Welcome to the commentary magazine punk has today is Thursday December Nineteen, I'm John Paul towards the editor of commentary with me, as always senior editor, a green wild high aid. I dont associate ever know rough Mannheim, Ella hijacked Christine Rosen is off today, so we will jump in with nothing's going on together. We'll talk about, but will we we will? We will endeavour to say something about Nancy Pillars. This morning following yesterday's hearing in front of the House Sherry Committee, and now

saying that she is directing the chairman of the various committees with interest in this matter, I believe, being. Has intelligence committee, the House, judiciary, committee and has Oversight committee to draft articles of impeachment first I just want to say, since when does the speaker of the House Direct chairman to do things like this is a new understanding of. The organization I yourself, the speaker of the house, has a lot of power in the House of Representatives, but Many farmers was to have some autonomy, so they now we're pretend they now the preacher she's gone. Basically, she is the dictator of the house and she is directing them to do whatever fine, so that I think this was important on her part, because Republicans all day yesterday, very, I think effectively, if you actually care about whether the needle could be moved or not moved by what was going on in a these hearings. Cap

citing things that she said about how was really important for the house to out of impeachment only if there was real movement among the american people toward impeachment. Of course, the story of the last month is that the actual move toward impeachment has not only not move the needle, but It appears there is a kind of totally paralytic state, I swear you now. Basically, the attitude that you came in with when process started is where you are now there are being there with you. Deep Paul analyses can see four or five point shifts in the number of persuadable Republicans. The twelve percent of Republicans were persuadable might be moving and all that. But that's all you know fractions of fraction, so it's not happening basically and so there,

using her Quote- Nobbler- had a quote pretty similar, the chairman that has Judiciary Committee, Jerry Mather saying you really need to see the country move before you, wanna do and the country is moving and many guess it moved. What is it ten points the reserve a ten point. Movement initially, initially, when the Ukraine stuff started coming out right, there was a kind of ten point shift. If he's was in the high thirties and then rose to the high forties, but it has basically that's where it is and so social matters as they are more people favour impeachment now than did before throughout Martin started pulling this in March, at least the average have from five thirty eight started pulling in March. The Mulder report came out, didn't move the needle the more hearings and move the needle more people favoured opposed impeachment than favorite. Page meant the Ukraine stuff came out and flipped and it has stayed flipped, there's not a giant origin, but always outside

any sort of margin of error. Minimally wording on bye, bye flow because it's being already more closed impeachment right, then a favorite it until the Ukraine revelation occur, at which point the dynamic flipped and more people favorite impeachment than opposed it. Has remained stable. Okay with em. I am. I am crazy, but I thought that the average is basically daddy now, and now I mean firmly to study, was a brief moment where a sort of reverted to the mean, but then it bounced back. Ok, I'm so there. What's the point is there was real movement? However, I dont think you can say that there has been a national shift towards impeachment, Ok, so we got you write. So no, it is showing me the five thirty eight average is forty seven point. Eight percent support forty four percent upon

so but rather Mahler stuff. Nobody thought that was impenetrable, thanks a lot of sense, forget because our societies, the Mahler stuff yesterday, ok, where we will but will get into that a minutes. Ok, so so the point is that this is basically where it's been four months of the the hearings, the intelligence committee hearings and obviously we don't have any Paul data on what happened yesterday, which was basically for law professors talking about impeachment in front of ay. I thought kind of impressive house traditionary. Panel, both Republicans and Democrats acquitted themselves. I think far better than the House Intelligence Committee did, which was the whole point of this proceeding was supposedly that it was put into Adam shifts? Hands at the house has intelligence, because he would do this better than Needler based on some disastrous

Hearings involving Corey Lewandowski couple months ago, but this hearing, was actually better. I thought better conducted more interesting, obviously that with no ifs or fat gathering, where there wasn't a house intelligence with all the officials, but damn that maybe a blunder on Nancy policies, part to give the hearings to a fragmented to two meddler who actually see strikes me not only as a fairer person but hoo hoo, bays and attitude of being a fairer than that then shift. Does I'm late less would be less sticky to say that now there was like an extreme partisan screwing around with things than with now there ain't nothin Thus, I think any of this matters because clearly the nation has hit its polarized stat stasis, where yes or so, and so on,

by and by a small, by a margin, those outside the margin of error, but just barely the nations supports impeachment as opposed to oppose this, but by force It's an remember. Removal require they, two thirds of out of the Senate, So what you want, if you're, actually approach impeachment as something like tooth said: the american people supporting impeachment like that supporting removal like that, that would be, would be rational to go ahead with a removal process. If you had any realistic hope that the Americans we would go along with it, therefore push push partisans who work, who were dead set on opposing it was wet with numbers during the Clinton impeachment now, when they were that bad, like sixty

percent disfavour engagement, but I mean that that's what's interesting. You see where, where we have an eerie with echo of the cliff impeachment, is the data. The pull at the Our political data said to Republicans: don't do this, don't do this you're not to do it and they did it anyway now. You can say that in the long run it was politically successful, in the sense that Al Gore was not elected president right, so he suffered the ravages of Clinton's ill. You know were bad behaviour for two years and an election that should have been has by maybe by given that the condition of a country was run, sermon, money or moral election and granted.

Basically a tie, but but he lot you know he lost now. You could also say that he would have lost whether there was peach when or not because the country spent a year listening the Lewinsky matter, but aside from impeachment, so I was the obligation of the house to impeach him so that the centre would, you know almost unanimous I knew the minute that it happened to me and I was covering it at the time, writing columns and editorials. So they are posting all that- and you know it's not like you didn't know that the that there was no and held it. He was actually gonna be removed. Clear was gonna, be removed even with a Republican sat anyway. So

We have an earring back over that right, cuz. We know that absent a an earthquake somehow between now and a vote, to remove in the Senate after the House votes on articles of impeachment and send it to the Senate that that Trump will be acquitted by the Senate. So is this politically stupid? Is it politically stupid to impeach him. Nor what are you? What are you and I have no idea about myself? I have no idea. Oakland was also censured. No, it wasn't wasn't it. No, he was not. He was absolutely not wooden thereabout answer. Now there was no He was not censure Joe Liebermann Centre from Connecticut. That's right, ass,

thought to censure the centre refused to go down that path. Yeah, I mean that the conventional wisdom is that patron failed Republicans because of the ninety ninety midterms. They didn't have any impeachment process until after the mid terms, but it was looming in that's part of the reason why there was a backlash against Republicans, at least that was the conventional wisdom, its personnel. There was a backlash, but they didn't lose the house right. You know that that's funny part gang will Gingrich Nuke Gingrich lost, as he promised a landslide and they lost five seats or something like that, and you know he got muddied because of his the revelations of his own personal, blue, peccadilloes and then the m. So quit Alzheimer there had been an attempted coup against Gingrich by his own Byron,

publicans and ninety seven, because his manage and was so chaotic and disastrous of the house, and they tried to get him and they. And then, because he had turned out to be an effective steward of the ninety eight elections? He really had. No, no, he didn't have a leg to stand on any mark, as he had lost the confidence of the of the problems of the house. I don't think that will happen with Nancy Pelosi. Obviously I mean maybe it would happen after twenty I camera. What did she promised? oh see among the lit the liberals, Pelosi sort of essentially promised when There was going to be a revolt against her in the house and at the beginning of this year that she would imply- recently that she would not stay on indefinitely she was there would be a leadership race and twenty twenty two or so I can remember now, but there are some areas were going far

ok, so knowing you have no idea whether it will heart ape? What do you think? I think it's more like you to hurt the not hurt that the Democrats really ok. Why? Precisely because from the start that has been very little question about removal, so I think ultimately it is drawn out demonstration of a kind of impotence on on the Democrats. Part is impotence, some thing for which politicians are punished. In other words, if they do this because they think it's the right thing to do and they have constituents who are largely with them and the idea will be that trump survive because of you know Fox NEWS and his magical power of veto over the white Working class or something willed, democratic voters pump punish Democrats. This is all about

politics in the nature of this offences such that it deserves impeachment. In my view, ok you're talking about what they would be just as Bill Clinton deserved impeachment, even though it was politically disasters for in the view of revolutions of the time. But if it is politically damaging for Donald Trump, it will be because it prevents the president from making the twenty twenty race a referendum on the however, that is or girl and the President wants it to not be a referendum on his term in office, and if its of becomes a retrospective on Donald Trump and his handling of the presidency over the last three and a half years, then it's not gonna help him. Well, that's a complicated question right I mean first, we don't know what the conditions will be in the three four months for the election, which is theoretically.

We know how the public will judge wooden hint members. Aid has to be a distant memory. Ok, but you know what we don't know is: will it will the unemployment rate be where it is now which, as you know, it did fifty sixty year, historic glows right three point: six point: seven percent will stay there. We just had a revision of the of the GDP numbers that lifted them above two, which has not three but is still better than one point eight or whatever it was before that. So if the economy isn't weak, where is noticeably weaker than it should be, and the employment rates are good and in or around where they are now.

Ah will impeachment. Will it matter that he has been behaved in office now? I would soon ass. The answer is yes, it will not until electoral. Yes, if, if this, if the economy was going to boost this president staff, in the public eye. We see it. Well, maybe my our supply of ok so, if this maybe he's gateway and maybe he'd be a twenty five guys that imagine that economy, where there were seven percent unemployment em and of em growth, it like a pointer, appoint sure, there's more downside than he would be at thirty, and there is there is. There is more downside than up with perhaps seen the ceiling of the effect of a good economy on the presence, John Bruton, ready Well, let's put it this way. If I'm right- and you would be a thirty- the fact that he's at four thousand two hundred and forty three- that's that's a that's a pretty significant boost. You know something like given all the help at the press has been and all

of his problematic this behaviour, He'S- gotten as much benefit as you are likely to get out of a good economy? Maybe of that, That's my that would be. My resident does not want to be sure. No indication that, or his team show no indication that they want to run on the president's record, which is smart, says what Brok Obama did they want to render the other teen toxic right, which is just about. Every re election campaign really well landing. Ok, wait a bit, so so we know about real actions. Presidential approval. Ok, when couplet, as before the election in two thousand and four George W Bush hit fifty one percent and he got fifty one percent of the vote in Ah, two thousand and twelve Barack Obama hit fifty one percent. He got fifty

ten percent of the vote. This, as you know a week or two before the election Trump got elected with forty six percent because of the structure of where he got the vote, So let us presume that it is science fictional, particularly given impeachment everything he gets. Fifty one percent nonetheless he is going have to have a decent approval. Raven like if it's not if his approval rating is where it is now, forty three forty four percent: he cannot get reelected now Somebody pointed out that in the real clear politics average on this date in twenty eleven Obama and Trump or almost exactly the same numbers, forty three supporting fifty one percent opposing but Obama Obama rose and the question is: will impeachment make it impossible William

is. Does impeachment impose a ceiling on Trump that is, I don't, I don't prohibitive attacks with it. It doesn't mean hill rise, but I don't think it's it's prohibited because I think if it becomes especially at once, it's done and he's not removed if it becomes a sort of another incident to put in the same folder as the russian vested geishas. Think of how the public reacted during the rush investigation is supposed to what they think about it now far. Fewer people today are willing to say gab trap is a russian pawn and was involved in an escape. I think

once impede. The impeachment process becomes a kind of memory and in its without removal, if it becomes another well that they get there, can I keep trying to get him. It's not really he's not really as flagrant a problem as as we had thought the Obama comparisons are also flawed. He had lost control of the narrative by twenty eleven. What we are focused on that point, which can quaint now is the debt we're having like the commission's and the persistent economic sluggishness, was an exogenous condition that the president couldn't do much about and mid twenty twelve. We began to see

The economic movement and the President's this president job approval rating just seems completely and tethered to economic issues right. Well again, we don't really know that. That's. Why that's why I repeated again that you know you couldn't certainly see a world in which the press- shovel rating is considerably lower and that it and that he has derived significant benefit from the economy, but that you know he's basically derive benefit. The economy, that people who are willing, we're gonna, look at it and say he's are I vote in twenty twelve because the economy has turned round for me. Personally are already there. Were you he's done what I wanted them to do, so I will vote for him he's already there and that's basically, you know almost everybody who voted for maybe in two thousand and sixteen we don't really know that maybe

maybe there's been some shifting round in the nature of his coalition. That's only something will discover on election day, twenty twenty, let's talk all, but I've got the arguments that were being proffered yesterday by the panel of legal experts which were interesting and I think facetious. Mayors who earthenware represents. No. You just said that you believe, where question that what what Trump did with Ukraine is impeach, I'm in a kind of weird position where I could put it this way, which is, I think that they are impossible. But if I were in the Senate, no, Everything I know now I would vote to acquit that say. If I were in the house, I might vote to impeach in a fire in the Senate. I would vote to acquit, that's

weird right, but it isn't actually because you would vote to your vote to impeach in the house. Because you had no alternative but impeachment right either. If you dont vote impeach your essentially rubber damping his behaviour, which seems impulse which seems terrible to me and you I dont think that what he did rises to the level of the removal, come off it. So I wonder, There are gonna, be more people like me now. You know why you're, more and sorrow tone is entirely unacceptable to the to the right. They want bombast, an baroque language and re each with a sort of I'm talking about Joe munched pale now I'm talking about it. Do you know the voter? that I, as a you know, New York were upper West side,

or do that I have such an intimate and outline what supernatural connection to out there in the heartland right same here. I sort of suspects, that's what we have clearly. Not only do you live further west than than I do you, you are in a more heart, Landy place them better You and I are out there a dry he, the wilds of I just mean that I think maybe this attitude that I have is you know it. Why there be censure, is an option that seems to be off the table like what Trump did or attempted to do which I think you really have to be. I don't know Oh yeah, you or use the word facetious, which is not the right word, but you really have to be delivered. We blinding yourself to say that he didn't try to do what he tried to do in Ukraine cannot be viewed

should be viewed with horror and and and and and this disapprobation- and I think a lot of people felt that's why the support for impeachment jumped the way jumped and yet it's not at sixty percent. Like a country at war, seven percent forty eight percent supporting in forty four percent. Opposing it is again actually where I am somehow it's like it's close to impeachment and nowhere near removal yeah, because the people who moved when the revelations came out from don't support to support represents the entire population of persuadable voters. Nobody is judging this based on the facts, the case they are judging this based upon a universe of information, most of which has to do with how they feel about the other guy right. Ok, so go to that. So here I wanted to talk about the the art, because there are a couple of arguments that I think go to a.

Point about whether Democrats are gonna be harmed by impeachment. So the so one of them is that hey look. Impeachment in the constitution. So, first of all, trump theirs a this argument that at no Feldman Made of Harvard Law- professor, that trust calling impeachment illegitimate is unimpeachable offence, because it's in the constitution so there's at which is worried, are refusing to cooperate, are refusing to allow witnesses whatever that's impossible because, obviously its legitimate, because it's in the constitution. That's insane because it nineteen

maybe eight. My guess is that no Feldman thought that the impeachment process, a bill Clinton was a legitimate and doping, and you know you're allowed Trump can think Trump. As free speech, rights and rights to him don't opinion about things and him have in opinion that the impeachment illegitimate is. Opinion and there it is so there. I think that's absurd. That was an absurdity right. Ok, so that's one thing and an idea that does go to my point abandoned harming the Democrats, because I think anything that smacks of overreach people will look. Icon and end, and that will harm them. Ok, so let me go to this, so this is overreach by means of underage when I'm about to point out, which is then there was the argument made by Professor Gerhard Elusive North Carolina that If anything unimpeachable, this is immutable

bathing presence ever done, is impeach palaces, appreciable and and because he's trying to interfere with the upcoming election and this is exactly what the founders viewed as unimpeachable offences, because He was soliciting a bribe from Ukraine. Ok, that's! Actually. Not the over each man, a rich I'll, get to that. I'm sorry went to the wrong place. So is it the case at What the founders in the eightys, the end of the eighteenth century meant by bribery, was and in kind contribution to a re election campaign when they didn't even know their we're gonna there was gonna, be anything called the campaign

They didn't know they were going to be political parties. They didn't know what the political setup of the United States is going to be at all all together. So the no but they somehow looked into of you now that they that this is what they meant by bribery? Could this possibly be what they meant by bribery? I mean, first of all, that sort of sounds like the argument that gun control proponents make that the founders weren't far sighted enough to see Ex wisely condition that we have today and that's just simply not true of solidarity when you run out of foreign interference as a lot in the Federalist papers, about the prospect of foreign interference in politics, beholden to foreign authorities and foreign powers, that would interfere with the political process and justify removal from office. Ok, so that we have to let almost explicitly augur well Hamilton. The federalists is a great and noble and deeply important document. This is not necessarily the source material for the debates over the constitution.

I mean is the bribery had a very specific meaning in the seventy navies and it was that you paid somebody and then they changed the way they were gonna. Do things illicitly because you paid them. The bribery, that's private sense, though, get over that's what I've mines wage levels after this language based on focused grouping, because it appealed to the most disinterested voters in America ready that battleground voters who stood, whose vote is determined on a whim on election day that they responded to bribery. They didn't responded, extortion, Extensions, not solicitude, of course, can have at last. If you could. Nevertheless, language in that's constitution about impeachment does isn't specific, doesn't say, bribery and just Governor Morris introduced the broader high crimes of mister dinner's irrelevant in english common law, which concludes a platter,

whatever you want it to be in that rely. Impeachment is whatever congresses impeachment to look like zone, see some clear ethical age call today right, but I'm told what the law professors yesterday, who said that this is what they meant by bribery and I'm sorry but bribery. We all know it bribery, as bribery is a couples who, over you, give him a hundred dollars so that you get away without him. Writing it. Take it. That's bribery! There's a law flare of La Fair blog trying to defend the bribery approach, makes a cogent case, but it just immaterial because it doesn't matter language in the constitution. Relevant to impeachment is blue, not enough, so that it doesn't have to conform to that one little work. Look. You can play Tom Outta Games with this stuff till the cat. I hope, the reason that bribery came up as a approach to this is for. I see what you said, which is that it focused grouped well so yeah. You could call horse stealing bribery, but it is

and a reasonable man standard comp. You know what what it is that we mean by words by saying that you say the somebody give me something or I will withhold acts to solicit a bribe from them. Is your right? its extortion, not bribery, and for some reason maybe extortion didn't play. Well, I don't know. Abuse of power is too vague or something like that. But much of this is again. I think very clearly will be look back on his overreach. Except by the fifty percent of people who won a hatred right, there, they're not going to they're not going to look at it is over age. I think, among that fifty percent they will look back and They may be lying and they will say now. I never thought that with the bribery thing was a good idea. I I I never believed that the trumpets accountant

so the overrides there was the under reaches this part, which is a camera which one of the three of them made this argument, but it was hey. Look repeat, trumps, saying that impeachment illegitimate, because it's you know so rare, but that's ridiculous. Because it's a remedy. It's in the constitution, therefore its, Amity in founders thought that YO it there would be a lot of impeachment like they. They thought there would be impeachment all the time, so they ve who did as a conventional remedy. It's true though there was, there were disagreements the federalists by the way, I'm between Mass and J and Hamilton about how frequently it might be used, but the fact is that the constitution was passed in seventeen. Eighty I right it's now too. And thirty years since the constitution was passed and there in two impeachment out of forty five percent.

That's a third resign, so you could you could, even if you want to, you could go to three, even though Nixon was not impeached that's four percent of all presidents will have been impeached. So Is it a remedy? Yes, is an extraordinary, absolutely its extra Mary is an unusual. Its extraordinarily unused rightly less unusual to us because there was one twenty years ago, but it's almost ass if he was trying to make it seem like a no confidence vote in a parliamentary system exactly right. Well, I think That was the idea behind the notion that impeachment would be regular that it was the only way in which the legislature could express That's why we have direct election of a president is because the country has not run by a legislature. You know that That is the reason that that is the reason. The public we only office on which the american people vote in air get together is where the presidency right. So that's. Reach by look come on

its impeachment will deal will know it all time. No, no biggie like will impeach and then they'll equipment to totally normal, so ably made the point that it's not what happens now after this right about normality. Outright will get this this this could this will become regular. More common remedy going forward is if they, if that, if that is the vet argument, used Brown as as grounds this time round. Black till we have twenty five years elapse between me on Twitter. Twenty years, twenty five years elapse between Nixon and Clinton twice here's a lapse between Clinton and Trump. So much, be fifteen years until the next impeachment, our or not or forty or world really take. I mean we're trapped.

Could be a hastily tragically earnest guy here, but if we take those three examples in the twentieth century, impeachment probably won't become a super regular feature of the political landscape. As long as you don't pay off your associates who broke into places of work for Democrats or lie growth and a deposition or try to extort a foreign power to effect a political outcome. That's advantageous you these are. Ordinary circumstances thinks they are politically. Frustrating for Republicans because they can actually say what happened here is bad. They would loved be able to say what happened here is bad because everybody in this room and everybody listen. Those podcast knows this is now how politics in this country works, and there should be a constitutional remedy applied to it, and if there is not, it will become more common, so the common out of them, the more regular feature of our politics moving forward, will be. The usurpation of foreign policy and american national interests to affect political outcomes domestically Bob.

Look. I entirely agree with you that the what it's been but it but in peace. His dress so far has been valid but going forward. If you take, for example, if there is a democratic president who does things like, President Obama did regarding the IRAN deal and secret side deals. End telling Medvedev that to convey the message to Vladimir Putin that? The? U n that, after that, after Obama, on re election that he would reveal the issue of of missile defence assets. Further for the for the checks in the polls that that kind of stuff after them, will definitely they'll be moving on impeachment in a way that there wasn't,

whether the way I'd I'd stronger threaten to any Mccarthy where the whole book about how Obama should be impeached on some of this stuff. So it's not as though the analogue is that's not the analogue its proper analogue. If the Republicans were to do that to a democratic president, they would be abusing their authority the correct analogue, yeah, but the president is my point that will be abusing their that more there will be more abuse of their authority going forward. I agree with you on it legally, completely frivolous, and I don't think I and I hope that there are some that there's a speaker in office. If Republicans have control the house at that point, that would understand they, the frivolousness, which they be approaching impeachment. The analogue is foreign policy. The analogue is when the house sued, the president and one for failing to disperse congressional, appropriate funds as they were appropriated. That's the end, that literally, what we're talking about here. So you turn back, the Obama Arab, the lawsuit, against Obama, Furlano holdings, federal

dollars for Obamacare, because they were unready to spend them because they would be politically disadvantageous. Radio implement those parts of Amerika that were passed in twenty rattan. Welcome the much more cynical among us would say that a present will always gives grounds to impeach. If impeachment is considered, one of the arrows in the quiver of the opposition. You couldn't you can dig up anything you could you could impeach and Abu Ghraib if, if, if circumstances were different or over by Bush, thing heck of a job brownie, because that's abuse unjust, saying like because peach men can be whatever the house this It is in theory the house can decide that an abuse of power is almost nearly everything and there will be

an argument that will be made by people on the right that, if Trump assuming trumpets, impeached and then acquitted that if a Democrat wins and twenty twenty that they have to him, each the Democrat or look for any waited pizza, Democrat, precise because their needs to be paid back and that the devil Crowds need to know that they can use these tools with impunity and they need to now suffered the same consequences that Republican suffered and then Maybe in that point there will be a you know, a truce and that and that these methods will. Go away, we we know- and this is the ultimate pointed you make- that, if Obama dead, what trumped did that? The right would be calling for his impeachment m removal and liberals would be.

A pooling of em, throwing, let you know, could you impeach and remove Obama? Big? As of the fast and furious scandal, the gun running, suppression of the gun, resale use of, and then the use of subpoena power and investigative tools and supporters who were looking into it and stuff like that under others. Whose dances? The answer is absolutely: you could and again Andy Mccarthy made that very case in his book on on. Actually impeaching Obama so that where This comes in as a pleasant as a kind of rob little matter and wide so dangerous by the way, why maybe Democrats in the house, and then you know, should be more forbearing about this, not that they are going to be because

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Was badly run campaigns. She didn't have a rationale. Her number sank after you know the sugar high of her good first debate performance that you couldn't duplicate but it is a general argument that is being made now in liberal circles that tat this is some kind of sign of structural. Racism, gender bias and all that. So let me just put this to ebb in two thousand and eight. There are two candidates were presently democratic party. One was a woman was an african American the afternoon, can one over the woman and in twenty sixteen, the woman was the candidate for president. So we ve had a we ve had a democratic african American caring for president who will who won twice and a female. Kennedy for President who narrowly lost one bed

to become nominee and then one the popular twenty sixteen. And now we are being told that the that Democrats Democrats show, gender and race bias in having rejected calmly Harris. Are we as as as the world gone mad. Not only that yes, the world's on the head but not only that if ever an american voters were more so port of of her. Then she wouldn't know certainly be dropping out right, So who were the racist? Are they the racist Ok, let's talk about the gender biased question, ok again, what happened in twenty? Sixteen the candidate than that that that came up against Hillary Clinton, and you know like came pretty close to two all away from her

is in the race now right, so he's got a pretty. Even with, woman who is in his lame right that Sanders and bore, and our kind of I now Oh, the polling, says that's centres, its young people, but there sickly, both commies you now they're both running for the you know, I'm as commie as you could possibly get still maybe win race, so where's the jet bias? Is gender bias of Elizabeth warn? You know like actually hit she hit like nine percent, the poles at some point so Lenny But let me proposes theory you now so there's a classic form of presidential candidacy that we ve now is now basically totally gone, which is the favorite son candidate right, which is somewhat

from a very big state. Who can presumably lever his. Port in that state and maybe never neighbouring states or states are several similar to propel himself or herself into the nomination of it? There was a favorite daughter ever, but so the favorite son strategy never really worked like, thereby, oh no. My favorite son, actually ever one except maybe now Smith was nomination. So what, if race and gender are the new favorite son strategy, so you have come on Harrison Corey Bucker in particular getting into the race for for President and they don't seem to have a reason to be President right they dont seen one of the things that they struggle with is breaking.

Pack, as they have a message that people can listen to wear this right. So it is that they are black or in the case of Harris that she's blackened female. These are the reasons that you are supposed to support her, isn't that, like the favorite son like what? How is that? Where do you basically near TAT report and blocking on his name, but he's pretty good and Tom Axel now, african, american Young Guy s deed, to believe, Now having on those lines is sharp and he the title of one of his pieces. He was be investigating own winter. African american democratic communities ask them what they want with their voting for and a lot of the people with whom he spoke. You know said kind of sheepishly can just that they were supporting people whose interests aligned with

errors and not their skin color and the title of the peace was that representation is not enough. Well that- actually the definition of representation. Right I mean it's not a depiction, It is your interests are being seen to by people who share them. Kind of escaped the the comprehension of the Wolf crowd for whom an individual can be reduced, their demographic traits and accidents of birth and you No them thoroughly. That way which we used to call me at a great rate, now he's call it bigotry. Now it's enlightenment right, so I mean all this is kind of a smoke screen. The thing is: is that Kemal Harris ran out of money,

she was going to have to go into debt in order to get her to Iowa Sheet and want to do it, and so she ended her campaign because just ran out a gas if she could- and there was a peace and access wrote about about three weeks ago. The havoc and american candidates are generally suffer in fund raising terms, and that applies Democrats as well. Then they tried to demonstrate that through the presidential race, which I think is a poor reflection of that a thing not to say it doesn't exist, but it really wasn't representative in the democratic race. Kemal Harris raised two million dollars in twenty four hours after the debate performance, if she'd have kept up that momentum should still be in the race now she could not. She was a bad candidate. That's right. That's really frustrating for people who want to find some sort of socio political theory of everything, to explain why the weakest, the Woke or not, generating the traction they like, but guess what she stuck up. A joint on medication for all she had no

answer for it. She was the first to stumble on that thing. When Gama Harris Acknowledge Harris ran through the minefield blue herself up and Elizabeth Warm and charging right after her. Is making the same mistakes and everybody wonders why the bussing affair was a disaster for her. After that debate performance, she went back and forth on whether there should be forced bussing as though it was a proposition that's favourable to anybody, including Democrats. She had no rationale for her campaign, as you say, She was a bad candidate run. That's not a demonstration of how America's deeply flawed. It's a damn. Duration of why were successful. Ok, so here the thing so the complaint is: there's gonna, be six people on the democratic debate stage in two weeks. It appears only six people have have have cleared the various hurdles to be in that in the next debate. And this apparently is bad because there's a lot of color, meaning Harris, Booker and helium costume,

Basically in our working lives. Oh yeah, right. Ok that's the seventeenth time that I can remember which twin as the candidate is ok but doesn't help, because the only just grew the beard degree the beard to to be ok. I gotta get anyway ok. So that means that there are two women in the race and an a gay veteran mayor from South and in the Anna and Adieu, and Emily an american native American zero new American? Any So This is no longer diversity. Ok, go to women and at a gay man does not count as first, because the because the effort

One Africa dropped out and the other camp Camp get above the threshold because when they say diversity, they don't actually mean diversity, they mean homogeneity, just the kind of homogeneity that they first, the illogical I mean I just find it as to its its astonishing. You know it's like that. More to you now latino in the twenty sixteen election on the republican side, and no whenever gave the Republicans crew for having a diverse, feel that included two Latinos right. I mean that was you know who were like leading candidates, crews and Ruby out right

so in all this is, but they are the right man lives to my twenty sixteen year. In so far as Democrats, especially these kind of Democrats or disaffected are looking around their voters in saying I don't recognize you, people and the kind of which is weird, because it's not like they're losing the party to a figure who is completely outside its structure like Donald Trump. Joe Biden was the last sitting vice president that third agonising over, but I still don't understand that their voters are not, identity focused as they are see. I think the story with Biden who is yet again proved as weaves head for months, that He has going to gravity and he is defying gravity. Despite everybody's and understandable, like he looks like a crazy person, some of the time look see around senile, and all that we talk about that on Monday, it looks to me like in particular, african Americans are looking at this race and they're. Looking and they're saying there all crazy that

just crazy people reef, except for Biden who is maybe he's senile, but he's not crazy, they're gonna talk about spending fifty trillion dollars on health care, and you know he's not have been so the only non crazy person in the race. According to this calculation, the only two others are booted. Age who is culturally. You know. Serve a conservative, radical that say he's article culturally cause he's would be the first openly gay series candidate for President a culturally. Early because he's a married gay guy. So it's a Conrad. Conservatives are radical and Amy Club which are who just isn't gaining purchase, but I want to take a temperature of the room on something because I know you haven't seen it nay. I think you have Joe Biden that happens. You ok, cell describe

find, has an ad out to web ads. Not I don't think there's a by behind it, but there may be in the future cuz it's pretty good at. It features Donald Trump for the first thirty seconds getting laughed at by world leaders. He was in the NATO summit they're laughing at him. Behind his back. He was delivering an address, the United Nations. I think it was his first where he was said of most accomplished, president and ever and any other president and the entire general assembly laughed at him, and Joe Biden says you know we need not to be laughed at now, the take their to text,

the one that I've seen mostly from conservatives as this is bad for Trump. This is great for Trump everybody hates international leader. Is everybody hates the french everybody hates these elite institutions? They want to tear him to the ground and burn everything down. This is why trump one this is gonna be good for him. I don't share that perspective. I don't think the suburban moms who are going to decide this election like to see the president laughed out by world leaders like to see him become the butt of the joke. The President Chirac doesn't like it he's miserable when he's laughed that I think it's gonna gnawed him. I think it's gonna, not everybody else. I think it's a good message. Okay, so I think it's ok. I do think that their that answer,

Well, it can boomerang a little bit because you would have you could literally do something where you showed that the Europeans and everybody laughed at Brown Reagan, and then you show the Berlin Wall coming down, because it is true that they are all like he's a cowboy you're, an idiot he's a moron, and then you know he leaves office and an ten months later the Berlin Wall is people are going at the Berlin Wall with pickaxes. So you know like what we need is more european leaders to laugh at our leaders who will show the world what what that that would be my, but it it's gotta, be a answer like you can't just leave it alone cause it's not good for people to be laughed at in the notion that everybody hates you know. Europeans and foreigners is kind of application of a of a somewhat elite

Pinion about these things and assuming that it has populist, you know you ve got a harness it. You ve got a make the case that what they're doing as unfair you can't presume that everyone is just going to accept that its unfair. That's that's why I would say: yes, I think it's a printed its printed concept also theirs. Stinks between showing foreign Peters laughing at the President, the american president, which I as you alluded to not having any one likes, it would be different if the head was you know trump his nose at european leaders, which witches blue frustrating them, which would be which may be

gained some purchase along the lines of of their. We should republican defence that, and we should add that the context of why Macaroni and Trudeau were laughing at the president is he held this impromptu press conference, at which point he was asked whether he supports the uranium protesters and said no point blank and then had to backtrack right. Because he has no idea what you're talking about. Maybe I don't need I sort of his valuable support protesters right generally speaking or small, be Democrats yeah, ok, so. I want to know about another add that I did see that maybe you guys didn't see, which I thought was may be the worst add I've ever seen ever, which is this add that the super pack backing Corey Booker made another one. Bad which strikes me. I'm only bring it up. You should google it and look at it because it struck me as being an act of sir.

Sabotage, the likes of which I ve never seen, because it's basically like oh look, here's a mayor, road scholar, a you know, of the veto, intelligent person and that they show pictures of people to judge. As the sort starts like donor, no, not him, and then they show Corey Booker, and it's like He is also a road scholar and was a mayor and all that, like. So vote for him instead. So basically, this add makes the case for P Buddha judge before it makes the case for Corey Booker on the grounds of Sequoia. Booker is kind of, like he put a judge, he's serve. Like he's he's its second position, and this add, was made to support Corey Booker, so I don't know who that super pack is it, and I don't know who they could solve this, but somebody should find out who the consultants as it may the add, an not higher it for you.

Thirteen, because people are crazy This is the other thing that if you re all right, I'm sorry I'm in love, adjusted it's. Why would you I mean if it first of all its not ahead, if you're gonna resolved to take the hit take the head, but why why? Why are you going after the guy in third place nationally in- and I was just sort of just barely above first place like no one's laying a finger on Joe Biden, who is in the lead it no one seems to print know that there's again it's very twenty sixteen phenomena here where everybody expects this collapse to occur, Some point which just isn't everybody's biting their time in devoting their focused everybody else, but you know it's very hard, but because the obvious hit on behind is that he's says good thing xanax in a weird way. I had to go and no one it is, but a boy to get to get out there and and attack them on those grounds is

is at least semi. So that's why it is that we have before us exactly that two eyes. Superpower. Is this I will say that it is explicitly really light. The reason why they don't interactive, so you can have really no holds barred and tax younger about now. There, too, Which is, it is true that everybody who has risen and gone at Biden has suffered for it Harris in the long run Eric swell well, who was it cast who was it that serve did the use at that already you just due to IRAN, where there was a debate in which someone thought that he had trapped by oh yeah. That was the other he does. I was just here There was a misfire, but he had planned for right. It was clearly a plan hit that who was trying to release it uses forgetting what you just said executives yeah than it was at that. Wasn't nice you now. So there is something it has its. Not as easy as it looks it

easy, but it's not as easy as it looks to attack him, and I think, by the way the same thing happened would Harris with that I'll think where he said, I'm supported by the only african american woman ever elected Senate by said and then and then comma goes. I got me what about me over here me and then he said No, I said first, but he hadn't said first, but up A fair minded person nodded Idiot would say Ok, so he said first because he must have meant first and he must spoke like he wasn't disrespect didn't calmly Harrison stage death, unfair, like that's again, that the attacks on Biden that that boomerang are seem too boomerang because there are actually crappy attack? acts like let somebody come out and say this guy can't beat trump Has he really does not seem to be in control of himself like

but they're afraid to do it and they're afraid to do it because he's because it turns out you're afraid to attack the earlier. I think what we learned from Trump and it's what we learn from its or learning from from Biden and somebody. That seeds all that ground to the Trump side. That's not afraid to do it, I mean they will respond to unless they'll ask the public doesn't like. Unless this is the point, unless it's harder than it looks. Maybe it's harder than it looks like you go at somebody. You say senile. You say he's. You know his MRS behaviour trumps attack Biden for being hands with women Now that's problematic like this. I could it be that great for him now nobody, but but for being foggy and rambling. Yes,

be right. Well, he'll do it, I'm just saying we have some evidence suggested. Maybe it doesn't have the purchase it's it's I'm a young. It's you don't sound like a gimme that it's gonna work. May boomerang Biden the Inn the unwillingness of people to grant Biden has strength is is getting there. Strange were in December this race Now eleven months old people were declaring, for the presidency. In January, Biden declared in April, he's been running for eight months He has been in the lead, since he started at what point is not the prohibit, for it I mean I, you know the deluge. Structure of the of the Democratic Party, may well render him not to prevent a favorite, because but then he

Go into the convention in the lead and less at all, it's all betting on the come that he will destroy him of vat is twenty. Sixteen all over That was if you, if we had been doing this podcast in the sun twenty fifteen when we were not right, we work. Well, I don't know, maybe please. I don't remember that in the sixteenth like we did, but I don't think we're doing it now. We would have said well, you know trumps gonna, I mean I mean it's point I mean he's gotta get out get out, it's not gonna happen right will at what first of all at what point Biden lose altitude, so the theory

now there are going to be six people in debate so that he will talk way more now it s not like any ain't. Nobody seem insane the debates. You can't debate himself out of this race. That's no longer at a theory that other areas that he loses in Iowa, he didn't even get a ticket at Iowa, maybe comes in fourth conventional wisdom. Is there three tickets Iowa so maybe comes in fourth in Iowa, real bad hidden. I, what goes on in New Hampshire loses New Hampshire. May becomes, and secondly becomes a third and then the firewall in Nevada and South Carolina collapse. Ok. I have seen no indication whatsoever that his support among latina voters, RADA, african american voters, Carolina, is going anywhere and you need fifty percent to get delegates right. That's the rule here. The threshold in every state is unique. Fifteen percent so binding its fifteen percent in Iowa. If you lose, if he's forth in Iowa, but he gets ten percent and, like you know, sanders. Get sixteen percent sanders will get

I've delegates and he'll get for delegates and. But a judge, winds, he'll, get nine delegates and Warren will get seven delegates had. Suddenly it doesn't look so great As in the republican field, you want to state, you got almost all the delegates and hear their proper. There they're gonna be handed out proportionately above fifteen percent, and so you can have worn willing. Without two more delegates. Organ of Buddha Judge, winning, but only getting two more delegate's than Biden is that a win is you know, as a structural matter, weigh less impressive. The headline might be. You know it's like if you will the box office on a weekend right, but you, but what you get is,

ten million dollars as opposed to a hundred and eighteen million dollars. It's just not is impressive. There's also the money issue of all the tops, your candidates. I don't have any that the data are waiting on another disclosure pretty soon, but I dont think guidance fund raising has been especially good. I know by judges has warrens has Sanders, has helped and said the super Tuesday races our. Really, expensive media markets. You're gonna have to put a lot of money and all those markets, and we also know that, but we do know is that I am one of those org ya, gonna saturate the airwaves right there, just burning money. So does the question. As does money matter as much in these races. If they're gonna be saturated anyway by known in candidates, first of all, but a judge has written candidates, only those ordinary money, you imports, but I think his as they call it burn rate is incredibly he's got hundreds of people working form an IRA he's going

spend most that money in Iowa. We know that the Sanders campaigners famously profligate, like Sanders reality. My hundred we're too what that was by distorting whether he raised like two hundred fifty fifty dollars, Sanders and the Democrats primary twig and he spent all of it He spent it like a sailor like a drunken sailor, so Biden, you could say you know, husband is resources resources I mean who that allows the complaint Him was that he was using is plain to March, which is again. You know think that there are signs. That Biden is running a brilliant campaign because he is defying his own gravity, which would suggest that he is stronger than he appears or that his support his grass roots for it is stronger than appears and that he knows at at number to Twitter is not running. His eyes

frustrating the Webster's. The most is that he is ignoring or actively defying the twitter online laughed and demonstrating that they the limits of their authority. She, I think there has been a kind of a shift in the rationale for denying buttons. Gravity, which is that they get it in its initially. There was an expression of of weakness, but I think he has since the start of the campaign, given a lot of people, reason to doubt that he can and in feed that he is the gotta be Trump and I think people are scared. Now I think they are but I think the anxiety is Are you serious but I ll give you another example of why he may be running incredibly smear campaign, though he himself may targeted, o Thou Knowest says we have pre good evidence that he's not gonna beat himself. Some he's gonna have to beat him

as he really really you know, trips himself up. Are you really like goes into a year? He freezes or something. His eye exploded. I right. Ok, ok, nobody saw this. He released attacks plan yesterday, you know what the tax, when doesn't have it Some have a wealth tax. It all He doesn't attacks plan raise rates back, the level they were in the Obama years. Two: three trillion dollar plan: it's not a fifty trillion dollar plan. It's not a thirty trillion dollar plan It is a three trillion dollar plan over ten years now, That's. Why he's running a smart campaign? He is raising campaign that says I'm not crazy all these other people are much sugar and I'm the sugar, I'm old and I'm a girl and my eye explodes and God knows, what's gonna come out of my mouth, but I've, a crazy person, and this this You know fake, indian, baby is a crazy person and

You know- and this socialist from remind is a crazy person, and I am- and you know what They are also pretty close to be an age as its trump, so who's gonna come after me for age. Bernie Sanders is older than I am the hell with him try, gonna call me old he'll. Also, you know how do we know is not going to have an incontinent moment some time this year is like seventy four I'm. So that's his brand incontinence will just be a running at the mouth. All I'm saying is that it it's important. The evidence of your eyes has to count. You know he's now twelve points up on Sanders in the in the real, clear politics average. There was a moment six weeks ago, when he and and Elizabeth worn were tied and then she sank and he stayed right there. I mean

granted. Maybe he has a ceiling, maybe his ceiling as thirty percent You know Trump had a ceiling around thirty percent and he ended up winning the nomination with forty five percent. Now it may be again, the democratic structure makes it impossible that, if race goes all the way through you now the very end, and you know people gay. If it's too, if it's it's a race, until them like me, then up that it's a race between two them bides, not gonna, get. Eighty five percent of the vote in every state then deny delegates to whoever is running against them, like you really could have a thing where he comes into the convention or someone comes into the convention three hundred gets short and the first ballot because of the change of rules at Bernie, Sanders insisted on the first battle. Can't be won by anybody. Thou be fun thief trump. If Trump did something no one's done before we can have the first country

stood convention in are in the modern primary era that could be fun. That and the two sixty nine tie wool. The two sixty nine tie, add sister, that's right! I'm Dame made the second district may someday Erika it's gonna happen, so with that, we will bring this to a close. Christine Rosen will begin studio on Monday, so that'll be fun and for a agreement an arrangement jump onwards.