From cafe and the vocs media podcast network, welcome to stay to humphrey bernard. I actually think there's something over debate or conversation going on inside Israel inside the government and, more broadly, within israeli society, about what the devil Action is of all of winning here. What the word our should be. That's richard house, a veteran diplomat he is currently president emeritus of the council on foreign relations after having let the non partisan think tank for two decades As the author of over a dozen books, including his most recent, the bill of obligations, the ten have of good citizens after serving in the? U s. Defence and state department has played a pivotal role in negotiating a monumental peace treaty in northern ireland and twenty thirteen, this earned him the tipperary, international peace or war.

Has joins me to discuss Israel, Hammas war and the potential pass to a resolution. That's coming up stay tuned. Support for the show comes from the national women's law centre, courts and public policy are key, battleground, for gender justice, and that's where you can find the now no women's law centre working tirelessly to create change for over fifty years, The national women's law centre has fought and won for women and for all of us for protecting pregnant workers to fighting for equal pay and ending harassment and violence dedicated to shaping our democracy and future for the better, join them by this

end of EU elsie dot. Org support for the show comes from plaque in libya was like the financial system, but different, care. Where you come from what you look like you're credit score or your outrageous food delivery habits ripped out was finance for everyone everywhere. All the time racket see what crypto can be, not investment advice, crypto trading involves risk of loss, repair, currency services. Provided a? U s in: u s: territory, customers by heyward ventures, incorporated gps disclosures at crack and outcomes. Legal, slash disclosures! Now, let's get to your questions. This question comes in an email from mark who writes dear pre. It has come to light. the former president from predictably violated the limited gag order imposed by judge in goran and october. Third, in the civil fraud case, recent reporting has shown that a five thousand dollar fine was imposed. Where was too

covered the trumps campaign website continued to post disparaging accusations about one of judge and groans law clerks. Why did it take the court almost three weeks to make this discovery? Doesn't this failure of oversight, undermine public confidence in the rule of law, going forward in a swift and competent manner, As always, I love your show and appreciate the weekly education than I lay person receive about many facets of the law that would otherwise remain unclear. Many thanks mark will not thank you for your well crafted in reasonable question or or set of questions. So people may remember that the judge was very unhappy. The disparaging material about one of his court staff, was posted on social and he demanded in connection with limited gag order that no such postings should remain out the trumpet his team took down the post from social media, but left it up on their campaign website. Ask your question: why did it take them? three weeks to make the discovery I dont know some really the quarters. possibility necessarily to be checking all the play.

in which something that was contrary to a twin order, might still exist and should be taken down. That's the responsibility about trumpets responsibility of his lawyers. Its responsibility of his team This next question is also about a gag order, but a different gag order. It's hard to keep track of all these things. You know there are four criminal cases against donald trump. There are multiple what cases against donald trump and there also It were paying attention to the statistics to gag orders pending against donald trump as well. This question comes from reno, who asks hybrid? Can you explain why judge chuck and temporary we froze her gag order on trump. How does that work? So you recall just to keep the straight judge. Lookin presides over the matter handing the district of columbia, the criminal case brought my jack smith, a special council addio j incorrect well january sixth annual recall in that case that there was, heated discussion. Court proceeding in which the judge was talking about issuing a limited gag order about what down from couldn't could not say in the lead up to that trial.

So just took and does not want witnesses to be intimidated, essentially and try to come with a somewhat difficult balance of donald trump can and cannot say going forward so as not to prejudice the public order, Many witnesses in the problem without is it's complicated, social I love to criticise or attack witnesses. Potential witnesses at the trial, but it turns out the potential witnesses a trial is my pants. Who is that The potential witnessed a trial, but also an adult trumps adversaries, so that becomes complex she's, also drawn somewhat fine line in other aspects as well. In a limited gag order to chicken said donald trump, Canada jack smith in criticising disparage disparaged blacksmith but can criticise. To some degree the department of justice for which jack psmith work. So it's quite a balancing act is difficult. It's complicated. It has to take into account near the first amendment, rights of a person who is running for president probably going to get the nomination on the republican side he's trying to have a fair trial in timid, and free. So what's the reason for it

freeze. The reason for the freeze or the pause is that the trump team, as is its right, has appeal the gag order to the deasey circuit court of appeals and has asked the court to instructions court to pause and wait until the higher court. The court of appeals makes a decision so in a given what is at stake, given the nature of the dispute, given the fact that there is an appeal pending at the higher court, I think it was a judicious and proper thing to do for your chicken too. As you have said, to temporarily freeze the gap, and will see what the circuit court of appeals has to say, but I expect some version of a gag order to remain in place. It may be modified. It may be altered to some degree, even though its a complicated thing to do, given the circumstances, as I have described, the probably some version of a gag order will survive and they will go into effect. Most likely have DC circuit court makes its decision I'll, be right. Back with my conversation with richard house,

support for the show comes from the national women's law centre. The courts and congress are key battle grounds for gender, just and that's where you can find the national women's law centre working tirelessly to create change for over. Fifty years, the national women's law center, has fought and won for women, and All of us like when they instituted protections for pregnant workers by securing fair treatment laws in several states along the east coast or when they helped push through a presidential executive order that resulted in higher pay for federal contractors and state minimum wage workers. or in twenty twenty one when they led the way for a more equitable judiciary but

hoarding more women of color appointees. That's just the tip of the iceberg of the critical work the national women's law centre has done, and you too can support their efforts there, a leading force in advocacy for women and girls in the? U s striving to create a better country for the next generation and dedicate to shaping our democracy and future for the better, learn more and show your support by visiting and w elsie dot. Org the support for stay tune comes from mint mobile. Your wireless bill stinks. I don't even have to ask you what you pay each month. I can pretty much guarantee that it's too much and you're, probably thinking okay, great, that's great, but this company is the only game in town. Here's the thing now you're, not stuck admit mobile, might be a way out of overpaying for your phone plan. Mobile offers. Unlimited talk, text and high speed data

delivered on the nations largest five g network, all for fifteen dollars a month. You can hold onto your existing number and current phone, which make Switching a lot easier than you might have imagined you can set up your land entirely online and experienced the relief that comes from leaving the big, inflexible wireless providers behind premium wireless service at fair and honest prices, that's mid mobile. To get your new wireless plan for just fifteen bucks a month and get the plans shipped to your door for free go to mint mobile dot com, slash preet, that's mint mobile dot com, slash preet, cut your wireless bill to fifteen bucks a month at mint, mobile dot com, slash, preet The the Israel hamas war has entered its third week. Foreign policy

Richard Hoss joins me to discuss the state of play in Israel, gaza and the rest of the region. Richard Hoss welcome to the show good to be with him. I should time stamp this because events, unfolding at a rapid pace? You and I are having this conversation on tuesday october twenty. Fourth, at the end of the business to the four p m, our so lots of things are in flux, The last thing I saw before I walked into the middle little podcast room in manhattan. was that Gaza says it. It's healthcare system is on the verge of collapse, an understanding that all this is very fluid. What's your best sense of what it is like in Gaza at them when will the baseline was never good to begin with, god is one of the more densely packed real stayed on the planet earth. I haven't check the per capita income levels they have been extremely low. A lot of people are dependent upon the work over international relief agencies, so

began with an impoverished population. Hamas is not new. For its economic leadership. and now on top of that, you've got to a full, fledged conflict or near full, fledged conflict. Nuts and bow both you know in this case now are retaliatory attacks by Israel from the air. Thus far for now, some two weeks. And there's been elements are cut off of Gaza the outside for things like fuel foodstuffs and the like so whatever the situation was to begin with, which again was anything but good. Now it significantly minus from that. So I was soon for a lot of gaza, its fairly miserable stockpiles such as they were had been drawn down. So I would think that'll a lot of the area- and you are talking about? Two million plus people is running short

of the basics, and this includes hospitals, schools, homes, you name it and how do you think to begin with Israel's closest allies are thinking about the situation that you described in Gaza. I want to speak about this closest ally, the united states, and to some slight differences with europe, but the united states by orders of magnitude, Israel's closest partner and outline. Tremendous sympathy for Israel, given what happened on october. Seventh support for the obligation on the part of israel to retaliate to react, where's the norm. The terrorists cannot act with impunity totally you're standing, given our experience say with nine eleven, but as the presidency, in a bind. This pointed out on more than one occasion also concern for palestinian lives off or non combatants for civilians both for

monitoring reasons, but also for political reasons, decision standing out of the world seized on a lot of palestinian civilians are suffering There is a result of all, however, intended getting getting her by aerial attacks or by the cut off By some of the necessities of life pressures will grow enormously. And the u n security, council and elsewhere for a ceasefire, it will also create all sorts of political and deplore. Other problems, should the united states, which is obviously seen around the world as Israel's biggest benefactor, so there's attention On one hand, the united states supports israel's right, then again, obligate duties or respond militarily against Hamas, but the united It wants Israel to respond in ways that make a distinction between mass and the people of Gaza and as if that were not complicate

Love is also the fate of the hostage, so there's lots of tensions. Here, then, is really the sea and then you ass. An? U s policy towards whatever is romania, let's talk about where the most basic things, what our Israel's goals its defeat. Hamas degrade the Hamas some other goal, and how do you compare what their goals are to what they should be? It's the right question: I don't think there's a clear answer to it as yet, indeed, I actually think there's something of a debate or conversation going on inside Israel inside the government and more broadly within israeli society, about what The definition is of all of winning here what the war aim should be, You mention two words. Honours turn degrade Hamas, which A grey area could mean a lot of things, which is something fundamentally different and less than say, eliminating marcia rooting out Hamas, so there

vocabulary on the israeli side has been more towards eliminate, but it's not cleared the likes of me that is possible, and even if it were to be possible in the physical or military sense. It would be extraordinarily closely to the israeli military. Lots of lies would be lost, more hostages would be taken. It would obviously be extraordinarily costly for the people of Gaza and it doesn't answer the question: what will you do the morning after? How would you create a legitimate, acceptable political authority that could take the place of Hamas, which has been ruling gaza for just over fifteen years. So I have doubts about the large definition of israeli girls by my own senses, the israelis are debating that, along with the concern about hostages, might be the reason that, as of this afternoon, I have held up a novice.

The by the administration has been pressing them to think more modestly, to think twice for doing something large on the ground in very poor related urban environment, so as october twenty fourth four p m, that is very much the problem. The biggest single open question was all sorts of other ramifications. I believe what follow on the answer to her wherever the israelis come out there you set aside. go that there's a conversation and debate going on within Israel on the israeli government. Can we talk about the standing such as it is? I'm Netanyahu who is a controversial figure, who came into great criticism for his attempt? couldn't quote judicial reform. What's his standing at the moment, will there be reckoned with respect to a perceived, failure of intelligence and anticipation

what is his position has standing and how is that interacting with how he's dealing with the situation, The standing right now is at the centre of what you might call to currents one is there's a crisis, an enormous crisis, clearly the greatest crisis in Israel for fifty years since the october. Seventy three war, There's a rally round the flag quality to life there. All these service who, during the democracy, protests. Would never answer a call up, Every single one of them, as best I can tell us answered the collar. Is israelis have come together, over there should be nothing. Our prime minister Netanyahu leads. I expanded Government money is still the prime minister so there's all that, but it's a big, but here personally held accountable by many israelis for the failure of october seventh, which was both an intelligent failure, but also a defence policy

failure. The idea that readiness was so low that, even if the intelligence was the summit don't miss because I wasn't liked or wasn't analyze clock correctly. The idea that is really were so poorly prepared for what hit them it is really feel truly let down by the state in some ways, the most they ve ever felt. down in their history. The time reckoning is not now because it is still an unfolding crisis and the question is: how is Israel going to respond the time for it will be when the crisis passes when the dust settles. Then you'll have to of inquiry and you'll have whether its the connect or else independent commissions, and you we'll have a reckoning with wide happen, that said Obviously, the mood of the context of that reckoning will depend not just upon the facts. What happened at the time? What was known? What was done and all that, but also what happened since? What are the effects of whatever is

well decided why, whatever we are? What were you- and I were just talking about a few minutes ago- whatever Israel decide to do how effective successful, is that scene and that my my gases that will also affect the the. Nature of the last day of reckoning, but it all it will surely com. They were there were such inquiries after the seventy three worn after lebanon, and so with Israel has a powerful rule of law tradition so there, they won't come on. Baby Netanyahu is clearly hoping is that when it comes, His own position is stronger than it is today because he is seen as not just the person who the country down on october seven, but as the poor who rallied the country subsequently will see if that is in fact the case, but for now for an indefinite period of time, his actual position of power politically is safe. For those reasons, guesser how's, our president,

of Biden, balancing all the various interests and american interests forces is really interests. How's, he doing with respect to the public commentary has been doing. You give us an assessment of how Biden this all this first thing to say this is an extraordinarily difficult crisis. There's a lot of players on the chess board, alot of moving parts, people were not it dissipating it just weeks go. The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, was quoted as talking about how the middle EAST essentially had quieted down a letting the allowing the united states to safely focus on both a europe and, what's now called the indo pacific. All that shared all things being equal actually think president Biden deserves high marks When I say this, as someone who has been

critical of him and some other foreign policy issue. So this is not partisan. I was a Republican for most of my professional and personal life. I've worked for one democratic president and three republican presidents, so I I tend to like a good baseball. Umpire calls I would like to see them, but I think the president here deserves high marks. She has been giving is real. What I think is wise advice, but he's done newberry, the way has been extraordinarily supportive, not just supply. In terms of policy sending aid but he's been nickel, almost emotional support. The empathy emotions the two speeches the President gave one on october. Tenth, if my memory serves me correctly and then the in israel during his short visit, I thought those were the best speech. So Joe Biden presidency, just powerful seems right now Joe by this time, the most popular man in Israel, he is bank, more good will with the israeli people, then

any american president in recent years, memories far more populous. We're just tell him Maybe maybe not enough, is far more popular than the the prime minister to stir. Do that, but I think the press, as is essentially gotten a right he's been supporter. He's talked about Israel's right to respond its duty to respond, but privately publicly. The administration is essentially said. Make foreign policy with your head and not just with your heart and think it through? and don't make some of the same mistakes we made after nine eleven. So I think directly in amending the specifics, the administrations been right in both tone. In substance, do you think that, as you described, president binds popularity in Israel gives him a certain extra kind of an once over, the hearts and minds of the israeli people that within translate into influence over Netanyahu's course of action for does not go that far too good question. I were about to probably have it

just because the administration and spoon counselling restrain again not that Israel, But hold off, though they might say you might want to be very careful. Sailors are so many american in israeli hostages, the administrations. Clearly up those israel on the idea of lay siege to Gaza in terms of cutting off food stops and fuel and the like administration network. The test is the administration advice that Israel goes on. Retail knothole show that it continues to have his eyes targeted air attacks, but any ground operation beasts be relatively small and focused, and again that comes to the the big question for israeli strategy, which is whether they're going to heed that strategy or whether they're going to going to go enlarge regardless and we'll find out you recently in the wall. Street journal quote the proper role for the? U s is not to try to prevent a significant israeli military action, which is all but inevitable, but to shape its scale and duration and

When you say all but inevitable, what is one of the possibilities? Other as we already seeing several hundred attacks from the air a day. So that's going to continue. I think, for some time so long as there are theirs intelligence, suggesting that there's useful hamas targets, I think there will be some ground component that at some point I think that's another now, but it could be the potential growled component, ranges from what you I guess she could describe as commando like raids, special forces raids. We would call it when you had specific intelligence about this or that military targets conceivably than a raw rescue mission thoughts extraordinarily hard to it, pull off or could go to the other extreme. The other end of the spectrum, where you'd put in several hundred thousand is

troops in europe are reoccupy, got something the israelis hadn t I haven't done since two thousand and five. I find it hard to imagine that Israel will do the complete thing there might be. Some between options, I'm hoping they lean towards the small end of the year the menu bar of options. but again I think that will be a truly faithful decision I'd say one other thing. What concerns me about the big option about going in very heavy is not simply the direct costs of it. but I worry also about the potential for war widening. I think that's a scenario that increases the odds that hizbollah word would jump into the war has bola has a military capability that I'm off its ten times twenty times that of Hamas and a lot of northern and central Israel is is vulnerable.

And not the height of the next. The edge expansion of the ward worries me is that it also opens up the possibility of direct american, an iranian abutments. I would rather to say the least: See things not go down that path, and one of the ways to reduce the odds of their all that happening, I believe, is for israel not to go into gaza in a real big way and in a way that would cause a lot of civilian casualties. Do you think, was impossible possible? No, given what you're saying has, Netanyahu decide it already with he's gonna go large. or more minimalist, and he just waiting for the right time. Possum early in consideration of the jeopardy that thou placed the hostages in or do you think, they're undecided and they nato oh, how small or large they want to go free, the honest there. As I have no idea, but those are the kinds of questions near the former would would be a tactical decision, Indeed, it's one of the reasons that Hamas both took all those hostages,

and liberating them at a very slow pace? Is it from Hamas has pointed very much ties Israel's hands and gives Hamas a lot of leverage, whether it's to spring their own prisoners and in Israel may be to get certain delays or halts in israeli military activity may be to exchange it for various types of fuel or food, so it gives them a lot of leverage. It doesn't matter. matter, in the sense whether the israelis have decided at why it less its imminent, they can always change so gather It's a decided not to go and big. They could change their mind depending upon events or vice versa. So I think it's one. the things that we want what, until we know it and anything before then doesnt much matter, am I correct that Hamas has suggested If Israel enters into a cease fire, they would release the hostages I still remember it, they say exactly what the the phraseology, the phraseology was, it is inconceivable that Israel will enter into

cease fire wasn't nothing's, inconceivable, that hard to imagine that Israel would enter into a cease fire at this point. Given the events of october seventh, I think the question is not whether israel react straw, Let's it's the scope and duration of its, how it reacts. Strawberries, My guess is that with the israelis, Trying to do is find a middle ground, at least for now that they could react brain hamas, but they still. Act in ways that Hamas will start killing, hostages and the hamas as to think that if they start killing the jews. The israelis will then say, while there's no reason to hold off anymore, if they're gonna kill innocent people again, then we're just gonna go in big so what you're describing it feels like is a situation of great. ship on both sides. Yes, sir, how does one manage that when false move on either side escalates everything dramatically. Look it's one of the things that worries me here. Think about

the gaza hospital compounds that was palestine slavic here, so you ve got multiple act. You share your office hizbollah and so software- show the complexity of this issue. To be underestimated. You have to be an optimist to think that this could be managed, we can get from where we are too as such. Which were all the hostages release were all sorts of food and the light that's into Gaza, a cease fire at some point and so forth. So, like I said have to be a real after MR think, we get from from here today again for israel the goal? is not a cease fire per se. The question is: what would be the preconditions for the requirements of a cease fire and that again, at the risk of certainly back at this basic, sure of what is the israeli definition, ah, not maybe absolute winning. That the decimation of of Hamas. But what Not what is what, the level of degrading that Israel

would say, is sufficient, were the israeli public would say: ok We paid an enormous price, but now what we forced Hamas to pay is we feel that we have reinforced the norm that we have restored to a degree deterrence, and that's, why I don't know well hard answer to that question, but might my worry about that? Is it the preconditions to a cease fire or a drawing down is a belief and a conclusion that Hamas has been degraded to a certain level or by a certain level. How do you prove that to people? How do you? How do you You can walk to the battlefield and show a certain number of new war prisoners. I don't think even if you got I point: how does everyone know and trust and believe that the degradation is even happened?.

I think the israeli military is not going to spin it, for the israeli government is really intelligence. Community will not spend it for the israeli government, so I believe they still have some credibility, particularly the military. With the israeli public, I think they would have a pretty good sense. of what it is they are claimed in the bigger question- is: what are you just say? They could prove that Hamas is down from thirty twenty five, thirty thousand fighters to him. Is that a level of degrading that people would say is is adequate? That's that's a larger conversation, furs society and for the israeli body politic? and the israelis room. I've talked about it, but one of the big challenges, I think also is in a dish until whatever israel does to Hamas. What does israel due to reconstituted, defences inside Israel

this never should have happened. The idea that Hamas tried to do this that may have been a surprise. What should have happened, though, as they failed. and to me the tragedy or scandal of this is that israeli defence readiness and capability allowed Hamas to succeed. So a big issue, in addition to anything Israel can him inflict on her. Mars, is: what can we Israel do assuming you? Can ever change or masses goals or agenda. What can you do to raise the bar significantly. So if and when They try something like this again, the next time they will fail I'll, be right back with rigid after this. fox creative. This is advertiser content from: u s, dairy

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I sign up for a one dollar per month- trial period at shopify, dot, com, slash box, business, all lowercase, go to shopify dot com, slash vox business, now to grow your business, no matter what stage you're at shopify, dot, com, slash of VOX business,. You mentioned Hezbollah a couple of times. How would we be about the opening of a second front? and do what you just said about israeli capability. Can Israel fight to front war? What we should be worried about a second front, but a lot of those in neurons decision making and might, though, be harder for, polo to stay out for ron to stay out either they'll feel political pressure or they'll see opportunity if the Gaza situation gets really really really ugly or Israel can fight a two front. War

problem is that the hizbollah can throw a lot at Israel. You got on the order of one hundred fifty thousand rockets various ray. just iron down, no matter how good it is it's not going to be able to handle one hundred and fifty thousand rockets. I don't know how many could actually be shot off in what time frame, but it would cause real harm loss israeli citizens would be killed. Certain towns would have to be evacuated, the economy would be heavily disrupted, been dorian airport could be closed for a time, so this would. even if Israel to hold its own. Ultimately, it would be an extraordinarily costly extension, of the conflict and we seen wars in lebanon, oda. The cost to the soldiers should go when the cost to the israeli towns within range over his bowler rockets, so lebanon and hizbollah would also pay or a large price of southern lebanon would be devastated? Lotta Hezbollah, what I'm gonna call a mill since terrorist, would be killed, but I

look we seen that movie before it. Could it could happen again? Oh yes, Israel could prosecute or to deal with were to france, just the clock would be extraordinarily high. I asked the previous guest on the show: question. Did Hamas outside its own death warrant, or does it understand that aside its own death one? Let me ask you called the opposite question: do you think there is an argument that the leadership of Hamas is proud of itself and thinks it did a strategically desirable thing, given what it least, with one exception. I'd say: yes, answer the yes, but the fact that Hamas was able to mount a surprise attack that was so effective against Israel reinforced Hamas is message that day or the palestinian entity that is both willing and able to take the fight to Israel, some that from that point, I think Hamas would see it as a major success where I think Hammas went way off the rails

was in the targeting of civilians and the savagery of the attacks and that forfeit? the tremendous amount of international opinion an ad. Israel, the united states and others against Hamas. So if this had been If you will a more narrow, traditional military action, it would have been bad, but I would have been one thing. but what hamas stood in the way it did at the beheadings, the mistreatment of individuals, the taking of the of civilians, the reports of rape and all that that put this over the over a different line, and I think that was a major miscalculation on it's quite. Why did they do that like what what was Is it because it's in their nature, while there's, does different schools of thought you Anne elliot, it- was on a morning Joe today talking about it. The yes, it's in their nature now is short of his that's what All of this should do and there's a depravity to these groups, to that.

That's a new strategic argument that they hope by doing such despicable things it's a way of showing their not intimidated, does not know what to say that to wait. Awhile. Essentially, say they're willing to take the fight with no limits. Another argument would be that the leadership miscalculated that they did all these things and they didn't understand, reaction? Another possibility is that certain groups or individuals went beyond whatever instructions or read they had died. There was no perfect, obviously, needless to say, no discipline or control. I don't know it, but it was so. There was a certain, distance between some of the savagery of the behaviour and the taking of hostages to set the goal was to get as many hostages who, as you could and was quite clear to me why the terrorist act that way

they did, but whatever the reason or reasons they did what they did, and that was, I would argue, from their own perverted point of view truly counter doctor. Is there some merit to the argument anywhere to the argument that maybe was intentionally for the purpose of drawing an overreaction and over response, quite possibly, but they did. They would have had to do this to do it to get that kind of response, a more traditional attack would have done the same thing. I think what they did was they put themselves in awe on the defensive in many ways, this it was seen as an excuse. Excuse it's one thing on: I'm justify it, but I think this a qualitative difference between attacking military targets and civilian targets, and even if its attack civilian targets, there was a level of savagery to this of barbarism to this that offended anyone who would call himself or herself civilized. So again, I don't know if this was a matter of calculation.

In a walk or whatever it was. It was even from its own again, I would say a perverse perspective. It was counterproductive people who are not experts on foreign policy and international relations or the middle east, and I'm in all three of those categories. Some people this and they see the horrendous actions of Hamas? he would Israel is doing in response to the united states, an interest there's hezbollah. There's lebanon now talk about IRAN, which is attempting to become clear power since a lot of countries? Can you paint if you, if you would a reassuring portrait as to why We should not worry that all of this is going on around in many world war on that side of the planet I can't sit here and say: does not gonna be war widening, as we talked about it? Could I can imagine this extending to to lebanon and israel the on the lebanese?

border, possibly united states in iran, and that's me is probably a worse possible case. The wouldn't be a worldwide, in the sense that it wouldn't draw the other great powers directly. I dont think indeed one of the reasons I think the odds, somewhat against that, with the emphasis on somewhat is china is heavily dependent on imported oil from IRAN. And the last thing china, which already faces a lot of economic headwinds, is going to want to cut off over oil. Far more expensive oil, russia wooden my more expensive oil, but China clearly would so. This is not great powers are not as intricately involved in this as they would, as they are saying now, what's going on and with ukraine and in europe or the way they would be. If there are a crisis over taiwan, I think This is a little bit more separated. We are learning, as this is a world of both medium powers and local powers. Iran is a medium power. His bow

Hamas are their local actors with real tape ability. So it's not world war stuff, but its local conflict stuff and, as we see in it, that's plenty about. What's the best way, where the best path for preventing iran to have a widening role, I think the best way to keep around for having why new role as a couple of things one I've already mentioned. Is china counselling restraint on IRAN? It would be ideal it states, signalling IRAN, what sort of economic or even military price, at my pay under certain scenarios, and as I suggested before

one of the many reasons I'd. Rather the israelis not go into gaza in a big way, as I think are by doing that. That would increase the chances of war widening bringing his, and so I think, if we can keep his hizbollah out and keep the war from widening, then I think the odds of director iranian participation go down dramatically. What's the reason that other arab countries, like egypt and Jordan, don't appear to be taking in palestinian refugees, because I like for you of affection for the palestinians and most of the world. If it exists at all in some theoretical other than actual. Aging, seventy palestinians were behind the threat to the hashemite thrown in in Jordan, And lives in precarious demographic and political balance in the idea they would allow more palestine and country inconceivable, pursued

Tensely undermine the stability of the yacht, the hashemite of love of the king, Egypt sees Gaza which, by the way, some of your listeners may not know each administer gaza until night, sixty seven six day, war or egypt has zero appetite to get back into gaza and often sees the connections between groups like Hamas and its own muslim brotherhood, so worries about opening up gaza because it fears that that could become a supply line to help militants in egypt and egypt. The scar except what happened in the wake of the arab spring, shall we say, or still fresh and most of the arab world looks Adam palestinians its without much affection. People also tend to forget the palestinians with cheering for Saddam hussein when he invaded and occupied kuwait? So on the saudis and others look at the palestinians, they have long memories

So there's there's, you know any number of reasons where support for the palestinian cause has popularity and the quote: unquote: arab street, but a lot of the governments around the middle east star are quite suspicious of palestinian refugees and of palestinian militants. Are terrorist organizations in DC that changing at any point in the near future. No sir. Putting it back to the hostages for a moment is one way this could potentially play out given the past history, that there would be a massive exchange of palestinian prisoners or hamas prisoners for is really hostages that could the complicating factor is that this has taken place in the middle of conflict for warrant for conflict, I'd, say sure, but now that it's in the middle of a complex question is to what extent does Hamas see the presence of

hostages as a way of delaying or limiting any sort of large scale, israeli military action- and I think that's slows down any pace because there's a larger consideration than simply getting back. Those hammas fighter sure in israeli jails or other palestinians in israeli jails. The real question from the point of view of Hamas is how we how they can use the hostages to essentially deter certain types of israeli military action, so I dont think in exchange Most likely, in the absence of something larger in terms of our political outcome and the occasional release of a hostage or two, you believe, that's a kind of a delay tactic. I do Is it an effective one so far it has been, but I can't see here until you will continue to be, but it's very hard, I think, for Israel to take the short of military action that would endanger the hostages,

if they are gradually being released and good health. I think it complicates israeli decision making what alluded to this, but let suppose that Hamas is at least severely degraded if not eliminated, and they can no longer govern in Gaza a what does a post hamas, Gaza look like and be, or people in Israel and elsewhere. Thinking about that enough to really good questions, one I keep coming back to its very hard to. constitute political authorities. A political authority has to not just have capability, but it also has to be deemed acceptable than legitimate by the population. Otherwise it has to be imposed. So imagine a scenario where is We all in big to gaza quota quote defeated, decimated amass so they did have an israeli occupation authority and they grew

actually what it would either invite in or try to encourage the emergence of a A political and security presence well in Gaza. Who would you turn to theirs thing there? You have to start from scratch and the question is: could the Israelis midwife that find that really really hard to imagine that any group of individuals to them? urge under israeli true knowledge and somehow have any legitimacy, any acceptability in terms of how they are seen and by the population. So what are the external alternatives? Like only think of three one, would be the palestinian authority which quota quote governs the west bank, but I spy put it in, It's because the parliament's palestinian authority is weak and its competence, shall we say, is finite the idea that they could take over Gaza? Not while.

The popular there and they can barely govern the west bank. So I think that sir, I'd be an enormous reach on their part, not inconceivable, but a rage. The idea, the arab league kind of force, or each brothers we were just talking about, I think, is very little up. tight in the arab world. To take that, I could the? U n security council do something in principle. In reality, I think now come. I don't think you could ever get people to agree on the terms of reference. So you and peace keeping forces almost all We only want to operate when there's a piece to keep might be very hard to first establish, a peace is the concern would be well as soon as the israelis left say, Hamas like or palestinian islamic jihad, like forces, would come out of the woodwork. they would say: wanna kill anyone who was quote unquote, collaborating with the extra

the external forces, sir. I find one of the weaknesses and all this is his idea that you can have a successful hand off of authority that could maintain order and would be politically acceptable and pick up the garbage and run the economy. I just fine Did I haven't seen Anybody write about it or speak about it at a level? persuasive detail less worrisome on Gaza, with Hamas is terrible. In gaza without Hamas, as you just discussing is also a mess, did it. So I mountain, a really controversial, uncomfortable place. I don't like it myself, but I can't think of anything that witches is. Israel goes in not wholesale, but retail from the air little from the ground dramatically reduces degrades hamas Hamas is still there and Israel puts a lot of emphasis on reconstitute.

Its defenses of something like this can ever succeed, even if hammas were so prone to try it again. If you go back to sort of equilibrium, You go back to a version of the status quo ante. It were for the last fifteen years and then sign famously Israel would try to develop a palestinian partner in the west bank? that's something! That's been missing from the palestine, and then from the israelis, but, long term goal would be to make the west bank a more viable place, perhaps to create a palestinian state there, and I realize this could be the stuff of decades, fundamentally different israeli government very different I was standing in authority, but ultimately I come from the? U cant beat something with nothing school and the only way I think, to make in the long run work would probably be to have a palestinian state that that look pretty good and what Hamas was Gaza look pretty bad or you can have a three stage. Lucian wendy, I can imagine- a palestinian state and the west bank,

Hamas or somebody lead entity in in Gaza there's lots of ways this can play out, but as distasteful as Hamas is, there have been protests periods of deterrence equilibrium. Word. One wants to use- and I don't think it's impossible to- to re, establish a form of it I agree. I understand that nobody likes it when I say that and people say how could you coexist with these? People after what happened on october, seven ion stand, but I have yet to see a persuasive, viable play. For eliminating them and replacing them with something that was that that could work. What's the phrase that I think you have you, has witches. Things were always very awful before they get even worse. One of my two laws of the middle east things get worse before they get even worse yet alone. The enemy

of your enemy, could still be your enemy right right. How does that second adage play out here? Well, I'm not sure who the year, who would apply to here, like the middle east or do what's the word it should read a kind of modesty: the idea that people look for solutions in the Middle east that it's a word? I bad. What I constantly think about comes to the Middle east to things like management, what's good enough, You look for solutions. I worry about them. I think that tends to have overreach written all over it and I think the united states overreach badly in the middle east and tried to a trance warm societies and polities, and so for it? So I think Israel has had, sperience in Gaza has had experience of lebanon, and I think there's a day, european overreach saw. How would I put her I'm in favor of israeli reach here, just not overreach, and I think that's that's.

Gentlemen area than a conversation, what would be a reasonable definition of ambition here of success. But again as I said, it will be unsatisfying, because I do not think the elimination of Hamas and turning turn in gaza into this friendly neighbour? I just don't see that, and I just don't see that in the cards. I don't want you go without asking whether or not your experience working on studying dealing with the previous patient in northern. Ireland tells you. Nothing about the middle east or the hope that intractable situation, ultimately can be resolved and there could be a path towards peace, because you have been negative. The last few minutes I borrowed It is no like my kids Me Debbie, downer, daddy we're down or northern ireland has had a big impact on my thinking cause. I do think there is something not perfectly analogous, but somewhat analogous is the listeners you're not for me with northern ireland.

Northern ireland went through three decades of a times. Brutal internet seen civil conflict and again You had multiple parties, you had provisional, I array and other groups violent nonviolent on de. I would call the republic in our nationalist or catholic side and they use at various star on the protestant lloyd, willis, paramilitaries, various political parties, unionist parties on on the other side and then you'd, british military and british police forces and so forth and local police forces. She had all sorts of actors in this mess him for three decades. during the so called troubles you heard of violence and roughly thirty, five thirty six your people lost their lives over these three decades, ultimately came to an end twenty five years ago, and the so called good friday or belfast agreement and which are

my predecessor, in the job of u s on void. George Mitchell played an important role in helping to bring the parties together, but I think what made it all possible were was decision, in part by margaret thatcher more by tony blair, to basically have a two pronged policy. One problem was a security policy of very large heavy security presence, which is actually said, sent the message to the provisional ira re, but you will never be able to shoot your way to power. You will know be able to force us out of the british out of northern ireland. You will never be able bring about a united ireland by force. So try as you might, you will fail, but- and here was the interesting part of what in particular prime minister blair did they offered a second track and said we will offer you. However, a political

rock a political path that will give you a considerable degree of what you want in the civil rights area. Does catholics historically had been second citizens in northern ireland. It will give you a large role and local government, along with local protestants, an anglo irish dimension and so forth. And you won't get everything you want. The british government said, but you will get along. of what you want more important you'll get more of what you want, then you will ever get by force and terrorism and it was the combination of a hard line, but a political opening that I think worked took awhile but at work. But I thought that's the same formula here, where the israelis have to make clear that Hamas is never gonna, get close to destroying the jewish state fat. terrorism will never accomplish goals. But- and here is the second thing- there has to be a political path for those palestinians who are willing to rule out violence in the

Shit in good faith to quiet, find an accommodation with Israel is you're. Gonna have to meet them, half way with things like limits on settlements and so forth, a long negotiation, but that's what I think this autumn: So, right now or at the point where we ve gotta reestablish, ordered these It is up to reestablish water that has to happen first, but after that The only way to get out of the cycle ultimately will be to open up a serious, attractive political track. I'll take a different israeli government rather than an undermining of potential palestinian partner. As these Elizabeth and under actually gonna have to try to empower a palestinian, partner and the reason Israel should do this and I am I bang on I loudly ass. I can on this not as a favour to the palestinians, but is a favorite in themselves.

Israel wants to remain a democratic, jewish state, a secure and prosperous, democratic jewish state. It has the end the occupation, you do you have an occupied Sean and people are denied political rights and new ceased to be a democracy or you have an If the patient and people are given full political rights, in which case you ceased to be a jewish state, so it's in Israel own self interest to open up a political track. I acknowledge they tried it in the past and yasser Arafat and others. I would say ticked away, offers that what shall we say pretty good and then some in through the of you mirror we are where we are where we are, and I would I did it, going forward. The united states ought to be pushing israel hard to do this.

so daddy downer, I mean richard haass. Thank you very much for educating us and giving us your inside, thanks being on the show. Thanks for having me, my conversation with Richard Hoss continues for members of the cafe insider community too. the membership for just one dollar for a month and to cap it all come slash insider again. That's cafe dot com, slash insider I wanted to show this week with an inspiring story of collaboration between israelis and palestinians,

be difficult to remember these moments of peace during such a tense time of conflict, but these stories tell of our common humanity back and ninety. Ninety nine, the israeli conductor in pianist Daniel barenboim and the late palestinian american academic, edward, Saeed cofounded, the west eastern divine orchestra. The group based in spain, brings together israeli palestinian and other arab musicians to make beautiful music and to talk openly about their differences over the last twenty four years the group has performed iconic classical works around the world in twenty. Sixteen, the united nations secretary general ban, KI moon designated. ruby, united nations global advocate for cultural understanding, the earth it will also spawned the barenboim site academy, a music, college in Berlin that offers degrees. was aspiring musicians from north Africa and the middle EAST. Ninety students are currently enrolled since the horrors of october, seventh and the subsequent escalate

in Gaza and around the Middle EAST. The orchestra academies aims of peace have loomed especially large in its october fourteen war in the holy land special b s news our even ended their coverage with musical excerpt from the group, Barenboim also published in up ad in the guardian, calling for continued cultural exchange amid the ongoing violence? His words replica not just to the israel hammas war, but to the power of music to bring together opposing groups around the world as barenboim wrote quote in the current situation, actually ask myself about the significance of our joint work in the orchestra and the academy. It may seem little, but the mere act that arab israeli musicians sheriff podium at every concert and make music together is of immense value over the years through this commonality of music making, but also through, countless sometimes heated discussions we have learnt

I understand the suppose it other to approach them and to find common ground we start and end all discussions? No matter how controversial with fundamental understanding that we are all equal human beings who deserve peace, freedom and happy this may sound naive, but it is not for it. Is this understanding that seems to be completely lost in the conflict on both sides today, Experience shows that this message has reached many people in the region and around the world. We must want and will continue to believe in our shared humanity music is one way to bring us closer together. End quote two months ago at the lucerne festival in Switzerland, the west eastern divan orchestra, joint russia, german, jewish, pianist eager love it in a rendition of beethoven's piano, certain number one in c major, although

heavens, composition is almost two hundred and thirty years old. Its beauty, especially given the diverse politics and heritage of the orchestra, is truly timeless. We leave you this week with a brief extra from the concert and we wish you and your family's continued health com, peace and musical healing during this difficult time. the The The Well, that's it for this episode of stay tuned, thanks again to my guest richard house,

if you like what we do, review, the show and apple pie casts or wherever you listen. Every positive review helps new listeners find the show similar questions about news, politics and justice tweet them to me a free per hour The hashtag ass creek. You can also now reach me on threads. Are you call and led me a message at six: nine to four seven, seven, three, three, eight, that six, nine to four brief or you can send an email to letters, a cat They don't come stay tuned is presented by cafe, and the vocs media park. Gas network, the executive producer is tomorrow separate the editorial

Wizards are David Kerr, lander and now as ally. The technical director is david, tatar sure the audio producer is net wiener and the cafe team is Matthew. Billy Jake, kaplan number two shot and claudio Hernandez. I'm your host, preet bharara, stay tuned. Support for this show comes from the national women's law centre without strong advocates for gender justice Change may never come as quickly as we needed to that's why the national La centre has fought for over fifty years to create change for all of us, from fighting to close the gender pay gap to increasing the minimum wage for workers throughout the country, then, Women's law centre is a driving force behind landmark policies for the betterment of women's lives, join them by visiting

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