--On the Show:
--Reviewing the 4th Democratic Presidential debate, including the concerted effort to go after Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden asked about Hunter Biden, Bernie Sanders on healthcare, and much more
--This week's Hatriot Mail
--Donald Trump is effectively in the process of reviving ISIS based on his decision to haphazardly pull US troops from northern Syria, which immediately let to attacks on the Kurds by Turkish forces
--Donald Trump tax documents obtained by ProPublica appear to reveal fraud by Donald Trump, claiming different rent income and values for the same buildings depending on who was receiving those documents, be it his lenders or tax authorities in the state of New York
--Republicans are increasingly abandoning Donald Trump over the Ukraine fiasco, including Republican voters in the key election state of North Carolina, which was won by the Republican presidential candidate in 9 of the last 10 elections but may not go that way in 2020
--Elizabeth Warren's racist homophobic surrogate, Ashlee Marie Preston, is completely toxic and must be denounced by the Warren campaign after a litany of horrible tweets come to light
--An audio recording of Texas Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen surfaces in which Bonnen admits that Trump is "killing us," referring to Republicans, and the Republican Party is thrown into disarray as as result
--Voicemail caller wonders whether all of the distractions are just a distraction, including the appendectomy, Bernie Sa--nders, and producer Pat
--On the Bonus Show: NATO defends stance on Turkey/Syria situation, 1-year-old girl dies after being left in hot car all day, Ilhan Omar & AOC endorse Bernie Sanders, much more...
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The David Pakman show David Pakman dot com. Alright, let's start today presidential debate number four, which took place last night on CNN a roughly three hour affair. I did stream commentary for about the first forty five minutes of it before CNN.
Shut it down SAM Cedars Stream, getting shut down about ninety minutes in or so according to the tweets that I got turns
CNN is much more aggressive than anybody else when it comes to preventing any commentary streams about their debates. But we have time today
talk about it and in general, one would expect that overtime. You will have fewer participants in primary debates, although the democratic debate so far sort of going in the opposite direction after getting down from
eight to ten or eleven. We were back up to twelve participants yesterday and it was a complete and total mass, which is one of the things that I'll talk about. I decided I'm not going to play any clips from the debate in this segment. Two reasons really one. I want to have more time for commentary in a three hour debate. You know there weren't, really these short moments that lend themselves to
highlights per se, and in any case there are a whole bunch of you know. Fifteen twenty minute highlight videos online and CNN is being so punitive when it comes to copy right. We will just be doing my thoughts on it and you know: try.
At the clips later widely available online? So let's talk about that first thing I mentioned once again debates with twelve people on the stage aren't good. That was again confirmed last night and I don't want to belabor this, but yet again
as if we didn't know you don't really get a chance for much depth when you have twelve people on stage, unless you just straight up, ignore some of them for long periods of time, which actually did also happened yesterday, which is logical in this sense, in that you know, there's a big conversation right now on health care for
example between the Bernie Warren View and the Biden View which is different, but then also within Bernie Warren, because their positions are also different, and that was a topic will talk about and for a while everybody else was just sort of ignored. So it's like. I get why they're doing that, but at the same time we should just have fewer people on the stage. That's what would really make the most sense now important going in, especially as we get this far into the primer.
Where the positions of the candidates are really mostly known, they may not be known to every voter, but there aren't really secrets where candidates have not yet told us their positions on certain issues. It's important to understand. The can't
text is one where debates rarely move polling in any significant way, and when
They do it's often not permanent. If it's up
Unless you really mess up, in which case you could do permanent damage to yourself and that's been the theme for the first three debates. Example: first debate: the big kill shot that got a ton of attention
and play the next day was Kamala Harris going after Joe Biden. That was either the first or second debate. It got her. A spy
in the polling immediately, but then that eroded over the tent.
Eighteen days that followed and Kamel Harris went right back to where she was so the positive you know. Gotcha moments only seem to work in the short term with the Bates and then things regularize. Another example, Joe Biden, Joe Biden, has had terrible debate's, mostly his first and second, the third one. He was our brother. The first and third were not very good in the second one he actually did. Okay, he was just attacked even in irrational ways that made him look like a martyr, quite frankly, and and he ended up doing okay in that debate, Joe Biden has generally performed poorly and he
has had a permanent decline in the polls, zero again case in point. The debates tend not to permanently move polling very much unless you do poorly. So what I was interested in watching was going to be number one. Does Bernie Sanders go after Elizabeth Warren? We talked about the mathematical complexities of how does Bernie get back into the running for being in first place. He's now pretty significantly behind both Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden and the complexities. Mathematically are that the people that Bernie could attack both Biden and war and their supporters prefer, in other words, Biden supporters prefer Warren over Bernie and Warren supporters prefer Biden over Bernie. So by attacking them, it's not clear that Bernie actually helps himself. So this was a question
does Bernie go after Warren and we'll talk about that, I tweeted yesterday that he likely, wouldn't I said that the more likely scenario was that Bernie would draw some mild distinctions from Warren, but that nothing would really change, and this is basically how it went and will get more into that moment.
Early. Another element I was watching for does Joe Biden seem more Energi
sized, not an analysis of his policy, but does he seem this shrunken slow down Biden, or does he seem more energized
he was more energized to some degree last night compared to his just terrible prior performances is unclear that it will change very much Elizabeth Warren, who now has almost co frontrunner status with bite
was definitely more of a target, a number of people on stage going after her the focus of more attacks and disagreements which will get to you. She weathered some of them: okay, less well with others, including questions around healthcare and I'll. Get to that a we also wanted to pay attention to. How do other candidates go after or not go after Biden on the Hunter Biden? Stuff right? Even if you don't believe the conspiracy theory that is being parroted by Trump and the people around him regarding Joe Biden and Ukraine and that's all it is a conspiracy theory without evidence, you can still be critical of that fifty thousand dollar a month consulting position that
Hunter Biden had with the ukrainian Gas Company and there was a question as to how would the other candidates go after Biden? For that? The answer was not that much. There really wasn't that much discussion about it. Biden did get asked about it. His response was pretty pathetically wishy, washy and muddled and uninspiring, basically changing the subject and not really addressing it, and that was mostly that foreign policy foreign policy has been a weak point, not just in the debates, but it's a weak point
for many of the candidates. Who don't really demonstrate? I don't want to say they don't have the knowledge because they may have it somewhere in there, but they have not demonstrated deep knowledge on foreign policy
Does anyone actually propose prescriptions on foreign policy instead of justice criticizing Trump? There wasn't that much. The most discussed foreign policy topic yesterday was Syria and the Kurds. Understandably, almost everybody on the stage was against the haphazard withdrawal, or at least the way that Trump did it. They were opposed to Tulsi Gabbert sort of waffled on it. We know that this is
our position. She took a position that the entire problem is not trump withdrawing its regime change wars, an endless wars which is uh.
Major problem with american foreign policy, but it's myopic and simplistic when it comes to this particular issue as well. But that's been heard talking point on most foreign policy issues, she's steak that out there's a slice of the left that likes it and right now it's gotten her zero point. Eight percent support from democratic primary voters
other than that either disagreement with the way the withdraw was done or with the with drawl period. The other candidates did take the opportunity to distance themselves from Tulsi Gabbert's position. Pete budaj edge version, for example, said that she's just straight up wrong about it, but it was a relatively small part of the debate. The first question: they made the right decision because there were twelve people on stage to skip opening statements which I loved. They made the wrong decision to open the debate with a question about what do you think
about impeachment, which was a complete waste of time, basically everybody's for impeachment Tulsi Gabbert, not really for it PETE Buddha jet.
A little worried about what the consequences may be, but we knew that nothing useful was learned from that question. It took up about twenty minutes or more, it
I did an opportunity for some of the candidates to grandstand and it was really really lame. Speaking of lame and cringeworthy billionaire Tom Stier, who effectively bought his way into the debate, was Totale cringeworthy his first opportunity to speak
he tried. He went directly to an applause line where the audience of course has been told, basically to shut the F up and not make noise, and very few people reacted, and it was just downhill from there for Tom Steyer contributing nothing. His presence was totally superfluous in every way and, unfortunately, I believe he's qualified for the
fifth debate. Elizabeth Warren had a particularly weak moment last night and it was when she
answering the question: will taxes go up under your health care plan? I don't want to repeat myself again and again and again, but I've already addressed many times a variety of ways in which candidates could answer this question and she unfortunately repeated some of the same talking points multiple times,
it's, including some version of I will not sign a bill into law that doesn't lower costs for middle class families. Sort of a strange double neck
and really the answer is mean. Listen, we know what the answer is. You have total health care costs. Taxes are a component of a single payer plan, but in total cost will go down
he actually handled this pretty well. Yesterday. Bernie has also totally missed the mark on this question. Bernie said in clear terms: total cost will go down. You get rid of copays, you get rid of premiums, you get rid of co insurance. All of that stuff, you add
a payroll tax. It will be mostly, it will be disproportionately increased for corporations and for the rich
mostly everybody will pay a little bit, but your total cost will go down. It's the truth and it's a perfectly
reasonable way to do it, because people's costs aren't zero. Now now there's some conflict about the math of that statement in terms of some of the claims Bernie has made, and that's ok
figuring it out, but in the end, Bernie message that way better last night
and Elizabeth Warren fell short and she was vulnerable as a result of it
all candidates saying why can't you just answer the question not her best moment. Last night it was overall a pretty good performance, Andrew Yanks entry and performance. Andrew gangs. Followers have been tweeting to me, saying, Andrea and destroyed
he's about to break into the top three. Now I didn't really see it that way. Andrew Yang did go after Elizabeth Warren or not adopting his thousand dollar a month. Universal basic income propose
so she said. Well, I want to increase social security payments. It was a nice attempt by Andrew Yang to get some facetime with the presumptive co frontrunner. At this point, Elizabeth Warren, I don't think it's going to make much of an impression or impact polling, Bernie's health.
Of course, having a heart attack couple of weeks ago. Bernie handled it as well as you can, while standing up on a stage and claiming that you're fine, his voice and his energy seemed
basically back to normal. So that was good. I don't think he did any damage to himself when that topic came up. O'connell Harris brought another one of her gotcha attempts. When she,
Elizabeth Warren. Will you join me in calling for Trump to be banned on twitter and
and said: no, and it was sort of
I climactic gotcha moment Harris tried to be shocked. No, you won't, but it was a pretty weak gotcha attempt there is way. Bigger fish to fry and Kamel. Harris is effectively done unless, like in the next month, she can double her support from in a five percent to ten percent. The last question of the night was also throw away. Tell us about a surprising
friendship that you have with someone real waste of time, and I know some people in my audience will say no no
here's. Why that was actually an interesting question. It was a waste of time. I want to hear about policy
overall takeaways. Another dog and pony show components big part of it. Relatively few new policy details were discussed. I don't expect any big changes in polling
except Bernie. Looking generally healthy might help him recover a little bit of what he's lost in the last couple of weeks, Biden seeming slight
the higher energy. Maybe will help him recover a little bit as
well, no one really failed, but the people that are pulling one to two percent. I don't see that there
going to be doing any better. As a result of this debate, Bernie did pretty well with the questions he was given Biden
again. Given that Biden is the sort of slow down Biden, he did pretty well, given the questions he was given. Although he fumbled when he was asked about the Hunter Biden thing. Obviously, Biden supporters won't like the content of what Bernie said. Bernie supporters won't like the content of what Biden said, but they both did well enough to not do Dan
edge the candidates, I thought overall sounded more rehearsed
less genuine than in prior debates, as if they're now being guided more by polling and calculated politics
Sadly, although very often that's where it gets too at this point in the race bottom Line- is that we can't keep having twelve people on the stage. It's just terrible. I mean what does Amy Clover char think about impeachment. What does Houliang Castro think about Syria or what? Why is Tulsi Gabbert, not fully behind impeachment? I mean it's like who cares right? They have no chance and I want to get into depth with the people that do have a shot. A fifth debate is on November 20th. The new qualification requirements are three
sent in four or more approved polls or five percent in two or more early primary state polls and one hundred and sixty
thousand donations now as of right now, we are like a full month out from that next debate. There are all
Thirty eight people qualified for that debate, so we may end up again with ten people just not conducive to good conversation. Right now, the people qualified for debate number 5R Biden Sanders Warren
Harris Buddha Judge Tom Steyer, again Andrew Yang and Cory Booker, so we already are going to have eight people on stage last thing. I continue to be generally concerned about the idolatry of politicians. It's not just tulsi and you
There are Bernie Idolaters Warren
idolaters from the tweets that I
getting when I ask for feedback about debates or polling or whatever, on twitter people, just as effusive about some of these candidates, as if these are saviors or near deities, and my position is politicians just aren't the best period. These aren't
I would argue even the types of people that we should be idolizing and without commenting on any specific politicians. I would just want to see sort
or measured analyses than the gushing praise of pseudo deities that I'm seeing on twitter about certain candidates. That's just me, I just don't see politicians in the same light. Maybe it's because I do this show and I've met a lot of these people, and it's like these are just in perfect people with many flaws, and sometimes they have good ideas on a few issues. But I want to hear from you about that. I want to hear from you about the debate. If you're watching on you to please leave a
sponse down below or send me a tweet at deep Hackman. I do want to hear from you make sure
following me on Twitter, we will take a quick break and be back with all the day's news,
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What is today's longtime sustaining member of the day Justin? Thank you for nearly five years of membership. I truly appreciate it. It is time for Hatriot mail. What is Hatriot mail? This is
create mail, Ein, Rand and Ronald Reagan had a baby, and
Michael that child of that eat of Liberty
cries, would sound a little something like Patriot Man, written by patriots who hate David Packman, because America and because freedom, alright, this weeks, Hatriot mail
it's sort of a linguistic misunderstanding
sorts. I guess Maybe- or maybe it's just plain old anti Semitism take a listen jeez,
There's Christ dude Hillary's, not coming back. It's been almost three years. She loste
who won David
Maine? Is such a fool and flop and sore loser? What a path
make loser pop out your tinfoil hats, folks, pack menisco
sing full Riri an park. Man is a wait for it, uh
We cannot see yet. This
something you see many times- there's people who see Ashkenazi
and see that in there the word Nazi is in there like national socialist from the third Reich, and they say, there's just like a miss.
Standing about the etymology of these words. I believe that the word Ashkenazi goes back to
The grandson of I believe it's a in the old testament. One of the sons of Noah
something like that. I mean I don't really know too much about the Bible, but there's like some word that that comes from
and then not see is, I believe, a contraction for national socialist, and I think that it's just a coincidence. I don't know that there's anything more to Ashkenazi can
meaning Aci unless I'm misinformed, but in any case I'm not sure that this hate
It was really doing a linguistic analysis. I think it was just old fashioned anti Semitism, but what you can do to fight hatred. Schism in your community is to use the coupon code. Patriot, forty, when you sign up for a membership at Join PAC man, dot com that could
find code saves you, forty percent, and it says no, no, no to the hatred. It's they will not succeed. The spelling of the coupon code is H. A t r. I o t four zero. It really pains me to say this
but ISIS is on the verge of experiencing a revival, and this is not the type of news that maybe we expected
I have to bring you even as recently as six months ago, and it is all thanks to Donald Trump's recent decision to pull
oops from northern Syria, and it is an absolute unmitigated disaster. The french Prime Minister
now says that the re emergence of ISIS is inevitable. Saying quote, this is devastating for our security, with the inevitable resurgence of islamic state in northeastern Syria and probably also Nw Iraq, and so the destabilization of a government that doesn't need that that's Edward Philippe, the french Prime Minister, yesterday
you talking about well, as I told you yesterday, thanks to Donald Trump's decision to bail in northern Syria, hundreds
The relatives of ISIS members escaped from Kurdish held camps, Donald Trump reacting by claiming that it is that
Kurds are deliberately releasing ISIS associated people in order to draw the United States back into the region. Now that's a conspiracy theory,
with absolutely no evidence supporting it in case you
immediately realize that there's no evidence for Donald Trump's claim whatsoever, and once again, we very quickly have a coalition that is building, and it is a coalition on which the United States is on the wrong,
Trump bailing in Syria, is an opening to Turkey to absolutely slaughter the Kurds which they're doing which they
started doing within hours of Donald Trump's pullback other countries
involving many of our historical democratic allies are uniting against Turkey. France, ITALY, Germany, Finland, Sweden, all stopping weapons sales to Turkey immediately. The united
Adam, considering similar action, and meanwhile Donald Trump has gotten out of the way of Turkey, so that Turkey can do untold levels of violence against the Kurds, which they did as soon as Donald Trump gave them that opportunity last week, Donald Trump is undoing the fight against ISIS after bragging, for
two years that he took ISIS out now. If we want to speculate about the underlying reasons for Trump doing this last night on my live stream, which was prematurely ended by the way, I was asked about some of the
Motivations for why Donald Trump took this action
there's a wide, ranging list of possibilities? What we do know is that Donald Trump made this decision to pull troops from northern Syria, despite it not
recommended by anyone who was in the know. His generals, as Donald Trump likes to say, did not recommend this decision. This action, the State Department, did not recommend pulling.
From northern Syria. So it leaves us to wonder any reasonable person would say well if none of the experts are recommending trump.
This. Why did he do it and then we start to speculate. Does
have something so bad on the killing of Jamal Khashoggi that if it were to get out
It would be even more devastating that Donald Trump didn't do a damn thing about it: instead selling more weapons to Saudi Arabia, to possibility is it
once again, Donald Trump lining up with what Putin wants Putin. Of course, a supporter of Dictator Bashar, Al Assad in Syria, who is of course on the opposite side of the Kurds who now are being slaughtered by the the turkish turkish forces. That's a possibility. Could it have been motivated by trying to
prevent Hooton from releasing. You know some compromising materials that he might have on Donald Trump. That's merely a speculative thing. We also have seen no evidence that Donald Trump is capable of feeling shame. So the possibility of shame, maybe, is not the best explanation
for why Donald Trump might do what he did. Is it merely financial, as is often the case, with Donald Trump Trump, of course, having his hotel in Turkey? There's financial
pro quo? Maybe involving the turkish government and Trump does this in exchange? For I don't know Turkey letting him keep his trump
our open there were speculating. What we know is that the action makes no sense and we've got no sue.
Table explanation for why Donald Trump has done this. I again lean more towards the financial, rather
then to prevent embarrassing stuff from being released because I've not seen evidence that Donald Trump is truly capable of feeling shame. We've seen him get
the angry when he feels that someone has been disloyal
A normal person would also feel ashamed by some of the stuff that has gone on, but for Trump it seems to be mostly anger. I don't know the answer. What do you think is behind this? If you
thing on Youtube leave a comment giving me your idea, otherwise, send me a tweet at the PAC man and, of course, of course,
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Welcome back to the David Pakman show, so the Trump tax documents are starting to filter out and it's instantly terrible for Donald Trump instantly evidence of financial fraud that we believed for years was exactly what tax documents would reveal now. This is now
Donald Trump's tax returns. I know that there are people who may be misunderstood the headlines around this. This is not Trump's tax returns. Pro Publica has obtained some Donald Trump tax.
Documents and they show exactly what we predicted for a long time, which is that Donald Trump is playing very fast and loose
with the value of assets and profitability that he claims,
depending on whether he's trying to impress a lender or avoid taxation. Specifically, pro Publica has documents that relate
to the relief of I believe it's for Manhattan buildings that Donald Trump owns and they obtained these documents, their freedom of information, act requests and the documents were provided because these documents were made public because Trump up
yield his property tax bill for the buildings in question every year for, in some cases, nine years in a row, and so what pro Publica was able to do very solid investigation was take the tax record.
And compare them with loan records that Donald Trump
under ladder capital made public when they sold the debt, but this isn't just Jan
Ali saying to a lender. Oh my buildings worth fifty million and then
the I, the IRS, the buildings only worth twenty five million. That is something I'm sure. Donald Trump is doing, and Michael Cohen told us that that's what Donald
is doing, but this is actually more Donald. Trump is actually lying about how much rent the buildings are taking in, which is a much more calculated and specific type of lie. Some might call it fraud and, in fact, in a
of real estate. Professionals are calling it exactly that so here's one example, Donald Trump told his lender- that the buildings earned
ice much rent that one building earns twice as much rent as what he told tax authorities in the same year. In twenty seventeen. Ok, both
can't be true. Those are lies. This is financial fraud, another example Trump's building at forty Wall Street, I would walk
by this building everyday, because our David Packman show Studios New York City were like a block from Trump's building at forty Wall Street I'd walk by it every day
Trump told a lender that forty Wall Street went from being fifty nine percent least to ninety five percent leased in a period of a few years?
but then around the same time that he was telling the lender it was fifty nine percent least he told tax officials.
That the building was eighty one percent least now we're still trying to figure out what the advantage to doing that is. There may be disincentives to have empty build
things, although I need to research a little more about New York City tenant.
Lord LAW and restrictions and provisions, but whatever the impetus was, it doesn't make sense and that's what
immediately revealed by these documents. Sometimes the exact motivation for the discrepancies is not completely clear. Does he want a stronger position
to receive money from a lender, does he want to minimize tax liability from the from the from the government, the state government of New York? But in other cases it's not totally clear what the impetus is for each? Why? But pro Publica went with everything that they uncovered to a dozen real estate professionals,
and the real estate professionals were basically unanimous in their assessment number one. There is no clear explanation for this, but two these discrepancies are- and this is a quote versions of fraud, which would not be a surprise to anybody who's been following this now this type of fraud
can lead to criminal charges, it's very unlikely that it will, because nothing has been sticking to Donald Trump, but note that Trump's former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, and
as former campaign Chairman Paul man, a fort, are in prison in part for falsifying tax and bank records, some of which relate to real estate, all in the service of at least when it comes to Michael Cole and Donald Trump. So this is very serious, stuff, big picture. The big picture is that this is a call
double bookkeeping. Fraudsters typically do this: they maintain one set of books, that's the set. You show certain entities,
and there's another set of books. That is either your private set of books or the one that you keep on hand to show other regulatory entities.
Depending on what is most advantageous at the time, really
solid investigation by Propublica and under that I mean look. You look at just a few
buildings, and it's immediately clear that something isn't right. This is just for buildings that they looked at. Imagine if we were able to actually get Donald Trump's tax returns, what might be in there. His voters might not care sure, but it would be an absolute treasure trove. It's almost like Trump knows that his tax returns going public would be absolutely terrible forum and possibly implicate
in crimes, so he's going completely out of his way to do everything you can to prevent their release exactly as we've been saying for years back all the way since before he even started the general election debates against Hillary Clinton in the twenty sixteen campaign, will we ever see the tax returns? I don't know, I don't know
but I hope that we do. There have been some genuinely bad numbers for Donald Trump. Since the Ukraine fiasco,
started, but we may have gotten the worst one yet yesterday, and it is that North Carolina Republicans are bailing on Trump
since the Ukraine scandal in the impeachment inquiry started understand that
last nine of ten presidential elections. North Carolina has been strongly,
public and there is a new Meredith pole- were Trump's North Carolina approval is down to thirty nine point. Nine percent. Now you might
let me say, thirty nine point: nine percent and you would correctly say David that doesn't sound
that low because NASH,
only Donald Trump has been sort of hovering between thirty seven and forty three for his entire presidency. Thirty nine point: nine doesn't seem like a big deal, but understand that this is specifically North Carolina, Trump's Republican
in north. Carolina is down by more than thirteen percent from eighty six to seventy. Four, not thirteen percentage points down twelve percentage points, which is thirteen percent
Please don't email me about the math confusion that sometimes happens. North Carolina is the prototypical.
Center right, but solidly republican state
could be a bellwether in two thousand and twenty you go back to nineteen. Eighty N Carolina has gone to the Republican in the presidential election. Every single time, except
in two thousand and eight when Barack Obama won it. It was very close in twenty sixteen trump defeat.
Hillary in North Carolina by only three and a half percentage points in twenty. Sixteen,
they're already wasn't much of a margin for error for Trump in North Carolina in twenty sixteen. So when you see his support, among Republicans dropping in the
and driving down the overall approval rating for Trump in North Carolina. You quickly realize
that if these numbers don't turn around, it does not bode particularly well for Donald Trump. So here's my outlook for the twenty twenty electoral college, because we often dig into the polls
We don't necessarily zoom out and look at what it might mean. Bigger picture. Donald Trump has been incorrectly touting that in twenty sixteen he had some massive record setting. Alec total college, when he did
but Trump in some other acolytes are starting to talk about hey. You know what we might win forty, we might win forty two states or more in twenty twenty now
sounds crazy and it probably is but there's another side to that coin. If you look back at two thousand and sixteen
one, I believe it's thirty states, lots of those states were razor thin margins and Trump still lost the popular vote by
three million votes. Pennsylvania was the zero point, seven percent margin a Florida was a one point. Two percent margin. Michigan was a zero point. Three percent margin Wiscconsin was a zero point. Seven percent Margin North Carolina. As I told you was about three one slash two percentage points. This could go the exact opposite way in twenty twenty,
the delta, meaning the shift from twenty. Sixteen need only be very small for that to happen. A few percentage point shift in approval away from Trump in a handful, or even two or three of these key states such that some Republicans decide to vote third party
some Republicans vote for a Democrat. You don't even need that many to do that. Some Republicans choose to just stay home that could flip three four or five states easilly as a starting point. But once again, we
can't control that we need to work on. What can we control, which is our turn out? If Republicans help us along because they either choose to stay home or some will vote for a Democrat or some of them will vote third party
the better. It just helps the numbers, but when you see these numbers in North Carolina and you go back to twenty sixteen-
when you look at the razor thin margins in some states, if Donald Trump cannot make
contain, or regain some of this republican approval in these key states. It is trouble for him, but it is only trouble if we get out and vote and I apologize. I know I'm a broken record on this, but
All of this analysis does not matter if our side doesn't come out and vote, that's just the math of it and that's why
important to understand that, even with low approval rating, if we don't vote, Donald Trump can still get himself reelected send your thoughts a we are on Facebook. At Facebook, dot com, Slash David Pakman, show we will
take a quick break. We do need to address
a lot of you emailed me and that you said I wouldn't talk about it, but I'm going to Elizabeth Warren has a toxic racist, homophobic surrogate I talked about, burn
toxic surrogate I'm going to talk a little bit about Elizabeth Warrens right after the break.
David Pakman show at Davidpakman dot com, the David Pakman show is audience supported, media and you can contribute,
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listen to the podcast watch on Youtube or watch us on tv or even listen on the radio patris on dot com, Slash David
show the David Pakman show David Pakman dot com- alright, listen, let's not mince words. Elizabeth Warren has a totally toxic surrogate with a racist and homophobic tweet in her past. I'm going to talk about this right now, I'm going to give you the full story, but before I get into that several dozen of you beautifully nice people emailed me about this over the last twenty four hours, the gist of the emails was David. You covered Bernie's toxic surrogate Linda SAR Sewer, but you won't cover a
Is it warrants equally toxic surrogate because you're, a war and she'll or an establishment centrist
or a war in tool or whatever? No, no. No! No. No, I covered
Our sewer, because she is a toxic person and no
Cratic candidate should have some
like her as a surrogate which Bernie does my coverage was not partisan. It was not for or against any candidate. I want
House clean, no matter who we're what we're talking about,
in the same way, I'd be a hypocrite. If I didn't cover a toxic Warren surrogate, we need our conscience is clean. We need
clean our house is so today I'm going to tell you about Ashley Marie Preston. Preston is a Warren campaign. Surrogate she is appeared on many shows as a surrogate, including over a
their friends at the young Turks she's in a war in campaign ad that was released five or six days ago and Preston has a disgusting, twitter, history of racism and homophobia,
I am not going to mitigate it in any way. Some items from her past quotes
latino and asian businesses need to stop being rude and f being disrespectful, and I know it's a lot to ask, but in California speak F being English. This is the type of thing we hear all the time.
From the disgusting people on the right and we did now sit, and we have to denounce it here- the identity of Ashley Marie pressed and is not a mitigating factor in that this is absolutely disgusting. Depraved speech, another example from a warrant surrogate Ashley, Marie Prestin quote: I love gay men, but this county clerk at windowed.
Is an m effing bag with it? I could go on, but I won't now. There are
when the identity politics sliver of the left, who have come to defend
Ashley Marie Preston on the basis of different identity boxes that she checks. For example, Preston is transgender, and thus we need to understand something about
her treatment by society about her experience that makes this somehow more okay or not as bad or as a black person Preston has been treated,
poorly by the way that society no guys, know. Okay, we can't defend this. She has no place in any democratic,
pain, no matter what her identity is. Now there are people choosing to make the story about TYT I believe TYT has put.
Statement. The bottom line is that, from what I've seen of this surrogate's appearances on T Y T, T Y T identified press than as a Warren surrogate. When she would comment, I don't know much else about what
White should be doing in terms of checking the twitter histories of everyone. My guess is. Preston may
he is not going to be back on T Y T, but I could be wrong, but the important thing is that if the argument is T Y T was wrong to have
her on. I would want to understand why, because people associated with campaigns do shows all the time and as far as I know, she was identified as a surrogate
the argument is TYT was short sighted because they didn't do their due diligence about the things in Ashley, Marie Preston's, past okay, but
then the campaign who had her as a surrogate is ten times more wrong for not doing their due diligence since there she's, actually a surrogate of the campaign,
appearing on TYT, but the bottom line is I'm not a hypocrite. Linda Sarsour is toxic and Bernie should have no affiliation with her Ashley. Marie Preston is toxic and Warren should have no affiliation with her there's no place for this.
Okay, I got a few emails from Warren supporters. Saying David. I think this is horrible
contacting the war in campaign and saying Preston must be removed as a surrogate great I'm an equal,
the person on this, I'm not affiliated with any campaign. Bernie should get rid of Linda Sarsour as a surrogate Warren should get rid of Ashley Marie Preston. As
Aerogate. We shouldn't even be wasting time arguing about this. This is one hundred percent cotton dry. There are too many problems that need to be solved. There are too many issues that need to be discussed. We need to sort out how does Bernie's Hell
our policy compared to that of Elizabeth Warren. What will each cost? How will each be implemented? What we'll each cover, but all of this stuff right? We can't be distracted with toxic surrogate's with absolutely vile disgusting, homophobic and racist comments in their twitter histories. This is a disservice to Elizabeth Warren Linda STAR sewer. It does a disservice to Bernie Sanders, they should be gone and we should be focusing on the issues period and for everybody who said I wouldn't talk about this, because I'm some kind of Warren Chill are. I think, I'm being a pretty unequivocal in my comments here today. There is a fascinating audio recording that has been.
Leaked in which a prominent Republican is caught, saying that Donald Trump is quote killing us, meaning killing, not even necessarily Republicans, but even some trumpian Republicans in important local races, and this is a riveting peek behind the curtain in the chaos.
Of the Republican Party under Donald Trump, the Texas Republican House, Speaker, Dennis
running is on a radio on an audio recording rather asking for help out
members of his own republican Party in two thousand and twenty he's on record,
Bing calling a female lawmaker vile and saying that Donald Trump is quote killing us now. Democrats have filed the lawsuit that accuses bonding of breaking campaign, finance laws who isn't breaking campaign finance laws these days right, and there is also a state pro
into allegations of corruption. This meeting was secretly recorded by the ceo of a group called empower Texans, which is a far right group
who is CEO, Michael Quinn, Sullivan, said the.
And I recorded it was to protect myself, which is also a very interesting detail in all of this, and this is all happening because Republicans are at risk of losing control of the Texas House. As you probably know, if you follow politics, Texas is a historically
conservative state, although there have been shades of purple more and more recently, particularly in some areas, areas, but regardless Republicans have controlled the Texas House for almost two decades.
Now Republicans are in a position where they could lose control of the house if they lose nine seats to Democrats in two twenty many republic
they're, panicking and bonding is blaming Donald Trump. He says
recording with all due respect to Trump who I love, he's killing us in urban, suburban
districts. Now this warrant, some thought. Is it true that Donald Trump is killing them
the answer is very regional. It may
will be there in Texas in urban and suburban districts. Trump is hurting the brand of Republicans that Bonnin,
a part of in some parts of the country. It's not that clear. Although increasingly
including in North Carolina, which will we've already dealt with on today's show. Trump is certainly not helping. Ultimately, if Trump destroys the Republican Party, as we know it, or at least seriously hurts it for a decade, it is their fault they voted for him. They are choosing this rope to hang themselves with. If, ultimately, it is what they hang themselves with, but it's up to us to make it happen, and I've talked about that already there
other thing to point out: Dennis Bonnen and the contingent in Texas that is trying to get other Republicans removed from office. This is an extreme group of Republicans, Dennis Bonnen loves Trump, but he claims to recognize that Donald Trump is hurting them. What Dennis Bonnen and who
cronies are trying to do is remove what are some of the more moderate Texas Republicans and replace them
with unhinged trumpian lunatics, he merely
recognizes or at least believes that Donald Trump is hurting their cause. To do that, we should not mistake this for Bob.
Being the moderate
bonding, is an absolute maniac and in the end we get to the same place as nationally on this issue. If we vote, we can do good things
we vote nationally in November of twenty twenty, we can remove from
we have the numbers, it's a question of how many of those numbers will turn up at the ballot box. If Texan Democrats vote, they can potentially flip Texas Blue, which would be an accomplishment of stunning historic proportions if we don't vote if they, if you Texas Democrats, don't vote then
everything stays the same or potentially get even worse, and in the end I mean it's like you know, when you have an election with so many different factors,
russian meddling problems with
Bing Machines, social media campaigns and ECHO chambers, right wing media, perpetuating the feedback loops.
Through algorithmic echo chambers, all of the stuff we've talked about it is really Hillary. Not going
Wisconsin in the last days of the race, when you have elections that hinge on
one hundred thousand votes in three states? It's very hard to say this is the one thing that decided the results,
because there are so many other things that could have changed them.
The one part that is completely clear is that if voter turn out wasn't fifty percent, if the left just got out and voted in droves, the
answer is none of those little things matter, none of those medium sized things matter, because we just have the numbers now, of course the opposite is true. If we don't vote and the
is able to invigorate their base and get out and vote. We don't stand a chance and that's why, ultimately, you can point to me:
a point to blame whatever you want for two thousand and sixteen up in a pragmatic sense, hill
not campaigning correctly towards the end russian meddling, fear of losing status race
blame anything you want, but no that we can over. We can outdo the impact of all of those elements by increasing voter turnout, which sounds like it should be easy to do
and it never quite works out. Unfortunately, we have a voicemail number. That number is two thousand one hundred and ninety two David P. This, I think, is
going to be? The final word on distractions, on the program. Take a listen to this: hey David, Prince in Jersey City, calling it said, quick question for you. You know we've heard about the Bernie Sanders distraction. We know all about the producer pad distraction. Last week we were hit over the head with an emergency appendectomy distraction. My question is: are all these distractions just a distraction right thanks
You know in a sense they are, and I feel as though, unfortunately we have all become so distracted by identifying into judicata ing varying degrees of distractions that I want to put an end to this, that the just
and let it be known right now. There will be
no more distractions, including the discussions of such distractions. I'm closing the book on it. We've got a great bonus
for you today, NATO's stoltenberg is defending the NATO stands on Turkey.
Offensive in Syria. What is that stands and what are the implications were going to dig into that on today's bonus show, because, by request there has been more policy discussion requested for the bonus show number.
There is a one year old girl who has died after being left in a car all day, tragic horrible. Every time we hear about one of these stories. This is the 50th hot car death in twenty nineteen, and I want to discuss what is behind this and there's actually a sort of
macabre Tien that, oh, I won't. I won't spoil it now, but there's something I want to discuss on the bonus show related to that. We will also talk about
incoming or possibly already made endorsements of Bernie Sanders candidacy in twenty twenty
hi Ilan Omar,
Sandra across the Cortez and a maybe Rishi to to leave. We will talk about those endorsements and endorsements more generally on the bonus show. It is a jam packed but
this show I will also have news about the vague ISS conference of next week. It's not the most exciting news on four.
Don't, but maybe some people will like it, and I will update you on the progress of the membership drive that we have been doing over the last five days. All of that stuff and much more on today's bonus show get instant
as two ways number one become a member by signing up at joint Ackman com number two become a patron by pledging at least five dollars a month at page,
beyond dot com, David Pakman, show the David Pakman show at Davidpakman dot com
Transcript generated on 2019-11-04.