This moment of com is brought to you by american national, because when it comes the important things in your life like family and business, being an insurance company. That's therefore our clients at the right time, things a little less stressful, as they say in business timing is everything: american national relax we're here. american national property and casualty company and affiliates springfield misery high This is done. Saki from MSNBC is inside with generosity. How do you take it unprecedented election that could see a criminally indicted ex president. Take on the current commander in chief, how one crucial down ballot races that will ultimately shape the power dynamics for whom ever wins the white house. And how do you win voters of any party when Trust in leadership is at an all time, high clem casket,

never palmary the hosts of a new MSNBC podcast how to win. Twenty four have some ideas. There, two of the most well respected voices in american politics today and have first hand experience winning difficult, if not impossible, raises clear mechanical the first woman ever elected to the? U s and from Missouri, and she won a Democrat in a red state at that she also knows how to win at the state and local level, serving as a candy prosecutor and in the state house, representatives. Then only clear now how to win her own races. She knows how to pick a winner because one of the first senators to endorse barack Obama in january, two thousand eight jennifer palmary considered when the most accomplished communications advisers? In? U s politics, she served as well communications director for president obama, director of communications for Hillary Clinton. Twenty sixteen presidential campaign and white house deputy press secretary for president bill Clinton which in the weight has for twelve years, surely you nick understanding of what it takes to get their houses

Actually? U s president's need to operate and how to manage unexpected crises, generous also a best selling author and the co of the political doc. You serious the circus on showtime in this new podcast here straight from clearing jennifer unfiltered about? How can we from both parties can or maybe camp when this important election cycle. Please join me now listening to how to win two thousand and twenty four and please subscribe to the series in the how to win twenty twenty four feet. I hello, I'm Jennifer palmary here with my brand new co host former senator claremont castle clare, and I have known each other. For decades, we ve been in the trenches together and we are so excited to bring you this new podcast from MSNBC how to win twenty twenty four

clear and I have worked at the highest levels of government and we have some unique insights into what it takes to get there I also have some crazy stories that we are excited to share with you, and we have a lot to say about this unprecedented, extraordinarily historic, high stakes Twenty twenty four election, including a lot of important things that we don't have time to get to when you're on television. So it's terrific to be here, I I get frustrated. Sometimes when we have to speak in clips on tv or, as we say in the business, a crisp bite, we can have sloppy mumbles on a podcast and actually have a conversation that allows us to hopefully pull back the curtain and give really good information and talk about breaking news, but, most importantly, make it real. Winning is hard The presidency is super super super hard, since both of us have

been in and around tough elections for most of our dont lives. We feel like we're equipped and we hope you will join us for this exciting ride. We're going to share with you the things that we text each other about right. These are the things that we talk about off camera, not the things that you here, bout necessarily on television, so that means maybe even a little football. claire, don't even start? Don't even start now we're not go in there. Let's save it, ok, but this is a pilot. This is a first episode of cats get to business. We got plenty of time for the inessa. Ok, we're gonna, kick things off with a segment were calling winners and losers. Where we break down the biggest fail on the trail and an unexpected win of the weak, ok biggest down the trail, we have to start with vitamins pull numbers. This is what all of our friends, including our very politically astute friends, are texting us about p.

Well, even with deep knowledge of of how polling works and how all campaigns go are actually worried about. So I'm going to go through cnn poll that came out late last week as an example: okay, Biden's approval rating thirty nine percent- that's a second lowest ever- was thirty eight percent last summer, second lowest at thirty nine percent. Seventy three percent of people were seriously concerned about the impact of Biden's age on his ability to do his job. Sixty seven percent of democratic and left leaning voters said they wish they had an alternative to Biden and this one really struck me. Fifty eight percent said that his policies, his economic policies, even after all, sorts of good economic news, have actually created a worse economic environment than improved the economy so claire, I got lot.

I about this, but what stands out for you? What do you think the campaign by the needs to do to focusing on the next few weeks to briefings room? Well? First of all I mean the jim has seen a camp for those who don't know. Gemma Siena he's also been in the trenches in many presidential campaigns. This. The bed wedding stage at this point in twentieth and obama's numbers. Sucked obama senior romney. At this point. Twenty eleven people, that's exactly right. It's called the incumbent blues. The american people inherently watch change in a presidential election, no matter how good the present. is no matter how good the economic whose is this just always a tail wind for change in every election. That's why twenty twenty four is different than twenty twenty. Having said all that, I think the main thing they ve gotta do

is one, don't get tired of saying the same things over and over again about the job creation and about the wage increases, but, secondly, do it may be while doing pushups right. Let's see more of him doing saul cycle, let's see more, whom I have five and I'm kind of kidding but They ignore this issue. I remember the early days, and I know you painfully remember the early days about her emails, and how we kept saying to each other. This is such a nothing burger. There is no story here. There is nothing she did, that was criminal may be slightly slot. be around the edges, nino shades of maybe hunter Biden and how to handle that. But nothing was disqualifying about it and so, as a result, it building a building the building, so I think they got to grab this thing by the throat. I think they ve, use some humor and creativity. I know their planning on ads in iowa and other places about his vigor and his presence on the

world stage in a way that shows his vitality and his policy chops and his ability to get things done. I think really should not shy away from that, and I think they should lean into the fact that these are two guys they're the same age Essentially, the same age right I, sir, we think Joe Biden is in better shape, then donald trump, totally and because trumpet so raising and disqualified. In other ways, we sort of ignore the fact that he is also oh yes exactly I mean a Bernie sanders is older than Joe Biden and I dont have anybody calling for him not to run again because of his age. I dont know if he's gonna, but so anyway. I think that now the pull numbers are problem, but hopefully it gets everybody motivated and keeps everybody motivate. So this is my takes up. A bomb was losing to romney at this point and twenty eleven a bomber also had low approval radiance he was in the low. Forty is vital in the high thirty's like it's, not

that different, particularly since we live in such a polarized world. Now he is doing adds. As you say, I mean I do think they are leading into the age as wisdom more and also Biden's reaction to the age issue. Watch me watch how I do, and they put the add up last week, showing his trip to you. Brain. That obviously shows a man with a lot of vigor. A lot of energy he's just finished this vietnam trip. That was a whirlwind: seventy hour trip abroad and lake. We all know he's old. We know that. So, let's just see more of him. You know his speech, you and I texted last night. His speech at nine eleven, very moving. That was a great moment to go, see the memorial John Mccain in vietnam. That reminds us that he likes to bring people together. He's friends with republicans bipartisanship matters to him shows the good qualities, and I think that's just you know ages. I was going to be there, but I think that's how they best deal with.

By the way we didn't start ads and the obama reelect until november of eleven, and there are already on the air with ad, so they are trying to deal with stuff. The thing that stood out to me, that was the economic numbers I didn't expect to see, binds approval rating on the economy go way up in these poles, but I was surprised to see him do worse with voters on his economic policies, helping things I think that might be, because

is when people think of economic policies. I think if interest rates and inflation and obviously interest rates are high Biden does not control that the fed does. But there was one stat buried in this cnn poll that I think is something to build on and we'll talk to cranach ii about this, because we got Steve Carnegie, coming up young voters and voters of color. That Biden really needs to win in twenty twenty four part of the twenty twenty coalition that gave him his win. They think government should be doing more to solve problems. Guess what guess? What voters? Under forty five and voters of color Joe Biden has done a lot to solve problems is the things that people just don't know about that they they have a lot of accomplishments, that they can talk about and they are starting ads that talk about the economic accomplishments. So that's like the thursday night football game last week I know,

for a subject with you. I know chiefs loss, but he started ads. There have been a run in the battleground states on the economic accomplishments. So the other big question, though the people are saying right now, is there anyone else on the democratic side that is in a better position to win? No, everybody on board. Stop it right now, stop it. Now, it is about getting everyone. Roads, sturdy is about explaining to everyone how important this is. This is no different. The threat is no different in two thousand and twenty four than it was in two thousand and twenty in terms of everything that we care about. Plus we have the added pressure of dobbs and the fact that women have been dismissed. acted by the united states supreme court in ways that were unimaginable to my dear departed mother, who worked most of her life, trying to make progress on issues like that. So what about the

and now, let's do the when you're, when you die, has to be haley again. If we're going to talk about these poll numbers- and I know we're going to talk to carnegie about them- that the khaki wonder here in a minute about the poll numbers and in looking inside the poll numbers, but when they do the head to heads and Biden is close with trump and frankly tied with dissenters, it wasn't like dissenters, was any better than trump in this poll, but then up jumps, nikki, haley, plus six by far a bigger lead, not quite outside them. in a but getting to that territory. That has to be a big win for her. That is what she needs to stay in. This re sad is what she needs her ability to be Joe Biden, much more when this pole than any of the other candidates, that's a big win for her and I guarantee as she's rightness horse. For more money and fund raising. I dont get her fundraising emails, but I guarantee you that you ve been flooded with this number and it certainly one she's gonna use

the ads in iowa and everywhere. This has to be a big win for her. It keeps her alive when she was on life support right ages. I mean she she's got one message in the end: we just need to beat Biden, I'm the one of the best chance to do it, but I mean I still feel like we don't know We do not know what's going to happen and we have seen crazier things happen than trump getting up ended in this republican primary. Although the whole report, in primary campaign, does kind of feel like fantasy football champion yeah. Like that's interesting, I'm interested to watch your debate. It has no bearing on who's going to bear the republican nominee correct, correct Alright, you know him, you love him. Sadly, you will not be able to see his khakis, but we are thrilled that Steve Carnegie is joining us right after the break to tell us what he is making of these most recent polls so stated

Hi this is our mlb we're living through an unprecedented moment in history for president trump facing criminal indictments and trials, and an MSNBC podcast asking donald trump bedroom prosecutors, Andrew Weissmann and Mary mccord break down the charges. What we could see at these trials search- prosecutor, donald trump, wherever you get your pod

hey everyone, I'm Tom llamas, from top story on NBC news now, every night top story is your newest playlist. We take you to the front lines of the story where it's actually happening with NBC news journalists on the ground from all over the world. We cover what you need to know and bring your news feed to life and now top stories available as a podcast. So you can listen anytime and anywhere subscribe now for new episodes every week now the the carnegie. This is very exciting. There's nothing! I love more than your big board, and now you don't have it today, but we're super excited to hear. Thank you so much for joining player. You've got some questions yeah. So my first question is: does anybody call you steve? my whole family, does yeah. Ok, ok, because it thirty rock and every time I'm around is always carnatic reenacted. Are you ok with carnegie

sure, you know what it's I graduated when I was about eight years old in my family from stevie to Steve. I liked that, but you wanna go the last named go with the last name, alright, so here's! What people need to understand is pole is a book. What we get on cable news of it, what we call the top lines, what you do with the big board, sometimes as you give a tantalizing glimpse into the inner workings of these Paul's by only now numbers and was called the cross tabs and far listeners cross tabs? Or so with central. I love cross taps, I'm weird I've gotta genetic defect, not as bad as deep chronology is, but I definitely have a genetic defect when it comes to us to the cross, tabs and reading them. Care flee for targeting and learning? What's going on when I would love you to talk about, steve is what, in the cross tabs was the best news for Joe Biden, and what in the cross, tabs was the worst news

for Joe Biden, the one cautionary note on cross tat, I think, just to start with the for anybody who starts looking at them is keep in mind. We are talking about cross ted you're. Talking about small groups within the overall policy, sample size, for these groups is going to be small. margin for error is gonna be higher? So I think the key anybody who was to be looking across tabs is it the accumulation over time? It's not just one poor, because one poor, really lead you astray on that. So that being said, what I see consistently. I would say the pulling this head trump and binding in a close races? That Biden has now been doing well to groups in particular both in terms of support in terms of motivation, and that is people of color

that's what you saw in the sea and then Paul? They didn't break it out black way, asian in a spanish but among people of color. They had Biden with the lead of just fifty eight to thirty four percent that would be weighed down from what it was in twenty twenty that would be weighed down from what it was been historically for democratic presidential candidate. Yet just let me interrupted her second, because I just want to give some perspective. There was never an election. I one that I didn't get over ninety percent the black vote in Missouri and to ensure that the question is is, as I say, it's not broken out this poll, but I think there is a sense. Yes, the black vote for democrats, which has been above eighty percent since the nineties, sixty four civil rights act, the election of goldwater vs Johnson, that it will land back in that zone. It was almost ninety per cent for Biden in in in twenty twenty. The question mark is the hispanic vote because saw that move drama equally away from the Democrats between twenty sixteen in when he twenty weeks

in education divide within the hispanic vote, this stuff turning to mirror what we see among white voters that could benefit republicans non college, educated hispanics, especially non college, educated hispanic males, you see that group becoming more republican friendly, more trump friendly, and there is the possibility that could continue in twenty twenty four. The other issue here, too, is non white turn out. Democrats were happy with how the twenty twenty two mid term is played out, but non white turnout was not great for them, and so the question is: can you get there turn out back up for twenty twenty? Four and again, when you look at motivation in these polls, ask for it since in the CNN poor how Motivated are you to vote the lowest score on that right now comes from people of color when you're talking about a white voters with cows degrees. It's ninety percent way vote

without cows degrees it. Eighty nine per cent, so there's a gap there, that's what we saw in twenty two does that persist twenty four? What about good news? Let's, let's not let the train leave the station without whatever silver I you can find donald trump negatives are extremely high in that's. Why democrats managed to have the successful mid term that they had in twenty twond to when you look at the races, the Democrats, one the key races that they want. Georgia is a perfect example of this. In twenty twenty two, there was a governors race. in camp republican running for re election, and there was a senate race, herschel walker, a challenging refugee warnock. Donald trump was politically at war with Brian camp. He because camp had signed off on the twenty twenty election result in georgia, trump recruited a chair

I am sure, to go after camp in the primary. The challenger former senator David Purdue was trounced in that primary camp had huge political distance from donald trump. Meanwhile, herschel walker was the candidate handpicked trump canada, close relationship between the two of them, and, if you look at georgia, lack turnout was down, but that group of white college educated voters, typically benny republican friend, constituency in georgia voted republican in both of those races and if you throw a generic republican at them, they're probably going to vote for the generic republican and they were comfortable with camp, because kemp was distant from trump, but they were not comfortable with Hershel walker, I would say, because Hershel walker was closely aligned with and tied to donald trump. So that's the hope for Democrats is that trump remains very unpopular with that type of voter, and it's a question of if it is a Biden trump raised, there's all sorts alive,

these were Biden. You are talking about them before does distaste for trump that we saw among those voters and twenty twenty two does that outweigh the distaste for Biden, weather John, the economy, whether it's on the age questions. All of that there is certainly the potential for that. What about on the indictments? You know. Nobody says that the indictments have helped tromp, and the republican contest is mostly by blocking out the sun. But have you seen evidence and pauline about how its impact in him for the general, particularly with independent voters? If you're a democratic thing That's what's probably most concerning to you about pulling your seeing right now again poem This far outweigh you. You were talking about its now, always that predictive and things can change Where are we right? Now we are coming off of four months of indictments of donald trump. major legal actions against trump, and yet, after months and months of that, being the headline story: you're looking at poles, essentially show in even general,

action match up. So I think, if you're a Democrat, that's probably just big picture- that's the most concerning thing to you that it hasn't move folks away and frankly for europe. trumps opponents. We are hoping to dominate somebody besides trump. That's a huge concern for two, because all those republican candidates were counting on these four months to be the four months. They convinced republican voters that hey you know, maybe I like donald trump, I think he's been getting a raw deal, but the guy can't win. His opponents were counting on that added to taking and it really seems like the exact opposite taken place now feels like that ship sailed Some people may hear what you have just said and thing. Doesn't that mean that the buyer campaign should be talking more about trump and how dangerous it is? But I don't think that's right. I think right now. What you need to be doing is talking to the voters that don't know all the things that you have done on the economy there

don't know the accomplishments, don't even that, don't understand that there has been bipartisan accomplishments, that the government can work and can produce results for you. Your vote met something in twenty twenty. I feel like that's kind of what they need to be doing now, but steve just for the last question. Does pope recently at Iowa that showed trumps support, dropping some What do you make of that? Yet again a I. I take it with a grain of salt look. The bottom line is as if donald trump is going to be stopped in the republican primaries. I really do think it has start in iowa somebody has to beat him in iowa, and then it's got be that slingshot effect were suddenly trump looks vulnerable away. He doesn't now and back It then zooms up in new hampshire, maybe wins. New Hampshire exists, a one it never happened for donald trump in two thousand and sixteen on his march to the republican nomination. He never lost two major contests in a row. He had a couple of big losses. He always followed them up with a win. He never looked at that.

Vulnerable. If somebody could beat him in iowa and then parlay into new hampshire trump would be an uncharted territory. Ok! Well, I think that. likelihood of that happening is the same as me: winning the lotto so I'll go buy a ticket today, Steve. Thank you so much, and we going to call you Steve Stevie, that's so cute That's some truth that I won't tell you stevie, assuring azure malaria without being very much in its wake. Lang here, really appreciated more how to win. Twenty twond for in just a moment.

I'm msnbc alley. Velvety a book banning epidemic is inflow trading, our classrooms with fifteen hundred titles band. Last year alone, each week on my part, gasped bell. She band book club, a different author joins me to discuss their band book like Margaret atwood, glory, halts anderson and many more using blocks. That's how we share wisdom, our values, that's how we take our country to the place. It should be listened to veil she'd, been book club now on spotify new weapons on thursday. Get the best of MSNBC all in one place every day each morning in your inbox with the MSNBC daily use understand today's news sign up for MSNBC daily MSNBC darker it's interesting clare about iowa. If trump loss I mean there are a lot of sport, republicans that are trying to stop trump and they think you have certain iowa

That's why you see all of these ads in iowa that are anti trump ads, saying he can't win, etc. That's why all the republicans against trump everybody's doing that, so the theory is he loses in iowa. Maybe Chris Christie pulls some sort of miracle in new hampshire leg. What do you think? I dont think frankly, that it's gonna work in iowa we'll see, but the one thing I was struck by an hour, conversation with carnegie was the motivation of black voters to vote and twenty twenty four, and particularly in georgia, and one thing he didn't talk It is we had rafi warnock on the ballot. That was a big deal. Terms it getting black vote out. So what would it be in twenty twenty four to get the black vote really motivated in georgia, and I gotta tell you, I think, trump going after finding plus is gonna, help, is consistently and constantly called. her name's and dragging her and dick seen her

and she is a really accomplish prosecutor, a professional, and that has got to great on the nerves of black voters in georgia. and not that she would ever respond or become political about that she shouldn't. But I do think that will help motivate the black voters in georgia to vote against on trumped next year. That's interesting. I have heard you not gregg blue stained lands, euro constitution or porter that continent pretty well. I eat he does talk about how much she is respected in georgia and like just what a force she is so that isn't it the point we're going to turn to a segment we're calling spotlight where each week we will zero in on a down ballot, race, a person or issue that may not be getting as much attention as it deserves. Clever. You have a lot of great ideas for fun. Segments too, Do that not think the virginia legislative elections will certainly be one of these topics and use that to choose as to what we can expect on

election day. Anything to share on spotlights to come. Well, we got lost spotlights to come. I think we got about fund raising. I think we need to talk about no labels. I think we need to talk about Joe mansion kirsten cinema and whether there are play for the middle We have handed or adroit and tactical all that I think we ve got lots of stuff to spotlight, but today I think there is one guy who deserves the spotlight more than in the other guy, because it is on him and it couldn't be brighter, and that is poor old Kevin Mccarthy he is to use and and ladylike term. He is screwed and I would rather be in solitary confinement in rikers than Kevin Mccarthy for the next thirty days. That's how bad he's gonna have it, and I think I gotta tell you that with the economy makes me smile. I know I shouldn't because it's our government and we need it to function, but he did this. He put himself in this,

position nobody's responsible, but him he sold out to the fringe element in his party and now they have the steering wheel and their fixin to run over him, and now he is going to welcome and impeachment inquiry into Biden and no white house actually wants to be impeached. Ok, I worked for president Clinton. That was not something we want. It is also true that brooklands highest of overriding ever was seventy three percent. Seventy three percent- and it was the week after the republican house, impeached him and then this impeachment inquiry. I mean there was wrong doing by president Clinton. There was something to look into, this is the evidence. Free impeachment inquiry and by dollar says. Don't compare me of the almighty. Compare me turn the alternative and the mega world

in the house publican house is taking over and it is giving that that's going to be a great contrast for Biden but like what else is not justice. Impeachment query: yeah. The impeachment inquiry is a road to medical liability for the Republicans. I believe that they're gonna try to subpoena financial records and either Those financial records are going to prove out what most americans firmly believe at this point, that is, his son, had bad judgment and dead stuffy shouldn't have done playing on the name of his father and the position of his father, but the Joe Biden had no involvement in it. The other thing that is going to be more promptly I think in the next thirty days is whether or not they can keep the government open and there is the reality, and people need to remember this Kevin Mccarthy.

Can only lose for votes for votes and the republican party and get anything past, and he's got more than four that want to remove him as speaker at this point and what they're all saying is it? he goes to democrats for a short term, cr and so people understand. Cr is basically a resolution that allows the government to operate, as is for another period of time to kick can down the road to actually get the debt ceiling agreement and to get there creation, and all of that done so if he goes to democrats to get a see, are if he goes to democrats to keep the government open. That is what, These fringe republicans are saying will be the deal breaker frame being speaker, so we could get a too, for we could get a double scooper here. We could get mccarthy facing

impulsion as speaker. At the same time the government shuts down and that's when the confetti in the balloons will drop for the democratic party. I look to see how Kevin Mccarthy's team is handling this, and I saw that Eric counter who was a former republican whip of the house. He did an interview with politico to explain all the reasons why a shut down is bad politics for republicans right Eric cantor's and do a lot of press. He did that because cover mccarthy asked to write, and then he said like this is a loser. Any party that has started a shut down loses politically because of it, and you know it's very easy to vote to shut something down and it's really hard to get it back open and the thing with these guys that they just don't have any sort of exit strategy. Because they can have any exit strategy and its the same reason, why you no good for hayley thy, she can beat Joe Biden and

radical head to head based on who we think Nikki Haley is but she's in the same cul de sac as everybody else right I mean it's like to get any traction in the republican party you have to give in to the maga wing. That is what mccarthy is doing on the shutdown. That is what mccarthy Mccarthy's doing on the impeachment, but to actually accomplish anything to actually win you can The captive to the mega wing you're in the Democrats have to be really disciplined here and they have to have a really strong, clear message as every day over and over again rep titian is their best friend. The republicans are threatening to shut down the government, the republicans are shutting down the government and, secondly, Kevin Mccarthy doesn't know how to make a deal, because what they're asking him to do is to the deal he made with the present a united states just a few months ago. They may a deal on spending, and now what did the the fringe of his party is wanting him to do is to go back on his word. So that is not

for them either, especially with those swing, voters and independent voters. So a deal's a deal doesn't apply anymore if you're, the republicans and, by the way, their perfectly happy shutting down. The government, which is gonna, be chaos for a lot of people, not just federal employees, so I hope disciplined? I hope we don't get off on other issues. Why Kevin Mccarthy is in this tenuous position, because I do think tactically, it will help us win and twenty twenty four. I think the house Democrats will be disciplined about that. I spent some time with leader jeffreys in their house. Damn leadership and they are concerned about the shut down. They understand that this is not good, jeffreys always says in the trump era and the mega era, when you went to break through simplicity, repetition, what's the principle at stake and keep repeating and keep repeating that, I think the house Democrats will understand. They know what their role is here same role. They did the debt of both the executive that really well. They do things that speak or mccarthy, more main speaker, mccarthy,

the clear I dunno I dunno, but it's going to who can get to a date? If not him, you know I'm gonna tell ya, I I mean I'm going to have my buttered popcorn and diet coke. I know it makes no sense that it is who I am. I sometimes make no sense watch this and we will be able to talk about it in the future. It is great that we have this opportunity. ec stuff down like this, and hopefully we will have some fun in the process and hopefully people will join as as we ride the roller coaster on how to win in two thousand and twenty four super fun. Thank you. Jen yeah super fun thanks very much, and thanks for listening the senior producer for this show is alisha calmly. Our technical director is bryson, barnes are oddy, engineer is aaron dalton jessica shreck is our segment producer. Chimeras Perez is the associate producer. I e should turner

is the executive producer for MSNBC, audio and rebecca cutler. Is the senior vice president for content strategy at MSNBC? Search for when twenty twenty four, wherever you get your podcast and follow the series the. A moment, of course, by american nations if your business throws problems where the insurance company, that's here, with solutions american national property and casualty company and affiliates springfield misery