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versus Biden, we'll discuss all this. The more on this week's edition of the letters Onrush Larry, joint is always by the right. Honourable Charles See, W Cook Jim yeah. Well, so what the Chiefs have Patrick Mohunes? We have SAM Darnel, Geraghty and then a tourist boot de Michael bread. And Dorothy was international. You podcast arse sir. This week are door dash and the dividend CAFE podcast more about them in Of course, if elicited pot gas natural outcome, or do I love, you would be easier for you better for us if you made as part of your feet, at any the streaming services out there from Spotify too I tunes, and if you like what you hear here, please give us a glowing five star review on Itunes. If you don't like what you hear hear here, please forget, I said anything so Amby. Do we have at a Senate trial, going on for two weeks now recording honor Thursday, maybe over late.

Tomorrow, but worthy made of it. So far, I've been in still in the forced emotion, on the side of than the small portion of news addicted liberals who think Adam shifts stay means are going into the record of human oratory alongside Gettysburg address and the most the knees area. So I've been interested in observing that right, because in a way it is as if impeachment is happening within a media bubble rather than in passions of the whole nation as the framers the constitution fought. It would focus the attention of the whole nation,

it seems more like a dead or like up. We can Erin Sorkin play that's beings, I have to say just throwing up on chief, I think so really good you are democracies is not you know what watchers second replied, Hain or anything like that, but you know I think, is ok, it's a chairman, but to beat stand up, serve exposed and have one for move ahead in the pike thing that didn't go well, but stand for two hours and martial all the best arguments for his side too, and aid, as well as clear, there's some coordination going there. Any half measures had has up with democratically ask them, but he he is he is. Really good looking at you strategy, I have to say, he's been competent and better than he was on. The hillside he's been on on the centre has been very good, and we are at the point where the

the new story leaks about the excerpts from John Bolton's book, in which both reports that he was told about the details of the the what he referred to as the drug deal supposedly that redoing on he wanted to run in Ukraine, and that's led to call as for MRS, including John Bolton Buttons book, may be held up because of suits him or is about clasped, find information just basically games that any White House can play with aim an Ex employees book. I think No, the Senate already indicated that the votes are there to block every witnessed. So I don't- let's, what's let's but whose witness, although I would be worried, if I'm the Democrats, because I don't think he is- I dont think his testimony

it's gonna be a slammed on just for the case against Trump. I think I think Bolton could bring some unpredictable moments, one thing to say essays. I am much more damage John Bolton, but I think the impeachment of character that are going on among republican, partisan media, incredibly unfair he's here. I may disagree with him on matters of foreign policy, but he's always serve the country honourably and with a distinguished career, and The idea that he's lying for personal gain is completely against his history. Yesterday s I mean there maybe, as are naturally, is any time you get eyewitness accounts to them there might be a legitimate. He said she sets between and mulvaney and bar about certain? Think? Someone tell me actually that the the New York Times

since apparently chapter is being read to the New York Times report related. They didn't have it in their possession that there's instead than some mistaken version of the bar episodes bars technically right. In his denial least, someone told me that which might be thirty. Fourth, Take for what it's worth but Jim. What have you thought of the proceedings so far you know guys if I said to you on Sunday, Frances go. Forty nine hours will end up winning the Superbowl by a healthy margin over the Kansas City Chiefs, you'd still watched Superbowl, but the drama and the suspense and your level of interested below that lower cause. You know how it ends from the beginning of this process. We ve known how this ends that if we live in a world where the dam, France had sixty five votes, the Senate, or if we knew that there were fifteen republican senators who were likely to vote in o against for the President's removal man we would be riveted by.

We would be watching every single minute and we would be wanting you. We will really be invested in this, because the stakes would be enormous, but we know how to ends up with which we have in a previous bought guest. I went through you're looking at a floor of about forty four and you're. Looking at a ceiling of fifty fifty one vote maybe which makes it really really hard to get to treat this with the the historic importance that were constantly being told this. This needs to be treated with end there, we ve seen just earlier today about witnesses. You don't like unto a twitter exchange. People really believe that this need higher thing could infringe on whether or not we hear from witnesses guys these. Andrews already know what they think they knew what they thought before the process began, whether or not there will you admit it. You you're just knock get your dough twenty republican senators to vote to remove the president had states you could you, but whether they should indeed I'll you can make that argument, but you can make an organ

We are blue in the face. It doesn't change it so when it comes to you know where it where's, whereas the what work, what is worthy of our are focusing our attention on what are you Look the democratic primary, the Democrats, two twenty and twenty presidential race. That's huge! That's whether or not trump remains is poor. All of this is a group. An Dios exercise it in getting people who really can't stand President Trump to make the argument. He should not be president. He should not remain as president- and he should not, you know, should not get into the term. This is all part of it argument, but we all know how to save a very high I'm getting goodness did you here. Did you see shift, my goodness? I need habits, it started embroidered somewhere joy, a friend of mine, said the Adam Schiff gives off the

Actual impression of a motley irritated butler jutting is accurate. I think term Michael's point. The Democrats haven't got they wanted here, yet they thought that the mere active impeaching, the president and setting this train of events in motion would create the grandiose city that it was in a novel. Self grand that it was self generating and it hasn't been another. A number of reasons for that one is that their cases attenuated and difficult to another?

Even though they are correct in describing what can be done- and other is Jim says, is that the Senate Republicans are not going to convict trump and we all know it, and the third is that the Democrats have not conducted themselves in a way that suggest. They really do believe that this is. In inflection. Point in american history can crack kinder up there that the sis I made the only one who thinks us, but to me it So crazy that you invite the press Nice states see you think's going to cheat and the next election has to be removed because such such dire threat to democracy to cod, Addressed a joint session of com, and deliver his day. The union dress and the most majestic setting that we have in the american government you can try to remove them seems like the first step will be where I can invite you right

like you could ve trampled art and I don't have any work up the ladder to removing but that they say there are moving when they passed the? U S, embassy ay and they invite a man, and you have the internet, the usual the customary a pause and each side is something is just not having calendar me too. Can you do Tuesday? I could teach you Why two way with signing the huge bipartisan balances that when data on wednesdays. The state of the union be big ratings problem. Is I don't know how about first we remove you as the biggest threat the republic since it, so it all that in ITALY. That does of course mean that from then do it, and I think that if the Democrats can force witnesses, there's no point going again over whether Nancy Pelosi played its part. She didn't she's put itself in a position in which these rely upon which are common to do she wants. You never want to be in that position, but if she can make the case if the public opinion polls which say that three quarters of Americans want witnesses, can swing

Romney and a few others into acquiescing with the demand for witnesses. This could change. This is probably the most precarious moment for tromp around the Republicans if they can get John Bolton up on that stage,. It may become more of a spectacle. It may seem more serious. We may learn information that is not new, but that coming from somebody, who, despite the best efforts of people such as Lou, Dobbs and others, who pretend John Bolton, some deep state left wing more all is unimpeachable in the eyes of of many and so It has a record that should be respected, irrespective of the merits of his foreign policy. I think that is a little danger here. This is the biggest threat, the Republicans efface, the biggest chance the Democrats have had, but ultimately,

have taken a gamble and it doesn't seem likely to pay off. They believed that public opinion would shift. They thought that it would go from fifty fifty to sixty five. Seventy, it hasn't. I dont know if one has led to the other, but Trump seems more popular, However, in its recent samples. So now we are all waiting to see whether we are even going to get a chance for it to change, and I think that is why my colleague seeing people pretending that this is the most dramatic most incredible thing. They ve ever seen this sum, which cost

now, but realizing that this is probably it they're trying to write the first draft of history so that people who didn't live through it eventually reed how extraordinary Adam chief and his team were when in fact, this whole thing has been something of a damp squib Arguably I mean I think you know when you're looking at this now in weight feels like its dragged out. The winter break and vacation the house, but. And a delay to my mind, a lousy, yeah chains, the dead, the yes, the chosen delay. But to my mind the house rush, there try they they didn't even get. I think sexiest articles impeachment, they could have gotten out of it right I mean if they taken their time. Think they would have had a more persuasive Lee.

Article, removing the ambassador and the love poorness recording worries I get Bertram Bissing get rid of her. I actually think that's probably even stronger than the rough transcript of the phone call that the obstruction article is a joke because, of course, the White House gave them the rough transcript and everything is pretty. And from that the testimony in the house added nothing that we didn't have from the White House. As far as I can see nothing of political substance, so the Democrats haven't me their best case and now we're watching Republicans, making a cruddy case that it was a perfect for Why and being so sitting around the edges? Ted crews yesterday said: can you believe this Chuck Summa guy, inviting as his guest left partners, love policies that lowest of the love he's a word here he's here, because he was trusted by the Trump administration in the first is not as if she took him off the street, but death. That's it shows that we have,

to the pear when it is easily that's right, I mean the budget mean it just shows that even the mediocrity of the partisan passions and hatreds is in. It is impressive right in way right, you have adopted as the most ridiculous thing cruises service coupled is most those when you were hit his position now is that Trump had a duty to investigate together is my investigated, could it be falling down, is present United States seeing this evidence of corruption or not, Mary image of Alan Dashwoods, his peace, become the issue others think this hunt on, though right, because the State Department documents going back to them, the Trump administration before any of this conspiracy. Theory came up was say, as I am sure state public documents about Ukraine have said since the early ninety nineties, corruption

the big issue that we want to see addressed in Ukraine as we deal in a bilaterally with you in the future. So before long coming under these are using a look. It's proof that the that the Trump Administration was concerned about corruption in Ukraine from the beginning cycle mean it's like Otto boxing at this point like we're not even digging into the real debates. It's just like it's just proof texting right Americans dont know what is going on with Ukraine in everyone's taking it on authority. The authority of these early stage partly memos about corruption, Ukraine or Authority of EU official saying that the prosecutor in Ukraine was corrupt courses process.

Associated with the previous regime. The EU and USA just help to overthrow the whole thing that that merkin us to our understanding of the internal politics through which I admit I they understand is leading to a kind of marking is in her own politics in our own understanding of what by who is doing there and what Trump thought was led to believe Biden, we're doing so, Jim, what do you make of it? The Dershowitz comment from Wednesday that drew such widespread condemnation where he basically said he's tried to walk this back a little on Twitter. Subsequently. That present always thinks his election is in the national interest. So if he does anything in furtherance of his election, it can't be properly motivated because either

because he thinks this is something in in the public interest and I have to say, with with Dershowitz he's obviously a really compelling performer. You have this on in the background and Dershowitz is talking, you kind of one stop and listen, and he think, though, that the problem here is as aid teacher and as a author of books in others, serious guy buzz learn how to say anything ways on on the clock, and I think we ve seen that here. I think that the best part of his open the argument which apparently republic sexual quite true. Six by was, he said repeatedly, even if, like even if you accept the facts, why doesn't rise the level and I think that's getting too better and more solid defence, even if I don't don't agree with what Dershowitz as constitutional interpretation. But was just Annie. Mccarthy said repeatedly. You know the best practice

for a lawyer, you make the minimal argument to get your client off. You don't need to go. I can wildly adventurous territory making a maximum most argument of four for how we wooden turbid into the proper, Proper Nasser or not central motive, the way Dershowitz yeah, I think you just summarised the the upside of the downside of having Alan Dershowitz as your defence attorney in any set of circumstances. Besides the fact that he probably makes it a little more likely that you win, but you never quite know what a jury is gonna. Do that. That here in terms of his speech who style and ability to go his audience through the argument he wants to make me moment, they said, join the team like huh. Ok, that's gonna be interesting that he is. You know in front of a jury or up in front of any particular audience. As you said, the theatrical interstate use a great speaker that,

having been said, this is a very circular logic element to what he saying, which is that one thing the president does to secure If his own reelection is in the national interest. Therefore he can do anything you want to pursue his pursuers unreal action. Well, I mean, in this ambitious suggested there is no distinguishing between the president's personal political interest. I want a second term and the national interest, and it's really not that hard to imagine this event diagram that power probably overlap some but not entirely, because otherwise anything the president does can be justifies. Will look, I'm too, of course, of course, broke that rule in order to help my own reelection, I'm trying to help the country by Golly. Why aren't you no understanding of that? I think it's been interesting because less time we shouted. I talked about how I talk to republican Senator, who had been pretty optimistic about three Democrats. Voting no against removal, and one of them was not Diane Feinstein, although currently grandma gets

use these days. So we have to build a more general budget comes out and said something when when she sees what she says, yes, she means now. The other thing to cut it jumps out about that is the dear, that your share your little more discussion about certain Democrats, democratic centres, possibly splitting on the articles of appeasement, the idea that they are convinced this was an abuse of power and trunks should be removed for that, but they're not quite convinced that his actions of let us not cooperating with Congress represent obstruction of Congress. It's a grayer area about where the extension of executive privilege, you know how far goes and where it stops you know, is the Republic democratic centres? Are gonna say this was a rushed sham trial? you gonna go out, you know. Is there no republic? democratic centres are gonna say this was a rushed sham trial. The each man managers never really got a chance to make the case they wandered if it called. If we end up not having witnesses goody be off, if we called witnesses, everything would be totally different, etc, etc.

The back of my mind is a part of this. Is our eye? Fine, let's call the witnesses. You want John Bonham, let's have John Bull, you want hunter bite and let's have, let's do all the guys. You know sorry Bernie, sorry, the list with war sorry I clover and yes, Michael Bennet, is still running or sorry you guys get to go on the campaign trail for the next six weeks. We're gonna hear every one of these witnesses and this things in a dragon, oh by the way. Actually, that might actually do good for the Republican Party. I think american people would get tat, this after another month of the stuff, but in the end- no matter what happens. You're still gonna have people who oppose the president. The Democratic party saying was a sham trial. They never been always no matter how far they go. They're always going to say it was too rushed and didn't take enough time, etc, etc. There so many bad faith arguments being made in this arena, so yo. Dershowitz is probably doing I get he's meeting trumps criteria. Trumped loves to win. Somebody puts on a show, and Dershowitz is doing that. That but said the fact that he's trying to walk back on Twitter is an indicator that he probably recognises he stepped in and on that one

As of this. Our seems as though there they're not gonna, have a vote to hear from witnesses just because the there's little appetite for extending it public inside when, as as was pointed out, the greatest sky and they all know how they're gonna vote, so why are you extend this process which doesn't allow you to do anything else right? You need unanimous consent to get off of impeachment and I'm sure Mitch, Mcconnell every hour that the ticks away well. That could have been time spent at least confirming judge and in the thought, as is just Painful. It is not really good for anyone, so so why extended and it could get messy in any, might not be able to stop it with with Bolton. You can. Certainly he was hunted. Hunter Biden was probably might not be that most edifying

spectacle so looks like you know. Lamar Alexander people focused him on him as swing vote in serious institutionalists, who seems as though he's inclined to think that the best thing the institution it is to put this to bed but Charlie, you, you ve, written extensive notes. So let's hear him, I was just thinking about an adulterous. I think some of it is that he is a consummate defense lawyer and good defense. Lawyers pick holes in the prosecution's case. That's that job so valuable.

Our documents is good at it. It's jarring, though, when the person is also professor, because they have probably at some point written what they believe to be objective II, true, rather than what they believe to be the best arguments. In the moment, most defense was dont, have long paper trials by think it also comes down to dash routes. Is general philosophy. I don't think he he quite sad what he's being used to sing or if he did. I don't think he quite men what I think we saw was a species of the broader argument he has made on indeed believes outside of the Senate floor. That A unimpeachable offence has

to be a high crime and misdemeanor in some formalistic or legal estate sense. Now. The problem with this is that that turns the constitution into a statute which, of course, as a defence lawyer, he wants it in this case. This to be, and it isn't always a statute. There is no list. There is no sub section, highlighting an ad embracing all of the potential things that a president could do. You have to go to a region or public meaning and in the course of making his case that the impeachment power Country B,

used in a particular way and the associated case that to use it in any other way would be to engage in mind reading or to make the criterion policies and behaviour of the president illegal. He has hit upon a bit of a difference between the way that he and saved National Review interprets the constitution night absolutely understand. Dershowitz is general mindset because I share it mostly myself, I am instinctively pro defence lawyer. I am sceptical of authority. I would if I were a politician

routinely vote for, say, men's rare reform so that the government did have to prove its case more thoroughly, but the constitution means something concrete. At least it does, in my view, and merely saying ass Dershowitz doesn't an awful lot of issues while we should be maximizing liberty or we should be maximizing presumption of innocence I don't want to live in a country in which all this particular outcome would be absurd? All the constitution cannot mean that in practice, because if it did, this wouldn't have happened, or this would have happened. I think has pushed him.

To make arguments that don't make a great deal of sense or that he can't help but reduce into absurdity. It is simply not true that the constitution, is as narrow in this errors. He believes it to be. It is simply not true that what Trump did is is legally not rising to the level. It is simply not true that this evidence or that evidence is in. Miserable. It is simply not true that one needs to be a mind reader to prosecute this case against the president. That argument was much better applied to say the supposed obstruction of does that was semi outlined in the Mulder Report and really work here. So I think at what island territories is doing he's getting into trouble with it

is he's combining a further for defence and presumption of innocence, which reaches his credit with a malleable view of a document. That means something and ass a result here. Escaping the guide rails of american society. He's escaping the guide rules of the impeachment pro and he's ending up saying some things that at least to my sound odd. If not, if not a recipe for almost ironically enough, unlimited president, your power, the weird thing about it: how the constitution's player these arguments, I think both sides are a key seeing the others of acting on constitutionally neither side is there just doing things that are either on wise or in trumps case improper, but

I don't see how the democratic impeachment, even though I posted on constitutional or what trumped did in Ukraine is an unconstitutional. Was it a bad exercise of lawful power. Europe mean if they wanted to make a case that he was violating the empowerment act that should have been made in the house and specified in the articles of impeachment theme it over to the house they could have done. They could have made a case that he violated a statute. They refuse to do so so know what this is. This is going to do because this is what I'm so is that there is it. There is a disconnect here between the way the Senate has behaved in the way. The argument, the deserts making Dershowitz is essentially sang. It cannot be the case or it should not be. The case that impeachment is completely open, is purely up to the predictions of the Senate and the house

because if that were the case, it would be unfair now in a statutory context. I would agree with him in his political right and I think in fact many courts would agree with him too. We do strike down laws for vagueness offer over bread, but in this case this is a purely political question and he's house could have included if it wanted to. But that is an argument on the merits. That is a political argument is his job to convince the sentences that that makes this unfair It rather is trying to bring into the debate things that the house could have included if it wanted to, but that is an human on the merits. That is a political argument. It is his job to convince the sentences that that makes this unfair. Not to range into structural arguments that imply that Trump cant do anything wrong, which again is it.

The ironic thing for some like Alan Dershowitz, who does believe in a meaningful sense in the limitation of government power to be arguing. It s a question to you: Gm Clarity, the republican vote to acquit present die. John Tromp eagerly uses middle name on Zan impeachment. As you know, jam will be over time vindicated or discredit really good question I would also like you, say ultimately discredited, but in a really long term. As of this moment to mayor, applicants up everything they see wrapped up in the identity of Trump. I think when trumps presidency ends, whether after four years after eight years, It'll become safe to criticise him again and a bunch Republicans website. Can I liked the policies you did, but man, but boy did he know what could he step in it and make his bond create problems for himself

down. The road Republicans will signal. We didn't really need to defend him that were vocally butter. That's not too, like ten. Twenty thirty years from now shut up, I'm provision is the question whether the impeachment say, will be discredited other value, quitted the republican vote to quit. I see, I think that it will be somewhat neutral. I I think- and maybe this is me hoping- I think- that we are going to not enter into a period in which every president, his impeached, I think the opposite is going to happen. I think we're going to enter into a period in which there is something of a truce on impeachment and I think, with some distance we will look back and see the Clinton impeachment, and this impeachment, as quite similar in that day,

both parties and in nature. They were both essentially an exercise in seizing on the best possible cause. I legal case to impeach somebody that the other side already thought was obviously terrible in every way and both are going to feature acquittals and I think we're going to end up saying this is not how we proceed. The Democrats got one Quintal and Clinton a done. What he was accused of, the Republicans got their acquittal and Trump have done what he was accused of neither probably rise to the level. Let's reserve this, for something serious anybody, I think the short term it will be determined by the election. I think, if Democrats, when the action, there'll be a kind of emerging consent, does that

This, I think, will be wrong, but I think it'll be what the consensus is, that the impeachment helped, or these didn't hurt the effort to remove him just as in a way right, we impeachment, although it seemed to her Republicans in the house, in the polls in the ninety nine? These George W Bush, I will restore honour and dignity to the off to the office. Was a key leinen. He won shortly after I think it will over time be discredited, thirty years from now and deserve revisionist history and people on the centre left the willing to concede that that the house was overly inflamed here, but my Astrid, so this is, if Trump is real

did and commits like a no kidding unimpeachable offence. This will be the democratically other go back. As I say we taught you sell what does he started? Shooting people without tragic war now with Michael, it is true that door. Every bush. When the two thousand election don't write me letters, he did when it, but Bill Clinton would have one at that time. Yeah! That's that's true. All right so that, let's hear more from our first sponsor this week, door dashed or dash has something for every lifestyle on the girl, no time to waste water pick up and by ass. The line having trouble organizing a meal with our you at your friends. We Take it easy with group ordering door ash is more than just delivery door. Dash brings all America's flavour tear doorstep ordering his easy opened. The door dash,

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yeah, so Jim Geraghty, all of us put upon it, should be in Heaven right now, totally obsessed with every single many new cycle and I ought instead most Evelyn. Distracted by impeachment boy do have an extraordinary race going on out there Bernie Sanders ahead and most poles, but in most of them quite narrowly Joe Biden in second and first in at least one recent poll and I kind bunched up with the with the booted edging in war and a step behind clear, that behind now, but within within striking distance and Amy, but you are now rely globally in double digits, and most of the poles. Now that double digit immediately as ten, but I work and can break late in, like literally you know, last twelve hours, seemingly sometimes So you're a squint squint just right,

and she's a cut and contention to. What do you make of it will first of all rituals correct you there hey my senses, that we're having this enormous, historically significant moment of impeachment- and it's not visual impact it. What because everybody is much more interested in the democratic primer? That's actually right, so ok, we'll let you know that when I was out for the coke network, I'm sorry sorry, the shock Holler just went off stand together because their group critical and charitable groups that are only just happen to be connected to Charles Coke and they're, not the coke network anymore. I don't think you're getting invited next year. They also there really very nice people got tasted a lot less. This year I was allowed to use. The bathroom unattended was fantastic, not very nice people out there, but there were not a lot of hoarders there and usually get anywhere from you know it's about a dozen of them most ever had twenty an ethic. Where is everybody in this advisory bodies out an IRA now? The great irony, of course, is that their debts-

candidates were not out in. I look as they're all stuck in Washington Fora for the impeachment process. Both Buddha Judge and Biden were both up in the Boston in New Hampshire, So what about the my I had formulating last week was that yet that at least the top for are going to come out of a dual pretty well right. Now that fifteen percent threshold for delegates Bernie. Well ahead of it now think of anything birdies having a really good week. I think we can say that you know Elizabeth Warren's, you won't believe what Bernie said to me two and a half years ago that that report before the hour debate really didn't do much damage to him at all. Who tend to see a little bit of of congealing or on the top candidates edit this run this time people begin to realise that they don't throw their vote away, they wanna they want their vote to manage the matter. The most sanders right now we say, he's probably the guy who is most likely to win but bind US

go to bad and back to the Monmouth poll. Had him ahead Biden's not going to come out of this looking too bad and it's a bit. The third and fourth place folks right now, if you put it at Jen and Warren they're, going to be above that fifteen percent threshold in the not going to give that behind your probably looking at somebody, the high twenties, I then somebody the mid twenties and then somebody to projects in the high teens, which is not a bad shake out for any those too for it is even now and now, if worn a buddhist edge, their third and fourth there that meets that beginning the end. I think it complicates their lives, a great deal and the core is that a close third or that a distant third and again, if club, which are really does get above, that that fifteen percent than maybe there's not enough percentage points to go around. About using, which is worth keeping in mind here is that at the carcass everybody shows up, and if you are one of the few, who says I really love Andrew Yang or M, John Delaney or or agenda It is my brother in law, or I am one of the few people in america-

remembers that Michael Bennett is running for President Elect to support him. If you'll get fifteen percent your caucus location, then you can either join one of the candidates who did get above that fifteen percent threshold or go home. So there's a chunk of people out there who have some sort of free press. For one of these minor candidates and they have to reallocate themselves, and so somebody who's your right. It that you know thirteen percent threshold cobra targeted at help getting YO if she's closer, but I'm ok, I'm not in that category. That having been said for them by the sciences that therefore tickets out of Iowa, maybe only three closely or maybe even if she gets that fifty percent threshold he gets to go on. If she doesn't, I think you'll hear people saying. Ok, it's been nice, it's fun, but you're gonna go said Jimmy you're, not you not in it. The studio know it but ambitious is by giving these these

that, to me hand gestures at all during during your speech here as it is on the edge of a sea. Niece he's has re lab, tells me Gabert is also running for president. You know anybody. I think. You're going to see, I think we're seeing the emergence of the burning Biden Primary and that these are becoming only two candidates that matter I mean neat silver wrote I think today or yesterday that you know things close enough that you know any closer. Winning I were primaries is likely as Brett far throwing an interception on anyone pass, which well which seem likely insanely high, I think,

my view generally, is that primary contests don't matter after the first three or four the winners are established early right, I mean into twelve, you had people like drawn huntsmen, arguing that a third place vision in New Hampshire is a ticket to South Carolina. It wasn't and even seem tourism just hanging in the Riis. Really wasn't that serious challenger to Mitt Romney, I think you're. I think that unpredictable thing is, if a number of Anti sanders. Democrats can ah and coalescing behind and any closer or something like that in those caucus rooms that that could be a surprise as I have a feeling know that people

when we get these rooms and they're gonna see. Ok, I can here for Yang, where I came here for seek some this anti establishment, but the only as anti establishment. Person I have it's gonna be above. Fifteen percent is Bernie Sanders. They're gonna end up its with Sanders I think both judge and closure and others are condemned, bleed increase. We'd abiden and we're just gonna- emerge with Burma in Biden is the two options and I think burning could come out like wait. Had me, don't think. That's crazy I can look at warm pole. She's a fifteen percent state wide, that's she's missing a lot of prison. So you're under the constitution she gets to combine had heard over. They met with no time endorsed in it I mean in there's a possibly. If Biden does win if he eke out a win which is possible, he will get like a momentum of like surprise winner in Iowa right

and then everyone will look up and say well he's leading nationally in all the pass as working time. So that's why I just think it's going to be self reinforcing, It's a very clear debate, one side to the left, one side, the centre- and if you end, if, if you want the centre, you'd better, be with by running in so I just. I just think this is it. This is the debate as clarifying you have two leaders of two arguments for what direction the party should go in, to be trump- and I can I just they gonna- take us out. A good judge needs to win Iowa unless, like it's a club, second and binds fourth or something, and he he has some claim perhaps dominate that laying going that seems very, unlike seems only future. Why said last week- and I said if Bernie does, when eyewear or possibly when I was in New Hampshire, that's going to be a backlash at that point and voters will respect.

But what they eventually decide wonder allowed. Whether this is a good idea. The question is: will they if they do that? If I am right, Will they then coalesced around one person, Chris Haze back in two thousand fifteen, used to say that the Trump takeover of the Republican Party that was happening was the product of the Republicans underlying lots of fear and what he meant by that was that the Republicans in their primary had a collective action problem. Nobody wanted to be the person who left who dropped out, gave up their dream in order to help get rid of trump, and this was because Republicans selfish as they believe in free markets and in

visuals. So I know I remember thinking at the time. So this was absolute nonsense, motivated reasoning, post rationalization and that's human nature and ambition are mutable. The question is: who is right? I suppose me all Democrats, just us ambitious as Republicans Chris Haze Democrats have something different in them and we will see it is possible. I suppose that Bernie Sanders wins. I were, and maybe Wednesday, Hampshire come second and the the candidates all get together and say you know what we just don't want this guy. Let's pick one that's not just in the room, in Nevada has to discussing. But let's pick one of us

the standard bear the non Bernie candidate, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, people to judge Amy Clover charm. I just don't see that happening, they all want. President they're all ambitious, that's important, but also they all have slightly different political views. I didn't think Elizabeth Warren is going to be thrilled by the idea of getting rid of Bernie per se because in some sense, issues close to burning with issues pretended to be or not so I don't know how many tickets there are out are not good enough. Election analysts interpret that the data and I never saw breakfast play, but I do know that at the moment it

good for Bernie, because not only is he rising in the ports, not only is there a considerable chance that he will win the first two states or do well enough in the first two states to be the front runner, but there seems to be no obvious collective action. That can be taken to stop him, even though I believe there will be in an anti moment now just to qualify. That, of course, doesn't mean that, but he's gonna win, because maybe the voters say afterwards. You know the other viable, that here is Joe Biden. That's who we like. Everyone else falls when it becomes the Bernie Biden race, but I I just wonder at them whether it is shaping up to be one of those situation, in which Bernie said traddles along through thick and thin ends up with thirty five percent of the vote at the convention and come be stripped of its result

Yes, it is shocking if you know, if you got mixed results, on the entire Bernie side for a while, and then you run into Michael Briggs Wall of money on Super Tuesday, because then your base is it ok? If you want an entire Bernie coalition, you have to go with eight another candidate besides Ernie, who was never held office as a Democrat right right. That would be shocking. As I saw a great tweet, Nay said it's exciting. This democratic primary will soon find out whether the seventy seven you're out of the seventy eight year old white guys will win or whether the other seventy eight road white guy will sweep at bath, and I mean Sir, GM honour what he saw the add there is a superpower that popped up and dropped and Adam Bernie in and Iowa as why these very M, unimaginative kind of cookie cutter adds that has

Man and woman in the street interviews, worrying about Bernie, select ability and then one whether people, pops involved in any just had a heart attack and adjust. Just strikes me that you know that kind of stuff is try to get, dropped you know and when he got out of the gate, strong and didn't really get much traction Bernie in response to this add raised one point: three million hours in the day, which is One reason no one. It had tried this before said the child pointed the Bernie, gets it had esteem there. There can be an enormous reaction, only about about fifty percent of that there is as near transport within the last week. Shut about fifty percent of democratic parties, they define and moderate late about. Fifty percent was more progressive Canada. But a Bernie wins the first to you get you get that confirmation. Of of your viability and your

debility by the mere very fact winning so just stop Bernie campaign, I think, is going to be difficult, especially If it ends up, you know, Biden and tatters and having to turn them my Bloomberg. I just I know that some scenario Eve you folks down from the beginning, but it just doesn't seem very likely to me yet one of things that its Connemara marvelling at is that we ve been through a very similar scenario. For years ago, Bernie came within a couple of coin tosses of winning IRA, and then he went into New Hampshire. Just kick Hilary is bought up and down the state with sixty forty split in that one. So then, arabic where we ve, just maybe histories repeat itself, is, as you know, two cycles and make your spanned were. Hillary Clinton is gonna fumble away the nomination to this little known opponent and

He also held his own in Nevada. Thing was fifty two to forty seven in his invert. But then South Carolina happened ran. She beat him biogas. Three two one margin barring of now people say, though ACT I mentioned, is to people like those o. Joe Biden, isn't anywhere a strong candidate, as Hillary Clinton is maybe I'm just not used to hearing people say. Hillary Clinton is a strong candidate in any context, but this year these I agree is that he is which the play more or less the same role. She was, which is the establishment choice, and I think that sort of the default choice the most familiar choice. As I've said, Joe Biden has serious. You know what you're gettin may not love em, but you ll eat at any time yet, and so you tickly, amongst you, know african american voters, you look back at the twenty. Sixteen primary Bernie Sanders Jessica shall lie,

ACT in southern state after southern states. As long as Joe Biden does well amongst southern Democrats and African Americans and easy to hold those together, he's gonna, hey, that's how ill gotten got that advantage in terms of delegates and how she kept adding to it and keeping to it. Centres was ok in the MID West, but he was winning by liking or fifty five. Forty five sixty forty splits and she kept winning seventy five twenty five splits all throughout the south in her delicately just kept building and buildings. I think that scenario right now. If you said to me, which one is what that's probably the most likely he's gonna go to the very end and have a very respectable pile of delegates when all is said and done, but I think in the end I still think button is the more likely already in one question about whether the you want the more progressive or the more moderate candidate is that Bernie has the slight advantage of being a little bit of both, and he says, he's a socialist

he's far out, laugh and economics he's promising revolutionists promising increase taxes on the middle class, but he's not woke he's not woke. I mean Ozma to be Elizabeth. Worn came out today and said that. She would let a Trans child veto. Her pick for Secretary of Education. Having our that work, I know even understand how that works, but it's something that drives, assert, have to survey every Trans child, and I know I don't think you're gonna pick like. Oh, she was going to have one. Particular young trans person interview her nominee for Secretary asian and given up or down choice. We like that is all that bad

sanders doesn't say stuff like out our centre, Michael that this is. This is a crazy idea before you even get to the end of it. Right in this other candidate, says. I'm going to let somebody veto. My choice for my cabinet is present. That in and of itself is bizarre, especially for a candidate MRS to root out corruption and you say, oh so, you're not going to choose your own cabinet. Now. I'm gonna outsource that our Hutu a child right was a second step, this a little bit where you're gonna out source the choice of your cabinet to a child, that's right to what sort of child a Trans One, but you can see how get there. How do you actually how'd? You even start down that road. That loan finish so but there's a thing is burning, doesn't say stuff like that and Bernie his his speech patterns, his cultural reference thereof an older America, that older, less woke Americans are more comfortable with. So I think he can

get a larger share of that moderate sentiment. That's not available to pee Buddha judge is not available to Elizabeth, I think that this I think, they're there, maybe something that. There be more to that. If the previous versions of Bernie still plied so highly rated by the Un Array and was still they're saying immigration hurts american worker. Yes, so he's! up some of that year. He has given up some of the nets. That is to his detriment, but, like I said, I think he comes across as less culturally threatening to kind of moderate, suburban Democrat, I've talked about this. It's a line alive. How socialist now in some some ways or more reasonable than the road they left. You can do it's in the debate. I related identity. I oughta in project right so learning would have been with the world's socialist website and the historians on that, because he thinks classes the defining characteristic and all of the other democratic candidates, with the exception of Joe Biden, although he does Pandora little bit, would have been within Europe

So ass, a question to you, Jim you can be. The first put panel line here can predict, with Extreme precision suddenly won through five finishers in Iowa Monday night skip the percentage points. To quote Chevy Chase. As Gerald Ford is my understanding, there be no math involved and I could pretty well go above. One hundred percent at Bernie Sanders wins with something like twenty seven, twenty eight percent, something in that range jobs it is only a couple percentage points behind em, like twenty four twenty three somewhere there bide into saying he's a real win, the one which will work well for binding. The scenario is New Hampshire hates to validate. I was choice. You got what we ve done. Nash, review events up there, never loves to say stuff like I'll pick score new Hampshire.

Its president's the rest of us, like, hey, worthy other forty, eight states. We were tired of you guys get the first back, but Zobeide might be well position for New Hampshire there. Let's say nineteen percent boot judge, seven percent Warren and, let's I'll be kind and generous. Let's say: Michelob gets above that delicate threshold line at fifteen percent, and so all them think they're gone on after this, it does began to wipe quickly become perceived as a ah Ernie, invite and re. So when I say therefore, tickets out of enemy, we'll keep campaigning and I'll keep running. My guess is that you know New Hampshire finishes off two of those three, if not all three of us of the the trailing candidates Chalciope Cook, so obviously tells you got a landslide runs all the way to the presidency and appoints Michael Sector education without any kind of children for everyone.

He wins it by four or five points followed by Biden and then five points behind Biden is Warren couple of points behind war and his boot. A judge and Amy. Clever cha disappoints with maybe seven or eight percent. Bernie thirty four Biden, twenty nine judge, Morin scrambling between fifteen and eighteen and then everyone else off off the the when will the chart. So if we are predicting which we are Bernie, one to Biden, doesn't that's not gonna happen, we're not gonna happen, but I, but this this juncture, thou, be my election as well Bernie, one Biden too, there's gonna, be some surprise. My surprise club, which our three and. Buddha Judge and Warren four and five and

You know Bernie earns fifth. Yet what fifth Bernie Bernie WAR and and and Biden and booted edge, they Yang Yang gangs in and the higher one of them goes a lower, the other, the other girls. So I am I'm with Michael pretty high numbers for Bernie and by which means you need me doc, knock down those too. Parts, but will no more in just a couple of days, so before I move on? Let's hear from other spots This week the dividend CAFE podcast I have so many options for engaging political podcast, even just within national circle, of high quality park, ass content. But where does one go what concise practical the hard hitting investment compter in the pot. Guess, world look no further than the dividend CAFE the Dividend CAFE podcast at you! Anybody! That's all right! Do boss he's not gonna! Forgive you, though, interrupting

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and sound money check out dividend cafe dot com for look, one was thoughtful critically claim investment compters out there and sign up for the dividend cafe podcast for ongoing else, with trade war, the election, the FED and so much more. That's dividend cafe for no nonsense: economic compter from the bonds and group, your antidote to the thoughtless, an laziness of today's financial adviser population. So before I leave this week's ep this the let's hit a few other. Item so Jim the joys of flying with the parents of the world you smoke is There's some new memo at National Review, rich that we leave off the second half of words to save time. Anyway, this ep of this pod. I took a flood affected, a flight to us

I'm springs for the cook meeting last weekend in a coffin cross countries never fond. Never that easy. But you know you just go you deal with it. It's not that bad and the way back, surprise, surprise flying back to San Francisco insert poop in the streets, Joe here in others. If there is a delay, The flight coming in was late. There was fog in San Francisco, it happens. I have about an hour and a half an hour and change for my transition between the flights. So much better. Go up to the gate. Make sure there's enough time for me to still make that second flight and in front of me As a woman who, apparently the online slang term, is current, that's your name is Karen or if your wife's name is Karen or your girlfriend, or so your sister someone you care about is named Karen. If I buy apologise in advance, I didn't pick up this online slang term, but we all know who carries Karen is the woman who demands to see a manager? Karen

the man whose very important current demand was very upset at expects you to start with inheritance, become a man now care about what Turley, who you to judge. Who you are properly assess. The charter is not can be Elizabeth warns. Education. Very I got out of the running already Laurens occur in me, a bit of a busybody Aurelia, so the woman in front of me looks like a cross between Elizabeth Warrant, an enclosure, and she is basically decided that this this flight is is. It is unacceptable that this delay in the floor. Is an acceptable, not look. We ve all been their instincts, you're you're, worried about making your connection. They either we vote. We all sympathise, but she just taking it out. Woman behind the counter at the gate and it's nothing. This woman can do about it. She's gonna try to get on a different flight if she ends up missing the connection, but this woman, poor Karen, keeps emphasising. I have three hundred and fifty thousand frequent flyer miles at I'm. Holding my type thing it out, like this, a sense of like men

The fog doesn't care. He felt that the amount, no matter how it whatever gold elites diamond emerald status. You have does not change the fact that there is no plain out there for you to get onto and you can't get onto it until the plane gets here. So I'm gonna chuckling to myself, and I make one or two smirky tweets about it, but hey you know it will deal with these help, people all the time, no she's on the flight. Next to me, she sitting x ray of light and she vanished ago, on eight of the very short version she's a very long, loud chat, but someone she's very upset about the possibility of not making your connection she's talking, stalking the flight attendant like man, I'm sorry did get off your phone. We closed the door. She just one minute. One minute knife seen people get pulled off of lights. Police people have said that they can be very top on this sort of thing. She left it. If you just keep chatting, she just keep shouting, then the guy behind me restarting your be ignored we rode get off your phone as poor guy behind me is travelling with H, small child, his wife and a dog. I am sure this guy has had a heck of a lot of stuff.

Before it gets onto this flights and he's just looking for somebody to take it out on and fold woman Karen behind beside me is just a very convenient target for all of that, pent up frustration and anger. Why is this something lighter fuel? For once? There was some people freaking out in public, and it wasn't me. Yes, there are delays, people who are in charge of light. Generally doing the best they can does nothing. They can do about the weather. It's a small miracle that flights get us from one place to another safely and relatively comfortably. For you know every time so am I gonna enjoyed the fact for once I was not the one was freaking out unstressed and a recognition that hey. You know what you know. Every every delayed flight is perhaps a little lesson to us to slow down in life, Ah Jim. What is it? What a nice sermon at their loud anybody, you ve been watching only God, forgive yeah. So the director Nicholas whining rough, became really hot about nine years ago, when you put up this movie, starring Rang Gosling called Drive, which is a very grip, being weird thriller

no, I weird says like five lines home every year, scorpion on the back and Julia. I think them. He's mesmerizing an awesome, so I try I'd on Netflix little violent. Yes, only God forgives which has Rhine Gosling, as I do dealer running a front. My tie boxing operation in Thailand and formally The movie is brilliant, as far as against its actual direction. The widening the framing of every shot, an Still the worst film I've. Ever seen in my life binding maximum amount of pretension by the filmmaker with a maximum amount, vulgarity and just its

it's just it's so horrible. I couldn't stop watching it anyway. Just that's recommendation is that if you were in the mood for a movie, that is both discuss, moiling, we here and here in the chamber, is only God. Forgive by Nicholas, whining reckon. It is song. Shang, like this weird meditation, unlike care stray Shin attend if it is so insane. I just wanna put out like the popular will astonishing. I couldn't stop watching light items to try out of This is more uplifting even eating it. I toys. I tell YA restaurant areas area. Sorry, it spoke raw matter. It's not your fault.

This is an italian restaurants as early I dismiss read it, but to throw us or, under the bicycle, being comparable. Sir. I went to areas I had never heard of it until three days ago, of course, when I told people Essen and they set out it is I pretended that I had I ate. It said a talent, restaurant up anything. Eighty, six and second, absolutely fantastic great. I'm sphere accept food. I subsequently learnt that it's quite famous and apparently celebrities used to hang out there the guy you earlier died recently, which aside, but the restaurant hasn't lost it not that I have before, but it was terrific I've heard these light as it is today. Gonna write convincing me of this with their light items I didn't go

Sarah, weird weak or gay Samantha says correction. I it was nice to have a good time So I discover recently this hobby shop in New York called there. The red caboose, which is really extraordinary play, One of the great advantages of New York still has the density too of these, can a niche retail outfits just narrow I'll after narrow I'll stack too, that the gills from floor to ceiling with every kind of a modeling train, plain boss, military vehicle related item. You could possibly ever want the proprietor. There is exactly, as you would expect kind of out of a movie sitting behind. The counter and knows everything about any these proud especially the train. So ever in midtown Manhattan,

and you have an interest in how being you should go check it out so before we Finish this ep of this pod GM varieties, time for editors picks and what is yours, Jim there? A lot of good selection serves this past week, but I went with Kyle Smith's it's just a small at day which ran yesterday January, twenty ninth, and he points out. It was one year ago, Jesse Small. It went to the police with his story about me. Guys had gone up in, and you know, poured bleach on em and put a noose around them and said you know it's. This Chicago is magua country. You know I, which, oh by the way, just have to be the coldest night in Chicago and many many years and that you know Kyle makes frizzled. If you know how often these giant brouhaha controversies come and then they go analogous summer thunderstorm with their very intense and then they Paso they move along quickly and there's no real, lasting impact and Kyle doesn't want us to forget this

he wants us not just to forget. You know boy, what's with Jesse Smollett Boys and a kind of a cynical exploitation of racial division in politics in our country, but also can recognize you Remember who got this right and who got this wrong? Then he points out the number of New York Times CNN Abc News washed Impose CBS Nbc. All of ran it as just a small attacked in Chicago the Chicago papers. Yoga. We were a little bit more see. Logo small claims assault in Chicago they. They remembered of Nicaragua police for investing report of assault on empire actor, Jesse smaller, and he points out that the tone in their local coverage in Chicago was way more sceptical because to a lot of people in Chicago I just didn't add up, whereas I supposed to the national institutions, national media institutions are now Chicago's full of you know: crazy, violent rednecks who like like to go round and hunt down up and who recognise Jesse Smollett from Empire President's anything. Muggah fans love its empire.

On Fox I week that soldiers ay a good reminder of the bad habits of the media and how the really hasn't been nearly enough. Accountability for the mistakes were made in the reporting of these doors. Try monsieur pick pink caused bank that an annual tradition celebrate what taken off next year. Maybe too. We got turning to Jesse smaller they. Now it s a small at day off, don't celebrate all them, but we can have this went into the mix. I liked Michael Brendan, daddy or rather his piece on breaks it. I like Michael's coverage of breaks it partly because he Billy

as I do that this is a monumental moment for human freedom and self government, and partly because he is ass, appalled by the people who were trying to undermine it ass? I am, and some of those people are attempting to rewrite the story here. It is, of course, true that politicians lie and politicians wound both sides and people who were in favour of bricks. It light and embellished and behaved as politicians do This Michael points out this really paled in comparison to the sheer scale of the lying and the doomsday prediction that we saw from people who still have not accepted and admitted The world did not end. The world is not going to end and that there is far more rational about the people who want it, breaks it and are celebrating breaks. It then, is being allowed

ambiguous your pic. So I stole this one from Charlie cause. He recommended it to me it was brought. Alan. An art historian wrote this beautiful piece. Our national view about art showing a true picture of american history. Then the six he nineteen project, he reviews for different nineteenth century pain things that involve african american subjects and kind of goes through what is shown in depicted and the attitudes of the artists and me audiences towards these figures. And it's just a tour de force of peace and it's a great way of engaging the story of our country.

To my pick is Anti Mccarthy's peace. After the bolt book leak came out, titled Bolton blows up trump teams for hardy quid pro quo defence, just goes to why Andy is so valuable, not just as knowledge, not his analytical acuity. It is his willingness to all the time, call them the way he seized and he's been arguing for ever that Idiotic, for the White House and defenders to try to defend the indefensible and say that there wasn't a quid pro quo and they all the Bolton fractious is just indication that they all would have been really well serve to have taken is vice longing So that's it for us even listening to a national view. Pod cast a re broadcast retransmission recounted game without it, press written permission.

True magazine strictly prohibited. This podcast has been produced by the aforementioned incomparable, Sir Sherry, who makes a sound better than we deserve. Thank choice. Thank Jim Thankee, Michael door dash and a dividend cafe, and thanks specially to. If a listening, we are the editors you