I probably want to actually try to go to sleep at like one thirty, I'm too wired. I can't go to sleep right away. It takes me like an hour Nathaniel. This is why on live blog nights as soon as we're done, I pop a melatonin and drink a glass of wine. However, then in the morning I feel like hung over basically when you do that gail, and especially with the line man that take shout believe me, that's the goal, that's the goal. Hello, and welcome to this early morning primary reaction edition of the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm given drink on tuesday, seven states held primary contests, california iowa Montana new jersey, mississippi, new mexico and south Dakota, still awaiting some final results, but we have plenty to talk about overall

more moderate candidates, did well against challengers from the right and left flanks on both sides of the aisle although there was a sizable protest about in some instances last night I served as a test of the strength of progressive appeals in california's, big cities and they appeared to struggle progressive, Let's go dear chase, a boo deal was recalled in a landslide and former republican rick caruso advanced. To the lost Angeles mayoral general election alongside democratic representative, Karen back, there were couple of surprises throughout the night, notably in iowa, where once rising democratic, star, abbe thinkin our lost the Senate primary to MIKE franker. The crushing, of course, remains whether aid I'm a crime has any chance of winning a state right, a watch and in a state that has one decisively to the right here it meet to discuss at all. Is politics, and others are frozen, said good morning, sir as a gowan morning? Hey all how much sleep last night? Well,

like jeffrey and Nathaniel. Here I I did not have the late night energy last night, so I think I got a solid seven hour so I'll take it or my darker, you are by far the best rested person on this podcast. We are going to be relying heavily on your today. Sarah also here with us, is, elections analysing and then a of annual hey Galen has a gallon very yet how much they we got six hours. I guess I went to bed at two thirty, okay, that's not so bad. The key is to sleep in meteor, which is why I'm not showered if you're watching this on youtube. I look like an insane person right now. as is elections analyst jeffrey scally, hey hey. Are you how much sleep did you? I guess,

five hours cause. I woke up at like seven fifteen cause, I'm a crazy person and also I had to take my car to get maintenance before this. So you know the real world calls so there's like so much. We can talk about we're going to try to do the cliff notes version of the night, but I want to just begin by asking what your take a ways were from the evening, I tried to outline some of my take a ways but sarah. What were you take away from the evening last night's primaries were really kind of a deep dive on house races. There weren't a lot of statewide races that were super competitive. There was the democratic senate primary in iowa as reference at the top gallon. But of course, the real question there, as you know, will frank and be able to defeat gr. sleep come the general and, as we were discussing on the live blog, that's just not likely, particularly in the political environment, looks like we'll be headed in november, but you know,

the top news story coming out of last night is actually the san francisco recall election as you were referencing as well, and that I think, is because, within the democratic party, a big trend that I think the media like struggle on two is any time. There's like a progressive, moderate fisher, particularly well a progressive that had been elected like the dean is then recall earlier this year there were the you know schoolboy. Elections. Also in san francisco and some of the more progressive members being recalled there there's a lot. happening in California. You know about how progressive that state wants to be. I think we saw a lot of the primaries that you know. More of the moderate candidates prevailed against some of the progressive challengers who had been running, and I think it's and if you know s, That has this reputation of being really progressive, but, as we saw in both the san francisco, recalls the district attorney and then in the loss and jealous may are over but you know, liberal is

in california, doesn't necessarily mean progressivism. Ism Mazzoni always reject one they take was how weak some of the showings by incumbent members of congress were usually you don't have to pay attention to their renomination. They win with like eighty percent, or something like that before I saw a lot of income and struggle, even if none of them have lost quite yet so, for example, in mississippi's, third and fourth districts, it looks like representatives Michael gast and Steve palazzo are both going to go to run offs that they may very well lose, especially in the third district on that guests district. That one really took me by price. He voted for the January sixth commission, which is really the only reason I can think of for why there is apparently this discontent with him among the republican base. There you also saw representatives like stage johnson in south dakota and Chris Smith, in new jersey, both get less than sixty percent of the vote, which is pretty

inaudible. They are more kind more old school republicans. They both voted to certify the twenty twenty election, for example, Neither of them we were like seriously. Thinking would lose, and even last I know there is a result, came in. They never work. Taking early close to being threatened, but as just a notably weak, showing and then in California. You also had a couple of weeks showing that some of that can be chalked up to redistricting and and lions just during a lot but david valid day ho who voted for to impeach trump but never really made a concerted effort to defeat him. So people just kind of assumed he was fine but he's down at, like, I think, twenty six percent of the vote last I saw which is enough to make the second run off slot in california, but he's kind of got to republicans, nipping on his heels there and that race isn't called so, even if he survives that's clearly, you know kind of a a show of dissatisfaction for him, and what do we chalk this all up to? Is it mostly the pros

from trump skeptical divide within the republican party, or is it at all more complicated than that? Yes, I think you know the fact these all republican representatives, I think, is telling and they're all kind of more like em like old school republicans who knew meat they haven't been anti champion. these aren't like Liz Cheney, or something like that, I guess with validate being the the exception, but they aren't true believers. You know and kind of did things that five years wouldn't be considered extraordinary like voting to start a final action, but now is kind of scene is outside the mainstream in their public and party. I do want to say I think redistricting is an important element of this, not in certain cases like south dakota, obviously which wasn't redistricting at all, but I do think it's important. Note that a lot of these people, like Chris Smith, got a lot of new turf in redistricting, and so too many people in in new jersey's. Fourth district, Chris smith is not their common so that kind of takes away a lot of the usual and commented vantage. The two point: nine percent

I thought it was really interesting, like going back to south dakota. As you said, not redistricting taffy howard had not raised that much money and, as you were saying like the race wasn't close but still got. Forty percent of the vote and I just kind of I think, speaks to the primaries here. In particular, on the republican side, we have seen more of a trumpy element, that's not going anywhere, and I think you know, as members continue to retire from congress. It's a real question of who the replacement ultimately end up being a could taffy howard win in an environment where dusty johnson isn't running, probably right down our javary. What were you take away from last night of what remains for the takeaways after sir and Nathaniel have done a great job of setting the table for us. yeah I mean I'm actually not sure I have much to add. You know. I also is really interested in the sort of weak and come before menses, but no idea, tradition was a factor, but you know Michael guess, kind of came out of nowhere in mississippi

for his his struggles, because that's the district that didn't actually change that much in redistricting, so whereas you have like Chris smith of new jersey, getting a lot of new turf and his district getting a lot or maybe it makes sense that a more conservative challenger could could get a fair bit of protest vote against them. But for guest to struggle and guess, didn't vote to certify the election results. So it's just a bit interesting that he performs for just performs a week we. So I don't know if I have any grand take ways beyond what, when certain fatal forty covered with just one question I have here- and I dont know if this plays into the weakness of moroccan incumbents at all. But one of the themes from yesterday's primaries was democrats trying to pick them.

Opponents in a way you know trying to boost the more trompe or more conservative option in districts that would be potentially competitive. How successful was that strategy for demo if the candidates? Well, I mean just a couple: immediate thoughts on that and the fifth district in new jersey is one word that made it may have actually panned out for democrats. You had de gregorio or de Gregorio, I'm not sure if it's or de de Gregorio, It's falling italian pronunciation foot facing fright, polota and fairy pillow to actually was the twenty twenty nominee for the republicans against against Josh, got hymer in this district. The democratic incumbent and got homer one re election and gottheimer. crasser actually basis sitting up mailers to republican voters are still the attacking polluter is being too much like trump but clear.

That was just the way of trying to convince republican, better say you should go for this guy cuz he's he's a and pluto it's like he's up by about five and de gregorio has actually conceded David barrios was favoured coming into the primary, had more organizational support in new jersey, so it was actually kind of unusual. For the guy, with the county line as they caught in new jersey. The new jersey republican organization, support who appears to have lost so I mean an example of getting the guy. You want, and I know Democrats you know in the in the twenty second district in california we do I have nearly enough votes there to really know how that's going to pan out, but we're talking about David, validate out who voted to impeach trump Democrats would really like him to finish. Third, because that's a blue soup of algeria has a track record weighing democratic winning seats, and chris math is the very trompe challenger who made his campaign about validated and peter

vote is not that far behind value and democrats, actually a house majority pac pack, the big outside spending pack for democrats. actually they were spending some money supporting rudy salas, the one democrat running there, but they also, some money trying to convince republican voters that they should vote for mathis and set about day or so validate a word. I actually finished. Third, once we get more votes there, which again we don't have a lot of votes. That would be a good example as well. I think it's follow closer to to the fortieth district, where we do have more votes in california, and it was a similar situation where young kim running in that district is an incumbent within. First, but not in that district itself. Only a small percentage of is formerly what she represented. Greg graphs was kind of running too. right ass if mom mood the Democrat who we know was at the top of the ticket and will vance was trying to target rats and that didn't really works. I think at the store

how did she that Democrats employed lake, it doesn't seem to have really made a lot of dense in the racist that they were targeting but, as Jeffrey said, the twenty second is a little too close to call at this point, but I think that today a legit out so it sounds like this strategy has mixed should not so great result is this. You know at across the whole primary season will have to see. Is this a somewhat risky strategy for democrats, given that we expect this fall to be pretty favourable environment to republicans? Might they just end up with more concern? bit of our more trompe candidates in congress, as opposed to more democrats. Yeah. Definitely, I think the highest profile instance of this. So far the cycle is back in pennsylvania and the governors race, where democratic, Joshua Pierrot was not so suddenly trying to encourage republicans to vote fur dogmas, drown, oh, who, as we ve covered on his part gas.

I attended the january six riot and is a big time election denier in that case in particular you know pennsylvania governor, is a very powerful position. I think maybe you can make the case that it's risky and, like a house seat when you're, just one out of four hundred and thirty five and pennsylvania is, is one in the cases where you know it looks like. Maybe that did make a difference mastery on a one by a decent amount, but he kind of had the momentum because trump endorsed him at the end. But he was already had a small lead, and maybe you could argue that that was because Shapiro had helped him by spending all that money, for him quote. Unquote quote so. You know after mastery on a one handicappers of the pennsylvania, governor's race moved it to lean democratic, and I think that's notable because it is, I suppose, like refuting what I was saying earlier, that like there is logic in that strategy, because I think part of the ideas for a general election, a candidate who just a Such a small portion of the republican base will not be able to build like a cross coalition that wins

What you're, seeing in these suburban districts is like a similar kind of logic that if you nominate the really right, leaning candidate, that's going to turn off a lot of this, isn't the best way to but it, but like fair weather republican democrats, who kind of you know, don't really vote for one party either all the time, but really you no kind of vote more with their pocket book may be, and I that's what you're saying like, particularly in the orange county, fortieth district and also in neutral. He is well were got. Heiner was m me no. Having of republican challenge there as well in sight, it makes sense, but I think their voters don't necessarily fall for it either is kind of I think what the results reflect from from last night yeah one question very hard going into tuesday's. Primaries was given that there were primaries in california and new jersey, where we saw a lot of sort of political change over the past decade. Basically, the suburbs moving quickly,

to the left during trump's presidency and the question remaining whether or not Democrats will be able to hang onto them either much. You can learn from primary it's about how motivated either party's voters are to turn out in a general yeah. This is it always a conversation point and there's. There are people in election twitter who love just looking at the totals for each party in primaries, and I do think that you can look sort of carefully at that and say alright, look republican turnout in the twenty twenty two primaries is definitely up everywhere and in some cases, by a lot over where it was in the two thousand and eighteen primaries. But the fact that democratic turnout is down in some cases or up even slightly

from twenty eighteen, it's sort of like you know, twenty team was a very democratic leaning year. So of course, democrats were really engaged now it looks like twenty twenty two is gonna, be a republican leaning year, so republicans are pretty engaged so like I think there's a lot of added value of digging into that is sort of my my point here and I think also he has to be careful with that, because if it's a contested race, if there are a lot of contested races on the ballot, but just for one party, which tends to be the one, that's really energized cause be more. Candidates want to run you no more republicans feel like care. What run run by win the nomination. I might built a win in this environment. You mean more likely to win that also effects it having more candidates more engagement. If democrats have a bunch of uncontested races on the ballot Why voters, showing up they're not is compelled to show up that's like another wrinkle, the after, have to keep in mind one point you'd made, though Jeffrey

in your california preview was because it's a talk to system there that looking at the vote share for all the democrats running verses. All the republicans- and I know we're stall, not nearly enough of the vote in California, a kind of draw conclusions, but now that You know tracks relatively closely to the general election, so we might be able to kind of draw something from their right. Yes, exactly right. That's where comparing party primaries versus the top two primary, like the top two primary, especially in washington state, has had a lot of predictive power. for me also to some extent, though there has tended to be a bit more variation, but at the end of the day, like Democrats are getting like fifty five percent, fifty six percent of the primary vote. In addition,

it's probably a good chance, they're gonna, win that seat and and the reverse. For republicans. If it's you know fifty two, forty eight for one party, you wouldn't want to write the other one off kind of yeah. Today's podcast is brought to you by our sponsor better help. How well would you take care of your car if you had to keep the same one, your entire life, while that's how brains work? So why don't we treat them that way, how we care for our minds affects how we experience life, so it's want to invest time and care in keeping them healthy. There are plenty of ways to support a healthy brain learning, a new language or taking power. Naps there's also better help online therapy better help is online therapy that offers video phone and even live chat. Only

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in the general election based on turnout last night. I think the difficult question there is that caruso is going to just keep. Spending incredible of money, and so I don't wanna likes or rule out the effect that could have. I think it's worth noting that, like the third place candidate, it kevin de Leon who ran for Senate in two thousand eighteen and ended up in a democrat versus democratic race against Dianne Feinstein. He got like eight around a seven eight per cent of the vote, and you would expect those voters to probably prefer Karen bass over rick caruso cars daily and say very much a progressive, Then it starts to get tough cause. Then you have to look at all the different candidates here and wonder where, where they're going to go, but then I also wonder about you know: there are a lot of people who voted. Who who didn't vote? I should say in the primer who will vote in november because primaries don't get nearly the same turn out as a general. Action, so you can see reasons why crusoe might lose, but you also

I don't want to write it off at all that he could very well when this race, with with the kind of money he's able to throw at it- and I mean the matter- click on it Kind of getting at crime was also a central issue, in LOS angeles and depending on how crime continues to, prize or not rise in cities across the. U s that will be a factor moving in november, in LOS angeles, actually had seen more violent crime than san francis go, which is really interesting, considering the wide margin in which booting was recalled from office. When things are, you know, arguably worse, in L. A and what's interesting, too, is like to some extent. Caruso and bass have the same message that they want to know, reduce homelessness, make sure that people are safe, but the way in which they talk about it is very different and I think caruso, because he doesn't have a background, and as being a democratic legislator in the way that bass does is much

or just like I'll throw money at the problem. I'll put a lot more police on the streets, and I think, if you're fed up with the status quo, that sounds really appeal but you know it's only june. It's a long way away from november yeah. I'm not sure that LOS angeles was so much of a repudiation of progressivism. You maybe Some kind of your initial expectations were. As my as we learn, I wrote for the site yesterday, los angeles is very politically diverse place and just because it is deeply democratic doesn't mean it is super progressive you. There are more moderate democrats and there are more progressive democrats, and I think that Chris especially given how much he spent you know the amount that he got it's about in line with what I would expect- and it still is, I think, well shy of the roughly sixty percent of people who voted to to recall Putin so and also bass wasn't running,

has like a true progressive. She was just kind of like a regular liberal kind of more like a Joe Biden type. There was one kind of true progressive in the race, but she was pulling it only like two percent tint and have any money and stuff like that, which I guess that is a bit more of an indictment of the progressivism, but I just don't think that they didn't really have a candidate. if, at the same time, I feel like we're so often dismissive of a lot of money going into an election, it's not necessarily telling who will win like otherwise make bloomberg it, be president right, but he was mayor.

Yeah but like to some extent for caruso like yes, he spent a lot of money. Yes, he was on the airwaves, but I think it might be tapping into something else as well. While it may look campaign is a confluence. The various factors you know so crusoe has maybe chosen the right time to run based on his profile and and sort of the sentiments of voters right now. But I think the money is a huge factor in why he's going to be in the general election in november and not like just some? Some random guy that's a big factor in a local race, especially one. That's like ostensibly nonpartisan. Like you know, voters are looking at the ballots not like they had d and r on the ballot by the name of the candidate, which is also something to keep in mind. It's like a little different from the rest of the races were talking about. Yeah I mean in the los Angeles area. There are some examples, two of progressive challenging incumbent democrats, maybe notably the thirty fourth congressional district

arr David Kim is running to rematch with incumbent jimmy gomez. This fall, Jimmy Graham, has beat him by six points in twenty twenty right now, with only forty percent of the expected vote reported jimmy gomez has fifty two percent David cam has thirty six percent. Is there anything we can say about races like that in California did progressives come up short is it too early to say? Do we kind of have to wait till the general? That's interesting you and I feel like that race, the gomez kim races more along racial lines. That's a district! If I recall correctly, that has a large hispanic and asian american population, so I think that that might be the division there, although to be fair, Kim is basically saying Jimmy Gomez. Isn't a real grass if he takes money from prisons are really you know, it's got a lot of the sort of he added. You call them a foe grass if that's been used

where, but it has a lot of the same messages that you see in other raises, where progressive are challenging the quarter, court, establishment and think about what happened in the eighth district. You know very blue. It was a very big question and though, like as the district got bluer with a moderate like garamendi, be able to advance what would the protest vote look like. We were talking about that earlier on the republican side, I think there was difference in what the protest vote looks like among Democrats, nobody was like forced to run off. I know you're talking about MC california, twenty second, and maybe that being an example of this, but like that again was a republican verses. Democrat challenge, like I don't think, we've seen the same, close competitive at least in last night's primaries. I think there's a difference when you look at the texas, twenty eightth, for instance, but looking at californy ray says it just wasn

As close as some of the like republican and republican challenges. Yeah, I think I think I was focusing more on LOS angeles. I'm not sure los angeles is telling us all that much, but I agree that in the rest of the state like progressive struggle, they think also of the thirteenth district, where the leading vote getter was democrat, adam gray, who's, a more moderate voice in the state assembly fill our bio who's, the I'm not sure he would like identify as like a sanders progressive, but he was running to gray's left. He is currently in third place with nineteen percent of the vote that race hasn't been called, but it looks like he's not going to make the the run off. So, let's test the narrative. At this point, I think a lot of folks are going to be focusing on the recall of jason routine in San Francisco. You know I don't know how many people will focus on the nitty gritty of the house, races in the rest of california, but we just have what should we make of all of this?

deep, blue california, isn't as progressive as you think, it's just a particular moment in time where a confluence of issues have aligned that are taking priority that don't necessarily negate some of the other progressive values of the state. Like focusing on things like climate, change, your wealth disparities or whatever else it may be, or is it like? You know, Kansas. You go so far to the left or the right that people reject it, and you end up with some. You know, decisions that seem contrary to the states. Overall,

elite bears are three narrative options. Maybe a choose your own adventure here. What should we make of all of it? Yeah I'm pretty skeptical at last one because for the most part, the Democrats in california- we- I think, we've talked about this before it's like California. Democrats are not necessarily like soup or left WHAM and I think there's a stereotype that they are. But you know thinking about that. Like thirteenth district race, Alex padilla and Gavin newsom are backing adam gray, the moderate in the race, the democratic party of california, has traditionally been pretty establishment. So, yes, you can. Maybe cherry pick the recall in san francisco as evidence of this, but I just I think I don't think it's really example of like everybody going too far left I mean there. Maybe

single instances of it. We, if California isn't left wing, then who is like what is the standard vat for what is like progressive our left rang were what have you, while I just think it's easier to look at. It is like private, individual cities cause. I don't know, statewide politics I mean you know if you're talking about like new york and other really blue state like what you call kirsten, gillibrand left wing, I mean she's, pretty liberal but within, like sort of the bounds of flight, the centre left to left of the democratic establishment she's not like at all costs, yo cortez, you now yeah. I think it's much more about like individual politicians. Obviously you have I suddenly Bernie sanders and causing quota courthouse, who are progressing but its heart. It paints such a broad brush for ST bernard's is your answer. Yeah vermont is not a therapy terrible, I guess, but but yeah, I'm in California. You know I I agree with Jeffrey. You know I think Galen, you know. The closest thing to the truth is what you said, which is that, like

democrats in california and across the nation are complicated and they are are on some issues, but not on others. I think we we this in in twain twenty, when there were a bunch of progressive flash liberal ballot measures in California that didn't pass, so they kept their ban on offer. What of action in place? They voted with uber and lyft to kind of keep their employees as independent contractors, which kept the benefits they could get and did all this by. You know voting while voting for Joe Biden by like a two to one margin so again. I just don't think it's it's not surprising. You know, I think that the routine recall you know fits into that pattern, but it also clearly, I think, reflects just like dissatisfied and within an individual city. Sarah mentioned the the school board recalls earlier this year. It seems like science has got it just like generally are not in the happy with the way things are going and I'm not sure that is super extract, believable out I'll, get a little grand for you

Kalen go for it. Sir. I think we're at this moment and our politics, where both parties bases or moving and more extreme directions. However, What you're seeing play out in the primaries- and I think that speaks a lot to the type of districts these candidates are making their bad said, is on the right public inside a challenge to the right. If it is addressed that is fairly were all you have a good sign. Says at overtaking the more moderate challenger doesn't mean it was always successful, as we saw last night, but then on the flip side, sing on the democratic side is worth more than, Progressive challenges are happening, there tend to be and more suburban areas. That often will have a highly educated college elite class As well as a racially diverse class, I So in this moment it's different than two thousand and eighteen, where we saw a lot of victories for the progressive movement in both two thousand and eighteen to some extent in twenty twenty There does seem to be at least some backlash happening to that, but I think it you know it's full.

To write that off, I think things are going to continue to point in different directions like even cisneros, doesn't win against Cuellar in the twenty eighth. She came really close and we can't discount that- and I think that's the future- that the democratic party and the republican it continues to head in just more and more competitive challenges and from really different wings of the party, I'm united Sarah, that you know the left wing, right wing of the republican party are kind of bubbling up, but I do think that the right wing or like the trompe wing. Let's say because traditional left right spectrum is somewhat confounded by trump is clearly like has captured the hearts and minds of the republican base and not in new jersey. I mean, I think it depends on the area right but like overall, like trump he candidates are doing. I dunno fried polenta one hundred and that you know kearsley got less than sixty percent

I don't know in open seats lake, you know only clearly. Candidates feel like they need to cause the up to tramp in order to win republican primaries, and I just think of the democratic side, like the kind of the left wing is not winning that fight over. Like they have some sporadic victories, they're kind of no balling up. You know you We've groups, like our revolution, try to be a little bit more targeted and an unambitious in how they have approached things, but overall the energy in the republic public in the democratic party. Excuse me clearly remains with the more mainstream Joe Biden types I would insist phrase it is energy. I agree with you that that's where the power remains, but I think the energy and how the party is framing itself is coming from the more left wing base and it's kind of how the party is perceived, and I think that has a lot of our even if it isn't translating to seats in congress. You know need to resolve this an open two thousand and four presidential democratic primary,

yeah. You know this seems like it perhaps another another instance of sort of asymmetry between the two parties. I think you're right, but as a symmetrical, that's gonna become more symmetrical. I don't know about that. I'm skeptical that, become more so much I mean I think you could go either way, but I think right now, the Democrats, I just think progressive struggle to broaden, especially among voters of color, and I think that's going to continue to be a real problem for them. That's going to limit their appeal, broadly speaking, within the party yeah, because isn't the democratic party more ideologically diverse than the republican party, and so it's easier to like distill the ideological message the republican party in an extreme way and still get the rest of the party, whereas when you do that on the democratic side, you end up alienating a lot of others

There's been some evidence, though, that like Democrats are shifting more in that direction. You're right, though, that it is a bigger tent party. It's more coalition. All I just know extreme partisan hatred. You know, yields extreme candidates. What an ivory There is a fight in the democratic party right now and we don't know who's going to win yet progressive in the next five to ten years could end up winning that fight. I think that it's only recently that more moderate Democrats feel empowered to actually directly challenge progressives on some of these, like social issues and crime, and things like that, and we have yet to have a big showdown where voters get to weigh in on who they prefer do they. The version of San francisco mayor london breed? Who is you know at a blm rally and talking about defending the police, or do they like the version of her who is like standing up at a press conference declaring a

on crime in the city and saying like she's had enough, so you know in many ways voters haven't weighed in yet on what vision they want for the party, I mean they. They obviously they have in some races, but also there are many many races to come. So like yeah, I agree. I agree Galen. That was like a very long term proposition, for both parties at the same time that booting as recalled in san francisco by a really large margin, you know another progressive district attorney last summer who we thought we were going to potentially be in trouble, Larry crasser in philadelphia winds. So it is a conflicting: story line, and I don't mean to try to over simplify it. I think it's a symmetrical is Jeffrey was saying, but I just think this outside her appeal of candidates could perhaps be one

feature of politics and I think, generally speaking, more progressive candidates fit in that more than a moderate establish one met. One in the democratic party that holds appeal for some people also, if the moderate ranks of Democrats got hollowed out in competitive districts in twenty twenty two that will have the knock on effect of the remaining lawmakers being more progressive in blue receipts and the party becoming like more extreme as a result, and then actually, the republican party the more people defending you know, competitive seats and potentially moderate lawmakers. So sometimes the pendulum swings. I don't know if that will be the case here, but records you look like you're going to say well, and I don't want, I don't mean to keep going round in circles, but like to me, I I think that's actually a good point right is that, like I think that, like in a year like twitter, eighteen when all the moderates in the republican party get eliminated. You really are left with just the ciampi people for the most part. I think for democrats, that

as democrats are still nominating moderate candidates, even in safe seats, which you don't see a lot with republicans in their safe seats anymore. That's basically the cap's listener. When I'm on your report written again, I think that gets back to some of the the racial and ethnic components of the democratic party. You know you'll have like a david Scott in it Lana area who has a very moderate reputation, but in a super blue sea right soon theory you can have so much in a very very progress in that seat in you absolutely do not. So I think that's like an important thing to keep in mind with this shirt, but remember a lot at the squad got to congress because of both like college educated elite voters and because they were able to appeal to voters of color in their response

if districts, I just think the national environments a little different, this time yeah, I guess for me, it's like, I think, about someone like Eric Adams in new york city and how I can continue to think that the progressive appeal has limits that are going to sort of wash up against shores that they can't. They can't get the tide far enough in because they struggle to appeal to various of color, like I guess, someone like a passer cortez and some presence. race down the line. Maybe could change that? I don't know. Bernie sanders was the guy who was going to do that. You know the two thousand and twenty presidential contest So again, I candidates also are important and can change things on that front to all right. Well, as with almost everything we talk about on this podcast, it's an ongoing quest and we're going to find out that we're going to talk about it when we know the answer as just a final point, are there any races that we were just be total idiots to not mention before we close out the

parker asked. I will be very on brand and mention the ballot measurements out. The coda constitutional amendments see which would have incurred the threshold for future balin measures to past a sixty percent. Now this is interesting because it was put on the. By by the republican legislature, ostensibly to block a ballot measure- that's coming up this november to expand medicaid in the state and they wanted to make that harder, but constitutional. I must see failed. So as a result, in november, medical expansion will still only require a bare majority in order to win and not something that a lot of red states have done by a visa balin measure in recent years. So you have to think that that is a decent chance of passing on south dakota now, whereas it might have been an underdog if it had been required to reach sixty percent and I'll just mission in a couple raises were watching last night. The first

shit in my head and says it has two districts again now reigns inky? Who was the the terror secretary for four trump and resigned sort of with? candle hanging over him decided he wanted return to the house, and so he running for the this new house seat. He, It's about a one point lead in the first district republican primary over Alice chesky, who was sort of more conservative but zinc. He does have trump's endorsement. I mean I it's it's kind of hard to to parse the differences there olszewski. Maybe it's just sort of an outsider type but he's but he's run for office, a lot his former state legislator and that Is I think, closer than we expected the fact that that it's not called yet zinc? He has a narrow lead. I think the numbers are outstanding there. It would suggest that he probably will win, but it's close enough that there be a surprise, and I also mention that in the seventh district in new jersey, Tom junior won the republican primary there.

By sorting aids is of the conversations were having kane very much shorter scene is like about fish. Establishment type of republican and there was actually york times article just before the primary, about how his campaign strategy was essentially silence like he just was not talking to the press about very much. Probably because if he's not a super, trompe republican, and he was running against at least a couple of guys who were trying to get to his right. One of them was phil rizzo, who was sort of the premier trump candidate in the two thousand and twenty one new jersey, gubernatorial prime. Carry on the republican side and kane. Is it about forty six percent? So he didn't want a majority, but in a state like new jersey, you don't need to worry about rot off, so he you know he won't

he won by a sizable margin, but in a crowded field all right. Well, I think that about does it. So thank you. Sarah Nathaniel and Jeff was a fun conversation thanks thanksgiving. Thank you. Galen thanks everybody. My name is Galen droop tony chow is in the virtual control room. Emily Vernadsky is an audio editing and chadwick. Matlin is our editorial director. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweet us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, reading or review in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we will will see.