And senior politics, rider, Perry, Bacon, Junior Highbury, Hague Ideal. I got you I'd, intellectually and ers. I didn't sleep last night hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop, and election day is finally upon us, as we sit down to tape no, The third is a matter of hours away. According to our forecasts, Biden has a ninety percent chance of winning the election and Democrats have a seventy six percent chance of winning control the Senate. They are nearly certain to maintain control of the house with a ninety eight percent chance

you, five million Americans have already voted and tens of millions more of a vote tomorrow with turn out expected to break records. Unless something unexpected happens. This is likely our final episode before our election night part cast, in other words the next time you hear from us the next time. You were fresh, your pipe cast feeds. We may have a good sense of the winner of the election or it could become clear that it will be days or weeks before we know results either way. I just want to say thank you for joining us on the journey of covering this election. Up until now, it's been a while the year, and we hope that we have helped make sense of it in some way and of course we are not yet done so. What are we gonna do too we're going to check in on the very last of the pools, we'll take a look at how the campaigns are closing their arguments to the american people reflect a little bit on the past year and give you a tick tock.

when poles were closed tomorrow and when we should expect results- and here with me to do that are editor in Chief need, silver, Henny, Adieu and also with us, is sooner politics: writer, clam alone, hey Clare, high Galen and senior politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, junior Highbury. Tell you how everyone doing migrating good good stay healthy, that wellness podcast still on its way made? How about you can open the fourth while a bit here goes. No look, I mean first, I think the overall journalism reduce very multifaceted and really good in terms of like the model, I think if people are more rational, then they wouldn't care, whether a ten percent chance or ninety percent chance comes up. If we're calibrate, written Lyra notes are true but ordinarily I'd say: okay well, nutty tat is pretty optimal in some ways because it means like it electoral. Some suspends began to be right next to the time in the way that people who don't Stan probability, think of right and wrong, but I feel that way

because I feel like the election is obviously extremely consequential, masher quite how to calibrate this speaking. You calibration, but, like you know, think about Trump's closing argument be like I'm going to fire Dr Foutch E. I think it's actually allowed to fire doctor patchy, but after the spanish kill to meet with five thousand people, And it's say our strategy for winning- is that we have to be ahead by some arbitrary standard on. Tuesday and then come ambiguity as their jobs thereafter, any what the fuck is that some normal election year. So the question is like how do News organizations like five hundred and thirty eight cover politics going forward. If trump wins I mean the polling part is a particularly so it's like what kind of a democracy are we living in or not, but anyway, I just want to kind of lay the steaks out there

You know. Do one thing: if trump winds and trunk can win legitimately re our miles mostly trend of Europe as a result of legitimate win. But the fact that, like she has closed his campaign, even in a way that would I think I never lead to casting doubt on the other community wines fairly. I mean, I think, that's a big problem. You know I mean anyway, I'm babbling I liked it. Galen was expecting, like I M, going from walks in preparation, and it wasn't like I'm here to play. This is what's on my mind, I like the energy, while I definitely have questions that were aimed at getting to that point in the conversation, but you can't just came out guns blaze again and to shape fair enough, but I do want to take a step back before we get into final closing arguments and talk a little bit more about that need. I got a call from my dad six forty five this morning. He was in a panic and he said that he thought are for

ass was hacked now. That is not what happened, but for a brief moment, our forecasts show Trump with a greater than ninety nine percent chance of winning the election and various people took screenshots of those odds their floating around the internet. Various people were in a panic this morning. Can we just clarify what happened. I didn't have a winning DC ethic, nine percent. Yes, the closest ally, and the country was in DC and had in winning DC. How technical do you want an explanation, not I guess it and not very the promise it so boring. China has to be technical, ok go how so our model has some quantities that go to zero, there's something about how much for the pole shift between now and elect day and eventually it is election day, and that goes to zero and it goes to zero actually before election day. today, if you have a zero value in a model, then

dividing by zero? You can create errors that can result, for example, in the incumbent, cuz, a fault in our forecast. Winning every state we had a lot of code. It said it hey if its election day then feel in this blank with something else, instead of zero. So you don't have an error however, we didn't member that, like it actually takes in the day before the election, and so basically we had divide by zero error that cause trumped to get a hundred per cent of the two parties in every state and therefore, when every state washing DC, I'm so as I did people were paper opportunity we gotta get out of this morning or were you already awake? I was trying to sleep a minute. The hours at which I were sleeping, awake was kind of you know, often on, but like yeah and people like you, ve been hacked. You don't owe me anything. We ve been hacked like a bug in it. So happens. That's why you have to live humans. Looking models fair enough, fair enough, so we did a lot of this yesterday, parry, we got a lot of final pulls over the weekend, but things are still trickling out. So what have you had your eye on, since yesterday

so lot of poles came out since our last pipe gas, most of them sort of reinforced the General by NASA Big, led. The national Paul's have him in the upper signalled its and some in the double to like between seven and ten point lead majority always seen as shown in leading in most of the key swing states. As you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, tied in Texas, tied in Ohio, tied and I are the pollster data for progress there, a left, leaning forward. They are pretty good results during the democratic primaries in particular, so they put us. Indeed, I found vanishing in the day abide by eleven in Virginia stay with appalling for Clinton, one Virginia by five. They had trouble hidden Alabama by twenty trunk, one Alabama by twenty eight into dozen sixteen and then in Colorado, data for progress had Biden by twelve Clinton, one Colorado by five in two thousand and sixteen citizens

Those were some states are pole. Very often, mentioning only says that you can see if things go the way the polls show tomorrow, we will not just be that bind, does better swings days, but also probably do better. In non swings days, and I think that data suggests dead, that's what we're seeing to it is not just in the swing states but ass. I was curious, but seeing those statesmen data does tell you if it's right there ms gain and allow places tat. Has anybody seen data that has PETE their interest or help them conceptualize? The state of the race as it comes to a close, I think the poles have been very boring, the interesting stuff in this race, as is happening in like the alternate versions of reality, of the closing arguments. If I can secular here, a little bit, Galen go for it subway away mean yesterday, I was looking at Twitter and between edits from Chadwick Matlin Shadow Chadwick Matlin by wonderful editor, who I just feel like saying all the others, five thirty or working a lot right now so anymore, so hard Chad surf Robinson,

great job IRAN Other copied us? But anyway, I was scrolling Twitter and I came across the two: how to campaigns like to say it final argument ads and Oh binds was voiced by Bruce Springs, Bruce it was set to my home town, a great song by Bruce, but it was a super cheesy commercial right like just what you expect. Scranton, skirt and Scranton lot of white people doing working class job, some kind of like Bruce saying its Spirit of America were in tough times Papa, but they write. So it was like that was bindings, final argument, which basically, like whites of Pennsylvania, please vote for me and then there was the Trump teams closing argument kind of like a purity of abuse, Springsteen Song- and it was saying like thing you going really well actually like we're done with Cove Ed and worth waiting for

brighter tomorrow, and it was also like, oh what a lot of white people doing working class jobs but like in a different reality of things like with covert being over and we're on our way to recover We obviously we're in the middle of a third surge. Things are not over trumpets talking about firing found she on the actual campaign trail. So I just found that Those two versions to be very interesting, like the actual, Bruce Springsteen and then like the Trump campaigns like parity of abuse, Springsteen Song, and that I think, like sort of encapsulates the closing our It's like these two alternate realities will actually once a reality in one of the alternate reality where Trump is kind of spinning, some weird stuff about Covid nineteen over and there's all the stuff in these closing rally's about- and I saw this thing- it was postmarked slack about Marco Rubio kind of a plotting. Some of these trump supporters would appear to be trying to run a Biden Harris Bus,

a highway somewhere in Texas. I believe there is just a lot of troubling stuff coming out of the trunk campaign and that in the last couple of days- and so that is from you setting the tables, for maybe this conversation a little bit, which is the campaigns into be presenting two different realities, one which is the actual reality and one which is a world in which It is getting better and that's a strange, closing argument to be having an a campaign. It's not about policies, it's about realities, Clare figure for setting up that seem very well, and I want to dig deeper into it. But first today's podcast is brought you by white stream. Plenty of people have balances on their credit cards and a higher rate of interest than they might work. So why not turn those balances into one monthly payments at a lower fixed interest rate and start saving money? Late stream offers credit card consolidation loans from five point: nine five percent, a pr with ATO pay, an excellent credit,

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Slash five. Three, eight from more information, clear, just painted a picture for us of what the closing arguments look like from the Trump and bind campaigns. I'm curious what else people are picking up on on how these two candidates are closing out? What is a somewhat abnormal election? So I pull up some speeches they both given recently. So this is one from Saturday in Pennsylvania from President Shrub Enigmas fully representative, I'm quoting him. They want to defend your police and compensate your gun simultaneously, while they themselves are protected with armed guards. No, we will protect your second amendment, one hundred percent. There is only one way to

reserve, protect and defend the american way of life. You must show up on November third, so that was from Donald Trump. Obviously, some of those things were not actor in terms of getting confiscation being connected that and then this is Vice President Biden species about to give a high, and this is a couple lines from it. He says tomorrow we can put an end to a presidency that is divided this nation. Tomorrow we can put into a presidency that has failed to protect this nation tomorrow we can put an end to it, as it is. The danish span the flames of hate across this nation, so in some ways like by Miss finishing where he started, he sort of announced his campaign talking about what happened in Charlottesville twenty seventeen in his idea of unifying the country he's finishing their troublesome was hoping you run against Bernie Sanders, I think in say. Bernie Sanders would change the country too much, but he still kind of using a message of he is the defender of

traditional way of life and the Democratic Party is trying to change two months, even if his led by Joe Biden his speeches often mention a yo, see Bernie Sanders Warren, etc. Glitters is something that you mentioned in your portrayal of these closing days of the election, but we are, of course experiencing record numbers of covert nineteen infections, as we record as far as to how much of this election is being defined by the pandemic, and maybe that sounds like a very simple kind of dumb question, but the reality is, if you look at the polls going back to October, two thousand nineteen really what's so remarkable, is how stable some of Pulling has been so has it been defined by the pandemic, or has it been defined by, at the end of the day, their issues. Cultural issues like the ones there Perry just described. That's a great question. I think on some level. Yes, the selections defined by the pandemic. If you look at it from the pure mechanics other just switch

not the way that we actually do the election, so lots of mail and ballots a huge focus in the past few months on court battles in different states and obviously its guiding the Trump campaigns rhetoric about the possibility of not conceding or declaring victory before. All the votes in the country are cast. So that's it easy coloured by the pandemic. You know. I think that there are certain vote constituencies that you could say have been really influenced by the pandemic: the spectre of death and the Trump administrations mishandling of it- and I am thinking specifically here of older voters who were very firmly and trumps column in twenty sixteen and who have left him in many cases and have gone

where to go by now. I think some of that is pan dammit. I think some of that is the Democrats nominated Joe Biden, who is a centrist by the measure of the Democratic Party today, who is a familiar figure and who himself is an older person? Who is a white man, s heart of predictable figure? That Americans expect to that's what the President looks like that's a little bit of a smash thing about certain demographics have potentially been very much mood the pandemic, although some of them potentially would have been eager to vote for Joe Biden anyhow, and I think that speaks to some of the the steadiness of Joe Biden, pulling that we ve seen as you say, gallons over the year in the primaries, Joe Biden was a pretty steady leader throughout in oh

so it's difficult to say, but I certainly think that the tenor that the election has taken on the fact that all things come back to covered when it when it comes to issues. That's a big shaper of the election. The economy is not what Trump would have wanted to run on. Many conversations can be directed back to the administrations, must handling of the crisis, particularly the very beginning, and so I think from, that everything is sort of deluded into the covert conversation I mean Trump was not super popular beforehand, but you know he had a path. I think I mean the poles and had him a kid should Biden ahead by five or six. Maybe you could Bob that back with books in the economy and whatnot I mean I don't know, I think what the heck did apart from kill two hundred and twenty thousand Americans and counting is it kind of the ceiling by post mortem. When but, like you, put a level of a downward spiral where alike

they keep throwing his Hale marries line order, Hunter by and they're kind of increasingly obvious and now mean that again, I just I know I have mentioned this already right, but the fact that their strategy missing our strategy is to help the votes took account of basically in not quite that many words, but almost those words is insane right. It's insane enters. What it means for a democracy also means like you, can't get some in Trafalgar, poles or something that's so you The head and make it even win legitimately, you have to say I wouldn't have to kind of Haskins dreadful declaring victory when we haven't actually won anything. Yet I get crazy and it's a sign of weakness of their position Eric and AIDS is orange. Limited the Rummy campaign, which was much less fur behind then drunk campaign they have their internals from good, high quality, professional pollsters, and deep down, they believed them, but, like don't say my order to declare victory at half time, and then there s the game gets called off. That's insane! Yes,

and in particular what you're talking about there is after we reported yesterday actually has reported. That quote. President Trump has told confidants killed, declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's ahead according to three sources, familiar with his private comments that even if the electoral college outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania and that's from an axiom report. If I think about these four years, the election I would argue about everything in politics, is about Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a defining factor and how he handles everything His mood is manner his style, his policies, so in some ways they elect

when was between Romney and Obama in the pandemic happen. I think it might be an important factor, I think, with Trump the way he handled the pandemic from not wearing a mask to discourage going to go from wearing masks. The media coverage of Trump was already fairly negative, but if we go through a year with the economy, unemployment at four point three percent and there's no pandemic the media cartridges- worse versus the media coverage of tromp has gotten much more negative because he already with someone view, is breaking with democratic norms and lying a lot and doing things like that. But when he was running a country with a strong economy was one thing now that his style and behaviour Shirley

blame them for the death of the corona virus, but I wouldn't, I would say they have not been optically good leader during this time, so I think it's hard to separate the corona virus from tromp, but I think those two things are much more important than pretty much anything else. I think you know this is always going to be a referendum election around Trump. Is because the Republican Party and a lot of the ideas in the Republican Party have sort of substance. themselves to a culture personality is in this sense. Like this been set. A lot trump became the Republican Party Trumpery verse. Certain key platform positions of the Republican Party, elected officials and the Republican Party began to act as Trump acted in order to win trump endorsements and win support from Trump supporting voters, and so everything kind of flowed from their once people sort of subsumed. The ideas of the party took frankly like some of the ideological whims of trump. If you could call him, ideological

oh, and I think that's why it's become a wholly trumped. Centric conversation is because it so unusual that an entire national conversation becomes about just one person. I mean in the two thousand eight election. It was certainly a referendum on the Bush years right. People have already become unhappy about some of the overseas. Entangled and then the financial crash was kind of the button on all of that, but it was. certainly a referendum election, but it felt very different. Mccain people probably more of a sense that they were in it, maybe up until the crash happened, but it wasn't all about George Bush all the time and in fact some ways like. I think he probably because of personnel and differences to

in George W Bush Trump. I think he receded a little bit in people's minds and you saw the two people running for President Obama in particular, should take over in the conversation. So I just think we're in such a particular time period, where a single person dominates the national conversation and has for four years and we're, never gonna be any way around that. I am a little hesitant to ask this question because it does open up a bit of a can of worms, but given the description that you gave of how Trump centric this campaign has been in, what ways has it been similar or different to the two thousand sixteen campaign, because I was a varied from central campaign, but it was also very different campaign. So how are those juxtaposed in people's minds? Can you remember twenty? Sixteen, as Beckley

preferably travel work. I think the big factor and may be named Perry can help with this. Do is just there was so much talk about like the dynamics of sexism and the dynamics of two extremely unpopular candidates and, like Biden, seems to be a pretty well liked person, which seems notable as far as like the tenor of conversations that we about the fundamentals of the race that we're dealing with different types of candidates. Brad murmured, borne out in the data number that whole phrase take Donald Trump, literally, that not seriously. There was when they arise. Dumbest comments, time made by a journalist repeated by other journalists. It was clear you should take someone who had a decent being president was the nominee of parties take them seriously? Obviously, death said,

the biggest there was amused like I come back to the media again the coverage about Donald Wrong because he's been president for four years, because he's done pretty poorly if some of the core task of being President Times has been much more honest about the state of Donald Trump, like the big joke, is like the media cover Hilary emails too much. I agree with them myself included, but I think the other part of it is was the coverage suggested. There were two people who were both unpopular, who bulkhead scandals running for resident verses. Now the coverage is much more like one person, Joe Biden has fewer scandals and Hilary. I agree, but also Hunter Biden. Whatever happens, turbine was covered with differently, then

the young email controversy was an Donald Trump taxes and in a lot of stories about Donald Trump are being covered. Much more bluntly would create a different environment. The election, the Kobe crisis, I think, has made this election much more. I would say serious in terms of its coverage and much more serious than terms have like. We have a huge crisis in the country happening, and I think therefore, people are viewing. It differently will see tomorrow, but I'm guessing people are not as open to less try it out some worsen has never done this before. I think their need How is more demand for a kind of experience, sober person, because it what's happening in the country with a pandemic but to the Clinton, email scandal comparison and this election in a world where there had been no cove it? We would have been paying more attention to the Hunter bindings type stories, even if it were like, whenever the newer posed version of it, they would be more stuff about like the binds or net Batista like that would be the alternate.

Audi, and I think that you look at the way that the Biden campaign kind of prepared for the attacks on Hunter. They had him sit down with a new Yorker for this really big long in depth. Piece at the beginning and like you only give that kind of access. If you know it's a story that you want to like get out ahead of so like that, I think would have been the scandal or the thing that we talked about, but then Covid nineteen along and it just changed. The all of the conversation Knit you mentioned that you didn't want to make us on too much like post mortem, and I think this is good reflections on what does campaign has been like before we know the result, because once we know the results, that's going to shape all of our retrospectively the campaigns up until now. But I do want to ask you so you published an article late last night. Titled quote I'm here to remind you that Trump can. Still when I'm sure you ve gotten a lot of feedback on that and I'm sure a lot of people have read it and we got a message from Matthew and here,

I really been enjoying all the election articles on your site for the last few days, very impressive work from the whole team? But do you think that someone should write the counter tonight's article about how trumped can still when I feel like the entire world, is so fixated on this ten percent chance that everyone has forgotten about the ninety percent chance. That Biden could win. Every Democrat I know, is scrapping their pants in fear of a second Trump term, and every Republican I know is convinced that the poles are wrong and there will be c of never ending mega hats at the polls on November, I'm sure I feel like, I'm the one being gaslight and that a ninety percent chance to win is actually an underdog. So I thought there was a thoughtful message from Matthew and curious what you think about that. I yeah that we're at a point where maybe people are thinking about the person with the ninety percent chance of winning the election is treated almost like the underdog

if people are very affected by the recent events that are prominent in their minds. Obviously people think they're good intuition is powerful, but the gun intuition because powerful with like repeated experience in a really can overrate the most recent experience, and so it's kind of a time. We have the kind of put your gut aside although I wouldn't say my good side, not I wouldn't say you got healthier on the needs of our wellness bob, my gut for awhile- was there ever be terrified to predicted by men. I therefore, by beginning a landslide right, my contrary got by you know

We do have a more article to write our final forecast article in there a couple things to keep in mind, I'm going to steal the thunder from this a little bit. So what are reasons to think that the ninety percent will come up or given the ninety percent is conservative? What reason I think is that Trump did not win by very much last time that he won by basically seven tenths of a point in Wisconsin. You know I'm in Pennsylvania, Michigan Florida all within one point, or so he won against an opponent that a lot of people didn't like if the people that died like Clinton, had just put fifty fifty with him, then trumpet loss, if couldn't even some of the people like more than he would have lost pretty big. So it doesn't take that much between number one, some people. as of sexism or but her emails or because, whatever someday didn't like Clinton Sewing

I can tolerate Joe Biden and there's plenty of evidence at Joe Biden is a tolerable option for irish people than either tramper Clinton was right and you see people alike switch because there's been a pandemic, gets killed to an untrained, hasn't peoples. Those I'm running the country today, it doesnt seem that unlikely that some small fraction of trump voter some of them, voted for Obama and he's been western states in two thousand and twelve and by Mr Vp. It seems pretty logical. That between, combined more and the pandemic that some small fraction of them would switch back to democratic party. And if a poll shows how If you knew nothing else about the election right. You like well from early one another giant pandemic, grandly really poorly, so ok to hell lose now. Maybe Trump could make up for that with higher turn out by problem is that the early voting date, everything to be very careful about suggest that were looking to mate with a very high turnout by Democrats, are almost at looking to have. I turn out right, so you not going to have a differentially high turnout, necessarily, and so, if you think about

That how little Biden has to do relative to Clinton to win now, maybe not by a cupful margin of a mathematical college, then that seems like a pretty easy task and that checks out with the polling data that we have, I think, a lot elites, think our well, I mean, I think, can be honest, I think, a lot of literally service nearing attitude toward everyday Americans and I think giving these people are so stupid and so racist that, of course, economic for travelling would exert ashamed of it. I don't know I've always from it shit from the theory kind of actually very disdainful toward it we Red State America. Whatever else you know I mean, but like is hard to imagine Americans in this pandemic. All your things have happened: people in the countries joining the wrongdoing. And one of the main even like Trump. Last time it took a chance or, like Hilary last, you just have a hard to imagine a tiny number of people switching and voting for Biden when they didn't buffer Clinton,

the shy Trump thing has always seemed funny to me, because I mean it comes from shy. Tories writer, like this very kind of british, I read the stereotypical psychology of the different nations onto that like in the shy Tories thing, people, one sort of politely say like I'm, not voting for the person who you think is scary and maybe The bad, an american people are kind of like this issue. I am voting for this is the guy war in the american context. There is the broadly a fact right and so people her friend, and also as the Forest Bradley effect at certain social desirability buyers, does not exist in american surveys right, but in the trunk case, is that the whole point of is the Trump has always existed within this own silo in american culture that even the troubles technically, socially unacceptable for, like his entire time in public life, he was socially acceptable because he was Trump. Therefore saying that you liked tromp was socially accept

Well, because a kind of men who were like, like this guy he's kind of a thing and being kind of a thing, is very american. We, like big characters like Paul binding in all that stuff. Whatever I worked burglar, so the question last year was Matthew. Yes, so Matthew I'll say I talked a lot about begins. There are plenty of them who are pretty much. Assuming Biden is going to win the election like if you heard Miss Mc Connell's comments last week about Baron. Was you basically said this is the way being the Democrats can't unwind we're doing Reno. right now. I also imply democracy and unwind in the next election, meaning this one much of what the Republicans have done, which I think Mcconnell as hinting Biden binds to win, there's a column by Henry also conservative colonies in the washing posts. laying out bite and winning threaten pity electoral boat. So there's plenty republicans who I agree. The Democrats overly concerned about Trump winning, probably outside of the evidence into

appalling, but I understand why they are twenty succeed. They think Trump is are bad president and even is terrible and so on in terms of these shy trump thing, I will just say I'm with Galen in the sense that I read enough data to conclude that the shy tromp voters are probably do not exist, that Sid as politics becomes more racial eyes. I have been surprised the shy trombone. Her is not a thing because it looks to me like, as the discourse becomes being for tromp is associated with the bad racial attitudes, would not be surprised if some people are wary about saying that for drop. The data is not showing that, but I am open to the idea that it could Yoda that's an interesting point period because it's like, I think that the trumps supporters have and the champion itself have kind of done. These somersaults to say like we're, not racist were against pc culture.

Doesn't let you say the things, but that's not racism. Right, there's, like all these somersaults of people have to go through, but when you come back to is like prior to tramp in some, is there was kind of a national bipartisan understanding that Racism was bad and sexism was and there were certain kind of agreed upon expressions of racism and sexism that were bad. I think there were certainly Douglas. That's not what I'm trying to say before Trump. There were dog whistles, but they were certain lines that you couldn't cross and under Trump, particularly on race, those lines have been pushed for. Begins. Where they're like that's, not racism, that's me being able to speak freely or something there's. This weird making racism, partisan, obviously, people have identified, which party there racial views fit into an that's accelerated since Obama, but Trump has like turned the key, even more work

Well, I think, feel less shame about what is racist speech and racism, but some of it has been kind of excised by, like will Democrats are being too sensitive about this, and that is really interesting and it's like I am expressing it well, but it's like a difference. That's happened under Trump. I think, and we offer one. observation, a larger and kind of compromise, so so many surveys that trying to test for herself Billy by his do see that there are some impact. If, for example, you ask about black lives matter or if you ask about questions that directly get to race indirectly and the same survey, so you don't have much effect with Trump. So the notion that you can like rationalize away, you wrote for Trump, I'm not race, suggest for America. First, I'm not racing just for lower taxes, I'm not racist and just for in making sure that families are protected? That kind of thing so, but what am I guess, I'm saying, is not sure that necessarily a gap between people's private cells and their public selves. There

I think it may also be true that people, if they think of Trump standing for racism will actually not over him if it can supplement that and be racist, but think of triumph for some other rational arguments themselves of it. Then they will for him, but it must be perfectly happy to tell you that to a poster because they are not like themselves. Thinking of it, is they rationalized to themselves right? So the ocean, like this dividing line, comes exactly between When you talk to upholsterer and when you go to vote, which is also not entirely private, why do people vote in most states kind of irrational about most internet swing states, even if you aren't reinstated you're one, but will matter a pretty low. I mean voting itself is kind of a public act. So therefore lift we like voting and talking to bolster, may actually be very small. One thing related. This conversation is, if you told me, we have some of the largest protests in american history. They would happen about ray.

The issues they would happen in the middle of presidential campaign, as we saw in June and July, I would have said they will have some impact and if you ask me, I guess I would have said they would be bad for the democratic good for the rock, like my general assumption, and the more the democratic party sinners around gonna go racial issues. Is Canada, Worse for them- and I would argue this is a big event that happen. The protests have their George Floyd ain't. The clearest can be. The protests really didn't change the election that much at all Biden was leading by around eight to ten before they started afterward. If you look at the polls closely, it appeared by naturally went up in the polls during that period because Trump shed tear gas shouted people which I would never just the in president would do, but that period, which is worth remarking upon something those too much were the sort of law and order of Tromp verses Biden. Basically talking about this racism in that debate was a big part of this campaign and Biden

neutral position. He was not even in the belief that you did take the protesters some of their general ether and he didn't lose their argument, and I would have thought he would have an trump fundamentally, I think, misjudged, what swing voters? Why? from that or independent leaning voters, Trump thought that Suburban. I wanted to hear race, baiting, stuff we continue. Europe's talked a suburban housewives of Amerika. You know the mysterious organization of Housewives banded together You know talking to them about what will we will we're? Not can bring section eight housing into your suburbs like pretty explicitly racial? I stuff, like that's, not who the white suburban colleges, Did woman is they were probably more likely to be sympathetic to the protest or, at the very least not be sympathetic to you as Perry said some of the stuff. That Trump did, that your gas, the Bible, holding up photographs thing so like Trump's conception of who the swing voter is? Is

Unlike Richard Nixon suburbs, to be fair in its role? I would argue: mine was until this, so I e from solutions were my assumptions. I don't think they were crazy about where I was open to the idea that he was right about this or politically read about this, not on substance. Well, I am forward to having a much even deeper. precision about how the different nuances of the cap. Pain and dividing lines of the campaign played out once we have results hand, but I do want to move on and talk about the tick tock of pull closures and are editorial a total planning here at five. Thirty eight before this pike ass ends and so too Do that I am going to bring in one of our colleagues, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy stuff recruiter its election. time and whether you ve already voted, or you still need to vote. Is our countries chance to choose the best candidates for President VP and for hundreds of people in Congress? That's a lie.

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slash five three eight zip recruiter the smartest way to hire a right for our final segment. Our colleague Nathaniel wreckage elections analysed here at five. Thirty eight is joining us to share a run down of when the Poles will close in different states and regions of the country and when we might be able to expect results. So came a thing: you're welcome to the past Hayin so This is like the fundamental information that everybody needs in order to you don't watch those results come in. no went to expect what started off on early poor farmers on the EAST coast and, let's run through that's what should we be watching as we take through from when a clock on down well, there are probably too many to go through every state, but knew at seven o clock. We're gonna get the Poles closed in most of Florida. We'll start to see results there for it as one state that counts its votes very quickly, so that basically, the one state that I'm pretty confident we're gonna get

some kind of answer in on election night work as exciting and the state might be able to be called as early as eight p m Eastern, which when the Poles and the Panhandle clause- okay, so we could have. not in force as early as eight p m. I am assuming. That means, if the race isn't close little notice of the good thing about Florida is that its very fast accounting ballots has been processing them for weeks. They have to have all about in by election day, unlike some of these other states where they will accept them afterwards. So, basically, we know the winner in Florida, then a couple hours unless it's very, very close in that's always the kaweah with these things right is that even in a normal year, if a race is extremely close, as we found out in Florida, two thousand, for example, it will take days or weeks to finalize the winner arrived so Florida we could now pending. How close the margin is. When did the next set of poles close right? So at seven thirty, you get North Carolina and Ohio, and those are both states that should report a good chunk of their votes early because they do a big

rob of all the city balance they received at that point, and then they should count election day votes on the normal pace over the next few hours. So we could get you answer by the end of the night in those two states. But the issue is that both of those states except asked he valets after election day, which means that, if the races to close to call those states could remain uncalled for maybe a week while the rest about common its eight o clock work. Poles are closing. Eight o clock is the big pole closing our for our purposes? I think the most important one is Pennsylvania in addition to, as I mentioned before, the last few poles closing in Florida. Pennsylvania, though, is going to be one of the slowest states to count its votes. That's because they are not allowed to even start processing male ballots until Tuesday morning, and some counties of even basically said were not even to try to counties votes on Tuesday organ to start them on Wednesday. The prediction. Currently is it? The secretary of state thinks that we're gonna get an overwhelming majority of the votes in by Friday, but given the experience in the primary it could go even long

than that all rights are now we're getting a little bit later into the night. It's nine ten o clock. What should we be expecting? Yes at nine o clock will also get a lot of swing states. So this is when the last pulse those in Michigan and Texas Elbow Most of the poles no states will actually close at eight o clock. In addition, this is one Wisconsin in Arizona closed their pulse, so these data kind of all over the map, Arizona taxes- should be relatively fast account. Those are also state that it's very close- we may not know the winner for a couple of days, but we should note the vast majority of the also on election night. Michigan is a state that has said they're gonna take a few days to count, although probably won't be quite a slow as Pennsylvania. and then Wisconsin is an interesting case, because they have a similar lot of Pennsylvania, where they're not allowed to start processing the ballots until Tuesday, but they're apparently going to really take a good college. Try accounting absolutely every single ballot on election night, so their projections that some counties are going to be counting

Oh, maybe four, five, six a m in the morning, including Milwaukee County, so were hopeful that by the time normal people wake up on Wednesday morning. Wisconsin will be pretty much all reported, which would be impressive and certainly a big clue as to who's gonna win the election mediating, explain the difference of White Wisconsin is giving it a college. Try to count everything in Pennsylvania is not yeah me, that's a good question why these things are so hard to predict that it comes down to the human element and alive cases as a kind of pension before Pennsylvania seems to be there's more of a less a fair attitude toward oh. Maybe we can wait until Wednesday to start counting these ballots in Wisconsin. That doesn't seem to be the case. I'm not sure if there's a law requiring them to count them immediately or not, but there counting all night, which is definitely not the case in many counties in Pennsylvania. What you actually said, they're going to basically pack up and go home at like noon or midnight, or something and so from there are now. We have some other states, like Montana Iowa,

Alaska even over that'll take forever. California will take forever. It seems There really is a somewhat of an eastern by us when it comes to the states that are really going to be deciding this election may be other than Arizona. So I'm curious from everyone who was just listening to Nathaniel run through all of those pool closure times going to be most interested in paying attention to or what you would alert our listeners to be careful of, as these results come in. I think Florida, A tense account really fast. Florida is pretty multifaceted, diverse states. It took a different parts of Florida, Maitre D, interplay from that how different country my boat, That said, Porter was a real incorrect indicator in twenty eighteen. Where Florida A very good night Republicans and like there s a country basically wasn't seems to be a little bit careful North Carolina. It is a state where I think about chemical and after action day by an awful lot of the vote is in it were. The point has been little. Consistently. Everyone has like Biden plus two north, airliner where's boiled implicit in another

States and like it just might be a little bit more of a straightforward play for binding? Potentially, so I don't I'm can I have a premonition than if we know by winds on election night, which we may not right through North Carolina, not Florida, yeah North Carolina is interesting because auction officials actually said the other data. They expect ninety seven percent of the affair, show about to be counted on election night itself, which strikes me as a little optimistic, but it will propose an interesting philosophical question, which is even if that's true, will the race be able to be called even with ninety percent of the vote? Count it if the races extremely close within three percentage points, then I dont see. How it could be called and we would have to eight weeks so in a sense that has the potential to be a very good indicator. But on the other hand, it could really let us down there what else or votes will be watching for as results common funding perfectly honest about the way that I tend to do. My election night like I, have a special twitter list of people who will

elections, analyse who tell me what county areas are important and where the vote counts stands at those. This really, my area of expertise like I do have a sense of like oh, it will be interesting to see if we start seeing. Votes coming in from around them let's say to Philadelphia area Pennsylvania. I did a lot of black voter turnout for Biden like what are we sort of seeing those places, but there are lots of counties that I think people then I added I throughout the night wolf. You know often have my eye tuned to very specific people on Twitter or within our frankly, like our own internal slacken reporting mechanisms about what to watch like certain areas of the key states to see us. Those indicate anything about what we expect from the rest of the night, especially early on yeah. I do want to us. I cautioned people. When people are watching election results, they should take the early results with the grain of salt. So we ve talked about this.

It's of a blue shift or red shift before so, for example, in those counties in Pennsylvania that aren't aiming at a start, counting may allow its until Wednesday the results on election I'd itself will be just the impression vote, which is likely to be a lot more approach, from then on. The final result will be, in addition, when you're looking at Quantico precincts reporting on action night, those referred to the physical polling places and don't account for male ballot. So a hundred per cent of physical precincts may be reporting, but there could be thousands of male valets left account. So even if it looks at county is a hundred percent reporting take it with a grin salt before you make any extrapolations based on that, I'm curious no the results of whom will control the Senate after Tuesday night, and we didn't mention Georgia, where poles closer at seven p m. There are, of course, to send it raises there one special election and one regular: do we have sense of whether or not we're gonna, know who wins the Senate Tuesday night

Wednesday morning, or is it something that's likely to be dragged out? He had ass a great question gale, and I think that probably neither presidential can it will cost the presidency on Tuesday night? But we will probably have a pretty good idea based on states like Florida, Texas, North Carolina, who is going to win the Senate is a lot harder to draw those inferences between states and you can get a trace to a majority for Democrats in the Senate, so, for example, Arizona Colorado North Carolina mean? These are states where we should be getting a majority of results, but again, if their close than some of those races may not be able to be called like a North Carolina, but because of the possibility of multiple run in Georgia. The special action and Georgia is almost certainly gonna go to run off because it's a jungle primary and nobody can be able to get the majority of the votes necessary, but even the regular Senate race is so close that it's possible that neither John ass off nor David Purdue gets fifty percent so we could have a double barreled send an election in Georgia

January fifth, which could can decide control the Senate. In addition, Alaska is not a state that a lot of people think about when they think about control the Senate, but that's a state where Democrats have an outside shop. Picking offices and I'll ask as one state were. Actually there won't even start to count absentee ballots until the week asked election day. So I would imagine we're not gonna get a call Unalaska for a while, and I think it's important, because even if we know the Democrats have maybe clinched control the Senate, what exactly fifty seeds, I think, there's a big difference between them having fifty seeds and having if the three seats in terms of what policies they could pass in the nest Congress, so I think that, no matter what we're going to be paying attention the Senate for several weeks, afterward thinks we're the overview. It was helpful for me. I hope there was helpful for our listeners as well. We also have an article on five thirty, eight dot com, where people can read through a more comprehensive list of all of the pool closure

is timely and when we expect the vote to be counted, etc, etc. One question I have, as we wrap up here, our final pre election pie cast this something I came across either are equal and box or on Twitter. Somebody wanted to know which tabs you all are gonna have open on your browser's on election night, and I imagine that something like ready. I wished. I know, that's what I'm here for me. So maybe you want to go through all forty, but if there are a couple of you want to shout out as good places to get information on election, I other than five thirty eight dot com, Perry, what're you gonna be watching only washing, probably watch your twitter to see when the Ap Abc Abc Nbc here and, I think, win all these biggest institutions have these decision debts where they are political scientists. They have experts on data, they have people like study

had a call elections for a long time, and I think I'm gonna be pretty reliant on dams. I think ultimately guessing Dade County is this many votes in this. Ultimately, we know we need to get in a lot of their results to know. What's going on an ominous been probably less time kind of getting excited, There would have you about various results and a few counties. A kind of waiting for the Italian come out particular in a year. we have so many mail in ballots coming in exactly a year where I think there's a lot of anxieties are therefore there may be a lot of false reports. Coming through on twitter, AVI were curious when states are called and wednesdays are declared to close together, the five thirty like live, sire, thirty, eight you're an adventure yeah, I'm united, tender. Besides, five thirty have twitter and the New York Times up. I also like to have seen how Fox NEWS is covering it not the pulling side of it, but like what's Fox NEWS as homepage, showing what's a daily bales Pompidou, showing just a kind of get like conservative headlines about the way the election is going, but honestly, like an election night, I think all of us are pretty too

the entire internal slackened emails, and so you do. We get a lot of emails from the campaigns and from the vision desk around here. So I guess both Nathaniel's are here, We need to learn to like what some of the people in a busy news are telling us to do as far as race calls go, and we have five. Thirty follow what the ABC News decision desk is kind of calling and so we're paying close attention to that stuff, but obviously twitter beyond their only giving about, is salt right accurately narrative the nearness down like a college basketball coach, you having to night hurling its share across the corpse I care about is resolved. I thing- is call I could give you a narrative. it's a question of like in this time when the results are much more confusing than usual, whose can have a presentation of results, whether its their results themselves or near rated that about the narrative about the result What the narrator's on like! Oh, can. I trust that this county is

in Florida, North Carolina, and what does that mean? And because this is so new with some More male voting in early voting with its partisan split in that? I am not sure what my go site, where wind up being I'm sure, then Europe Times and washed imposed on the eight p m politico or on good blood, shall Canada to mention which one's gonna win. My attention, though, a fight for the patronage of Nate Silver Fight for needs, then, with rates for us after I have a twitter less like, unlike the one clear mentioned of all of the election night member crunch hers, I have results, pages, usually from the New York Times. I, like their presentation of the results, although sometimes F, decision desk or the official state result, is faster I'll. Go back to that and, of course, the five hundred and thirty eight long and some of the products that we ve come out with lately like the wind, expect election results in every state dashboard that you mentioned gale. In that I am a lane. I worked on also the two

an adventure interactive that night mentioned. I think this year, no it'll be Pinocchio important to say. Oh yes, I have Biden Winds forward. I at nine p m we'll use that to say is almost certainly going to win. The auction won't find you every one of us. Then a longer than usual pie cast, but perhaps its fitting, as this has been a long freaking, here and we ve had a lot to talk about before we officially wrap up this package. I do just want to go over. Some of our coverage plans for tomorrow, so are forecast, is going to freeze at midnight the number that you see a couple minutes past midnight? That is our official number for the twenty twenty election, our life is going to watch at ten o clock in the morning on election day, and it will run all day and all night until we either have a result or becomes clear we will not have a result in terms of video content. We're gonna have some updates for you. Throughout the day on the website and on you,

Cuba, Saudi in the evening we are going to have regular video updates, so you can follow us in real time, as we won't cover a podcast until later in the evening. So go subscribe to five thirty it on Youtube and also check out our live log where we have those updates as well then. Finally, as I mentioned, will be blogging away through the evening until verily we will record a podcast again and what we have a good idea of the winter we know that we will not know who the winner is in dead of night in the data I'm nice reckons get to bed before four will see you now, I'm gonna set expectations low and we'll go up from their. Maybe it's not about sex, I don't know they. What are you gonna go to bed on election? I probably be, wired either way right either it's a long night or maybe some early seeking a call for binding, in which case it might be earlier, but like then, I think about the narrative right when election is called are obvious.

We should say by the way here there is like a very awkward and betweens on that actually think thinkers decently likely, which is that, like fine wines to out Five- probably Vermont. five, but certainly to one of the five from the group areas. Florida, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina then he's gonna win the election in all likelihood. Haven't you I have two hundred and seventy callable electoral votes for Biden yet, and so that could become the state of limbo, where the outcome is obvious, but not called per se so be prepared. For that, too, are right, and, of course, as with all of these scenarios, turn into the lie blog and we were all how'd you covered for what certain raises being called means and doesn't mean so join us there on five, thirty, eight dot com, France, it has been a pleasure and an honour to cover

election with you so far. Of course we're not done, but we have a lot of it behind us. So hopefully you will get a good night's sleep. I will see you tomorrow. Thank you, Nathaniel Nathaniel, Clare and Perry. Thank scaling. Scaling did work, Godspeed jangling my name, dealing directly tony chow is in the virtual control room Clare, budgetary Curtis is on audio editing. You can get in touch my email in us at pod concept: five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also course treated us with any questions. What comments if your fan of the show leave us a reading or you and the Apple podcast cars store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and will cease her