What you have for breakfast eight excellence, Jerry welcome to an emergency rex to listen, is helped five. Thirty, eight hot cast. It's been so long since we've sat around this table and talk my name Jody have again, we all found out on twitter this morning that Donald Trump has fired Secretary of State Rex to listen and plan. To replace him with CIA director MIKE Pompeyo? I think Rex Tillerson also found out apps on twitter as well? We'll discuss that here to talk about the news editor in Chief Nate Silver Hill, innate ability senior politics. Writer, clam alone, hello, Claire, Hey Jody Anne Washington, editor Hillary Krieger, hello, Hillary you're, here at trial by fire, your first appearance on the podcast, and it is an emergency podcast. So we're just doing it right into it. It's exciting! Yes, it is all very exciting. So there's lots of talk about, I think

During some of these emergency podcasts we've we've asked this basic questions like how big of a deal is this we really need to do that right. Show of hands is a big deal of one nodding in agreement. Yes, I think he'll try. This is a big deal, so how about this? For free market? this conversation. We published an article on the site a few weeks ago from our colleagues, Amelia, Ann, Andrea and the articles. Title is five questions to ask every time someone leaves the Trump administration how conveni We will go through those five questions which kind of give us a sense of how to process this Big NEWS, so the first question on their list. First question: our list is: how long was this person on the job o Claire. He was care and year ago so, neat year. This is, it was at the question. Yes, he's been here a year now, but what do we make of that? That's Tillerson had a pretty contentious relationship with Trump from the beginning.

This is maybe the wrong words. So much as a passive aggressive relationship with Trump there's been a lot of stuff in the press. That Tillerson is sort of made it clear that he is did not enjoy his tenure. He reportedly called Trump a moron after a national security meeting and in general they disagree on foreign policy. I would say so tell her soon as kind of seen as having an establishment quote unquote mindset when it comes to foreign policy, so he encouraged Trump to stay in a lot of international agreements. The US had entered into previously- and I guess a year in Trump decided goodbye to all that. You know: we've got this list of names now this shocking amount in the Trump administration. I'm not going to read the names, but you know he's gone prices, gone, Sean Spicer's, gone, hope, Hicks is gonna, get cones God. I can't even remember if we did emergency podcast about all these people. Just

Or at this point, but Hillary I mean one years of a stint at state. That's pretty short right, yeah, that's very, very short statements to be one of the most stable positions. It's seen as one of it's the most important one of the closest advisors to the president. They usually are working very closely on issues, because it's important that You travel abroad, as the Secretary of state you're, seeing is representing the president and being a direct line to the White House and this case nobody has seen Tillerson that way so There are a lot of things that are very staying and different aspects to what's going on and and questions that are important to ask, but I do think a fundamental part of what was happening here is that larson- did not have the respect and backing of the president and that made him very ineffective when he was going abroad, and this gives Trump a chance of having somebody who can be seen as much more a direct conduit for him yeah, and you saw I mean you saw it yesterday when

Teller sin made a pretty pointed statement that had to do with the you know. Great Britain has said. We believe that this, a former russian spy who was poison on our soil, was poisoned by the russian government and tellers and basically said yep. I think that too, and the White House very pointedly said well sanders? Well, we can't. We can't quite be sure right now that it was the Russians, blah blah blah and LO and behold, the next day Rex Tillerson is out of job now That's I'm not saying it was necessarily that that straw that broke the camels back, but I do think that's a very potent point about where they differ and it's on. Obviously Russia, which has become such a contentious issue in the Trump administration and kind of a place where a lot of maybe cabinet members and trump differ. I'm curious to see if this is an ongoing theme, I'm going to predict that this is going to be an ongoing at number. Two on our list of questions is is was: was this departure planned? You know Claire got a little bit to it, in terms of the timing, but just in a general sense, we already mentioned things

going sour in this relationship. But what's your sense of why now and how much thinking into this departure, I mean. Do I look like Maggie in or something I don't know. I don't know this. I don't know like someone who may be followed Maggie here on twitter I've been busy, so I haven't had a chance to read her reporting other reporting. Obviously, Orson learned about this in real time, which often indicates a lack of preparation when someone isn't prepared with Gary Cohn, at least they prepared statement, and it was obviously more coordinated and Crump kind of left the door open for here might be job man sometime in your future. This seemed, although obvious You know I mean there literally are betting markets on this stuff. You know Tillerson, it's not like a doc that Tillerson was fired. It was one of these things that was like a bad marriage where it was like a clearly mismatched from the start from day one. You know the wedding planning went badly and then you're like this, like it's not going to last. This is going to be one of the ones that match their fifty percent divorce. Yeah. I mean this seems. There is some indication that the right knee.

And this is a little fuzzy right now, but there seems to be some indication that maybe John Kelly told Tillerson sometime before the weekend. Hey your days are heard, but they didn't give him that night it is, they didn't give an exact. Dateline on that and some people are saying well he's Tillerson found out really this morning, and other people are saying: no. He found out with the tweet, so I think we can safely say is the rollout was had not been planned for, for weeks. On the other hand, it was widely expected for money. Actually yeah. That's true, and in some ways everybody in the world knew about it before Tillerson, because he kept on saying no I'm, committed to you touring Africa this week. Actually this weekend, as this was all going down saying that he staying and committed, etc, and really there's been rumors that this is going to be happening.

Such a long time and the pump Peyo would replace teller sin in part, because Pompeii has a an incredibly close relationship with Trump, especially for CIA director, he's part of a lot of the daily briefings at the White House, you're doing actual briefing himself. So compare I'm you know, is a guy who had the president's ear so yeah and we'll talk a little bit about what we know about him, but just to there's there's a statement floating around that came from the state Department won't, read the whole thing, but it starts with the secretary till had every intention of staying because of the critical progress made in national security than late it says the secretary did not speak to the president and is unaware of the reason, but he is grateful for the opportunity to serve and still strongly. The public service is a noble, calling think it's safe to say that's a strange public

statement to sort of go out of your way to say I don't know why I'm getting fired. We know we should also note. Yes, god we're going to do this, we're recording at one hundred and forty five pm. We are hearing rumors that way we're not hearing rumors. We know that the State Department official, who made that statement, has now been fired by the White House, and we have also just learned that Tillerson, it's one hundred and forty seven now, according to my computer tillerson, is supposed to make an on camera briefing in fifteen minutes right? So we don't know what he's going to listeners when you're. Listening to this, you will know we'll see what that is, but in a larger sense, why does this ticket when he knew what he knew, maybe even the like why he got fired. What the specific sort of trigger for getting fired at this moment was. Why does that matter I mean, does it change anything we fundamentally know about the way Trump operates. I think we're trying to and in some broad sense, where the White House is on a trajectory toward management or more chaos or if it just bobbing around and treading water

given day you can given day of any given month right. You can have weeks when it seems like it's one or the other cores, but look Trump is now fired or had replaced counting the CIA direct twenty five members of his cabinet through one. In two months into his presidency. The record for two years into the presidency is or with Bill Clinton. So he has already surpassed the record at least once since Carter, since we've tracked with nine months to fire, more people so this is kind of now sounds like a challenge he's on he's on pace for nine, so you can paste a double bill Clinton. Can we give this metric that you just markets go ahead? Can we give this metric that you just invented a clever, clever name at some point? Kay Ometer, but certainly with

I'm leaving in, like hope, Hicks leaving. I mean this is like one of the most tumultuous periods and these are not trivial. I know I mean to me you like project out like what does the White House look like in four years? Was it with real actions? it is possible. Obviously what it look like in seven years I mean like how can you have this level of turnover and to sustain that over the long run I mean it's it's becoming like pretty unprecedented. You know you could make the argument that this is a move toward stability in the sense that there was this very bad relationship between Trump until our sin and there's a much closer relationship between him and pump patio. But it's not just about these two personalities. It's also the wider administration and tellers and had a great relationship with defense, Secretary, Mattis and that gets disrupted. You had relationships with John Kelly Chief of Staff and within the National Security Council, and so, when you're talking about what this does it, you also have to look across the administration and what they mystery is doing internationally, involves many different

well and you're, going to see more staff leaving from state department. As a result of this throws into question. A lot of you know how does Madison since he's been seen as a moderating force on the President maintain if he doesn't have this kind of alliance, so I think that you know there's for sure. Is going to be disruption. Have figures level in this volume across the administration, yeah changing and just talking about Madison. Would you bring up a good point? I mean there was reporting earlier. This fall that Mattis Minu Chin and tellers and had entered into quote unquote suicide by the someone after that, one that if one of them was ousted by the didn't. They would all leave. Now, I'm not saying that it's going to happen, but if it does happen in the next twenty four hours, say I called it. So so so when you do this, what you write it on the sheet of paper and everyone gets a copy and you put it, you bind it up and you hide it in some sort of like shoe box or there might be a blood pack, but I mean

whether there's an actual sort of packed these three or not, which Lord I want to believe that it. Is this notion that there are the sort of stabilizing forces and they're tied to each other? I think is really and yeah and also we're. I mean we should know that the US is now going to enter into talks with North Korea in a couple of months. So Trump has just grown into casts a bit his team that is going to be the front line on those diplomatic talks, and he has put in Pompeii or you know, obviously has to be confirmed, but that guy is a hawk, very much verses, tellers and who is sort of the personification of a like slow talking, softspoken company man in many ways and pompeyo is very much the opposite of that. I'd encourage people to listen to a talk he gave at AI just a month ago. That's interesting. I mean it sort of gives you a bit of his personality and a lot of his points of view

It's quite ironic that actually, what trump is really crowing about is his great farm policy achievement this past week was this announcement of talks with North Korea, which first of all, I think, is a misinterpretation on his part of the overall situation with North Korea. Most give us presidents could have gotten a meeting with the leader of North Korea if they wanted, they just didn't want to 'cause. They didn't think it made sense, and so you had some Tillerson actually really leading the charge of saying we should be talking. We should be taking I'm much. Tone down approached versus Trump's, incredibly hot button tweets. So now you have Trump actually going with Tillerson's policy, and yet a he's taking credit for it is come from his own hardliner, coach and be he's putting a person in to help implement that policy who disagrees with with that approach in the first place. So is there any worldview

that acts as a through line to these last series of decisions we got rid of Gary Cohn. We now get rid of Rex. Tillerson is, trump Movin kind of away from the globalists is he moving? I don't think you can say that, because Pompey was you know of pocket she's, he wants a muscular american presence in the world. Which is you know, not necessarily in line with Trump. In some places it is like the IRAN deal, but in others it isn't, and you know when you talk about the people who are rumored to replace cone are seen as You know people pretty much within the same mold. I think that you know it could be an issue of trim I which issues he cares about more, but then again North Korea. It is the number one foreign policy issue right now and he just jettisoned Tillerson. I think the the common denominator is obviously a lot of different factors but teller, and n cone, where both people who very publicly disagreed an very impolite terms with

president, and I think that that you know it for any president. Really. You know you saw that when you had Stan Mcchrystal criticized Joe Biden he had to leave. Despite hang a very important role in the military at the time. So you have you sort of public shows of disrespect. That often is going to be. You know, resulting in somebody's removal end of the day. You know, I don't know I mean so, who They can be replaced with like Larry Kudlow. So you're certainly going to lower level of intellectual seriousness? I would say: I have some people kind of still in like the globalist mold, but the question is: is the talent level decreasing in terms of going from someone who has worked say what you want about like Goldman Sachs right, but has had one of the top jobs in his profession. As a you know, money making. Panama, Slash banker, to someone who is entertaining tv pundit, who used to be pretty

will that economics, but has not been actively using that in his day to day life for many decades right that to me indicates a little bit less seriousness and there are a variety of cabinet positions than a station secretary, for example, that Trump has not filled out with particularly serious people, and I feel like it, such as like a much and kind of talk like that now, but, like you know, these people have a lot of control over how the White House does and what sorts of public itself into an especially the higher profile positions. I mean it's always he's filled out. Some of these cabinet positions, like you, might an ambassadorship to a sort of I am considering now G, I mean you know when you give like he's, also done that too right, The president does that, but you know let you know Anna Wintour wanted to be. You know the ambassador to the? U K or you'll, give a good friend the french ambassador, ship and and in some ways that seems like what trump is kind of doing or they it's. The thought that goes into them seems not commence.

With the weight of these agencies, although on the other hand, just to give ms do people like Scott Pruett, you know at the epa- that's you know pointing Scott Pruett sends a very forceful message about the agenda of the Environmental Protection Agency. Obviously, not pro hey, but you know that some kind of intellectual play and the and the, and that I think it's a some of the forces that were there when he was first building out his cabinet that you had. The previous is pushing him in one direction then had inst his instincts and another in the question now is you know what forces remain and where will he end up so we've we've lost the thread a little bit on these on our structure of these questions that we're gonna ask I'll just say that the next two on our list was: is there a clear, clear reason for the departure of this person an? How senior is this person who's, leaving feel like we've kind of or does and ended up now at the fifth question which I think is where we should sort of land? What comes next? How does this purse? replaced in a little bit of what we were discussing. What is the kind of person who will replace these positions?

oh just nuts and bolts Hillary there's going to be confirmations now right, Ok, I was going to have to go through a confirmation hearing, but he was already confirmed in his previous role as CIA director so You know it in general, when you come from the hill you usually are going to get through. So it would be surprising if you ran into any major trouble. There might be some maneuvers from the Democrats to trying trouble in roblox more just to he was so just confirm, sixty six to thirty two billion in. Benchmark for is it. Or higher or lower. I assume it's going to be lower because sixty six involves a lot of democratic votes and I think Democrats will be unhappy about this never any Republicans defect that we interesting to watch? I kind of doubt it because I do think. Well, they're, certainly Republicans like Rand Paul, who don't necessarily agree with his foreign policy views, and you know the issues with say: a practices etcetera. I think that the

there again, there is a collegiality which really helps pompeyo he's, also just very popular within the republican Party. So you have to choose maybe your battles, and I think that we have another confirmation coming up in terms of the person who would replace him. Gina has spell and she, you know, has a lot of controversy. She was you know, implicated in some of the blacks, eight enhanced interrogation methods under the CIA in the past and there you have not only really strong opposition from Democrats, but somebody like Rand Paul, whose meat that are real because of his as well. So I think that strategically, that would be. You're much more likely. It's five thousand and fifty and in MIKE Pence votes only five thousand one hundred and forty nine the Senate. Now you only have two to spare by the way you've got some Democrats, like Dianne Feinstein, who says like who someone cornered her in the hallways this morning when they announced that Gina Haspel would be, is the nominee to be CIA director,

find scene. Wizard was critical of her way back in the early aughts. When she was, you know when it came out that she was in charge of a black site in Thailand, but this morning find scene says, but we've had a long personal talk about the Bush era. Programs every No is that she's been a good deputy director of the CIA, so I think in some ways some push back from maybe democratic base about about finding approach on this. But you know, I think, people in some ways just want to see the CIA go too and uh? political person. Pompeyo was seen his overtly political and there this is this. Is a CIA person? Let's put him in charge and kind of have the agency be quieter put her in charge, but hurry also going to be something. I think that yeah I'm going to want to help him with yeah, but I think I think the confirmation is will be a little bit. It's certainly going to teach young millennials about the Bush administration, but

I also think there might be some Democrats who Hillary's point go along with that collegiality point about. Well, let's just let's make this a little easier and push this all through. I mean Trump has of pushing extremely controversial nominees I mean. Puzder got kind of veto had to withdraw, but not because policy positions per say because of the yeah. You know it. Like sooner or later. No, they're unknowingly. If he's replacing five cabinet secretaries a year, that Trump is going to pick a fight with Congress. And that that's a moment where it isn't it up to Congress to pick a fight with Trump. Isn't it up to them to decide to make this a hard confirmation process? I don't think Trump has necessarily nominee that many people, for whom you'd expect are really difficult. Confirmation, I mean tell us, was one of the closer ones. Actually, he was like I'm looking at this now, fifty six that, but you If you had nominated some Rudy Giuliani, be the FBI director or something

like that right. If you at some point, has to replace Jeff sessions, if you at some point has replace Mattis. These are high stakes ones and again it looks like these two CIA and Pompeyo. I don't think they're going to really cause problems that we have to see which probably wait. Forty eight hours to see how Democrats react yeah, but several above us the device are diverse device, and that was the one that I think Democrats kind of chose as the one that they were going to really fly the flag with it. So I guess the question is: do they do that? Hillary did feel like they do that with either because he could he get divorced. I mean it was five thousand one hundred and fifty and that's when you had Luther ST in the Senate, not Doug Jones. So I'm sure that, or maybe, when you had sessions still on the order in which it went republican IBM in any in any event, I'm not sure that they would get that confirmed today, necessarily yeah. I agree that was very close and I think part of why that was close is because Democrats decided this was the person that they felt that they could potentially bring down.

And so I think with you know the sense that there's a lot of movement there's an opportunity, certainly for Democrats to say, wow this opening for us that, like basically Trump, creates a possibility for us to sow chaos, because now it has to come before the Senate for confirmation, but I still think that there's they want smart about who they're choosing to go after, and I think there's somebody again like Pompeii who's already been confirmed. It's pretty much a lost I that would almost fire on them, but I think that, as e continuing turnover and continuing our mission and there's certainly going to be. You know, as we get closer to the mid terms. There's there's a great you know political opening for Democrats to wreak some havoc, let

start to wrap. We did get a couple questions. I think of worth asking: does anyone want to say that this? What all affect today's vote in Pennsylvania, the Pennsylvania? Eighteen right now, my two beers, a little things? I don't like it it's it's! It's interesting that they announced teller since departure. He said the estate's interest, it's interesting, that the departure of teller sin without telling him in a very slapdash fashion on the day of the is Pennsylvania, eighteen special election, which, if you All our president is very invested in winning and it is not for sure that his republican candidate will win in Pennsylvania eighteen, so I'm going to put it out. There solution has neither p nor an a in it and has eighteen letters in his name, and if not, no Jody actually think this is a real thing. It's not! I think it's not just a conspiracy theory. I think it's. I think we should think about the timing of the roll out of this but isn't there always just to engage

Isn't there always some trump vs distraction whatever at any given moment that no matter what other piece of news you could pay them against each other in their office and are somehow considered there's a lot of aid, sure Are there a lot of the things that happen, but often- and I think I've said this consistently since the campaign things happen chaotically when Trump wants to distract from another thing happening: the the betting markets, and you go. Do you guys know that whenever The betting markets I often did so disparagingly Are you getting? Do it a lot? Well, you know it's data. Keyword content doing yes, kind of seems like you're, being empirical Perica when it's just a bunch of seventeen year olds in Scotland, or something getting with their parents money seventeen year olds had Conor Lambs chances increase from sixty four percent to seventy two percent. In the wake of the Tillerson NEWS, they're, making the same inference. That Claire is

which is like they. This may be a sign that they're like really worried, and it's certainly not like, like. I don't think, voters much, but it's really not a reason to vote for Republican right yeah. It's really not the headline you want. You know I mean it's just that if you know if it's just sort of tarnishes the Trump and the GOP brand in some way it's at the margins- and maybe that affects that is not really a scottish team that the it's not their pretty sure. It's bitcoin! That's the only thing. I one. Is there an based betting, and the answer that, as I'm sure, there is, but it's not get out- Sponsored this nor cats are free idea. Folks, you can take that one and just run we would take. We would take crypto

I just want the crypto companies know that I've got no problem with it. I have never I've never known when to end a podcast more than this podcast an right now. So we're done thanks through all of yours, always Hillary great job. First, ride It's been a pleasure Claire thanks as always thanks Joanne, thanks to you, Nate Silver, Thanks again for listening, we I think, will be around tomorrow in your feed with another podcast, I'm looking at the results of the Pennsylvania. Eighteen maple know a little bit more about that election fallout at that point anyway, thanks everyone for listening, my name is Jody Avirgan. Our producer is Galen Druken Toni Chau is in the control room will see you soon well find the tv guys. I know, what's going on here: