Who Hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics plaid cast iron deal, we're in the a mass protest movement, the likes of which we probably haven't seen since the nineteen sixty two zone import, question. If basic one is essentially do protests work and more specifically, are these protests working We spent a lot of time covering elections almost park as and when it comes to those kinds of campaigns. You get a straightforward answer at the end you won the election war? You didn't, but judging the efficacy of Protest movement is a bit more complex and vote today. We'll try to lay out a rubric for assessing that question and see how the current protests are measuring up so far, and here to do that. Is five thirty contributor show Muslims or he's a fellow at data for progress and has done research focusing on protest movements?

It also wrote a piece for our website this we called what protest can and cannot do I shall go to view. The also here with us is more a gay. Covers politics and New York with the New York Times Editorial Board and recently wrote about how the poor, tests are leading to policy changes in New York and elsewhere. Thank you for joining Us Mara, thanks for having so we're gonna dig into the details, but at first Blush Mara, other current protests, working pretty clear that policy makers are paying attention that the protests have had in fact already here in New York, we just repealed, the aid which was the police secrecy law that prevented records disciplinary wreck it's from being released to the public and not just for police officers, but also for correction officers and other key employees. You the Minneapolis Police Department that has been done ended and will be rebuilt to hopefully be more, a product, and of those it actually represents an, and so I think

you know yeah. I would argue that is quite clear that these protests are working in. An voting is is one part of the democratic process, but it's not the only part shown you ve put together a rubric for judging whether or not protests are working and more. You mentioned policy, its clear that you don't want. Makers are working on it, and some of it has already change else. Do you judge our protest movement? I would say a big issue is: is didn't raise awareness of the issue minutes clear that if we go back the events of twenty fourteen twenty fifteen around Fergus came shock to a lot of specially white folks that police violence neutrality or dated eight experience of african Americans and people of color

and I think, you're, seeing that play out again and not only raising awareness by raising awareness of a particular dimension of police brutality that the world that black people do will collar faces is very different in the type of policing that they face that'll be different, and I would just add that the other measure of looking at this and you can you- can take a look at public opinion polls around race and racism right now on these subjects on the protests by. But there is a cultural side to this what's really interesting to me, is that the police departments across the kind We have responded to largely peaceful protests with extraordinary amount of violence, not in every case, but in many cases We are seeing now in public, hauling, public opinion polls, that a majority of Americans putting way Americans for the first time.

Our seeing. This are horrified and their sympathies are actually not Whitney's police departments there with the protesters. That is an extraordinary amount of power likewise matter has amassed and, and I think we're gonna see it in an election year, and this is a big show me. Your reporting gets out, which is like awareness, is the first thing than public opinion. Change is the next policy or institutional changes potentially follow, and then finally, our electoral consequences, and so you mentioned awareness and more. You mentioned the changes in public opinion, Here's what we're seeing right now, unique as far as protest movements go in terms of the efficacy of it, how much awareness has been raised and how swiftly public opinion has changed. I think the main far as that's been really surprising to me, actually just how rapidly public opinion has changed issue, if you think,

like a lot of other movements or programme sir. You know someone out. There are neither inequality or climate. You have seen as much of a rapid change in the way seen attitudes around policing and raise over just like the course of these past two and a half weeks where now a majority of Amerika its view this as an issue. Ten December dies as Morrow saying, with the protesters setting, though just how fast things of change makes. This how much indifferent, I think a lot of ways and the increasing in the past too I would say that the closest parallel is, of course, these civil rights who met in the democratization of southern states in the sick. He's in seventy years and also the anti war demonstrators who were met by violence from police, like I can state to meet US

this parallel, because you have a movement that has pushed for change for a very long time. I think black Americans in particular feel like This isn't happening overnight. This is a movement has taken decades to build and finally publics is turning. I agree shown very quickly and in part, because of the extremely violent response that these demonstrations have been that way and we are seeing what Americans, being beaten in the streets on camera in broad daylight. It shouldn't take tat, obvious but it's really hard to ignore a lot of power and that I think that's an important dynamic to think about this. Particular movement in this moment was started in many ways by the video of George Florid. You, maybe it's not possible to disentangle, but is this public opinion shift a direct response to that video? Is it

direct response to these protests, or is it as your saying Mara, something that is largely connected to white people. Seeing white protesters also being used violence against by the police. We saw the seventy five Euro protesters in Buffalo thing. Everybody saw that video of him being pushed over and kind of bleeding from his head and ears. How are you processing What is so different about this moment? I mean, I think again, things are coming to a head now for several reasons, one of them is the George Play video. The other, of course, is the elephant in the room, Donald Trump, an outright white promised and a majority of Moroccans do not share his views. The other the crime of virus pandemic, which has been just taken horrible toll on cities across the country and the people who live in them and also lots of large jobless. So I think you have essentially occur storm. That has led all of us

I'm too ahead. You also have this video and George Floyd killing that it's just you cannot, it cannot be defended and it has not been defended by please I think all that has come together to give way power to a movement is actually been going on for the better part of fifteen years, and I know you ve done some analysis here show trying to put numbers to both awareness and public opinion I'll, say, also drama matter. A database journalist here at five thirty eight published a piece on the website this morning. Looking at media coverage of the black lives matter, movement, essentially finding that it waned a lot during the Trump administration. You know back in two thousand fourteen two thousand fifteen, there were significant coverage and then media coverage tanked significantly, since two thousand sixteen

you have also looked at Google Trans and things like that to try to put numbers turn to what we're seeing and what kind of self evident what you find I mean. So you see a big uptake and key demands of protesters around abolishing the police, deepening the police and justice. Searches around races, So one thing: I've kind of interesting this people looking inwards. I am I racist and I think one now who's gonna, moving away from the data itself by media, Little bit more anecdotal, is thinking about the ways in which protesters are for the saying those on the sidelines interrogate their own privilege and use their platforms. Our power that they do have to highlight the injustices that we're seeing vividly now, but have been going on for decades.

Everything really come longterm centuries, but I think the This opinion, change and awareness change to me then I would be. No I've been looking out forest there's, so what's going on under President see where I had line pops out there, the multiple headlines every week, the thing I would be in a looking out for, as is, is this going to get caught it out by the next thing that comes up? I mean it doesn't seem like this opinion. Changes will be waiting or the awareness of the issue is demands are winning moment I think it is important to know think about

The two months from now on is still going to demand the attention of the american people. One thing we see after, for example, mass shootings is public opinion very rapidly moves in the direction of increased restrictions, on gun ownership, etc, and very much people we'll tell pollsters that there now prioritizing it, for example, but then very predictive. We that Peters out and policy change in large part doesn't generally happen. You know what parallels do you see here so far or things that make it quite different? I mean. Is there a reason? expect us to be more effective than protests surrounding mass shootings or gun ownership. Again, I think there is a certain alchemy and magic to why it is that certain cultural movements catch on

when they do. I don't have all the answers to that, but I do believe that as someone who is, I've been out there The protesters have literally gone by my house several times about there with them a bad here in Brooklyn and I'm Manhattan, and it feels different Anne and that's hard to quantify that its. You're, like not just about police brutality. Although that is at the heart of it. To me, like a programme. I could movement being led by black people and by others who are fed. But are not only angry: they they want a better future and they there extremely passionate, and I I there's, so much power in it and the fact again. To me, it was striking I've written about

fifty eight police secrecy laufer for years. At this point and if the kind of thing your friends who read your work but aren't in politics, will say fifty. Why it's hard to get people to pay attention to, and then all of a sudden in the past week or so I've seen, I'm in the windows and doctors, offices stories on the sight of of cars in you. Outside of New York City among island that save repeal fifty eight repeal fifty eight. So it feels like rich cultural movement as well, and that's really hard to stop, and I just want to say as well that one thing really interesting as its reached behind the traditional democratic base, I have said a family friends who our trump supporters who live in rural California and our evangelical white voters and their pastor has started talking to them about racism and racism in America in policing

I agree with what you say only one thing, I think one then why this moment really feel somewhat different than the moment around gun violence at school shootings is that You know if everything think about life has been like this groundwork has been laid for decades now, if you think about the long history and traditions of black organizing as a pro democracy movement, like that's, been happening. Fur ages now so in some ways like yeah there is this kind of like that. We don't. We quite put a word on what this moment is now and how it feels very different. But for that is. I think it's because that groundwork has been laid. The work has been done for so long to organize around these issues. Whether it's you know explicitly,

do you know the analysts appease work throughout no Jim Crow, invisible rights era, and now, as we see it the alarm as this diffuse organization by outside You know the organizers have done a lot of the work and to Morrow you mentioned fifty. I I think that a lot of people are going to go back and judge the movement in large part by legislation. That's past rate, the awareness, the public opinion, it's all part of the equation, but when we look back at the sixties, the narrative is in large part around the civil rights laws that were eventually past and show what other kinds of legislation are. We see your policy changes, are we seeing as a result of this moment here, so I dislike saves certainly early days still and police? actually in particular, is a very local issue, so it is already playing California is about a banjo colds. Again is like

the Apple S Atlanta, seen changes, but also the discussion around qualified and you need for police officers The national level is starting to happen so we'll see what happens with the reconciliation between the Democratic Republic in policing bills on capital EL, but also, I think it's going to be a movement, that's not just about policing, I really believe the pro democracy movement and that dialogue assuming he loses in in November. That way, to see in the coming years is a whole of legislation around health and racial justice and education things. We really haven't seen a wholesale movement on since excuse so the landmark legislation like the nineteen sixty four sixty five civil right back, fair housing law Really, I think a

continuation of that work that has been done are their shown. This is something you ve studied. So are their protest movements that don't work or does every protest movement? At least you know raise awareness other times that we can look inside. No, that did not really didn't work. I mean you hinted. I love the movement. It's gone violence and schools. You know if you think about reinstating. The salt weapons bam. There are clear policies: I've been demanded is Heaven. Even when considered at this point, so I think that it's like there's, not a wonder one mapping between you know just because you have a protest or social entire. Somehow that's going to instantly create change, If I were to say I mean thing about

Who is some of the work I've seen at least in terms of you? No movement organizing is like how do you activate people's identities as well? you're thinking about what makes this different then something like you know, I'm a movement or they lie the movement it's gone violence that I think there is a clear appeal in this situation to Just a core identity is like Americans deserve equal treatment under the law, and now it's like so clear that that's not the case at all, and so I think, the huge component of this effort? a building across coalition movement, which I think you are seeing happening right now and again, going back to the qualifying community exam. Well, you know with just a marsh answering that legislation that

to me, if you like this is tapping into something core believable, what it means to be an American and You don't deserve able respecting laboratory equal treatment under the law and it's so star kid eyes in the case that if you want to live up to that like, if that's what it means to be american, then we clearly failed that and so the act that goes back into some of the ideas are more exciting about this being a pro democracy movement in that sense, as well for a pro american movement. The final metric that you use to judge whether or not protests are working are their electoral consequences in the work that you wrote about for us at five, thirty, eight. You know it's too soon to talk about its effect on the twenty twenty elections result. We can look at poles and things like that so far, but do you see a chair?

seeing the contours of either the general action or even primary elections, starting with the general election, is clear. Now that policing is going to have to be a central issue in this twenty twenty election release, I think, voters on the democratic Saturday, the man. This is a central issue. It seems to me that in a bra Respect like this is just enjoying what the agenda is going to be for one think about how to- evaluate, do you want to vote for and twenty twenty they seem to be a that's going to be a key issue. That's going to DR candidates. Would I've noticed? Is that no just now

primaries going on like this is the issue? Is russian cities where you know police are incredible, presents even in a democratic and progressive leaning cities that the issue of police is going to have to be something that You're gonna have to go to say something about. And so in that respect, I think that with that isn't electoral consequence to me beyond him above beyond, like who wins and who loses the electrodes, its forced on me locked all agenda, I think you're. Absolutely right- and one of the questions that I have is what this will deal with anything what these these demonstrations will do to turn out in primary auctions and it's very when the case in american politics in american history that if you can get it, I went to a protest. You can definitely got them to vote. Always one to one to shuns point, but is often the case, and so sometimes I think in fact it

what differentiates a movement from a flash in the pan, like frankly, and I mean no disrespect to him but Senator Bernie Sanders. He, able to draw large crowds, but not as many votes, whereas here I there's an opportunity, especially with folks engage in such hyper, local issues like fifty eight like the Minneapolis Police Department We might see more people at the polls you're out some other evidence, also going on that's so damn gaily hundreds of people, scientists that unity, Pennsylvania, decided knew but come out on this issue. A protest, and, remove men's and he is that a lot of social movements, especially Brown Razor minority light movements? Do You know, engage citizens above and beyond, to showing up to protest. They get them to turn out. One candidates can deliver on their promises and ass, it is.

The steel and also the tea party movement, to which I think goes. I remember It's a lot on the be alone, man right now and the moon again sit up police brutality bought, you saw, the tea party was quite sophisticated. Engage borders, no turned its initial set a protest into Eu Jordan. They saw infrastructure data. Scotch bar has a great, but that's out on that. Looking down the Pike White measurement, would you used to judge whether or not this is successful? Considering that there's only two and a half its unity, this movement so far more authority, talk about you know their ability, Usually it so hard to get people into local all tax, because it usually it I mean-

voter turnout out, usually pretty low in these elections, and a lot of it is like you have to follow closely City Council meetings. Party labels. Often don't really, you know tell your whole lot about what the candidates actually stand for. Seeing the organizing around local Paul tax has been happening. That's very different than what I've seen a lot of other issued would send a bogus. You know national issues which are harder to do in a lot of respect, yeah That's right, I would also just say just to emphasise some points and add a few more voter turnout in the primaries and locally and in the general action the member, of new candidates, who are elected and sent to Congress. So the flipping of seats, Certainly state local and federal legit?

around policing and racism? The toppling of confederate Amen Statues names, the corporate, movement that we ve seen even from NASCAR to remove confederate symbol. Another racist, territorial strangle. Symbols from our national cultural sphere, the open discussion among conservatives and evangelicals and other religious groups about raising racism and race in America, and finally, I think you know the cleaning ass, a rebuilding of police departments, the remaking of police departments, the country to again full circle, serve the people the day, the people who pay them in time are dollars and also to hold accountable officers for misconduct. These are just some of the metrics, but but you know,

ultimately, another metric and all just offer this. You know I make my own personal front- is thinking about we're talking about the Sixtys and Seventys. You know I and the black miracle, when my mom's white, my dad, is black. I was born in nineteen eighty six, my experience. This country, I experienced far more freedom quality than my father did my father, who is July's, very healthy, drank out of it gave water found in went to segregate schools with some to state terrorism at the hands of police and so was not really a full citizen of the United States. So I I'm just trying to give a little bit of signs of life brought an error. The way that we talk about success, a mattress mattress success and, and also that you know perspective on the length of time that dumb participation has taken.

Women in democracy in this country fully, since the nineteen seventies, I mean it's in his report that you make, because in judging whether or not a protest movement is successful, you might have looked at the black eyes matter. Protest movement in two thousand fifteen and two thousand sixteen and say: well, it wasn't really successful, but I guess part of the message here is looking at this current protest movement that we ve categorized as successful as encompassing other decades other protests in the past. That's exactly right! All right! Well, I think you ve wait out some interesting metrics for us to keep watching for and judge the efficacy of this protest movement based on, but I think we can leave it there. So thank you so much Mara and and shown. Thank you thanks for having the United States they do. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch. My emailing us at Pike

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