Did Malcolm Gladwell blow it in his bestselling book Outliers? What if all he did was write a primer for neurotic helicopter parents? To find out, Revisionist History descends on the University of Pennsylvania to run a roomful of eager students through a mysterious experiment, complete with Sharpies, huge white stickers, and a calculator. It does not end well.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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in the middle of our preparations for season. Seven of this, your favorite podcast, the revisionist history team, got on a train to philadelphia for us, carrying props, recording equipment and extra money.
Donation, the gothic eating, covered cathedral of higher learning, that is, the university pennsylvania and what had become because we had cooked up
a little experiment and with a curious to see how would fly,
Thank you, we come in
There is one of the main lecture halls at the wharton school invited
Seventy five, or so students or seniors smart, focused discipline. Future masters of the universe
and ask them to answer ten simple questions such as
how many years of your key to our education, where a public school and how many were a private school at the time of your graduation from high school, how many continents had you been,
at any point, during your middle school and high school years, did your parents provide you with a private tutor
dead.
oh and rose at eager students hunched over. There
in anticipation, took a deep breath and began.
So, my name is now can grab well. I am the host of the
cast revisionist history. The theme
of this season of revisions, history is experiments and one of the experiments of the season
involves all of you, so you guys are guinea. Pigs.
Yes, guinea pigs, because in a manner of all guinea pigs, they were entirely in the dark about.
We had in store for them.
And as you probably gas from some of the question,
tat you were given what I'm trying to
Is I'm conducting an experimental
astrogation into the nature of the privilege of the peace
in this room, the students quickly finish the questionnaires
put their names in birth rates at the top. My producers
television harrison. I sitting at a big table.
the front of the room in full view of all the guinea pigs. They go through the completed questionnaires,
one by one and use the answers to generate a number, a score which they write on a giant white sticker with a big fat sharply,
and now the real experiment begins.
I'm going to assign every one of you a number if they can figure out what
number means they will,
stand something essential about how broken
system, was that propelled them to the ivy league and how to fix it, just peel off the back and like it? If a fix
stick to your just. So we can all see each other's numbers. You can.
look around the room, see everyone else's numbers, see your number and hopefully that will
age you in your investigation of what exactly the nature. This experiment is how this reader students sat there with the numbers stuck to their chests. Ok, looking around
The third element trying to make sense if everyone score, I try to help them figured out, gave them hints nudges fur
Think about this. I gave you a series of questions, some of those questions
involved a yes or no answer. She saw two people
always harrison, who quite quickly
in the space of about five minutes. Ten minutes went
seventy five or so responses, and were able to very quickly and easily assign you a number so
about this. Logically, it wasn't.
Complex, algorithm, right,
computer used.
How long would you say you are spending and heroism? How long would you spending on each questionnaire think that five six seconds- okay, that's clue, guys, let's go come up
hi. My unable is aid. They might have just looked at zip code, because a pretty good predictor of privilege, just in and of itself ape, has direct
his hypothesis from question six. What is the zip code, your family,
didn't junior high school years. Perhaps he speculates
amber on his chest with some kind of complex, mysterious derivative of his zip code, but in see if he had a computer, but if you did
There was no thousands, our computer,
I did have cut it character, Abraham, with all due respect. I use
Guessing the allergies and harrison had member
Is there every zip code?
the very smart, not
That's why I'm sack
I think it really has to do strictly with the private versus public education system. In the. U s, nope
not what we were looking for.
I have my name is joseph question.
I thought was a very interesting on there was about if you have any siblings and if so, how many nope, not that either.
time cayley, one that I don't think I've ever been asked in relation to this was, if I drank when I was in high school, what
that I got drunk out clearly
referring to question number nine in high school, did you drink alcohol and, if Yes
did you first get drunk? Could you,
up with any reason. Why would have asked a question is: do you think that's just one of the ones that I'm just blowing smoker? I have.
Own hypothesize, but I care o come what if I'm wrong? That's this
without being wrong.
This is all about being run once upon a time in two thousand and eight, I wrote a book called outliers
the first chapter of which was devoted to a phenomenon discovered in the nineteen eightys by the canadian psychologist, roger barbarously. Here's some of what I wrote, the experts
nation for who gets to the top of the hockey world- is a lot more
resting and complicated than it looks good. Lord
I do not sound like I'm enjoying reading my own book. Listening to this part
the outliers audio book now I'll admit I have some regrets about. That chapter will get to that. I promise anyway, it occurred to me as I planned our trip to fully that I should talk to binds the again and go over his discovery. One more time make sure it understood everything so called him up and asked him to return.
Story of how, in the early nineteen eighties, he and his wife paula stumbled upon what has come to be known as the relative age effect,
We are living in a less rigid alberta.
And we were
to junior a hockey team, the less bridge broncos at that time. Finally,
his wife, Paula, started. Reading the game program.
at the rosters of both teams listed in it.
It over to me roger?
you can call these hockey players were born, and I
Let me thinking to myself. Well, you know, that's that's kind of a silly question, so I did it
calculation is regional policy, the average age eighteen sputnik
You need to salute probably all born in around eighteen. Sixty four.
and she said, do you know I'm not talking about the year I'm talking about a month.
Are you talking about you opened up keeping
The programme
were listed. The rush to the team and interest jumped out is chopped
The majority of these players were January february. Marshalling you seem to get
are equal in may and very few in the fall, and I set my didn't
Let's just remarkable, he went home and expanded his search further everywhere. He looked in competitive hockey same thing. For some reason, most players were born.
The first part of the year and less when that same this, forty thirty, twenty ten by the cautious we hear showed up the famous
but he's thirty. Twenty ten phenomenon that he's talking about is
in outliers, I referred to,
the iron law of canadian hockey quote in any.
A group of hockey players, the very
to the best forty percent of the people.
Will have been born between january and march. Thirty percent
in April in june, twenty percent between
in september, and ten percent between october and December end quote
now. Why is this it's because Canada is obsessed with hockey and coaches start picking players for all start travelling squads at the age of nine or ten?
since the eligibility cut off for canadian hockey his january first? That means the
she's are choosing among nine year old, who are as much as twelve months apart and twelve months. H. Difference at the age of nine is a lot. The january kids are bigger
stronger and more coordinated than the december kids, which means the january. Kid is more likely to be chosen by the coaches for the travelling squad, which means in turn, that they will practice two or three times as often play more games had better coaches, better competition than the kids left behind and what began as a completely
Arbitrary advantage, based on a quirk birthdays, turns over time into a real advantage.
The same phenomenon holds true in other sports soccer swimming, you name it. You can find a relative eight effect everywhere and of course, it also applies to the classroom. Teacher
I'd any better than coaches disentangled ability from maturity. So relatively older kids in elementary a middle school end up getting more encouragement. They tend to get better.
It's and they're more likely to be chosen for things like gifted and talented programs. Meanwhile, relatively younger kids are more likely to be diagnosed with learning disorders or flagged for problem behavior. I cannot tell you how many parents have come up to me over the years and said because I read your book outliers. I held my kid back from starting school and it was the best decision I ever made. Of course it was but parents holding their kids back doesn't
health problem- it just creates a relative age- affect arms race. There's a fancy private school near me where so many parents of younger children have held their kids back that now the parents of the formerly eldest children have responded by holding their kids back, whereupon the first set of parents are increasingly holding their kids back a second time, meaning that there is
at least a theoretical possibility that in the most competitive corners of american private education, some kids may never graduate from high school?
maybe I should have seen that coming when I wrote outliers, I should have been
clear that I was not trying to teach neurotic upper middle class. Helicopter parents had again system- I just one-
schools and sports leaks to start behaving like idiots. So
binds these paper on relative age effect came out in name
in eighty five outliers, which was, I think, the first
time. Barnes these work got wide. Publicity was published in two thousand and eight
world has been alerted for decades to the fact that all kinds of
possibly meritocratic systems have been hijacked hasn't.
Anything changed
in front of your computer. I put the question to roger banzai. The orgy of relative age affect research. What have we learned.
Can you, Google, the roster of the canadian junior hockey team, national hockey, team
for twenty twenty one, twenty two, the current roster right now
Once you do to go down the list of the forwards, disused forwards, for the sake of simplicity,
and I want you to do-
read the twenty one months of birth, of the forwards on
current canadian junior national hockey,
diversity, just your names! I just want their birth months city and then binds the repeated what his wife politics decades ago at the left, bridge broncos
game. He listed the birth months by number of the men.
Is it the national junior hockey team listen for birth months of seven or higher to ten one one, one, two eleven eight four, two, ten five, four five, two six one, three one, one five three two four
One thing I ve learned: nothing should have the same phenomenon. You saw you solve this.
the years ago,
law of canadian hockey is still an iron law.
That's funny.
Does it have any at all. It's depressing very depressing, very refreshing. Here we are both canadians.
here, we are citizens of a country that cares more about hockey, excellence than anything. It must be clear anything at the end. We are leaving
Stoning amount of towns on the table exactly and
fusing to learn what of canada's
probably academics. Forty years ago, said to the lucky establishment. What are you doing israel
they haven't anything. Can they
hockey hasn't done anything, but maybe provisions. History can
the and now a word from our sponsor better help. I'll be honest, I have problems sleeping sometimes, particularly when I'm in the
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financial, logistical, ethical or practical constraints. Anything goes, for example, imagine a world with a concept of risk. Didn't exist, what would happen would addled skateboard to work every day? Would parents that,
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The inspiration for the revisionist history, wharton school relative age effect, experiment came to me when I was talking to Adam Kelly. Former footballer turned university
Mr Kelly is a disciple of roger bonds. Me he works with sports leagues to help them solve their age. Related problems like england's basketball federation, which spent a small fortune.
setting up regional centres to identify promising players. We looked at the proportions
She was selected into those talent son as across the the nation
and that was the age groups selected from thirteen to fifteen
they for male and female, and anders
avoiding vasco one where the tens
and will at least be selected ten times birth quota, one is the three months closest to the english basketball eligibility cut off date,
yeah with which subsidy crazy. Isn't it the same old story? The town spotters thought they were picking the most promising players, but in fact they were just picking the oldest kids, because the oldest kids were, of course, the tallest and most coordinated anyway
kelly's? Also thought a lot about education, wise everyone taken their examine exactly the same time, actually be
It will be taken at that same
I'm within our lifespan,
save your boy in august
you're taking your example last twelve months,
They are then someone who's born in September lockers,
twelve months, more learning than you, which is super obvious when you think about it in new york state all the big elementary school math in english. Standardized tests are, in late march early April, we're talking third graters, eight and nine year old. At that age, kids get smarter,
every week. Yet we're trying to assess kids by their test scores and some of the kids were judging had been around as much as a you're longer than other kids,
why don't we have the january kids all take the test in january and february, kids in February?
and on and on down the line. I have no idea
I see no idea. So,
gathered? The research arm of revision is history. Without props recording equipment and extra microphones and headed for the gothic ivy covered,
the jewel of higher learning. That is, the university of pennsylvania to see if a group of really really smart young people,
can figure out the importance of the month when they happen to be born.
Turn off your piece of the top
and was we're finished. We will collect them and then the exercise. So we give out our elaborate questioner but secretly our interested in
his people's birthdays and then elouise and harrison go through each questionnaire and use the birthday to do a simple calculation. Technically, the youngest you could be as a college senior at the time of our experiment was to be born in september, two thousand and one. So if he were born, then you got a zero, zero birth privilege. If you are one month older born in august, two thousand and one you got
I mean you're July two thousand and one you've got a two and so on the higher the number on the sticker, the older the student wearing it. We even had a contingency for students who might have skipped a grade somewhere along the way. You'll get a negative number if you were younger than the expected age of a college
First thing we found out, there were no negative numbers in the room back when I was in college, I knew dozens of people who had skip great. Apparently that doesn't happen much anymore, but it was worse than that.
There is no zeros. They went to one to the twos threes fours fives. Anyone less than ten stand up. One student finally stood up in the back row of a college. Senior
was a few months shy of her twenty second birthday or your ten o. What ten in the back row over
a tenement, we ve got the twelve. We get these twelve. We got some tens take a look. This is bananas
This is as bad as the canadian national junior hockey in our sample of students from
one of the world's most selective universities. There were no young seniors, none not even close. There was no one at all
who had been born in two thousand, and one which
is the year. You would expect most senior to be born in a one point: a students
Are you talking about her experience in a gifted in town to program? So I asked for a show of hands
you want me asking how many of you guys we're we're in gifted in town to programmes. Well, basically, all of you, which makes sense right- these were a group of relatively old students and being relatively older, makes it more likely to get into a gifted in town to program and getting into a gifted in town to programme makes it more likely to get into a school like pen, which is why our group of seniors tat day a wharton, were all really old. What begins as arbitrary advantage hardens into privilege live on a simple fact about their own success that our students still hadn't.
Figured out, I'm many you another took ass, the particular dimension, a privilege were interested in measuring.
I'm going to say with a great deal of certainty, is in this room, this most significant form of privilege or lack of it, but you would have experienced as students at this point I have pulled out almost
trying to help them? I've had people with the highest number stand up a one point:
I made everyone with a number over twenty, get up from their seats and light
up against the wall. There were still guessing, but it was like they were, throwing darts without blindfold on. There were pretty clear demographic similarities at the top and inspection.
racially was the most obvious in my eyes,
so just in general that there were very few
Low end of the spectrum is also noteworthy. How do you feel about being in the higher
number group, as opposed to the lower number group, I mean it's just a fact like it
It's like I'm out em coming into
I am aware my privilege, as
white woman by
I think it's about what you do without privileges, important, a man after
Forty minutes are floundering in a shallow end of the revision. Is history research pool
students in the front row put their heads together and then
basically, we have a hypothesis, that's Adam. Everyone in this front row group had the highest privilege score. We handed out twenty four plus
Of course they figured it out. First, they were the oldest students in the class. Next to Adam was Joseph
he was wearing a suit and a tie. Yeah,
If a hypothesis, twenty four plus, is that a significant factor here is
age are absolute age. I like how old are you guys were all about
of all the seniors over here all the usual eureka phase. One of the experiment was over now
two because I intended to ask them if they wanted to do something about their arbitrary privilege and now a word from our sponsor better help. I'll be honest, I problem sleeping, sometimes
particularly when I'm in the middle of making a new revision history season? And then I worry that are not sleeping enough and then, of course, that worry makes it harder for me asleep. How'd, you break that's
by understanding that anxiety is not a permanent condition, its a symptom that we can address incorrect? It can be difficult. I think, to realise that what seems on fixable is actually not, and you know who is trained to help you without difficulty a therapist, a therapist can help you become a better problem, solver, making it easier to accomplish goals, no matter how big or small, if you're, thinking of giving therapy a try better help is a great
and it's convenient, accessible, affordable and entirely online. When you want to be a better problem, solver therapy can get you there visit better help, dot com, slash gladwell today to get ten percent off your first month. That's better h, e l, p, dot com, slash gladwell, hi everyone, Malcolm Gladwell. Here, as most of our listeners know, we've devoted this season of revisionist history to magic, wand, experiments. The kind of experiments would know
Financial, logistical, ethical or practical constraints. Anything goes for example. Imagine a world with a concept of risk didn't exist. What would happen? Would addled skateboard to work every day? Would parents that,
the kids wander off to do whatever they wanted. Whenever they wanted, would we open every little e mail attachment? We received the possibilities. I mind. Numbing, well, if you want to find out what it's like to remove risk, you don't need a magic wand simply by a sought for luxury mattress, its close to risk free, as you can get for starters. Sata gives you
one year to decide. If a mattress is right for you one year, they also give you a lifetime warranty. You can even apply for zero percent financing and right now you get two hundred dollars off your point.
Just a thousand dollars are more at supper. Duck come slash, Gladwell, that's s! A tv a duck come slash, gladwell,
In australia, they've invented something called maturity based corrective adjustment procedures, Matt capps.
As is known for provisional use in sport of swimming
confess that I am madly in love with his idea. It turns out
Then, if you take a bunch of measurements of kids,
put them into an equation. You can estimate their physical maturity quite accurately, so you,
we'd have to rely on chronological age to assess summons level of development. You can do one better and measure maturity directly. So what these equations do?
they fight turin indices like height white chronological age and sitting
and they use those factors to dance estimate. How far away a particular-
Individual is from that point of peak growth that stephen calmly
a professor at the university of sydney who created mac caps, along with his colleague, Michael roman, here's how it works
do we have to fourteen year old swimmers competing in a hundred metre freestyle both with the exact same birthday, Julian TIM, so these academics would first catch
the biological maturity status of its swimmer. That is how far each one is from their estimated point of peat performance. So let's say
for example, Joey is actually twelve months less biologically. Mature then tim at this exact moment then comes the cool apart
Calmly that looks at thousands of data points for fourteen year old swimming in the hundred metre freestyle and calculates what is twelve months of maturity worth on average
in terms of swimming time for kids competing in that age group he
to use the data into the maturation based corrective adjustment procedures, algorithm and presto the procedure?
just Joey's time to account for the fact that at the moment he raced him? He was
twelve months behind development
an adolescent swimming in kabul
the ideal universe has two sets of results, the raw results and then the maturity, adjusted was
What you're doing is your effectively lowering the time of the folks were.
Slightly behind in terms of their maturity status calmly? Did a test run of the mill caps algorithm
the sample of seven hundred australian swimmers, all boys competing in a hunted me meter, freestyle. The first thing he discovers is similar to what we found a pen among the top twenty five.
And of all adolescent swimmers? There were no late maturing boys, none zero, which
an astonishing fact. Australia is a country that takes swimming as seriously as canada takes hockey, and they have basically decided to banish
a big group of young swimmers from consideration just because their talent happens not to appear soon enough.
When you look at these seven hundred swimmers,
in some sense that
It has already been done. We ve
are? They chased away the snow developers they ve quit. They ve got discourage they
They thought they were bad swimmers, it didn't realize they were simply behind gear
so what happens when you run everyone's race times to the map caps algorithm, adjusting from maturity, the order of finnish in every race changes there really talented swimmers who just happened to be slower to mature. Now have a chance.
They used to be lost to the system. Now you can tell who they are now you can go.
Two young jelly and say I know you didn't make the final, but take a look at your map. Caps time
You might be the best swimmer out there, the what's the
Most somebody moved up the weakest
in large per se.
He recently seen big changes in ranks, so if we we ve got cases for events
where someone who was outside, let's say the top twenty,
Suddenly was in the top three, I read your paper and the first thought I had was oh wow. This belongs in the classroom,
right when you identify who gets into special gifted in town to program. So when you decide who just isn't it,
but an hour for when you look at who you
scourge and who you encourage. You ve got
you making the same mistake right yeah. I think so. I think the cautionary bit that we have to remember is they start all question of yeah, but how far do we go so if we're going to fight to if we are going to fight a relative agent in education or by
general development and education and judgments shouldn't. We be fight to renew the things that we know are influential absolutely. Why? Wouldn't we well exactly? Why wouldn't way
we have developed a better way of identifying talent. Why
Couldn't we want to use it everywhere back at work?
I climbed up on my soapbox, I talked about how mac caps
had freed swimmers and the tyranny of birthdays communicate.
My enthusiasm for bringing the australian revolution to the shores of the united states, so in Australia they started to do this.
eleven year. Olds are all swimming, that hundred metre freestyle. We got twelve kids, we have an order of finnish
and they run the times, do an algorithm and having now would you feel comfortable
with all of your. If you go back to your
kay through twelve experiences. Would you feel calm?
Well, if they ran all of your test,
through an age correction algorithm,
around the room. I saw young people of promise focused eager
it would be my disciples I was so full of excitement. I put the question to a vote.
yes, you know us into a show of hands who likes the idea.
There- was a great stirring and rustling my heart leapt into my throat. I thought I had brought the birthday rights ready.
ocean into the heart of the lions den locked up looked around and having no roar of support. Only along cold
silence. I've never seen less enthusiasm over a great idea in my life, we, what is the matter with you guys? A young man spoke up first sight to be completely honest, it's to be selfish, about
It would probably have heard our chances of being right here in this room, because I'm old from my great
a standardized test scores maybe a play readjusted. I would be more in the media and he was a twenty two year old senior in college. So selfishly, I would say,
No, it's not a good idea from a societal standpoint, perhaps you're being honest,
honesty?
legacy admissions or something like that. My father went to plan and my mother went to penn you're drowning
sergeant drowning honourably.
If we get rid of this
I must go. The honesty is fantastic. Who else once did then Matteo raised his hand he's an eighteen on his sticker?
h, privilege advantage of a year and a half, and I think,
the poor idea, because it assumes that everyone who is older is like always going to be smarter and one whose number is always going to be less smart. I have seen some
some people do some terrible things.
No, no no matteo does not what it does both its neutral. It just adjusts for the agency.
I want my school to be my score, but wait. Wait. I wouldn't want to cut his heart, wouldn't you say
what your score to be your score yeah. But why is why? Is it adjusted score, a score that accounts for you?
degree of maturity. Somehow less characteristic of who you are then not adjusted score, I would have thought the opposite, a score that doesn't include
Information on your level of maturity would seem to be more artificial than one that does.
I guess I'd have. I would one look at the algorithm before I made an actual judgment, because idea:
rise. If I was ok with everything I theoretic
everything that the algorithm would say the students
one by one using their prodigious
powers of analysis and imagination to come up with one objection after another.
Why do you think you guys were so hostile to it to two attempts to remedy the situation? Might
here without rhythms that it could be gained, saw
these were, if ever we know that if your young
you got a hundred point pomposity or how
you more favourably driver educational career.
never hobby, sending our kids off to kindergarten for four,
meaning whenever we have our kids looking where a cut off date
we can the garden nine september. Maybe in saying I forgot
produce nine months before that in december and January, in the current
system, that's being gained we're response
to the gaming. Have we got
So I guess I'm the fear that the outcome could be regained. Yes and yes,
exactly
I put my hand on the table to steady myself, my hat
spinning
the children of outliers children raised according to the rules of the game, I kind of help set in motion and now
the consensus among seventy five
elderly ivy leaguers
was it. The system should remain rigged in favour of the elderly. The apple cart must remain upright with this
funniest and oldest apples on top now, do I blame them? No, I don't,
this is what happens when we give up. Unfairness has an essential principle. All that remains is cynicism. Students,
then, do not see the point of changing the system because their parents did not.
The point of changing the system and their parents didn't see the point, because the schools didn't see the point,
and schools, for goodness sake,
and even rise from the slumber of their indifference to seated.
makes no sense to give everyone an assessment test on same day. We game the things that we ve given up on a try, my best in outliers, but I subtitled the book the story of success and if I learned anything from that afternoon, a pen is that we want to think about success as a word to describe ourselves
progress, but it's not really. People who are successful is the systems around us. Great students and great hockey players come from great teams and great classrooms, and if you want to judge the success of those teams in classrooms, start by looking at you
opposition like when was everyone born, and if we can get that one right,
god help us with everything else
I hope this has all been fun
This makes you
if you to wear your numbers for the balances, will here,
business histories produced by enemies, limited leaving us do, and Jacob psmith with tall yemen and harrison vision, choice
Our editor is Julia barton, our executive powers.
Is meal about perch,
scoring by luis gara, mastering lifeline williams and engineering by nina lawrence fact checking back. He shall Williams.
Special thanks to some on ahead for production to help on this episode, I'm up in Gaza.
Transcript generated on 2022-09-18.