Who hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen undertook the saga continues. As of this taping, seventy five percent of the precincts in Iowa have reported there caucus result. We would still like to see form results, but what we have so far is representative of how we expect the final tally to shake out. So here's the picture Buddha judge leads. Terms of state delegate, equivalence, that's how the of the. I will historically, what been decided he's at seven percent sanders, as at twenty five percent warring eighteen percent Biden. Sixteen per cent club a sharp thirteen reset now, we also have popular vote data, and so looking at that data, the final alignment, the popular vote, see

There is a leads at twenty six percent than Buddha judge at twenty five percent than Warren at twenty bite in a somewhat distant forth at fourteen percent club a shower. Twelve percent, so we're gonna dig into those result. A bit more and here with me to discuss our editor in chief need sulphur how's it going busy few days here had a little time to rest up No not really are high. Also with us is power. Its adverse, our frost in scenario. Hagen, I've been battered, tired, good and managing editor Michael Car. And how are you I'm good? Actually, I was sick I'm getting better now now, Sarah little by little corona virus outbreak you're. Here, as I think that a big deal there are actually very positive reviews of the baritone that you brought the podcast on Monday night, my brother sent me a text message that he prefers my voice that way so

Claire Malone is on the road in New Hampshire at the moment, and we're gonna check in with her a little bit later were also going to talk briefly about the Senate Impeachment trial vote today by the time you are list to this, we expect that President Trump will have been acquitted by a near party line. Vote We did, however, get news today that Republican Senator Mitt Romney of Utah we'll be voting to convict the president as well democratic senator. Jones of Alabama were still waiting on a couple others, but Romney will be the first senator in american history to vote to remove a president of his own party and a Senate impeachment trial we will get to that later. But for now, let's focus on the results in Iowa, nay. How much do we think these numbers with seventy five percent of the precincts reporting could change by the time we get? The final results well justified, a hundred percent to the upshot. Their number say what we have so far as quite representative, that Buddha churches and eighty six percent favorite to win

majority of state delegate, equivalence, which is the most the media is being the to even out weird that send This is about a sixty forty favorite to win the final vote after me, occasion, and it sends a clear to win the initial of preference let's say by the way, Sanders did not gain very much. From that initial grouping to the second grouping. Not many people that we're not with Bernie, actually join Bernie. In fact, if we look at our model internal check this out, if you get twenty four percent state wide, by three percent state, while the first vote, and only twenty six one percent. On the final vote, weaker than we would have expected on average means that Bernie was not persuading people. These rooms to join him. If they were behind him initially, which is a little bit of a bear. A sign with that said. Democratic party of all parties should not really be alternative measures, in my view, to the popular vote right states, Dillinger homes are kind of like you,

a college or something right when they put more weight on rural areas, and that is what currently putting go church. He may catch up in the vote relocation is close, zero eight percentage points, but you know that is the reason why most media accounts currently have benefited leading. I was because of this, this rather stew This thing called state, Dugald equivalence, and it is- noting that that's traditionally how the winner of Iowa would have been reported on Sunday. Additions are dumb and it's totally fail to criticise, or by just saying that every winter of Iowa. That we thought had in the past has been a winner of those state delegate. Equivalent I agree with Nate that it definitely it I thought of the Electoral College to actually, as as a the good proxy for it, and it's weird and you could call dumb but after the fact making a big deal out of it

that little Weird M reminds me of people whose sort of warlike, while trumps, not my president, because the electoral College on TAT look like it. It is what it is we had it going in. You knew about this system beforehand. Let me as a big critic of the state or the equivalent of intimacy two things number one sure it was totally obvious how the media would cover this ahead of time we talked to different organizations. We had a meeting with the international community. I say that it came and looked all the networks right we talk to other journalists. We talk to our colleagues at a b c and a kind of it seems I thought, be a little My thumb on the scale foreshadowing opponents because, like that is traditional way right and it's what we get the AP checkmark but like when you turn CNN was yesterday its. I am losing track of time right turn on CNN. First results come in, they put it at your head. It's not Richard wins one counting centres ahead, one count right, so I'm not

We totally anticipated how the media would cover it. With that said, I the better defence is like these, where the rules of the game that organic abided by and punitive had a deliberate strategy to do. In the rural counties right he had a lot of investment and I went a lot of money there. Maybe would have spent more time in DES and I was city and the suburbs if he had been altered. Wilson and one that other way as well so saw but I am sympathetic to end Democrat who says look at the popular vote, I mean that seems like it should be. The official position of the party, I think, the reality is right that we have a long way to go before there is any official winner in this nominating process and for now for our purposes at five, thirty eight. We have three data points that we can work off in terms of analyzing what happened and how things will shake our going forward. So Let's leave that therefore, now Sarah, how surprising are these results compared with the data and forecasts that we had going into Iowa its clear that

due judge over performed where we had him in are pulling average and where he been in recent polls before Iowa it there's The question whether or not you think thirsty the ease are fair metric that he did well on that front sanders I think, performed right about where we thought he would. I think the biggest surprise I was that bite and did so poorly right. I mean in the unreleased dm are pulled that was captured him in fourth as well. I thought it was surprising, though, that he did come in overall forth in Iowa when really we had him as projected maybe a second. There was a surprise to me so Sanders actually did. If you look at the vote after realignment, which is what we project, we predicted centres for twenty eight percent and he got twenty six percent it is actually not far from or twenty percent, but a little to the to the low side. We have a very wide range ranging between fourteen and forty three. So all these people are well within the range but like because sand did not convert very many people,

on the second preference than he performed a little bit that process applies in Iowa and Nevada and then for states also to have right choice voting, but it's more a ominous sign about burning. What are you too kind of consolidate the to the party later, and I don't want to eyes too much but like here you have this result and I were that's pretty good for Bernie he's move up in our model. The models are by now right Our model, he probably has he chance of anybody. To win, even though no one has a particularly solid chance ray it's pretty wide open and instead the discussion on line kind of concerns like oh. You know the credit party? How dare they screw the sob and they did make a massive screw up, like so many things, actually helps Andy for if it turns out that Buddha church wins the metric immediately, tension to its actually kind of nice for Sanders. That is seen as messy and headed pretty well, and I don't know, but centre testing

but at some point from being a factional cannot and having the largest faction to being the candidate countries majority of the party, if not the whole party and this is a little bit bearish for that year and that's been our question about sand All long is is he more than a factual candidate? I dont think I were shows otherwise. Doesnt proof he is a factional cannot but doesn't show that he hasn't by the way, bearing the lead a little bit here and Sarah got out what it is, which is look Buddha judge. I think over performed the average vote chair projection and our forecasts a bit sanders under underperformed bet, they're all well within the kind of cot, cough eighty percent confidence intervals we had, but the big,

so here is bite in way, underperforming even Biden as a service that is like within that confidence in a vote, but Biden did terribly in Iowa he's a former vice president. He was the nominal front runner in this raise, even if he wasn't favorite favorite any finished forth. Now I was New Hampshire. These were never supposed to be super strong states fur for abide in, but there's the there's a lot of space between ok, this isn't a great state for me and I'm finished Fourth, credit I have more, though then Buddha Judge, because booted judge over performed has posed by a decent, and now he was a pretty Mohammed. Third, and actually ended up coming in with twenty five percent in the reallocation that he was in the tea I think you guys are, I think, that's kind of wrong. I mean I think it's neglecting

how much uncertainty there is- and I were poles right, especially with all this realignment and stuff. So we had been a judge in the polls he's at fifteen, sixteen, but that doesn't account for undecided limit from that it doesn't happen. Fuck that you have ten percent parents were non viable and almost every district. So we had a forecasts. A twin nineteen percent after a alignment Forty five percent, but with a range of five to thirty three, so he's kind of an that fairly think further range, but so what what's wrong yeah. So I I agree that Buddha Judge, I don't think bridge over performed by much. I think primary poles or an once. You advocate undecided, end you know realignment votes. I think a budget. Well, there's no bones about that, but he must see in part here. Up, just because Biden moved down right and and worn, I think, did warn underperform a little bit. She ever performed actually says The hidden story here, as I got very much press coverage, but she was forecast when sixteen per

after realignment one twenty percent. No, I agree with that MIKE I mean I think, like binding as the story right, because biggest winner in Iowa. I mean it little, when we can this conversation about kind of how you split credit, but the biggest practical winners, the church- and he is out of the top four or five candidates shot for at least the one who has the most trouble taking that moment, might be substantial, but turning them. Like an actual winning map. Because of his lack of support side of college of white voters So you know, every candidate was kind of hoping that If someone when I when it was then that it was Buddha church which again, is that discount. I mean we're, obviously always taking one step ahead here you. The first major gay candidate for and he wins the only hunters who has are our co wins contest, probably that we had so far. That's big, historic and You know he's the mirror of South in Indiana, and it is why

the co winners about the winner of the IRA caucus right- that's like that's pretty It's a kind of story that might lead to a big bouncers already some evidence that in New Hampshire, that he has about a new Hampshire is another state that he could win win. From there. That's why the model is like. Ok is still a longshot, but it doesn't mean that would accomplish. Wasn't it May you mentioned that Buddha judges Base is college, educated, white voters. We have a little more data now on what the candidates base is actually are, and it seemed like Buddha Judge did well in rural, as in particular, actually, sir. I think you walked into some of the cross tabs on the entrance poles. What does the support? Look like for these different candidates? A lot of it I think ideas we already had going in, for instance, Sanders does really well with young people right, especially those under the age of thirty. It starts to taper. Off

round the age of forty were Buddha, Judge bite and have more of an advantage, I'm similarly to what knight was saying earlier about Buddha judge having a real strategy of going for rural counties in Iowa. That was reflected also in the exit polls and forms of support. But again I think so. Into violence lack you know. If his Debility argument is, I am for the in class. I can win back the Obama Trump voters. He did not perform well with. Voters at least those without a college degree they broke for Sanders, which I thought was telling as well for casting add and unfortunately, because I was so predominantly white- there's not a lot of cross tabs on race there to better understand what can spaces, could look like moving forward but Sanders definitely on the age front, then also for the more couldn't unquote working class seems to have an advantage. I want talk

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How did the I will carcasses their muddled results? Change our forecast, it's good news. If you're, fan of uncertainty and care. Through, isn't it we should say it is based on the probabilistic ass? politics will probably win, but we don't give him full credit for yet, and also even if you were to win one count, we still give prescribe to burn. Based on these other popular vote counts, will explain that on the site later on, we actually have centres up to eight forty percent chance of winning the delegate majority. He was at about thirty before Iowa We have Biden down to twenty percent from about forty two percent before we have put it up less than you might think five percent- he was at four percent before but for a majority to look for a plurality then these at eight percent and I'm happy little conservative on his balanced but remember the models going through quench one state at a time? And is saying that

actually I'm not sure that your viable after New Hampshire, we have to prove it to me by getting a bit national poles and poles and states in the south and so forth. We actually have warrants chances up a little bit? Maybe this are funded in the media narrative about the race, but she is up to an absence. A majority at thirteen? we plurality, apparently because somewhere, where was she before she obeyed down to like five of a majority prices, because the model thinks that the front in national poles, namely Biden, is Malta decline Sanders is likely stuck neutralise will see what happens right and so all of a sudden if you're sitting at fifteen percent like Warren, is and burning twenty two or something you're, not that far out a lead. Different. When you someone at twenty six, twenty seven like Biden, wasn't us a marginal factor right, but in other areas, helps even Bloomberg. Now gets a little bit on the board very low.

But when a majority but like he is at his highest number of delegates that we forecast and look at this now, so we now have bloom, four, two hundred and thirty nine delegates by skipped over one big headline here, which is that nobody is doing well then you know literally nobody and no one will say majorities up to twenty six percent from from seventeen percent before. And so yeah Mica and Sarah. How much does this change your conception of the race just that one messed up night in Iowa. It seems like has and things up? A lot actually yes and no either. I think the big shake up is bought is the decline in violence, chances, but actually Biden. As I said earlier, wasn't an overwhelming favorite to begin with. So it is, what made said earlier and that its Ike storyline going into Iowa was here. This is a wide open rays and something of a mass the sword,

I'm coming out of Ai Weiwei- is like this is really wide open and a huge mass. I think, I think that's fair, I'm remember now, but right before Iowa it was sanders and bite and were kind of more clustered right and it was still wide open. That's definitely how we described at but war and better judgment, both more thought of this kind of long shots and a bite. He's just fallen so dramatically, and any new Hampshire is another state for him. That's not particularly stronger he's not expected to do well, but give me wonders, you know, say Sanders wins. New Hampshire, then say Sanders. You know goes on to win Nevada with bite and really be able to make a recovery at that point in South Carolina, particularly if it's not by coming in second were biting and third, but it's like biting coming in. Fourth, unlike closure, was what how many points from Biden.

Yes, she wearily I shan't vast available narrative is, I don't know I mean in the end. I think Warren was closer to Biden. Then she was to the front runners right defending its There is a lot at the alarm was was a distant third fights things got it, perfect fish, solid forth, the problem is that it no good version of fourth place and in New Hampshire, we can give you our forecasts for New Hampshire too. So currently, hinders, has a sixty eight percent chance of winning I'm sure you wanna get Here, too, I work Looking at you, gotta catch us everything. Nineteen percent chance. Born a seven percent Chance Biden, a six percent chance Club, which are a one percent chance right way. I want to focus on four seconds. Joe Biden has a six percent chance of winning New Hampshire, After having my nose in the books of the past two to three months on primary history, I know

There has only been one instance of somebody coming on to win their parties nomination after winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Since nineteen. Seventy six that one person was Bill Clinton in ninety two, so you don't. Obviously that data is what it is. I didn't, may still have a twenty percent chance of winning the nomination. You know things are still up in the air. However, historically speaking, if only happen once somebody hasn't one hour by hour order handler. Historically speaking, though it's a small sample size, I understand, historically speaking there more sophisticated waste to look at it right. Here's the way I would put it. I think the million dollar question is the one Sarah brought up, which is if binding, can't manage a kind of review, sort of narrative in the first few state, how well does his support in South Carolina

particularly among non white voters, black voters in particular. How well does that hold up? That's the million dollar question here right because, first of all, we could get a surprise in New Hampshire right, so surprise could be Buddha. Judge would be a little surprising, though you know, following up with, momentum for my wife, you can kind of sea at right, binding problem. Is that if you were turned pinpointed surprise in in New Hampshire. Like remember, Obama wins. I went in two thousand eight everyone thinks he's gonna win New Hampshire than Clayton. Does you think war, and what actually play that role this year before bided, you don't, I mean like even if it's a surprise in New Hampshire, it might not be binding, and then the question is what happens to his support among black voters. If he's losing, losing I'm not sure it's obvious study that it goes way right like we had We have storylines through the course of this prime about violence I'm balls Biden gaffes. The dinner really make it

Danton his support. Now, maybe nobody was paying attention to. And now they're paying attention now, maybe maybe his support just hold on. I went South Carolina and he's fine. Let me say one thing out of, but it, but it's a caution. Schlichten. I would have a credit party abundance of caution You don't want to throw your line with. I would Democrats night. The model is in The painting that Biden will decline national one New Hampshire Poles as a result of Iowa. That hasn't happened yet or it hasn't are actually going to decline and one that you have proposed, but likely to have very much evidence of that. Yet right so it's possible just like you know based doesn't care about that. Much has been pretty study before he declines from twenty six percent three percent which is in great but like. I would still leave him, probably in this three or away pile up. Sanderson, and no one and british gesture would have a right of mobility, which is quite far behind and more. We should say so like if you I just kind of old steady. Then it's a different story.

The question is like right now, with binding declining. There is no obvious winner in South Carolina right. Bernie definitely has more. After Mary and has been exporting like Buddha touch, for example. So am I him if Biden is really in trouble, but clearly like you wouldn't say that Bernie Britain is inherently a strong South Carolina. But neither I mean all the northern Riah centres and more innovative Europe Super Fricking Northern Club look super northern midwestern, here's a question: ok, we have this new forecast in New Hampshire. If you take everyone's chances of winning as a stock price. Basically Sanders has a two and three and sixty eight percent Buddha- Judge nineteen percent- bar in seven percent bide in six per cent club Bashar. Essentially one percent whose price do you think is most undervalued, restless really well price. To me, I think,

outta judge is undervalued there well, remember we're gonna, give him credit for three quarters of a ban sir. Seventy percent of about space on not actually knowing a final Iowa result. Yeah, so you'll move up a bit further. If confirms it. He went at least to say, Doug Equivalence, part of it right, but there still are instead wait returns to go for Bernie and then all of a sudden he robbed of this momentum. So that's all priced into the model. It is worth noting, though, that when we're talking about Buddha judges, odds in New Hampshire, he showed us in the past that there is a coalition, their foreheads. That can get him too. The front of the pack, he was leading in New Hampshire Poles previously in the cycle get like he's a fairly New Hampshire can he has actually was always these two states that just about where he was pulling fairly well, by the way he has moved up at some of the initial New Hampshire polling, maybe he's you know. I don't mean the thing that I think we have an account of forest like this,

I was trying to it in essence, like predict, media, narratives and storylines voters here and tell themselves are after Iowa and its inferences that Bernie, has a slightly positive storyline, because he kind of partly one. And partly winning is good, because most can instantly at all It begins to be spun as a loss, corn, unquote And that there's infighting within the Sanders camp about how to treat these results and their grieving. Against the item. Credit party- which of course should be right, but if that's it and its usual good headline for you and his. Out didn't happen, which is a negative for Bernie, if it this one is a loss, then, all of a sudden new Hampshire. It people can switch their vote fast. He kind of becomes like a little bit of a of softer target there, the other

in this updated forecast that we haven't Doug into too much. I think we will continuously over the coming months, is now a twenty five percent chance that its nobody That's crazy, sir, as the person who quarter rates are full and equal coverage is really very well. It's everyone's dream right. If we have a contested convention, we all salivate over that each year, but yeah no, I mean I just Let's go to show how wide open the field is right. I know we keep saying that there really is true, adjust its mind, blowing to me that that's next after Sanders, Sir marijuana slap you a couple months ago and said: hey, I'm thinking about judging my vacation over the summer during the democratic convention that was fine yeah. I think I just wanted to get it out on this. I really like to take that information back now. I think so very carefully. I tabled a low by the way because of Bloomberg.

A pessimist web Limburg ability to win the nomination certain the majority recurrent optimist about his ability to cause chaos. I'm an after us about I'm actually a slight pessimists I'm relatively, compared to my pessimism over his majority chances that like, if you have something deliberately trying? to say I'm on a tray, get as many target as possible and see happens to me, that's the sub acts of a lot of the limber campaign. Then that creating it right cause the seventy six at a when a majority. If you look at that down in our numbers allows our narrow they just get over the finish line. So majority, not a plurality, so if Bloomberg Even seven per cent of delegates are something then like all of a sudden. You might be up to a one in three areas: no majority, it also loaded fulfilling what if Warren says? Well, I'm through place behind some of these White Guys

but nobody is going to get a majority genuine energy light. I actually have a compromise that I more experience about a church, the spanish people with me the Biden, people art, will learn to live with me right. I'm gonna you'd campaign, be very professional, saw the sudden. If, because this assumes, our forecasts assumes that people drop out, when they dont have a shot, begins to see him like. No one has a majority that no one has a shot right and then everyone stays in, and so it s like you know, even I think, is a lesson But you could even have like which are salmon stay in and get my Minnesota delegates are what not I mentioned a little earlier in the podcast that Clare is on the ground in New Hampshire checking and on how the candidates are reacting to the results in Iowa and trying to chart their path to victory in the next primary state. So Clare is here with us now Claire how's, New Hampshire, it's great, I pulled up to this event. Stop I map and realise that

here before I've been to this brewery before and another campaign stuff. So that is how new Hampshire is like, Repetitive colds currently no snow. Well, at least you no clear roads, but how are the candidates spinning the results on the ground in New Hampshire after Iowa see those touching me, I drove up very early this morning from New York to New Hampshire, so I have only seen Biden in person and I am about to walk into a worn event, but Biden was I think kind of an interesting speaker this morning in New Hampshire he took a bit of of an underdog stance in some ways, which is interesting for the national front runner. You know he basically said it was a God in Iowa Makin, a sugar coated, and he said things like you. People say that this camp people said that this campaign could last were proving them wrong, and then he took explicit shots at PETE Buddha Judge, all the other

Canada sort of euphemistically would say. One of my opponents are whenever it was the bridge. He called out specifically by name and said you know he thinks that I'm part of the old, the Washington Establish and part of the problem, but listen we now I got, I got the affordable care act on it. I did all the stuff a foreign policy right, so its interest. To have the national front runner be talking that way in New Hampshire. So I think you're here, certainly seeing bidest team or guidance campaign be bits both. I guess I've got a little back on their heels, we'll see Warren WAR. One actually be at this event and walking into its it'll be surrogates, but I'm I mostly focusing on The voters on this trip and just to try to get us people sense of things as they as we have, to what I think I will call the first organised vote of the democratic primary season,

Come on Clare, there's no need to kick. I wild down plenty. People are doing. No, I'm actually serious about that. I think that it makes the the choices of New Hampshire, a bit more fuzzy safe, stood up. Lord, citing you stood, people were candidate shopping. These a few days, and that's gonna continue so cunning, He was on people's minds. What else have you heard? from voters anything specific about how their reacting to the Iowa rose. Well, you know New Hampshire. I sir our avi see of a similar breed, to our voters and that they take great pride in their states. I've heard people say well, the primary process is better than the carcass process, and you know like we,

We do it better here, so you know they really they really screwed it up. So that kind of thing, but mostly I think they're kind of they are a bit like tunnel vision with their own state with their own vote, and you hear a lot of us, but the the Biden event you heard a lot of sort of the pragmatic kind of but our even if they haven't made up their minds a beat triumphantly that's interesting to hear Clare. The more I think we ve with the IRA results and more about the we're talking about this earlier, but we're about to update our forecast and it shows, with the partial ire results in a chose, Biden chances plummeting, But are you Sarah or Clare Galen surprised? That Biden has so explicitly acknowledged and taken on this, Well, I guess I've. Maybe I just sort of expected him more to be like I

was never really our stated. We have a diverse coalition and bought boss of its I'm a bit surprised that he's he's saying what clip you number Clare set he's still talking in New Hampshire crowds right. You know, I think, if you were, if he were appearing on Ed yeah we're virtue of national media programme, he might say: listen. I've got a soup, verse coalition people, of all economic and educational background support me, but I am sure you gotta you gotta play to the crowd. The pleaded the scene, but it you know, what do you understand about Biden as a candidate which I think people are starting to see a little bit more is he gets angry about this stuff? You know he's happy protesters during his event this morning, mostly younger, although not all they were kind of climate change protesters and he gets a little ticked off at them

he's. He certainly fired up bright as you as one would imagine, a person who has just finished in a poor position in the in the first reading, the president would be, but he sounded a little horse this morning. You know he's really he's really working aviators brand hard, even in this sort of not that sunny New Hampshire, sunlight thereof, glued to his face but he is you. Can you can palpably sense? The frustration that from time to time and and you ve seen it in sort of some of these viral videos that will go around when people in Iowa would come up to him and say you know, can you please answer my question about climate change or whatever it is? and by it and get a little confrontational or he'll say he said this morning to the protesters. Jumpy like the trumpeters, be polite I'll talk to afterwards don interrupt right. So I did you get the real sense that Biden the man

is frustrated. I'm curious Clare and like talking with voters a do any of them seem to kind of bee grappling with by coming in fourth denial. I do they seem shaken at all, or is there not really factoring in not the voters? I too, Two again, you know if you, if you're going to invite and then you might be a little more in the tank people mostly keep on coming. Back too. We need a pragmatic stopgap measure to get us out of Trump right. These practices are pragmatic, loaders you're getting at these, but that's so I'm interested to see what say, like a Buddha, judge, voter or call Bashar voter might say about someone who is still shopping candidates who's got. You know the three visits, the three moderates on their plate, whether or not their freaked out, but no I mean, I think, you're still here very similar lines about if they'd shoe, if we

is war and our Sanders then we're gonna lose the general election in out. That's the kind of that's the kind of thing you here and Abiden event, and I think that's been true, for you know the past ten months, it that make sense in and you wouldn't think Biden would have to sell those voters to stay with him on that argument, which is why it's not surprising to me clear what you said about binding going after Buddha, Judge, Kaboom judge very she's in his lame right and or Buddha Judge gained momentum that comes not one for one, but it comes you know? A lot of it comes directly from from Biden so yeah. I think I think we have to expect to see Biden go pretty hard after Buddha judge of next days and weeks. Clare. I want a lot you get to this war and rally, but before you leave us, you did spend some time actually following Buddha judge around in Iowa and profiling. His communications director List Smith and so on. We are focused on New Hampshire right now. But what is you

our sense. Given the reporting that union did of how Buddha Judge pulled out his victory or half victory, whatever you want to call from Iowa yeah- I mean you know they are first of all. They they camped him out there in that state for the past year. And I think a lot of this has to do with all this in a year ago. People to know who people to judge was real you know, we know who it was because this is our job and we're supposed to know that by Le Smith, who I did profound frontier green check it out or mine. Her whole thing was it with his sooner campaign Mandarin strategies, but their whole thing was just get him out there and front of all the tv cameras campaign state beacon. When I mean you know, I know, Lizzie read a lot of has read up on a lot of Jimmy Carter, stuff right so that the the

a wholesome newcomer, you know, wholesome outsider, comes in and makes a stand and and takes Iowa sort of you know goes onto the presidency. I think, is certainly a path that day spire to in some ways, so that can pain is savvy right, like I think you see, Peat is a political animal right and I think you saw that in his decision in the campaigns decision to come out with that. Pretty bold speech was a Tuesday night money I have no idea what sense of time Monday night saying we want the Caucasus, I mean that's, that's gonna ballsy right, like that's a risky move, It looks like it's paid off because the past two days on cable, since no one had anything to do Looking for our results, people Catherine saying people judged declared victory and even if you put in all the copycats.

That's your name out there that suit your name next to winning victory whatever it is. But you know, I think we do come back to what happens when you start hitting the super diverse states right where Buddha Judge doesn't have any any hold, and I think that's the huge glaring flaw, a campaign are well, we will see what happens, but they declared for checking and with us a good luck with everything in New Hampshire thanks. Claire mine eyes. One final thing before we what you I'll go by the time you are listening to this, the Senate will have almost certainly voted to acquit President Trump in his impeachment, try we did find out, though earlier today that Senator of Utah Republican Mitt Romney decided to vote to convict the president. Sarah, how much of a surprise is I think it is a surprise I think, when gosh, it last Friday, but when the vote

or more witnesses failed. I think at that point you know like. Oh says on track for acquittal of the president, which it still is, but thinking that will have no Republicans broke rink, then, to ask for more evidence that they wouldn't act they vote against the President and in fact since the first senator to vote to convict a president of his own party, which is notable he voted only for one of the two articles you voted for abuse our, but not on the second on obstruction, but I mean it's, not gonna, earned him any friends on the Republican. I do think it was unexpected and is a big deal for him to have done that or what do not as they leave the Republican Party does not want to run, reelection, what's like is at all just principle: can we We throw aside our cynical notions of how people behave in politics, he'd indefinitely

m dead. As you know, something from his faith is a devout Mormon end. I think grappled with it in those terms, but Utah's also kind of a weird state I feel like if you could get away with in kind of a renegade Republican there. It's almost like Mc Caskey, Unalaska Right granted. She had different. Circumstances is actually running as a rented a right in at one point, but I think I think IRAN's again but and maybe that will hurt him at the ballot in you but I also think with in more fundamental Christianity Mormons are also a little more anti trump than other sex hurt. So as we wrap up this impeachment sorrow to some degree does something we ve covered for months now, mica, nay, worthier, closing thoughts on the day. The Trump is first of all, Mitt Romney voting for one article them peach man. I am taking as evidence that I was

right all along that people were underwriting. The chances that were publicans would abandon Trump Leninist spin. Folks. That what he looks like you're, where it was a two thirds vote. It wouldn't fail by two votes: heroes: saying, I'm just saying forty eight out of sixty seven, I'm just saying that people were not selecting Romney to vote for either articles impeachment and he did and he's a Republican. Let's just leave it. There K agree to disagree. Second in this that the implication of this are vast. An unknown, I think, is probably the safest way to put it, but then couldn't they also be small experiment now either. I think But that's my point is like I think we know they're, not small. I think we don't know, but I think we can safely back. I mean you have a president in office

who really beyond a shadow of a doubt, has manipulated far. You know government policy, foreign policy for his own personal gain and his party stuck by him our president's now, in other words, impeachment has now been shown given modern polarization to be mostly impotent right to be the tool doesn't work anymore. So maybe at some point some present could do something that that would you no trick a kind of more rate of more real impeachment trial but distant, and do it so like what is Trump thinking now does trumped just think he can do whatever he wants. What do president to come after tromp? How do they view this essentially with the country does not have a way right now, realistic? lay to remove a present from office right except at the ballot box. Maybe that's!

Maybe every four years is often enough. That you know boot that we make do with that. The founders didn't think so. The founders that we needed a tool in between elections to remove a president, it doesn't seem like we have that tool. That seems like a big deal right well, there is also an argument that it never actually worked to begin with. We ve never had a president ever be impeached and convicted and remove from off, we had Medicine Nixon, it worked with Nixon yeah. It worked with Nixon Nixon would have been impeached in the house are made available in this way. To put it is the threshold is, crazily how high and that Nixon, who I'm not a constitution. Scholar. Historian, you know, It seems to me that what prompted and what Nixon dinner in the same ballpark, ok but mixing at a time when there was much less partisanship than there is now. If Trump,

Donald Trump, the nineteen Seventys was, but if he were was kind of Nixon. Greatly if you weren't, we're like everyone is Susan Columns or Mitt Romney then I'm not sure that he gets gets acquitted, necessarily. And so I don't know I mean if you can put it in, like a big regret. An equation right. You kind of like work as we try to this rumour back in three. Seventy we're like. If you were to build a model of impeachment, would you look at and like one of the things like how stories. Enforces and stuff like that, Hello is also sort of unease that popular bodies not super unpopular right he's at forty. Shut up. You know forty three, forty four percent in our with that forty two percent before him spent economy is pretty good. It is the first term because member Parliament is a remedy for all types of crimes. In the constitution, pudding for people who are not elected officers, so not necessarily clue

founders solely intended this, for cases where you had a present on the back you're. I don't, I think it's like kind of I M, just in general, someone who is resistant to additives that, like now, things are permanently changed. I think if we had been here before twenty two, team and have been told down proper, become president maybe the allegations against him. We want the game. Now what will happen? I think we would have predicted that he would have been removed. I will something very much like what happened I would have taken quite the imagination to come up with that. Well idea before two thousand, sixteen Without a president in this environment, doing Nixon levels of stuff. Given how much higher partisanship is right now, in his first term, with forty two percent approval rating in, I don't think we would have thought that

we'd be marathon there, a few more votes for conviction, data. That would be that with an interesting idea. Interesting are well we're. Gonna leave things there as folks, oh because I've been talking about our wives, shower we're going to be in New Hampshire this weekend, so we will have a post debate reaction podcast on Friday will be at the debate in Manchester. Your Hampshire, then we have our lives, show Sunday night, which will be in your podcast feeds on Monday. Then, were also still gonna, be a new Hampshire on Tuesday for a primary reaction. Podcast. Hopefully things go more smoothly this I'm glad I will be with you either way so check in often for updates in your feed, but that's it for now. Thank you, Nate back again. Thank you, Sir thank you and thank you Michael. Thank you. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the control room. You can get in touch my emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If Europe

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