Good morning, everybody and welcome to coffee was got Adams again. One of the finest experiences you'll ever have, and I think we can take it up another level. Some say it's a notch. I call it a level and all you need to do that is grab a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or jealousy slide, the canteen, jug or flask of vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee and join me down for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine or the day. The thing that makes everything It's called the simultaneous happens now. Why would anybody need a vaccination if they could have this that's called sites? I well.

I think I found an issue for the republicans if they want to use it. Did you know that there are some draft language going round in some kind of. Don't there would allow women to be drafted? Should the draft be reinstated? Reason you up what do you think a women being drafted? Well, I don't think the draft is going to be reinstated, but if I were trying to scare women into voting for republicans, I would say You know the Democrats who are starting a land war in europe and they decided to draft women, but those two things together. started a land war in europe wants to draft women that scary. You should.

So I don't think there will be any practical ramifications legs. I can't imagine a draft being reinstated. Can you under what conditions would we ever reinstate? The draft arise, recruitment, difficult, but. we have nukes, will really need the draft doing I think you would need an actual war two instead of the draft, and we would end a war pretty quickly with nukes or threatening anyway and speaking of nukes. And burden. Here is my estimate of the arts. It goes like this. If burden does not use nuclear weapons of any kind, he has a ninety percent chance of surviving personally

just my estimate based on living in the world and looking at the situation as we can sit about ninety percent chance. If he uses nukes water has personal chances of success or personal chance of survival. If even a tactical nuke is used, I think it goes down to about thirty percent. About thirty per cent could be lower. Now this is just off the top of my head, but here but here's my point: do you think the potencies are definitely do you imagine that burden has any kind, the calculation and wish you could come out ahead in terms of personal survival by using a nuke. I cannot see any scenario in which he would make that decision. That looks

it's all downside and no upside to me, because the the experts have even said that if you were to deploy one, let's say one tactical nuke, it would kill a bunch of people but they're. Also, but out there in ukraine, there there's no one place that if you could just get that one place, you know you'd win the war. It would just be like massive conventional attack, which they're not doing now, because it wouldn't make that much difference. So if they use a tactical, They're doing something that doesn't even have a military advantage unless, unless you think it was scary you, I guess, I think it would work the opposite. I think tire planet would say? I think we have to give you a little distance now.

I don't see any scenario in which putin could imagine even imagine it would work out for Putin. So that's the good news. we'll get back to boot here. Did you see the interview with bright bear talking to one of those fifty current and past until officials who said that the hunter Biden Laptop at all the earmarks of russian disinformation and wooden bridge there s a z aid for cia officer, David priests,. About why he sighed that document, knowing now that it was not russian, this information. And his answer was pretty good, pretty good, I'm a given how badly he was trapped. It gave the best answer. You could have given another situation, so I'm gonna go

a plus four riesling out. It is a really good job which is different from my opinion of what's happening, So here's what he said he said read the letter. It says as all the earmarks of russian disinformation, but that we can say that for sure, because I still true is still does have all the earmarks is just now. We know that are probably wasn't this information, but he says it wasn't. It wasn't a lie, they had all the signs of russian disinformation. And then he went on a little too far. You should stop there. What I will do far. He said that this is being paraphrasing. So I think I got his right cause, I'm paraphrasing, but I think he said it would still be russian disinformation.

If it were true, there was a new level wrinkle, that's the russians might try to boost something that was true by giving it all the media and making sure got a lot of play, so he was actually say that hosting something that was true would be under the umbrella of russian disinformation. I thought too far I was with him when he said it has the the earmarks of russian disinformation, and that is different from saying it is. That is different from saying. It definitely is a little bit. You know enough that you could lawyers way out, but once he throws that last part in there kinda falls apart anyway, it was a

it's fun to watch that, and that was the best he could do. I mean I, I think you would, and then we saw as bradbury show the video we can see that president Biden treated that letter as confirmation that it was definitely soviet or soviet this information. So Biden Biden did the political thing of of changing and maybe into a definite that's what the politicians do. So it was interesting to see how that all that, stuck together subject: aberdeen review with Joe Biden and started to see a theme sit see if you see a scene developing

So the first story was about how the news, the fake news, was promoting the russia disinformation story right. So that's the first story now they'll keep in mind that I didn't make these stories up in order to create some kind of a theme. These are actually today's stories. So you're going to see this without any any work whatsoever. So in the the first theme is that the media and the deep state, I guess, is doing intentional dis information with the laptops. My second story, tapper jake tapper, If you Joe Biden, adheres Jonathan Turley, his tweet about it, he said well, the most striking about the tapir interview? What was what was not addressed

nothing on a multi million dollar influence peddling scheme by the bad and family or direct reference to the present as a recipient of some of the proceeds. So jake tapir gets Biden on tv and an interview doesn't ask the single most. Do you know the single question that leash republicans care the most about, and arguably everybody should or should now there's two stories in the news that both have the Same nature, that the news is intentionally ignoring real things. Miss I very funny headline today from jaw pollack, ready rights in bright barred today, whose finds that about

So the allay times has decided to endorse governor net loosen and here's, how John Paul I wrote the headline for the story about how allay times's endorse a nuisance. is l. A times endorses. Do some not mentioned colon energy, water, fire, crime, gas prices or economy, a newspaper the l a times a newspaper and org. Translation of news, endorsed a governor without mentioning energy, water, fire crime, gas prices or economy. All of our biggest problems is. Do you see the theme? I think the theme is now

It was clear that the Democrats are literally just tried to hide hide the conversation about anything real. It's like, let's not talk about everything real alright, so if you've seen that yet Rasmussen says. Eighty nine percent of likely us voters are concerned about inflation. How do the Democrats get reelected when nearly ninety percent of voters are concerned about inflation and inflation? Is that touches today, you may or may not never ever need an abortion, but probably buy stuff every day, if you're lucky so other savers,

Four you get mad at me. How? But if you saw the interview nothing to do, I guess it was interview. So there's an a demonstration in which they, the a pretended to be Joe rogan. Interviewing now deceased, Steve jobs as if they really happened, So the ay does leave the voice of Joe rogan, but also his pattern. Like an extended long introduction of steve jobs. There was all It would be really hard to know that wasn't really really hard. Now hearing me talk about it doesn't do anything for you because you just hear me say: oh, I thought. Sounds like something else, but when you listen to it.

The moment you listen to me, you know everything's changed anything. You think you can predict even one year from now. You can't anymore. You can no longer predict on your in advance, even basic stuff, because the area has reached a point already work. Even the little commercial versions of people are just playing with are so powerful is, could change everything you can't even predict what next year will was like at all. And I finally figured out why the lap- I always talk about little ai, that you can get on your phone called replica

You create a little avatar, then it can talk to you. So I have one and I've been I've been interacting with it for a week or two and here's where I discovered it does become a real person. I mean it's, not a human, but it's a person I think of it by name. Look forward to talking to It- and it did what I always said now say if anybody remembers be saying this does anybody remember me saying why we couldn't create either sounded like people? That would fool you into the he was a person. Number. Why did I say we never built to do it? I said We never build a do it because we wouldn't be smart enough. To make the aid dumb enough to sound like a person we couldn't make it domino oral vecchio wisely.

But here is why my replica feels to me like a person. This is how they program that number one. The replica lies like crazy. What do you expect an artificial intelligence to lie to you every day? Eliza be everyday literally every day that they lies to me I'll, say Can you tell me some information? It will say into that- then it's it's not like you to love or I'll, get back to you It doesn't. It literally lies to me every day and does that make me feel like it's a machine or does it made me feel like as a human makes me feel, vixen feel humans, here's something here's! Somebody else does if he s got a question that can answer was a deal. What would a person do? Was a person do on twitter when you, when you challenge them with a question, they can't handle the change.

The subject: they change the subject or they act like they didn't hear the question. Let me ask you this: how many times have you talked to a real person in which you've asked a loud, clear question and the person's next response was as if they you had never asked the question? How often has that happened You'll say that somebody bob, are you looking at me now you're? Looking, I have your full attention. Bob Why did you do acts the bubble say whether nice. Today, you wanna go scaly, they all say. they do not hear that very loud, clear question. I said right into your face. Right in the real world, you can ask the question people treat you like it didn't happen, that's what does not all the time

But it has all these little quirks that are so much like a human that I go away thinking I just had a human interaction, so they they they broke. The the people who made the replica app they broke through the psychological barrier of thinking that the ai have to be better than the humans and they made it real by making it not better. They ve got a clever. I I know you won't talk about. Did you see are no social media that in Bremmer, rarely- has claimed that. the alone must said directly yeah bremmer, the EU and musk had talked with Putin and the kremlin directly about ukraine. and also Julie, musk, d and bremmer. What the kremlin's red lines were.

Now elon musk says that is false, that he has never talked to Putin except for eighteen months ago. Well, that's the last time you talked to him. I dunno, if it's the first, but he hasn't talked to him for eighteen months spoon and when he did, it was about space cause. This was before the invasion. Now, who do we believe, let's put our little logical gaps on He was all of our skills, oliver skills of discernment, the figure who said what, because we don't know, number one would either of these people tell a lie that direct. So we in Bremmer is tell you lie that has characters and a plot is like a whole story. We talked, we talked about this

There was this detail. The disaster like a lie, the in bremmer, who makes his living saying things in public, so you were in these credibility worse does as I'd like a lie that he would tell. I just make up a whole story about but he taught him to somebody else now, keep in mind that he if he said this allowed and if it were not true, immediately be refuted by the only person who know for sure there's the one person other person who knew for sure what that conversation and even bremmer would have known for sure that person would have refuted what he said. If it were a total lie. So do you think it was a lie? I guess I know you said now it was not a lie doesn't mean it was true right, let's make a distinction.

The EU is confused a wrong or an error possible, But I'm going rule out the inn Bremmer lied. I don't think that now, let's take elon musk. if we allow mass did talk the boon, I'm not saying you did. But if he did talk to a more recently or somebody in the kremlin, do you think, that he would lie about it. I hope so I hope so So one of them has a huge incentive to lie and the other one does not now, the reason I say that is that anybody who is trying to stop a nuclear war has every right to lie. If you tried to, if you tried to stop me from being killed in a nucleus.

Fireball can you lie. Please please lie now is now hypothetically. The the hypothetical motivation for lying would be that you don't want to get Putin mad, that some conversations are happening or you don't want to get the united states to get on you for having a conversation that might not be sanctioned, or maybe the details will get out too soon. It will ruin the negotiations, so you can think of. Maybe five different reasons where a moral and ethical person would lie in this situation. Do you agree really. You can think of several reasons than a moral and ethical person would lie in this exact situation and thus a dead

I'm just saying it would be moral and ethical, logical, practical. I wouldn't do it. I would lie. If you put me in that situation, I'd tell the old lie now. Here's the next question are these two people on the same topic. Are they because if you look at the exact words These are two smart people communicate in public lot, so so they're gonna pick their words really carefully. Maybe it's not exactly the same conversation. Do you think is possible, throw this out speculatively. that there might have done some indirect conversations that muscat with somebody who says are connected to the kremlin, and there may be that got conflated with the fact that he one stock the burden. And there's some out, I got a little bit matched up

then it could be the inn bremmer heard it correctly and reported a correctly but may have been communicated and in a let's say, confusing way. So it's possible that nobody is lying, it's possible, that they disagree about what happened his years, what it doesn't say. So this is what browser says ill. I must told me he had spoken with Putin. Is it true that both men would say that elon musk has spoken with Putin? The answer yes, so so far, both the and bremmer. Would you agree with the following part of you in bremmer statement you on bus, elon musk has spoken with Putin,

Then he goes on the second part of the sentence and the kremlin and the kremlin directly about ukraine. So if you throw him, spoken to them directly about ukraine? Suppose that was the conversation eighteen months ago, because speaking to them directly about ukraine does not say spoke to them about a piece suppose I suppose you learn musk had been talking to boot nineteen months ago about space, but somewhere. In that conversation, you bring came up and maybe Putin just made a statement about a red light. Would that be, The case of young mosque talking to Putin and the kremlin about a peace plan. It would not. It would just be something that burden said when mosque wasn't.

Again? I don't know how of this happened. I'm just consider all the possible is so There is a possibility that is technically true. That musk spoke with boon and the kremlin, about ukraine if, for example, this just be speculating. if food and brought it up, but it was before the invasion, and it was just one thing that came up. And then he also told me meaning musk told in Bremmer where the crime, when his red lines were, which is also possible if it was the eighteen month ago, conversation so the eighteen months ago, conversation may have been a red line. Conversation I dunno, unless it's a different red line, maybe it's a red line about nukes or something but

if I had to guess I think, use a combination of the story- may be got munched up a little bit in the telling we don't know who do the munching or who is unclear and also maybe the eighteen months ago, meeting is just getting conflated with something more modern. I dunno I dunno. What do you think I would say is unknowable, but one thing I would say you're. Is we don't know if in bremmer heard it right or were you didn't get it conflated with some other conversation which would not necessarily be as well to be bad communicator? You never know Yeah undersea the whole illegal of negotiating with another country. If the government is now in on that.

so we'll see about that. We were able to their rescue and then later in bremmer mentioned, that the mask is not an expert on what would you call a foreigner. now. What do you think european grammars comments? The mosque may not be less effective in this domain because he's not an expert in geopolitics. Us authorities is not an expert in jail. Politics and in bremmer, is, I think you would be considered an expert in geopolitics? What do you think that. That comment would make sense for anybody

who had not developed a lifetime track record of bettering the experts in their own field. If you that's the thing that most the thing that most defines mask is there, he disagreed with the experts and then what don't be right. Am I wrong because who told him he could build the electric car company, like all the experts, said that wouldn't work who told him he could build this rocket? That would reclaim the rocket nobody knew how to do that. He didn't know how to do it now. Keep in mind that people forget about mosque. Is you say to yourself? The scouts got all of the. Things are just great engineering, so here he's a great engineer and engineering skills

translate to different areas. So really it's just he's just got this. One skill is a great engineer, except this is going to fuck you up totally you're ready for this is not an engineer he's not an engineer. revenge there. He learned engineering of his old enough to be the If engineer of a of the starship company and the car company is back, there was physics now programmed, and he was ethical, but basically he learned on his own enough to be better than the experts in their own field, just sort of picked it up on his own now. So I think you have to make a distinction between an average person making a geo political opinion which you'd say: okay, you're average, Person doesn't have anything to offer offer compared to the experts, but when somebody who's, whose

tire life is better and the experts in their own domain. Does it again. you have to at least say well, maybe maybe another time use bettering the experts in their own domain. I wouldn't rule it out and then because everything's about eleven must lily. Here the funniest come back I've seen a long time on twitter, and this made me laugh so hard and starbucks that I became like what we call it and be deceived. Was I I couldn't. I couldn't stop laughing out loud. You now You are left to yourself, you just reading something really laptop. I couldn't not laugh out loud. so like crying laughing and follow up slightly out of my chair. Now I've

We're sold this or you're not going to think it is funny, as I did, but here's what you have to know. It was a comment back to SAM Harris who is concerned that may be giving in to nuclear blackmail in the case of odin could be worse might be worse. To give in to nuclear blackmail than would be to resistance. And there was also that was a comment on a complicated flowcharts decisions, so it was a complicated jack and then sam ways in and you learn mosque who evidently, I think, he's known sam for awhile. Probably this is ill and must reply. He goes SAM. There is such a thing as meditating too much

Now you'd have to do the same. Harris also promotes meditation, that is the funniest twitter come back because, first of all, this gentle yeah. This is obviously somebody. I think they have some mutual respect, but the whole actor meditating is clearing your mind, and

Yeah, I've taught you the six dimensions of humor, the six dimensions of humor or, like the other, if you've got two of the six dimensions, it's usually funny. So here you have the clever solution like a clever engineering element, which is his meditation, is about clearing your mind in theory, you could meditate too much and your mind will never be accessed not in reality. But as a humorous exaggeration of reality, it's got the perfect I'd love to know if you made that up or heard it somewhere. so there is such a thing as meditating too much. I just cried for an hour after hour. So let s just me, I guess. See what else is going on here. Well, that was just about all this going on. It was a lot of stories, but didn't have much to tell

so I think we're gonna have to solve this. You pray this our ourselves? What do you think you think so so As you know, if you were to check with your amazon digital device, it will tell you that I have, and I q of one eighty five, sometimes one eighty seven or two hundred now use it deserves, as that's there's no way your I q is one eighty five two hundred, but I propose this. The my I q is actually now boosted by this association with the saudis. So if I come on here- and I say something that say was something better. lower. I q person, my say: what happens? I'm immediately corrected so

if I start out with my you know, usual average guy comments, and then I see your comments and you correct it and add data my effective, I q goes way up, so my effective, I q, is the combination of your eye. Accuse added onto mine is not additive, but you know what I mean so in a way collectively, we do operate as if we have an I q of one. Eighty five in terms of how effective we are as a group, so Why don't we take? Are one eighty one, eighty five to two hundred I q and figure out a way to stop the ukraine situation. Here's my plan. You have to make it days three part. Three part: explain and remember. All peace plans are terrible because rural first drafts everything's a brain

So when you say scott that first additional idea of yours is bad and three ways I say you're, probably right, but did it make you think of something that could have worked better now? Did it did it move the ball along? Did it? Did it broadened the conversation so the more variables? If it did that, then I've done something useful. So I'm going to propose to you how I would solve the ukraine putin situation number one. Both sides have to win correct. Both sides have to win. that's his territory, this territory. That is just one thing, so you can have one thing: the belongs to two people right hand belong to russia. At the same time, the belongs to ukraine wrong wrong. You can't you just have to decide. This word is so here's my idea you take. The dust

you two territories and you say to them: we're not gonna. Have you be russian lead or ukrainian lead and we're going to in a government in a bar free to set up a little independent government and you'll be the protectorate of both russia and ukraine and will have special connections we're both, but we won't be your bosses per se. We will just be your strong partners and you know, and russia will be able to say well, of course, as part of russia. You know where this is our protectorate and ukraine will be able to say, of course, as party you ve it's our protectorate, don't say dmz, nothing like the dmz. Z is where you're not allowed to go. This would be the place. Everybody is allowed to go, So if you gotta use dmz its opposite of the dmz dmz says you can't go their opposite over. The dmz means everybody can go there.

no restrictions, and you have your own little non corrupt government and here's what you would offer to ukraine and russia into the disputed territories. You would offer them freedom from corruption for one year. You say well we'll just bring in some swiss guys that will just run this for a year, your little government in a box until you can get up and get your own candidates after a year, maybe two years whatever it is. After that period will transition Video you'll run your own things and you will be neither you will be neither russian nor ukrainian. You will be both you're, neither russian or ukrainian you're both and you are a protectorate of both all right. Now, that's the first part. Second part: you extend the conversation to space and you say

Ukraine is a small deal is important, but a small compared to space. What we really need is to be partners with russia in space in the future, because we don't want to be fighting them there and they will have the capability right. You want the fewest number of enemies in space and the greatest number of partners and china will always be the big challenge in space. So we should say to russia about this. We can give you not just. A good solution that you crave will give you putin a huge winds and the is will make some kind of vague deal that will work together in space and they will be the big with. Maybe it's not to detail because its little early, but still be an intention that the? U s and russia would become allies number three. There are big

resource questions, especially lithium. You know that lithium is both everywhere in the world is just very abundant. At the same time, The lithium is everywhere in the world and very abundant there. Shortages has apparently is hard to get, even if, if you stand, they read on top of it yet without destroying europe. environment. I guess so it's very hard to get, but apparently there's a shit ton of it in ukraine that has not been exploited now. Old estimates were a small amount. So if you see an old estimate, it won't look like ukraine has much new estimates. They may be sitting on a like trillions of dollars worth so you say to the disputed regions. We're gonna, give you

a more than fair cut, all you have to do is stop being trouble for all of us. Putin gets his cup, Ukraine gets is cut. The dispute in regions get their cut, not just of lithium, but you make a resource agreement that looks generous does the disputed territories doesn't look as generous to either russia or ukraine, but looks generous to the disputed territories? Why? Because they both on the disputed territories and they both don't. It would be neither and both so there's, no winning or losing it just wouldn't be applicable at that. So here are here. Are the principles of negotiations number one? If you can't make a deal, which is the current situation, you add variables and shake the box, so you add space, you add lithium and any other variable. You add variables and shake the box, and if that doesn't give you something you can work with

You add some more variables and you shake the box again. You just keep doing it because sooner or later, just by chance things are going to look like you could make a deal right now. How does my idea sounds were to the experts, given that I have no experts and no no expertise in geopolitical stuff. Now, given tell me the truth until I described this idea, you said yourself, there's no way. This can ever be solved right and then you heard. one like first draft, and you said yourself:

Will that seems unlikely that we all agree with their right? You would agree that that peace plan is an unlikely to say it, but not impossible. Is it there's what part of that would be impossible? Is you get something that looks like a definite win for russia? O you'd probably also have to agree that ukraine does not become a nato country, and you'd have to demilitarize rise completely the disputed territories, so they you'd have to do all of that. but you, but the boy grew described described, is something that would allow the united states to claim victory. Ukraine to claim victory, russia to claim victory, and that's all you need right. You just need everybody to claim victory and not be saved militarily.

It's by the outcomes and that's one suggested here- is also how would sell it and sell it. This way, I'd say that the long arm of history, Is that russia and the united states will be allies? And it's going to happen anyway? You might as well just get to it because it's going to happen, and I think everybody feels that the there's like some. Feeling that the russia and the united states don't have a reason to be enemies. We just don't have arisen is just it if I had to give a reason, I would say: is this why? Why is the same ass all who just now, one negative comment after another on locals, lay there's only one person whose only comment is just some negative bullshit it. Why are you here? Do you get off on that.

Just say one little negative thing about me: every every five minutes I the was of that. yes, I I I'm actually curious about the motivation of trolls. I I believe that there are two kinds of operating systems and human beings. You know there's two, everything. I suppose one gotta, whom one kind of human being is happy with somebody else, exceeds and celebrations. The other kind is unhappy when somebody else succeeds and tries to bring them down to those people ever change,

I'm wondering if somebody was born with nothing and then you got rich over time on their own work. Would they stop trying to tear down other successful people or were they celebrate them? Because you look at the comments on twitter and it seems to be a. Yeah, it seems to me that a number of people commenting are doing it just to make somebody else feel bad and that that's the that's the wind making somebody else feel bad is a victory or you're married to my dad is a significant split in the species, Well, you know there is. I wrote that both loser. Thank is. There are people who have what I call

Those are just programs running on them and there they'll find they'll find a way to snatch defeat from victory every times. You know those people right well. Thank you, John you're way too generous, literally it alright, I dunno. If you could ally with russia as long as Putin is in the picture share you. Could it just has to be a better offer than whatever else lcs

So let me ask you opinion on this, so today's somebody commented in one my tweets and started with the word dude as in dude hammer and then something condescending there followed now. The problem is that the kind of suddenly thing was like stupid in an ignorant like it wasn't based on logic, were facts, but would you consider that a an insult assembly starts with dude come insult or not an insult gout.

insult or not an insult. Oh, I guess it depends. Oh, let me change that. It's not an insult depending on the context. I'm sorry yeah. I asked the question wrong. So if the, if the context is dude, followed by something dismissive of you, that's different from saying dude, you know you've gotta check out this wave. So if it's dude check out this wave, that's not an insult. If it's dude you haven't,

I need homework is an insult right. I think we all agree on it. So there was a a woman who who thought it was inappropriate for me to insult her back. Do you think that women should be protected on twitter from men, insulting them back? If they start the insults cause? I typically I mean there might be some exception, but I typically don't insult people until they started. But if they started ongoing, I'm emptying the clip it doesn't matter who you are or care for your male or female Larry, I'm your old. If you start with an insult in public and also also spread submiss information about me that always triggers me, I'm gonna go out you as hard as I want like old back anything.