The following is a conversation with carefully he's the chairman and c o of sanitation ventures. The manages a two billion dollar dual currency investment fund, with a focus on developing the next generation of chinese high tech companies. He's the former president of Google, china and the founder of what is now called microsoft, research, asia and this issue and trained many of the artificial intelligence leaders in china, including city, owes, or I execs at by- do ten cent ali baba a novel and waterway. He was named one of the one hundred most influential people in the world by time magazine he's the author of seven best selling books in chinese and, most recently, the new york times best seller called a I superpowers, china.

so called valley and the new world order. He has unparalleled experience in working across major tech companies and governments and applications of hiv is, and so he has a unique perspective on global economy. In the future, by that I think, is important to listen to and think about. This is the artificial intelligence park ass if you enjoy it subscribe. I knew too, when I tunes supported patriotic or simply a neck with me on twitter, at lex friedmann, and now here's my conversation with Kai Lee, I

ready from russia to u s. When I was thirteen, you emigrated to you ass at about the same age, the russian people the american people, the chinese people each have on certain soul, a spirit that permeates throughout the generations, so Maybe it's a little bit of a poetic question, but You are describing your sense of what defies the chinese, so I think the chinese soul of people today right we're talking about people who have had done centuries of birth it because of the poverty that a country has gone through and suddenly shined with hope of prosperity in the past forty years as china opened up and embraced market economy, and

undoubtedly, there are two sets of pressures on the people, that of the tradition that are found facing difficult situations and that of hope of wanting to be the first to become successful and wealthy, so that it's a very strong, a hunger and strong desire and strong work ethic that drives china forward. their roots? Do not just this generation, but before that's that deeper than just the new economic development? There's something that you need to china? They could speak to that's in the people. Well, the chinese. Some tradition is about excellence, dedication and results, and the chinese exams. And down study subjects in schools have traditionally is started from memorizing. Ten thousand characters not an easy task to start.

and further by memorizing, his historic philosophers, literature, poetry. So it really is probably the strongest wrote learning mechanism create it's to make sure people have good memory and remember things extremely well and that's, I think, at the same time our suppresses the breakthrough, innovation and and also enhances the speed execution, get results and that I think characterizes the hits, Dark basis of on china, as if you think this is a cause of that and russian education as well as road members asian sin, memorize alot of poach emmi, is just an emphasis on perfection and all forms that's not conducive to. Perhaps what you're speaking too, which is creativity, but do you think that kind of education holds back

the innovative spirit that you might see in the united states, while it holds back the breaks through innovative spirit that we see the united states, but it does not hold back the valuable execution orient as a result, oriented value, creating engines which we see china being very successful, so is there are differences in a chinese ai engineer today and an american engineer, perhaps rooted in the culture that we just talked about, or the education or the very soul of the people or no. And what would your advice be to each?

There's a difference. While there is a law that similar because a I is about mastering sciences about using known technologies and try new things, but is also about some picking from many parts of possible networks to use and different types of parameters. The tomb and that part is somewhat roads, and it is also, as anyone was built, a product I can tell you a lot about cleansing that data, because I runs better with more data and data is generally unstructured error or our full and some unclean and the effort to clean the data is is immense. So I think the Better part of american engineering, ai engineering process is to try new things to do things. People haven't done before and to use technology to solve most, if not all

problems, so to make the algorithm work, despite not so great data find in the air and ways to deal with the data. The chinese way would be to basically enumerates the fullest extent. All the possible ways by a lotta machines try lots of different ways to get it to work. Dump spend a lot of resources and money and time cleaning up data that That means the engineer, maybe- Writing data cleansing. Algorithms working with thousands of People who label or correct or do things with the data that is the incredible hard work that might lead to better results. So the chinese engineer would rely on and ask for

more and more and more data and find ways to cleanse them and make them work in the system and probably less time, thinking about new algorithms that can overcome day. There are other issues so where's, your intuition. Where do you think the biggest impact the next ten years lies? Is it in some break through algorithms Is it in just this at scale? Rigour, a rigorous approach to data clean data, organizing data onto the same AL? What do you think the big impact in the applied world is well, if you're, really in the company and you have to deliver results using known techniques and enhancing data, seems like the more expedient

approach, that's very low risk and are likely to generate better and better results, and that's why the chinese approach has done quite well now. There are a lot of more challenging start ups and problems such as autonomous vehicles, medical diagnosis that existing algorithms mate probably won't solve, and that would put the chinese approach more challenged and give them more. Break through innovation approach, more much more of an edge on those kinds of problems to we thought there were more so you know my personally is that data can take us extremely far. I saw you brought over autonomous vehicles in medical diagnosis. The your intuition is that huge amounts of data may not be able to completely help us solve that problem right? So breaking that now further you're, not autonomous vehicle? I think huge amounts

data probably will solve trucks driving our highways, which will deliver significant value, and china will probably lead in that and dumb full. Our five autonomous is likely to require new technologies. We don't yet no and that my require academia and great industrial research, both innovative and working together. and in that case you s, has an advantage for the interesting question it. There is no fear familiar on their towers vehicle space in the developments with tesla. de la musk. I am aware there are in fact a full steam ahead into this mysterious complex world full autonomy of five airfoil, five and they're trying to solve that purely would data. So the same kind of thing that you're saying is just for highway, which is what a lot of you. We share your intuition yeah they're, trying to solve a data

just to linger on their moment forever. Do you think possible for them to achieve success with simply just a huge amount of this? At training and education are difficult cases in urban environments, not just I went on, I think, will be very hard. One could characterize test laws approach as a kind of on chinese strength approach, gather all the data. You can and hope that we'll overcome the problems, but in autonomous driving clearly a lot of the decisions aren't merely solve by aggregating data and having feedback loop. There are things that are more akin to human thinking and how would those be debated and builds. There has not yet been the lava success, integrating human intelligence or in a colored experts system is viewed even though that's a taboo word with the machine learning and

intuition. The two types of thinking hasn't yet been demonstrated, and the question is: how much can you push a purely machine learning approach? of course, tesla also has an additional constraints that they don't have any answers I know that they think is foolish to use like ours that's clearly a one less very valuable and reliable source of inputs that their foregoing, which may also have consequence. I think the advantage, of course is capturing data. No one has ever seen before and in some cases, such as our computer, In this speech recognition I have seen chinese companies accumulate. Data does not see anywhere in the western world and they have delivered superior results, but then speech, recognition and object. Recognition are relatively suitable problems for deep learning and don't have the pudding

surely need for the human intelligence, analytical planning elements. In the same on the speech. Recognition aside, your intuition that speed, Recognition in the machine learning approaches to speech recognition won't take us to a conversational system that can pass the turing test, which is maybe akin to. do driving is so nice to have something more just simply simple language, understanding, simple language duration, roughly rights. I would say that, based on pure The machine learning approaches it's hard to imagine it could lead to a all conversational experience across arbitrary domains, which is akin to our five, I'm a little hasn t use the worth doing tests because the original death- she was probably too easy. We crop probably do that the spirit of the turing test, that's what I was referring to.

So you ve had major leadership research positions that apple microsoft, google, So continuing under discussion of america, russia, chinese soul and culture, and so on, what is the culture silicon valley, in contrast to china, may be yours broadly, and what is the unique culture of each of these three major companies? in your view, I think in aggregates silicon valley companies- and we could probably include microsoft in that even they're not in the valley Is some really dream big and have vision

mary goals and down believe that technology will conquer all and also the self confidence and the self entitlement that whatever they produce the whole world should use and must use and down. Those are historically important. I think in a steve jobs famous quotes. That's. to do he doesn't do focus groups. He look in the mirror and asks the first in the mirror whether you want, and that This is an inspirational comment that says the great company shouldn just ask users what they want but develop something that users were north. They want when they see it, but they could never come up with themselves. I think that is probably them most exhilarating description of what the essence of silicon valley is. That's this brilliant idea could cause you to build something:

couldn't come other focus groups or a bee tests, and I for one, would be an example of that no one in the age of blackberry would write down. They want an iphone or multi touch a browser. might be another example. No one would say they want that in today's have ftp, but was they see it? They want it. So I think that it was a silicon valley is best ads. but it also comes with the came with a lot of success. These products became global platforms and there were basically no competitors anywhere That has also led to believe that these are the only things that we should do that companies should not tread on other companies territory so that

it's a you know, groupon and the yelp and then open table and the grub hub with each feel. Okay, I'm not going to do the other company's business, because that would not be the pride of innovating, whatever each of these for companies and innovative, but I think the chinese approach is to whatever it takes to win. and is a winner, takes all market and in fact, in the end, in a space the markedly there we'll gets predominant, and all the value extracted out of the system so and in the end the system is in defined as one narrow category but gets brother and brother, So it's amazing ambition for success and domination of increasingly larger product categories leading to clear. market winner status and the opportunity to extract tremendous

value and that develops a practical result. Oriented ultra ambitious winner takes all gladiatorial mentality and if what it takes is to build whether competitors built essentially copycat that can be done without infringing laws have what it takes is to satisfy a foreign com a foreign countries need, by forcing the cold base and building something looks really ugly, indifferent they'll do it's, so it's contrasted very sharply with the silicon valley approach and having the flexibility and the speed and execution has helped the chinese approach, and I think the silicon valley approach is potentially challenge. if every chinese entrepreneurs learning from the whole world. U s in china and the american entrepreneurs

look internally and write off china. S copycat. And the second part of your question about the three companies, the governments of the company's, perhaps gap? I think apple represents while the user, please the user and on the essence of design and brand and time is the one company, and perhaps the only tech company that draw People with a Hey arms grew strong, serious desire for the products and the

and the willingness to pay a premium because of the halo effect of the brand, which came from the attention to detail and great respect for user needs. Microsoft represents a platform approach that build giant products that become very strong modes that others can do because it's well architect. It The bottom level and the work is efficiently delegated to individuals and then thumb the whole product spilled by adding small parts that some together so is probably the most dumb effective high tech assembly line. That builds a very difficult products that and the whole process of doing

It is kind of a young differentiation and something competitors can't easily repeat other elements of the chinese approach. In the way, microsoft went bout assembling those little pieces and dominate in them domain the market for a long time. Or do you see this? Is this day I think there are elements that are the same. I think the three american companies that had or have chinese character sticks and am obviously as well as american characteristics. Are microsoft, facebook and amazon, ass amazon, because these are companies that will love tenaciously go after adjacent markets, build up strong product offering. and and find ways to struck greater value from a sphere, that's ever increasing

they understand the value of the platforms. So that's the similarity and then with Google. I think it's a you genuinely value oriented company that does have a heart and soul and that once do great things for the world and by connecting it from nation and bad has also very strong technology genes and done, wants to use technology and has found out of the box ways to use technology to deliver in incredible value to the end user. Who can look at google, for example, emission heart and soul? There seems to be in element where google is after making the world butter. There's a more positive

if you mean they used to have the slogan, don't be evil and and facebook a little bit more, has a negative tend to it, at least in the perception of privacy and so on. Do you have a sense of how these different companies can achieve because you ve talked about how much we can make the world better and all these kinds of ways they I. What is it about a company they can make, give it a heart and soul gain the trust of the public interest, actually just not be evil and do good for the world really hard, and I think Google has struggled with that's first. That do. Evil mantra is very dangerous, because every employees definition of evil difference and that has led to some difficult employees situations for them. So I don't necessarily think that's a good dumb value statements, but just watching the kinds of things Google or its parent couple

Alphabet does in new areas like health care, like in eradicating muskie those things that are really not in the business of a internet company. I think that shows that there is a heart and soul and desire to do good willingness to put in the resources to do something when they see it's good, they will pursue it. that doesn't necessarily mean it has all the trust of the users. I realize, while most people would view facebook as the primary target if their recent unhappiness about silicon valley companies

They would put google in that category and some have named Google's business practices as some predatory also, so it's kind of difficult to have the two parts of a body the brain wants to do. What is supposed to dover, shareholder maximum profit and in the heart and soul, wants to do good things that may run aghast at what the grain was to do so in this complex balancing these companies have to do you mention the year sir, and about a future where too few companies like Google facebook, amazon, a controlling our data controlling too much of our digital lives. Here, buried on this concern, and perhaps you have a better way forward. I think I'm hardly the most vocal complaining of course, the first big there are large, louder complainers out there I do observe. That's have

A lot of data thus perpetuates their strength and dumb limit competition in many spaces are, but I also believe, gave a sigh- is much broader than the internet space, so the entrepreneur opportunity still exists, in using a lie to empower fan. And shawl retail manufacturing education applications. So I don't think it's quite a case of farm for monopolistic dominance that makes that totally stifles innovation. But I believe in their areas of strength is hard to want to dislodge them. I don't, no, if I have a good solution, probably the best solution is let the japan, aerial these sea ecosystem work well and find all the places that can create the next Google. The next facebook, so there will always be increasing number of our challengers in some sense, that has

and the little bed you see. Ober Airbus be having emerged, despite the strength of the that the big three and down, and I think china as an environment, maybe more interesting for the emerges, because if you look at companies between let's say, fifty two three hundred billion dollars, china has emerged more of such companies than the? U s in them in the last three or four years, because of the larger marketplace, because of the more fearless nature of the entrepreneurs that an end the china giants are just as powerful as america. Once Tenzin alibaba are very strong, but bites dance has emerged worth seventy five. Billion and financial, while, as Ali baba affiliated its nevertheless dependent, not worth a hundred fifty billion, and so I I do think if we start to extend to traditional business,

guess, we will see very, very valuable companies. So it's probably not the case that in a five or ten years, we'll still see the whole world with these five companies having such dominance that you've mentioned a couple times, This fascinating was of entrepreneurship in china, of the fearless nature that entrepreneurs a key, maybe talk a little bit about what it takes to be an entrepreneur, in china. Where are the strategies that are undertaken? What are the ways that achieve success, What is the dynamic of visa funding of the way the gun? and helps companies, doesn't want one of the interesting aspects here that are distinct from their different form. silicon valley, world of entrepreneurship, home Many of the listeners probably still would brand chinese entrepreneur as copycats and no doubt ten years ago. That would not be an inaccurate description.

Well back ten years ago. An entrepreneur probably could not get funding if he or she could not describe what product he or she is copying from the. U s. The first question is who has proven this business model, which is a nice way of asking for copying and in that region is understandable, because china had a much lower internet penetration and dumb and that didn't have enough indigenous experience to build innovative products, and secondly, internet was emerging ling start up was the way to do things, building a first minimally viable products and then expanding. the right way to go and the american successes have given the short cuts that if you took

If you build your minimally viable product based on american products is guaranteed to be a decent starting point, then you take it afterwards, so as long as no ip infringements, which so there hasn't been in the in the mobile and damp air. I spaces that's a a much better short cut and I think silicon valley would view that, as still not very honourable because that's not your own idea to start with, but you can't We at the same time believe every idea must be your own and Even the link startup methodology, because clean start up is intended to try many men. things, and then comrades, one that works and is meant to be iterating changed so funny. decent starting point without legal violations. There should be nothing morally dishonourable about that he had suggested. Cook pause a is fascinating debts,

Why is that? Not honourable right is exactly as you formulated as it seems like a perfect start for business Yeah is too were to take look at amazon and say: ok, work will do exactly what amazon is doing. That start there and this particular again and then let's out, innovate them from their starting point. Yes, I'm up with new ways, I mean, is it wrong to be an acceptable? Copycat just sounds bad, but is it wrong to be a copycat? It just seems like a smart strategy, but yes doesn't have a heroic nature to that, like a steve jobs and elon musk sort of something completely coming over. Something complain you yeah, I like the way you describe. It is a non heroic, acceptable way to start the company and maybe more experience so thats, the that's. I think, a baggage for silicon valley that if

doesn't let go. Then it made limits. The ultimate ceiling of the company take snapchat as an example, I think come evans brilliance. He built a great products, but he's very proud that he wants to build his own features, not copy others. While facebook, more willing to copy his features, and you see what happens in the competition, so I think pudding. Thats handcuff on company would limit its ability to reach the maximum potential So back to the chinese environment, copying was merely a way to learn, from the american masters just like we, if you would, we learned to play, piano or painting. You start by copying. You don't start by innovating when you don't have the basic skills sets. so very amazingly the chinese entrepreneurs. Above six years ago, I started to branch off.

with these links, start ups built on american ideas to build better products than american products, but they did start from the american idea and down today weep. We Chad is better than what's up way. Bores better than twitter. Jehu is better than Cora and so on. So that, I think, is some chinese. Some entrepreneurs going to step to and a step three is one these entrepreneurs have done one or two of these companies, then they now look at the chinese market and the opportunities and come up with ideas that didn't exist elsewhere. So products like and financial under, which includes ali pay, which is mobile payments, and also the financial products furlongs build on that and also one in education, vip kid and turn in social

both video social network tiktok and in sure, E commerce pinned order and and in our right, sharing motorbike. These are all chinese innovative products that now are being copied out swear so an inch and the additional interesting observation is some of these products are built. Our unique. I need demographics, which may not work in the? U s, but maybe very well in south, east asia, africa and other developing world that are a few years behind china and the few of these products may be arm the vessel and are getting traction even the united states, such as tik tok. So this whole ecosystem is supported by the seas as a virtuous cycle, because a large market with

with that. Innovative entrepreneurs will draw a lot of money and then investing these companies, though, as the market gets larger and larger. U s marked china market, easily three four times larger than the you ass. They were with greater value and greater returns for the disease, thereby raising, even more money, so salivation ventures are first fund was: fifteen million are last bundles one hundred million so that it reflects the valuation of the companies and our us going multi stage, and things like that. It also. has government supports, but not in The way most americans would think of it. The government four leaves the entrepreneurial space as a private enterprise, so the self regulating and the government would build infrastructures that would dumb around it to make it work better.

For example, the mass entrepreneur amass innovation plan are built, a thousand incubators, so the pipeline is very strong to the disease are for autonomous vehicles. The chinese government is building smart highways with sensors, smart city Is that separate pedestrians from cars that may allow initially, it inferior autonomous vehicle company to launch a car without increasing with lower casualty, because the roads or the city is smart and the chinese government at local level with have these guiding funds acting as our peace, passive, AL peace to funds and when the fund, makes money. Part of the money made is given back to the gps and potential.

The other, our peace to reach, increase everybody's return at the expense of the government's return. So that's interesting incentive that and trust that task of choosing entrepreneurs to these These were better added in the government by letting some of the prophet a move that way. So this is really fascinating. Rate I look at the russian government- has a case study where they put it. This way there is no such Government driven large scale, support of entrepreneurship, and probably the same, is true in the united states, but the entrepreneurs themselves kind of find away so maybe in a form of advice or explanation how

the chinese government arrived to be this way, so supportive, atropine entrepreneurship to be in this particular way so forward. Thinking at such a large scale, and also perhaps how can we copy it? their country's yeah back. How can we encourage other governments have given the united states government to support infrastructure for autonomous vehicles in that same kind away? Perhaps yes, so these some techniques are the result of several key things. Some which may be learned the ball, some of which may be very hard one. Is this trial and error and watching what everyone else is doing? I think is important to be humble enough: feel like in all the answers? The guide? funds idea came from singapore, which came from Israel and china made a few tweaks and dumb turned it into,

a because the chinese cities and government officials kind of compete with each other, because they all want to make their city more successful. So they can get the next level in their current air pollutants, their police career and arm is somewhat competitive, so this Your government made it a bit of a competition. Everybody has a budget, they can put it aye aye or they can put it on bio or they can put it on energy, then whoever gets the results. The city shines. The people are better off. The mayor gets a promotion, so the tools, some kind of like an entrepreneurial environment? Forests local governments to see who can do a better job. and also many of them tried different experiments,

some have given a war, the two very smart, some researchers just give the money and hope they'll start accompany. Some have given money to academic research lapse, maybe government, research, labs, to see if they can spin off some companies from the science lab or something like that. Some have tried to recruit overseas chinese to come back and start companies and they've had mixed results. The one that worked the best was the guiding funds source almost like a link stratified idea where people try different things in what works, sticks and everybody copies. So now every city has a guiding fund. So that's how that came about the autonomous vehicles. And the massive spending in highways and smart cities. That's a chinese way. It's about building infrastructure,

facilitate is a clear division of the government's responsibility from them markets. The market should do everything in our private freeway, but there are things the market can afford it. Like infrastructure, so the government, some always some appropriate large amounts of money for infrastructure building this happen some happens with. Not only autonomy the economy, I but happened with the three gene and forging you'll find that the chinese are a wireless reception is better than the. U s, because massive spending that tries to cover, the whole country or whereas in the u s it may be a little spotty and it's a government driven because I think they view the coverage offs of them, sl access and three forty access to be a girl.

Mental infrastructure spending, as opposed to as opposed to capitalistic. So that's, of course the state owned enterprises are also publicly traded, but they also carry a government responsibility to deliver infrastructure to all sorts of different way of thinking that may be very hard to checked into western countries to say starting tomorrow, ban with infrastructure and ways are going to be and governmental spending with some characteristics. What's your sense and sorry to interrupt, but no because it's such a fascinating point, do you think on the autonomous vehicle space, it's possible to solve the problem of full autonomy without significant investment in infrastructure, What is really hard to speculate? I think it's not a yes, no question, but how long does it take question in fact

years, thirty years, forty five years clearly with infrastructure augmentation, where there's road, the city, orbs wholesomely, planning, building a new city I am sure that will accelerate the day of the owl five I not knowledgeable enough in its hard to predict. Even the one word knowledgeable, because a lot of this speculative but in the u s I dont think people was consider building a new city, the size of chicago, too It could be a slash autonomous city, their smaller ones, being built them aware of that, but infrastructure spend really impossible for you ass. A western countries. I don't think so the? U S, highway system was built was at doing

President eyes an hour or candidate as an hour or so the source. So maybe historians can study how the president, as in horror, get the resources to build this massive infrastructure that early gave arm. U s a tremendous amanda farm prosperity over the next decade of mass entry. If I'm a comment on that, then it takes us to artificial, tell just a little bit, because in order to build infrastructure, it creates a lot of Jobs so I'll be actually interested. If you wouldn't say that you talk talking your book about all kinds of jobs, that could and could not be automated. I wonder if building infrastructure is one of the jobs that would not be easily automated or something think think about, because I think you mentioned somewhere in the talk or that there there might be,

as jobs are, being automated a role for government to create jobs. It can't be automated. Yes, I think that's a possibility back in the last financial crisis on china puts a lot of money too. Basically gives us economy a boost and alive with a lot of the went into infrastructure. Building and am, I think, that's legitimate wave government level to arm to deal with, employment issues as well, less happy out the infrastructure as long as the infrastructures are truly needed and as long as there is an employment problem which within them so maybe taking a little step. back if you ve been a leader and a researcher in ally for several decades, at least thirty years or so How is changed in the west and the east?

as you observe, as you ve been deep in it over the past thirty years. I began as the pursuit of understanding human intelligence and the term itself represents that, but it kind of lifted into the one sub area that worked extremely well, which is machine, intelligence and vat Lastly, while using pattern, recognition techniques to basically incredibly. Well, on the limited, domain large amount of data, but relatively simple kinds of farm planning tasks and not very creative. So so we did an end up. Building human intelligence built at different machine. That was a lot better than us some problems, but nowhere close to us on other problems. So today I

a lot of people still misunderstand when we say artificial intelligence and what various products can do, people still think it's about replicating whom intelligence, but the products out there really are closed to having invented the internet or the spreadsheet or the database, and getting brother adoption and making further to the fears near The fears that people have body- I see your commenting on the sort of the general. Intelligence. That people in the popular culture from cipher movies have a sense of body. I but there's practical Here's a body I the kind the narrow I that you're talking about of automating particular kinds of jobs, and you talk about them in the book, so What are the kinds of jobs in your view that you see in the next five ten years beginning to be automated by a systems- algorithms. Yes, this is it

it also maybe a little bit counter intuitive, because it's the routine jobs that will be displaced, the soonest and they may not be displaced entirely- may be fifty percent. Eighty per cent of a job, but when the workload drops by that much lebanon will come down and also another part of misunderstanding? Is most people think of a replaced routine jobs than they think. The assembly lie the workers, while that will have some effects, but is actually the rooting white collar workers. That's easiest to replace, because We need to replace a white collar workers, just new software, to replace a blue color worker. You need robotics mechanical excellence and the ability to deal with them. Dexterity, and maybe even uno environments? Very, very difficult, so if we were to category

is the most dangerous arm why our jobs. There would be things like back office, people who copy and paste and deal with a simple computer programmes and data and down maybe paper oh see are, and they don't make strategic decisions. They basically facilitate the process. These software and paper systems don't work so yeah people dealing with new employee orientation searching for past lawsuits. Financial documents and doing reference check the basics urging and management of data data that the most in danger of being lost. In addition to the white collar repetitive work, a lot of

simple interaction. Work can also be taken care of such as tell us telemarketing customer service, as well as many physical jobs that are in the same location and don't require a high degree of dexterity, so our fruit, picking dishwashing washing blue line inspection at jobs in that category, so altogether back office is a big part and on the other, or the the the blue collar, may be smaller initially, but over time a I will get better and when we start to get to over the next fifteen twenty years, the ability the two. How shall have the dexterity of doing assembly line as a huge chunk of jobs and and when autonomous vehicles start to work initially, starting with truck drivers, but eventually to all drivers. That's another a group of workers, so I see modest enough

in the next five years, but increasing rapidly after that, on the worry of the jobs in danger and the gradual loss of jobs, a measure of europe Amelia with Andrew Yang. Yes, I am so there's a candidate for president united states. His platform Yang is based around in, are around job loss due to automation and also In addition, the need, perhaps, of universal basic income, to support jobs that are folks who lose, Their jobs due to automation one in general support people under complex, unstable job market. So what are your thoughts about his concerns him as a candidate, his ideas in general I think is thinking is generally in the right direction, but his approach

The presidential candidate may be a little bit head of the time. I think the displacements will happen, but what they happen soon enough for people to agree to vote for him. then them than members are not very high yet, and I think in He- and I have the same challenge. If I want to theoretically convinced people come, his people is an issue and he wants to become. The president's people have to see How can this be the case when unemployment numbers are low? So that is the challenge and I think I I think we do. I do agree with him on the displacement issue on you: so basic income, They very vanilla level. I don't agree with it because I think the main issue is retraining. So people need to be incentive not by just giving much.

The two thousand dollar a check or one thousand dollar check and do whatever they want, because they don't have the know how to know what to retrain to go into what town type of a job and guidance is needed and retraining is needed because, historically in technology, revolutions well, routine jobs were displaced, newly in jobs came up so that there is always room for that, but with a sigh and automation, the whole point is replacing all routine jobs eventually, so there will be fewer and fewer routine jobs and an a I will create jobs, but it won't create routine jobs ass if it creates routine jobs, why wouldn t? I just do it so, therefore, the people we're losing jobs are losing routine jobs, the jobs that are becoming aware.

People are known, routine jobs, so these social stipend needs to be put in place is for the routine workers who lost their jobs to be retrained, maybe six months, maybe three years takes a while to retrain on the non routine job and then take on a job that will last for that person's lifetime. Now, having said that, if you look deeply into andrew's document, he thus cater for that. So I'm not disagreeing with a where, where he's trying to do, but for simplification, sometimes he just says you'll, be I but simple, you'll be out with a work and I think you've you've mentioned elsewhere, that I mean the goal isn't necessarily to give people enough money to survive or live or even to prosper. The point is to give job. That gives a meaning that meaning is extremely important, that the our employment, these, the united states, and perhaps it cares across the world, provides something that

Forgive me for saying greater than money provides, meaning. So now. What kind of jobs do you think can't be automated? He talk a little about creativity and compassion your book. What aspects do you think it's difficult autumn, funny I system, because in a system is some currently merely optimizing. It's not able to reason, plan or think creatively are strategically it's not with a deal with complex problems. It can't come up with a new problem and solve its a human needs to find the problem, and that posted as an optimization problem. Then, The day work at it, so ay? I would have a hard time disk. Covering a new drug or discovering a new style of painting or dealing with complex tasks,

that such as managing a company that is in just about optimist, the bottom line, but also about employees satisfaction his backing brand that many many other things. So that is one category of things and as these things are challenging, creative complex doing them creates a higher high degree satisfaction and therefore appealing to our desire for working which isn't just to make the money make the ends meet, but also that we ve accomplished something that others may be can't do or can do as well. Another type of job that is much numerous would be compassionate jobs, jobs that require compassion. Empathy, human touch, human trusts ay. I can't do that because a ice cold calculating. and even if it can fake that to some extent it will make errors, and that will make it look very silly and all I think, even today,

did ok. People would want to interact with a peep another person, whether it's for some kind of a service or a teacher, or doctor or a concierge or a bartender. There are so many jobs where people just don't want to interact with a cold robot or software. I've had an entrepreneur who build an elderly care robot and they found that the elderly really only use if a customer service and top but not to service the product, but they could become the customer service. Video of a person comes up, and then the person has how come I thought you didn't, me, let me say that I regret his so people yearn for that people. People interaction is so even the robots improved people just don't want it, and those jobs are going to be increasing because I will create a lotta value. Sixteen trillion dollars,

to the world in next eleven years. According to pick up, you see, and that will give people money to enjoy sir services, whether is eating gourmet meal or tourism and travelling or having concierge services. The the services revolving around in every dollar of that It's a trillion dollars will be tremendous. It will create more opportunities that are to service the people who well through ai and with with with things but even At the same time, the entire society is so very much shorts in need of the service, oriented, compassionate oriented jobs. The best example is probably in healthcare services, their schooling be two million new jobs, not coming replacement. Just a brand new,

incremental jobs in the next six years in healthcare services that includes nurses, are orderly in the hospital or elderly care and and ah, and also at home. Care is particularly lacking and those jobs. Are not likely to be filled, so there is likely to be a shortage and their reason there not filled is simply because data very well, and that the social status of these jobs are not very good, so they pay about half as much as a heavy equipment operator which will be replaced a lot sooner. And they part pay probably comparably to someone on the assembly line and, if so, if we ignoring all the other issues and just think about satisfaction from one's job. Some one group

The deadly doing the same manual, action and assembly lie that can't create a lot of jobs at his faction, but someone taking care of a sick person and and getting a hug, and thank you for that person in them and the family. I think it is quite satisfying, so if only we could fix the pay for service jobs. There are plenty of jobs that require some training or a lot of training for the people coming off the routine jobs. To take, we can easily imagine some. I who was maybe a cashier at the most storm escorts become automated. I learned to be A nurse or aid at home care are also to point out the blue collar jobs, we are going to stay around a bit longer, some of them quite a bit longer, and you know a I cannot be told, go cling at an arbitrary home. That's incredibly hard, arguably, is an l, five level of difficulty.

I am in a. I cannot be a good plumber, because plumber is almost like a mini detective that has to figure out where the leak came from so yet a I probably can. And be an assembly line and down I'll offer mechanic and saw so one has to study we. blue collar jobs, are going away and facilitate retraining for the people to go into the ones that won't go. Way or maybe even will increase. I mean it is fascinating that it's easier to build a world champion chess player than it is to to build a mediocre plum. Yes, right every day, I that's goes counter intuitive to a lot of people's understanding over what artificial intelligence is. So it sounds. I mean you're painting a pretty optimistic picture about. Retraining about the number of jobs in action, the meaningful nature, those jobs once. the army, the repair of tasks so overall

I are you optimistic about the future where much of the repairs test. Automated, but there is a lot of room for humans for the compassionate for the creative up input that only humans can pride. I am optimistic if we start to take action if we have no action in the next five years. I think is going to be hard to deal with the devastating losses that will emerge Oh, if we start thinking about retraining, maybe with a low hang fruits explaining to vocational schools, why they should trim more plumbers that other mechanics May be starting with some governments subsidy for corporations to have more training positions. We start to explain to people why I retraining is important. We start to think about what the future of education how there needs to be tweaked for this

here. I if we start to make incremental problem. Ass in the greater number of people understand? Then, there's no reason to think we can deal with this because this technological, Lucian is arguably similar to what electricity in that The revolutions and internet brought about do you think there's a role for policy for governments to step in to help with policy to create a better world are absolutely and night, and the government's dont have to believe in the plenum will go up and they don't have to believe. Automation will be this fast. to do something revamping vocational school would be one example. Another is if there is a big gap in health care, service, employee meant- and we know that a country's population is is growing. Older and more longevity living older, because people over

eddie require five times as much care as those under eighty. Then it is a good time to incense training programmes for elderly care to find ways to improve the pay? Maybe one way would be to offer as part of medicare or the equivalent programme for people over eighty to be entitled to a few hours of elderly care, a home and then that might be reimbursable and that will stimulate the ah service industry around the the policy do have concerns about large entities, whether its government's accompanies controlling the future of a development. in general, so we talked about companies. Do you have a better sense that governments can better represent the interests of the people, then companies or do you believe, companies a better representing the interests

the people or is there no easy answer it's an easy answer, because it's a double edged sword. The companies and governments can provide better services with more access to data and more access to ai, but that also leads to greater power, which can lead to uncontrollable problems, whether its monopoly or corruption in the government? So I think one has to be careful to look at how much data that companies and governments have and dumb, and some kind of checks and balances would would be helpful. So again I come from Russia there's something called the cold war. A salami ask a difficult question here. Looking at Conflict is Steven pinker written a great book. The conflict all over the world is decreasing in jail, but you have a sense that having written the book as super

hours. Do you see a major international conflict, potentially arising between major nations, wherever they are with its rush china, a european nations, are aids or others in the next ten twenty fifth years around day. I the digital space, cyberspace. You worry about that. That is there. Something is something we need to think about and try to alleviate or prevent, I believe, even greater engagement, are the worries about more powerfully. I are based on a arms race, metaphor and dumb the when you extrapolate into military kinds of scenarios I can offer made and an answer in upon them as weapons. There needs to be controlled. Somehow answer

Economists decision making can lead to not enough time to fix international crises, so I actually believe a cold war and how are they would be very dangerous because should too, countries rely to make certain decisions and they don't even talk to each other They do their own scenario planning, then something good legal wrong. My think, engagement, interaction, some protocols, to avoid down inadvertent disasters is actually needed, so its natural for each country to want to be the best, whether its in nuclear technology, he's or a high or by all, but I think its import,

to realize. If each country has a black box ally and that don't talk to each other, that probably presents greater challenges to humanity. Ah, then, if they interactive, I think there can still be competition with some degree of protocol for an interaction just like when there was some and a nuclear competition. There were some protocol four deterrents. Among you S, russia and china. I think that engagement is needed. So, of course, we are still far from a presenting that kind of danger. But so what I worry the most about is the law full of engagements seems to be coming down. The level of distrust seems to be going up.

Especially from the u s towards other large countries such as china and, of course, russia and russia. Yes, is a way to make their betters those beautiful level engagement and even just a basic asked in communication, as opposed to a sort of. You know making official enemies, to give particular countries did you ever give a sense? How we can make it better? mention of all items, that is as a society we can take on, I'm not an experts at geopolitics, but I would say that we look pretty foolish ass humankind,

when we are faced with the opportunity to create sixteen fill in dollars for for four, for whom, for humanity and weak we're in yet we're not solving fundamental problems with parts of the world still in poverty. For the first time we have the resources to overcome poverty and hunger, we're not using it on bad, but were fuelling competition amongst superpowers, and that's a very unfortunate thing. If we become utopian for a moment, imagine a a benevolent world governments

That has the sistine trillion dollars and maybe some aid to figure out how to use it to deal with diseases and dumb problems and hate, and things like that world would be a lot better off. So what is wrong with the current world? I think the people with more skilled then than I should shift to think about this, and then the geopolitics issue prepare. Competition is one side of the issue. There is another side wish I worry, maybe even even even more, which is as the sixteen trillion hours all gets made by? U s in china and the few of the develop other developed countries, the poor a country will get nothing because they don't have technology and and the the wealth disparity and inequality will increase, so a poor country,

with large population will not only benefit from the apple or other technology bombs, but they will have their workers, who previously had hoped they could do. The china model and to outsource, manufacturing or the india model, so they could do the house or some process or call center those jobs are going to be gone in ten or fifteen years. So the the individual cities and may be a net liability am, if I'm actually speaking, to a poorer country and not an asset to to to claw itself out of poverty. So in that kind of situation, these some large countries with was not much tech are going to be seeing a downward spiral and is unclear what could be done and in their women look back and say there, sixteen trillion dollars being created and his all being kept by

who s china and other developed countries? It just doesn't feel right. So I hope people who know about geopolitics can find solutions. That's beyond my expertise, so different countries that we talk about have different value systems. If you look at the united states, to an almost extreme degree there is an absolute desire for freedom of speech, you're gonna country, where I was raised, that desire just amongst the people, is not that us not as elevated to citizens, took my basically the mental level to the essence of what it means to be america right and the same is true with china there's different value systems. There's some censorship of internet content that china and russia and many other countries undertake do

see that's having effects on innovation. Other aspects of some the text of a development talk about and made me from another angle: do you see that chain in different ways over the next ten years, twenty years, fifty years as I china thing is to grow as it does now and in its tech, innovation are theirs. common belief that full freedom of choice, beacon expression is correlated with creativity which is correlated with thumb, entrepreneurial success. I think empirically. What we have seen that is True and china has been successful, that's not to say the fundamental values, are not rights or not. The best by this is that that that perfect correlation is an isn't there. It's hard to

the tea leaves on and opening up or not in any country, and I have not been very good at that in my past predictions, but I do believe that every country shares. Some fundamental value allow the fundamental values for the long term. I you know china is drafting its privacy policy for individual citizens and they don't look, different from the american or european ones? So people do want to protect their privacy and have the opportunity to express I think the fundamental values are. Their question is in the ice and timing, how so or when will that start to open up so so so nice

long as each government knows. Ultimately, people want that kind of protection. There should be a plan to move towards that. as to when or how can I not an expert on the point of privacy to me is really interesting as though I needs data to create a personalized awesome experience. I'm just picking generators of products, and then we have currently depending on the aged and depending on the demographics, are who we're talking about. Some people are more or less concerned about the amount of data the handover in your view? How do we get this balance right we provide an amazing experience to people that use products. Facebook the more facebook knows about you. Yes, it's scary to say the better. You can probably there, but experiencing probably

rate. So, in your view, how do we get that balance right? Yes, I think a lot of people have a misunderstanding: that's it's ok and possible to disregard the data outfit. A provider and give it back to you. So you can deny them access to further data and still enjoy the services we have. If we take back, all the data or the services will give us nonsense, will no longer people. to use products that function well in terms of right, ranking, right products, right user experience? So so yet I do understand wheat. We don't want to permit misuse of the data from

legal policy standpoint. I think there can be severe punishment for those who have egregious misuse of the data. That's, I think, a good first step. Actually china in this side and on this aspect, has very strong laws about people who sell or give data to other companies and and that over the past few years, since the that lout locking came into effect pretty much, eradicated. The young illegal distribution sharing of data. Additionally, I think giving I think, Technology is often a very good way to solve technology misuse. So

can we come up with new technologies that will let us have a cake and eat it? Show people are looking into homo moffit encryption, which is letting you keep the data havoc encrypted and train. I could- The data course we haven't solve that one yet, but that kind of direction may be worth pursuing also federated learning, which would allow one hospital to train. Is hospitals patient data fully because they have a license for that. and then hospitals were they share their models, not data models to create. pray I, and that also maybe has on promise. So I would want to encourage us to be open minded and think this. As think of this, as not just the policy binary. Yes, no, but letting the technologists try to find solutions to lead us, have our cake and eat it too, or have most of our cake and eat most

of it to. Finally, I think giving each end user a choice is important and having transparency is important, I think that's universal, but the choice you give to the user, should not be at the grand you're, a level that the user cannot understand. Gdp are today, causes all these pop ups of yes. Now will you give this site this right to use this part of your data? I dont think the user understands, what they're saying yes or no to- and I suspect, more, just saying? Yes, because they will understand it so while gdp are in its current implementation, has lived up to its promise of transparency and user choice is implemented it in such a way that really didn't delivered the the spirit of gdp. Are they said the latter another spirit. So again, I think we need to think of

Is there a way to fit the spirit of gdp are by using some kind of technology to can we have a slightly, that's an ai trying to figure out how much you want to slide between perfect protection, secure security of your personal data versus a high degree of convenience, with some risks of not having full privacy, and each users should have some preference, and that gives you the user choice. But maybe we should turn the problem on his head and ask: can there be an ai algorithm that can customize this, because we can. understand slider but wish cannot understand every pop up our question and I think Getting there right acquires getting the balance between what we talked about earlier, which is heart and soul versus profit, driven this decisions and strategy. I think, for my,

perspective the best way to make a lot of money in the long term is to keep your heart and soul intact. I think getting that slider right in the short term may feel, like you, be sacrificing profit, but in the long term beginning user trusts and providing a great experience do shit. That kind of view in general. Yes, absolutely I would, I sure, with hope theories the way we can do long term projects. That's really do the right thing, I think, a lot of the people who embrace gdp are their hearts in the right place. I think they just need to figure out how to build a solution. I've heard utopians talk about solutions that get me excited but I'm not sure how in the current funding alarm and they can get started right. People talk about. Imagine this sum crowd source, star data collection that

We are trusts, and then we have these some agents that we ask them to ask. The trusted agent to quit that agent. Only that platform said trusted joint platform that that we all believe is a trustworthy that can give us are the closed loop. Personal suggestions. By the new social network, new search engine, new e commerce, engine that has access even more of our data, but not directly but indirectly, so adding that general concept of arm licence it into some trusted engine and finding a way, I trust that engine seems like a great idea, but if you think how long it's going to take to implement and tweak and develop it right as well as to collect all the trusts and the data from the people

it's beyond the current cycle of venture capital. So how do you do? That is a big question we recently had a fight with cancer stage, fallen farmer and deep personal level What did it feel like in the darkest moments to face your all mortality while I've been the work Halleck, my whole life and down a bit italy, worked nine six maimed and I p m six days a week roughly and I didn't pay a lot of attention to my family, friends and people who loved me and my life revolved around optimizing for work, while my work was not routine, my optimization really, what made my life

basically very mechanical process, but I got a lot of highs out of its because of accomplishments than I thought. Really important and dear and the highest priority to me, but when I faced mortality and the possible death in matter months. I suddenly realized that this really meant nothing to me that I didn't like working for another minute that, if I had six months left in my life, I would spend it all with my loved ones and in thanking them, giving them love back and apologizing to them that I lose my if the wrong way, so so that moment of reckoning caused me to really rethink. That's why

we exists in this world is, is something that we might be too much shaped by the society to think that success and accomplishments is why we live. But while that can get you a periodic, successes and satisfaction. It's really in them facing death. You see what's truly important to you as a result of thumb going through them the challenges with cancer I resolved to live a more balanced lifestyle. I'm now in remission market would- and I spending more time with my family. My wife, travels with me will make his need me. I spend more time with them and before it I used to pirate. Has everything around work when I have, a bit of time. I would doll it out of my family now

when my family need something really need something, I drop everything a work and go to them. and in the time remaining I allocate to work, but once Emily is very understanding. It's not like. They were taken fifty weeks fifty hours a week from me, so I'm actually able to still worked pretty hard, maybe ten there less per week. So I realized the most important thing in my life is really love and the people I love and give the highest priority It is the only thing I do, but when that is needed, I put that it is at the top priority and I feel much better and I feel much more balanced and I think this also gives them hint as to a life of routine work, a life of pursuit of numbers, while my job was not routine.

It was in pursuit of numbers. Pursuit of. Can I make more money? Can I find more great companies? Can I raise more money? Can I make sure heavy seas rank higher and higher every year, this competitive nature of driving for bigger numbers, and better numbers became a endless pursuits of farm. That's mechanical and add bigger numbers doesn't really didn't make me happier and faced with death, I realized big big remembers, really meant nothing, and what was important is that people who have given their heart and their love to me deserve for me to do the same. There is deep, profound truth in that that everyone should hear an internalize as really powerful for you to say that I have to ask sort of a difficult.

Question here, though, I've compete in sports. My whole life, looking historically I'd like to challenge some aspect of that, a little bit on a point of hard work that it feels that there are certain aspects that is the greatest, The most beautiful aspects of human nature is the ability to become obsessed of becoming extremely passion to the point where yes, flaws, are revealed and just giving yourself fully to a task that is, in another sense,

you mentioned love being important, but in another sense this kind of obsession. This pure exhibition of passion and hard work is truly what it means to be human. What lessons should we take this deeper because you've accomplished incredible things? Do you say it chasing numbers, but really there's some incredible work there. So how do you think about that? When you look back in your twenties thirties. What was what would you do differently? Would you really take back some of them incredible hard work. I would but it's it's in percentages right, we're both our computer scientists so I think we're one balances one's life. When women, the younger you, you might give a smaller percentage to family, but He was still given high priority and when you get older, you would give a larger percentage to them and still high priority, and- and will you

near retirement? You give most of it to them and the highest priorities. I think the key point is not that we would work twenty hours less for the whole life and just spend its aim will asleep with Emily, but that's when the family has need when your wife is having a baby, when your daughter has a birthday or when their depressed. Or when are celebrating something or when they have a get together. We have family time that is important for us to put down our and pc and be a hundred percent with them, and that priority on the things that really matter isn't going to be so taxing that it would dumb eliminate or even dramatically reduce our accomplishments it? My have some impact for them

I also have other impact, because if you have a happy or family, maybe you fight less you fight less. You don't spend time taking care of all the aftermath of a fight. Espresso is unclear that it would take more time, and if it did I'd, be willing to arm to take that reduction, and it's not a dramatic number, but it's a number that I think, would give me a greater degree of happiness and knowing that I've done the right thing and still have plenty of ours to it to to get the success that I want to get so, given the many successful companies the you launched and much success draw your career or what advice would you give to why young people today looking or does not to be young, but people today looking to launch into create the next one billion dollar attack, startup

or even a hiv startup. I would suggest that people understand technology waves move quickly what worth two years ago may not work today, and that is very much case in point four. I I think two years ago or maybe years ago. You certainly could say I have a couple of superstar phds and down or national we're gonna do appears from cairo gonna start and get funding for very high valuation. Those days are over because ai is going from rocket science towards mainstream, not yet commodity. But more may string, so first, the creation of any company to venture capitalists has to be creation of business value, a monetary value and dumb, when you have very scarce commodity basis,

may be willing to accept greater uncertainty, but now the number of people who have the equivalent of phd three years ago, because that and be learned more quickly? Platforms are emerging the costs to become a engineer, much lower, and there are many more ange nearest, so the market is different so I would suggest someone who wants to build in a company be thinking about normal business questions. What customer cases are you trying to address? What kind of pain are you trying to address? How what does that translate to value? How will you extract value and get paid through what channel and how much business value will get created. That's today needs to be thought about much earlier up front than it did three years ago. The scarcity question of air

Helen has changed. The number of italian has changed so now you need me, just a lie, but also understanding of isn't this customer and and the marketplace. So I also think you should have a more reasonable evaluation is Dictation growth expectation, there's gotta be more competition, but the good news, though, is that a high tech now jeez are now more available in open source. Tensor flow hum pie torch in such tools arm much easier to use, so you should be able to experiment and get results irritably faster than before. So take more of a business mindsets to this think less of this as a laboratory taken,

into a company, because we ve gone beyond that stage? The only exception is. If you truly have a breakthrough, in some technology that really no one has then than the old way still works. But I think that's harder and harder now so I know you believe, as many do that were far from creating an artificial general intelligence system, but say once we do and you get to ask her one question: what would that question be? What is it that differentiate you and me view people careful. Thank you so much for your time today. Thank you.