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hello and welcome to this emergency edition of the five thirty eight politics, podcast, I'm Galen drink. All eyes have been on the court for days but thursday evening, actress, Gwyneth paltrow was found not at fault in a two thousand. ski accident. That concludes a very public trial in which paltrow countersunk for one dollar and was awarded that one dollar an attorney. Add attorneys booze that's it while the parts we want. Folks, former president Donald trump was indicted thursday evening, by a manhattan grand jury in a case regarding alleged hush money, payments to stormy Daniels, as we ve talked about actually for years now on this podcast. This indictment is historic. It's never happened before to a president, current or former, and it also

not be the last trump indictment. The reality is that at this very moment we still don't know that much more than when we last recorded apart cast on this topic last week so side. Now, if you want to primer on trumps legal jeopardy scroll down in the feed to the episode, that's titled will voters care if trumped gets indicted and you'll have all the information there. The indictment won't be unsealed until trump appear. In court, which is expected to be tuesday of next week, although reporting suggests that trump is facing more than thirty counts, related to business fraud. So today's Gas is not going to be too long, because you know we gotta wait to see that indictment, unsealed but I wanted to get people's reaction nonetheless, and we'll be back with more next week so cured meet to discuss. Editor in chief need silver. He now has a gallon, hey everybody also with us is senior or Amelia thompson to bow can mining, and Elections analysed Nathaniel raker chain Nathaniel,

goin gale and things having me it's great to how do so now you were not on last week's package where we talked about trumps legal jeopardy. So I'm curious to get your take now that this indictment has actually happened. What's your initial reaction, my initial reaction is that I am sick and tired of donald trump being the centre of american politics in this kind of probably assures he'll, be the centre for couple years, nay, this point cast is not about your personal hopes desires and frustrations. So in service to the listeners. What's your, little analysis about how this indictment shapes? You know our countries, politics I mean look. I think The fault is actually not a very sexy answer, which is that we don't we don't know and the default. That's probably all fairly price into this system right if you look like actually the scottish teens in a born abetting markets we have.

Refer to the scottish scenes in a while, and someone come up to me in the street the other day. For the scottish teens right there, like my wife for drug scottish teens and you didn't get it silent, hosting creditor blamed. Our joke the scottish teens, but on I'm political body I can try, but they are. They are basically unmoved, evading trumpets like declined, I'll bet since india it came out right as opposed to the can the kind of panic which, in the wizard of oz, is going to great for tropical cause of oda backlash We don't know a lot. I mean we kind of what the Hillary Clinton fbi stuff. She was there actually in diet of anything right but like just words and the headline was kind of bad for four Clinton in open. Well, I think their eyes like do glaze over a little bit and there like, maybe not that interested in this trap, news per se but like if you can months. It getting arrested in may or may not actually be publicly. His arrest those and so forth, but, like I think we don't We don't know that much if, like it

The trial- and he is not convicted- that seems good for trump, right I'd, say that right, then you gonna get this is both worlds, where your charge with something you can say, political, loving, your found innocent. I gotta good news for him right. Apart from that, I think the political all out is, is pretty uncertain uncertain as it means zero, but I don't think it's safe to speculate too much yeah I've in everyone's searching for tea leaves for scraps of information about how voters might be reacting, how politicians are reacting. Our colleague, Mary Radcliffe pulled out some polling from echelon insights this morning that suggested. Maybe it hurts trump in the republican primary which, as you know, when asked the hypothetical republican primary voters without information about an indictment from this manhattan. Grand jury favoured trump by twenty five point over Rhonda santos, and then, when asked the question nuno consider that trumpets indicted by this manhattan grand jury. How would that chain?

if anything or who would you prefer, and that was halved to about a twelve point lead over Rhonda santos, which would be another piece of information in support of this idea that, like the conventional pundit wisdom that this will help trump is not necessarily true, is that in this case a good or bad use of pulling at me. I'm not a huge fan of like hype, at goals. I is no longer hypothetical and polling ripe at the kind of the way if, when conducted, it was a hypothetical ok. and you see like you know, like rhonda sentence, was like the george soros. Backed prosecutes. You're entitled tromp rights or the way that other gnp hopefuls reacted. Suggest they do not think it a point to present a badge, and that may be an asset for tromp right, based on the way that they're moving around the issue. But I do think we don't know if you can like actually be convicted right. We don't know exactly what the charges are. We don't even know appear in court

Presently he will buy it. And you have another like rule of law, had been issue and can take on its own life of its own. So I don't know I mean: my default is that its mildly to him in the gnp primary and mildly hurtful to him in general election, but those are weekly held priors. and if anyone in before we dig into what legally happens next and some of the responses that initial reaction match your own. Yeah, I agree that that it's a very uncertain situation, so I just published an article on the website that kind of a laid out an argument based on the data we do have a fork and of each of the three scenarios, which is that it will hurt him that it will help him and that it would not make a difference, and I thank you You can make a case for for all three. So in terms of hurt him, Obviously, the fact that scandals hurt candidates, we know this empirically. We also know that new, republicans or not actual

do you like totally immovable off trump, a lot of them? Also like ronda, santas and and say you know, trump voters say that to santos as their second choice, though, it's not crazy to think they could move off. Him in terms of the helping you know you could see kind of something somewhere to rally round the flag effect where tromp is this republicans and her bare that a lot of republicans identify with and when he comes under attack, there might be a natural inclination to rush to his defence. In addition, as nate mentioned, the fact that other republicans are based, the even has like republican rival Our would be rivals are russian, as defence in attacking the prosecutor. Suggests that they are not going to be using this, this issue their advantage and a big part of rally round a fag effects, as when you're political opposition kind of go silent, and when you don't have that kind of you know the the the push in the push and pull back and affect the game of tug of so to speak, but then, finally, I think just if I'm personally making about you know, don't came on politics. Kids,

The agreement that now you notably on politics gambling is growing patching up up up up up early. This is, as is only getting hereditary, know. What's that gambling is awesome, down, though apps have fully yeah gamble as much as you can on politics. So yeah, if you have a gambling addiction, please come talk to me. Not me and he had twenty one knows there anyway. The I part personally, I think that the argument that it won't have much of a difference is probably the strongest. You look at some of these. The closest precedents that we do have liked trumps impeachment, like the rate of moral logo, and these things barely moved his numbers, both kind of his favorability, among republicans and among democrats as a whole, as nate mentioned, you know that is not new information. The fact that donald trump is playing

scandals is, has been baked into open public opinion of him for new six years. So that's kind of my my default expectation, but honestly none of the three scenarios which surprised me. I think mainly at this point. I want to see the charges, because one of the big questions in this case has been what is the case that the men hadn t gay is presenting because, as we discussed on the last podcast falsifying business records, which it seems like the manhattan d, has a fairly strong argument. That trump did in this case involving the payment to stormy Daniels via his lawyer, Michael Cohen, that's a misdemeanor and they're gonna want to try to elevate this to a felony, but they have to come

it to a second crime, and so the theory has been- and we don't know if this is the case, we have to see the charges and that they would be connecting it to a violation of election law. But that raises all kinds of questions you know about what new york election law could trump have violated if he was running as a federal candidate. This is a pretty novel legal theory, and so it's possible, the judge just doesn't by it again, so I think the charges themselves are gonna be really important and then the other big question for me as if this is the first indictment,

we see against tramp in the coming months or if it is followed by an indictment in georgia and potentially even by federal charges. I think the situation becomes a lot more complicated for trump, both politically and just logistically. If he is involved, embroiled in multiple criminal cases and multiple jurisdictions, while he's also trying to run for president, especially because, as we have discussed on the pod, cast the other issues which have to do some of them with trumps attempts to overturn the result of the twenty twenty election may resonate as more serious issues with the public than a hush money payment in the twenty sixteen election. So that's it.

really big, unanswered question. We may be getting charges out of georgia's soon that something where we ve just been waiting and it seemed like the prosecutor. Their funny willis has been about to decide what the charges will be for awhile and I think that's going to be a really crucial test of what the political impact will be on trump, your amelia to back that up with a gun, the same polling from echelon insight.

Asking unit republican primary voters themselves how seriously they take the different buckets of potential charges against trump. Nineteen percent said that you are paying hush money to an adult film stars, stormy daniels, to cover up and alleged fair that a criminal charge would be justified. Twenty six percent said that it would be justified in a cave in a charge attempting to overturn the results of the twenty twenty election in the state of georgia. So, amongst republicans themselves, it seems like that case is seen as more justified. I wanted to follow up on what you were saying about us waiting for the charges to be unsealed fully endorse

You know we're. I have to be back up again once that actually happens, because this has all been speculation, but one of the new pieces of information for me last night, when this will all coming out, is that the cable news channels in new york times etc started reporting that there were more than thirty counts involved in this indictment, and the talking heads were reacting with surprise to this because of how many vat is. Are you gleaning anything from legged? Then this is all speculation. But like is your thinking? Ok this be more serious than what we had previously discussed on you last thursday's podcast. I mean that was always a possibility. The preceding at the grand jury. Are you know our secret? We don't know what's been happening. We generally have a sense of which witnesses have been testifying

but the reality is that prosecutors do not bring cases in general that they think they can't win, and I would hazard that this is a case where, if you were a prosecutor, especially of elected prosecutor, you would especially not why to bring this case. If you didn't think you could win, so there's always been the possibility that there was evidence that we weren't aware of that. There was a case that that might be stronger I was also a little surprised by the number of counts, but I really just want to see what they are at this point there entered the, never doesn't matter if anything, second seminars like a thirty post twitter thread, Twenty eight those posts suck right We have good arguments, support about twenty eight pieces of bibles rights, but no, Emily is right that, like that he chose to pursue this case right in the grand jury chose to indict theirs.

information there was a data bank readily like that has to vote. I mean that's important, it's so it's it's just just under two of two dozen people on the grand jury. and it's just a majority. So it's not like all of them had to agree by I guess I'd say leg. You know the flip side of that is that even if twenty eight of the counts are, you know, trump isn't gonna be convicted on like if he gets convicted on two of them. that two felonies right I mean like- or you know, I'm in order to misdemeanours, which is also lake, not great for him better than a felony but so you know, I think that there is a way. which lawyers will often just kind of throw a bunch of theories at the wall and see sticks, and so, if they have a bunch of different theories, Dan That's why I don't like lawyers, I don't know

I'm. An airing lerigo facing real challenges mean ethic, whereas this public from I don't like warriors. Lawyers are built in when you think about politicians, yeah a lot of moderation lawyer like me, who do you like gamblers athletes? Definitely not absolutely sure. Their allies, your landlord public statisticians sure your guy. You really brought the fire this morning, next question here is basically we're gonna wrap up soon by how folks are responding. You said so far that republicans,

essentially had trumps back, even republican, to hope to become in the republican primary most likely you Nicky hayley is really the only one who's announced so far, but we're assuming that Rhonda santa tim, Scott and others will get in. So is there anything more? We should say about republicans, and if not, what are Democrats saying I mean they're, sponsoring Democrats has been pretty muted and it's just a lot of you know like trump should respect the rule of law. Let's see how this process unfolds, and so I mean I dunno. Is there something I've missed there? That's that's fiery, or I think Democrats are just sort of trying to hey like this is a legitimate process. Let's let it proceed and see what happens to Hillary tweet about it. Did she seem like law and order, or am I making that up? Was that, like a fake ai generated tweet, I think what you're referring to was like a totally fake account because definitely something from Hillary Clinton did go viral last night, but it was like see you in jail and she said,

I guess you could say that, although you never know I would. I would have respect no sorry it was not that it was, it was locked who up it got thirty more than thirty thousand likes, and the name is the account has been suspended. Now but it got twelve thousand flowers in the course of that and it was turn up in spelled hill, and then Clinton was see one one anti around, so I think it might be worth you're referring to name, but that is not real, Ok, any any real responses, any real responses from Democrats. If anyone wants to mention no, I think That's true! I there's no point in luck. If he's convicted. You can say something right. There's like no point in like getting.

And the story when we don't know what the charges are, if you're a democrat- and we don't know if there is going to be convicted or what the consequences are right like no, I think Democrats were. I mean that product elected officials were fairly, right. There was like a fairer remember ago, have some drinks I write Oh I like someone. I know. what was the mother stuff right. Didn't I like rather motherlike candles. There is like that that kind of crew is like excited. I think, but imperfect elected officials It was an official way to respond were mostly pretty muted seems correct to me. Okay, so what happens next year? We have to wait to see these charges unsealed, that's the most important piece but like what's the timeline here I mean, could trump be the president of the united states when this goes to trial?

I mean the legal system moves slowly. I don't think it moves that slowly and so he is gaming. The next. The immediate next steps is that he is treated like other people who are arrested in new york. So you know it's kind of like the stuff you see on t v. He is gonna, get his fingerprints taken, he is going to have the photographs, take him and there are some questions, apparently about whether he will be handcuffed or like whether he'll be handcuffed in the front or the back, which I didn't realize was a distinction, but apparently is something that matters and then you know he's not gonna be held on bail. This is a non violent offence. So he's he's gonna be released and then

you know, I mean it's like it's possible. He takes a plea to you. I don't think he will come back. Then we all see the timing kind of unfold from their right wall me back here approximately, time. Next monday, although we still won't have unsealed charges on monday, presumably, but we will have to talk about is actual elections in wisconsin and Chicago, we'll see right here on Monday, I should also mention before we go need we have alive shop in brooklyn on April now do are you excited, I am a like. I, like the marshals referred they're, pretty get the pretty fun we're gonna have special guests. I figure me, I'm not even gonna tell you once I once I broke the special guess: I'm just gonna,

I think I'm just going to occur and you will get pretty good your reaction in real time, but folks can get tickets at five. Thirty, eight dot com, slash live show again, but the people nineteenth in brooklyn at seven thirty at the bell house, five thirty eight dot com slashed, live show that is it for today. Thank you, Emilia Nathaniel. I mean thank you and thanks Galen. My name is Galen droop tony chow is in the control room and also on video editing. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple pot. store where ever you listen to your podcast or you can tell someone about us thanks. Animals