Hey there, listeners just to know before we get started on today's podcast. We talk about with election, scheduled for tomorrow April. Seventh, there is now question stand that hasn't been resolved. As of one we're publishing this as to whether or not that will happen after we recorded the I'd cast governor was causing Tony either is made an executive order aimed at postponing in person voting until June. Now, Republican controlled legislature has challenged Zack you'd have order, and we are waiting to see what will actually happen so stay tuned to the news to find out what happening in Wisconsin. Nonetheless, we were border. This conversation before that executive order, or that challenge are here we got hello and welcome to the five thirty politics quite cast iron deal and drink the EU A surgeon, General Jerome, Adam said over the weekend that this week is going to be quote.

Artist and scientist week of most Americans lives so far. Nearly ten thousand doubts have been attributed to covert nineteen in the U S. So today, we're gonna again spend some time gauging where we are in the arc of the covert nineteen crisis. We also have election to discuss today, grin of voters and mayors around the state. Wisconsin is as of this taping moving forward with it. Tuesday, a watch and even if the demo primary is largely decided? The stakes are still high. Since Wisconsin voters will be deciding on a new state Supreme Court justice here with me to discuss all that our editor in chief, mate, silver hey. How are you doing here also here with us is singer politics, writer, clam alone, Heckler Haven, and managing editor Micro, current, hey, mica, hello, let's begin at taking, talk of where we are on the covert nineteen curve. Neat last week we said that this

pass. Wheat was gonna, be key, foreseeing whether the number of new cases was plaque towing. What did we was that the result think more or less. That was the result. That depends a lot on where Looking in and what you're looking at you know the most local situation right now, perhaps alongside Louisiana and a trade is in New York City in a year, You have begun to see definitely a plateau across I just new cases, and we had a big article up this weekend about how cases themselves are in some ways the worst statistics look out because it so subject to who is being tested. And when and what the legs are. But you Fewer new hospitalizations in New York that first flattening out use however, have more people entering the hospital then leaving it? so it doesn't mean more like at the peak yet, but it system with behavior, where I mean look

to a certain degree. This follows a somewhat predictable course based When such a distance and goes into effect, and by the end of last week, there were different stakes- the sort of distancing in New York but even worse about when you would expect to start to see the curve levelling off and that's. More or less what you did see and there are lots of complicated extra data. One thing is like so yesterday: They, for example, Those were re down on everything, but you know what happens. A lot of things are: there's not much reporting on weekends right, so Nay Sundays, and that money is commissioner, we can, you can get excited and then you get really data Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday, but even if you look at that, you clearly see like there's a plateau now in York in general, in your city, maybe in particular- and then this news is echoing remain a plateau. Is going to start turn down when it turned back up, which would be pretty worrisome, thickets and least likely of the three but Possum

But, like you know, so, if you look nationwide, then if Slovakia, because you have something like almost half the diagnosed cases are in the New York New Jersey, Connecticut area, partly because he does a ton of testing relative to other places. So can have the same peak everywhere in every in every state. So you know. The question is like what about these other hot spots in the south and other kind of me latitude urban areas like Chicago Detour, What about those we discover? New hot spots at like we had been, thinking about yet there had been worded out yet such a little bit by brocaded. There's New York in New York, we expect the peak to come soon in my not, but we hope and expect that will happen in the same position with the data. So far

everywhere else, because people are merely travelling very much anymore right. This is becoming for the time being a localised thing, so ever or else it might not apply as much anything forecast. We have our own forecasts but work. I look at the trend of predict. The national peak still think, maybe a week or two away with a lot of uncertainty. I want to ask Clare, in terms of this being somewhat dependent on when social distancing began. What has that looked like Indifferent states when were the last needs to do it, have all states done it and are Americans actually following the guidelines and stay at home orders will, I think, Fit This sort of famous and all of this for being vocally at the guy mental level very soon or to enforce states or to stay at home orders, and we I've seen a lot of frankly report. In dominated state governments in the south. Now putting in the same social distancing,

earth as coastal city. Which inevitably have had more infections or infections. First, probably because of you know it's: where are they? International ports of entry are in its where our high density populations are so has been interesting to see some of that that regional, I guess, a culture asian, this this new norm, I mean the newer tie- said this very interesting map of Anna, my data, which is a whole separate discussion, but interesting fur for our purposes right now where it talked about, you know these the farthest distances travelled now, I think some kind, that's are necessary with that. In New York might be able to walk to your bodega and get toilet paper where In you know, Jackson oh Florida or ox. The Mississippi Gonna drive for miles to get it to some of that stuff. I think you have to take with the grain of salt, but it certainly the case that certain regions of the country have been slower.

Fourthly, social distancing norms that we should say that the south, as the New Orleans potentially Marty, seated outbreak in the south, as is very serious, so our seems, sort of spattered results and again this is because we are we ve system of federalism, so the federal government can't right now haven't, you know decided to do it and national lockdown kind of thing. I want to say that map that you're, offering to that was published in the New York Times, got a lot of attention because it was really highlighting the south in particular as saying they're, not socially distancing, were there not staying home. I think the question was, you know who has been staying home since March whatever date, it was now what do you make of that data? In particular? Did it mean anything or was it what Clare described in terms of people just having to go further distance to get their goods yeah? I'm pretty sympathetic, eclairs interpretation, and in general, you know there are a lot of lessons that I think

Maybe when things eventually get better, I don't know how many weeks or months that is, I think there are some critics you can make of light weapons doing with this data, because there is a tendency to throw all this data to understand that well and a lot of complaining factors into very attractively design, charts and graphics, when I think sometimes those charts and graphics make the story seem a lot simpler than it is, and I think some of them can be potentially little bit misleading. You know in a place where people have to drive more, not just by the way is not just in the south relative to the north. It's also in the. U S relative to you for example, right there's like the Google mobility and as well, Americans driving more well. You know, Americans, usually if in a lemon Yorker somewhere, they cannot just go, walked down the an I strove to get their bread have to drive in the local store? that can lead to a lot more actual travel. But

As far as I am aware, there is not much risk of catching Corbett. Nineteen in your car So I think you have to account for the lot and by the way I mean I do have enough, you wanna call it an updated or what mentioned on this podcast previously I had been in Kansas City, my partner, and I guess it was like four weeks ago now. When kind of thing going really crazy, and I just made more sense for us for the time being to stay in Kansas City, then immediately come back to New York, but a similar one, you're kind of observing what happens in in a bluish area in a red state and there is lots of social distancing, Kansas City had to stay at home order before the stadiums Re dead, I went running most days and like it was pretty easy to maintain it people are looking to another and very much acknowledging right. You know you go to the girl restore and there are lines painted six feet apart. So people are very careful about the stuff

we this weekend drove from Kansas City back to New York and we went through a bunch of red states. We went through Missouri all the way through and then suddenly Illinois in southern Deanna Kentucky must Virginia and the Panhandle of Maryland and in those places people are practising Celso, distancing right made up of, picture later, you're like a gas station in West Virginia, I can recall my gas, Sound West Virginia or something right or gas away. You know one of the areas that Americans in blue statehood stereotype more than a place in the country right and on the the gas station there. It's like say: ok, please, make sure to practise good, so distancing. While here at this gas station, I think, there's a lot of stereotypes, that are not necessarily borne out by the data in our partly a result of poor interpretations of data. While a couple things one is just on the New York Times did in particular

there were two may maps on that right? One showed per cent change and travel. So would you guys are talking about in terms criticisms of that map where certain areas of the country. Have to travel more, doesn't really apply to the first map. You know day pocketed these. Can teased by whether they were under a stay at home order and to be clear what they were looking at as whether they were at a stand hum home order in late very early marked, in other words relatively early, let's actually not their early, but earlier in this in this crisis, and we are now and what it showed is that counties with state orders, experienced more of an average change and distance travelled and counties without stay at home at all That seems reason reasonable to me

What it also showed is that even counties without stay at home motors travelled last than average, which also seems pretty intuitive and I think matches up with what needs to be done. I, then it was really that second map on that New York Times, peace that really kind of sold out the south. A bit where was just looking at average distance, travelled that that seem not to be accounting for different parts of the country. You kind of travel distant. Different death distances on average MIKE. I want to ask the kind of broad question here, which is looking at the different data that we have, and maybe thinking big picture about this crisis, not just the flattening the curve part of it. Where are we in the scope of this crisis? Right now, at the beginning of April I think I'd go back to what knight said at the top of the show, which is this is in a crisis that unfold

uniformly across the country, different parts of the country are kind of experiencing the upward slope and the peak, and then hopefully, there, the flattening and the downward slope at different times

it seems, like kind of you know, washing the Washington area went to first now. New York now seems like other hot spots, are an upswing, that's where it feels like we are, but I think I would expect so I don't think there's one answer to that question. If that, if that makes sense, I guess why is the? U S government kind of preparing people for this to be the potentially the worst week of it all. Is that represented in the forecasts that were looking outwards, this kind of the beginning of when things get really bad generally like? Where is not coming from that idea, I think but nature correct me if I'm wrong here, I think it's mostly about the data right. Look at it, because a lot of this data is lagging, I think, were reaching appoint now worthless, where like, for example, the death toll,

we'll start to really look bad yeah. So there's something like on average, a for weak lag between when you get infected and if you're gonna die when you die more like a three week lab before symptoms and when you would die, and so, if you start to say, ok the data we see. Undress right now reflects what was happening a month ago, maybe four weeks ago, right that takes us too early march. Really before very many places at all, have any type of stay in place. Orders you. The Red Eagle Bear Tom Hanks day was four weeks ago, Wednesday. So here in that before timeline still in terms of the death data, and so therefore see that's so growing at rate suggested relatively uncontrolled spread in the EU.

As you will finally begin to see the effects of social on the Duff data, as you start to now in some places. The cases data hospitalization data you know are, we Two from now you may begin to see that which is kind of why she might average that's where these models like the HIV model, think where ten, so days away from the peak of hospitalization usage, Motherwit hospitals there, somewhere in between right, dying is what happens at the often of along hospital stay and so hospitalization. Might lag three weeks I ain't three and a half weeks behind. I think one thing in New York is finding is that you really don't have many new people coming. Hospital they tend to stay there, a long time. It's a disease. It takes a long time to run its course. Even Europe is trying to get people out if their relatively healthy. So that's it. That's the turn right is lucky. We kind of animal the lag freight, but really really it's like

some of all these individual curves. I think more people would hope that their pick usage rate rate comes at point in the next seven days right but we are not. I think they wouldn't panic if it didn't, but their hopeful that that might occur right, it's probably not true, and in in Florida, for example, tat we have actually pulling on your pulsars asking Americans how long they expect us all to last and the plurality of Americans, according to the OECD, said that they expect is to go on for two to four months. There is about thirty five percent of Americans and then about twenty to twenty five percent of Americans say to be forty six months. Another twenty to twenty five percent say one to two months: do those expectations from Americans gibe with what health experts are telling us? I mean health experts. Are a kind of telling us we don't know. I think everyone, understandably wants to know when their confined.

Mental end, but I do say This is something I I talk. A lot about was with family and friends is even when we're out of the woods of the highest. Speaking of this is that if this is terrible weak, if this is the weak, when New York city, council inert are telling residents we might have to temporarily bury bodies and in the cities parks which is sort of a terrifying thing to hear it is the worst we Nothing will be normal, socially. I think for quite a long time, even things in the summer I can imagine, a lot of people still implementing social distancing norms, and maybe some people will go back to work, but I think a lot of fundamental things would be different about the country, and so you know it's really. For us to take the advice which, as we just have to follow the course of what the design of how the disease plays out and how our public health measures play and do everything we ve been talking about. Everything is lagging affecting someone. I'm quarantining with was expelled

to the virus, and we only got the notification that we were at risk, nine or ten. He's in so this stuff, that is so lacking in everything- is so lacking that its super hard and I think it's not helped by the fact that for the past, the Trump Administration has stopped short of good that will reopen by Easter line, but that certainly didn't help things wouldn't when we were married, the water, by telling people don't worry it all be over by Easter. I mean this is kind of like you saw the queen go on. You know. This television and kind of say, stiff off upper lip You know this is a open, ended. We should- and I think, that's probably a more accurate and responsible way to talk about it, which is for foreseeable future. We don't know so we can understand, owes me that Americans have a wide range of thoughts about win this war will at I mean it's, you know, as needs has been talking. I've been thinking that this is really the past month, as probably

the biggest exposure that Americans have had to data and the role that he took place in their lives and sort of the the clock organization of flattened the curve, is such a super walkie thing, but you know my dad said the other day right leg and I think it's really interesting and probably teachable moment or Americans. But it's also hard because all of these all this data is about death right needest, talking about well it's about him from when you would get it to a need die, which is true in something talk about, but so alarming for people. So it's it's kind of fast into what people get their heads data and you know in the now seems trivial. The thing that we talk about for most of the time in our politics, podcast american politics- I mean we talk a lot about how people have mobile processing, probabilities and stuff, like that, so work were kind of watching people in real times in these poles.

Sus out or deal with what it means to have such an open ended. Improbability yeah I totally agree that in its, why was I pushing back a little bit on some of that data? it showed that places without earliest at home. Orders saw, The drop in average distance travelled because I do think that look all the data is lagging here right, but feels like, and it seems like public opinion is lagging just much are even more, and I think that part of that is explainable by the political response, starting at the top with tromp hoo hoo consent downplayed. It seemed switch gear that at some point and like bow to the reality, you know that he couldn't reopened economy by you stare, but then, as returned a little bit more of a mixed message and then down the line with you know, mayors and got some governors in a predominantly in red states,

and conservative leaning areas downplaying the severity of this, and so it's like. Ok, if you didn't catch that this will happen, in December January, maybe in February. I Zander, estimating a too then so, will you know I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna, throw public leaders under the bus for that, but, like the public health community, knew by certainly by February, let's say by late February, just played save what should be done: NATO's sameness on the pike ass right it. It was very clear that probably the best course of action was to take fairly draft six steps in the short term, in the hopes that you could send a save yourself trouble in the medium and long term, but it still feels like you know that it says, had a pole and it showed big jumps from March in

share of people. Basically, who are taking this superciliously, who are worried about it, who are concerned about the economy, who were adjusting the lives of this outcome. Stuff Clare was mentioning and it to me that represents a failure, because by March people knew that this was really bad. So the fact that you know what I mean the fact that the public's perception of this crisis had caught up to speed by March, I think, represents a kind of earlier on of communication and leadership and and whatever really MIKE, I mean this is like when this is all over they're gonna teach I mean in every court the world, but a lotta leadership class about clear communication. But I also think maybe this is linked to american studies for this path, gas. But I also think like the nature of America's culture and say he is just total in the twenty first century is totally ill equipped for a crisis like this.

You know we're we're not used to stuff like this were not used to collective action. We don't have a draft we most of us. Don't Amber Worldwide Theo. You know there's a lot of stuff where we're just were soon Her polarize. You know we have really. Core regional stereotypes? You know so there's a lot of things about us that made people and continue to make people suspicious of what the media saying all this stuff, and so it's it's like us, It's a swirling thing of all these factors. I mean I I guess I for the most part, M a little more impressed with the american people. Now. You know people seem to have pretty realistic expectations for the length of this right. They don't actually believe that, while I'm at to work in two weeks if you look at approval, ratings governing dissenters implored actually had some pretty media, Europe will ratings in Nepal out today, with perception that he was slow to

whereas, like other, do wine in Ohio has gotten very good numbers lightly in Trump we're talking before actually get amateur abound, threatens a people seem to it actually prefer the responsiveness We are a little too early to start regulating about when the kind of locked down to other measures, and I actually think that cities should be thinking about this, and state should be thinking about this, because there are worlds were able to get relatively back to normal and certain benchmarks are had sooner and world where we are and which will bring, Hence on some things that are out of our control, but ass, something tat are the controller policymakers governments beating like what procedures are there to test people tomorrow, people who have the disease. What things can we keep in place? knocked down the spread. Things are getting back to normal. You know these things are all super duper important and it seems like policymakers, r R, generally very concerned about women at peak. Yet by the way another meeting is like: how can we permanently?

apparently ramp up our hospitalization resources rights. There are fewer problems with we haven't, Peter. Their disease comes along in a future where we start see more evidence. It places have begun to decline. Then those debates that we start to get to have right. He succeeded in ITALY relatively soon where are they have to some extent a debate in the north and with the Prime Minister are talking about well, if you can show you have the antibodies, you can go back to work and well maybe they'll. Just let young people go back to work. That's definitely started to personally to the top and look- and I would say like these at that point. If you she solid evidence for say too, we see that things are done not just plateau in then I think they are actually more interesting debates to her about would create ass were making and about which we have realistic, unlike before it was just like. Ok no matter whether you're, on a worst case scenario, a best case scenario,

so pretty bad or medium case scenario under all three of those still made sense for the short term for three to six weeks to socially distance in eight freeze serious way, it's less clear what the with the actual policy outcome is when you're declining in return for a second peak and how your managing that that's a morbid some uncertainty in debate. So Tyler Cowan wrote this piece about how the afterlife of the pandemic will shape. New York city in particular, and I'm kind of they were peoples. I don't have anyone here, read it, but some of it was about nay, I'm guessing you read it. Could you read everything on the internet is something about how ok old people will flow out of the work will become a younger city. Rents will go down, but also he talked about this like social strata education by those who have gotten the disease, which may be ties in a little, but here too like ok, if you have get a bodies, you can go to work. Do you

by the time I need to buy the Tyler Cowan Theory that, like the texture of the city, will change not just in ok, you you're the antibodies? You go back to work, but it will change like the social structure via like who has had the disease in who hasn't. Not necessarily and no- and I order I mean we're. Ok, you're right, I, except for critical workers. I mean people better in this kind of assent, just a positive right and if some extent, if some people to support that you have an economy, a being who would like, oh here is a body can go to, but only if you had tested positive right and to some extent, if some people Supposing that you have an economy, then there may be some. We have heard immunity which will protect people from further opera extra. We still know how many people have this right. Maybe it turns out that fifteen percent of all people worker. Something happened. I know no right. We have no idea, no idea so

you dont. If I buy that in terms of the long term future, I mean look There is a medium term and long term in the medium term, switches on term when you get a vaccine or under other courses. If it has, so fast people are immune because people had it hurt him yet a benchmark, for that is something like a team we might hope sooner. But eighteen months is realistic and too fast timeline for it axing in that we're all, I think, People are gonna, like maybe kind of rebel against all the same faces, that everybody has had two made for a period of time right by the way it's not like. This is like it two month long planned, retreat or vacates right, people are dealing with a straight. Worrying about loved ones, being shack, worrying about themselves being SEC worrying about their economic lives being significantly disrupted worrying about taking care

children and taking care of relatives or they might have do not have to ordinarily down too much smaller luxuries. Like you, aren't you get a coffee because you're working on a project? Well, they copy. So an open one of my groceries. We have put a mask on her should do that. The grocery store, please put a mask on right, when you go to a player in the playground, his clothes right, and so people are dealing with action like a very negative set of circumstances, kind of being more isolated in working from home. So in some ways the equilibrium was before for often people went out where, on the one hand, people like ok, well nigh, relies upon out or another people, there's a spread of a pandemic, either hand people. Can we like actually that time when I was thing at home. More I social, having a really miserable terrible time and I'm a kind of value people's company like a little bit more.

You know, I don't know about us. That's after eighteen months and kind of what happens in the interim is is potentially pretty different. You know I do think that there are lessons. I hope one problem with signing generals like something happened than their own protecting events from like terrorist attacks to pandemics, to super volcanoes. That might happen once every decade or once every century went every half century or something right, we take more actions once that occur for a period of maybe a couple of DEC Aids right and then a kind of wears off a little bit rights, Hopefully we like small interventions right. What are things that cities can do? You know I'm happy something as simple as like maybe certain types of material that, whenever strap in the subway any work right whoever material you use, that Unita Michel that doesn't kind of hold corona, like viruses, for as law, right, very subtle, very subtle, but like it, a little things help like there. It does seem like in Asia, where you see

her back faster and evil can point to mass boring, behaviors. It just seems like having had experience with other outbreaks at just like the little little innovations you know, maybe even kind of cost free, in the long run, just kind of push that spread down a little bit of time in different ways, and it seems like american special makes it. It should be more aware of that. But, like I am very sceptical of like by the way. Ninety eight percent of time the changes that people Famagusta occur, match people's political preferences, Andorra, they're, kind of critique of american society, France's no corona virus. I, like her one of our rules. I want to break for my non partisan. Just I am against her out of Irish. Aren't want with that. Let's move onto our next segment and a lot of these conversations are conversations at work, and I continue to have over the coming months. I know there's a lot

or to say, and we will get to it. Let's move on to the elections scheduled for Tuesday in Wisconsin, but first today's podcast is brought you buy, audible, audible is the leading provider of spoken word, entertainment and audio books, ranging from best sellers to memoirs, news and business every month. Members get one credit to pick any title. Two audible originals from a monthly selection. I personally have decided to listen to one of my favorite books as opposed to re. Read it it's of human bondage by Somerset, mom, so a great way to re, read a book or read a new book for the this time in audio book format, there are plenty of selections on audible for listeners to choose from there. Actually, thousands and thousands. If you were to listen to all of audible content,

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Call the special session of the state legislature this weekend to try to postpone this states election on Tuesday, but the Republican controlled legislature declined the governor had also seriously called for sending a male ballot to every registered voters in Wisconsin, which the legislature also declined. So, as of this taping, the election will happen tomorrow. Including in person voting, are plenty of things that could potentially go poorly. There's been a large request for male ballot, likely more than the state has ever process. And in my walkie for example, which normally has a hundred eighty pulling places, only five will be open, so mica, why didn't was content to postpone its election? Like all the other states voting in April? I think at this point. Sixteen states have postponed primaries or fifteen states one territory, including Porter Rico. Why isn't was constant? Postponing intellect

To be honest, I'm not really sure they answer to that question do like. Do. We actually know the answer to that question? They should a right. I think that's It dysfunction, but why partisanship. You now, ok, so Wisconsin I mean Galen. You should actually, as a person with lots of it, was she's had yeah. You should you should answer this, but I was content. Has always been at the forefront of, or recently has been at, the forefront of american political dysfunction. What say and they are upholding that venerable tradition. Here you know that and our tony avars, I think, was really late in calling for the election to be cancelled. The republican late legislature, for partisan, these ends does not want to

allow methods of voting basically make it easier to vote, not in person, because those method double as ways that expand the electorate and help Democrats in the long term but I'm not sure, there's a good reason why they're doing it is there. I think that in some ways your crack, the state legislature, sees voting by male having a balance and to like everybody in Milwaukee who might have usually voted in person late. This lawsuit that was, you know, decided on Friday. That's now headed potentially to the: U S Supreme Court. One of the plaintiff was sold to the poles, which is in Milwaukee, drives a lot of people from black churches to the poles to vote in person where men voting, may not be as common as it is among older whiter, Wisconsin Knights, who live in more rural areas, who might have been planning on. You know voting by now, all along so certainly there is a partisan dynamic here.

I think maybe Tony ever was waiting to allow the court to rule as to whether or not to postpone. This he's claim this entire time that he doesn't have the authority to postpone it action on his own. He has to rely on the state legislature, other you know. Democratic strategies in the state have said that he should go ahead and use has emergency powers, although you know, does a Democrat want to set the example that an executive can use emergency powers to postpone on alike, unilaterally when I don't know me there's some fear that Trump could ultimately try to in November. I don't know if that's the logic behind all of this, but yeah. There are a lot of Corky and some bad faith logic here in terms of what happened in the set up for this elapsed. For sure, so you gonna end up with a really top election dimension. Galen predicament urban parts of the stay. There is not enough.

Coworkers workers, the number of places is gonna, be weighed down every in the National Guard, their brain Africa. So ok, so those places are gonna, end up more crowded right because you're going to have I'll, be fewer people overall, but also the number of Places where their gathering is gonna be weighed people can be confused about where the vote, where they're pulling places it's just danger in open and it's dangerous Also, you know, ok, the democratic presidential primary is, sleep over, so maybe the stakes aren't so high there, but you have the States Supreme Court re stare that could, you know have have what ultimately probably rule on whether they can purge all these voters from the list for two thousand and twenty and you're going to an election. Where you know urban parts of the state are probably going to be disproportionately

prevented, or it can be made harder to vote in more urban part of the state which are more democratic, so yeah it. It should be interesting for the record. It also that states Supreme Court that is likely to rule on the congressional and state legislative maps of the state uses for the next decade, because tony givers are still going to be in control and twenty twenty one likely stellar republican state legislature. They won't agree, it will go to the state Supreme Court and there are basically going to draw the line. So like four Wisconsin, a lot is at stake here. Other states Emmy, Ino Galen. You brought up the idea that, like maybe maybe avers, is Democratic governor doesn't want to use these Peter big executive powers to kind of throws wait around, although Not now, when you know I mean it's, it's it's fishing in all the Ohio use. You know that the pop the top public health officials sort of declared a public health emergency, and so they kind of hid behind it,

one way to say it, but you know they use. That is the shield of like this is a legitimate public health emergency. We need to do it. I don't know I find Wisconsin's. Situation perplexing also totally explainable because of political psychology, and I, if I were a voter going to the Poles tomorrow, risks and it would be a nervous making situation, and I kind of wonder how that will We know whenever the next sort of big set of legislative elections It is how that plays rate this this sort of pre screwed up tension between the governor and the state legislature, the need doing no like these potentially partisan, strategizing based on assumptions about voting by male. Do we know that, like a universal vote by mail would benefit democrats- and maybe, if you dont, know specifically about whiskey

nationally, if in November, say using this as a preview for what could happen down the road if enough Every registered american voter were to get a ballot in America does not necessarily have partisan implications are totally clear where the direction our goes in Oregon, you know and to might offer, on the one hand, older people other to take be. Voting by male wear it. Option right that might help Republicans to data point. Different data point well seats at habit like caliph. Washington or again you know in the sun sent Arizona recent have more blue than other states that maybe maybe not now what about two different data point that the data, in general, when you make it easy people about Democrats, like that, Instead, I will write another data point, its current of Irish related, okay, well, older people are more vulnerable to coordinate Irishman. So if you had a case where, like people

if a measure arrest, Verona Virus- and maybe they don't want to turn out to vote so steadily, not clear if you today policy in trouble, an agreement and Mcconnell there's universal vote by male. It's not clear I nobby issue that would benefit in November. This people kind of wrote blowing on their priors in that Europeans, like ok, we frankly, I mean is one of the critics that you need to make about the Republican Party right. They tend to make it harder for people to vote and their first instinct is. I dont trust things that make it easy peopled about, even in time run a virus, and they can overcome night. You, I think, ultimately, it's gonna be state by state, but This is actually like one reason a little monkey aside here one reason why the electoral colleges may be useful in a case like this is at six different decisions about what you can vote by mail or not, that might lead to very different turn out different. The state, if you are having say second wave in November, that might lead to

There still is twenty electoral college in the and the popular vote, But it's a reason why, if, in some state, you have to venture to the polls in a mask you know what a suit right to like buyer hazard, suit dynamics, turning here, obviously to bow and somebody who's. Gonna drop a battle in the mail will you can bet which did sickening I turn out and therefore not be a reason. Contain things. Electoral college to each state has adopted a number of votes, but also how many people turn out. That's a very want beside it will not please. People who do not like the Electoral College, like in some ways you after college actually is a helpful, Maybe they have in the event of something like this, where the different rules and how you vote in every state. I mean we should also. Say and just mentioned that there is a rope poured out from politico that talks about the Trump teams stake in

not changing election laws because of the colonel virus crisis, the idea that they don't want to change the voting rules for it, but November election, that is potentially third by are you knows it home pandemic status, so that something to keep in mind. I think we'll talk about this more broadly in other pod cas, but that's that certain a plan and denounce the November elections seems like this this thing away now, but it is, is certainly being thought about by in a lot of pain, lawyers and and strategies. The army trump was pretty blunt about this. On Fox NEWS, you don't fox and friends what he was talking about. The house bill that was, you know, part

it shall proposal in this two point: two trillion dollar stimulus package. Unusually, they wanted to include universal vote by mail and the money in order to do it and Trump set about that quote the things they had and there were crazy. They have levels of voting that, if you ever agree to it, you never have a Republican elected in this country again. So he is clearly making the assumption that expanding the opportunity to vote will harm republicans in serve amazing. He said that I mean maybe not, but to students, yeah. I don't actually dont think it's amazing anymore, both in regards to Trump, and I think plenty of Republicans have sort of like spoken, sub text as text as regards two like making it harder to vote, but as clear said that political peace is pretty amazing. Well, maybe I'd actually, maybe it's amazing. But you know the trunk campaign is worth working with you the officials all these states to block the voting or from those actually talking about this. What Perry a couple weeks ago,

but you can imagine. Democrats have been pushing these reforms for a while to be clear, that's probably believe in expanding the vote. They also want to do it because they think it'll help them politically right, but we must, we might have been much better prepared, Aleck, Torridly first since, like corona virus had a lot of these reforms been put in place, and I ll be really interesting to watch. You know the efforts to stop some of these reforms in the context four a virus. I think it's just another example of politics doesn't stop just because of a pen, little thing like a pen we might not pay attention to it. As much I mean that's, I think. That's the thing. That's really whose thing who is truly pang. Closed. Closed closed closed, close attention to all this Dick stuff right like I think so many Americans are just focused on the life or death stuff, and so eventually we, We will emerge from this. These blind,

Amazon kind of reading about coverage in- and I do think this dynamic will become more apparent to more Americans. You know you could see in the late summer this kind of becoming like convention Cry from Biden right? That is much skill. On August Convention, which I do not accord to attending, Oh, he might say, look at the Republicans, taking advantage of the crowd of irish right and trumpets. There's. You can just see it becoming this back and forth already right, like it's not to be that creative to know. What's going to happen so this stuff already or murdered, but you're, seeing at the table being set now over sure I mean when policy had that in the initial House bill, you had Republicans describing it as a push for ballot, harvesting, saying that if you send a ballot, every registered voter in America you'd be sending it to people who move to people who had died.

And you know those balance can be filled out by whoever wanted it. You know, like kind of going back to if you take this measure of that word, expand the opportunity or the convenience of voting that it could lead to election fraud, maybe perhaps the irony being that the most recent case we saw of that kind of election fraud was in North Carolina, ninth congressional district, and it was a republican crew that was basically harvesting ballot in favour, of of the Republican and that congressional election, but like ok, so just to come back to US cotton momentarily before we wrapped things up. We talked about that state Supreme Court election. What about the primary? So maybe it's not competitive, but what does the picture? Look like needs on the ground in Wisconsin colliding Sanders might have thought at some point that you could get a win in Wisconsin

patients have not been taking as many poles of the primary aim, because it's not that comparative b, because there's more important things like the global pandemic, going on where there was a very high quality of polar Wisconsin connected last week from market universal law school? It had Biden ahead, sixty two to thirty, four, so by twenty eight points and under water, circumstance that be appalled that would kind of leave my mouth little bit. Agape because like The point is not a market expect, Joe by to win, was by what should be one to burn. Sanders is best states, because our not a lot of pulls we don't know where the law is in I outlier relative to other data. That's the only recent poll, the state, but that bode well, for Saunders if you were to lose by half. I would simply really bad if you were to women's rights and by five points that you are here, my twenty or thirty points a kind of catch up now right, but let us

reporting in the watched impose, I think over the weekend. That said, there are some a burning us advisors- are now saying. Ok, it's time to time to drop out. Other people are saying now: it's not an that's there is still thinking enter advisement. All these different points of view. Look if you lose in Wisconsin by doubling. Then I'm sure you'll have people online her saying what would happen if it wasn't for corona virus. Ok, fair enough! It's a very difficult time to have an election right now at this in time. We think that might lead to more pressure for bringing in a quiet? I think there are questions about like what does he actually accomplish. Right now. I don't think anything. It's happened. Alas, I mean it's also disrupted by the fact that we have this pandemic. Ok, but the fact is that kind of four during and after word for all those from stage, there is evidence that Democrats have decided decided in big numbers for Joe Biden and offer Bernie Sanders and

I am not sure what Bernie Sanders having to prove or what she would have by saying in the race, and there is some risk. Look like you're, a spoiler and losing your love, because you kind of losing all these states by big margins at times is very complicated, but do you think he's gonna drop before June, when everyone is gonna, have their prime. I mean I just I would say the they washed her story. This weekend was unusually candid about putting people's names on the record right, yeah yeah, Who were telling Miranda drop out that does happen. Unless there is a meter, it's pretty serious or there is a pre serious message me to the caddy right. I think I think Sanders himself if he had his brothers is the kind of person Wanna stay until June, so I mean

they make sense of the report was explicit and and more forceful, but but it's still, in the words of George W Bush. He still the decider right at the end of the day. So, that'll be interesting to watch the drama of Bernie play out. As always I mean just as a heads up for when we do get these result in Wisconsin and actually part of that federal court decision that came down on Friday was that the state will be accepted, ballots that our postmarked after election day, and so it will be about a week before you know if this sticks there's an appeal that will actually get the result of the primary or that state Supreme Court raised in our in Wisconsin. But I would be curious if Milwaukee is the place where it hardest to vote in person, and maybe a lot of people have not gotten male ballot.

Essentially hurt Biden there because Dane County witches were Madison, as is much stronger area from Bernie Sanders, which is a lot of kind of white liberals, whereas Milwaukee is a lot more african american Democrats, working class Democrats, etc. So that would be an interesting dynamic to watch their if not Marquette, pause way off. I don't know if it's true necessarily because you have, on the one hand you have after Americans, which, very strongly for Joe Biden underhand you have I young, liberals who are mainly Bernie Sanders is best group and so Chicago right, like I think actually like county, why? Right in like Wayne County, Michigan, Cook, County Illinois or all of Chicago right, then actually Bernie does as well or better, sometimes in those places. Overall, because he gets some after Americans,

the younger after Americans were younger and the cities right here. Pretty well over hispanics you. There are a lotta, but there are some of their own and urban population, mostly in in in the western city is right, really well what kind of younger, more liberal urban whites, and so it actually like. Not us is so clear, meanwhile Biden very much unlike Clinton in twenty sixteen other kind of my Clinton away Does actually pretty well in these outlying areas first, some contacts. Now the only count Hillary Clinton, one in Wisconsin and two thousand. Sixteen was Milwaukee County and while I think those dynamics exist in a lot of state in Wisconsin at least those like progressive with John, why liberals are concentrated more in Madison Indian County, whereas less so in Milwaukee there's a higher concentration of black.

Arteries and malarkey that's burn up on an abundance. I like in some ways, Bernie is getting the Hilary Map as much is as binding is right it's a burning is going to be very well the listener out of date, an indian touting, ok out of any place in the country that is Bernie Country, Madison Wisconsin. Is it no doubt about that, but but leaving us aside, my parents, but How'd you Wisconsin alumni. Leaving that aside Mama This kind of, not necessarily like it wasn't twenty sixteen, especially the Midwest, whereby it is doing quite well in the number on the West leaders the badger cup, I'm a bad. Your car was mostly now with this beer. You ve got some of the hair to prove it. I think you are a anything left to say about the election was causing tomorrow, we're ready to rock stay. Save people yeah yeah. All drugs aside

stay safe. Hopefully they have provisions in place to help the people who do want to vote in person, Verona person, but let's leave it there. Thank you Nate! Thank you haven't really ever thanks. Clare, thanks Karen and thanks my god. Thank you. My name is drink. Twenty child is in the virtual control room you can get in touch, might uniting us at pie at five thirty dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us questions or comments if Europe and the leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, cast store or tells about us. You can also find five thirty, eight on Youtube on for listening and we'll see her