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in the house, Nancy policy steps down as leader carry lake loses her race for arizona governor and later day and talk to the nevada. dependence. John ralston but how he nailed his mid term calls and they talk about nevadas, political future, but first the cricket stored. launch brand new holiday merge inspired by your favorite crooked podcast new items. Include a bake, appreciate or apron fucking brilliant So please what a great idea, just great for all you take appreciating. Bakers out there, I can't wait to see I wanted to be a picture of Elijah and his take appreciate her baby and that's what I want to say, a magnetic poetry kit that allows you to make your own notes. App, apology, ok and more this.

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so much angel. I met her in his pockets with you, but there is nothing I enjoy more than watching you. and about the march your company makes in real time. Basically, Donald trump making policy announced metal. You had no idea about the the bake appreciate her apron until now like just came out of your mouth and you ve earned it look after five years that the three of us have tried to speed things up with this company and who do you think who do you think overseas march of the three of us I guess it is certainly not you, based on our experience of either I'm guessing its, not tommy, so that wrote. This is a loving second thing he and more important is? I just want to take a brief moment in say having worth it a highly today is worth a happy birthday out ass. We been doing this. As for long time, the podcast has never been recorded a birthday before and so a special day. Here's the thing I think of all of our partners howie this evening.

Who here? This is the biggest fan of piazzas used the most consistent piazzi listener, and I know that because she will text our text, jane with me and you and Emily, and how we on it, and she will mention something that happened on the pod and Emily will not know what you're talking about. well. You should know that while she is a consistent, piazza listener, we are not in her top five of cooking media. I guess a huge huge rolled out here oh yeah, I never cared sports once in her life in any way, shape or form, not one bit about it. Fucking binging road. Corrupt, like there was not a moral, so low world is out. There in college, visited me over the weekend and he was like. I don't have time for a lot of pie. That, though, isn't a pod, save america and, of course, pod save the world of course. Of course, ok, let's get to the news. After three losses, two impeachments in one did coup turned violent insurrection. Donald trump announced that he's officially running for president from the scene of his crew,

I am at mar a lago. The hour long address was panned, as quote one of the most low energy uninspiring speeches ever delivered by trump, and that was from his former white house spokesperson, Sarah matthews the most prominent, petitions in attendance were former congressmen, madison catherine in devon newness. On junior wasn't there vanka wasn They're in released statement during the speech saying that she would not be part of his campaign, jarred cushion, will also not be part of his campaign, but was in attendance. None of the network's carried the each CNN carried the first twenty five minutes and even fox news cut away multiple times. At one point, people in the crowd tried to leave but were prevented from doing so by security, red wedding style. As for this itself. Here are some highlights in order to make a man,

great a glorious again. I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president and we love both sides were gonna, bring people together, we're going to unify people. three years ago, when I left office, the united states stood ready for its golden age, lead so streets of our one. Great cities are cesspools of violent crimes which are being watched. all over the world were going to be asking everyone who sells drugs gets caught selling drugs to receive it. death penalty for their heinous acts. China play a very active role in the twenty twenty action just saying just say Is it in she whose now president for life, I call him Kay

and he said no, no, I am not the king, I said yes, you are the king, your president for life, it's the same thing and I'm a victim. I will tell you I'm a victim. Think of it. I have no doubt that by twenty, twenty four, it will sadly be much worse. and they will see much more clearly what happened and what is happening to our country and the voting will be much different while toward divorced, and would you why did he sound like they hit him with a few tranquilizer darts before he walked out on stage? drowsy walrus is a great way to describe it. So I, like you ever out there thanks I know I his heart. I mean that's our spreading. This, isn't my heart, his blood, his black corrosive occurred at heart was not in it. He just it really felt like he. announced he was going to make this speech felt like he had. do the inasmuch as it may, the announcement before the election

His candidates lost it. He took all the blame for this. sort of turned on but he knew his term has a sense of these acts it if he were the way his announcement. That would be a sign of weakness you, so he just ploughed forward he didn't want to be there at the people in the room didn't want to be there. Susan even want to cover it. I don't even like the fact on junior didn't show up, for it is notable the fact that all this try to leave a transfusion could not. is funny it's sort of a metaphor for the last seven years of our life. I could not get out the doors of moral ago. We are stuck it we're stuck in hotel mar a lago. I guess that's all yeah we're all at mar a lago. I mean it's just. It was just all wait. It was just totally surprisingly lame. I would say, surprisingly, lame. It definitely felt like they had the speech written before tuesdays result, and then they had to go back in there and try to make a few made a few at its to make it reflect the reality of what happened. You know it

Well, with those speeches, here's what I think happened every once in a while trump staff, somehow convinces him to read a speech offer prompter In this case, I think they probably told him it would like. You know it would enraged the fake news media if he showed some message, discipline and state on script and didn't turn the whole thing into another rant about twenty twenty. The problem is, for travellers has always been his problem. He hates reading speeches because Stephen Miller is a again number one, a terrible human being right after that. I too am a bowl, terrible speechwriter who has never learn to write in trumps voice ever and it shows so with trump. You eat get low energy and somewhat on message or high energy and arranged

sure enough. The new york times reported in one of the stories about the speech that, like aides, have been wrestling with MR trump's impulse for airing grievances, particular over twenty twenty. In hopes of keeping him focused on the future, they were determined to recapture the feel of his two thousand and sixteen campaign when he ran as an insurgent against the political establishment. So you could tell they were true. That was the intended message, but to get him to do that, you have to script him and he's never he's, never good scripted. I mean that may have in the intended strategic imperative, but there is nothing in this speech that lets. You can't run and as the insurgents political establishment. Why you spend six the twelve hours of your speech, talking about your accomplishments as president likes two years ago, raise just a it was just a mess in it, but I think it. Really goes to show. Is that trump has nothing to say was? Do you say what do you think there was a message in there? What would you take it

as a message- and I mean even blaine- I mean that won't like gives it feels fake even my answer that question, but I will try. Its ethical think this is a joke. We use a long long time ago. In the beginning of this back ass, the tromp was there a sort of trying to divide strategy for roma catering theses. Like it just happens. But it is what I think I'm sick advisers think the message is is to use the fond memories that some small portion of people have of trump's accomplishments against. The sour sentiments of the american people during the bite presidency wrong track right, track numbers, place in etc, that things work, You know survey, you start the calendar the day before the pandemic started this as well. it was like then. This is what like is like now

in a way all of your descent, all the dissatisfaction you have the direction of the country at the feet of the president. There's one small problem with that strategy. Is they just tried it eight days ago and it didn't work which that sort of cast a pall over the entire speech? And you can tell me that the and then we played it in the clip and the citizens of our country have not yet realized the full extent and gravity of the pain our nation is going through, but they will. Maybe lame is line and the entire speech. But I guarantee you that line was not there before the mid term results. Now, having this speech, look different, I'm not sure trump ever we're going to do. We can deliver this well, it was never gonna. Be a coherent message are part of a strategy, but the environment in which it would take place would be very different if thirteen of sixteen trop endorsed candidates had one not lost. If Joe Biden had suffered a rebuke, not three all of the the environment was,

No one wanted trump to be doing. This trump didn't want to be dealing with. People in the room didn't seem to want to be there. It's like they didn't realize they had to go there to get the tuesday surf and turf at mar a lago. I was just it just now, thing if it is really interesting like leading up to it like this trauma. You know you see you can hit this an intro but job as a former president states. He is someone who led a v I went insurrections you try to overthrow lecturing us. He is one of those people. The planet he is under like night, criminal investigations in every emmanuel jurisdiction and his announcement for president felt like a non event there, like wasn't chat arrive at there was no countdown clock. No one seemed excited about the maggie media. Wasn't excited fox sort of seem like it was that they had to go to a wedding. A couple they didn't think made sense. It was just all which is really interesting? I don't know that that tells us anything what can happen and over the next three years, but In the moment it was a dead there

also by the way, a herschel walker endorsement in that speech that Raphael Warnock immediately turned into an ad, which I thought was great failure thing that really came from. That's we also like no hint of a policy agenda like what he would do is president, except very, like the only new, policy item he has that he's been talking about and rallies for last couple months. Is this executing drug dealers thing he's going full to turkey in the in the philippines lake? It's just very its there's. Nothing new to say is that I mean there's this whole debate about you know: should networks cover trump, you know that we have had for seven years now, but I think that the lack of coverage this time

round was not necessarily like, oh because we dont want to broadcast his lies, but if you're, just just being a news organization, you cover what's new our earth, if some or even if someone is new. But what they're saying is new and there is nothing new here net he did. He has thought about nothing, other than election day twenty twenty for two years, and it's just It's boring here. This is, though, the worst we can happen to trap- is to become boring and oriental. Those are the two worst things well, so you know, as we mentioned, even fox news broke away from trump multiple times through the speech. Here's the moment that happened in germany tried it. They were up for about a year member I sent to. Angela, remember oncology. Remember uncles nobody's remembering earlier on just joining us president trump him our logo, announcing his twenty twenty poor presidential run,

numerical knowing no one's. Remembering anymore, tough, real, tough from from John Hannity there. Why do you think fox of all places did that? What what what he was going on there. I mean they care about ratings too. I guess it's reignite, ices. They thought that they were helping trump more by cutting to two sycophants pete exit and MIKE Huckabee too. Like praise the speech, as opposed to actually in people, the speech which some yeah I mean just there there's someone sitting in the control room at fox who sean hannity. He shows off right. The most pro tromp personality on prime time is up there and that person looked at what she was saying thought about what the audience once the here and should hear and decided that instead of hearing the former magic drone on about Angela Merkel. They would run.

Their talk to a guy who host fox in friends, weekends like that, was a choice they made, and I you know I don't even think its strategic. I they give like, maybe if like laughlin Murdoch or The woman, whose name is scarce meagre runs fox now were like making did like, were in the room pulling Meanwhile, the levers- but this is this- is that we know it's. Ten o clock at night on fox is just some random person is making a judgment on top quality of television. They think tromp is bad. Television. It's just they just think. That's notable, I don't think it's. I don't really believe it says anything about you or the murdoch's walking away from trump, because all the pr it was very praiseworthy from all the commentary on it in the guest they looked on that show worth book to say nice things about trump. There wasn't like they were getting one of the magyar types like candice. Oh Is there someone else who has express reticence about trump? Twenty four? It was just sycophants, but it's just it says just a lot about the quality of the speech in the entertainment value in the news value of him,

Would you think about the reaction from republican politicians, publican, pundits and trumps potential rivals, silence, yeah a lot of not a lot a conversation with a lot of thought. Now, lotta takes from the republican side. There are not enough people saying positive things. people say negative. There has been a little strain of like the of the pro tromp worlds, like the linsey grams like taken just stick to it Group like that that he can do well. yeah. I'm not sure what that means. The my favorite reaction was from the conservative. National review has just had a big picture of trump on the covered said no, and the opening line of their editorial about the speech was an end trumps. Twenty four candidacy quote, to paraphrase Voltaire F,

he attended, an orgy once was an experiment. Twice would be perverse Oh prison. Also national review, like. How long do you think they ve been city? The voltaire orgy thing, bitter their dreadful there as they belong looking for the last decade. I think that I think the dynamic here is most republican politicians and rivals. Dont want him in charge of the party but they're afraid of him in the base of voters, and so they are not sure what to say it so there I'll just going to be we coward like they usually are and where we were running as having been one of the exact same dynamics, it actually lead to january six wishes pending republican run off is forcing a lot of people to keep their powder dry is they're afraid that if the, if they attacked tromp, they will diminish turn out among his voters and therefore lose ascendancy. That is the route of the quota.

from a republican leadership person about that. What's the harm in humor in trump when he was spreading, lies about the election around this time in two thousand and twenty and they're doing a similar thing, there will be some Who may think they're gonna come out on december in early december after that, elections, decided and say they're for the santis or something else, but you can't give trump space. He gathers strength in these periods. You have to you, have it it? You can't humor him. You have to come out and say it and they are. They are going to make all the same mistakes all over again m l and he will end up prompt likely leading the party again or at least for the foreseeable future. For that reason, I do It's like the dimension. Candice Owens people like her laura Ingraham, there's more maga pundits that have a lot of influence that are starting to break away from him. Then there have been before yes, and I also think it's notable that there's a place for these people to land and its with Rhonda santa's.

And your see you know, like I, don't know what the primary will look like you know. You ve got like MIKE pence out there by the way that my pants town hall last night hoof. It was very funny from beginning and which may seem mason counter intuitive, but here's one really really for he clip of him trying to answer a question from one of the audience members this. Freedom based on row also continue barber. Thank you. I represented madison county in congress for many years as andrea. It's nice to see you but you get like MIKE pompiers might pence Christie nome, but, like I think of the field is split, then trump gets the nomination because he only has to hit you know. Thirty. Forty percent in some of these states in its winner takes all normal

in primary, but if, for some reason they all decide not to run or the every everyone consolidates quickly around. Just to santas and trump, I think that is a different situation. Now I mean we talked to us for a long time last week. We don't really know how it will play out, but trump is definitely weaker than he has ever been. The question is whether republicans will have the courage and the strategic sense to exploit that weakness, or they will do what they did in sixteen? They did multiple times are in the presidency, and certainly after dinner, six, which is just stay silent, hope troms falls under his own weight and that is not gonna happen, going up an hour if you want to be the main you gotta be the man and none of them are trying to do in its descent. This is it early. So we don't know we we're leaving office running. I don't even know if he has the capacity to relate to in beings at us. If we do not know and really seems to know that by its notable

if he had stayed silent this whole time. That trump has attacked him. He has stayed silent and if you were, if you know folks who dare to remember that long ago, the strategy of all of those candidates- christie, Rubio JEB bush- was to attack each other, not trump. If you try to be the trump alternative and by the time they're weak they're never got to be a trump alternative. The troubles aren't vendor being ted cruz, which is just amusing in so many ways, because if you don't attack them he's going to gain strength, and so you know what happens next several months euro, I think, will determine what how he's going to walk. If a primer

It takes place and we don't really know that it well. It had been when we had maggie haberman on she raised real questions about whether you'd, based on her reporting, whether de santis would actually run against trump. Now trump is a much weaker figure now than when we spoke to maggie a month ago, but was sick. So I agree with all that and I've been saying that, like like a dissent if trump goes after dissenters and dissenters doesn't hit back, he's he's screwed I just to play devil's advocate. I was trying to think of like from dissenters his point of view why he might be operating like he's operating like. Are there any sort of smart reasons? I think he probably looks at the republican electorate and thanks. Okay. Most of these people still have.

I have very warm feelings toward donald trump, obviously, there's some like mega fanatics, but even the people in the party who might be open to a de his came to see over trump still, probably like donald trump. So if you start getting into pissing match with Donald trump right now, then- and people still don't know rhonda centres or enough people over there, country don't know ron de santis. You know, then maybe his approval goes down and he you know it. His candidacy is over before it begins. Since democrats are much better at beating donald trump than republicans. What advice would you give ron de santis right now? Why so I tend to agree I see that you know getting into a truth off on truth, social with Donald trump seems like a bad idea, but like that's not how to engage with him, I don't care. down his level. Also, if you don't do the marker, Rubio dick showed thing yet do. Basically,

rubio strategy, JEB bushes strategy, do the opposite of those things. Do not be those people while Florida politicians meet with them. Talk to them, take notes on their plans and then do the exact opposite wants to be the alternative. He ass to take. The he has momentum right now, don't forget it. Getting to find a job like what kids you'd, be doing right now to raise its profile to become a vessel for the anti trump sentiment in the grass roots of the party? Put aside the establishment, like what you the mistake to me, it gets to be like all the fun right. The hedge fund, guys are coming out for you, ken griffin, Steve schwarzman, that is actually going to that'll help pay for help fund your campaign, but it's going to beat at trump's advantage, just like all of the establishment going to JEB Bush helped trump in sixteen, but be like be out. There he's been incredibly quiet like he got his good run oppress and it's just sort of. Like

in florida things find a way to. Is there a big speech to give to lay out the future of the republican party that makes the case at its forward? Looking can be an implicit criticism of trump, but don't just hole yourself up in a room with like your four advisers and try and have a bunch of Thank you. If you want to give yourself, even if we have not yet decided to run- and I imagine he probably has decided to run yet he s on process to go through you, if you want to make sure you have that opportunity at the end of your process, you have to be very visible now yeah. I imagine that he would take a look at sort of the primary that we ran against Hillary Clinton back and who suffer because look in theirs. There's a couple big differences, I think run disinterest, a lot more material to work with the trump than we dat's. One devise yes, but he's also running against someone who's like even more

our beloved by the base. It thinks it. Thirty Clinton was right because, there's, like I said trump fanatics look, I think he's now got these. You know incredible majorities and afford a legislature, and I think that you know session does an untold this bring so he'll, try to probably pass a bunch of ship between now and the spring. I met and he will try to pick a lot of fights with the Biden administration because he is a governor of a big state. He'll try to do more stunts, like the migrant stunt right he's going to try to get more. I think, if you're ham, you want to get more attention being like I'm the one who can take the fight to the Democrats into Joe Biden and not this other guy who's yesterday and I'm the future and by the way, he's a loser and I'm a winner, and he might not say that explicitly, but those are sort of

larger themes that you want to get across, even if its implicitly probably over the next few months- and I would imagine in this context that elect ability is going to be a huge point of conversation in this election and that that has been trumps. Superpower, among republicans, is that he be Hillary Clinton run it. He could make a kind of fake argument about keeping the Senate twenty eighteen and then almost winning and Twenty that has been punctured and there you, if you are substantially reposition yourself as the mega guy who can win the guy. Who was once the the conservative who can we not an establishment servant, grassroots conserving, who can win and you're gonna, but you have to make that case yourself. We we know gave Joe Biden alot of pundits dead, some crap for being so explicit in his like debility messaging in the twenty twenty democratic primary, but he was right to do so. That's what people are about,

and he he. There was obviously a lot of evidence to suggest that he was quite electable all the head to head polls with trump, but he also made the case for himself and that's what people want into sanders. But after the same thing, yeah so speak by and by political team, released two videos in response to trumps announcement. Let's take listen to clip from one, Nobody has ever done what we ve done in the last four years. Our entire economic plan, tax cuts for the rich incorporation record, breaking unemployment, the worst job for poor on record, even punishment for abortion. Yesterday there has to be some form of punishment for the one who has to be some for, and if I win We will treat those people from January six fairly. That requires partners. We will give them partners and in the other, one not as good for audio, but it's just from talking about infrastructure a million different times, and then it's a split screen in the other side of the screen is Biden just quietly signing the infrastructure stuff

What do you think about the by invoking the smart move? This. I don't think this says a lot about why strategy david importing important twenty twenty four campaign, the binding or in a bit of thy, challenging purgatory because their most likely opponent, one who, at least up until last week, at a very large megaphone inability to attract attention for himself is out there campaigning against them. Biden has not made a decision about running; he has a process, is gonna take himself into sheer talking to his family, so you're in this place, where someone's gonna hit him against you, but you have not stood up campaign on your own to fight back and so this is, I think, is much signalling that they are going to push back its both message right it's on the success. He was a failure and better structure that him, which the obviously sense people to the ramparts were so excited about that up up up up.

and just remind people that he's just like all the candidates. They just voted against on tuesday, with the big why budgetary six stuff in April and stuff, but it's just sort of telling the world not really the larger electorate, but just pundits and political activists that we're gonna punch back in the interim before a decision is made on reelect yeah. I got the issues they chose and that first video that we heard is smart and telling for everything we ve just been talking about. With the mid terms. It's like he's extreme on economic policy extreme on abortion, extreme on democracy they get, they did it all so our old boss, David bluff, reacted to the speech by tweeting assume he could win again despite it all and act accordingly. Do you agree and what is act accordingly? Look like. I actually agree. every election barring some drama, a change in the political coalitions within this country. Every president,

watch and in the years to come, every midterm election years to come is going to be incredibly closely divided. The small handful of states that decide the senate, the house and the white house tat. It was in the middle of a pandemic in which donald trump absolute obvious. Well, broadcasting competence killed hundreds of thousands americans, so they lost my forty thousand votes He is a republican nominee. We're right around a coin away from being present. That's if that is the you don't you read this conversational offline that our current everywhere with lynn fabric, the political science professor who has a bit here- is that a lot of cities, presidential elections and makes the point that we live on a knife edge all the time because we're so close it I did in so whoever is on that ticket and those two seats. One of them could be president and it could actually be trump and we can laugh at him. We can make fun of whom we deserve, that, frankly, as a country and as a party but be aware, do not taken for seriously now think a single thing for granted weather is donald trump or rhonda scientists or any other republican.

it actually be president whether Joe Biden is the nominee or someone else. That is the world in which we live yeah and especially if it's er, if it's a rematch of it's Joe Biden and donald trump, then you know Joe Biden, one by like forty thousand votes across three states, and that is a that is tiny. Anything could have with those. Forty thousand voters me that is a weather system in the mid west, from losing like How did we see that cigarette. Hi folks. It's me chris gathered and I host beautiful anonymous. Every week I talked to one anonymous person on the phone for an hour. Sometimes it's funny. Sometimes it's inspirational. It gets heartbreaking. It gets dark. All of the above. I've talked to somebody found love in a mental hospital to a woman who is about to turn herself over the federal authorities, a mother waiting on the results of their daughters, cancer diagnosis. So many more look out for

who episode beautiful Anonymous every tuesday. This need subscribed to beautiful anonymous on stitched apple pod casts the serious exam app or your favorite podcast up, Our lives are what the mid terms, which more a week later, are almost done. The republicans are officially projected to when the house, with a majority, will probably be able to on one hand, I think it could be somewhere between two hundred and twenty and two hundred and twenty two seats. If it's to twenty two, that would actually be the mirror image of what the Democrats have now is a majority. This means that Kevin Mccarthy will need almost every republican to be speaker, the current speaker, Nancy policy. announced today, right before we recording this, that she will be stepping down from leadership. She will made in congress. I was for the next two years, but she will she re to pass the torch to the next generation of leaders in the congress

We're in the senate Mitch Mcconnell was re elected as minority leader after china. you're rick Scott. Only one ten votes we can both from Scott and the last big governors race was called in arizona or katy. Hobbs beat well Filtered election denier carry lake by less than a point about thirty four thousand votes hobbs. His victory means that just about every trump in worst election denier ran for governor secretary of state or attorney general lost. Let's start their carry lake was heralded. future the republican party. What happened, how to katy hubs when it is a yet another piece of it. Since that this election was a rejection of hoboken extremism. Even charismatic well for we know well, media trained extremist, still lose yeah yeah. She got core issues

at closer right like it's interesting, I was looking at the numbers on the on the m governor's race in the senate, race and mark Kelly, get the most votes of any of the four candidates. One point: three million van Katie hobbs. She was at one point two: eight million, then lake at one point, two, six four and then masters at one point, one: nine blake masters Just shitty can't hit us it's it's weird. The guy giving a serial killer vibes was a drag on the ticket that europe so ob got a lot of criticism including from us for not debating, carry. Let me I wasn't on an episode been a Do you think that works, or at least didn't hurt enough to cost or the election is funny that the to prove killing bits of political, conventional wisdom was they?

katy hub should have debated and john fetterman should not have debated, and they both why. I think that While there is some evidence in one particular paul that John betterments decision to debate may actually have helped him there, at least that his numbers went up in the wake of that debate in part, because I think maybe some sympathy for his performance doctor as a statement about wanting local political office. Involved in abortion decisions, probably wasn't great for him, but would approach as is there for the people who pay into debates, whether someone debates or doesn't debate how they do in that debate, is a conversation that happens among people who have already decided to vote and decided they're going to vote for, and so it probably had zero impact either way this? I think we should probably remarked presidential debates, I think, are different. They are they larger audience. The conversation is bigger their broadcast on national television on the networks, but in state races they are funded. Talk about, they may be found. A watch for some people. But it's just worth reminding ourselves that it is

small, the vast majority, the electorate- certainly ones or can decide the election through their decision to? or not vote or from devote it. It's a conversation are not engaged in and does not matter, We should remind ourselves of this small tactical things that are as much as the big stuff. That's my take away too is look, I'm a big persuasion guy and I want to live in a world. Where too, can it's a two candidates debate, and then they and then there's undecided, vote is watching and they changed their minds, and I just the we're not in that world, where I think about the calcified politics that you that's the worldwide. And and and also that the people who are undecided dont consume that much new and not only are they not watch debates, but they're, probably not consuming that much coverage of the debates. So I think that's very possible, that of john fishermen, never debated in decided not to debate and katy. Hobbs did choose debate, carry lake You'd have ended up with the same exact results Can I tell you what I'm so excited for what some point like four

six months from now we're be sitting down into the thursday podcast and you're going to learn. In that moment, crooked. It is now selling big persuasion. Guy t shirts, yeah, no one will bible, but we are worth so I'd so almost election deny a running for state what office lost and, with the very notable exception of carry lake who, just this morning, refused in seed made up some nonsense about voting regularities, which is not true, almost every other action denier has also conceded. Do you think that's a sign that the conspiracy is losing its power And what do you think happens with carry lake? It means it. This is completely safe. We can disengage. Everything is fine. Wool. That's all the time we have heard today. We will see you- and this is now a reality. Tv broadcasts

but what happens with carry lake? I don't think it really matters. There are legal processes will which people can contests election results. I don't know why she is consortium all those yet, but I think it has two things One is the best to avoid in deniers potential insurrection. All things such as wind by a lot right lately, master on. I was an actual insurrectionists. He was legal challenge elections because it goes asked for we want avoided, capable This is something that can be a possible because the margins of the narrow, but when you do that solves the problem in it, and if all These trump big lie. Candidate consider like normal republicans, it probably speaks very directly to the pacific sociopath a danger that Donald trump us only. He can take this all the way to the end in a way that end So dangerous to believe it so much trick yourself into believing so much that you send an armed, violent crime called to the capital to murder,

as president in an attempt to keep power like that is something very specific to him, and that- and I think that is like when, when you ask you know the question about david plus tweet, like coralie is that threat still exists, even if these is eyes out shops in politics. That threat exist yeah. I think the results of this election also made them realise that it's not very popular to be an election, denying extreme It's also, unlike what you know, this is impossible to sort of sort through and pull apart, but like most, These election deniers were extremists, not just because they believed in the big lie, not just because they wanted to criminalize all abortions, with no exceptions most of them, but there are plenty of other that crazy things they send to the fifth like. It is hard to see a dogma austrian as like, posing a confederate uniform,

If the fixture like there's the you know, blake masters is saying that the unabomber had some was an under appreciated thinker, like these people had plenty of crazy shit to pick from here, and it's pretty clear that even folks who are very upset with the direction of the country were not read. to take a chance on people like that you, I have seen some evidence even in some end, some your wit wilderness focus groups too, that the big sums, There are issues that become identifiers of something you know. We ve seen this in immigration debates before where the republic imposition immigration for some portion of the tina. Voters was a sign that these that this is not my party, even if I agree with him on his hands. the riches and four for some set of voters, big. Why matter? It was a

and then you were not tethered to reality or to serious des or the you are to trompe in a way that I think matter of abortion same way right these extremists position on abortions. Those things may matter, then all of the other sort of ancillary, crazy stuff and democrats are going to have to get ready to run against a republican party either at the top of the ticket or in some of the Senate candidates who avoid those, obviously losing positions, they make believe them, but they won't talk about them and we're going to have to figure. And how to. We always talk about like how you create the issue environment. You need republicans, help create it for us, because Donald trump and his candidates couldn't shut up about the things voters hated about them. That will be different next time unless trump's, the top of the ticket. and by the way they will be aided by a media that will love story line that republicans have decided to quote him quote moderate themselves. I am

are ready for you at my mouth thinking about the rhine. Two scientists coverage as the both sides. Presi yearns you well. He yearns for a normal republican who bullies gay and trans kids from the party know its common fava, slag being two degrees less. Clumsy or less obvious in asshole than donald trump does not make you george w bush people we talk. A lot about the hasn't senate dynamics on tuesdays pod, but now that we know who the law these are and what the margins will be. What do you think we can expect from a congress over the next two years? Yes, we don't know yet. The mccarthy will be the speaker here, mostly gods. Yet it is too early to tell our votes. He felt thirty one vote short in the nomination process, which is lord, I would

the he ends up the speaker. There is no obvious other person out there and that thirty one that thirty one vote have his is leverage for whenever sanity republicans want any. We ve already seen it. It was bench did like buried in the new york times that one of the things that mccarthy agreed would be on the republican agenda is in to getting the treatment of the quote, unquote political prisoners from January six and then fame this. Just this morning, the house geo, p twitter account tweeted out hunters laptop is real I'll capital letters so. I bet they're just their lessons, not learn, yes, just as appoint their one of their priorities. ought to lower inflation or that its to advocate on behalf of the people who tried to murder my pants which is funny because you know who is a member of the republican caucus, gregg tents, his brother,

oh yeah that and guidance. They I mean the new york times put it well and they said it just in one of the stories that their their agenda is investigative, not legislative. Just exactly right. All they want to do is investigations and that's how Kevin Mccarthy is going to keep his caucus together by promising those things. So it's going to be an interesting two years what do you think about this? It did you see that we might not get the debts healing down in the lame duck, because because because the second Mention again is like we need a bipartisan. The election was nine days ago right back into the mansion, call the sack and we have a virus. That's insane it isn't. Instead, it is in this Imagine fault. I believe if this adds up to be the case by the rapporteur for the report,

suggests that this is not just posturing, that people are very concerned that this will not happen and we are handing a detonator to a group of dangerous yahoos and yet the were hawketh caucus. That's basically now run by not really Kevin Mccarthy but marjorie taylor, green and she gets to decide what happens she gets. It say whether the global economy blows up or not cool. Heaven. Mccarthy is some: who voted to overturn the election hours after a mob of trump supporters, try to kill him. This is not enough. John vainer was a miserable speaker. He was, he was just a week individual, but he did not He thought his members were crazy and tried to the failed to moderate their craziness. That has not given mccarthy. Now he makes John baino like Nancy, plus he. So we condemn answer. This is very, very dangerous and there were our forces emission economy, for instance, what

as a stronger force within the party and able to help work with centre, to read it others to eventually bring these debts ceiling, fights to a close without russian, the global economy. Mr Connell, has a fraction of the legitimacy within the party he had before so this is a very dangerous in with trump running for president. On top of this, in pushing pressure being It is insane to not fix it in Republican should want to fix it. Frankly. Yes, I don't get whatever anyway, to end. In a high note, we should say that you know with policy stepping down. I think she will go down in history is like maybe the best most productive, shrewdest speaker of the house that the country's ever seen hands down as an utterly think. It's a close call. She has been a tremendous speaker a tremendous minority leader in the opposition. She had stood up,

as she has worked with present stood up against persons annulling the think. It's a close calls for sheer amount of legislation. She's got improved, capron she'd been aiming to keep her caucus together. It's it's, it's easy irritably, impressive ads This very words like this republican carcass is going to be disaster. When it's this clause and nancy, We pass huge pieces of legislation with exact margin in manila, wonderings, cavern, mccarthy, data that they're gonna be. If you can get these fucking yahoos degree in a lunch menu and she's passing climate change, legislation and major stimulus bills, and all of that late I mean she's she's, amazing. She will go down in history. President obama would always say couldn't have done any of that stuff without her and senator reid, and he really. He really believe that. I really believe that, okay We come back dan talks to John ralston of the nevada independent what happened in that state in the mid term,.

hi folks. It's me chris gathered and I host beautiful anonymous. Every week I talked to one anonymous person on the phone for an hour. Sometimes it's funny. Sometimes it's inspirational. It gets heartbreaking. It gets dark. All of the above. I've talked to somebody found love in a mental hospital, talked to a woman who is about to turn herself over to federal authorities, a mother waiting on the results of her daughter's cancer diagnosis. So many more look out for Whoever episode beautiful Anonymous every tuesday, the senate subscribed to beautiful anonymous on stitched apple pod casts the serious ex app or your favorite podcast up joining us now as the person who reminds us every two years. The silver state matters generosity that independent John welcome back deposit america. I then right around the time. Early vote start coming in in your state. I set up twitter alerts for use, so can track what's happening. So I know that you are right:

if we sleep deprived these days been pretty busy. So we're grateful that you will take the time here when you should be heading towards your vacation. I would hope to talk to us about this actual you know, it's funny how my twitter friends, I make every other year someone before they disappear. It's like a one election stand, then it so hard though I stay, with you, I just gotta turn off the alerts. After the answer countered by I, I still reader tweets of irregular. I want to start with a prediction that you made before the elections. I think viewed, polled democratic operatives around the country, the sentiment wise as a catholic quarter master was by far the most vulnerable of the democratic incumbents. If you'd ass, this pick one race that we were likely to lose, and probably this one give in some of them its strength. That report You have shown in this day the demographics etc. I didn't use a lot of people and frankly gave a lot of Democrats hope when, before the election, you predicted

master would actually win and that the rabbit Joe Lombardo would win the governess race. What we you'd make that prediction, and did you did the rigid your reasoning bear out when those results came to fruition? Well, now the proof that the reasoning behind this is as you want. You can have a thing, is you can you can accept or even a broken clock and explain why it's right, you got. It was not a magic ape. All I promised so You know I've been duly protection for a long time, as you know, before the election and the hardest year that I've had to do it, and I took a lot of heat by the way You probably saw that you are a special report. And were not just cause and almost cocky. They were going to win them. So have I come to the conclusion to make the kind of split verdict, Lombardo had been running ahead of abandoned, lacks alter Catherine cortez mass was appointed by one or two points in every pull that I did.

But I had seen but the as you know, the kind of ignore poles months. I start looking at the early voting data, all which is somewhat predictive in nevada because only be well vote early, even after the change in the way we do elections with all the male balance, and it looks the republicans we're doing pretty well, but there were several things that went into the calculation. First of all, there are there was no question in my mind that people really really hated steve's dislike for what he had done an end during covered in the covert hang over, As I call it an angel. I thought he was in big trouble, whether that fair or nothing I'm just talking about how we made a decision so I thought them people who we're just gonna, never vote procedures like including some democrats and independence or big cohort in this day, and so I came to the conclusion that german bartels team would run a good enough campaign that their organs we get up.

so Kevin. Cortez master was run, against someone who I think the national media really miss something in focusing so much on an blakeney certain hersel walker and doktor eyes. As being these terrible trumpet, worse candidates that that they made? what should have been wins very very every adam, lacks all too terrible candidate. The only differences is that his camp pain was able to cocoon him enough, so he did say as many done things is some of these others. He had worn out as welcome here then here. He had observed a lotta republicans by Blowing what they thought was an almost The thing governors race, therefore giving in twenty eight in giving Democrats can complete control of carson city and the ability to two redistricting reappear ocean. However, they wanted, and so there are, there was some buyers, remorse going on Republican party than a lot of people did not pick up on and especially, and wash your call me, would you

arena ways in which, by the way, he ended up loosen by five or six points insult from records of had run almost a flawless campaign, very disciplined. She worked really hard the last month and her media in the I laughed all as this kind of child, a privilege and baggage moved here to run for office in who was caught and a saying role. Verses wade was always a joke and they play there over and over again I thought combine all those factors with the fact that, despite the mature a burial of their so called red machine. Here it was still alive and well and will just barely push her over the top. So that's how I came to that conclusion when a lotta conversation over the years and even in the wake of the election about the quota quote Harry read. But she could you sort of explain what that is, how it works and how it has persisted. Both long after a senator reads, passing

also with some changes in the leadership, the democratic party within a state yell. So the red machine developed was developed by hurry, read after some, it actually struggles back to ninety ninety eight when he almost lost his seat, the john ensign by foreign. in twenty eight votes. I remember all these numbers because I have a crazy memory and I happened to be reading a book about here I know you know that's going on. I used them yeah, so and he knew he had to make some changes and they didn't all come to fruition until two thousand and four We brought in an operator from Missouri by the name of rebecca lamb. Louis julia became passed with overseeing the red machine and what she did was bringing Ali ray talent and hard working both there. Driven a young awkwardness and just hard workers who knew that there was a formula and the formula isn't that complex executing it is to some extent men registers many borders as you can and then turn them out.

vote during early voting early voting last for two weeks here harry. Wasn't the guy who's going door to door? He wasn't the guy punch in the numbers right. He was making the thing got funded and no one could money like Mary read so after we left office in twenty. Sixteen, the machine was still there. I have a hard time raising money and then, after the vote, cycle and had even more difficult time, because, as you alluded to these democratic socialist, took over the democratic party which I often referred to and I think rebecca I'm cringe that this description, legalise money laundering up where they would raise all this money, in all and then use it to register and turn out voters, but they got around that they set up a parallel organization and You got the funding for this machine and they they were able to change some election laws that they thought with them.

Let them because they have an organization infrastructure. Republicans have tried some copycat stuff but they have never been as effective or hired as good people as rebecca lamb and her team, and it is remarkable by the way people think that catherine cortez masters victory is remarkable and it is in many ways, but the fact that Steve sis black after everything he had endured and all of his negatives is going to end. Losing by about twelve fourteen thousand votes out of more than a million cast, that's solely due to that machine, then, and what they were. to do with why they won three, how seat that the Republicans thought they were going it's. Why, in a mid term, would Joe Biden numbers here under forty percent in some democratic poles they picked up seats in the legislature. Also it really is a remarkable operation and and rebecca lamb. Who is that

I thought it was going to do the mic dropped several cycles ago. She she won't do that until she finishes some stuff. She wants nevada to be first in the nation in the primaries and wants to win for president in two thousand and twenty four, but she deserves a lot of credit, shit shit you operate in the background. She'll, probably he remains, her name on this gas, but what she is responsible for these victories. nevada is a state that, I think, are what you read. You probably know this too well to agree with it, but a lot of democrats. Was trending pretty strongly blue after twenty twelve olano easily. In a way that six, not over six points and twenty twelve snap, in twenty sixteen, and that has been incredibly clothes since ankara, the close and twenty it has been sort of in the forefront of some of the demographic shifts that have happened with in the party coalitions since trump, sir you think you saw on Tuesday earth and they d the election That is what you guys do there that's gives you some indication of where

this, where your state is going and twenty twenty four and beyond. It's hard. You know it's hard to leave her. What the eternity in politics, twenty four hours is an eternity and politics now the way it works right as opposed to two years, but listen, there. There is no question that the Just look at the numbers nevada, his turned slightly rightward since that time. Obama did so well in the stadiums Double digit the first time and then, as you say, what by six or seven points that that the second part I am not sure that that is something the republicans. Can banker and wash your county she's, really that deciding county and really the bellwether county that is the way it works, will quickly is a car county. I say this as a seventy percent of the votes very heavily down radical or less so than it used to be the fifteen moral colonies are deep red counties and then

and then they try to offset whatever the margin is and clark, and then we shall decide snake. I think that people who marshall county after twenty twenty, thought that wash and after what happened, with cold n, n, n n and people being really mad at the Democrats, in both Biden. Answers like it trending read. I had someone on election day when they show results came out. Some very smart republican operative in wash tax me. egg wash was going right again and then everything, it is all about came in and and and so wash county is a purple counting and you can They say that has trending slightly blue in some ways, and so low as you know better than anyone. It then can. its matter panes matter who the Democrats nominee Biden doesn't run, go there. Who is the Republican in, is going to determine a lot that happen. in the battle, but I think you still have to say that the battle leaned slightly blue in the presidential

based on what happened since obama, one in two thousand and eight Joe Lombardo is one of the small handful of kenneth, endorsed by former president tromp that one he certainly got less attention, then carry weight or doug mastery, I know tell us a little bit about Joe Lombardo should democrats, who are very worried about these maga candidates, who have at some point in times express some support for the big lie or question that binds legitimacy. What what should we think about Joe lombardi on what what a potential threat he poses to election integrity and democracy in your it's a great question and I think it's unfair to Joel and barbara to compare him to carry lake or mariano Rivera jr trump's, but he is he's. I only put them in a basket as much as someone trump endorsed by e se as he is different and also in the sense that he wants trump to set something and and- and he is not an election denier in that sense. In the story of trump endorsing this kind of interesting in the sentence, different kinds-

story than almost any other one. A jolt was in a multi way primary for governor against the way the a former senator dean heller. The mayor of north las vegas, John Lee, who, which parties run and a guy named joey gilbert, who a mega, maniac drastic, work with Burton conspiracy, theory believer, but he started to do well and started to get kind were called found. in a cold following sometimes, as you know, Dan is enough to win in a multi way primary and saw that one. reached out and got the trump endorsement, just the kind of seal the deal in the primary but Lombardo I will take up of arms length, but he came right after the primary prompted to do an event. Lombardo and Adam lacks all. There was actually almost oh come on, you appreciate is there's the sheriff our county running for governor tromp standing. I still, and the first thing he says and work out the headlines is that it is a such pool of crime.

Thank you, MR president. So is he frightened I emphasise that all the trump endorsement, but one- and this is my opinion- strategic error- that sizzle act and his team made. There is during the debate and I moderated debate, I asked Lombardo if he thought tromp was a great president. He said I wouldn't use an adjective I'd say he was a sound presidency by afternoon they put a press release correcting they're, saying he was a great president and then trump came a couple days later. and one lombardo was up on stage. He was calling him the greatest present in the water, so it was a campus bending of the knee. What like almost all republican candidates, think they have to do, in the new york times reported last week

I think I'm sorry, then all the time is running out. I me understand and remedy the exactly where I thought it happened. Its trump heard about the what he said in the debate when crazy, we can withdraw the endorsement until they put out the corrective statements on that you know he's not an election denier. He did the night to election and integrity, which are the cold words that the basic needs needs to hear. But he is not talk about overhauling election was surely for border. I d, like every republican scoreboard, nowhere in a democratically controlled legislature, a ring election deniers secretary of state who could have done some damn washed, and so I dont think that Bartels agenda at all, is, is it is too change the election laws to make them a threat for integrity they're going to try to ratchet back certain things, but here's. The thing, then, is that what the red machine is proven is that some of them and here, but the truth is that it doesn't matter what the system it

they're going to organize they're, gonna, outwork and I'll fun, whatever the system is, and so I do, Consider joe Lombardo a threat. The thing about it, Lombardo sheriff of car county he's a cop. His entire career he's running about state government. Are these data can be He was able to fake it through superficial. if, during the campaign, got a lot to learn we put around and I think you're gonna be the signal on that issue. You asked about an and other issues in state government, Last question, for you mentioned rebecca lambs desire to make that other, first in the nation and the primary process as we don't whether we're going to have a democratic primary. This upcoming election cycle there may not be, but the Dnc is going to is looking at the ad, how to rearrange the calendar. There are a lot of concern since twenty twenty about the sort of accessibility. caucasus as a method is never considering that switching to a prime

in order to be in the front of the counters anything you you can. You can tell me about how the party there thinking about it the case that became the latin I'm. So it's going to be a primary cause just for this reason there, because they knew then you know look I caucus was a nightmare. Carcasses are undemocratic, even even Harry may rest in peace before it What's it all right, I've decided carcasses, ratified democratic. We should change, we should change it, but they wouldn't. all, because they wanted to show that the Dnc look. We were up One is the right way. Please make us first and by the way, I think, if hurry we're still alive, that, though, we would have a much better chance of being first in the nation, does he could whisper in the presidency or do this? For me, george, the president will have some say in this debate the delaware. But I do think said that he is going to have some say if there is a primary system and who goes first, and I think that it has- case, to make by the way, I'm obviously a partisan. You know, I think I think we matter

should matter more you were much more of a demographically, diverse state and end. We are what the democratic party wants to show them the nation. Despite the kind of corking is the matter and the caricature of the vat- and that is done- not that you never do that then, but they sounded people nationally have done John ross, and thank you the much I hope you, these final vote, to give counted, and you get to hear long, vacation and states, while you're here I can give an updated on what has happened in this election. I forever the based John ralston for joining us today. Everyone have a good weakened dan and I have a thanksgiving mailbag for you. That's gonna run next tuesday other than that Everyone have a great thanksgiving, giving breakin willa will see after the holidays by everyone.

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