In the words of Barack Obama, he's just jackass. That was after the terrorist threats February. I like colonies. Music. This is completely separate from like Kenya is an artist, but he is a jackass

hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop, as we have discussed on this planet cast the current national environment poses big challenges for Republicans. According to our leaders, pulling average is president Trump. Is down by ten percentage points nationally and behind in every swings day, if the current environment sticks Democrats have several paths to winning the Senate, so what would it take for Republicans to turn things around tonight? We're going to discuss some possible strategies Trump and Republicans could pursue to improve their competitiveness. This fall and hearing me to do not are editor in chief mate silver Innate Galen. Also with us, is in your politics. Writer claim, alone Heckler again and also with us, is in your politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry. I do all right. Let's begin with how the GEO p could turn its electoral fortunes around. There are still four months left

until the election and certainly time for the environment to change. So what's think of this is something of an open brainstorming session where we can consider strategy is suggested by politicians, and commentators are just ideas that you all come up with and try to assess how much of a difference they could actually make between now and election day. I'm gonna kick things off with one Russian that's been battered around quite a bit, not sure how serious it is. These kinds of rumours often float around when a president is seeking reelection, but this idea is replacing Vice President MIKE Pence on the ticket, particularly with a woman, so Perry. Let's start with you. What is the electoral rationale?

for such a move and is it based in evidence, so the political science data we have. We have very limited samples, obviously suggests that vice President Kallas, don't really change the results very much, there's some evidence they maybe device was again as two to three points in their homestake, but that's it. That's pretty limited, so overall began its we're, not sure if they met. That said, I do think in this environment is worth thinking about what they would say about Donald Trump, the evidence For example, an o eight voter proceed, John Mccain, more negatively the more they learn about paler like a qualifications. So if the Dallas rapporteur pick a personal color or a woman, as is running may to replace Pince, is there the chance that voters think of him differently particular he pair that change with giving fewer Mount Rushmore style Speeches and more Kennedy, inclusive language, you can imagine a sort of pivot of Donald Trump, too

Let's call it less racially conservative in which he changed his rhetoric, and he also had running made? Who might appeal to more culturally moderate people? I think that's not a bad idea and I also think might pincers not adding anything right now. So in some ways this is actually an idea of a lot of pluses and no obvious negative. From my point of view, we, it seems like an obvious negative- would be annoying evangelical. Voters who, like MIKE Patrie idols, their way at all. I think Donald Trump has get even angelic of a pretty lock down. I think this idea that even vehicles are voting for pants because he's church going and quotes thing. I don't think this actually true, I think we're talking of cultural attitudes and Donald Trump has the same ones and therefore I don't the guinea pigs for that. So I think what the VP talk and initiative mine games are all about is really about one person in its Nicky Healy and I think

putting Nicky Hayley a woman, and a woman of color in the former ambassador to the United Nations on the ticket would be actually play for appealing to a demographic. The Trump is struggling with witches. Suburban women machine is really even more massive gender gap in some of the current pulling than you didn't twenty. Sixteen, which is saying something until I think the conversation in my book, you know cutting through the like like who? Could he pick? I mean it's Dickie, Hayley and I think the question is whether or not trampled wanna make a move like that which is kind of, on the one hand, bold, on the other hand, Yanks it's like the campaigns and scramble mode, but So I'm not sure Nicky Healy would take that. I think she she might. She very well might is done and I think, a pretty good job of balancing being a trump ally with furtive hinting to serve. You know, to a certain degree that she is also a different kind,

more serious republican yeah. I dont know why she would necessarily take that. Is nine points behind in the polls you are his VP you're going to have three. Cycles a week in which you are asked to report eight or distance yourself from some. Tweet he Sanderson comments, he makes. She in some ways represents Canada? The future forward for the GNP may be in a post. Trump era is not clear to me that you wouldn't frankly, rather have him lose if you're her and not be associated with them, toward nominee in twenty twenty four twenty eight, I may not, you know, it is kind of almost a classic syrup Ellen Game chain strategy right where you know you're losing so you kind of throw a hail Mary. I don't mean to compare Nikki Haley to Sarah Palin I think she's doesn't have. Some of the issues at European handles put it that way, but she's kind of a fairly bright

aspect, and for that very reason, do you want. You take that risk now right and also, I think, if pensive dumped the you created enemy in my pants, and my principal may not be happy about that. Might pence might start to our people oiled him start to say stuff to the press right. Well he's still your vice president. I mean that could be potentially rather interesting as well. So their reasons the Nicky Harry might not want this role, but if we step away from Nicky Hayley for a second, if there were a change that President Trump could make to the ticket that would potentially annoy pants allies but potentially bring in more women voters would that be a trade off worth making the utterly Emily. Hence I want that move is like. I do not forget a moving talking about Supreme Court nominations, that's not matched with it. My making the transition for you I mean you, can

You can make the appeal to frankly, like white, suburban women in different ways, and I think that way would be through oh, I don't know nominating Amy Coney bear to the to the Supreme Court. Assuming that common steps down or one of the old, illiberal justices dies or sidestepped down which you know. I don't think that many of them are considering stepping down and Thomas doesn't necessarily want to step down either, but you could see Thomas's wife is quite looped in to sort of republican politics and Trump Trump world. So maybe you could see a scenario in which peace pressured to resign and someone who appeals to win steps in. I also think that that's kind of a hail Mary pass. I mean, I think, that there are other things that the term campaign could do before switching the VP and trying to push out a current Supreme Court justice for a woman Supreme Court justice. But if we're talking

in a third gum at the wall sure. So I want to fully indulged potential Supreme Court vacancy in just a second, but wrapping up the vice presidential conversation I mean. Is that true, Fourth, it of course is worth it and come back. If say, mocker Rubio TIM Scatter, Nicky Hayley, is offer the vice presidency. They should take it we are concerned. That is the way to become famous. Do come well known to be the runner up. Next, if trump puts you gonna take if your Nicky Hayley in wants you to defend the confederate flags thing up in Trop is insane. He still should do that too, I think being in the Vienna vice president. Do you know the kidnap me? This is generally a good thing is in a razor profile and The trade off seem sort of I've used to me, if only because I struggle to think of like yes, pit agri, pincers staff will leak bad stuff about the president, and that will not be here.

So, although I dont know what they're going to say, the John Bolton didn't say, but I think the upside is now, but usually just white women. I think it might be if Europe is trying to get your hispanic number from like twenty seven to thirty three, your black number up. I just think that, like right now, Trump is in a place where there's a bunch of democratic groups across the electorate. He struggling, and I dont think any of those groups are, legally excited about, voting for pins and maybe any person idea. Very maybe some younger white men who might better than pits to be totally out as I do think the hail Mary we are talking about replacing pence is something I think, there's almost a lot of added value and re little negative. You presume that oh trumpet get a big bounce among women then, of course you should do it I'll there is no reason to presume that, necessarily, or at least that, like they wouldn't be traded Maybe there are some publicans who are not comfortable with the women of color of the ticket salmon us at the ceremony. Vote First Constitution Party can

a writer why the hell that, although for Joe Biden rightly seen you know, I don't know, I think it's not obvious that like it would necessarily and also have to assume that for Trump. That nothing happens as swiftly as it should let the roll out is botched that the pen People are more upset, then I mean We have sent anyway right that maybe there vetting issues with Hayley that they didn't catch and are prepared to defend right their awkward mrs around having someone currently sitting as a vice president. When someone else's the nominee I haven't really thought through somebody these strange going to talk about our things that if you so had a perfect textbook republican caddy, maybe they could pull off right, but with Trump they're all here. Real difficulty. I'm not sure you and I entirely agree pair with the idea that if trumped offers you the VP spot, you should take it if your Marco Rubio Ronicky earlier whomever in part because it has to do with like Trump

own peculiarities, outside of just agri, if you like the vice presidency, raises your platform, but it also has a problem with being second fit. Or perceiving to have been second fiddle. So I mean you can see the his new sort of obsession with FAO, Chee putting up twitter poles to see who's, who do you trust more tramper, FAO cheat? You could see someone like Nicky, Hayley or Rubio, although I think he's a little bit less of like a fresh new face, you could see trumpeting really jealous of the attention that Nicky Hayley gets. Then either completely suppressing public appearances or saying weird things or spreading weird rumours which I'm sorry that out of the realm of possibilities. White House, so I irregular situation, it's, but I think trumps oh neuroses, about attention and fame, make it a more complicated calculus for that potential person.

You're saying Nicky Nicky be famous. It have Donald Trump criticise our have set of media right this distance between Donald Trump and gaily. I don't think so dry about just, I think, I'm crazy I've ever does. I agree with some of you said, but I think she might be pleased that she's not considering. Ally of whom, while giving all the attention so You pointed out several flaws in the strategy, but also some areas where it could make sense if it did improve trumps standing with certain segments of the electric. Let's move onto another strategy that clear already mentioned, which is in some ways repeating the two thousand eighteen mid term playbook, where a vacancy opens up on the Supreme Court and that pushes Americans more towards their partisan corners and people who are thinking of switching site,

baby, don't anymore, and so there are some rumors about Republicans lobbying one of the justices to step down in order to set up that opportunity. Is this a strategy that has significant upsides? Is it liable to happen and who would it improve, trumps art with, I think it's a great strategy. Obviously should note, I think, Samuel Lido Clarence Thomas may want to keep their lifetime jobs in which they have lots of power and decide public policy. So the first thing I think here is like you're, seeing these conservative floating the idea that maybe Alito or Clarence, Thomas Rate and move on. I am not sure that want to do that, they make sure they enjoy these job. So, let's start with their billet say that Thomas is older, he was beauty in player. He wants to help drop in some way. The sort of media advice-

of like a Supreme Court nomination is that it sort of changes, the issues that are being discussed right now, we're talking about Cove id and racism in protest, and none of those are great terrains for Donald Trump he's not doing well in an environment. But if this is required vacancy the media will cover that story. A lot it'll, probably take them. The coverage of oh, but I hope we not a lot, but some of the coverage of covered some covers off the protests in Supreme Court nominations. Are you sure about abortion, affirmative action on issues where the parties are pretty well defined and pretty well splits. I think, edges and national turn out anymore. Voters for but what have you been is think it'll be a much easier summer for trumpet were debating. You know other Supreme Court now many experts, if that person is a woman or a person of color or both should be on the court, then, if we're debating

tromp is handling covered, poorly or very poorly. The thing about that, though, is what makes it tricky. I take all Paris points, but then you also, if you look at twenty eighteen in the mid terms, I mean. Obviously the cabinet hearings were a very singular. And in some ways, but it galvanised both sides right there was big. You know there was a lot of excitement on the day credit side for saying like well. You know hell yeah, we're gonna turn out now, like trumped, just nominated Brett Cavanaugh, who we think, as you know, the most despicable person in the face of the earth and vice versa Republicans were happy to have em, but when you look at some of the Senate races or the congressional races. I think you dont have clear results that it was beneficial for the Republicans and in some ways, people people could say it was, You know the beginning of an awakening for Democrats. Hang the Supreme Court stuff matters. It can get our voters riled up. You know that

We already can, I have an idea of who the the nominees would be from team trump, and I think a lot of those people make the liberal base angry, and so you can see that that anger is motivation which we all know is a very powerful thing and politics, so so it is. As with all things, not particularly clear cut me. Can you way and almost in terms of how big an impact the carbon appointment had on the two thousand and thirteen May terms? Did it actually benefit Republicans? It's not so clear, think what it do is push people towards their power in corners, denisdaily doesn't necessarily intrinsically help. Republicanism publicans lost an enormous number of how seats. Obviously they lost the if the house, by nine points rights, you can have things be more polarized if you're the house by nine points or in trumps case, losing the popular vote by nine points. Then ok right of my change, exactly who wins a couple of at the margin, but like it doesnt work,

deposition. Overall me: first If you are a leader, when Thomas and your concern- and about the legacy The conservative Supreme Court unified a problem where trumpet and dogged when reelection, and so now you have to kind of hang on four. Another four years. You know you wonder if, with bitter Ginsberg wishes, if she had retired before the twin sixteen election, for example so a purely from that standpoint. There's that question of, like maintaining conservative majority on the Supreme Court. But now I like aggregate parents like This is one of the few things that word become front, page news, media would displace covered and the protests from bidding quite ass, much coverage, and maybe the economy, all three of which are just utterly terrible,

stories for four trump. I want to move on and talk about some of the other possible strategies that Republicans could use in order to turn their fortunes around. So the next possible strategy that we can discuss seems like the strategy that Trump is actually trying to deploy given his speech at Mount Rushmore over the weekend, and that is too put more emphasis on culture war, particularly we over the nations monuments and the role of historical figures does not seem like a playbook that could work at this point like an anti pc culture. Wars message will that and also create this dynamic, where standing for the historical importance of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, and the Democrats want to tear down the Jefferson Memorial yeah, I'm not sure it's a strategy a message that gets. You knew voters that united we're talking earlier, Juno trumpets slipping with, so

urban women. He could. Potentially, you know, make an outreach to some groups that that, like parts of sort of like the anti pc message, but I am not sure that his life gains in the speech this weekend were about the indoctrination of children, in this certain ideology, this rigid totalitarian ideology. Sure that those ideas are the kind that broaden your appeal. They certainly do good things freer baser trumps base. I think that's what they're and to do. I think there are ways to have a conversation about the corner, quote culture, wars that are less divisive or less inflammatory than what trumpet doing and those I actually think you you do have potential inroads with with voters who feel

Yeah, maybe alienated by the way that some Democrats High Profile Democrats talk about race and culture in America, but I think the way he does it the way it comes Is it so dark is so sort of apocalyptic seeming is so you know talking about nazis and you know it and it sort Arianism. It is quite extreme and if you're, if you're talking about you, know statues right cuz, taking down it statues in particular recent pulling shows that Americans are coming around. The idea maybe some of these confederate statues, yes, should be taken down so in Trump, makes a whole speech around saying we gotta get rid of them. That's a bit of a problem. I think right now the strategies that would like it's working right now. The polls show the american people are

the protesters they support Belian more than ever there in this moment where the electorate appears to have changed its views to some extent on racial issues in a way this against Trump and to some extent, with the Democrats. Now that done may. I think could change, though- and I would say this in two ways: first, is the Trump right now is running. Is Joe Biden and I'm sorry this great in the Atlantic. This last week saying you know, like Trump, ran sixteen against Hillary Clinton to some extent Barack Obama and those people. Very easy to sort of label is a part of a change in culture. You dont, like Joe binds much harder to hit on that, but I think he's your bottoms Elizabeth Warren COM. Harris Susan Rise or Stacy Abrams might make it a little easier for tromp too, like find a good target who's that a resonate with people who stood a symbolized where they don't like you. I'll raise we're Talkin agenda and I think if he gets a better target that might help him out a little bit

the I think is really hard for Trump right now, but could change is right now his pole numbers are so bad, you can tell the media is much more comfortable, describing them with the r word than they three years ago or four years ago, racists racially tens racism, racism, like he's being covered in a way he's not he's, doesn't sound that much different. I would argue that needed two years ago, but his pole numbers are freeing up people who were nervous about calling him that's not before to say much more bluntly. If he gets, He goes up back to the forties enlist like he my win reelection again, I don't have it would happen, but I think if you can maybe it's better. If he cannot calms down a little bit. Informs US comments. I do think there's room if he gets more more popular overall in the meat

Stop scrubby everything he does in the blood is terms possible. Then that might help him along as well as the culture working it be wine if everything you do and culture war, nobody was the for somebody is called races and immediate use colleague everything he does, races, which I think in many cases is true. That's gonna make it harder than to make this kind of case, but I don't think that's that terminology that description by the media chump is going away even in this parliament rise parent I think that it will continue in part, because the media is largely widen college, kate it and you see a lot of white College, educated americans- I mean the what's that the phrase it third around is like the great awakening of these, like particular demographics of White America, liberal leaning, college educated, and I think that's what the media is, and I think that there is a movement within the media to use that more blunt language and even of trumps pull numbers go up. I do think that it's that it's a bit more of a cultural,

strain and newspapers and magazines now to talk that way about tromp. I dont know, even if his pole numbers glop like ten or twelve percent or something and then it becomes a super competitive rates, is still think the Pieper going. We using descriptors. I mean there's also been blaanor reckoning, in the media over the diversity in newsrooms how issues around race our cover, this effect every newsroom, including five hundred and thirty eight. So I think that's also part of this, but, like look, I do think it's going to change everything notable like Perry said that the media is now more willing to these terms like racist, instead of charged that a speech like the members more speech which, in certain ways is trying to toe align between me be using implication, not saying things quite outright? You know he can read a different ways: it's now Having read the way that's favourable for tromp. At the same time, you have trump this morning, for example, tweeting about the now, scar driver who,

was in his garage the blackness car driver, which is kind of a novelty and how they were submit. Looked like a noose found garage northern asked car drivers were very supportive of him right and It is now twenty about had its a hoax and how scar screwed up by trying to and the confederate fly from being displayed at its races. That is Eddie openly in very terms in Looking race, it's not as though Trump is, carefully, triangulated calibrating stuff I guess he's mad that, like there is, black driver, who is courageous in some ways that back southern white people are supporting now mean that must drive him crazy or something you're gonna mean, but to pretend it like there's any type of like this, the plan here. Eight of ability for new, followed with a strategy which is just as kind of impulses which may be torn. You know I guess it's. I guess it's not up to me to judge what he believes inside. Certainly the manifestations of what,

says and does allied times are things that I would call racist it's now you're, even talking about some Nixon, who is able to kind of keep the subtext subtile some kind of know what he's doing and he may be. Use a very nasty things inside as well Dixon, but like he was a better arbitrator? political strategy. I guess let me yes one thing to native Clare and Gale into I raise the idea that campaign. The waiter he's running now would be helpful to him. If bite and picked a black woman is the running that do you agree with that, yeah gives. Trump is like a reactive politician. He can bounce off of a new person in a jiffy way and obviously like having a person of color and the ticket is gonna, be off putting to a certain segment of people, some of whom might be leaning towards Biden right now, but could be easily Swedish, go back to tramp, so yeah yarn and also given the current dynamic you imagine, the Republicans

try to hammer home the message that this person is the president kind of lying in wait, binds transitional figure he's Well, I heavily on whoever the vice president, as the vice president might run in four years. I think Republicans well how we say that openly, especially if they think the vice presidential candidate is less popular than Biden show. It sounds like what you are saying is that there are certain situations in which culture war appeals definitely do work to politicians favour, but that you don't believe trumpeting, execute this well, regardless I think from should ask tee a few about the culture worst off right. It's almost like a reverse, might touch where alike, positions that might once have seemed extreme earlier rivers overturn window on it. Right now see more normal. Because the opposition to them as Trump and trumpet so disliked that you know you have not maclise, actually more extreme. And you know what I mean I can imagine that like people would have concerns,

certain statue user, something down that people actually care much about statues, but you can imagine like a more effective programme, would be able to kind of triangulate in certain ways. And say yes, black lives matter, but we also have to preserve our heritage as complicated. It though it might be. Re municipal are going too far. And thou be seen as the reasonable position, but Trump now that kind of triangle interposition you're, like is it just kind of cover for like a racist position right because again Georgia, voters and poles think our president is racism. That was before the George Floyd protest. Is poles from a while ago. I met those numbers have gone up since then, so he is a great

of trouble kind of actually persuading anyone with his arguments on these issues are so, let's move on, and this maybe dovetails on the argument that you're making me, but the next possible strategy would be a somewhat of an overhaul of both economic and covert nineteen related policies, so maybe get really aggressive on combating the krona virus and pumping stimulus dollars into the economy. It maybe it's unrealistic, but is strategy that would improve the Republican Party lot. This fall yes, if Trump govern like a normal Republican were absolutely that with health. It also the easiest thing to do I mean that it is enough to say that this is not to say that fighting corruption

is an easy thing, but its it is relatively. It is relatively more simple to even outside of Trump just making more structural changes within the White House in the task force and public messaging. These are things well within the grass and some might say the expectation that an american public has for its leadership. Just just the bare bones year. I just think being like a normal president in the middle of this crisis would obviously be helpful to whom Clare said it's easy. I mean it would be. Differ somewhat of a recital J tromp. I agree, but I admit it's like in reality. I think, is the hardest thing to imagine. If we decide, I think, is much more likely to give this drug to above. Clarence, Thomas, opposite room core is gets from to behave normally amid code ninety. But I agree this is by far the most optimal strategy I do think if I were environments Mcconnell, I would try to get tromp too

prove more unemployment benefits like that. There are things they help. You kind of me tat, I think, trot may not be against and in some ways dead, active anymore. The Republican Congress maybe oppose some of those things like ex extending the increase unemployment benefits, maybe a place like having more relief funds, there's probably a place on the economic stuff, where a more populous Plan might help in there's a place where my guess is actually might be for there and there were look in the Mikado might be against that and they, my in this way, be holding him back a tiny bit. I dont know because I don't really know what trumps views on policy issues are and they tend to evolve a lot, but I think there is a place where I think he you could see him doing more in the economic front. In terms of like

Kobe better. I think we know that ship is far sailed. Now. I guess the inverse of this question is, would any president be doing poorly? Under these circumstances, we have covered nineteen and an economy where eleven percent of Americans are unemployed, and just a lot of anxiety about what's to com, I mean look at Cuomo in New York. New York has had a huge number of deaths, obviously enemy is tanked here too, but Cuomo perceived, and, I think was a visible, proactive leader and people liked that now hindsight being twenty twenty, we see mistakes right were made, in particular with nursing homes, getting something it's it's that promos really getting a lot black for now, but he was perceived to be a strong, invisible leader. I think that the

There is opportunity, in some of the economic stuff, to make pathways in and in some way. That's probably trumps like this work. It's like his twenty sixteen instincts towards populism. But yeah, I think you know short answer, is yes, you could have a leader who did well under this were look Armenia. I think we saw worldwide? There are alot of leaders who have become more popular because their response to the current virus- in fact it's been them- were common pattern, actually and, of course, most countries have risen. It better or at least in ways that seem more reassuring, incoherent right, there's like both the kind of objective fact for U S, response has not gone well, and the fact that, like there's, no coherent message yeah. If there is some scenario, if we wake up on November, fourth and Trump has when we election than I I think the most likely Usenet is Miss because of a turn around the corona virus numbers or other data, the corona virus, right where

let's say that the south West get through this current phase, one can age and that by the fall then, looks like member it. We could have a second wave, birth or waiver whenever in the winter, but that's not relevant election right. It could look by the fall like we ve, been through the most of it the numbers, are following that the death rate in particular is falling because fewer people, this new kind of cohort of cases seem to be seen, be dying right and there are some, treatments now that further lower risk there promising news about seems and the economy now people certainly more comfortable they're. Coming back a little bit. I'm embarrassed areas can draw up where, where that happens, we'd trunk credit for it. I don't know right if a hundred two thousand Americans have died or hundred seventy thousand, but then are down a lot by November. Will I get credit for eight? I tend to think not a ton, especially it seems like the price this is happening despite him

not because of him, But there is uncertainty in the common outlook and some others, scenarios could benefit trump even given that you know when people talk about presidential elections, oftentimes they focus a law on the economy, is a realistic to think of that approach could we re election with eleven percent unemployment and and just the general- making society the tell me I know you ve been doing research into economic data and elections working on them all right now, and just that data alone looks pretty grim, regardless of who the president is right. Yeah I mean, although economic were cast. Her still do predict a rebound although it is not clear what is because they making about the corona virus. If you assume that we're through the worst of it. By May then, ok, you start everybody can be more severe by November. Obviously we were not for the worst of it.

By May, or at least only half the country was neither have as having the worst of it now right. There probably still is. Time by November. Right. If this were August September, be different in early July, probably is still time for things improve significantly by November by yeah. Look I mean that This is going to be. We looked actually at all economic. All access. Take me back to eighteen, eighty and it kind of went under fairly optimistic scenarios. This is going to be one of the four or five worst economies for any president, since eighteen, eighty and by the a sum of stimulus money will start to run. Our like Perry said I I would want to get as much stimulus money into the hands of as many people as possible if I were Trump, where lookin right the fact that Democrats seem failing to do. This is giving you like free ways to curry favour with our constituents. Are there some, like Republican, deaf, spending earth aunt egalitarian ideology is preventing that that's pure turmoil suicide, I think

so yeah mean that would be the first thing I do is say: ok, all the stimulus money that we, Let's extend that for another three months ripe, while these cases there have not gone down in the south are getting resolved. We have few more, maybe more far fetched strategies to discuss. So, let's talk about a rather sinister strategy, to some degree it seems like the Republican Party could be using, and that is basically mess with the election. So try to implement voting restrictions in shore that not everyone has the opportunity to vote by mail, which is something that Trump has been very out spoken about already generally attack institutions. Potentially you no credible reports have said that president from has already asked foreign powers to influence the watching so how realistic of a strategy is this generally messing with things to try to win reelection its superiority

it's already happening. It's gonna be a big part of the next four months or however long we have to go. I mean, as you laid out in their different, very different things that fall under that seem you know headline, but you know the currency in the trunk campaign. Even for you know, we're going to have a vote by male pandemic rate. There were already a lot of lawsuits about voting rules. There already you know there was the desire to hire a lot of people to be pull watchers, which is historically a very racially motivated way of suppressing votes at the Paul. So it's a big part of this year's election in part because of just the uncertain state of how voting will happen in November, we said it a million times on this podcast. We don't know what the state of covert nineteen will be like in November throughout the country. Although the more we know about the virus, the more we know that Really bad inside and more people are gonna be inside and November, so that for as a lot of uncertainty and enter into all of this, and I think the idea of Trump

for the past four years sewing and uncertainty into people's minds about the election system in fraud is there is really damaging and that kind of has it in the obviously the internet area era and in the air of you, know, fake trolls and bots, and all that stuff there's a lot of fertile ground for people feeling discouraged by the system and and therefore not wanting to vote. So that's all effective wave of getting of messing with with the system when the overseers America elections are run at state level, not at the federal level and so allow the effort two like make it harder to vote by mail or in Texas, whether you their like by mail, if you're over thirty five, but not understood understood by which obviously Avengers Republicans the wind I think I think all these things are problematic. Gonna happen. I say, though, that the state level as it becomes

more normalize, the idea that Trump is probably going to lose and if he is down seven or eight points as we get near the election and people are talking about what happens posts tromp. Why shovel? and so on. I think you're Instead of your, the Secretary of State in your republic in Arizona too, cannot do things that are going to maybe help Trump win, but probably won't give him over the line anyway, and we can be very your virtual git you attack a lot and we beheld it, help hurt your career going forward I figure and sinister that might be going down, like I think trump himself is. Thinking more about the idea that he might lose and like why this unfair and in some ways he's himself nearly sort of normalizing. The idea that he might lose don't expect him to do, and so I think, if the Republicans in these states who run the election system, I think, may

have lower incentives to do things that I think are nefarious than they would have. The election is really really close. Maybe I'm wrong, but unless my only thing that I feel that may be different than a few months ago, yeah, that's fair, but in a perry brings up the idea that the idea of the fact that our country has, you know Non centralize election states run away tens and that's good in many ways, because this is imminent. Moving to a point about hacking in the election and obviously we know from John Bolton's book, the trumpets is potentially been soliciting other countries to interfere. The fact that our system is decentralize is good in a lot of ways, because you couldn't quote like hack the entire election you couldn't, Well, your way into one spot. You know in an essay computer or something and throw everything off, but because you're responsible for running their own elections, youth. You find a lot of really desperate cyber security means, so

Burma's. I'm voter registration portal might be complete, whereas California, it is amazing and really technologically tight by public health for actually does have a pretty good history of cyber security and voting, and this remains a huge problem. I think that the Russians got into the back end of something like sixteen online voter registration systems and the lead up to twenty. Sixteen, they didn't do anything but the kind of like let it be that they were there. So the idea, the different states have different systems and the cyber security and, frankly, just like the human error involved with elections you're supposed to air gap, election machines, Alot of states- don't necessarily do that restrictive, strictest possible way. So there are still a lot of opportunities, for you know not necessarily like change votes, but to disenfranchised people right if your name, if, if your information on your voter registration, doesn't match the idea that you present

the pulling place well, you're pallaby, given a provisional balladur, you know you might not be able to give me, might not be given the opportunity to vote and that kind of causes a whole bunch of broadening effects. So so that suffers as a real worry that I think is like talked about less this year. Just because there's lots of stuff happening here. I mean visit a question that we get a lot from listeners who ask about the fact that various ways of messing with the election could, a fact. It result me. I'm curious. Do think that any of the things we discussed here are are serious enough, that you would think about it as a possibility for changing the result of the election. I think is a really difficult question. As there are things that have permanent affections have shortlived effects. Right I mean look. The fact is that Republicans of gin they tried to make it harder for the sorts of people who

are less inclined about republic, and especially people of color, to vote on its back and forth if people are going to be easy in and governor every second secretary of state is different. Now, look in the short run if there is concern about making it tough for someone to vote that can motivate people to be more cartoons about making sure that they do have multiple plans about so, in the short run voice Their suppression may be counteracted by activating voters. In the long run it kind of his different and it can get baked in and be one of the barriers that you just face tat, you have to kind of make a plan if you're African American, a place with credit precincts to vote right. It's not as simple as just saying I'm just going to go to my precinct to maybe have to wait for twenty minutes and let you know no big deal right.

So, there's like a cumulative fact that I think, probably has potentially fairly big effects on the electorate, The marginal effect of any one year is a lot more debatable and then there you know, and then there's kind of like not always a fine line between the fact that things are kind of big and obvious, like lines, for example like the fact that in most states, felons can't vote and that you'd leads to a huge amount of disenfranchisement of after Americans and states and other minority groups like these things, have pretty big effects right but like, if you kind of kind of and go from that to like this notion that oh the GNP steel the election. Somehow I mean that becomes like that, becomes a lot more complicated and that terminal you can kind of substitute for more precise. Claims that can then be kind of assessed and evaluated. So, like the three Can we write directly, but then you have to watch this a sufficiency of what you're kind of saying,

happening you have to kind of distinguish the the short run from the long run impact I want you to think about their and as a topic that I know we're gonna come back to you over the next four months, but I dont want to let this podcast and without bringing up another possibility for helping out Republicans in perhaps turn round their fortunes. This fall and also a hot topic over the weekend, which is a famous third party candidate coup, may wage, a writing campaign and whether or not that could have some effects on the origin. Of course, I'm referring to Kenya West announcing that he is going to run for president. I no, that as members of the media, we should be careful about how much legitimacy we even give to this announcement. So we have saved it for last, but before we do go, I do want to hear your thoughts on how this could affect. The auction does fall.

So twenty eighteen pole from you, girls made us put this online just now steam. Nine percent of Democrats have an unfavourable view of Congo with thirteen percent and a favourable view. Fifty two percent of in pensions and unfavourable view of. Can u thirty percent a favourable view? Among Republicans, thirty four percent favourable forty troopers? unfavourable suggests, it is worth thinking about there. A lot of the coverage will assume kind yea with these black hints black vote, but it might be worth thinking about his kind. You will have more appeal to Republicans than to black people and therefore Democrats I mean, arriving apparent that it's good, that we have the pulling numbers on it, I mean

I think I'm a little bit of the attitude of like, I can't believe we're talking about Kanye West, like someone texted, a group chat, I'm on this weekend, which is like you're like oh, my gosh is Connie actually running for president. I did not reply and that's kind of how I feel in general love, Kanye's, music, ultralight beam in the life of Pablo was like the soundtrack to the the twenty sixteen primaries in my head, but he is in no way a serious candidate but congrats to him for continuing to be relevant, like I dont think, Genji likes Conny at all mean they're off your kind beyond, say mom, so I don't know what they think about Conway. I don't Maybe Chris Jenner also has a hand in this, like I could spend some. Could some pr conspiracy theories about that but like like, is keeping for the carnations up like any season and is even album thanked me. Those the most obvious answers here and not like oral guy

he also faces logic coach challenges in that the ballot deadline for independence, has passed and a handful of states with current electoral between them it will soon pass and a number of their safety to get a lot of signatures very quickly right, It's not so easy to just kind of run for president right. That means something you know that file any statement of cancer. The federal Elections Commission as we are aware as of Monday early afternoon. I don't know yeah. I guess I'm kind of like what about a right and campaign. Gale and you are. The third so much debate here yeah. I know you think you're matters very much and also the other oil, take away black motors right like look it, there polling like good, inciting on light. When people do you want, as a politician who we appeals, is a pretty outspoken. Try supporter right so like,

no, I don't even know it- takes. Two people have to be stupid. How takes on a holiday again right, like Iowa It is well he'll, take the black vote from from Biden right. I mean why wouldn't take like not sure how to put this on. I'm excited the vote, so white people who want to demonstrate that the token is there nothing front is phrases tat. I think that's all Put that make people like you know I don't really like prom, but I want some new kind of shake up the system and it just not at all obvious to me kind of if you got one percent of the vote two percent over as a right, and it's not at all obvious to me kind of where that would come from necessarily right, because that way elsewhere for by mid selling theirs a huge amount of enthusiasm for Biden anyway right it's that, like people, Stan that, like, if you dont want trump

and there's a lot of these. He hasn't against Trump right. That Biden is the best way to facilitate that. I don't know some people might so still get that Yes, the one thing that I want to forwards closes. I gather the kind yea has decided Trump, is two races to support is how we should like this. What does this tell us about? Conyers politics is Emmy, not maybe I don't give a chinese politics, but is if there is a small number of black republicans who have been with Trump these last four years- and I do I it's a little. But I do wonder if this is maybe these last six weeks are going to try going from like ten percent ever put black people too, like six percent, this is like it can. You can't be was trump anymore, who can be withdrawn? Maybe I'm giving can use political views to my series is, but I do want it. This is a sign that very few black we want appear in public with drop in the future

are you people who used to like yeah, maybe of with the Navy's went over the line last three weeks? I think its chair, I mean this is, I think, seriously. I think it's also just a reflection of like colonies. Family was input embarrassed by his trump support that was pretty clear and a lot of ways like you may, like his fairly mingling like him. Are you mean like his like he's waiting about? It came crash in I think in the family, see While she is obviously worked with Trump, I think they were

believe they hosted some sort of Hillary Clinton fundraiser there they had very least donated. I assume that there are some family conversations happening in the background and, yes, I'm sure, like the George Floyd stuff, riled Conny up, but I do think he's like if we're taking colonies, politics seriously, which, like every what I do know that people are areas in Craddock and there we should take people's power politics seriously, because whatever other countries kind of like in this weird space between contrary and his em and kind of like Wu Wu spirituality when it comes to politics So I think it's more dislike egotism. Far enough. I have to admit also I had one more thing on the west of things that Republicans could do to turn their law around and it was trumps resignation, and I understand that I don't know anybody thinks that's realistic, but what it turn Republicans law around, that's a whole podcast

think. Hence with you. I have been disparaging pits repeatedly this black, yes and I would say to Canada dispense. I dont think that helps a lot, but it probably helps bright. I mean I, you think right now, tromp is in the way he is behaving is like. Very sub optimal the ways together Ben reflagged. We the way he like his approach to cope with and race is problematic in a way that I dont think MIKE Pince. What approximate I think, like a Nicky Hayley, would obviously be better. So yes, if the Republicans give him off the ticket and get somebody normal in there is hard to imagine, A sort of normal republic will be down ten, maybe they're down seven. So I think this right. In the civil war and the Republican Party that it would take to get trumped up the ticket. Maybe It means that I am going to backtrack a little.

And say maybe that's not worth it, but I do think a normal candidate will be better than Trop right now. Is that controversial even could be? Because yeah me now. You like you, think, maybe now as bases dispirited and like everyone else like ok, I while terms from where I might as well go. The other party amounting in part, because Biden is his kind new generic, I'm right, though might work is if let's have a nominee, worrisome were left reality. It was Warren or Sanders and there were a lot of allergenic wars and should be way ahead? Like Biden has frankly right, but there might be a lot of others were like you know what this is a bridge too far for me better been so bad like I'm going to have four Bernie Sanders, even though I M kind of a centre right, you know whatever lie or something you know, I think people might be thrilled to vote for a pad. Sir, a highly right I think that the alternatives biology we, like you, know it publicans gonna, throw this up so badly.

Cinema forbidden anyway he's kind of a centrist than I can trust and then a Republican for Congress. Maybe so twelve resignation using would not necessarily help Republicans. It would dampen the enthusiasm among his base. I mean it's It increases the hail Mary it might. Them a little bit in Congress aright while as adequate place for us to leave this blue sky brainstorm session of how republican can turn their fortunes around for the fall. Anyone have any other wild, crazy ideas. They want a proper before reclose, the only thing to think about is the alternative dispute. And screw up some or illness, and I don't see the synergetic he's running a good kind of in the base. Has become a cliche and he actually does want to speeches raised. But I think the question is: why is it something by and could do wrong and another vs negotiable, turnabout alternative prairie having gotcha. I guess also as something of a can control

MR, but I mean I can't control how they try to shape the public's view of him, which is maybe something that we didn't talk about. Here is a strategy, but I may be changed their attack plans. I dont know. If there's anything, I can do that, can govern ten points, but anyway, I've got a good place to to leave it. So thank you need, thank you Galen. Thank you. Clare, thanksgiving and beg you bury. Thank you. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the virtual control room, giving and touch my emailing us, at podcast at five, thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening, what's yours.