Welcome to the Mccarthy report. I guess where I rich worry, discuss with Andy Mccarthy, the latest leo and national security issues this week. What else the dissatisfied depend on ukraine for some reason, you're not already find some streaming service by the way you everywhere for spotify to please give this part gaston, Andy Mccarthy, the glowing indeed gushing iced our views they deserve on itunes. Now a further do I I come to this very podcast through the miracle riverside, none other than any party rachel warrior, I'm good science does sound a little rough getting getting out. is called feeling better, but but not sounding much better use great rich Thank you,

was here in the beautiful love. I could it's been no spin great road trip yeah lobo called reuben called, but you know gorgeous day yesterday. Baseball's been great, so can't complain much work to be home, watching the world baseball classic and seeing the mets team disintegrate before they employ. Single game clothing. I am father, sent me getting hurt the apparently d, as yesterday he may be for the seas it, but he hurt himself celebrating one quarter, rico apparently defeated the dominican republic and thus operation got out of hand. I was kind of reminded rubber years ago there was a quarterback who used to play for the giants, but he's playing for the redskins and he scored a touchdown

in the celebration he banged his head. That has beginning with the helmet on into the stands and the guy like never played again we got a negative honey But what I heard yesterday about Diaz, maybe an achilles thing they had to wheelchair I'm off. You and it was- he- was lying with pursue, celebrating kelly. That's that bad. I once had terror mike catholics- which was actually a celebration. Injuries is a classic old man, injury very embarrassing, the yankees adjust. clenched the serious against the indians. Eleven thirty at night. I'm the only one open and our small manhattan apartment, and I I jump like half an inch and self and I feel this rolling sensation the bought all my leg as all my gosh them kelly's. Because that's what am I says, you feel the role now, it's just a real bad calf. Airbus is embarrassing, haven't like crawl

the bedroom and tell your wife, you just can't walk ass. You re like facebook next year, at these terrible ankle injuries, all my life cause, I used to play basketball and, as a kidnap too, like top heavy with skinny legs, but I once twisted my ankle. showing my son, how I twisted my ankle, my elastic, which was the most embarrassing, but my favorite, my favorite achilles thing is a member Kobe Brian blew out his, but he went to the line and hit the two free throws before they, I am darling, the political news this week, another tucker karlsson, related development. asked candidates for statements on ukraine, a lot of them provided them, including some surprise, and I think to santa I think it would be best for him just to pass on this for now, but is

early, extensive statements, the more I look at it in the cold light of day, I don't think it really says anything but the mood music is very much. I intervened last and we're gonna take up the topic of ukraine an absurd, or two ago you wrote column objecting to the one year anniversary, editorially ram, crane at an hour. So, let's what's that, this around. What would personal? When do you think that sad statement? Well, I really think on the whole, like you say, it is not right. Much there and this certainly not anything there that enforceable in any way I'm not I'm not is

against the idea that he ought to be you're not taking up an invitation from talk as you are, I hear what you're saying, but I am also I'm kind of sympathetic to what dan wrote about this. I think I saw this yesterday, where you know de santos, is obviously got trump on the brain, there's polling that says that you know trumpets extended. His lead over dissent, as I think we're gonna see this go back and forth for, while, although I think it will be interesting to see what the reaction trumps starts, getting indicted in various places is cause. I don't think those two things can be pride apart, but that's that's a separate issue

but you don't. The scientists needs to the scientist, wants to have the support of any of the the the trompe maga crowd. That's that's persuadable. Some of them are obviously stuck with trump. There. There are others who can be peeled away. and you know look D, ukraine war, whatever you, whatever you think of it as an objective matter. As far as american support for the ukraine war is concerned, it high water mark. I want to say around may after the right invasion and its significance lay down since then it markedly down across the board is significant, lay down on the republic itself Now some of that is because its now obviously is perceived as bindings baby and There is a natural, I think,

does a natural impulse on our side to brush against it. Just because he, running it, and the other thing is, I think, Biden, wall street journal editorial made this point, but the particularly resonates with me after the yet. Democracy, building, debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan, Biden being left no matter how much you now, you know, pretends he's a he's he's now with centrists for the last five minutes right after governing from the left a result term, but he continues to talk about ukraine in terms of every thing imaginable other than american interests so it's all about, like the crusade for democracy in all, so he's not explaining why it in why b, the post? world war. Two

international order, serves american interests and why we have a particular interest in making sure that the norm remains too, that the big powers can swallow up to the territory of small powers and how that's You know how the history here is You know this: it's not only in american interests that we have a free trading internet order. But, If we allow, without punitive measures if we allow what russia has done in ukraine to become if not at least you know something, that's not only ordinary, then that's very bad

american national security in the history here is that eventually will end up in a war. That's going to be much more costly than what we currently doing. So I dont think you know if, if Biden wants to rally the whole country behind what he's doing in ukraine, first of all, these gonna have to have a better vision, what he wants to see happen in ukraine, and how long it's all gonna take, but also he's gotta talk about it in terms of american interests, rather than this year. We I uh democracy stuff. I agree. I agree with that. I think the problem is what the the terms in which Biden is defending, what we're doing it's just it's the way every president speaks You know that about foreign interventions, no one can do just the cold cold. I'd thing, toys were saving democracy and, I think, is reduced so think were saving democracy, that this step roy

who could win in ukraine and next I would still be flawed, but it moxie, Canada would still be well. I guess maybe ten, not technically democracy in his eyes out actually collapse overnight and all sorts of stable societies, because of that sets my where I am in ukraine are not and in favour of defending and abstract principles, and I don't think it's realistic that that abstract principles will be deferred. Did much. You know maybe has an effect on on the way china thinks about taiwan, which potentially important but a few. in germany, had a territorial dispute, if they're, both liberals, ah crises and one decided to invade the other. They wouldn't be here, takes. We wouldn't want that to happen. We wanted negotiate an end as quickly as possible. But I think it's it's it's revenge is nature of russian power. That's the the thread and dumb. That's that's that's. Why that's? Why I'm an on board what we're doing, but also

It's also national just to talk in terms of victory, but they're not gonna, be ukrainian victory. I mean they're, not gonna, marched to moscow and pop toppled too. which is the only way this ultimately with stop so up. My take it as I wrote in account for political couple weeks ago, convince burden that he can at more a negotiating table than he can on the battlefield- and maybe we're not compelled to do that, but that's the goal, and then you get an ancestor, satisfactory settlement and I'm proof want to take the un's s, suspect, resettlement and and see russia had made small territorial gains in this because the conflict Health is bad and it would be better if it it stopped. I don't want to stop on on russian terms. You I think I am I agree with most of that. I I I think it's him, in terms of like the abstract principles, to Remember that not the people are history buffs any more to the extent they ever work, but

You know the cold war ended in. In eighty nine to ninety one that area and it's not in the living memory of a lot of people. Today, whereas the iraqi enough gas, then or envy? You know the folly, which has been it's been very costly for the united states of trying to erect democratic societies in places that were hostile to the west is something I think that in the front of the mines. people who follow this sorta thing and and as a result, while you may be right that historically it you know, presidents always talk about. You know democracy. That may be the case, but you know we're in a different historical context. Right now, where you know the the thing that was the the most recent.

Ass there were american foreign policy was allowing the boy doctrine I am. I have written a piece for the magazine about this, we're about to mark the twentieth anniversary of the iraqi invasion, but I think the the transformation of the bush doctrine, which I am still a believer in. You know this idea that you with us with the terrorists allowing that to morph into a sociological experiment and ensuring democracy was a catastrophe and it cost us a lot and it in the reverberations other continue still. You know we haven't talked much lately about Biden's debacle in Afghanistan, but still a debacle, and we have jihadist organisations that have a working partnership with a government in afghanistan, which what brought nine eleven to war road toward doorstep back when so you know, I think that when one I didn't

I don't think he intends to do this, but when he talks about you, don't do it. Policy rather than american interests. playing right into the but the populace argument against stir against any intervention, and you know the the, argument against intervention as default is a super argument, because american too many interests in the world, and I think we just we ve gotten so far away from it, and this really started after nine eleven, because I think we're were solicitous of of islamic sensibilities and also trying to keep muslim regime's on our side, but weep we ve forgotten, had talk about a man can interests, and and behold, the only one who talks about american interests is trump and he doesn't always have a good grasp-

what they are, but the mere fact that he's the one who is doing it almost you don't do that popular media. It makes it the disreputable to do it, but I think what we learned, I think rich and we We argued about this a lot during the war on terror. I I was particularly sensitive to it, pushing against the democracy project at but the lesson Whatever you think of the democracy project is the american people, are willing to be so supportive of a war as long as it takes and as much as it takes as long as they believe that american national security in american vital interests are at stake? If you don't pigeon that way, you lose them and what we learned in Iraq is we can't

sustain a war with a man. American forces in the field. If there's not domestic support for so we're not talking about a venture with in ukraine, where its. it's obviously a red line that we're not even get. We can't even embraced the possibility of putting american forces in because the public is dead, set against it. The very unpopular war, if Biden in that direction, but the lesson still remains. If you dont pitch this, as you know where this broke country, that's gotta, don't cry This is now has a banking crisis has. A military recruitment crisis, has a munitions crisis has a what its building crisis, is planning to brood. has agreed to give weaponry. Informer tanks to Ukraine

but we're not going to get around to it for for two years who the hell knows? Whether the you know that will even still be in the field, years from now, and we denounced the august deal this week. Will deliver submarines that Australia, sometimes each twenty thirty five and twenty forty nine there you know- I thought I'd say it's a couple, a couple things to one that obviously you're right, that iraq, no shadow. A thing There are a lot of people who are supported. Recognition at least initially regretted it. And now they're like what does not do this, because we interact with the two different things: yeah, we're we're not directly and it's here. Nor nor should we be, were spending and their costs of that, and you know just It's your dollar matters a lot and then you get to the the the the fact that our defense industrial base is a joke

so a running low on stuff. I think the answer is to to get a better defence industrial base. But let me let me ask you this: I had his back and forth with them amby d and and you may objective the way I'm characterizing his position so that caveat up front, I'm not doing it deliberately but as like. Go so you not like bypasses. So what? What would you do when you cut cut off the ukrainians are where is like? Well, you know, I'd I'd, modulator support such that you know the ukrainians man, I can't really when anne and then they have come to the table. I think, as is basically what he said, but not my point. Is that if you score in the ukraine's you might as well support them such that they can really push back, because if you do half what we're doing now and the end, you know, in russia takes stiff pushes fifty miles forward. I don't think they're gonna stop and also the nature of of military operations. You might have a breakthrough in mit back at at keys, so

so, where? How would you on said, say you? You have the you're you're sitting and that the office? What what? What do you do? What you do differently. Well I I mean I'm not where I I have. No, with ukraine, winning very sympathetic to loudly arguments that anybody has made, but my my main thing is you know, russia's an enemy of the united states, and I am happy to bleed them afghanistan style for as long as it takes Suddenly we did that former nineteen, seventy nine to nineteen. Eighty, nine! I think from our standpoint and it's it's hard to tell about this in a cold calculated way when people are dying in the tens of thousands of deaths on each side and there is likely to be

maybe a couple of million by the time. This is all said and done if it is said and done in any you know any time soon, but in terms of the american national interests. I think russia's been exposed as a much weaker. Military power, obviously it's a nuclear power, but you know in terms of the the four mit ability of its of it's conventional forces they've been exposed. I don't think it's going to keep, up at night. Do you know this idea that if Russia you europe manages to to when some territorial conquest in ukraine, when, when the dust settles here that will have to are worry about them. You know rolling into NATO countries next. I just think that's absurd. You know that obviously, there sustained

tremendous damages and their their capability to do that. Just I mean it seems to me obviously, but it's not fair or so I just think we have to be realistic about what this is doing. Russia. Russia has been very weakened by this, and its of it after continue to be weakened by it, because it looks to me like The ukrainians are willing to fight, and I think is honesty, ukrainians are willing to fight. I would continue to give them support. Because not that I'm a big pro ukraine person, I'm not, but I do think that we duped ukraine. Not duped is the wrong word, because I don't think we did it on purpose. But we at least induced ukraine to I rest itself of its nukes back in the early nineties nineties and then

MR obama and richard luger when they were in the senate. We induced him to divest a lot of their conventional weaponry in two thousand sex, so that was all done on the premise even though it wasn't a treaty was at least something we. We it meant we made, and we ought to try to honour those kind of commitment to the extended its practical. To do that, we made a commitment that if they did what we persuaded them to do, namely you know disarm themselves, but we would be their security guarantor. So I think to some we we have a moral obligation to to fulfil that, but we have to do it Mindful of what we are current capable of what, threatened threat. Environment is an

how much how much we have in the way of resources and what I'm concerned about is that we're not at the moment able to replenish the the munitions we ve already given them well in terms of our own national security, depleted in very important ways. Only a poor from the recruitment crisis, which is which is a whole another problem. I just just strict materiel, where we have a problem with, and my simple question is this idle: if if there was a We decide that russia's biddable here. If we were to hand give the ukrainians you conventional weapons, That would allow them in in a finite period of time, to roll russia back. You know if there were. Military experts have convinced me that I would be I'll be open to doing that, but it looks too

You like this conflict could go on work five or more years on the pasted its currently we're already in force somewhere between a hundred billion in two hundred billion. We said in the editorial that we should not only maintain that level, but we should increase it. Ok, fine. What gonna cut. Or are we saying that this is such an important thing to the united states that we will continue to borrow despite the straits that wherein and the the group. Growing economic crisis that we have here, it seems to me, like what were were willing to say yes, well back them, but we That's what we're not willing to think through like how much will we back back them, given the other things on our plate, including try to prevent from invading taiwan and including rich enough. The fact that we could have a war in the Middle east like any second, depending on

How things go there, that's becoming more of powder keg, There's a lot of what's going on on the chess board and we're looking a lot into ukraine and I'd be again. I'd be, but I'd be open to the idea that We had a surge in support that we could pertinent that we could so hurt the rush that they would be willing to come to the table, an agreed arms that we would find acceptable and that the ukrainians- willing to to to settle on But I dont see that right now That's it then I'd my weekend that strike, I know Just think that we have to be. You know there's a finite amount of support that we can give these guys because this is not a conflict. That's on our doorstep. If russia, you know winds were already pretty

conceding that we don't russia to be rolled out of crimea right and we don't directed to be rolled out of everywhere in the east. So we are already taking the position that ukraine's now get all of its territory So now we're talking about how much europe, which in and of itself is, is a confession that a completely territorially intact. Ukraine is not a vital american interests. Could we ve already decided that it's not a vital amount every that so the quest is how much how long is there more is there more than we can do on the budget that whereon, where, if we gave or even increasing- budget that we're on but We searched it that it would like either feed the russians are roll them back so much that they would be willing to come to the table. I am open to that idea

But if that's not ought if, if that's not there, then I think we have to talk about how much we willing to do over how long problem is, as a window for that might have been, might have passed, it might have been the first year and where we should have just given up no delays give gimme, basically everything they asked ass forth with within reason, and- and maybe in a different situation, but it looks as though potentially you and as an hour or so weaken to that that that there are limits step to how much they will cut off as their offensive they're going to be able to have here in the spring, but will will will underway on that front and a couple months, I'm glad you said that, though, because I think you know what the things that is going to have to be talked about when this is, I hope, to be taught now. This is a monumental intelligence. Failure on our part, I I think the it certainly they're gonna lose

that their we're gonna get rolled over ivy Biden first impulse was to offer. Xo and ski a ride out of their right. I've been network that was a week but they will get a role right over the first, it was going to be a minor incursion and then once they started, we were convinced that they're gonna get rounded. So I'd, never understood why anyone, including the present I mean why he would idiotically say a minor incursion might be. Ok is just mind boggling, but what on earth did we think it is very clear firstly to marshal. You know a hundred, two hundred thousand forces around the country russia was doing in the months before this happened. What on made us think that they weren't serious and they were bluffing. I big that wasn't a bluff, so I just think you a week we spend rich on on. intelligence community.

it's a mind, boggling some. Money, even the port, that's like sort of disagreement from the rest of the defence budget. That's just like pure intelligence activities, and I think we find time after time after time, when a critical, judgment has to be made, which being very consequential for years of american history, we get, we get it wrong. I don't know you do about that. So far too quick plugs two things and our plus, if you're, not already a member. Please sign up your away to get past our meter, pay war and a view or content unobstructed, not just by the pay all but by of noxious and annoying ads and two, if you want to see Annie, Mccarthy, in discussion with the real professional, not an amateur layman like myself.

The great former attorney general bill bar sign up for the national institute idea. Some couple weeks here down a wash Do you see thursday march thirtieth and friday, the thirty first, as there are thirty first march, I think there is but there's like great content, Tom COD. I will be there of a vague will, be there my pants we'll be there and many many others. You can find out more at an hour institute, dot, org, that's an art, institute, dot, org a stimulating discussion and also some wonderful fellowship. We make friends at these. These events in any is made a lot of smart. Like minded people so and it looks like and that the first indictment shoe is going to drop and pretty soon here we have, this grand jury going in new york over the stormy Daniels. It's like a time capsule kind of thing at great

like all the anderson cooper episodes of michael nottingham of brilliant lawyer in america, the trump had an affair with her, He denies it on a very unconvincing grounds and then for this hush money and If you didn't believe you had the affair, I think when there is instead to doubt trumps denials it gives pretty sparing with money payments and it wasn't was paying hush money to anyone. One of us there is good legitimate reason to do it. So this would be. The offence would be falsifying business wreckers with which is misdemeanor. But then, then, if you get it to bootstrap it up to a felony by saying you know it was in the service of some other crime, which I guess is some some sort of camp, in finance violation, but how how a minute, let's start off, which is that the time mechanics of how a minute you think this is good reason to

it gets very eminent like within days. In fact, I thought were talking on thursday and I thought rich. We might be talking about the indictment, the way the butt and I'll I'll get into why, but before I do, I I need to give you. props here, because we have this running disagreement, about whether prosecutions of trump help trump or her trump. in my view, that is, overall, it will hurt trump because I just think it but the few mutilation of it and the unpredictability of it and the likelihood that they'll be more rather than less ultimately, well, where on our voters, and hopefully make republicans wary about him but I think, in the short run, this is so B. S case that if this is what they can fly, and I bought the box with they are going to its going to help tromp because dares

its undeniable no one who wasn't donald trump would ever be charged They would never do an investigation for this. This is a misdemeanor george and the only way it becomes a felony, as you just mentioned, is it in the bud. and what we're talking about, as you said, is falsifying business record. So just I know gone over the stormy, Daniel thing, in entire, but just to give people analysis of what the cases about trump through michael pays a hundred and thirty thousand dollars to stormy Daniels. His real name is Stephanie clifford on the eve of the twenty sixteen election for a flying that they had ten years before and as you say, I'm on

somewhat inclined to believe that that probably happen as it is not as tight as as did the contemporaneous flying with that was Macdougall name whose name I always whose first I am. I always get confused with the Susa macdougall, but you're not It happened at around the same time. We should point out. But that also was like a bad one hundred and forty thousand dollar deal but prosecutors. Less interested in the macdougall deal than the stormy deal, because trunk didn't pay for the macdougall the deal that was here. by his pals at the national inquirer who basically bought the exclusive rights to the story and buried right. So what prosecutors are focused on is the stormy deal and the reason that they are focused on it is cohen, lays out this hundred and thirty thousand dollars,

being cohen. He of course says right afterwards, when this came to light that you know trunk didn't have anything to do with He did it out, the goodness of his heart, which puts him in the trick bag for potential campaign finance violations with which the sudden, district of new york federal prosecutors- that's how they got involved in this case in the first instance, but they dropped the case against trump in part. I think, because it's much harder to prove a campaign, I frankly, I'm not sure that it really was a campaign. Finance violation is too common. I think he plug guilty to because he was trying to get a deal with this. The district and they wanted you, don't they try to get trump so they let him too it's like we we talked about. Frequently during the more investigation, you want to get the cooperative to plead guilty to the same crime that you want to charge against the other guy. Because you're a leg up with the jury. If you get some,

it get on the sand and say this crime happened. Then I committed it and I committed it with him. So haven't district was obviously trying to build a campaign finance case against tromp. The problem is it probably wasn't even a campaign finance case. It gets cohen for reasons that are com, carried, that we don't need to get into other to say it's even harder to put the to build a campaign. Finance case against the principle. The candidate, because There is no real spending limits on the cannon it as their resign on somebody who contribute to the candidate. Now, there's two hours baxter campaign, finance one- is how but you're allowed to donate The second is how it gets reported, so trump did have. problem with how this gets reported. But the southern district decided that There wasn't a case there and you know you have to prove that there was a violation in the first place and then you get it.

Whether they reported accurately to the apc sets out a campaign. Violations have been reporting violation like miss characterisation of this or that one didn't account for it at all. If you, If you decided that it was an incline contribution, it would be a contribution crime as to calling, because he was stuck with. It was a twenty three hundred dollars, I think was was the back back then, and this is hundred hundred and thirty grand right so have they said this, in fact, our contribution to the campaign correct and with respect to trump he's. because he was the candidate he can it does not dollar limit on how much he can contribute to his own campaign, but it still has to be blocked. Accurate, you can spend as much as you want, but you have to report accurately to the apc. So that day, They had gotten trump on this. It would have been on the reporting end of it but they couldn't nervousness outside Europe just difficult owed it to us.

just aggregate, whether he's doing spending the money just it to keep maloney from finding out as opposed to helping its campaign year that end It's important that you bring that up, because that's going to be the issue that the new york prosecutors have the southern, just The size of this is such a crappy case. They drop it and I have said many times having been you know, twenty years in that office, they don't give up cases to the state if they especially gets a sexy defendant. If they think this case there, but they decided that you know they made an assessment of what there was their evidence wise and they also. Decided if you're gonna build a case on my oh cohen, who they adjust convicted of a bunch of fraud, crimes that the most promising start to you not to take a walk at dropped, so they they dropped the case the new york county prosecutors, manhattan district attorney pick up the case. What they are hoping, rich

really that the mother lode that would justify doing this case would be the trump financial records that cyrus vance went up to the supreme court twice to get right and then they get the those records and they decide that there's no criminal smoking gun there, even though tis James then took it did, her rubbed her her civil complying with it, so they are left with, is the thing they started with, which you stormy, Daniels and alvin brag, be progressive prosecutor who runs the DA's office was ready to walk away from this case a year ago, but he at mau mau by the left into maintaining it. They've called this. The zombie case, because you know it seems to die a million times, and it keeps coming back, which means it's gotten even more stay. I mean we now talking and twenty twenty three about an arrangement that was struck in twenty? Sixteen about a fling that happened in two thousand six, but what

I've been here, is on pay the money and then he seeks reimbursement from trunk they pay him through the trump organization combine the payment of stormy with something else that he laid out for raw cyber help for the campaign they double it so that they do because what they call that is my taxing up, so that they could completely pay him. Without having to work, reduce it for tax reasons and men They pay him over a period of twelve months in installments, in about four hundred and thirty thousand divided by twelve, whatever. That is trop sign, trunk himself signed. Some of the checks one of them, they think, was actually signed in the white house, but the payments go from, I want to say, like early, Twenty seventeen until early twenty eighteen,

This is why, by the way, they still within the statute of limitations, which is, I think, five years for this crime. So they carry the payments as basic legal fees to Michael Cowan rather than as settlement abode of a civil claim. So you know that they arguably have not documented accurately on the books? But the books would be. kept by Alvin weissenburg. Who is the you know that the g financial officer of the trump organization and he has claimed, even though the Manhattan DA's office has been squeezing him for years, claimed any number ties. The trunk didn't know how they bought it. Though, he was in charge of that even discuss it withdraw so You have a situation where, if they ve, you know they have Weisgerber who was convicted in the tax case against the trump organization.

That was a minor set of offences. He got like five month sentence. They had been sitting in right to have the seventy six year old man sitting in bikers island because Detroit, to get him to get his mind right about. You know whether he discussed booking this serve booking this thing with with the trump or not the payments to the current searches. ways. I think it's a squeeze. Why would you have this guy in rikers? I mean that's the thing he got convicted of most people wouldn't even be prosecuted, for they get him a fight. One sentence? They usually have some kind of alternative disposition: new york, it's tried to let everybody out of rikers island right right there telling you that you know like if you're a gang banger, you don't belong in rikers island, because it's a racial issue weissenburg, he could sit there right, so there are obviously squeezing em, but even

let's say he changed his tomb, they would have to disclose it discovery the eight million times he said trump had nothing to do with it. So you don't you your two main witnesses in this case are Michael Cohen and you know Alan weissenburg. If they brought him around and stormy great europe, what a lineup so the we think that charges may be imminent is because, unlike the federal system where you're allowed to use here say in the gut and jury in the state system. we have to bring the witnesses in to test there are limits there are strict limits to how much you here say you can use in the grand jury so Typically, in a state investigation, even collins testified a million times is justified and in congress is justified for the southern district, blah blah blah. They to put him in the grand jury undertaking to bring this case. He was.

the grand jury this week, the The thing to state typically does is they ask? But target of a grand jury investigation. If he would like to come in to testify to try to talk to, grand jury, basically out of returning they invited donald trump in to testify early this week, I think, on Monday, his lawyers. I think it was Joe tack. Pina in this instance, put out a statement saying he is not going to testify the manhattan grand jury. That's that is it for thinking that the charges are imminent, because these are things you do with the very end. You know don't bring the you, don't bring the targeted at the beginning of each. You bring him in at the end. So presumably now that they coal in the grand jury and story in the grand jury and trump declining to come into the grand jury. done everything they need to do to make a decision whether to seek an indictment,

The problem with the case other than you know the witnesses and that stuff that have just laid out is falsifying records in new york is a misdemeanor the only It becomes a felony is if the prosecutors prove beyond reasonable doubt that the defended intended to conceal another. Crime being committed by the falsification of the records, and in this instance what you would have to prove. is that there was some other crime that trot knew about it and that that that's the reason they put it away To my mind, I'm not even sure you can prove that trot knew how they booked it at the big problem they have is the one that you later at the beginning, which is that the law we heard here is the truck- was trying to conceal things. That would

personally embarrassing, rather than something and he had done that he believed- was criminal and on that score, I should point out that not disclosure agreements even though they are described in dark terms in the media are perfectly legal and there are also a staple of civil. irrigation. Very often we get these settlements in civil cases, and we never even get to find out You know how much money change, hands was. What we hear is that there was a settlement, some we changed hands, nobody alex wrongdoing and everything is under seal and that time and time again those non disclosure raymond arrangement sacred they are generally done not to conceal closeness but to conceal embarrass seeing details he tells that would be against the most of the people involved. They became public. So there's nothing

all us about having having done an agreement like this on non disclosure terms, how you book it It is obviously important under new york state law and it a b that it's against the law to book, something as legal fees when it's not legal fees. But this it would have to prove another crime to make this a four year. Felony it's been suggested that the other crime is a campaign, finance violation idle me and think that's eligible one to new york law, because campaign finances a federal violation and I think the we sensible way to read the new york statute is when they talk about concealing, and this is a quote from the statute. Another crime with it. That is a new york crime, because That's what the new york penal code is about,

it's not clear what on earth do your crime you're? Maybe its attacks crime? Maybe you know some kind of it's hard to say, but it's not clear what new york crime trunk I've been trying to conceal and again they'll come up with some arcane crime and trumps. And so I will say well, no, he didn't they just like you said: he'd want mulatto, unified europe so, and I think that's even though you gotta figure that a manhattan jury is not gonna, like tramp tramp, very good lawyers on this, you know there's a lot of times. I think when trump has not been well served by his legal counsel. He's got top flight defence lawyers this case will do a very good job and I see them convicting m of Seventy on this, so it's gonna look terror. I mean it's gonna look like so they were they arrest him.

I don't think so. I I would imagine that run for study probably ride for study. It is a very good defence lawyer whose trumps lawyer here Joe tack subpoenas, also good defence lawyer Sure they've had discussions with the DA's office that if they take any action, they will invite trump to come in and be processed They are not gonna wanna tat idea, I mean so What does that mean? Trump has to come to new york and yeah. He'll have you know you'll have to france and get will there be a much ass? Yes, Now, don't you know, there's some laws in new york about how much you are allowed to disclose of all that in substance the mugshots are available in some shut in some states. They're not But yes, I've been he'd have to be he's, not the law. He would have to be he's. Not look, he's not below the law either, and I make that point.

Cause, no one else would be prosecuted for this. It's preposterous to think anything else. I mean as if as much as earliest she's going to go up fifteen points in the republican primary. That's just that's team points beyond what the indictment, yet so yeah right so the terrible care if they get a role, something out against the sky, It ought to be related to this. Twenty election because it least there you, you have an argument that bad such a tumultuous and consequential event and he is the driving force behind it, but you'll get some sympathy. A lot of your mandate, reminding people of of other of that that hurts hurts tromp right we're not know is going to care about. The very established nolan cared about the affair, so well to be continued as overtime. Have this part gas been produced by the incomparable Sarah should he thinks I won for listening, and thank you any mccarthy, frankfurt