Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today's Monday November second, twenty one days ago, I'm John ports. The editor of Commentary Magazine, which me as always, Senor writer Christine, rose high Christine I Jan executive, editor a green while the high Abe hygiene, Socio editor nor Rossman High Marilla. I got so. I just wanted to let people, oh that tomorrow night we are going to be doing at talk about like old old all these but

please we're going to do a live blog on our website. That commentary magazine dot com, we're just going to have like what we will be commenting through the night in a single post. That will call something, like you know, election night with commentary Christine Noah and the Abe, and I will be you know, adding whatever it is, that we can add. I will confess

for the reasons that we are doing this is that, since I no longer I will write on twitter, I gotta have some outlet tomorrow night or I will go out of my head so well, we're all gonna, Sir join in so good. A commentary magazine tat come out. My people tomorrow. We're gonna do something old different today, since this is the day before the twenty twenty election at Noah. Last week you add, decided to take a trip down memory lane and you listen to the first or the last podcast we did before election day. Twenty sixteen Christine was not with us. Then it was just you may enable, and we were surprised to hear what was it, they were surprised to hear why I thought it would be a pretty mortifying experience. Site is kind of shamefully did it on my own and tell anybody that this was gonna, be the case since just kind of self regulating.

say almost never watched, listen to performance, it's on media services, for the moment decision, but really wasn't like humiliating. In fact, it was a kind of heartening to hear us game out. All the scenarios in at least with an with an open mind, or at least not in dismissive of and contemptuous of the qualities that lead to what actually happened. So we recovered covered ourselves in oh no, it's glory per se, but at least it sir a cupboard our butts bright. So I thought we would listen to some bits of our discussion and then react to them and hear serve like a sea. How weirdly similar the conversation in that

last day what which, which I think Noah and I, and maybe a band Christine both remember as having been far more a determinate. Is this thought that you know Hillary just had had this in the bag? Then it seems to have been the case. Then somehow, what we we fundamentally miss remember what the emotions were in the last day or two and our friends got emigrated. Ricochet is helping us today with his advance technical skills we ve got. We ve got a couple of of these clips Scott. Can you can you run clip? number, one, which I guess we're calling systemic failure. Does it appear that Donald Trump has the upper hand, has momentum or is likely prevail tomorrow night and become the next president of the United States?

the only thing that seems to be speaking. People, including I'll gurus and the people who make their wives aggregating, Paul's and put them together is the possibility of there is a systemic failure going on a failure to measure appropriately the trumps support that he still have these millions of hidden voters, particularly in places like Michigan, which has been a solid democratic. State for with president, for many years and maybe even in Pennsylvania. That seems more unlikely, okay, so, ah systemic failure. is literally the only argument that is being met it today for the possibility that Donald Trump can win re election So on the day that was November, seventh, twenty twenty we have look. It could be that their systemic fail

you're in Pennsylvania, though it seems unlikely and we're in exactly the same place today, a piece last night Byron York, who was an old friend of mine, washes amateur. Who was one of the first people to see that surge in the Republican Party in twenty fifteen and in New Hampshire has appeal. where he basically interviews people at Trump rallies They all say all of their friends are voting for trumpet won't say so, and there is a shy trump voter, so Abe. Yes, what do you make of this weird were echo? Well, I mean it's: it's

it's funny, because we were concerned or we were cognisant of the prospect of systemic polling failure back then, without even the precedent of their having been pulling failure in the in the in a previous presidential election, which we now hats whether there have been pulling failure. Oddly enough, twenty twelve was a bad Pauling year, but it would not like the harmless, but when in a bomb is direction rhetoric. Yeah. That's right! Well, so, what's interesting forces that in twenty sixteen there was not much pulling being done of Pennsylvania, there was actually quite a lot but Michigan. Certainly there is almost no Paulie because- and we know that you know Hilary neglected at them trump one at, and that of course has been corrected because all the

all those states that was constant, Michigan Pennsylvania have been like wildly Paul than there were like two hundred and seventy two poles of Pennsylvania, that there is one thing that I say about the the the correct for the failure and at its just a possibility and add cause. I will never. We talk about the possibility of the shy trump voter is out there not being captured. I only say you, it is a possibility. I am not arguing that that is definite what's happening, but you cannot correct for people lying to you, I don't think I don't how things right. There are two things we can correct for you can correct in alike voters screen for people Levin voted before by definite if they vote before they're, not in your pole and if a lot of them show up, you're gonna have to get about and then unless, unless

there registration by party, which there isn't in Pennsylvania, believe, but there is informed and places like that or people lying to upholsterer or what's called non response bias, which is that people will not participate in a nepal and therefore they may systematic we'll be there demographic category might systematically be excluded. That's why pollsters do this thing called waiting where they presume that these people exist even if don't show up in there pulling data and they change their number. They change their mathematical formula to increase the number of people who say that they'll do something in line with people in the poor. Who are that demographic, like none college, whites for example? So if it is so, if its there's another there's a repeat of that kind of failure, it because it.

We'll have been, because you cannot correct from for people like you, I mean that, as you know, we ve broken with the by Baron. Yorks argument break it so Christine in terms of the smell test. It's one thing to think that people might be lying on the margins, its mother, to think that just as there is systemic Paul failure that some people are systematically lying to pollsters, not not deliberately to screw things up, but that there is such a cultural shift in the country and is so terrifying to admit that you would be voting for trump in, but basically by the way and states that voted for where Trump, one, that you know that I didn t attire. Category of people lie the pollsters at the same rate and therefore you know arm art, skewing the poles in the wrong direction.

Well, it's so, since I wasn't on the show that you guys did. I went back and listen to the whole episode, which I just have to say to our. If for any of our viewers listeners who we want to do that, there's an epic trolling, the job Does he know as pronunciation about it, which was deeply unfair about doing it to you, because of some are bad, but I was struck actually by how all three of you hit on themes that have remained constant for this letter. Is you noted earlier John, but that were there that the left, and certainly the mainstream media seems not to have learned. One of those, in particular, is the way that it treats the trunk voter. I mean this was these learning moment that teachable moment they ought to have had in the right. So we should. We should play that Clip Scot. I guess it's, the one called other ring and then see how that veto job of work

stay the same. If its main thing here is that the Trump voter remains in the eyes of the genome, of the media, lead and facile factual opinion. All this a kind of other they always accuse republican Some concerns of other ring minorities and other ring people like that, and, of course, this is the ultimate other. These are people who live in places they travel to who live lives. There really understand who remain more church based or you know, a home based more likely. You live near the places that their grandparents and great grandparents lived less mobile that's knowing about the rest of the country, all of that and so all of their thinking, out. Them is necessarily speculative because that the empathy may be real, but it is almost like their reading, a novel about the people and not in our having

real experience other meanwhile, the Trump voter, and what Trump is appealing to is there said to bother noticing this, where you know he goes and he talks to these voters. He says things like if you go into Detroit you're going to get killed right. So I totally forgotten this that, as that trumpet one of Trump's closing message: was these cities are hell Holes Chicago Detroit, their hellhole, If you live in the suburbs, you should vote for me, that's airy right. They will Chicago was in bad shape, but I mean they were in hell holes that you know Edna. Here we are in twenty twenty after the riots in the summer of the end of the summer of disorder and decay and violence, and that message may have ended in twenty sixteen, and there doesn't seem to be much evidence that its landing now What what are you? What do you make of this specific other ring, because it seems to me like

there was a lot of very condescending effort to understand the Trump voter after twenty sixteen, you know it's like us and let us go visit like that. You know we're going to look going to visit small towns in Michigan and you know, hunt the elusive snark. Oh, it's like I miss missionaries data going down. There are going down the river in Africa. Looking for people to convert right, it's an area. two, because there was this some real trend towards decay porn. In the early period of the Trump Administration, where you would have well the old journalists on the coast, parachuting into these towns and just asking the people who lived there for generations, and why are you still here? Why don't you leave and now, where that, where the Cape Horn, it's an american urban centres in the cities that are falling, pardon or abandoned, and when the sun, this down resemble. I am Legend units

should have some people from appellation parachute into into seven the avenue and as people on the streets. Why are you still here by guy I mean there's, as you said earlier, it sort of Vega, it's a very different political landscape. Now the prospect of dumb from being a theoretic, a theoretical, idea. Hypothetical is no more and in the kind of systemic polling error that, I think, would probably will experience tomorrow to the tune of a couple of points in certain places that have failed in the last two cycles to capture the republican boat accurately, notably in places like Florida, materialise, but it has to materialise everywhere we have no evidence, That system, appalling failure has been evident everywhere and there are places that have continually failed to count. The democratic vote for simple places like Georgia in Arizona which have continually under counted democratic turn out and the and underestimated the democratic shrink that the pole,

so the notion that this is gonna be uniform or advantages. Trump uniformly is not worn out by the by the data and down from needs of big pulling your everywhere in order to pull this out as opposed to twenty? Sixteen, where he really didn't need a giant pulling Europe than where he got it in places like Michigan? That was what was unexpected. I think people really shocked, not shocked by was concept This is like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which had a much longer history right. Well, as I said, are the pulling in Michigan was was, was scant and so calling if there were a systemic pulling failure in Michigan, where I believe by them is ahead by nine and appalling averages, giving how much fallen there. There has been That's a larger systemic, pulling error that in twenty sixteen, when there were fewer data points to aggregate.

similarly Pennsylvania, which I think is ending up at about five percentage points with almost all the polling, except for the very partisan conserved appalling of the last two or three days, not between five and seven. I should clarify my terms, its heart, systemic, pulling error to be off by two points that that's right, a misnomer run. If that's not the impression, I want to get its a bit. Systemic pulling out for every pull to show the race, eight nine ten points up and then all of a sudden, its debts. Twelve points in the other direction. That's error to points off is within the margin of error, and I may look more little yeah. If you look at the number of aids that are close to you now have this you have these weird states that are close, that shouldn't be close that should be in the republican category. You know

Georgia, Texas, Iowa and Arizona which are you know, have been republican states forty years or something like that, and they are closer than that states of twenty six, their closer than Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. so what you see there is Trump wouldn't just have to have veto systemic, pulling hell in those he would basically These errors would have to be being made everywhere. He needs to not have something fall, go against him simply through random selection or whatever, tomorrow night To win their words like he can win everything that he won. While I think

losing one of the mid western states right like Wisconsin, which is almost certainly are what Mitya, which are almost certainly without mitigated officer, out of his reach, but so he could win Florida Carolina Pennsylvania, but if he loses George, a Texas, Arizona, Iowa or if you lose, is Texas alone? Then he's done for so you know he's not needs to win every place that he one before he has. He is defending territory where odds are one of the one of those states. Its floor that North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Iowa Arizona, one of them is gonna fall to bite and so many of them and their all

all white tie. Their all jump falls. Well. This actually ties into something else. I thought with this interesting that you guys disgusted and twenty sixteen and not see enthusiasm. The enthusiasm gap and the gap that you guys described in twenty. Sixteen, which was interesting, was the enthusiasm for Trump and a lot of people on the right, we're noticing, but that the media I was ignoring, and certainly Clinton's campaign was ignoring, but weirdly this year it's funny, because whenever there is enthusiasm for Trump it shone is a pathetic. G by the media, so that over the weekend, I'm sure a lot of art. The listeners saw that that there were these trunk trains that the shutdown, bridges and highways deem most annoying human beings on earth. I don't care who you are supporting gear in D C, simple! That's been going on constantly for months, they shut down bridges, they shut down highways shutdown, residual all the time. The black lives matter. Folks- and That'S- do not consider this in a virtuous form of protest. These

folks do it. I find it just is annoying when they do it, but it's it's. Can it it's shown on. The news is some sort of horrible horrible thing, but the enthusiasts gap now does seem to be trumps own voters Fort Trump, whereas in twenty sixteen there there was a joke you ain't, gonna grass roots enthusiasm for him that that was being ignored it now, it's almost like its being manufactured by trumped instead to sort of incurring cells, in a way that the Poles, just simply don't reflect right. So we find ourselves in this weird position where People now understand that sixty three million people voted for Donald Trump, which they didn't understand back then they still understand why, for the most unless they, unless they argue that this is all atavistic

the journey to the past racism. You no hostile, EL hostility, the liberalism whatever, but they dont understand that in any given in up rise, partisan situation? You know dad Donald Duck would get sixty million votes. If you running on the republican plan, the republican lie that that is, the nature, does matter. The generic Republican or the generic Democrat is gonna. Get sixty million votes whatever their name is because that's the world that we're living in now, and so you can't really if you want to say that every trump voter is morally complicit in the evil. If they vote forum of that's fine, that's all that's a different form of other ring, because that you complicit in common Harris's the last night. That basically argued for the position that equality of result is more important than equality of opportunity, which is a deeply unaware,

can, and indeed you know, mildly, communist marxist view and something that is made, among the most radical things in any major candidate for office has ever said, and you know had she done this two weeks ago. Who knows we know whether Trump bite finally have been able to make headway with the it's, not Ernie, it's not a yo, see it's actually on the ticket, is Camelot, arguing this incredibly on american thing, but she did it on the on the eve of the elections. So you know,

Why can't we say that, basically in their voting for communism, if you say that voting for trumpets voting for racism, you know we can. Maybe some people were voting for tramper voting, because their racist that that's the nature of that's the nature of the french buys. Unfortunately, so let kick. Let's talk a little bit about Noah like a lot of people's, though it says, he's spotting Trump, a couple of points in the polls everywhere out of court, not everywhere by all cases, places unless two consecutive cycles set up under Canada Web Florida improve all right, Sophia, Loren Theatins, mostly red states, its places, likeness

brewery in Indiana and Ohio and I'll hop in Florida. That's where you got really consistent book, two thousand and sixteen and two thousand and eighteen errors that disadvantaged Republicans right. So Florida is basically, I think you know the only you as get point toward Biden. So if you were to find, if you were to apply those formula, it's a point toward tour trump here's what's interesting to me. We alluded to this last week, so I saw the mass is as follows: there are two hundred thousand more Democrats them Republicans registered to vote in the state of floor enough. I think it's five point. Two million Democrats, five million Republicans in the early vote, totals

which are colossal. There are, I think three million Democrats and two point, eight billion republican, something like that in the in the in the early vote. What does says to me is that there is a theory abroad about tomorrow and voting. That is now, I think and our data. This is the only thing we could probably possibly say about the early vote. If I'm right about this, which is the ideas them that's gonna vote orally, the Republicans are going like score on election day that certainly what was thought in twenty. Sixteen. When Democrats did vote early and Republicans, then search on election day, an trump took the state quite quite early. In the count I mean, I think it was called from at eleven, but it was pretty clear by nine that tramples gonna win it.

I think that advantage is now gone that I eat out. Basically, the same numbers of Democrats and Republicans have come out to vote early. There are there aren't more Republicans than Democrats or Republicans are going to have to have wildly higher turnout to election day, which seems unlikely like it seems like they, both in the air voted early, the way they would vote on and so the elect their isn't going to be a giant election day, twenty five point, more Republicans voting than Democrats which means the elections gonna, be decided by the by the Non Party affiliated voter. If you think that Republicans are going about Republican and Democrats organ, Democrats, a one story, wine of the last six months, I think, as is, is conclusively disproven because

regrets did not turn out and wildly greater numbers in the early voting and Republicans held back. They both at the same time the same percentage numbers early, so I don't know what you guys make of that. I am I. I still think that then it's too early to say, because the the campaigns among Democrats and liberals to vote earlier are so you big what is in it they're not at all on on the right that I still have to wonder. If, if we're not going to see that the disproportionate total on election day in the other direct, ok. Well, what happened was its even more interesting than the Florida case, because Democrats voted overwhelmingly by male early and Republicans had the advantage. Voting.

in person early like, which is what I did on Saturday here. I voted in person at appalling place early, so I it's not cleared trump invalidated. Among Republicans, the act of voting by bailed some extent, but then they went out an early at appalling play, so I'm just saying that the numbers don't lie there very close to parity in this early voting plus vote by mail and their very close to parity in terms of overall party numbers. So there's no reason to believe that republicans are gonna come out greater numbers tomorrow, the Democrats I gotta sand does not seeing what you're saying why, according to the world, according to the Associated Press two days ago, on until the thirtieth, based on their analysis of the states that report early voting by party idee and political data from

now assess, the Democrats are leading in the early vote over Republicans nationally, but forty seven to thirty three percent. I'm not talking! I'm only talking about Florida here, and the only thing is that the case in the rest of the rest of the country, for example, but I'm holding talking about Florida, I will give you the numbers and Florida. Ok, ok, here the numbers, eight point: nine Two million votes were cast early voting Democrats three point: five million Republicans three point: four million democratic, early votes. Thirty nine point, two percent of all the bread what that is public, since thirty, eight percent, ok, so in and then I looked up on the Florida sectors, its side and there are five point: two million Democrats and five million Republicans, so in Florida only Florida

Democrats and Republicans turned out in very comparable numbers to vote early Democrats, it appears have a like a hundred thousand vote advantage so baby, a hundred thousand more republicans, will turn out on election day which you now, which is not nothing but its, but it still like two or three percent or something it's not. You know some gigantic number so that's that's what I'm referring to monitoring about the early we're not talking about this overall apparent in Pennsylvania, their expecting you know. What's the trump voter turn out, you know in huge numbers on election day and that the that the early vote for binding you know this is the whole conundrum of Pennsylvania. Like it's gonna take longer to counter the Trump Odin is therefore its trump add. That Biden vote is therefore is trump. Gonna declare victory in Pennsylvania when they only have half the boat, and that was that that was the other. That was the

Look out over the weekend, the Trump is going to be no stage a coup by saying he won Pennsylvania when he had won it. Yet on the Democrats and done in a way we talked couple months ago about how they're not doing the door knocking and in particular you know, staying in his basement bunker, but they have been doing a ton of focused on calling undecided borders and voters encouraging voters in Pennsylvania to go vote on election day. I have friends actually who spent the whole weekend on the phone with it number list calling people constantly telling them to go vote for Joe by needs to end. It was interesting because a lot voters they are good. I asked my crew: were these voters like what a lot of an independence undecided or first time, voters who didn't register into you can just you need to show up in person at the poles to cast their vote because they ve missed melon ballot deadlines and what not so they do. You know that they have a pretty pretty solid focus on pencil. I know which it will be interesting to see what that turns up for them

You should say it would be extremely underhanded, but the president to declare Victor. The on election day, because it could very well have a ten point advantage in Pennsylvania, on the election day vote a lot. People expect him to have a dragon, take advantage on election day, because Republicans are about an election day right, look He's wearing over common advantage from absentee balanced based on party, let alone you would need, like a twenty five pointed banish, the number of robot democratic, he's here about imposing Pennsylvania, is astronomical right. Ok, so here's the point, then at what is going to go on tomorrow night with and what I'm saying everybody is going to say. So, I'm now back going mainstream cliche. Florida and taxes are going to come in relatively early if one of them goes for trumpet, doesn't matter what happens in Pennsylvania, and so that says that simple Florida, if Florida looks like it's going for bide misuse me Florida looks like it's going for buying.

And then the whole drawn over Pennsylvania's over it only matters if Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, and then we have a drama if if the scenario that I'm laying out where you have all of those states where Biden is pressuring Trump and it's a jump ball in the polling, George, a Texas and Florida in particular, and one of them, one of them tips toward toward Biden. It's the elections not exactly over. I've been floored it's over, but you know George, it's not over Texas, it's over North Carolina, it's not really over, but it's pretty close, and you know if you were few were like bedding, the odds you would say. One of those things is gonna happen you now just because, as

Hey if they're jump balls that you can presume that the ball, but you know, is going to go to one team and not the other twenty five percent of the time. So, let's pull back. Give me a second to talk to you guys about today's sponsor the Jordan Harbinger show a very different kind of sponsor. We've been talking about it for a couple of this podcast named one of apples best of twenty eighteen is aimed at making you a better informed, more critical thinker, so you can get a sense of how the world actually works and come to your own conclusions about what's happening. There's an episode for everyone stories

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friend out in California, can we run clip too about made silver. So the question Noah is our Is our people being too nervous about estimating at Pillory Clinton has this in the bag and what is it that is generating the nervousness? Well, I guess it depends on who you talked at random and that the poster boy for this phenomenon has Disney silver. Over five thirty, eight who's been giving the left absolute ah Judah because he's saying that Donald Trump has a thirty five percent chance of winning the presidency and Hillary Clinton has two thirds better odds. Are right, so here's was interesting. Last night, they'd silver put up a piece.

while his own side said that Biden had an eighty, nine percent chance of winning saying Trump could still went biggest things of well things happen one in ten, and it is one of the bizarre worries of NATO. Career that he claims that he is trying to educate people about probability is that this is really what his goal is an that's the theory of his book, the signal the noise he's just trying to educate people about what probabilities really are and that things happen one in three all the time things happen, one in ten all the time and that's the take away you should get from that which is horse plucky because, of course, what is he's right? But there, therefore, you shouldn't be have as your headline the odds of Biden winning the presidency, because that that itself is a complete refutation in big number of your point, which is that these odds are

there what their misunderstood. You misunderstand and ninety percent chance, if you think that means that you're almost certain to win because you're not nest thoroughly, almost certain to win and last night. He Did it again, people say: oh, he got it wrong last time and knows reminding us that he was getting crap last time for even daring to say the trumpeted three intend chance of winning, which obviously he did. Last night, you put up a pulsing, I'm here to draw up a posting, I'm here to tell you that Donald Trump can still when the presidency and twitter came down around his head. Hundreds and hundreds of tweets at you're just cut

bring your but you're just differences covering yourself in case it happens. You are, you know, dishonest. How can you do this you're driving everybody, crazy, blah, blah blah so weirdly enough? Another area, echo of of twenty sixteen Abe. I added, I think you are you're like as neurotic about looking at these numbers as no and I are but of of a date, silver was actually caricature. Lanzarote lie with the opening sketch Saturday night for saying look Trump as much jam. Of winning, as I have of a verb whirling. It I am hitting the number one and then twice in early hits the number one so he's now become a figure of sport and in an elevation even in popular culture. What what do you make? It us I think the reason people are come down around him come come down on his head when he, when he says things like you'd, like you said last night is because, under other circumstances,

because they use him also incorrectly to comfort themselves right. So if he, so that is the bears the problems or when he ceases to comfort them. would buys by saying there is the only one in ten shot of of Trump winning. Then then they forget the bright eyed. I I don't observe the policies policies, as you know, do because I that, because I'm more neurotic and following the news and say that I am more neurotic than you neurosis competition in any done the hand So that is the point. Data is like one too far. For me, I would be would push me over the edge. Ok, I do not know it. Now is not everyone tat. There was no not entering the neurosis. Competition he's, like you guys, are more neurotic

I'm sorry, I gotta see I've got a mix up. The point concerning solar rose to national prominence, nay. He had been at the figure within this industry for years prior, he became a figure of some celebrity in twenty twelve. Does he was saying the poles, don't believe the poles. I know the national policies, funding. As that reads like a clean, the average here and I know that these of ahead and swung states- and then you know just that the odds are the odds, are that it's gonna be the can fallen Brok of on this direction. only takes the scene this event or that of answer. How much probability? What have you and that's that where he became a celebrity because he was giving all these Democrats were panicking reason not to panic, surrounded by right. Now is no reason to panic and they're, not especially written about it. I like they too. I like that.

Silver. I like his writing. I, like his pod Kai, really enjoy their five thirty eight podcast and I think it's an important point that he makes that I'm trying to assess each trot trying to take comfort in these numbers is up is a fool's Aaron, because they will. They will come back to bite you, but it is his bread and butter. That's that's! That's the weird thing: it's like a horrible, be direct your saying you know I don't like when Howard Stern said, I never let my kids listened to my radio show or something like that in our or hard Boogie director says. I would never let my kids watch my movies like okay, so maybe you shouldn't be making those movies. If this is your attitude out what you do to make your living, you know it's kind of a weird

weird thing, but the tongue. I mean that giving it to go to think that the shift in exile levels urban neuroses for this election compared to twenty. Sixteen I mean he's just trying to not be Brittany, Spears Oaks. I do it again and for that, like I professionally, that's just smart, but there's a sense in that now in which- and I think when you know when you look at the suppression of the Hunter Biden story and you look at the kind of weird overreactions, a very minor things that we see in the mainstream media narrative about last month, or so now there there is a real panic, a real sense of we cannot let this happen, which is very different than he cannot win reelection right that that those are two different paths, and I mean this speaks to them. The concern about election day. Violence about oh, you know, Trump, isn't gonna gonna concede that there is a whole range of. We can't let this happen and the

There is only a certain group of people in this country that I think once again seized the other side, not just as an other now, but it actively as enemies. In some ways it is a threat to democracy, so in the sense that this elections, that stakes feel much higher for a lot of people. That's why and again going back to the twenty sixteen broadcast it was. There were sincere, these issues on the table, you guys all express some really healthy scepticism of Donald Trump and how we make our media with. It was a great great, listen the stakes in the tone really who feel different this time round now, but you know warehouse adele- because there are higher or lower known. I think this takes her, this Dar always the stakes of the presidential election in what I am saying is that the tone is very much more like this is defined. Moment I mean I've a neighbor who, as a sign of this, is democracy with you, you must vote for Joe Biden or democracy people die, I mean it's it's so apocalyptic, and I am actually been impressed that that the need soldiers of the world have tried

just kind of trundle along and do their basic job without succumbing to the apocalyptic ism. I trumps rhetoric in running for re election is. There is really no different. I mean that that's the odd part is, he is saying, a vote for me or the these people are going to destroy America, whereas the classic message of a re election campaign is to say, don't you feel better than you did four years ago, which, of course, this Gallup poll that we keep mentioning says you eat, you think you're in better shape than you were. They said all these terrible things about me that weren't true, the economy is in good shape until the pandemic, I've made peace in the Middle EAST. I fought for you

trade deals that out, like their crazy, listen to the way there talking. That was our message right and extend, but he's abandoned just populist appeals right at the populist right is very frustrated without Trump. For now I'm going home things like immigration when trade protectionism. The realignment of the electorate, the working class Super Allison, the this sort of thing that they really hung their hats on. All, in my view, to establish a narrative after he loses that he only lost because he wasn't Donald Trump of twenty sixty fair enough. But what it's interesting, though, because Christine saying they're saying this: is it like this is the right decision she was the Reichstag fire. This election is the end of everything and Trump rather going

What are you crazy like? What are you talking about you? We ve got to tell where this terrible situation with this pandemic in there, but look. This is a great country. You know you, you ve done great work. I've done great work were going on were five or heat rat. He fell into the they prize into that. Yes, exactly a weird way: he never got a reelect message out because he also I meant to say you see, look at the city that we all understand that, like we thought that that was gonna be a more successful message than it appears that it was about their urban unrest in the you know in the summer and and in some sense, going on, even now in Philadelphia last week and all of that

but he made it to be a reassuring voice about how it out it was gonna, be more of the same. If you elected him, not you better pick me because these people are going to ruin the country when they're making a reasonably undismayed civil case that he's ruining, country. So, if you're having a fight on who overhaul ruin the country less, that's not necessarily a good. That's, not a good field to play on what I think we're prior the feel the shape by the pandemic. I think a trump could have made not that he would have, but he could have made something closer to a traditional reelection pitch without the pandemic. Will he evaded? You gotta made it with the pandemic

if he hadn't screwed up his response. The pandemic, I mean you know we go back his high water mark and twenty twenty was March, twenty eight twenty nine thirty as he was as he was in the moment when he taking the pandemic the most seriously and as we if he had been resolute com, tough, you know, focused and not eat up, bouncing all over the place every two days about about how he was responding to it. Not only would he have benefited from a rallying round the flag effect, I think, but the message about how we can't shut the country down. in perpetuity- and we need to make sure that, as we are doing this, we are thinking very hard about how we're gonna get going again and what the circumstances and conditions are that make it possible for us to do so. He would have then been in the cap bird seed. He wasn't in the cap Patsy before then. He was still he was behind Biden by six or seven in the polls. Before

where the pandemic. So you know I don't know I mean I think you're right, that the pandemic up ended things, but it was also an incredible politically was an incredible missed opportunity for him. I think I don't I I have a hard time seeing how he wouldn't have ended up politically regarding the pandemic, where he is one way or another because of him. But let's because of his, nor even had responded differently. Ok, I mean. Obviously this is an, and this is what you were doing, one of those you know, I have sent, you can't might have proven actual is, and your comment will handle the pandemic objectively. Terribly has ever been called out. Or at and continues to be. Lionize for is the objectively terrible performance. So you know who call them out on a vapor. You know look out on it. John mullay me huh This area live America's best, stand up comedian who

His mandala go Google, his monologue because he had this whole rests in the middle, about Cuomo press conferences and about how he was tried to be sound. So tough and resolute Nido all this, and then he would start veering off into crazy. personal territory and its a hilarious riff? And you should really you should really watch it. So we have a couple more clips. I think we ve serve anticipated the Florida clip, but Scott, if you play clip for let's see if it says anything fetch that we could both off of, but if he loses Ford and the first hour, it's not close if he loses Lord in the first hours, not close anywhere right. What we don't know that but I mean all. What we do know is that there is no electoral map. There is no path. what that means. Is that he's we extrapolate a the little bed if the hispanic turn out as uniform as it seems to be innovative and for then

Arizona problem. Ok so We are again as it turns out by the way Trump didn't need Florida, because if you phosphor. That's twenty nine electoral votes off the three hundred and sixty God. He would still one with what two hundred and seventy seven has the biggest. difference, and I got it from twenty sixteen today, its Hispanics are one about trust, the best demographics which No one's really talking about is Donald Trump could lose this at the poles are all right down from. Can this election and do better among Hispanics, an african American Africa, voters than any republic in my lifetime no other way out, because their software should better posted. better among where something about she got doing as double digits among african our computers, no Hispanics attack as well. We got over. You got around forty percent of Hispanics, yet he jumped down from might do that this time around

and he might get double digit with african american voters. If the poles are accurate, reared Joe Biden is doing terribly well and we're Donald Trump has had. The bomb fall out from him is among way voters, not just voters with college degrees. Other that's a no man's land for four down from but white working class voters have begun. Abandoning this president in droves and Democrats are going to face the prospect of having one there, majorities back and when the presidency, the back of white voters, support which will yield to some very interesting political dynamics and twenty one. They will merely turn around and blame men can't wait to promise that we will reach. But I should say we should say

by the way that the only national pole of his bank voters in the last five or six days, which was to tell him one doze, has trumpet thirty. Two were thirty one, something like that, which has only two percentage points higher than brought me. So I don't know that that that's necessarily gonna play out. We are told that he is doing well among hispanic men, but remember some populations are really really hard to really really hard to get right. M Hispanics. Apparently, if you treat them as a unified field, which you shouldn't, because a Cuban has very little in common with a comment as it is, is that they is that they come from spanish speaking countries and they at some point in their wives. People spoke spanish in the house or maybe not even in their lives. So the notion that they form a unified demographic is itself

Here are just a couple of weeks out from farmers. Florida senator Bill Nelson saying outright on the storm. Unreserve unguardedly that border regions are voting for, for us in the numbers of fish are not supporting us in the numbers that they should, and then that was followed shortly thereafter by Jo Buttons Esposito moment where you like, pulled out. That's pacino in this event with them Ricky Martin. Was this really clawing, but pretty much tells you exactly. They are with border regions as a democratic what'd. You want clawing go to Youtube. Google trumps of spanish language television, commercial, because it is some kind of like berserk white fantasy, of what you would want a television commercials for a routine to be it's insane. It sort of like you know Women in colorful dresses dancing like doing the choreography too I like to be in America and then what dancing at a rally serve showing him dancing, and then somebody

A barrier, though I mean I'm, not kidding it's like Mount air. I believe your eyes now. I will say this that people are always can data p boys think, oh, my god. This is gonna like I am using all these cliches is gonna annoy people. You know about that. You believe that the sub group that's being appeal to but get out a Jew people always love ethnic humor about themselves, even though they are not supposed to and Jews love jewish caricatures, and you know why it up black people, love dead, Jimmy J, J Walker in his dynamite and stuff, like that, it's like it's a thing that people enjoy, and so maybe I'm wrong. But if I were of it, if I were a latina ex forests and they would find this thing absolutely jawdropping really baffling but watch it for yourself and determine its. I think it's called letter

those poor trump. I believe, and you can find a new to readers and, like the worst part of all of it, but maybe it's a tat though it might be a taco. That's that's more universal. The breed of this. I thought I was anyway, or maybe it's just a fuck. You know cuban food stand in which the case there wouldn't be barriers or tacos, but our last clip deals with oh hi, o Scott. Can you play that before us. This happen in in Cuyahoga County, where there right now we're told there's a collapse of African Americans Museum for four Hilary, but we Now what that machine is gonna, do on election day We also know that that that all voter registration or vote identification system is such that if you wrote it in the competitive republican, primary and Ohio, then your canvas Republican

so you don't really know whose turning up at the ball. Ok. So this is interesting because this again is, if Biden somehow were, if it's true pussy inside straight and loses in pencil yeah. Let's say it will be because black turn out for Biden cratered or wasn't what it was supposed to be, which is why they, I think in part, why they had Obama in Pennsylvania last week to spur, the early voting and drop it drop off ballot. Voting among african Americans, particularly in Philadelphia else here I really blew about it's interesting, but it's interesting that before you say we blew it look Oh, we had evidence on the day before the election and twenty sixteen black support for Hilary was crater ring and but, and people simply could not fathom that this was true, and so that's why you everybody sobbing on that, you know sobbing, at the Javert Centre. You know thirty six hours

if we were now to get where we had no magical hours to understand that you know there was trouble. There were trouble for you black communities. We only knew that from news stories. That said I argued county is trouble for fur in Ohio was trouble for four Hilary, and I will have seen some news stories worried about this in a couple of states for by anyone gas saying sparingly, embarrassment by not pulling their part of the cliff, but I noted in the piece of photo either before or after that. The part machine. The republican party machine for Donald Trump was not there. Oh hi was Kay six machine and it had very publicly and ostentatiously. determine than it. Wouldn't it wouldn't go all out for four Donald Trump. I think that the national committees would have to do. Would you your tv at state level, and we didn't have very much evidence that down

comes campaign or the committees at that point where especially adroit well funded and done a lot of ground work, and so, if you had to call it just based on them, the lack of on the ground, as opposed to the all the reporting around the Obama machine which had rallied around Hillary Clinton and have managed to pull out two consecutive presidential race has no higher. You had to give it to the democratic machine they're just because it was going to be more active than the Republican One in that didn't materialise in part, because I was from didn't need a GEO tv effort and Ohio, not, though not the kind of new drag people out of their homes and get them pulled operation that have brought about a deployed in twenty twelve- it was purely organic. respond and an bait predicate on genuine enthusiasm, fur for Donald Trump Butchers

Part of the reason why, in the last four years, Ohio has fallen off the map for Democrats, although here we are in the polling average, has it as a tie. A high was a tie trump when it by eight. The higher the Thai tie. So you know again, this tat could be systemic pulling error or it could be registering a search for by, that we are seeing reflected in the polls. For the place that every one you you will not get points for saying. Don't worry, binds gonna win because when's. That's fine. They feel you know, but what's interesting, is just how terrified people are well.

Anne and got even more terrified with a couple of poles over the weekend, particularly one and I love that showed that showed trumped up seven state that there was no reason even to really think until five months ago. That Biden even had was should even be worth thinking about and certainly doesn't have so many collect your votes that it said it. that it matters all that much. But here we are, and we have now well rehearsed are given you are our little flashed back to the day before the election will be will be, coming to you tomorrow? We're not going to talk punditry, we're just gonna talk stories about election days and what happens action days, em in elections with the without, without a veteran republican hand, my old friend Daniel cast and then I guess we'll all just hunker down and see what we

Finally, finally see and, as I said, we will have that life, my blog for you, red and enjoy so with that. Thank you very much Scott ever get freedom for help today and for no one Christine enable John pot hordes keep the camel burning.