum the you never had without could be you never. I was sent to him and you never had with crews that right now, at least in the following trump has meaning it is wild. You know two. If you were someone sitting back and raising, seemed to hear that you would be able to likely pick the states were trumpet do best in the primary based on the high A percentage of the voters are evangelical for christians further to forced donald trump, its literally stunning shift, I think in politics, because the ones you may before a santorum and Huckabee were. true

Soldiers and the christian right move man for years beforehand, and now there are picking someone who really has been unable to quote a bible verse, for you know his entire time in ABA in public life, it's. No it really is, I mean we, the numbers are just so stark on it. Like I said you know he was at twenty one percent or twenty two percent. I should say in in two thousand and sixteen trump was among evangelicals in iowa. Twenty two percent is what he got in the caucuses in our polling. Now he's at forty seven percent- and I thought one thing before MIKE pence dropped out of the race it was. It was really striking to me and evangelicals were going to be pensive bedrock. That was the theory of his candidacy. He fits when you talk about like a huckabee assent santorum. Yet he absolutely fit that profile. He was he was going to make a stand in iowa in the final poll that was taken that we took literally as pence was dropping out of the race, had shrimp in the high forties and had pence at one per cent in iowa among either

chemicals, so I think that it is a huge dorian. I weren't into huge story nationally that since the beginning of that twenty sixteen campaign, when there was a lot of scepticism at some plenty of resistance among evangelicals to donald trump. It's going completely in the office direction now were not only are they supportive of him, but there one of his core condition sees no, it seems like based on the ad traffic what people are saying on the stamp that to scientists healy, are basically competing against each other for second in the goal for either one of them has to leave their. at some measure, something they can hang onto that says I have momentum heading into what comes next. What do you think success looks for either one of them coming out of iowa. I think I've my says is the pressure is more to say it is because he is simply put or into making a stand in iowa. He's locked up the endorsement of the governor Kim Reynolds was very popular, although that has not

any evidence of loving off on him by the inner plants, who is sort of acknowledged as one of the key leaders of the evangelical movement in iowa. Again he got that endorsement, no evidence. Yet that is really redounded was benefit but yeah, I think, look just the profile of the the electorate in iowa. What what to say this has been aiming for in terms of the group's he keep would like to build a coalition around. I was a state that he should be done. wing well in? If he's, if he's, if he's going to be competitive for the nomination- and he spent a lot more time in iowa than not the nikki haley has so I I I think more pressure on him to get second, but even if it gets second, if its, if it's a second like we're seeing in our poll right now, where he's more than thirty points behind trump, I'm not sure what that what that gets him my my senses. It would really have to be a second, a surprisingly strong second, and I don't know quite where he will have to see the final numbers to see where you're, where you're kind of

the bar could be funny in iowa. You know I mean that famous story back and in nineteen. Eighty four were go way back in time here, Gary her most iowa by thirty four points: Walter mondale, but Gary Hart basically won iowa, because somehow he got momentum and he won new Hampshire and it became this political phenomenon. So he had is weird benchmarks can kind of emerge, but I think the santas has got to do something not just second but A significant second haley's, a little different. I believe she gets second for her campaign. It's it's a big boost, ah, because she is much better positioned in new Hampshire wanting to see it as his hero. He has some real strength in new Hampshire, she's running. You know, depending on the poll she's running fairly competitively with trump there right now. The big differences, the two big differences between either I am sure, we're talking about evangelical christians, bout tooth. As I said, a electric in iowa, maybe a quarter in new hampshire, twenty to twenty five percent, so

it's one of the most secular republican electorates, you're going to get, and also the participation of independent voters in the new hampshire primary, and it's it basically as high as you're going to find anywhere. In two thousand and twelve, when obama was running for reelection and there was really no democratic primary in new Hampshire, which is similar to what we're going to have this year. Forty five percent of the of the new hampshire republican primary electorate said they were independents who were choosing to participate in the republican primary that day, an independent is the group that haley. he's doing the best among right now? So if she can come out of iowa with anything that looks like momentum, it do see a potential for heard, a role that into new hampshire and potentially make it interesting there, the you, you bring. You drew the parallel between this race in two thousand and in that parallel trappist russia be bush someday. You would probably take very kind or maybe you're fucked georgia be profoundly when neither throbbing euralia is that's all and highly is mccain.

given that and given healy strength in new Hampshire, are you surprised at haley's competing in Why? Because Chagas Mccain famously did not compete in iowa did not come it again- and I will end two thousand and eight and put all of his chips in new Hampshire. It helps let me stay, sort stay alive in two thousand and adopt and become the nominee in two thousand and eight even surprised that strategic decision from the heavy folks yeah a little bit. I honestly what I was looking at some of this new hampshire numbers. I thought she might just kind of just ass. I was I, but I think they see an opportunity to beat to scientists to get second and weather would drive to say this out of the race on the spot were it would effectively it and his case if they were able to pull it off. I think they see that opportunity and- and you know, potentially to get closer to a one on one race with trump, which is what their everybody's goal is, and I think there has to be some recognition

in the early campaign that, if your relying, if, if, if your campaign is disproportionately driven by the support of basically non republicans, whether that's independence, whether that's the small number of Democrats who can participate in some of these states or republicans who don't like donald trump, very distinct minority of the republican electorate, but the those who don't like down trump disproportionately like ellie. That is what driving her support in a lot of ways, and that's not. I think they know that not enough to win the republican nomination, they ve got to expand on that. So I think that from that standpoint there some importance now Why in showing that they can win over some of those, some voters who don't fit the profiles? Just talking about the challenge, I think healy in that scenario? Is that in most of the points that I have seen to date, the second choice of anti voters is not making headway. Right is donald trump and it's in some senses. I would if I was saying I can pay what I want is to

it is to grow stronger. the second choice. Trump voters is not making elliot's around us yes, and so the vegas ultimately going to get to the one on one point at some point therefore you and you're gonna need a bigger available universe than that than she currently has we'd audible. About the role that second choice plays inserted, how people game out these strategies yeah? I know it's just interpret second place in iowa, yeah yeah. I know right I'd, look! That's the problem. Cayley, I think sees the potential of momentum. Second place it momentum, rolling that into new Hampshire. I think there is no synonymous talking about her by the governor new Hampshire christendom who endorsed haley, is talking about winning new hampshire, but, I think they're. You know they're they're trying to keep the expectations have been under wraps, but I think that her campaign would you know very much- has done their minds to win.

new Hampshire, and what that would then set up as you you do have nevada in between new Hampshire in south carolina nevada. It's a very weird situation. Is here: there's gonna be a primary. No delegates are at stake. Hayley will be on the primary about there's gonna be a cock. Two days later. Healy will not be part of that. The delegates will be awarded there, sir. I know as a very weird one. I don't know that is going to carry much weight this time around. So I think what really if, if Haley were to, you know, get a strong second or a meaningful second out of iowa. If this is a huge if, but if she were able to win new Hampshire, you know she would get obviously there'd be a flood of attention. The media spotlight, you know and there'd, be you know, could she actually knock off donald trump and I think the state then this would be like that. Parallel, the two thousand, with bush and Mccain, the bush and mccain race went to

carolina the trumpet haley race would go to south carolina south carolina in this case her home state too, and so you know she would then need to win and obviously she would need to win south carolina. I think that to to be a plausible claim and the problem she gets into she's polling right now, much better in new Hampshire than she is in her home state and south carolina again we talk about new Hampshire, being the most secular republican electorate, south carolina. I think, in two thousand and sixteen with seventy two percent evangelical and it's republican, he knows even more than iowa and trump. Of course, you know swept it in in twenty sixteen, so you're, a right away, you have if she gets the huge went on in new hampshire. You know she's going to a state that demographically is a huge challenge for her given given the nature of her support right now, but it's also her home state, and so

I would be awfully tough it she didn't win south south carolina or come awfully closer. They can be tough to to make the case that she's got momentum to continue, because there is a lot more states and in the republican primary mixed it that resemble Iowa south carolina demographically than that resemble new hampshire. So from her stamp, wait. You know it's it's get to south carolina and I you know I I don't think they would say this, but I think realistically she would need to win south carolina and I think, for the santas, it's you know is to get a strong easter Second out of iowa shoulder some life there, and then I think you know he's not pull well in new hampshire, and I think he might run into some of those problems. You talk about like a a huckabee cruz santorum having in new Hampshire. I think he might then look down south and look more to make a stand in south carolina and some of the super tuesday states and in and say hey

I'm a viable alternative and yeah. I don't know- maybe maybe on some level there hoping that this has been opened up. Trumps, opponents and the republican sedentary here's something happens that The kind guy to marginalize zimmer takes him out, but not an as yet on caucus night when those first result start to command our their specific counties or voter groups, are turnout. Numbers you'll be looking for that, possibly suggests that something is upsetting. The apple of we all expect a huge trump when yeah. I mean there's a couple of places that I would look at and obviously this just sometimes these counties don't report till the end of the night. So they they end up. Yelling know it after that, but the big, the big one I look at is in northwest iowa sioux county

and cause sioux county in northwest iowa is the most conservative and the most evangelical region in iowa. It was trump's worst region in twenty. Sixteen, it was cruz's best in sioux county of the ninety nine counties in iowa sioux county was the worst one for donald trump. We succeed you gotta eleven percent out of sue, so in overwhelmingly conservative and evangelical county, pretty good. size. Two. You know that that's not where the big population center in iowa is, but for that region it's a good size, and so you know is he is he winning there? I mean the polls right now suggest, if he's getting forty seven percent with evangelicals he's winning in a place like soo, easy He just rolling up massive margins if he is, if we were to get soo early in the night and shrimp were to be up, you know, you know twenty thirty point something like that. I think it'd be very hard to see how to Santa says

good night meal if you were to get sue and scientists were now with a single digits. You might ask this. This might be a lot more interesting than we thought. So, on the one hand, it's that, on the other end not you look at some suburban areas. You get the ethernet port county. Where DES as you could look right outside in Dallas county suburbs of des moines. This is a another place where trump struggled in two thousand and sixteen it's it's not here. The evangelical presence. Is a lot lower, but what you're going to get more are college educated, suburban. Ah, these are the types of republicans who traditionally vote more on pocket book issues and they were very uncomfortable with trump in iona and in other states and have been

twenty sixteen. Obviously, this is an area where haley in the polling, you know we're seeing it suggest she do very well, and how well is she doing here? How poorly is trump doing in the suburban areas and cause again, if, if Haley were suddenly rolling up huge numbers here or if trump were just lagging badly, maybe even to santas was running up huge numbers? Here again, you could say: well we this this might be interesting here for the night, but if fr, if, if trump's you're holding his own there in running a big numbers with evangelicals, then you're going to get a result that looks like the polls do right now are haley de santis competing for those college, educated republican voters and polk and dallas county. You know it seems

hey, let's see if we seems has much more appeal to them at least, is based in appalling right now that the serious strategy really from the beginning has been, it seems to sort of cell trump ism without trump. Ah, but it's complicated by the fact that he's he's very reluctant to make that explicit case of why you, want him and not want shrub, and I am probably this because of trump's overwhelming the thing that's complicated. This for everybody is, as trump is overwhelmingly popular with republican voters, see if you look at our poll in iowa, and you just ask among republicans favorable on favorable and you tick through the candidate. We had trump at seventy two percent favorable in our last poll and dissenters. We had at sixty six percent favorable, and so I think that gets to the the dilemma that he's faced and I don't think he's found a way to resolve all year, which is that, like he's, it's not that republicans are looking at the saves and saying. Oh now, I don't like this guy. They like him,

they like him, but I think a big reason they like him, is that he has not gone head on against trump, because the people who have gone head on against trump you just look in the port. Chris Christie, no one has been more aggressively out there against trump. In a in a in this campaign. Christie Christie's number is like fifteen twenty per cent. Favorable, among republicans, really the sixty five seventy percent unfavorable for christie. That's what squarely aligning yourself against trump will do to you, and I think that the scientists recognize that from early in the campaign and in I think his is his belief. His campaign's belief in assumption from the start of the campaign was that the twenty twenty two mid term

we're republicans under performed and where the trump aligned candidates cost republic as the senate and cost them. Some key state white raises the. In the wake of that, there was a growing consensus among the republican electorate that hey yeah, we like trump, but it's time to move on and the scene would be there to fill that void and in fact, the early early poland I'm talking about like December twenty twenty two january tweet reach gold seemed to show that sanders was very competitive in his polls. If you did a line graph of the of of twenty twenty three in the polling, where the trump and the santas lines diverge and trump just takes off like a rocket into santas, begins the slow descent. It was early march, twenty twenty three- and that's when that first trump indictment, you know in manhattan over the, stormy Daniels matter, came out and it was almost like that was the rally around trump moment and republicans did that and they have steed bind him and in fact, in the pulling at least even grown in their support for him. Yes,

it is interesting. You raise how popular romanticism republicans glinting people who are just not looking at the point just following the news coverage. We sort of shocked about that trouble. then relentless in his mocking and bullet frankly boy I have to say I guess, there's been a bunch of eggs That's about this anti. This sort of thing he's been modified in social media in and and cable news, firm, eager his awkwardness and his, where an account of people and the of the racist as its trump is strong, and if anyone is surging, it is highly in. I think, It is true that Healy has I'll be at a narrow one, a clear path, the possibly winning but descent. It is twenty points more popular in all of these, walls and one. The most interesting dynamics is that as hilly as escort, unquote surged, my mammy new Hampshire, the number of republicans in the past. they are open to voting for, has gone down nationally and did not enter a priority. Has gone down, you talk a little bit about that dynamic yeah in that

there. I that's. What did in it go back in time, you that's what did in John Mccain against george w bush, because the diner then was bush. As we said, one iota mccain didn't really contested, ain't it I'm all in a new hampshire, remember, the straight talk express the boss, the reporters everything's on them occurred and eat. Yet he was gonna Amory that beyond the canada, the media in two thousand and it was so so attractive to independent voters who play such a huge role in new Hampshire, and so he swamped bush in new Hampshire. At twenty point, when it was the magnitude, nobody it's coming and it was like holy cow. Is this guy actually going to be bush in what the bush campaign immediately turned around and did? Was it made the race bush vs, Mccain, referendum on. Are you a real republican or are you you know, are you? What was the word bushes? Mischievous Democrat amiss jabez independent who's, taking their

news from the media and air trying trouble in the republican primary. It was like if your loyal to the party, your vote and bush you now a vote from a cane is a disloyal, though, for a republican. That's what the bush can't pay message was pose new answer, worked and Mccain did have some success after new hampshire, but it was all it was directly related to like. Could in The vote in the state. How big was the presence of independence in the state? You know came one michigan it we had enough. You have an independent, even democratic presence there, but yoke like south carolina bush was able to would easily and its that's the problem. The bit hayley, I think, faces again to the extent that her success is seen as coming from either non republicans or from trump hostile republicans. I think it's going

it risks in we're, seeing already had engendered the same reaction from poor republican voters that Mccain's strength among independence in and bush skeptical republicans did in into that in that is like nope. This is this is the media's canada. This is the Democrats candidate, we're not doing this where we want the real republican, and you know I think I think that's how trump is viewed by a lot of these republicans when it comes down to it and that's a very different republican. Furthermore, we're talking about now, and also notable as in that period between theirs Now I, when new hampshire happen in quick succession, and there is a gap between new hampshire in south carolina and that how these candidates navigate that gap will determine their success. Mccain made some mistakes, but also the bush folks launched a vicious assault against them. Now that seems likely seems like beanbag compared to republican politics in the trump era that some of the things he did all there were some pretty nasty room.

Campaigns and found a male campaigns about mccain? There were pretty scurrilous by dumbing down below. Think that that's the guy see that's a period you will be watching if Healy, as in his successes, can she survive that assault from trump yeah. What we haven't, we haven't seen trump trumpet the wild career or two we haven't seen from really take after her. What

If and when he does it in again, like I said it's, it's just the fact that it's her home state too just raises the stakes that much more. If she's you're saying it's like idiots, seeing a path more for haley than than santas, I I tend to grill in the sense that I can see potentially a haley win in new Hampshire, from where we're standing right now and it's hard to see other scientists win in iowa or any of these early states from where we're standing right now. This can change overnight in politics but yeah. If she gets that win in new hampshire. It's also it it's hard to see it weird say it's hard to see her turning around and winning her home state. Just given given these dynamics and then given the trump will become, and after her you know, with full force and fury, presumably, and but yet a month I mean it's, you know new Hampshire's going to vote january. Twenty third south carolina is gonna vote february, twenty fourth, so you've got a month in between and and you know, it would be and we'd be obviously looking,

closely at. Are those polls in between? Is she showing? Is she showing growth? Is she showing growth with republicans with evangelicals with these groups that that right now seem resistant to her and if she were to start show if she were come off in new hampshire when it starts showing that then then you'd be about a different rates, but she's? She have to show that which, right now we have seen we haven't seen it very much pulling since Nicky Haley's comment on the civil war. They got so much attention, but from voting, talk to, or some other, maybe the embassy or persons to be heard. Anything about that stalling her momentum at all, where it's it's it'll be able to look at the next round of polling, because I think that type of voter that is most likely to be put off by that first to absorb the key image of it in to have a negative reaction to haley based on it probably is the type of voter she's doing best among right now, which is the trump hostile, slash trump skeptic

independent, you're, more moderate, suburban night. You know that that's the type of voter who I think, Isn't gonna look at a necessarily going to look at that? That incident say all this is just the media she's, not appealing to that voter right now, she's she's, appealing to a voter- and you know I I, as I said, she's appealing to a voter- that I think is more likely to to kind of see that hear about that and and maybe maybe adjust their view of her because of its. I am looking like in the wake of that. Does her? Does she stall with independence? Does she move backward with independence, she doing well with college educated women and does that change at all? You know. I think these are groups that in some you could see him pulling and might be more swayed by a story like that the last question for you have not let you get back to your data, you know you. We would

A lot about the two thousand parallel for this republican primary. If this ends up being Biden tromp, do you have a general election, historical parallel you're, looking at as a potential equivalent to that that to the general election or as anything rob era of blacks. One event, the a the short answer is now I mean it's just think of the dynamic. It's a it's a sitting, president running against a former president who the sitting president defeated. You know four years earlier, and I mean this is this: is it's rare for a former one term president to run again, and it has not happened in the modern era at all, the closest the Gerald ford looked at it in nineteen eighty and almost ran. That's that's. That's the closest thing there is to a parallel and that's not a parallel in any meaningful way, and so no, we we don't have a good parallel for it

I and yeah. I just people asked me how I look at that reason. From this vantage point, at least I you know it's, it's striking that the polling of the trump Biden polling right now is quantitatively different than it was at any point in the twenty nineteen twenty twenty cycle. Every major national poll and twenty nineteen twenty twenty had Biden ahead. The question was by how much I and I either NBC polling twenty nineteen, twenty twenty and everyone had Biden up. The smallest margin was six, the biggest margin was twelve, and now we consistently have reputable national polls that show a tied race Biden by one trump by one trump by two by the right in that range. So I it's it's interesting to me that we've we're we're seeing polling

It looks very different this time around than it did in twenty twenty and raises some questions. You know little will have nine months potentially to hash out here and but I just it makes me look at it and say I you know this is you know it's a cop out to say, but it looks like a toss from this vantage pointless, like a toss up race, no, absolutely, and what's its also different, underneath the top. Why numbers right, there's been shifts in some of them whoops? That Biden was strong with His last some with some other voters, but it is, the coalitions are shower. Potentially shifting presuming these numbers are giving us an accurate portrayal, what's happened and make it even more complicated when you add in its potential, strictly well funded well known through. many candidates like and are of key junior a, Joe mansion or some other no labels candidate. These votes on the ballot make you know. where's that number where someone could win a state with thirty seven per cent of the vote as opposed to the forty, nine or fifty you would need to win and like there was in two thousand and twenty

I yeah now I tend to think right now. That's something we're! Probably not. I mean, let's get through the primaries, but I don't think we're following that and as much as maybe we should, because the numbers I dunno, what rfk is going to do in terms of actually making ballots, I mean that's it, that's a big question but like when you throw them in a poll right now, he's registering at levels that you haven't really seen a a third party name in polling register at since Ross perot thirty years ago. Thirty, two years ago, ninety ninety two and and like you said, there's the potential for others to in his well there's the extremely high negatives that both trump and Biden have an awesome yeah. I know in twenty sixteen. There is a lot of I don't like trump. I don't like Hillary and the libertarians got. Three per cent mean there was

little bit of that in twenty sixteen. But I I I look at these poor things. There's potential for a lot more. In twenty twenty four and that's that looms to me as a huge potential wild card at least again, it's pending how serious rfk ends up being about putting an organization together. Getting on ballots, does mansion. Take the bait go with no labels. Do they get an all about me? There's all those questions and around if a boy, if they did yeah I'd, I mean it could be. We could be talking third party impact, with nineteen. Eighty two is the last time we saw that the level of steve monarchy. Thank you. So much good luck is somewhat disease. Him again from scratch starts here. You do they slot thank you.

Well me for filling in for John thank you to steve, grenache and we'll talk to everyone next week. If you want to get ad free episodes, exclusive content and more consider joining our friends of the pod subscription community, a crooked dot com, slash friends and if you're, already doomed scrolling don't forget to follow us at pod, save america on instagram, twitter and youtube for access to full episodes. Bonus content in plus, if you're is opinionated, as we are considered. Dropping us review give us your own takes, gives early, give us your takes on arctic. The pod save america is a crooked media production or producers or olivia martinez and David Toledo. Our associate producer is Farah safari writing support from halle kiefer reach. Ireland is our executive producer. The show is mixed and edited Andrew chadwick, Jordan, canter is our sound engineer, audio support from cairo segment and charlotte landis madeline danger is our head of news and programming met to growth? Is our head of production? Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital tv

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