It's like waiting for like a yes vote is what you think is a no vote and no both like a yes vote. It's kind of maybe people got confused. Guess when those are you like. What are you talking about? This is like stoned analysis. How and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm gay landruk. Last week, twelve that Republicans broke with President Trump on his national emergency at the border. They help pass a democratic, led resolution that would overturn emergency declaration and, of course, that led to Trump issuing his first veto as president on Friday. You know it's rare that Republicans break with Trump. I don't think anyone is questioning whether the Republican Party is Trump's party, but we are curious about the patterns in who breaks with the president, on which issues and what their motivations are. So today we're going to spend some time exploring that and uh

here with Maine are editor in Chief Nate Silver, Honey, how's it going going well, Galen Awesome Senior is rather clam alone, how's it going clear again and engine editor, Michael Cohen. How are you very good lots of exciting things going on yeah? It's been a minute. You want with us last week good to have you back. I wasn't with you. I did, however, receive word from my cyst that certain shots were taken at me. In my absence, I won't name the perpetrator, but suffice to say MIT Claire, I'm coming after you, this up alright, be on your guard. He is a real look too real, like menacing, bring it I'm a gamer and today were all going to assess which candidates have done the best jobs kicking off their campaigns with fourteen or fifteen Democrats now running, depending on how you want to count. Essentially, whether not you want to count Mary and William, we can kind of see who's gain traction with their rollout San who hasn't and uh say that our second podcast this week is actually going to be our

I've show in New York City, it's on Wednesday March 20th at the Nyu Skirball Center, so yeah. If you can't wait until Thursday to hear that you can always come to the live, show you can get tickets at Fivethirtyeight, dot, com, slash life! There's a few left a few left. How about this? you buy. The last ticket will give you out out on the podcast just come. How do we find opportunity arises Wednesday, take a date you know, or don't that might kill the vibe it'll be good. Get a drink afterwards. Make fun of us whatever you want, Nate will? Oh you who will win the democratic primary if you come to the live, show exactly city enter Yang, you Yang it all right again, that's five dot com, slash live, but let's begin with the Republicans who breaking with Trump and we're going to start with the most recent resolution, and then we can broaden it out a bit Micah. Are there any trends among the senators who voted for the resolution to overturn Trump's emergency

question, essentially, trends among the Republicans who decided to break with Trump on this emergency declaration? Well, I would point to a few, so there were twelve Republicans are broke with Trump, with only one exception. None of them are up in twenty twenty. The one exception is Susan Collins in Maine, who, I think, has kind of unique circumstances there terms of what her incentives are, because our brand is that she's, an apartment, yeah she's well known as a moderate. So I think that's not where the that could you know cons is up in twenty twenty Lamar Xander from Tennessee another person who supported the resolution is retiring but everybody else who voted for it with Democrats, in other words, isn't up until two thousand and twenty two at the earliest. So does that mean that people up in twenty twenty are afraid of a primary challenge is essentially what you're saying yeah, I think that's the obvious

read of it and make sense. You know among the people, not up until two thousand and twenty two, it's kind of The people? You would expect to have some history of breaking with Trump, so RAM Palmer House Michael MIKE Lee Romney. Then there are couple Paul who are little more loyal to Trump, like prop Portman, Pat Toomey. It's kind of moderate Roy Blunt, a blind item. If you look at the names Roy in Ray confused, no so anyway, to sum it up what I would say as the in just ignoring that there were reports for a little while before this vote, that support for the resolution might snowball right and you might see upwards of twenty two dozen republicans bring. With Trump we didn't see that what we saw was just the usual suspects who break with Trump plus a handful of people will be pushed back. How twelve is a lot. I mean

published perry- and I did a with count- or we said- ok here, all these twenty three or twenty four republican. Owners who have concerns, and I think response was oh well. They may have concerns, but we know there are going to kind of full. In the end I mean twelve is a lot of people to break with Trump, although it's interesting, because I think it's actually pretty random of that group of whatever two dozen who expressed concerns the twelve who did vote for it, which again confusingly means voting for this resolution means you are voting against Trump's emergency declaration. It seems kind of random 'cause, there's a lot of like principled conservative. Why didn't Ben Sasse vote to disapprove? The emergency declaration to seems like once for reelection, twenty, twenty? Twenty ha. That's your answer. There we go and Sass, you know why didn't Cory. Gardner he's up he's he's up, maybe he's afraid a primary challenge, but you know what Cory Gardner, I think you might be he maybe maybe maybe an underdog and your general election race here so maybe

don't worried more about that Colorado is a fairly blue, tinged state. I think we might call it right now Tom Tillis in North Carolina voted. Actually his vote. I was amazed at the road, an op ed. I love that wrote an op, Ed, saying: hey, I'm gonna support. You know, I'm gonna come out against. Trump's emergency declaration then reversed. I think Republicans are right to fear primary challenges, but I also if you're someone who also has to fear a general election challenge generally, There are more formidable problems in a purple state, so it was a bit weird if you had some like model to predict. Who would vote for it? It wouldn't have like that. Many people, like one hundred percent of percent would be like. Okay, I don't have enough inputs to really understand these dynamics seems very individual, I think one take away- is clearly the senators who face, even the remote prospect of a competitive election in twenty twenty, so quarry guard Martha Mcsally, Joni Ernst, David Perdue

Rotom, tell less all voted against the resolution, all stuck with Trump. So clearly, they are more concerned about a primer to Claire. Do you think that Republicans are right to be more worried about a primary challenge than what their record looks like to a general electric in two thousand and twenty yeah? I mean, I think we saw some successful Trump like candidates coming out of the midterms. So that's a rational concern for these republican candidates to have, and I suspect that some of them would have made decisions, were they not up in two twenty and twenty, but you know we have the twenty eighteen midterms in the close, rearview mirror and people are certainly taking lessons and acting, I would say cautiously shouldn't shouldn't of mentors, be that if the President unpopular in your Republican in a purple state you get your butt kicked in less, you are really being willing to venture, differentiate yourself from the president you're talking. Are you talking to CORE gardner right now? Tellis, a g Tommy, Martha Mcsally,

I mean look, they all do have risk of a primary challenge and just saying like all of are probably roughly speaking in toss up aces in the general election in, like it seems a little weird to me. Can I push back on its push back that that this is all a lot of defections if He asked me where have we seen, meaning for GOP defections from Trump? This would be like tenth on my list. He seemed much more meaningful defections in the area of foreign policy, where what you're talking about dozens of defections, this is on a whole different Is it more defections? Unlike your run of the mill bill Sharp, but only by a few okay, but this is in foreign policy, which makes it unique right. You don't often see Republicans breaking with Trump on.

Thing like immigration and a lot of people from it, as this is a constitutional issue. But do you think that a dozen defections on the national emergency declaration indicates something about Trump's hold on the party? I think it indicates that there's a line that some people won't let him cross where they feel like there's an info when there's an infringement on balance of powers, issues that the will strike back, so they see it as a constitutional issue. Trump trying to intervene with Congress's power to another pattern in the votes was a lot of the people who supported the resolution came from the appropriations Committee, which I don't think is a to considering. This is like Trump sort of Steel Congress says you know, power of the purse I mean so you can think of which say ten or twelve instances where there are more stronger remix. The president. In fact, I have a list wow, it's almost like. I have known each other a long time, and that MIKE is anticipating all your moves right. Exactly

check. My chest, your sixty seconds, to name as many br present more this on your mark get set, go run through a few posing sanctions on Russia. There were great, there were fifty one republican defections in the house and fifty in the side of the other words. That's like everybody disapproving of withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and Syria. Forty six defections in the Senate, non minding motion calling for congressional approval of national security tariffs. It's like trade, stuff, thirty, nine factions in the house. You know there were eight bill on which there were more than twelve defections other bills, just like some budget bills, farm bill in there anyway, overturning President Trump's emergency. Operation for border wall. Funding is number twelve on our list of most GOP defections. In Congress in next offensive, this does include the house

So why are republicans more willing to break with Trump on foreign policy than on other things? His people have less firm policy views and on foreign policy I think, is that okay, people don't pay as much attention to it yeah I kind of think it is yeah. I also think that particular was say like the saudi Yemen situation, it's an easier vote for them to cast, because it is pretty bad, is kind of a clear moral arc to it, and I think that a lot of Republicans and Democrats in Congress think that the US has been on the wrong path with that. For a few years and that Trump and could show be kind of gave them a pretty good excuse to devote that way. So, essentially, the idea is that voter was don't feel strongly about foreign policy, so aren't paying attention as much when their representatives break with

I think that's right. I was having trouble coming up with like another. What are the other possible explanations? One is just Republican lawmakers feel more strongly about farm policy than domestic policy and are therefore sort more willing the Baka present their own party, maybe, but I don't know. Why would that? Why would that be the case, but there's also a republican orthodoxy right more or less. You know. Terrorists the United States playing a leading role abroad I'm, not that one yeah sure but, like I don't know, I guess, look on and now I'm arguing that side a little bit, but you know I'm a Saudi Arabia stuff. There were seven GOP defections in the Senate compared to twelve on this, so I don't know that. The overall lesson is, like Republicans, are very, very unwilling to de fact, and the handful of is where they have had mostly been foreign farm policy. Related specifically like Russia,

and yeah Galen in your right. You know America's willingness to you know one of the areas where Trump has been the biggest break from GOP orthodoxy is America's role on the world stage leading leading quote unquote but think Americans are general more with Trump in and wanting the United States to kind of be less adventurous abroad. Other that's that's simple fix interview too. I mean, I think we see a lot of people in general watching there to be non into transform foreign policy options, which is obviously a radical departure from last two decades of american foreign policy a stab lish. What the areas are where republicans are willing to break with Trump and also who broke with Trump. This most recent time we have a trump tracker, so we can see how often every republican votes with the president's position people who don't vote with the president that often, who are they and what calculations are they making? Are they putting on principle? Is it are they making electoral calculations Cemex both yeah you're? Looking at

pendant variables, it's like okay yeah. If you look at the people who actually vote against Trump, which is like nobody actually, then you combination of principle on electoral incentives, but like neither of those are apparently that strong because most them, but with the president, the very large majority of the I an electoral incentives about being in a swing state. You know. First, all there aren't that many swing states Second of all, apparently- and I think they might be wrong about this- I think I might be wrong that if your Cory Gardner that you actually probably should be more worried about losing to a Democrat than other Republican, but even in those swing states those GOP nominations are potentially competitive, and you don't have that many people who are that principled, maybe politicians, shouldn't be principle. There's a hot take for today, boys and girls may be. Politicians should represent their constituency user, not worried that much about principle. That's a steep attacked a great take, you know who has the lowest trump score in the center right now. Yes, well, amongst Republicans, yeah amongst Republicans, Nate Gas, Rand, Paul Makowski, you guys are pretty close, is Mitt Romney.

Because he has fewer votes and more of them are oppositional yeah, it's a little bearded, but the order. Mitt Romney, Rand, Paul Susan Collins, MIKE Lee LISA, Murkowski and then kind of a surprise, Josh Hawley from Missouri, Well again, it's just like I've been short list of more rebukes, like is in twenty in the previous Congress, two thousand and seventeen you had all these captain appointments and stuff that kind of boost those trump scores, whereas here it's often stuff that is passed by them, credit cows and it goes to the Senate. So, holding like the substance constant, is in that's right, but do you think that there has been more willingness to break with trump since two thousand and eighteen among Republicans in actually a little bit, because I don't think there has been more than this. I think if you look at where the votes, where there's been the most defections from Trump in of the top two are in twenty seventeen, then a couple in a very very few were recent, of course hasn't been that long. So you're, including the house in those numbers and one thing to Consider- is

that there were more trump skeptic Republicans in the house before the twenty eighteen mid term. Yeah there's a lot of them are voted out. Yeah very good point, so to wrap things up here. We don't believe that the Senate and House are going to have veto proof majorities for this resolution. This is kind of the there was where it lies. Yeah it doesn't seem like they'll have enough votes in either chamber to override Trump's Vida. Well, Let's move on to the rollout primary and talk about which Democrats have done the best and worst jobs of launching their campaigns, but first today's podcast is brought to you by light stream. The average interest rate on credit card debt is over eighteen percent APR. Have you looked at your interest rate lately, refinance your high interest credit card balances and save with a credit card. Consolidation loan from white stream get a rate as low as six point one four percent APR with auto pay, the rate is fixed, it will never go up and you can get that loan from five thousand to one hundred thousand dollars and there are no fees. You can even get your me as soon as the day you apply. You want to

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I've seen that editor's choice and a wire cutter top pick. Simplisafe has no contract, no hidden fees and no gotcha us try simply safe with free shipping and free returns. You'll get a sixty day risk free trial. Call order now and have your home protected within a week, go to simplisafe dot com politics to get started today that simplysafe dot com, slash politics, to go there? So they know we sent you it's simplysafe dot com, slash politics! Alright, it's been about three one slash two months: Elizabeth Warren announced her candidacy for President Essentia Lee kicking off the democratic primary, with the caveat that yes, Andrew Yang, announced his candidacy in two thousand and seven in any case Delaney version it was in twenty. Sixteen. I think we really was it in the one month, two months after the twenty sixteen election. By the way, according to the scottish teens that predict Andrew Yang is now in the top tier of democratic candidates. So

Does that mean that we're going to have to have a theory of the case went for android here importing we're publishing at this week. Well on this podcast I mean maybe we can do it at the live shot. Yeah will do it at the. So you're going to break it are the most likely Rick nomination winners, Bernie Sanders. Twenty three percent to Joe Biden: twenty two percent: three Beto O'Rourke, seventeen percent for Kamala Harris, sick percent, five Andrew Yang thirteen percent six and Cory, Booker, now PETE, church, eight percent, I on the same side of the table, is neat and I leaned you here's the thing yeah I did cheated call to young scottish lines, and who spend a lot of time on the internet or, if you really well in these markets right and so Yang Boot

much better to Bernie off at the description more and then say: Kamala Harris does or something. So it's not meant to be a rant against prediction. Markets but anyway, yeah then keep go. So over the past three one slash two months: we've seen diverse launch strategies and burying reactions to candidates from within the party and in the press, so Nate who's had the best roll out so far. I think there's a clear answer here: Nate three canvas fed good rollouts who's had the best, and then you can go to your next to three canvas which they are I mean again. This is kind of not sure like with the rollout is versus like the overall. So let me lay down some markers on yeah, improvement in polling. Most money raised most talked about in the press or on Google searches or on social media, or something like that is that others, three good mark those are things you can look up. I think that from before they now

that they were running to now, who has improved their chances, the most subjectively subjectively Disney? Does it yeah? You can base that subjective judgment on these matters. X but like we don't have, we don't ultimately know for sure yeah. What is now I I can guess one of the night's gonna say he's gonna say Michael Bush are known not. Bernie Kamala Ambey to have had good roll outs, but the right answer I agree with that, but the right answer, Andrew Yang now we're young gang podcast their chances the most well, but that's not really fair. Considering that he's well over year into his campaign, his rollout happened the three months after he announced and his rollout. Therefore it was terrible his pastor once may have been fine. You said Bernie, comma and bed yeah. They clearly got the most buzz too three. They raised the most money, although Camala is way behind the other two in that metric right. We don't know yet about

those polls, we know that Harris and Sanders both got fairly big bounces in the polls. No, I mean, I think you could also say that, like this whole other group of demo, that's Booker and Warren Club, Achaar and Jilla Brand, and Castro and Hickenlooper Ensley had mediocre rollouts, and that's why you see interest in Andrew Yang and pooch at clubbish are against odds had a decent rollout, because before no one really talked about it that much she had the kind of, maybe I'm being too like media anecdotal, but she had like the visuals of snow and now she's gone decent number of endorsements, she's kind of in the conversation, in a way that she wasn't before for her role out. So to me, it's like if she was from a tier of candidates who people were like. Who is that? Well now, people know who

is is Amy Clover char at them. Now she still who, but I do think that, like that's a person where I think people know who she is now, perhaps because of some degree of infamy, but anyway just my thought here, no scientific. So we have Bernie Beto Harris. We have Amy Clubbish, I maker. What do you think with a lot of cars, a lot of coffee on so do you want to heartedly agree with either of those or do you just like pick something different, so we can argue that I already said and Andrew Yang, that's you. I guess I was dead, sing. Roll mostly is like so far, who's improve their chances most so far, and I think probably clearly, because he has a site devoted group of people online pushing for him Yang qualify very likely to qualify.

Debate, etc, etc? Among the quote? Unquote, major candidates: I think that Harris has had the best roll out she got a bump in holes as big as anybody else. I think the only one got a similar sized bump was SAM Ernie has As I mean I mean. Is she up like two percentage points? Are I think they were both up like five or six right yeah? Although Harris's has has dipped Alyssa painted tiny bit, which is kind of far back until around ten ish percent, from like twelve or fifteen, which they? How much should we think the order of announcement effects that? Because people do you know Harris will announce and then someone then someone else, the scene for awhile. I mean Sanders only announced a couple weeks ago, right or it might totally so, and then you get him his thing and then you know you've got the better thing now and I do kind of wonder how much we kind of split from knew thing to new thing and then once everyone's in here, you need like a month of stabilization I'd,

I'm just curious about reporter. For sure yeah I mean it's not going to run for awhile. 'cause Biden still has to decide. If he's going to run, reports recently seem to be there. He will run like till eight Natalie. Stacey Abrams is thinking about running she's. The one that gets overlooked by think should be very interesting. Can that one is what magazine profile out of her this week? You know in the kind of presidential yes aspirin to flicking apart. For me, apart from by the names I really care about, the rest of the story Eric Swalwell, I guess Swalwell. I guess the way I look at it is at this stage of the primary we are really information. Poor, there's not a lot of like really like clear. Tangible things to grasp. On to you mean policy, wise or just events of the world wise like how all these people are sort of fit together in the actual campaign. Well, both those things are true, but I meant so you like in terms of which candidate will do well with voters right and so I'm sort of grass

You know you ask what does it mean if Harris gets a six point bump in the polls right now or clubbish gets like a two or three point pop. The answer is I don't we really know. Harris is already starting to dissipate a little bit. There's so much time plenty could happen, but I think I'm just like trying to grasp on to any tangible sign of voters doing stuff, so that's pulling fun raising yeah, which is, which is why, with the bed oh launch this week, the cinnamon on Twitter was like very much like. Oh, this is kind of falling, very flat. Isn't it? You know this is falling very flat and he's making these mouse in Iowa is no substance that just a pretty boy right and then that was the eventual my style by the way he wouldn't even releases fund raising numbers and they must be really terrible, and then he you said that nobody else so the next week that like, unless he's very good at rolling you're, very good at like understanding how 'cause this was very smart. He ended

raising what was a six point, one million which is similar to in the first twenty four hours, twenty four hours, similar to a little bit better than Bernie's five point: nine million in those two are way ahead of anyone else, and so you, like every other candy, had kind of their number like the minute, the twenty four hours expired and here's how much we raise and here's how well we're doing right and he waited waited one until a Monday morning, so Monday morning when lots of reporters are logging on it kind of sets the narative for the week, but also I like any candidate who trolls the press, because the way campaign coverage is predictable and its overextended tony and he's like. I actually uh stand how expectations work an how the narrative gets overextended, an and because you're going to they go through all these different phases. Where you become a front runner, you go through a rough match. Then you win a caucus and lose a primary right, whatever else bad, to make good debate so to be be self aware enough, which I frankly don't think Beddo had been in the past to be like. Ok

here has to be seen, I'm gonna and drop people in to think. Okay, all my gosh to be actually not just under perform, Bernie, which I was a surprise he beat Bertie Frankly, but people are saying hey, maybe he finished under Kamala Harris, maybe you finished under Ensley, he finished under a million and then see you drop people in I just respect. I respect people who uh stand. Do you like? Can I break it can break him to ask a question here: Nate, which is so we are placing a lot of emphasis on the fund, raising numbers and I'm curious if we can go back to the republican primary, an for the people who raised the most money at the outset. Among the top people at the end is not so much that the fund raising numbers are that meaningful idol? if they are to your point in two thousand and sixteen JEB Bush add, a billion dollars that was from a lot from big donors. But whatever you know, donors tend to be disproportionately white tend to be disproportionately educated. You know which would favor

and it's like Beto right. So it's not so much that the fund raising numbers are that meaning for that great. It's just compared what else we have yeah yeah yeah. I know I guess I'm just curious if, like going how much the like, let's say the top three fundraisers from the first twenty four hours of the cane campaign, how much you know both months later there, how well they're doing in the poll I'm curious about whether or not there's any kind of connection there or, if or if we see historically, that people stars fall over that I'm interested in that people get the big corporate pack back. Can I mean you know JEB Bush famously had like one hundred million dollars pack money backing him. I don't think JEB did very well among sme small donors, and so the fact that burning in bed did it, I mean you know, fundraising- is important, variety of reasons. Right number one is a kind of proxy for popularity when you don't have a lot of other hard data, two. It is sorta like by lots of goods and services right and so like we're going to have a democratic campaign

that is very, very, very slow and then happens. All of a sudden is very frontloaded toward all these states that vote on Super Tuesday, including California, Texas Virginia. These are safe with expensive media markets right so to have a lot of resource. To pivot from how well you do in Iowa, New Hampshire to be able to score well, and all these super Tuesday states is like is pretty important. Yeah I mean 'cause. I had written this weekend that like- and this is when, frankly, the beta wasn't going to have very good fund raising numbers. It was saying: hey, look, there's so much narrative bs around Aurora, 'cause, he's kind of a weird candidate and the media coverage It was weird it's kind of all states between very sceptical, very fawning, depending on the mood and whatever else right that I want really wait for kind of quantifiable Curzon like so there's polls and there's raising endorsements. All these things have like their own problems, see. I think I think venerating definitely matters

here. My question lay tonight was so this is super crowded field. There's the trump factor in this race. There going to be debates, like you know, I'm kind of curious about how this primary takes shape over the next twelve months and whether it becomes a test about personality and how you stand up for Trump or whether it becomes sort of like a more not quite polisy primary, because I don't think it's going to happen. But more of like a vision, kind of primary of like the democratic future, and I think anyone who tells you they know how that's going to shape up is like a complete, because I don't think any of us know so I'm kind of curious about how. Once a campaign hits gears and like you, have your first debates and how people perform I'm kind of curious about how the electret tune been in how the candidates perform and whether or not that shift stuff. Because I do think that there's there's just so many people in the race and that there's so much going outside it and within the party that there's just a lot of swirling things. We could have it

question about like, like. I think that Kamala, Harris and Bernie Anders have emerged on lead lap and I think Beto O'Rourke looks like he'll be on that lead lap to with racing numbers will see if it pulls are really flat over the next week or two. I might feel differently certainly seems like he is talked about it major player in the campaign and the fund raising numbers back that up so he's on the lead, lap, IO assume Joe Biden would be on the lead lap if he runs right. So the question is you get in the debates which or maybe the more important phase right will be very important. You'd got to be on the lead lap. I think right. I think the second lap is Booker and and certainly Warren, who else on that set map? I don't know you know where are young in Buda? Church were actually kind of taking their chances, we're talking about the hickenlooper, and so they can looper Insley, who is more likely, President Andrew Yang or John Hickenlooper handwringing.

Calculator. Yeah I mean here's. The thing is like the big This is where we are in the campaign. I think Yang the over Matesa, Nate, silver yeah. That's really meaningful, though, because we're comparing him to hickenlooper hickenlooper is the governor of like the 17th largest state in the country. Because of the phase of the campaign wherein right now do you, like, overriding your default overriding position should be to be humble in terms of like with the conclusions, are drawing on what we know declares point like anybody is predicted they know how this one fold with so many candidates with Trump etc is full and also to take like a wide view. I mean not to be too on brand for five hundred and thirty eight, although we did just have our five year anniversary so I'll mark that by saying you want to be like the fox, not the hedgehog right. You want to look at a lot of things. So, like we're. Look

everything polling, endorsements, fundraising, social media interest, which bike, I'm sure is means close to nothing but like we, you know what our view. Our view is like. Okay, what we're gonna look at all this stuff is it meaningful that clubbish are raised more than one million dollars in her first forty eight hours hickenlooper, is about a million dollars in his first forty eight hours is that, I don't know, but it's like it's interesting, isn't it raised, one million dollars in his first three days about yeah three days yeah. The endorsement date is interesting, actually two where, if you look at who's on top in what we call endorsement points and you get different points, if you're like a former president who endorses with ten points, if you're, just a random person who works at and see, that's one point so the three Lincoln there's there are Booker Harrison global Chart. However, three of them, almost all their endorsements, are in their home state. If you look at

it's gotten the most endorsements outside of their home state, it's burn Sanders an Beto O'Rourke who only have like three or five each, but that's interesting, and so they do have like distinct brands. I think Sanders, certainly the to the left. I think that, though, was kind of like the voice of squishy sort of sort of not like that. I think he's more like not left, then he is something else right. What I'm going to need some clarity. He like a moderate with a different sort of aesthetic like uh order it with a progressive aesthetic, he's saying you can't say what he is, but you can't say what he's not here: twenty. Second, I do. Is it really a moderate means now he's he's a liberal with a moderate, a static. I mean honestly, maybe that maybe liberals a right turn and what he has to a liberal arts. He is an aesthetic, pardon substantive part right, yes, which and there's some dissonance there correct yeah, maybe just live,

was the right way? People misinterpret liberal we've got, I think more sensitive on this podcast and at the site to distinguishing kind of roll from laugh, like liberal meaning, like you know, you like gay people on immigrants and be kind of leave and markets, and you think markets have to be regulated a little bit. So big group, it's a big group. It's a big popular group. You know there were some kind of Bernie supporters on Twitter being, like you know, a Plato's account every just wanna like watch Netflix with their liberal for ends right like yeah. That's like the democratic base right. That's like the democratic base, like most people, do not a prong out of the democratic base. Republicans watch Netflix Republicans. Don't It's like you know, welcome to watch Netflix log cabin Republicans who watch Netflix. Gay people.

Officially, America's number one LGBT Q, electoral politics we talk about who we think is, who we think is faring Bast. Can we talk about? Who is maybe not doing so well and also, if it's clear that their potential support has just gone elsewhere, if it's shifted as more people have gotten in the race. I has it in to answer this because I'm I'm more willing to look because so early, I'm more willing to say hey. This is this. This is looking pretty for someone then, I am to say, don't to like rule someone out yeah with that kind of yeah. I think you know Lizabeth warning kitchen jewelery under much more anemic. Looking that I thought they would be yeah. I agree and that's what I'll say it like that, the I'm a little bit surprised and we want to have a broader conversation about the role The media is playing in all of this and we actually are going to have this conversation at the live show on Wednesday, so either come tune tunein after the fact, but just to kind of do

is a little bit 'cause. I think it is important talking about the rollout. How much can Well, does the media have over how someone's rollout goes, total control, but battle is a good example of how like with hard data. You can like prove the media. Narrative is bs, I don't didn't the media all for after him? Yeah, I think you can you can't leave, can't rewrite the history of like better or being like a media creation in some in some ways, the Vanity Fair profile yeah? No, before that, like that, literal. Media made him a national since they know in little- and I thought I thought like this show, for example, is pretty snarky about betas chance. We can always made fun of people who thought all the search to be close for yet, but we're not representative of the media, more general and also at least we were talking about our special and we were talking about yeah. We are so usually usually you want in a you want me to cover other things held equal, but you also want low expectations Trump in twenty. Sixteen benefited from the perfect storm of the most amount of coverage imaginable, but very low expectations. You know it see

Beto was going to get a ton of media coverage, but also have these kind of very high expectations, but still. I think, manipulating the media's expectations with respect? This fundraising raising was pretty small. But yeah look. I mean I don't really think that the media has a great sense for like what democratic rank and file voters really want, and that not just the beta who we have to actually see if there's movement in the polls, but a little bit is about last week to a Sanders and Joe Biden to who are kind of scene, I think, is like sort of boring story. You know what they have to say right, but they are like pretty far ahead of anyone else in the polls are also quite popular. Among Democrats, it's not just name recognition, We were talking about Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Angela Brands. Anemic numbers I mean: do you see the process having play role in their role or is it deeper than that? So in children's case

I think she is she having troubles indoor endorsements to granted. She only officially announced I guess recently, but She has some, I think, for like Al Franken problems. To put it glibly. Warren is a more complicated case. I think her pre rollout roll out with the dna test did get her bad press coverage but also, I think, bad feelings with in a certain political, professional class activist class that I think herder. That said, I mean warn RT had the kind of demerit points of like middle aged woman, who reminds people that Hillary Clinton lost again to put it glibly but, like I think, you should consider that yeah, so I don't know I mean I don't know that I can assist early, blame that on the media, so much as some self inflicted wounds some. Why would

general american atmosphere, conditions of yeah. I would blame it on voters and the media and Martin, but we're specifically, would you blame the media, I guess maelstrom, the media's play up playing up the native Americans yeah just the media's preference for sort of the criticism coverage, but look like in dad the media often gets the kind of voters wrong and as out of touch with what? What voters really think and want and are doing, but they still, the media still does have the power of like who it, let's on the stage so date is preliminary, but we're going to write about I'll be up this week so, for example, Gillibrand, has gotten almost no media coverage like she's, just like not present in people's lives. I don't think now so early right, better again still preliminary numbers, but he's got as much your coverage for his announcement as almost sanders. More

then Warren more than Booker, more than club Afshar, then Harris far more than ours. So the Harris got some coverage sort of a few days afterwards. So, like China says not like everybody is sort of gets the same treatment of course everywhere right. It's like you know. Well, maybe the best lunch there are people who have unexpectedly broken into the top tier, which is nobody but unexpected. Regular second here, which is like which I guess and maybe there's going to be a Yang moment. I think it's like we're kind of half curling a little bit, but a judge has had like an interesting class like week. I would say where you know there is this viral tweet about, like PETE, put a judge, learn how to speak Norwegian. You should read a book he's very smart man, these little bit of problem for better. By the way, I think they kind of have a pretty overlapping message, but Touch seems a little bit more considered about some stuff. I mean by the way, I think, a lot of Elizabeth Warren's problem that the Bernie Sanders brand remains very big and people are very loyal.

Him. You know, I don't think it's a alt of I can't anymore than any other candidate, but they are very loyal to Bernie and like there was a time when, like Sanders is pulling it like fifteen or sixteen percent a couple of months ago, and it seems Maybe people just right like totally turn the page and then he launches and gets up to the mid, twenties polls, raises a lot of money. You know develops a big press following in so and so Bernie is, you know, I know it's like we're. Post lanes. Now lane, I don't think we are ever a post post lanes, my post post lanes. You know I think Bernie is in proto lanes. I think Bernie is in Elizabeth Warren's Lane and I just a bowling we're going to you. Karaoke yeah are going to giving our tomorrow

which is not gonna, be a choice for the live show, but anyway, I I think going back to like the original question here. I think of if you, if you force me to pick one person who has had the best sort of like stage one of this ten stage campaign, I think the answer's that sounds for entry. I guess part of what you're, considering that in that right. Is that better and they were already celebrities before they ever announced, and a lot of people probably didn't know who Harris was that's exactly burn. Meadow and Biden if and when he announces they're going to get a huge rush of coverage when they notice powers didn't actually and then sort of quote, earned earned the coverage you know. In any case, I think it's fair to say that this is early days in any of the indicators that we're talking about will evolve and nobody should be putting too much stock in anything at the moment, so

Thank you for it. Thank you for indulging. All of this still come to the live. Show it in here is put stock in it yeah exactly we didn't draft. I think we are doing it. Okay, hey who the draft all right, I think we're gonna. We leave it. Thank you may thank you. Thank you for what I'm humdinger Thank you. Thanks for having me it's good to be back Claire. You weren't at all, contentious, that's just not, who might, yeah, I'm can to grill. I'm an agreeable person scale and rigatoni chat in the control room you get in touch by ear. Sing a sad podcast at fivethirtyeight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store thanks for listening and we'll see,