Aren't some people really good at creating plays and then they the bad when they actually are the shooting guard. Do you like my mixed sports, metaphors its? kind of work hello and welcome to the five new politics packaged I'm dealing droop, and it is time for some announcement music. If you are listening to this pod cast? It means that former vice President Joe Biden has announced his candidacy for president. He brings the tally of Democrats running for president to somewhere between eighteen and twenty, depending on how your counting- and I say, if you're listening to this podcast, because we're recordings pot cast on Wednesday, with the expectation that former vice President Joe Biden will announce on Thursday. Who knows maybe this package will be

time, but I doubt it so. Let's get into why Biden will or won't be the next democratic nominee in here with me, too, that are editor in chief needs other? Has it good, so the peace that you already the site this morning, which is not yet done? is being written by me right now and will have to be added my by angry editors. Play some hour in the evening or early morning, in some very embedded in the mindset of like my bide Miller, won't run. I thank you for that will pick behind the curtain right. There also but, as is singer product writer Clem alone, has again egeland, hay and also with us is very big. Junior senor writer. How are you bury

Are you doing? Well, let's dive into this and, as Nay said, he is responsible for writing Joe Biden theory of the case for the website. So, let's begin with unit and before we get into specifically why he will or won't win, let's place him in the Democratic Party. What is his ideological policy background, while they're kind of two ways to answer it and the way you answer it will very much effect the He runs this campaign him what his chances are right of it to us. One way to see him is as a unifying can ape that carry forward kind of Morocco bombers legacy of the party at a party that is largely about african american and White Democrats. It's a party that is, not supervised laugh, but his kind of liberal or neoliberal is kind of more aware on maybe social issues and economic stairs, I believe in the welfare state. For us, but are not in burning territory. It say

a party that heavily emphasizes alike billowy and in the west. But he, where party elites establishment still gets would have what it wants most a time right, that's kind of the party that Biden wants it to be. The alternative is that the democratic party- is frank you're, describing what the Democratic Party is. Our who Joe Biden as well, I think those are the gutter obeyed is the Democratic Party in we'll alternative is that the party is fractured and or has moved in different directions. From from four and eight and five years ago, when Biden was first on the ticket, as vice president I would say that, given where the party is now, that Biden represents older more moderate voters. If you look at voters her baby boomers are older and his their moderate or conservative, it's about a quarter of the electorate and not coincidental, Biden has about a quarter, their vote, maybe thirty percent and pulls so by the way for the time being,

Caution is multi ethnic, where he actually does better with black voters them with white voters. Samples maybe a little worse with Hispanics, but not bad, so he doesn't just get why voters, which is kind of a problem for like near PETE or something. But I think is he a factional candidate. Z. A consensus candidate is a big debate, he's a consensus candidly tender women whose factional then She'll he has some of the problems at Bernie. Sanders might have, for example, are well we'll get a lot more into that throughout this conversation, but its interest, but you say who provide a new kind of depends on how you view the Democratic Party Clare and Perry. Do you agree with that assessment, who Joe Biden isn't where he fits into the party incinerating framework, not just about Joe Biden, but about Joe Biden will tell us where Democratic Party. Actually is because, if you're on staff at five The aid or, if you listen to this podcast, you probably pay a little bit more attention of politics than a lot of Americans

Have you been paying attention to politics in the last couple of years? There have been a lot of movements on the left have gotten a lot of attention. A sea devils Ex Socialists Bernie, right we should have voted for him. He could have beaten trump that those kind of sentiments of some people my column over correcting for twenty sixteen whatever, but there's been a lot of ideas as like. The democratic party is ideas meeting where there are no bad ideas. That's kind of been like the political world for that couple of years, and I think Biden, during the race is kind of this. Ok. But what are your parents think right? and or what are your grandparents where's, your aunt pink, and maybe they agree with Some of the big ideas in the ideas meeting- or maybe they say I don't offering broke so that's kind of to me biden- think needs framework, as is right, which is Biden Kind of test, the. How many of the ideas are gonna catch on verses, like our aid,

If it ain't broke, let's go with, but that's interesting Perry. Where do you go down on us, so clear cases like me we saying is that bite and release right now has more support with a demographic themselves moderate Conservative and those who call themselves liberal and then he has more support among Democrats who are over fifty, then under fifty in pretty much all the parts of that tells you something about, where his supported these right now my come from in? I think it is another. Welcome is devised for, like a better word, to describe that and then terms like where the party is the democratic majority in Congress compared to two thousand nine one in the house now many more majority and many more with the net says Joe Biden. This kind of outer step were parties going a little bit engine, Surely, like maybe the unity expect. The party was getting more diverse. To go in that direction in terms of like I will see an ideology is a very clear split between kind of the more left people

war in LOS Angeles, easier Cortez, external people like that versus people were or centre left Link Nancy Policy by then ideological split. I think I'll be very interesting to wash because I'll be curious to see light Joe Biden, announced on Thursday. What is his exact raising of his health care position, that I'm curious blessing? I think I know what it is, but I'll be curious to see how he frames way. What do you think it s just to get that on the record, though, I suspect is something like I am for allowing people who want to get into Medicare the ability to do so. I am not for Medicare for all necessarily- and I am certainly not for a single payer. So the public option is not exactly a public subsidies. That use the phrase. Will be brought with them, it is certainly not like Medicare for all in the way Bernie Sanders restocking Wonted, I'm kind of curious about four. When Biden gets in the race, you know

so many of these say CNN town halls or the goggles people have with candidates after their events, though, ask them structural questions about democracy. I e should we abolished the electoral college you know should be pack the Supreme Court Then you get into other question like pretty hot button questions disport reparations. Do you support giving felons the right to vote and I'm curious about how a how Biden answers those I think I've a decent idea of how he does workers, I think he's probably gonna, take the track of like let's not fuck, with this stuff too, ran an ice and I'm kind of curious to see what an aversion Buick yeah. I really want to deal with that stuff either. I won't be Donald Trump. Stop asking these these annoying questions, because so again to go back to the initial. My first thing I said, which was their mental, ideas in this idea, meaning for the past two years about the democratic party level. Marketing zone around and see, and in town halls

and you see someone like, for instance, Harris having to kind of walk back her sort of vague answer that fell in voting Joe by I'm guessing has a pretty clear answer about that stuff and end sort of I'm. I'm curious to see how that review. Rates within like the new cycle within moderate voters being yeah, I agree with him. Don't touch that I'm here trying to be the most work ran. I mean he's not trying to be the policy candidate gonna be Joe just trying to be funny. I think the campaigns theory. The case is that this policy stuff does not matter as much as the personal qualities of a candidate, so someone scene is honest and authentic is of very loaded turn but like a term, I think Biden would apply to himself, probably turn round about where the second somebody's authentic is a term that binding would probably I too have stopped. Now. I think we need to NATO's democratically regional Authentic made us had made. Is that ok, thank you, so, what's got into the nuts and bolts of those in need, you kind of free

the question as is, provided a cost, this candidate, or is he a factional candidate? So maybe we'll keep that in mind as we're going through this, but give us the case for I he will win the democratic nomination cause he's a heaven the Poles it does not. The rap without delay declared so binds point twenty eight percent an average of national poles. Twenty five percent in Iowa. You know if you went around up to thirty- that's pretty decent number, where historically candidates who are pulling at thirty percent the stage windup winning about one in three times, which is obviously you lose two out of three times and went down that math. We know that it's down a gigantic sample. Going back to nomination processes, acted seventy two and that if you have a name In addition, if you were to have lower namer conditional in that Western Europe, obviously really strong right, so there is a fairly significant gap between Biden. Anyone else

pulls people that are lumping vitamin brain together are like not being very careful because burns at twenty and binds at twenty an empirical? It's a pretty relevant distinction? Secondly, like we are talking about someone who was the vice president for eight years, and A lot of concerns that might affect voter perceptions of other candidates are not going to a union with Biden, because voters are like he was a vice present for eight years under Obama. I know him. I trust him. I have information about him, how bad can't possibly be and by the way, when former vice president seek their parties nomination since world war? Two, they have succeeded in winning the nomination six out of nine times so being a VP is very formidable credential he as among the highest immobility ratings in the field, which would suggest that it's not just about me ignition by the wave survived fairly well in the polls. Initial new cycle about him being, as I can

pansy by inappropriate touching toward women, he is viewed as electable, so he does have Democrat right now in poles against Trump, is that in Munich indicator short answer. No, to be honest, however, it is a good talking point. As for lots of resources, more elected so here's. The question I want to ask, which is we have all this polling p have an idea of who Joe Biden is in their heads but kind of my big question in the big question I'm getting in the races. Democratic voters have this almost like: do they have the manic pixie dream, girl, vision of Biden in their heads right? The perfect candidate, the one that you ve manufacturing your mind is the pinnacle. One. You can do it, but the big question is: what's the reality of Biden in a twenty nineteen race look, I think honestly, one important thing with Biden is like the people who support Biden are not the people that are hip and cool

that journalists are gonna, run concurrently with their social circles right. You know I have this long. Peace will see how The other, stop it down all the strengths and weaknesses. One thing I do not think is a weakness for Biden. I dont think the fact that he's not far enough is a major detrimental reason for him, because half of democratic their model- Her centrist yet comes from older democrats. It comes from so what I M going to attract a lot of it. I guess I'm trying to say there is like yet some of it is even that israeli thinking about how the younger Democrats will react to. I guess it's twofold right: it's a will. I didn't supporters, who are those older, moderate Democrats, still kind of like what ass to say as an older guy on the campaign trail, given the fact that there are other you anger, moderate white man, let's say options to have themselves in some ways competing at those other modern like eyes, but then I guess to take my was new thing about this, but to take needs point of yeah binds not gonna, be appealing to like mediator

to the social groups of media types Hamish, we think that that will play in two The initial image launch a binding, which is to say how will adverse opinions by go on television or people writing for national newspapers. How might that play into buttons launch? I think the campaign expects perceive pretty critical media coverage and for that to be probably a theme throughout the primary, and so you can say like. On the one hand, I actually think the media is loaded to lunch on some of the staff and the underestimate how older or less complicated regrets be or how many of them actually are not super left on certain issues at least, but I do think the drip drip drip of constant negative media coverage can be impact, but I think it was impossible for Hillary Clinton in TWAIN. Sixteen, I think Biden it will attract similar coverage. Where he's a boring story, because he is the front runner Sanders, sort of his two

Sanders inherently is kind of like an underdog and Biden doesn't have that you know. Maybe train harness. Some of that is like a backlash, but it's easy Republican can't, if you in hard for democratic to say, oh the media's, treating me unfairly Democrats don't into make accusation, because there oh journalism and whatever in and Democrats, don't tinted latch onto it when the candidates do make it worse come commented several times now about how the Democratic Party is perhaps more moderate than it might have seemed over the past four years or how the media might portray it. I know that you. Ve done a decent amount of work looking into the make up of the two parties and how they run against some of our assumptions. What does the Democratic Party look like today and what do you think that means for Biden chances and it s saying. If you look at the Pew Data on the Republican Party resemble like most Republicans, our conservative Thinketh likes seventy per citizen themselves, conservative- something like thirty themselves- is a liberal- are minor personal democratic,

is much more even is about fifty two liberal. The moderate conservatives, you know has been all these pieces twitter is not real life. That's true, but congresses way more white enriched in real life dues of our very few. My problems are realised. That said, the loudest ways in the Democratic Party are on Twitter are probably to the left of where Joe, by but I did a piece early in the year, the lives and like the moderate democratic vote. I think one thing to you, MRS about by than is never than any clover sharp exam. The moderate vote in the Democratic Party, is about forty percent non white, though it's not just Michael Bloomberg. Thou, like you know socially liberal economic, conservative moderates, some of the matters or people in West Virginia were probably more culturally conservative and economic liberal or really nasty, were well up Napster. The suburban are you think of his moderate mood. Minorities, obviously are a different policy, backed the journal, buying

What matters to me is not the slightest sign and being sort of centrist on policy having it tells you something about the fact that he has been vice president he was vice president for Barack Obama? The earth black resident he's been time campaigning in Black these into. Doesn't doesnt well he's, not just the Elect white guy. He starts up more than that with a much broader base of the park. The ideologically and demographic aren't. I When we talk about binds electoral strength, we talk about how he was as president for the first black president of the United States. What does the pulling show us about how successful he is with african american voters and do we expect him to suffer at all, is perhaps call Harris or coy. Brucker spend more time on the trail are in the debates, like our obviously too high profile black candidates in the presidential race. Does that change the math at all. As we move further into the calendar, though

picked up. The morning council data suggested after now he's doing he's in the thirties, with African Americans is higher than Harrison Booker origin, below two percent or in the teams Anders is doing pretty well too, but so be it doing better with black voters than white voters. In some of the surveys, I've seen actually net. Maybe some they might even think of something else going on to their. What I would say is that, in its help, work as you have United States in the South, South Carolina, for example, and one I would say, like when I think of the first three months of this campaign, if you better work in particular and of your Corey book. And you're a camel hair. As I would say, you have to look at the first three months is a failing of some sort that The kinds of voters were left, but not super left a white and black who might find you appealing, though, far him. Stuck with Biden, not embraced you it's hard for me to

by running, if Harris, Booker or better was twenty or twenty by answered amused suggests those I didn't it's. A double edged sword buying is doing well earlier, but I do think a really strong Uncommonly Harris or Booker campaign. I think those candidacies are the best versa themselves is hard for me he might end up doing better with like voters and Joe Biden, those are lacking. The earth, like you know, president, would be important. Calling card, simile, bento or mere PETE does continues to grow, do really well. I do things on these more moderate Democrats may look at them and be like well, better or mere p c mon two. We rather has many a little bit more exciting and a seven year. Look anything like narrowly among African Americans. I think there is some expectation with his camp Eriksson Booker will gain ground but that bind will hold its own but like that, could cost him a couple of points that mean like when it worry me more. If I were Biden angry, the lungs peace is right. Now he bent

it's a lot from perceptions. Are he is electable? I wonder if, as Democrats get to know the other candidates better, whether that valuable abate and they'll say you know what. I initially has can had concerns as voters do about whether with Warren was electable However, now I've seen these people endorsement. I've seen her do well these debates, and maybe now her pulling its trump, is a little better cookies, better known and ocean, did well in Iowa, you know same with me, oh I'm not really sure if a guy can be elected president, but now I see other people voting for him. So I wonder if, like by numbers like electricity is an advantage, but I wonder as members are a little bit inflated by that there is a phenomenon where they will manage energy, big BC. Where we look at all these men who are doing well in the film wonder where the women are doing better, and there are a lot of answers to that. But in relation to it could be that in the end, actually, the man. This ground as a group and the women

in ground, because a party is sixty percent. Women and Biden would be one of the candidates who would be hurt by that. Obviously, let's did you this conversation in just a moment, but first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to buy quip one of the most important things we do for our health every day is brushing our teeth. Yet most of us don't do it properly. That's why quip was designed to make brushing your teeth. More simple, affordable and even enjoyable. Quip has sensitive sonic vibrations that are gentle enough on your sensitive gums, plus a built in two minutes. Timer pulses every thirty seconds mind. You went to switch sides, helping guide a full and even clean up to ninety percent of us. Don't bother brushing for a full two minutes or don't clean, evenly quip as one of the first electric toothbrushes accepted by the American Dental

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thanks. I want to talk a little bit more about. His weakness is actually pick up on where you left off needs in terms of the Elect ability argument. Can we quantify how much of his advantage is based off of the fact that voters perceive them practical canopy, acted upon California, where they asked Democrats who you like overall, and they asked them- who you think is mostly double and who do you like the most on policy? So, on the question of elected bill, a thirty five percent of Democrats, thought Biden was most delectable on the question of policy. Thirteen percent one three thought he had the best policy position You averages together, you want a kind of where he wound up a twenty six percent, saying that he was their top joy. So the question is what, if, like those elected bill, numbers erode they maybe I'll. Sonny's at night, instead of twenty six nineteen than you kind of military, where were you are more of a factual, can eight where someone else can likely Prague potentially, and so I think, like that,

It's a good argument that those elected billion numbers are more likely to decline than to emerge by the way Obama in two thousand eight initially was seen, I should also like to Hillary Clinton. A variety of things happen including pulling that showed Obama doing, as well as Clinton against Mccain or better to reverse those perceptions. Livings, like TED Candy, endorsing a all these things right and so what you worry about it Biden is that you're, starting at their third he's pretty good, but not that high elected Billowy is a reason to run for president, but it's not the soil, perfect one. I mean a key. Panes designed around elected ability is You have designed about a sort of a process, parental boaters care. About that I don't know the data shows the care about them. It has a little bit of a process. Once you have a little bit of a they'll, be bold, the charges you must stay? I actually been very curious. What Biden has to say on issues? Does he have some kind of vision of the country because you're not like you, whatever

mere peat is not a policy. Canada murky does have a certain vision and presentation. He is saying sooner worn and centres or policy candidates. Kamel Harrison Booker store parliament harder place after they have something to say. I do think one weakness you're is running a campaign that I'm the best candidate has before the vote. For me, if the other cannon, do well and actually present more compelling argument. And seem more electable. That becomes a problem, because these are these few money partner singers from violence there. I can tell the reporting, there's some vision and binds them where they should announce the campaign, how it should go, and I think that goes to the questions, we have seen about love images like you're running, as you would like to be president. You long planned to be president. You are appalling those are all good things, but may not sort of give a good structure to your campaign for a good reason. You gotta, be inspired and excited to both. I'll, be curious. Who move

I'll were to work for bite and lower his grass roots people who, who is killing themselves. Should he wins, because that's gonna, Michael questions like what is this campaign about besides, like to go so we were talking about the debility numbers, possibly being an early advantage that could a road other question. I've heard a lot about Biden's like potential vulnerable these down the road. Even though he seem strong right now is name recognition, so our his pulling numbers propped up at the moment, based on the fact that he has universal name recognition, or is he popular in his own beyond that. I'm going to get a little bit of a red Herring, Canada to have high lit My mission dont tend to lose ground so much as that connects with low recognition tend to gain ground, and so the problem for all the democratic candidates, but especially by and Sanders at like on a name mission, adjusted basis that p Buddha judges actually pretty close at least a burning now that he gets about ten percent support with

fifty percent name Recognition Bernie is twenty percent support with a hundred per cent mimic recognition? It's actually kind of not clear, pulling better in that sense Biden is, is at thirty percent or twenty eight percent, which is alarming. Still, but now I think he was vice president for eight years again right and it is not some token. This waste Isn't he someone who Democrats had very favourable and very deep feelings about, and I think that is like more robust than people might assume, even has big Canada energy to compete with binding there's enough I got the sense that, if any one that might be worried about right now, I'm gonna going to be very April twenty fifth, two thousand and nineteen now that maybe the most worried about Mare PETE, because he is at this point, probably Poland. The best out of any one, is in use in their laying a little bit as far as binds nothin in west per SE is kind of a clause I made westerner right, but he's in there lay in a little bit as far

he's trying to reach out and be the reasonable guy, I think they probably assume in South Carolina that come on Harrison. Booker are potentially big problems. I think they for now are helped by the fact that neither a club ajar frankly better at this point, got off to a great start, however, both which are about our pretty explicitly The ILO lane- and I think Biden really needs to do well, and I I think, if the if Britain doesn't when Iowa, then someone else does at that what else is a club which are a mere pete or a burning me can play our bento. You can play our Booker play any one of those scenarios and Raymond scenarios, all the sudden that person is probably is probably ahead of of of Biden. Conversely, they're kind of problem: perfectly happy to have Bernie doing well. If Bernie is at twenty percent or twenty two percent, or whatever that means that there is not as much of the vote to go divided between the other candidates, No. I didn't talk to the campaign about this. This is just now needs opinion. You know I do

but somehow became a one on one between I didn T and Bernie, I think Biden would feel pretty couple that he would win that. Probably it also hard in some sense to match that happening as they have like when you go through and where the article and look at all, These natives of Biden, like Bernie, has like a lot of these negatives. Brings us your actually the other vulnerability I wanted to bring up, which is age right yeah, so Joe Biden is seventy. Six right now would be seventy eight. If elected president, when he took office, we know that voters have feelings about, elderly presidential candidates. How much of a vulnerability is up for him, I think, can be huge vulnerability NBC Did a pole wild or they ask voters what you think about someone over the age of seventy five. How concerned would you be about nominating someone like that and sixty two percent of general election Russia, they had reservations about voting some who seventy five or older twice as many as he would have reservations about voting for a gay candidate four times as much

is whenever this is but a woman candidate, whatever else right and so what my only had the new cycle, where there is somehow scare or Booker or mere PETE, say something about their age and there's a little kerfuffle about it. We have a new cycle. There's parliament just things like Odin and Bernie could melt on that basis. We don't have launching its interest in four candidate, this old, although from seventy two just to get that up although we do have some precedent, at least from like the health point of View and John Mc and ran for president, because a cancer survivor released quite a few health records people who work or lease previously people who should have countries about their health or concerns about their health were pre emptive about that and I'm curious. If widens team, how much they release health records are. How much he's shown doing vital active thing

on the trail mean these? Obviously, a pretty spry guy for his age, fit guy Sprise freight in turn, So I don't know it's the only about the health question. The older person question is interesting warrant. See nine Trump was what Sixty nine when he was running, was sixty. Nines Mackay sixty nine at this point twelve years ago. Agnes. Seventy six and Bernie is seventy seven. They would be as old on the first day of their terms as Donald Trump would be, the last Davis, it term put niner type and smoke it? They are old and to the point, where alike journals. I didn't realize how old they were, like other kind of say, may just want, maybe you're older. You know they're like five years. Eleven Trump as we wrap up. I want to bring us back to a question that we paused at the start, which is is Joe Biden, a consensus or factional candidate, and that probably effects also how he wrote

I mean you'd, obviously prefer to be the consensus. Can a right, but one can. We haven't, talked about much as the hallmarks of the consensus caddy. If they have a lot of support from the party, they have a lot of endorsements, they dominate fund raising, I dont think any of those things are gonna, be true with Biden we'll see he's got a few endorsements. He got Andrew Cuomo, a goddamn Feinstein, probably few more by the time you listen to this, but like I think the most likely path is that he tries consensus. Lane finds that the going is tougher than he. Thanks and it's rough and tumble kind of very wide, open primary and begins and in or default toward a more combat a persona where he's kind of fighting to hold on to his twenty five percent, and he thinks if I can hold onto my twenty five percent, and when Iowa or almost when I went in South Carolina, then people will drop out and I'm close enough to act as it can

where, where I will then, when the nomination right, I'm not sure that more work, you know and at some point he kind of actually becomes. Ernie innocence of like his Bernie strategies, pretty clearly I'm when I hate I'm gonna hold onto my twenty twenty five percent and find a fee. Who are the voters here and there I did get forty three percent in two thousand and sixteen and when the israeli state, and then it does, anyone can do about. It has not given me out with I'm winning Island Hampshire right. You know by Miss kind of making the same argument as it back up plan, but I don't think that's stretch for burning, I think it would not be agreed strategy for Biden either rather work for Trump right. I think it's a factional party, Guess it I don't want you know, I'm. I am genuinely curious about what Biden does to the race. My guess is the democratic parties, just a factual party right now, and therefore he will be affectional candidate. If, if he interests there is well when he others there is when I know it still, I Plato and if one

accordingly pot cast, but by the time it listening to this, it presumably will have happened, and I think we will leave it. There's a thank you name beg you made, your guy thinks Galen and thank you Perry. Then you and again, we hope, to see you in Texas, for our lives. Show we're gonna be in Houston on, may eighth go get it at five thirty, eight dot com slash alive. My name is Gale Andrew Turn. Each hour is in the control room. You ve touched by e mailing us apart, cast aside thirty dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of a shout, leave us a reading or review and the Apple pie cast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening, and we will her