Welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, my name is Jody Avirgan. It's an emergency podcast to discuss in big news that broke this morning. I am, of course, talking about the World CUP draw Spain and Portugal in the same pool. Crazy, wait you what the hell is going on with Russia's group, various Russia Subway, because actually the news is indeed about Russia as well. The mother speaking a rigging up a kidney old on as part of the Mahler Investigation, former Trump National Security adviser, Michael Flynn, has pledged guilty to lie. Owing to the FBI, about a meeting with the russian ambassador, probably to fix the World CUP pause in that meeting, we also learned, maybe more interesting Lee. That Flynn is cooperating with the mother investigation here to talk about it at all, it's over hill and eight ILO jury on the

on joining us is Clare, Malone, hello, Clare, dirty and next to me was killed her hence in hollow harry. You know I posted this news first and our slack channel about nine fifteen. I am, I was first there, so I just one credit for that. I can do some five. Thirty, eight Harry Harry broke this news, clear, ok about that internal neat, big news, but where four, contact sake? Do you think this ranks in terms of news that we have gone? about the mother investigation and, moreover, does this change in some, any fundamental way: you're thinking about the state of the rush investigation, There have been reporting that Flynn wasn't alone cooperating with crumbs defence attorneys, which was an indication. Many people speculated that he was going to flip or plead guilty, and so it's like you know, I think it's important on this story too.

I argue, is always very much like hey where we learn today that was surprising or new. This is a big deal. Rising. There is something surprising to me here. There are not very well ok, so if you know ABC has reported that that Flynn will testify that Trump directed him during the campaign to talk with Russia. Other news outlets say during the transition he was infected with Russia should be a different kind of ballgame. Potentially. So if, if ABC News, reporting is true that Trump himself was directing communications with Russia during the campaign, then that become something that goes pretty far down the road towards each man. I think clamp yeah, I think it well. These reports have basically say: Tromp was the one who directed to do it. Interesting because you know in some way there were only a couple people, basically that when it when we say

when we were getting always reported that senior adviser of a very senior trump campaign official or trouble This official directed went to do this. Will there only a couple option, but people are kind of thing what's he there questioner our Trump and now he's got them from ITALY. Multiple outlets reporting hate was Trump. I think that's a big deal connect the dots, The timing, this of when this meeting happened, is also interesting. Are our colleague Perry? They continue who, by the way, I point out, wrote three articles for the site this morning, so parry when some sort of no sleep award in his piece of other the news he wrote Harry. I think something interesting, which is that, in a somewhat to the conversation has been, we have about what happened during the election, and this is something that happened. And the transition. You know when the administration have kind of switched and was like in transition. Can a governing mode, and I think that that says something yeah I mean I just want to back for a second and point out- just everything. That's just so amazing about moment

This is a person and Michael Flynn who, at the Republican National Convention, led shares of four Hillary Clinton to court on call lock her up and obviously here the one who is now being potentially locked up for something more than that he was the national security adviser and Trump was: worn by every body not to choose this guy. Any chose them anyway, so regardless of where this eventually leads, I think it's important to continue to point out that this was just such poor judgment on behalf on the part of the sitting, president of the United States that he chose someone who clearly just is,

he's it's it's unbelievable mean this. They got him on a wide that everyone already knew that he lied to the FBI. It's the whole thing is just amazing. The president, the President, where tax relief statement this morning that is fascinating. He said today, Michael from a former national security, to advise her at the White House for twenty five days during that happened, ministries and a former Obama administration of the show at you to go equally, there would like they're really trying to do some summary envisioning of what happened here. There's no bigger sign that you're in trouble. Then someone in the Trump univer saying that they hardly know you like. That means that you reckon up in some fundamental way need we ve talked a long time about the sort of timing and the sequencing of these bits of news does it feel like

The latter that mothers moving up or is it still feel like this is gonna, be meandering and we're gonna get big news, small news so forth. Now, look I'm in sometimes these special council delegations can take years literally so he's moving at a pretty fast pace, which I think I am I mean I think no longer do I think that Republicans can postpone all of the kind of impeachment discussion until after the mid terms, you think this was the turning point for that. I don't think, and things will turn point I think it's. I think the trajectory he's been arching that way for awhile, basically a year right set itself

turn this a year ago the transition was an upswing in our own was in December yeah yeah. So we are. We are looking at a year since the events happened to this guy entering a guilty play, so it is quite enough quite stark amene. Yet I think it does kind of interesting to think about what mid terms will be like if this stuff is really becoming even getting back in the news, and you know it fell out of a news for review month and you would see occasional

sing neat mentioned earlier. You know we had some indications that that Flynn had was not with no longer communicated with with the Trump team, but it could be a fascinating shift in the political environment. I think that that is the question, at least politically speaking, is so for the russian investigations have been something of his energize the democratic base, but really has not directly impact of public opinion on the front of the trumpet Ministration large, especially among swing voters. It's not been something that, for the most part, is moved the polls. The call me stuff did in fact move the poles when you- I'd call me there is some evidence that that in fact, it occur, but for the most part you know when we had the charges earlier this year, you know of man effort that did not that that did not move the pulse so would be interesting to see if this is the type of thing that, besides the shifted and instead of hearing this, you will say. Oh talk more about health care talk, you know more about pocketbook issues. Forget the Russia stuff. Maybe now Russia does become something a little

More not saying well but may be well, and then the other thing that I I just want to pick up on something I was kind of hinting at open earlier, and that is you know, it is notable at you knows David, Graham, who writes rights very well in the Atlantic and points out its clinical notable that the charge against Flint Flynn is lying to the FBI at court in court. Because that's because it's been known or more or less known since February that he did so so clearly he's getting him on something that is

more in order to you know this guy I mean yeah. This is this, is yes Flynn might be facing five years in prison, but the other stuff that that I'm sure mothers team was waving in his face? Is the fact that in some of his turkish lobbying entanglements, so we say there is a pretty nefarious stuff that he might have been doing, including possibly kidnapping a turkish dissident and rendering him back to Turkey? So, like a plan and frankly megaphone son- were in trouble, and this is this is that this is the lesser of two evils for them by are yeah and, as is often the case of EU, and you look back at some these investigations and look at what the very first thread from the sweater that was put on

often the very small fish seeming thing, and then a car works its way up and other stuff untangle. So you I'm in clearly. This may not be the last time that Flynn has to enter a guilty cleared, or you know reckon with with the law, I'm a hit. Here's! What I think today means the combination of this news with the metaphor, news and everything right. It means that if Trump. Acted collusion, we're going to find out about it. I have no idea whether trumpeted or not- I think that's right and I

Have any idea, alas, him intuitions about how Republicans would react if it is proven, but they're not gonna, get away with anything any more right. If it happened, it will be found out and if we find out that he did, are we in impeachment talk territory legitimate peach men talk from both sides, territory again that depends on the present political standing. It depends the luck is an earlier. I think the timing of this might force Republicans make some choices before them in terms, I think it would be affected by the results of the mid term. Has an impatient processes is, can start soon, but we take a long time yet to investigate and play out. I think that's where people like Corker and wake and John Mccain Common, where

these are like that. I don't give a fuck. Are you know, Republicans who might say wow? This is really turned a corner here and we should we need to do. We need to take action. You know there's some again. We ve talked about permission structures over the past two years, a lot, but that could be a place where you know Democrats find allies with these kind of rogue old school establishment Republican. I think I I don't know. I think it was interesting that it was just yesterday that the times decided at that particular time to publish a piece call up with me. From private press top Republicans to end Senate Russia, inquiry and most that stuff occurred over the summer, but the fact that the Senate Republicans are kind of talking now. I think that, there's I replied, he's gonna Republicans are going to really I data

liked. I think a lot of em don't really like down front. They have to go along with our trump, because the base still likes Donald Trump, and you see what happens when you go against from you lose your voters, but they are all on its feels to me that there almost looking for a reason to be able some hard evidence, sums hard truths. And what came out today and what may come out eventually, I think is based upon today, is something that may give them get get them going on that road. It's like everyone, got back from Thanksgiving Break and then had a couple. Quiet com patients with times reporters over a copy, often in D C, if you can Ask your mind all the way back to you, no eight. Fifty five this morning, we were too how about this day, being a tax bill day, mapping the big story of the day so very quickly, Perry Police, What is? Does this have a ripple effect for that signature and possibly last

opportunity at a signature piece of legislation, I mean based upon all the reporting that we have seen and keep in mind that you know the time at which were taping. They have not yet voted on the Senate tax bill by all the reporting I've seen suggested. The Republicans do in fact have the votes to pass that tax, but obviously that could potentially change, but I dont think that this will affect that. I do wonder about the tag teeming of this, along with the passing of an unpopular tax bill in terms of public opinion granted, there has been no sign at least so far, that people care either about earthly swing, voters care about the rush investigation or the taxpayer to such a degree that it could, you know, lower trumps operating, but maybe we have some other thoughts on this. So this is not the most important day for the tax bill because as the Senate version- and the second version has differences with the house's version,

we'll have to be reconciled. I mean again, you know, look republicans want to pass this text good, yes, they're, looking for ways to do it by their negotiating in ways that they get They like even more problems didn't really want to pass the healthcare bill. They felt they had to pass the healthcare bill, but So I don't really see how like trumps standing, affects what Republicans wanna do. You know maybe prompts personal preferences for how his texts are affected was behind their decision to make it so far the corporations and not as much of the individual side but light, but they all seem really into it even Collins. Macao ceasing happy if they get little goodies here and there so again, I think that the tax bills not

by this very much. I think the other way around is interesting, though aware you know, let's say they get the tax bill past next month or something that could play out two ways we number one is it's kind of a successful trump and you have stupid media narrative about how it's a turnaround. Rhyme you'll see stupid reporters being stupid about it about stupid yeah, On the other hand, they could say well, look. We went one for two we didn't get health care that we gotta individualistic. Repeal the tax bill. Maybe we'll see that bears out, but we got taxes. So I went for two and, let's be honest, nothing much else is going to happen legislatively over the next. Year, and so you know, and so we need trump anymore, and I mean I don't know Ok, I think we should leave it there. Obviously, there are going to be a lot more news controlling in on this front and

Also, we will see what, by Monday, show what will have happened with the attack on. So we were gonna pick up these threads and and key talking thanks to mate and Clare and Harry, Moving faster from taking author, it once thanks everyone thank you and end listeners, of course, I'll stay tuned on Monday for Show- and you know I I was just reminded- looked on twitter and someone sent me, you know and said that this it is going to make the two pair grab summary of the Trump years in a history blocking or thirty years from now, which is a question we kind of in an ass on the show fairly often so, let it let's put that EU listeners, maybe over the weekend, tweeted and let us know if you think that today, this Michael Flynn NEWS because of this connection directly potentially could Donald Trump will make the history books, even if the two paragraphs well. You can tweak majority arrogant and are we? continue this conversation on Monday, thanks listening to this emergency podcast and was soon.