Right now, someone's listening to songs, about parties, travel and get away? Without planning one for themselves. They need a change of two real visit north carolina. How is everyone's? we turned mine was a little boisterous, so long story, but my bachelor party freely Mary got cancelled because of covered and turned out. I got a surprise makeup. Bachelor party, Sir Jeffrey still hung over this morning, I'm fine morning. Don't ask me that sunday or saturday maya, but my my pitches, much more of a base today than normal,

hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics by cast iron Galen Rukh, we ve got a busy weak ahead of us folks. Former president donald trump is expected to appear in court in new york city on tuesday after being indicted. Last week, that's likely when we're gonna, The actual charges against him, but presidential indictments aside this week was all ready going to be a big weak for elections. Watchers voters are headed to the poles on tuesday, with a most closely watched contests being that wisconsin supreme court and chicago may oral races. The race in wisconsin is largely considered the most consequential of twenty twenty three, it's a state watching and purple state with the overall, The intention of the court and issues like abortion and gerrymandering hanging in the balance

The chicago may always will be another test of whether urban politics are shifting to the right, with a clear choice between a teachers union backed progressive and police to union, backed centrist in case you missed it over the weekend, the pool of twenty twenty four presidential contenders got a little bigger former arkansas governor isa hutchinson is running for the republican nomination with a pitch that it's time for conservatives to move past trump. You got a lot to cover, so let's get to hear it our senior reporter Emily thomson develop. Hey Amelia has a gallon. God, how are you doing pretty I'll slow monday, but we got it's to cover? Nonetheless, also your thus senior elections analyse Nathaniel analyst Nathaniel chain, Nathaniel, hey, Galen, alien and also thus as senior elections analysed jeffreys galley, hey Jeffrey Galen. So, let's begin with trumps indictment since it became public last week, pollsters have been out in the field trying to gauge how americans are we

acting nathaniel. Take us off. What have we learned? Well, we haven't learned a whole lot. We ve had a couple of poles have come out since the indictment and made largely confirm what we want the poles kind of before the indictment that asked like you know what would you think so so, for example, a b c news and ipsos came out with a poll they found but, generally speaking, americans are in favour of the indictment, although a fair number aren't sure, I'm sorry that members are forty. Five percent think that trump should have been charged with a crime in this case, whereas thirty two percent thank you shouldn't have, and twenty three percent said they dont know that said. A plurality of americans do think that the charges against trump are politically motivated. That's forty seven percent, and that is I know, I'm not sure it's quite a paradox, but it's a little bit of you now internal you're pushing pull that that americans are feeling that was also reflected in some poles from before the indictment

yeah. So I think there is some thought that trump could be gaining, at least in the sense of republican presidential primary polls against his likely challenger rhonda dissenters, you know, there's at least one survey out from you, gov yahoo news. It's that showed trump having gained over santas compared to where he was before. I do think, as always, it's important to sort of keep the larger trends in mind with this, which is that trump had already been improving in his position. Vs v, dissenters, Andrew. You know whether you're talking about head head against the santas you're talking about larger field. You know, including like the santas nikki haley mike pence. You know likely are already in the race major contenders. Trump trump has been doing this an upward trajectory in the polls over the

last couple of months. So you know for me that makes it harder to know how much the indictments actually playing into that or if it's just kind of a continuation of the trends and and obviously it's going to take seeing some some further polling to know that or to get a better idea about that the interesting thing in some of these balls anyway is just that there is a fair amount of uncertainty, and so I think there is room for some of these opinions to potentially change when we do actually get the charges so so. One question in a cnn assess our ass Paul was also conducted after the news of the indictment broke, found that americans are pretty split on whether the decision to indict trump strengthens. U s, democracy! Thirty, one percent agreed with that an identical shares. They weakens democracy and, roughly a quarters say it has no effect on tomorrow.

in fifteen percent are unsure so it'll be interesting to see if those numbers shift as the process continues and we actually learn what the charges are and we sort of sea trump starting to respond. Another question that poll that I thought was interesting was you know you you can ask about whether people approve of the indictment or you can ask about what they actually think about the underlying behavior and in the poll. It was also pretty split on that thirty. Seven percent of americans thought that trump's payments to Daniels were illegal. Thirty, three percent they were, I said they were unethical, but not illegal. Only ten percent said they weren't wrong at all, and twenty per cent don't know, and so that is another interesting question that I think is telegraphing quite a bit of uncertainty and also

Just this general sense that america, there isn't a consensus yet about how serious the charges are and, of course we actually don't know what they are. So that's completely a completely fair thing for people to be uncertain about and that that's something where I you know. I think there is some potential for opinion to move once we learn what the charges actually are and the wheels of the legal process start moving yeah. I think that's an important point: we're going to learn what the charges are soon enough and we will be back on this. I cast shortly after we find that out. So I really don't want to spend too much time on this today, because we're in that weird in between point where yes, trump has been an indicted, but we don't yet

we're going to know soon enough. It seems like public opinion outside of the republican primary polling that you mentioned from yahoo. News has been pretty stable honestly, that did kind of surprise me, the degree to which trump's support in the republican primary you know potential republican primary ticked up. It was up to fifty seven percent of folks supporting trump over dissenters, dissenters down to thirty one percent and that's after, been like roughly even in the mid forties four months, so I think we do want to keep watching that. But, as I mentioned, we're gonna be back here soon enough. So, let's move on to this weekend's other news, which is that former arkansas governor s a hutchinson got into the republican primary now I dont think we're looking at the headlines throughout the week ends the his announcement didn't really seem to break through, all of the other news that's happening at the moment, but we do like to focus on elections here at five, thirty, eight, and so we are going to take some dedicated time. He said that he's going to.

the more formal announcement at the end of April, so maybe we'll talk more about it then as well, but just at first blush like what is, is a hutchinson pitch to republican voters and are they gonna pick up what he's putting down jeffrey, I think a such as it is looking to be like a sort of more traditional republican conservative in the race he wants to have the party move forward sort of past trump, and perhaps I get something he gets back to sort of hutchinson background. he's been? A republican parties are stored for a long time is from our I received from arkansas markets. I used to be kind of this. This modern conservative, blue leaning state in a democratically states I should, since political career, starts out at a time of Democrats, are dominant in arkansas and he IRAN's a wide a couple times and lost. I like it It is early nineties, he got elected to congress at your house because his brother

actually won a us senate seat in nineteen. Ninety six hudson then later gets appointed to the bush administration. So he's connected there. He was in the bush administration as head of the the drug enforcement agency. So you know that's about the background, and then he gets elected governor in twenty fourteen in arkansas. So You know he's got this long career he's. I think seventy one, seventy two, and so you can sort of see how he would maybe connect to a maybe at this point what seems like sort of an older version of what we knew the republican party to be the pre trump republican party, and I don't think it's a coincidence at the same time that in the handful of posies been included in he's either at about zero or one percent, and I think that probably reflects How appealing that could be? Obviously he's not that well known, so that's gonna play a factor in it too, but I hear asking where the path is for someone, like Mr Hutchinson is too terrain

really try hard, because I don't think there is one ok. So, given that Amelia, what's the point, running at all. I mean why do any of these longshot candidates run? They think what they're running on is important wants to get his name out there, Think he'd genuinely is alarm, by the idea of trump continuing to be the republican party standard bearer and feels like he is the answer for reasons that are a little bit more opaque to me.

The other thing about him is that, even though he does have this long history in the republican party he broke with his conservative legislature from the arkansas legislature recently has gotten very, very conservative, and he had, for example, a high profile veto of a ban on gender, affirming care for transgender youth back in two thousand and twenty one. That was one of the first of these bands that we're seeing pass and state legislatures across the country this year and the legislature ended up overriding his veto. But it's not just that he's not in favour of trump and willing to rebuke trump and refute trump. There are also situations where he has broken with his party on social issues, where there is quite a bit of cohesion within the party right now. So I think that is a potential strike against him as well, in the republican primarily

the the veto is actually very interesting as arkansas eyes is one of a handful of states where all you need to override again there's veto as a majority in the legislature. It's like you know two thirds or something or three fifths. It's just a simple majority. and so what the archives of the republicans overwhelming budget cities in the state legislature. There Hutchinson knew that he was going to get overridden like it was. It gives a guaranteed right, but he's still vetoed it. So I think it's it. It becomes perhaps even more interesting and symbolic in that way, because it was just a foregone conclusion that he was going, of a written yeah- and I think he was. He also signed a very strict, a law that would be an abortion in if reverses waiters overturned. Can twenty nineteen back then? I think the

the overturning of roe versus wade was feeling a lot more hypothetical to people in state legislatures and later he kind of expressed some regret and was saying that, maybe he you know would have thought differently about the bill if he had known that it would actually become law

so you know that is an example of a place where he he did do what you know his more conservative legislature was leading on, but then he kind of tried to walk it back later. Yeah I mean Hutchinson went so far as to say that trump should withdraw from the republican primary in announcing his bid for president, of course, trump will not be listening to asa hutchinson and making decisions about how to campaign going forward. But for folks, like Hutchinson, who seem like their priority is for trump to not win the republican primary. What is the best move like because he's decided to run for president instead of say, you know, start working on behalf of the disanto campaign like what is the tactic there is he just saying like this is one other position from which I can lob attacks at trump and eventually get behind whoever the alternative is.

If that is the assessment, is that a good assessment? Then your? What do you think there is a distinction between in canada to want to stop tromp in Canada who want stump trump ism? And I actually think that that is a hutchinson doesn't really care about tromp himself. I don't think I describe him. His anti trompe voted for trump twice, but he's just like more, like you know, kind of himself like a traditional conservative like laid back like he didn't, seem to have he wasn't, and in Adam kinzer or liz Cheney, he didn't seem to have a ton of er. see and listen. I like january sex with which he you know, did kind of call out trump on. He didn't seem all had to have a lot of urgency about stopping trump and the one before that but he did, he does seem like he doesn't want trump ism to take over. So I think for somebody I guess the hutchinson endorsing. Santas is kind of pointless because disasters, it is just bringing trump ism without trump

whereas Hutchinson truly wants a different mike direction for the republican party, weary, he was, ok would Donald trump until january sex, so that would suggest that he's basically ok with trump as I'm, but The breaking point was generally sixth thunder, like maybe not ok, with the like crazier anti democratic stuff. So then what the santa still fit that bell yeah. Maybe I guess it is interesting that you would interpret it that way as I, what kind of interpret the opposite better No, I mean, like you know, as well as your jeffrey in and Amelia mentioned summit. his kind of governing decisions, are then to take, to put it mildly, decisions that on dissent as if he were governor of our kids, I would not have made and so I think that the that kind of lake strong conservative, tendency arm Hutchinson is a guy who was conservative in the nineties and two thousands, but wouldn't be considered. You know, like conservative or conservative republican today right and that's kind of what he you know, kind of what it represents, and you know quite frankly,

I don't think he is gonna, be siphoning a lot of votes from anybody. You know it doesn't really matter if these guys kind of jump, Japan, it doesn't hurt. You know like socially and this point when no votes are being cast light is a asa Hutchinson still going to be active candidate for president in january or february. When I went to him, you're voting and you know maybe not, and- and in that case you know if, if hey, he just wants to get up on a debate stage and and kind of make the case for you know as as probably doomed as that case is, if you want to make a case for a kind of george w bush style of conservative republicanism. Go crate

I mean one area where he has actively split from disadvantaged is on ukraine and what the? U s is interest is in the russia, ukraine, war. Dissenters obviously has said that the EU s does not have an interest and Hutchinson explicitly said that he thinks that's wrong, so I think you're right Nathaniel that he is seeing himself as someone who is bringing forward this kind of older vision of conservatism and yeah. You know, maybe for him it just is about getting on a debate stage and airing his ideas and trying to make trump into santas and anyone else who weapon

hence this newer ciampi, our version of republicanism answer for that, the right, because one of the things you can do as a candidate on a debate stage or just in the press in general. Is you can potentially move the posts of where, like moderation is so if only trump and sent us are running, then moderation has to be somewhere between those two. But if like Nicky Hayley and is a hutchinson are also running, then they can compare their ideas against trump and dissenters would potentially have to like position himself, considering that haiti and hutchinson are also on the debate stage. You know making their own arguments such as, like one potential way that candidates who ultimately have no shot at winning can change the course of a primary potentially, but I think we'll just have wait and see how this plays out for now definitely looks like nathaniel you're idea that this ultimately doesn't matter. That much is reflected in the amount of news coverage of hutchinson's announcement. He he picked not the greatest weekend to leak,

ursus sort of her think that that is stored in areas like the perfect weekend, thou it's like his pitches, don't elect trump and jumped to sky island. Aided, say you think that it would be great aiming for him at the time. I not to pile on esa, but I guess it's it's a blood sword in the sense that yeah he can go on the sunday shows and be like we shouldn't elect the person who just got indicted by it- also means that it has news itself is going to be stepped on in a major way. So we will see what happens next. I have a feeling that, having been doing this for seven and a half years, the trumpet I was about to, what out the sun? Why? You prove me wrong? Let's move on and talk a little bit about the elections on tuesday in wisconsin and Chicago today's podcast cast is brought to you

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Expensive state supreme court race in american history, Amelia and Jeff. You wrote about this for the site. This race is technically nonpartisan, but in practice has been you know anything by. It's been very partisan. How has kelly and protege. What's position themselves on the issues of media pursue its, I think made it very clear where she stands on a number of key issues. That will mean a be very relevant if liberals are able to take control of the was constant supreme court and those two major issues are abortion and redistricting. She has not said how she would rule in an ongoing law suit over wisconsin's nineteenth century abortion ban, which has been in effect since last summer, has made it effectively impossible to get an abortion in wisconsin, because this is one of these really old bans that just basically says no worse than in any circumstances,

is endless the pregnant person who is about to die, and that is not popular in wisconsin, and so she has basically said that she, she is endorsed by a bunch of pro choice groups that she supports abortion rights. So it's pretty clear where she lands on that. And then the other issue is redistricting and the fate of whiskers since congressional district and legislative maps, both of which are quite friendly to Republicans and if all ready gone through a round of litigation like that could be reopened. If the liberals had control of the court- and she has said basically that she thinks that the maps are not fair, kelly, interesting lee, while I think it is, it is very easy to guess at his you shouldn't on abortion has been trying to basically argue that his views on abortion don't

so you know he's done legal work for antiabortion groups in the state he's very conservative, but he has It's me, you know he has not been full throated in his support for the united settry abortion man, and that makes a lot of sense because it's you know it's like less than ten percent of wisconsin. I'd think that abortion should be illegal. In all cases, it's really not a popular position, so those have been the major issues where the candidates have been distinguished and in the case of courtesy, what's actively distinguishing themselves. Have there been any other prominent issues in this election? I mean you know: should we kind of think of this election as a referendum on a

and in the way that we were thinking about some of the special elections that took place last year after the dogs decision came down. I tend think it's a bit of a continuation of what we saw in the twenty twenty two bit terms. You have kelly and kelly's allies running, adds essentially think courtesy which is sought crimes gave out too too lenient of sentencing as a judge in the lock county, this policy, which is running a lot of ads talking about how she's imports. Sure that she's in favour of abortion rights I'm so these are sure that the dynamic and obviously we saw a lot of that into twenty two I'm so it's it seems like it's a bit of a continuation of that and obviously in the twenty twenty two The terms that seed Democrats feel like they got a bit of a wind if you, if you're saying those resort of core sort of competing issues that given the results, especially on the senate side. That Democrats came out a bit better for

and I guess we will see if that, if there is a continuation of that industries as well yeah I mean we do have very little data, but from whatever we do have, does it look like not only the issues, but the outcome will be a candy, creation of twenty twenty two. I would say that it's it's a week to be clear. We have basically no appalling. It's the only survey that we've seen that that, at least as of this weekend have that had popped out in public. I was actually from a republican pollster sponsored by one of the leading sp outside supporters for kelly and by the polls still had courtesy, which ahead by a couple of points. So it's we don't have much to go on for the pulling perspective prefer to say, which is greatly out raised kelly. She and her allies about spain, kelly and his allies in terms of advertising and

the liberals. The liberal candidates in the primary lead, I think, was fifty four to forty six. Fifty three forty seven I dont know Tom had now in the first round, in terms of their combined percentage forces Kelly and the other concerns candidate? Who was on the ballot? The primary- so I think, liberals feel like they probably have an edge headed into it, but in others, or a couple of referee, there's a couple of constitutional amendments on the ballot and a non binding referendum that basically asks whether people who apply for like welfare benefits should have to work and its essential. If you could send and there's been criticism that conservatives and though wisconsin legislature, basically wanted something like down about to try to join up republican turn out, and so you know it's. It's We still have time to go on to say, like with much certainty about whether it is going I think there are reasons to think the protocol, which should be viewed as a favorite, but how much of a favor? This is hard to say.

I mean the fundraising differential with something that we did see in some key re says in the twenty twenty two met terms where the abortion rate side just blew the other side out of the water in terms of fundraising, so you know Hey, that's not determinative this time around, but it's interesting to see that same pattern repeating itself going into tomorrow's election year. I mentioned at the top of the show that this is the most expensive state supreme court race in american history. I feel, like we ve, seen a lot of those records broken in recent years, just because the amount of money going into even just state level. Politics has been somewhat astronomical in this case, but

tens of millions of dollars, where's all that money coming from, so for her to say which she's she has outraised kelly in terms of their individual campaigns. Very significantly. It's like. I think it was like twelve million to two million. I don't remember, I don't remember the numbers of top ahead now, but it's it's. It's a lot now about two thirds of a per se which had raised sort of in the month and a half leading up to this actually came from the wisconsin democratic party and where there was causing democratic party, was getting that money included a lot of well known funders on the liberal side of the aisle, so George soros. For example, it gave a million jamie pritzker the billions, governor of Illinois gave a million dollars to the democratic party that was then given to a sandwich by the way and your point not bars race, but both political parties are very clearly backing there, their candidates, because on the republican side since richard July, is a very well known billionaire

mega donor on the republican side, a lot of conservative causes, while his wife gave a half million dollars to the republican party that was then sent over to Dan Kelly's campaign. So you can see like these partisan. actions, but for kelly, most of the spending is actually been from allies, not through his campaign. As line and some others have spent their their packs, have spent a lot of money on adds in one of the action that the little wrinkles in this, though, is that campaigns are individual campaigns, get a much better rate when they purchase add time. I'm is much cheaper for them from outside groups, so per se, which, in her allies of not only outspent kelly but the fact that most of the spending has been through per se, which is campaign and has actually given them like very much. You can't just really. The dollar amounts to understand sort of the degree to which, like the points buying in terms of the number of television advertisements

if greater upper to say which side, because she gets cheaper rates or she's, been able to take advantage of the cheaper rates at a much too much greater degree. You know this being a somewhat high profile election, considering that this is an off year means that the results may get a decent amount of attention, especially because it's in a purple state and I'm curious like before we got those results and narratives start forming. Given the electorate that we expect in this kind of an election in our off year, state supreme court election. Should we take the results to indicate something about the trends of wisconsin politics?

or is this a kind of like one off visits? Unique dont, build it into your like narrative model of what could happen and twenty twenty four in some ways, this is similar to a special action, and we ve talked on the show before about how special elections can be predictive of the next election cycle, but only when you look at them in aggregate an average them over time. You know this is a big election and state wide but I would always be hesitant about drawing conclusions or any one. Election arms is also a non partisan election. Technically you know, I think, that The five percent was consonants will know which party the candidates are affiliated with, but not going to on the ballot where'd, you think makes it a little dicey or two to come of use? As a straight like go, Democrats were performed by this and therefore binds gonna win reelection. What's turnout gonna be like a third of eligible voters higher. What are we thinking here? Probably about a third jeffrey? What you think

yes, actually was interesting. Is the primary had the highest turn out of village voters of any recent spring primary as they caught in wisconsin February primary election with twenty two percent of the voting eligible population. Zog idea. To put that contacts, you know yet. Seventy percent or more of the voting eligible population voted twenty. Sixteen and twenty twenty and age presidential election, in november, so you're just talking about a much smaller part of the electorate. Now, in the April general, it's been, it's tended to be in the thirties, but what is corresponded with the presidential primary because in presidential years, if it happened an even year, the judicial election would happen at the same time as the presidential primary in April and was constant. our drive more turn out, but even then it's it's only in recent times only twenty sixteen with both parties have comparative presidential primers going on. Did it eclipse forty percent of the voting elsewhere, popular

so my numbers sorted than in my head of, like thirty five thirty six cause, that's What we ve seen sort of the highest otherwise but it does seem like is alot of engagement, this spending and you'd have to think that, with all the spending, in the view of the races being competitive, that like that those factors would tend to drive higher turnout. So in the grand scheme of like judicial actions and was concerned, it would presumably be on the higher side. But if you're thinking about like presidential elections, you ve talk, it may be half a baby, a little more than half. If it's really high turn up, I mean, I think the way I'm thinking about this in terms of abortion specifically, is that this is just kind of a signal of how much the issue has persisted as a real motivator among significant key democratic blocks,

and that's really important, because I think one of the big lessons that we we should take from the twenty twond human terms is that you know abortion wasn't rising to the top of democratic democrats. Priority lists everywhere, but in places where there were really serious bans in play where people were aware that abortion access was very seriously restricted. This was a really big motivator for democrats and especially for some sub groups of Democrats, and so one of the big questions I've had. Is you now ok

are now six months past six months. Five months I dunno time is time is too much for me, where some amount of time past the twenty two and eighteen midterms and and- and you know how much her Democrats really thinking about this- and people have kind of had more time to get settled into a post, dobbs reality, or they just accept in that. This is the way things are on abortion now or are there are states where you know this could continue to be a significant motivating issue going the twenty twenty four and that's especially relevant, because there are states like arizona where full abortion bans are still making their way through the courts. So, while a lot of the full bans are going to european states, lake arkansas, where, like I don't Now Democrats may be mad and motivated, but I don't think it's going to make a big difference in two thousand and twenty four. There are some state

where this could be a big deal, you know Florida another example. There are poised to pass a six week ban. So I think that the way I would think about it, and I would be looking at turn out and margins again, just as a sign of how much do you Democrats still care about this? Are they willing you nor they tuned in enough that they're gonna turn out for this election and that you know at another time I think would have been a very very, sleeping election that we would never be talking about on the pact cast your well. You know, I don't know, never say never reach. We would like our elections. There was gone for illegally and we as a european. I read it s only when you have been talking about over. Like you know, twenty minutes- and we also we wouldn't be live logging, which I should say we are going to be alive blogging tomorrow. Night were actually gonna start in the afternoon

with our eyes, trained on the expected unsealing of the statement against trump. So folks, please follow, along with us, go to five thirty. Eight dot com really talking about trump throughout the day, I'm actually going to be downtown at the courthouse talking with people on the street and we'll see you know like have you were a juror? How impartial? Could you be in this? It's see what new yorkers have to say about that and then, as we move along into the evening, we are going to train our focus on the wisconsin supreme court and chicago mayoral elections. You're going to have lots of five. Thirty eight live blogging to follow tomorrow evening, tuesday evening I should say you're listening to this on tuesday and then also say, we're gonna have a podcast on Wednesday morning, reacting to both the unfeeling of the indictment, and the results in the election. I know folks that you may have wanted an emergency podcast tuesday. After even once the indictment is unsealed, but we are going, The busy live blogging the elections, so you'll just have to hold tight. This is what happens when there's too much news. One time

Let's move on now and talk about the chicago may also raised before we go chicago mare. Lorry like four as folks know Have you been listening to the pilot? This pact has lost her reelection bit in the first round of voting in february, and now the two top vote gutters are facing off to become the next mayor. They are bred and Johnson, a progressive whose backed by the teachers, unions and pull values a centrist backed by the police union. I think folks can probably guess that public safety and criminal justice you know like in other cities, has been a hot topic in this election Nathaniel. How his debate plead out. You know in the months leading up to now. Well, basically, the the debate on public safety has been playing out. That's, I think, a strong point for pole of Alice, who is the more conservative, canada. He is the appropriate candidate and

it's our pro him he's been endorsed by the the local police union, which is a potent force in politics in chicago, and he has been attacking his opponent, Brandon Johnson, for his past support for essentially defending the police. You know he has said that it was not just a slogan but a real political goal. I Johnson has been coming back from from that really back paddling on on what he said back in and twenty twenty on that issue. But, as you know, it is something that that has come back to to hunt him, on the flip side. You have a kind of johnson he's, also kind of talking about crime, but in a way that talking about kind of funding, some of the the more root causes of crime he's also talked about raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for a whole host of social services, including things for education. The case has been another big issue. Both of these candidates. Backgrounds have been an education,

so of was the sea of chicago public schools and also in philadelphia has been a big supporter of charter. Schools and passively also takes a kind of a more moderate position on that whereas Johnson was in. As for the teachers union was an actual t, it will point right right, he's a teacher himself There has been endorsed by the teachers union, which is another powerful force in chicago politics. So so it really is a very interesting, very stark ideological contrast, I would say, probably the most conservative in them progressive canada emerged from the primary It's her garden and also you know, as with any kind of urban politics. Race is a dimension of Alice as white johnson is black, and I suspect that you'll see that show up in the voting patterns as well. Yeah, you said you know. The most conservative and most progressive options emerged from that primary as a result of what kind of voting patterns I could we see who got what support where

how do I know that, as you did with new york, in LOS angeles, you broke down chicago by a sort of political neighbourhood where do values and Johnson get their backing from going beyond the union's? But when The actual voters yeah. So I hope folks can, on tuesday morning, go to five thirty at dot com and check out my my article about the the four political neighborhoods of chicago and know. I always have fun digging into kind of the the local voting patterns we went word by word. Basically, I think you know, I assume most people who are listeners podcast aren't going to know. You know what the neighborhoods in chicago are like. So I'll kind of make broader generalizations about the voting blocks. So in general you know, I think that johnson support johnson kind of surged late in the primary, a lot of like Chicago's progressives, who tend to live on like the north side. You know tend to be kind of you know. Young white, you progressive voters. They voted for lorry lightfoot in twain, nineteen,

she really disappointed them and they were kind of fishing around for another candidate and end seem like they. They settled on hudson in not in the first round. He just kind of narrowly beat lightfoot there, but he did when a lot of those precincts and kind of the most progressive areas. Chicago's had like many cities, kind of a a burgeoning ds, democratic socialists of america movements, I've seen some socialist members get elected to the visit accounts. And a lot of those same wards ended up voting for johnson. Values, on the other hand, is supported by the conservatives who do exist in Chicago. You generally see kind of a pocket of like pro business democrats in like downtown on the areas immediately north of of that But then you also have a fair amount of water kind of have traditionally been caused kind of, like quote unquote, white ethnic voters. So you know these are working class areas like you know traditionally.

Irish, american and polish american areas of Chicago that are a little bit further flung. Unlike the northwest and southwest quadrants those are really some of like valses base, given his has focused on public safety, especially and then the the kind of the other two voting big voting box in chicago, are essentially black voters and hispanic voters in the first, black voters attended to go for lightfoot, and has many voters tended to go for a representative to garcia, who is kind of the fourth main canada in the race. So Well, they are in large part up for grabs, and I think that is going to be a big determination of who wins. The runoff is that you know who voters of color end up opting for yeah, I mean. Is it at this point: do we have any more pulling than in the wisconsin supreme court race we have had a lot of pulling in chicago, actually like far more pulling in chicago than in wisconsin, which is actually shocked me, considering that I would expect that was constant would be more interesting to a national audience and also its a lot easier to

all state that everybody pause every two years rather than a municipal action, but but we have seen polls that have a generally arm put values. We re I'm sorry nothing or did you just say that it's easy to pull wisconsin because I'm pretty sure it has like the biggest errors back to back twenty sixteen- and I was very that's a good plan. I guess that could be scaring people off but like in a like generally speaking, the smaller the jurisdiction, the harder it is to call and like chicago, I guess Chicago is of as a very large city. It's basically, you know it's almost the size of kansas, but this is like. Basically it's a it's a primary. You know both vallis and johnson are Democrats, and so you know it's always hard to know like voters fluid and primary. So if I were a poster, I would rather see my reputation in wisconsin, but anyway that was attendant in the form of the chicago meritorious that we have seen. Values has tended to be a few points ahead of johnson generally within the margin of error, though an

look into cross tabs does look like Johnson is generally leading among black voters, and again Johnson himself is black. Where as hispanic voters are generally seem to be leaning toward vallis, and so you know, and again kind of made me perhaps reflecting the fact that that demographic has has shifted right in a couple of years. So it can because there are, though, you know more black voters in chicago than there are hispanic voters and, of course, the margins with it. Kind of their base are gonna matter like in the first round, valets was like running up shop in numbers. Among kind of these like working class areas, he was winning like sixty percent of the vote or as Johnson done to just be kind of eking out the areas even in like progressive parrot places, but also he was facing more competition right cause, like you know, let Chuy garcia kind of identifies as progressive, so he was maybe siphoning off some of that vote. Maybe

well similar lightfoot vote. So it it's hard to know. I you know I obviously like just looking at the top lines again, I think you'd have to say that this race leans toward vallis, but it is also competitive. Yet to defend his point, we should bishop, garcia, doris Johnson, so you do see sort of the progressives lining up behind Johnson and thinking about sort of like racing. The city, the overall population of chicago is like a third white and basically like thirty percent black thirty percent latino. But there is definitely a larger voting age population that is white and then black and then latinos. Third, so this is where, like the margins, I think will be very important. It's like how much can johnson nowadays, voters suspicion the south side of chicago cistercian. Weathers, I mean it. We should mention asked she I was one of a segregated cities in the country and the EU

see this very much in the voting patterns to it. So if, if Johnson is able to run a brutal large margins in south side that they could give him and keep it close among latinos, I could give him a path at the same time of values is keeping jobs its march downwards, outside an and winning some of those heavily latino parts be be that he's he's probably on his way to victory. Yeah I mean flip side for a valid sooner. He has been battling delegations that he is not really a Democrat, you democratic state is not going to play well in chicago, but he was suddenly endorsed by democratic, senator dick turban, so he does, also have some kind of major endorsements behind him that have come in recently and you know Galen you where you were asking about the most important issues looking in the cross, helps if that northwestern pole there.

I Nathaniel was mentioning, and even though education has also been an issue, it seems like for voters. This is really revolving around the issue of crime and about fifty are exactly fifty percent of registered. Voters said it was an important issue and and one really interesting. Difference, though, was that eighty percent of register voters over sixty five years old said that reducing crime was an important issue compared to thirty one percent of eighteen to twenty nine year olds. So you know that's a pretty huge age gap and it'll be interesting to see you know where, where that motivates people does it are? You know if the kind of

young, progressive folks in the north side of chicago are less motivated by crime. You know: are they still very motivated to turn out for johnson? Have kind of older people are really caring about crime? Who do they turn out for who they vote for, and you know in certain parts of the city it would seem like Vallis is getting a lot of his support from from some of those people. So it'll the interesting to see how all of that breaks down yeah? You know we thought about add spending and in spending overall wisconsin's precarious, but and the chicago mayoral race Omby also see values with a pre significant advantage over johnson between vow, Wilson. His allies at impact came out at the end of last week with a report that said that valves and his Alice has been twice as much as johnson on an advertising across tv internet other things, so that you know that sort of edge

it could be very powerful, especially since we already seeing we have other signs that vows may have a slight edged begin with as a sort of ads, they were running it. Values has deftly what a lot of ads talking about jobs, and, having said that, you want to defend the police that shown up a lot and the vows talking about how he is going to fight crime and in chicago and in really prioritize poet. Safety, those kinds of words Annie sides a lot about his endorsements, because he's trying to fight back this idea that he is is not sort of a truly democratic there's there there's various like like radio recordings of him talking back the day where, where he has made statements, there were basically used to say that he baby, recycle omar Serve at every wasn't that much of a democratic and ended

has given an lorry lightfoot, unlike the primary and democrats, have tried to use that to attack values for not being in a basically a real democrat and so Thousands advertising has also been definitely trying to fight back against that idea by talking about olives endorsements from various democrats. So you see it also reaffirmed that he is in favour of abortion because there was especially the primary tax on him, saying that he wasn't in favour of abortion rights, and obviously we know how salient that issue is right. Now, among Democrats chicago and while the will republicans voting in this election Chicago. Is you know, extremely democratic? So you know that that's going to be an issue that, if, if he, if they could have made a case,

it's the vous is really anti. Abortion that would have really been would have been really problematic for him. Yeah, I mean to wrap up on a similar question that I asked of the reason wisconsin we've seen now several big cities, with this kind of wind up between a progressive and a more moderate or more conservative democrat, and new york. We saw the more moderate candidate when Eric atoms. In los angeles, we saw the more progressive, although still pretty, mainstream democratic, Karen bass when there once again before the narrative gets baked in and we have the actual results. How much should we think of this race as emblematic of the direction of american, said Overall, the I think it's harder with cities, because they are so idiosyncratic. Different cities are different from each other. There are obviously broad similarities, but you know that the candidates in the kind of people,

I called relationships in and says, are kind of notoriously just like complex and specific, and so I don't think he people should be drawing any large conclusions from us other than you know. Just probably urban politics is complicated. It is urban cities just because they vote democratic are not necessarily liberal or progressive. We we know that you don't just by you know, even in los angeles, the the conservative candidate rick caruso got a decent chunk of the vote. That will certainly be the case in chicago as well, regardless of whether vallis wins or loses. So I think, just like the takeaway should be of city. Politics are complex, but not necessarily drawing any conclusions about. You know progress over you meal, meant is on their eyes or the moderates are striking back or whatever. While I mean when we look at the results in a recent national elections, it does look like cities are move

The right, though, doesn't it. There is some evidence of that to some extent, although we were mainly talking about the twenty twenty presidential election and I think it's over the six, where I'd like to see it over over a few elections the others. Still there is some evidence sooner, for instance, in like latino heavily latino parts of like your city front, I've, got an asian or gets an asian american that trunk gained, notably from very wasn't twenty. Sixteen, for instance, I do think especially with asian americans. Tat gets really thorny, because asian american is extremely broad term and there are agreed here you're lumping in people whose, whose origins are like the site.

the indian sub continent, with people who have chinese or japanese back out. Just is so really really broad thing, and you know somebody is the vietnamese america's made may have a very different perspective on politics and someone who is indian american, for instance. So I, like I want to be like full about that, but you definitely saw in twenty twenty, especially in los angeles, zoo or the los Angeles area. In some areas where we know that there are sizable vietnamese american populations, for instance, that there was there was a shift to the right in those places, I'm so there? There is something there and I guess it's a question of whether in a trends continue, but it does suggest that the that there is the potential for republicans to have a more die.

This coalition. At the same time, though, we shouldn't be like totally overstating that is at the end of the day is still a very, very white party, or I will, as I mentioned before, we are going to be like walking through the evening as we get results in. So if you want more specific answers to the questions that we have been asking on, today's podcast tune in to five thirty eight dot com, but we're not leave it there. For now, thank you so much nathaniel, Amelia and Jeff thanksgiving day, Galen and folks as while a reminder that we have a live show in new york city on April nineteenth to get your tickets go to five thirty eight dot com, slash live show can be a lot of fun hope to see you there. My name is gail and and a rothschild is in the control room and tony chow is on video editing, you're, going to touch by emailing us at podcast at five three dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple podcast store or wherever you get your podcasts or even better. Tell someone about us. Thank you for the

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