Who hello welcome to the five thirty politics pie cast iron, Galen, droop and the high. Representatives has just impeached. The president of the United States, Donald Trump on two articles, The vote on abuse of power came down mostly along party lines. With two Democrats breaking ranks one voting prison, and the independent voting for impeachment three Democrats broke rank on the obstruction of Congress, article that makes president the third president in american history to be impeached, this year. This did not seem very likely, but after a whistle blower report, a transcript of trumps phone call with ukrainian Prime Vladimir Zaleski and subsequent testimony, this impeachment became much more. Quickly, and this is where we are now in all the house presented evidence that President Trump withheld a White house me.

Being and military aid to Ukraine, while pressuring the ukrainian government to investigate his political rivals, the violence and the Democratic Party? so here with me to discuss what got us here. About played out and what comes next are managed editor major common harry. You very good thanks for having me on this. Historic Day, as we ve heard all day today, also here with us, is seen a writer Perry, Bacon, Junior Harry you great things. You have me and also joining us remotely is singer politics, redder Clare, Malone, how're, you, I'm gonna, take you and thank you for being available on the road it's crazy day today, but were together and let me see where do you pay? Because I know you ve been covering this all day and you have an article about our sight now there was some question over how many defections there would be. What were the politics of the final tally? So it looks I know of no Republican voted for impeachment, which was not surprising, we never

Any indication of the word In terms of the Democrats, you head Jared Golden of Mean who voted for the abuse of power, but against the absurd action. Jars he's one of these a practice in a district, the Trump wine, so I assume there be some officials there. These second affection was column Petersen of Minnesota. He voted against both articles you even a very heavily Trump district, the democratic well and then the third was just then I mean he's a democratic. Guess at technically he's from New Jersey, but we know that easy to change parties that looks like he is going to change. The parties to this vote you can kind of like did tromp in there, because beating by being added to the democratic Antium piecemeal, number, but the he's now Republicans is really like to democratic political, piecemeal and then. Finally, toasty gabert, always

political voted present. Voting for yes or no on the articles, and also, of course, the independent just sent a marsh voted for in patron, so not like over hype, the historic nature of the day, but you know it in almost four years since this pod cast began were quickly approaching our official anniversary in the scope of these surprising things that have happened over the past four years. Clare, mica, parry, what does this rank? And I dont mean how surprising, as this compared to where we were two months ago, I mean kind of when we set out on this journey of covering politics for the past four years clerk, so funny that you you bring up the podcast anniversary, as I was literally just sitting here in my hotel room thinking about like the dates Ino Bill Clinton was impeached on December nineteenth, its December eighteenth today I start,

bring trump like four years ago to this month for five thirty eight and I think just the the arc of Donald TRY You know being eels style and everyone thought Ok well, maybe not can actually be president and then just the member We have that meeting spring of the GNP primary and his just astronomical rise republican voters, sort of accepting Trump G o p and it's sort of the nature of the party really changing and a lot of ways over the past four years to become a very trumps personality, Centric party, and now too to see just the the and of all parties. Ship on display during the impeachment proceedings has been really interesting. I mean it's been a full a full day of of watching members of Congress get up there in time about the state of Amerika. So I think, just as far as like a temperature check for years later from one trump really became a a national news item that is

that is a stunning sort of for you their arc certainly something I'm thinking about today. You're, it's funny, I dissident these so did the terms I was I was thinking about it in. I think, if you told me, ok, if we go back to my trump came down the scholar, and you told me, hey, it's gonna win election and he will be impeached in his first term. I dont think I would be that surprise. Just in the sun, like trumped, seems like a very chaotic person and candidate and an not someone who had a ton of respect for four of how things are done norm wise our laws, and so in that sense it wasn't surprising in like the full arc that that I think Claire's is getting old, but like a year in two years, and I had thought impeachment was basically off the table.

In particular. After the Mulder report came out, it seemed impeachment was impossible, and so for for this to happen, and in particular for like the Ukraine call that at the centre of a lot of this to happen a day after Mahler testified, hang was one there. Two days later is a stunning turnover and I think from that looked at it in that time period. If that makes sense paradigms your perspective on how we arrived here after the past four years, I mean still surprised election night Donald Trump won the election. I think we re election eighteen times Hilary Rinse, twelve or thirteen times. So I'm still surprised about that in terms of peace, I think we did a story on the site in December's like our January to December twenty seventeen January twenty eighteen, I'm I mean I'm surprised

here considering the Mulder report did not result in distance another even had to happen, but I'm not surprised tromp was impeach because I think he commits a lot of I must endure ethically bill. Violations can have continuously so I the guy sort of expected at some point, you would come to this right that I think that in some ways the Democrats sort of was unavoidable and some low that his behavior it was going night. I think I knew his behaviour would at some point go over some kind of line. You know it's it's funny. I was just looking up in in April twenty seventeen. I wrote an article k Maxine Waters, isn't afraid to talk about impeachment, and Then it's funny like its it has in people. Talk has been going on for basically trumps entire term. Of office. Just so you know, Thinking about like mental signposts. About about this, process so so that the Republicans lie.

Of attack that you have the democratic and wanting to do this for ages, either not wrong hurry. That's what so interesting about all this lonely pushed back. I'm not out of a clear there certainly not wrong, that some Democrats, many Democrats wanted this. From the beginning, many Denmark, mostly didn't you re establishment, didn't wanna exact, and so my my pushed back on that is exactly that. Is that a majority of Democrats, including the democratic leadership they ve been saying this talking point but but in the in the way of saying that GEO Peter complaint has some truth to it. This democratic talking point has something to do that they sort of were forced, into this, and I think, a lot of ways, those kind of establishment Democrats, the moderate Democrats were Oh very much so, and I think you saw policy really to telegraph that today she is she has been the person who has obviously been the face of the

I dont want to be too hasty in our efforts to remove the president from office, its solemn duty and lest her her symbolism today right her clothing. How did she dressed she will or a very dark kind of funereal suit, with the who a collar and a very large pin of the the mace, the housemaid, which is essentially like this symbol. Her power when she announced the votes on the first article she enjoyed, said that the article passed there were. There is a smattering of applause starting to come up from the democratic side of the Caucasus, and she just gave hand gesture and a look that cut the applause. Edit. I mean seal of comparisons on twitter to like Nancy Policy is like your mom telling you not to do do something, and I did eleven of the sexes, but its it is kind of that visceral, like don't do that right. It's like scolding this week,

have been telling people for weeks for a month for years that this is a solemn thing, don't clap at the at the chemo and so to me policy was such an interesting figure today, you're an unjust to emphasise a point and the idea of the kind of democratic leadership being dragged into this. You know by trumps actions and then also to some extent by the politics of that part of the region they were so reluctant is There is some political risk here. I'm I'm actually pretty amazed that there's as little poor political risk to Democrats as there is, which is to say the country, is pretty evenly divided on impeachment, after being against it for so long, but there's some risk. Can you solve Republicans unit, beginning to outlaw beginning to place impeachment in

it. Twenty twenty give us back to house yeah. I wanted to mention. If you look at our trackers today, you'll see that president trumps approval has picked up two points to forty three percent and that's actually the highest. It's been in our track. Since March of two thousand seventeen and then you also see that support for empty and removal has, is now evenly split. Forty, seven four forty seven against, whereas there used to be slight support in favour of removal I mean what should we make of that kind of shift in Republicans and trumps favour right at the end kind of of the impeachment process there? I think a politically and in terms of providing, I think we have to wait all of it to be, sure that changes real. I mean it's like it's very new, any still very much within the range that it's kind of always in, but if, in a week you know it persists, then I think

I don't know you know I think they're. There are few different ways to to read it. You know maybe I'm a coalescing of trumps base behind him. We ve also in recent weeks, gotten some really bullish Economic indicators maybe has to do with that. In the end, though, he sought forty three percent right. You gotta remember during Clinton's Each man, the overwhelming majority of the country, was against impeachment and Clinton to prove rating shot up to like I don't. It was like something like seventy. At the day of Petra exactly so. Ok that was a less partisan time where kind of more movement was You could have more move it movement and present a priority, but Trump is still unpopular. So, like that's, that's the point right. If trumped shoots up to forty three percent. Ok, that's a worrying sign for Democrat. He hasn't shut up to fifty.

I've percent target. But to be clear, we ve put a lot of emphasis on how stable the president's approval rating has been. And if you just go and look at the tracker today, you'll see that there is a pretty sharp tick upwards but Perry. What do you think about us by Ethel? If better theory about this, my guess would be that we like impeachment. Can you voted for Trump impede. Mckenna raises this question base with the democratic saying your vote was kind of you should have voted for whom we should remove into my guess who were seeing is, like you know, about if a person, America's voted for transiting, something that number so I have to trouble, gives you like them, like forty percent higher in two thousand twenty, so I think, might species. You're saying and I think they're they're impeachment number among Republicans with twelve ten overlap mother, so we went down so I think you're, seeing some. My guess is that that is the sort of

enforces partisan lines and therefore Republicans are star defending Trump more strongly and they would have a month ago. But again these numbers are small. I want to say too much, but that's, my guess is we're. Talking about, it begins, align themselves, a Trump other removal question and also on the approval question You have plenty more to talk about which will get too in just a minute, but first today's podcast is brought to you by eighty t commercial for business. It's not politics as you draw these days and it's not business as usual. At eighty eight, Do you commercial, sores businesses, ranging from mid sized organizations to large scale enterprises? Think of as national security advisers just for your company, they provide comprehensive security, fire safety and risk management solutions, professional great systems for commercial, great businesses, the fortune, one thousand trust. Eighty t commercial for highly complex, scalable, integrated solutions, and it looking for a great partner to upgrade or take over the monitoring and service of your current system. Eighty to commercial can help to install

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twenty or is? Are we just too far away or well these votes? come back to haunt these democratic lawmakers. It so hard to say I mean my instinct, It's only that is that this will now be a big factor and how most voters decide who they're gonna vote for an twenty twenty, like even in the moment, the political fall out seems murky and hard to parse right. You have this kind of taken trumps approval rating is economic blast is going to provide real well, we have to wait and see a share of the same time. The generic ballot has actually moved in democratic favour, a little bit which you now what that means, but only if its heart, the parts in the moment who, how how the hell always we know what what effect it will have However many months, but but my guess right would be guys like it. It doesn't play a major role,

I think that there is some interesting trump is kind of been out on a little bit of a kick. The past two days were used. Really going a little wild with the anti impeachment lines he hadn't six page letter to policy last night did a rally in Michigan tonight where he said that Bill Clinton said you should Whatever he said, some criticism set said some crazy things, so you can say you could think like our will, that just means that could be that he's gonna get painted in this crazy light that impeach. He's gonna beat look really good in the rearview mirror or You know by the next year a year from now, people were kind of have created a little, but I don't know. I think that that impeachment, though, is gonna, be a centrepiece of twenty twenty in part, because Trump sort of seems but you'll be insistent on making it one. So one that have some impact on house races potential.

It plays into a little bit of the framing as Trump, even though he is the ultimate inside or as the President of the United States is an outsider and is the victim in the dynamic of american politics right he's being victimized by these Democrats, who brought this impeachment case against him, Are we getting out Clara little, but maybe or could play the other way which, which is people it really touches on in the popular culture and people will say, like jeez disguise kind of taking a pretty far. Maybe the impeachment was a good thing right, and so it s kind of shakes out Democrats favour one day I would say, is if you're in a if you're one of these Democrats in a truck district. Even if even at this, the net political loss for you. I think you still held a vote for impeachment because you're, even if you wanna Trop District, the most people voted for. You are Democrats. They are to be mad they're going to you, you need your core base? You need your volunteers, user donors. I dont think that, if you're a Democrat in like

peacefulness Polly in the eighties across the country, is still pulling in the seventies in a truck district among Democrats. Are you still have to vote this way? Even it is probably not good for you in the same way for parliament Corey gardener, I think, in a perfect world they would four impeachment. Is a net not good mean in Colorado or or left of centre places, but I think that they have to get the republican vote. And so I think- Gardener College in the same spot where they have to vote again for mobile, even if it might be better for the general electorate. Overall, they have to know you have to have your base first. Does I think these were hard both of these members? For that reason it is, it is just a minute boring to say at this point, but it is amazing. The extent to which party loyalty partisanship held firm in this vote. I mean we always knew it would. I've been on this part can sort of like saying there's a small chance that

there could that people could break ranks, and I still think that right, even though events have have proved me wrong at every turn, but the definition of insanity now I just think there's always been a chance. I laughed like. I said that because we ve been saying the same things for four years? You know when, hard core nature of partisanship right and that that people themselves into the into the emotional or political view that their party kind of dictate sort or smoke signals that they should take. And you know it goes back to the Trump you know, having women comments like all that stuff. It's just so It's so amazing that needs the four years of kind of saying this, this thing over and over which is

your worldview falls into likely at your political party to certain extent, and in today's sitting seems like you know that the reality of out or something I don't know it's just a no to totally and and the like. The fact that there were like a small handful of Democrats who broke ranks and no Republicans is essentially, I think, simply an artifact of the fact that Democrats are in the majority right now, so they have a lot more members in red districts right, in other words, This is all about partisanship. The other thing is just too like it's about power. Already, but not about party as what was Trump ok. So I was watching a stream of the vote and then, as they went to vote, they did a split screen with trumps rally. What this trump talking about, while he was being impeach me, was talking about large things that clear PET Clare, smartly avoided

Trying to summarize who is talking about how real fighter pilot pilots have better bodies, then Tom Cruise our Hillary Clinton, but but what Lynette set out to me was he was talking about when he just use. The phrase me, and kind, and then he added womankind any sort of like Paul. Seems like you know I now in many goes, I I had it kind, just so the fake, fake news media. You know point, so damn did you know, doesn't give me centrally and get a big laugh and that's what this is about right. It's about like coach, and pc run amok and what the word you you were getting at like this sense of victimization? How can how can party see all this so differently because of that, because it's not really about Ukraine right, it's about. Do you feel. How do you feel about your place in the world

Do you feel your respected? A lot of the republican speeches we're getting at that there were getting at this. You know Democrats are trying to deny you your voice, Bob nullifying sixty three alien vote. We heard it again and again and again I want to ask parry as we look ahead to the trial in the Senate, Do we agree, there's been some debate there about whether they're going to call witnesses and whether things are going to turn into something of a circus with people like Hunter Biden being called, or maybe the Democrats, try to call make mulvaney something like that or they just gonna, skip the witnesses and have a short trial? What does it seem like at this point? It looks to me this way, son only what Mcconnell has been saying that he does eager to have a lot of witnesses, and we might you might we might end up having basically the house these were managers president their case, some Republicans the thin, the ten, the president in that's it, I'm guessing we're not going to have the kind of

testimony we had. There was pretty riveting not in the house and tell the committee a few weeks ago, bigger gonna have a press. I think it's gonna be probably pretty fast. My impression it doesn't look like Mcconnell was to have a home the January Onest light. But again I don't know- and I think he's strategy is involved It is also some discussion about exactly the sun debate. I don't know how, among some of the more liberal democrats in this house, about whether they should quota cuts in the impeachment articles over in the first place. I started to some parts of this new procedure which they would in peace. Tromp had not had the articles go to this and it because this aspect and entered a trap, when I try to push for a real trial and mechanisms, it is. I can do that. I think these points These questions are a little bit ambiguous, this point with the key thing being at this point. We dont have a lot of evidence. There are really any Republicans were moving the president and, if maybe Mitt Romney is third, I think we're still at least twenty short. So I think that

the results are clear, but the process may be is unclear. Parry we should wait and see how there, at every guy Classic Michael, it's obvious, becoming a joke at this point, but, of course, will get back to that at the start of the new year. When there are heads too send it, but wrapping up here on a more reflective. No I'm curious. How does this history in moment get written Who decides how future generations understand what happened today? A spy surely given the split screen. The nature of how different parts of the country different people in the country are viewing things it'll be twenty twenty right. It'll, be whoever wins, and twenty twenty rights would not only gets an outsize voice. In writing the history of this, but that will also for fur Media certainly weather it's true or not play you know, determine

whether this was a quote. Unquote: good, move by Democrat right, if, if Trump into real action and twenty twenty think the media will write that impeaching him was a. Add political move, although that didn't necessarily hold up two thousand right, because Republicans impeached President Clinton and then a Republican went on to win the twenties, the two thousand election, even though people generally think of that impeachment as not having been on the most solid ground. So I I think that was a different case. As the pulling the american public swung so clearly against impeachment in Clinton's case in the moment, in the moment that that the history kind of wrote itself in this case, all the members, are sort of balance. On edge in other countries. They could teeter this where that, so I I think paragraph curse. Where do you think? I think twenty twenty, what kind of about one way or the other yeah I think so I was I was struck, is seen in was saying I was watching CNN. There is a lot

focus on impeachment is a permanent stain on your record, no matter who you are and in the play in the world I live in. Bill Clinton was in peace to his wife was almost president in only two years later, so I found that a little bit animal. I don't think Pierre. His impeachment came up really at all in our campaign that wasn't, it was one of the biggest problems in other goes into other sixteen, so I don't know about their. I think the core question NOS. I think that if we look back, you, like George W Bush, is one of the worst president's of you know the last thirty or forty years, and even though he won reelection, he left us with a very low poor rating. My guess is, tromp lose three election he'll leave office cannot in the thirties high thirty's, probably- and I mean He'Ll- be impeached animal Let's be honest, the media hates historians hate him. The elite it's him,

Looking to run tv eight mean another publicans, you no voters like him, so I think, if he's impeach doesn't relation. He will be considered one of the world the presidency s most speakers, my guess, you're, that is data. Now impeachment cannot validation of what a lot of people in the media in the stories of the elite. Think about him, as I think this is a big but I think might is right if you wish re election. I don't know what this looks like, but I must think it becomes like a symbol of we had these great unequivocal culture wars in we had a black president. We had a backlash. We had a lot of controversial things that happen. The country was divided, and I think it becomes the the broader narrative that he has done, on two May, if, if Trump into real action, I think because many of the people writing the history dont like Trump Power, is absolutely right- that it gets written as emblematic of of the crazy divisions in the country that, if he does, when real

if he does when reelection, but those are really interesting points to to end things on. So, thank you so much my thanks for being here, my pleasure, thank you Perry, thank you and thank you Clare, thanks Galen and before we go I'll mentioned that we have a live show in DC on January, sixteenth read into the swamp. Am I want to make that jerk? Any right we'll be there go to five thirty, dot com, slash lie for details and tickets. If everything goes according to plan, we have a couple: pre recorded holiday episodes for you during the next two weeks will be on I'm literally headed out of this party studio straight to the airport. Where you go, I'm going to Singapore I'm now happens very welcome flight gee, I'm gone home anyway. Yeah literally walking out the door and going to the airport right now attorneys editing this podcast and well. Yes, we will have a couple prerecorded holiday episodes for you during the next couple weeks and then it will be back

I'm with you in the new year, my name is Galen, drew The child is in the control room and, like I said, he's, also editing the spy glass. You can get it right emailing us at podcast, at five thirty dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comment. If, fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store. Tell someone about us thanks for listening and will cease