Our final part cast of the trunk president's there's an extra two. While we first of all of the driver, raspberries yeah, we'll be back here in twenty twenty five now I'm kidding, maybe I'm not, hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm doing group we were, for an ok day yesterday. I hope everyone had a good meeting for long began today. Is this I know full day of Donald Trump presidency. Its also almost five to the day that we began this podcast January. Twenty second, two thousand sixty and during that time we ve covered two presidential elections, a mid term cycle to engagements and countless scandals. It's been appeal. of Political news dominated by a single individual more than any,

I can remember, and tomorrow his term acts. So today. We're gonna reflect on terms presidency, how he changed politics and what lasting effects he'll have. to do that. We're gonna use the outline that need wrote back in two thousand seventeen two weeks after tromp was inaugurated, its fourteen versions of trends presidency from Hashtag Magua to impeachment, and at least the different paths, the last four years, might have taken one time listeners will remember that we ve reflected on these paths a few times during trumps time in office. So will look back at it now that it's all has Box leader in the shower, were also going to broaden out beyond that outline and talk about trumps legacy going forward, and you want me to do that is editor in Chief need, silver, Henny, Hagen,

happy birthday. By the way you were off last week for a pretty significant weak in the trunk presidency by. I hope you get some rest for your birthday. It did not feel like. I was, but a thank you also here with us. Managing editor Micro, Cohen, Humida Galen. Everybody also here with Us- is our colleague from ABC News: Whitehouse correspondent, Karen Travellers, hey Karen Tagging, thanks man. It's great to have you Karen and I have talked plenty on ABC News. Radio other does your first time on the package, so we really appreciated. Thank you and Perry is out today, so I'm going to kill us off by just quickly reading the fourteen paths that need laid out two weeks after trumps inauguration in two thousand. Seventeen and I'm curious to hear which are most reflective of what actually happened. And as I'm going, you guys can shout out and say, like let's go back to that one or like definitely or not at all, and then will dig

were into each of them. So the first Category called grit, one extrapolations from the status quo. the first one is trump keeps on trumpet and the country remains evenly divided too Trent, gradually or not so gradually enters a death spiral. Three trump keeps rewriting the political rules and gradually becomes more popular such group one, and that has to do with his approval rating and general group too, is trump changes, direction, so option for Trump Melos out slightly five Trump Seeds authority, six trumps successfully pivots to the pot. it was center, but with plenty of authoritarianism to seven trump flails around aimlessly, after an unsuccessful attempt to prevent so that kind of how to do with policy. Their group three are the three horsemen of the presidential, apocalypse, war, recession and scandal. So eight is troubles

soon by scandal. That seems self evident. Nine trump is undermine and by a failure to deliver jobs, ten crumbs law and order agenda is bolstered by an international incident or terrorist attack. Then group, for is things fall Art and eleven is Trump plunges Erica into outright authoritarianism. Twelve resistance to Trump from elsewhere in the government undermine his authority, but prompts a constitutional crisis and then the final group group, five is Trump, makes Amerika great again. So the two options here are: thirteen. Try. becomes Governor Schwarzenegger. Fourteen trumps button matching books, because the system really is broken so. There's a lot, there need kick us off reflecting all of these fourteen versions of what might have been, which do you think, is the most accurate now well, given that we had fourteen choices,

you would help that we have one that nail their thinking if he's dead. Frankly, I hope I mean look. There are three things that we can say. One is that I do think If you look at the events that happened in twenty seventeen and the most significant things and they were sniff, can things ever Charlottesville right? There was immigration policy, but things definitely did, I think, spiral more and more out of control in each year of the term, we wrote that peace it was about. A woman is due to trumps approval rate. kind of thinking more narrowly politically, but the fact that the truck presidency ends with a we pandemic gets killed, hundreds of thousands of Americans and where response been among the worst in the world and with an inch action at the capitol. I mean that certain fears things spiraled a bit and you know has like the highest disapproval rating of us if you are looking at the narrowly politically, they lost this race in Georgia.

which seems like ages ago that was two weeks ago, and so I was out of control theme- seems important and a negative. the because for years, the damn It builds fewer and fewer frankly insane and competent people are willing to work for a trump. There are fewer hole version, the previous. Restorations people grow fatigued that rings kind of true. I think and then cut of the ones about like the tension between plan. Into authoritarianism on the one hand, deep state resistance on the their hand, and this requires an assessment that I think is a little hard to make right now is how close to be get two things getting even worse. I think I should like the Capitol Hill MOB things could very easily have been much worse, where public officials were killed, minutes away from that happening, potentially how closely trumped come to kind of success. We're trying to steal an election

they get a lot more ambiguous, because people who are in a position of power and authority mostly avoided doing his bidding in fact almost uniformly avoiding doing his bidding but yeah I mean it feels, like things were, stretched to the brink here, don't care way injure you ve been covering this White House now for four years, like them or for it was in group to which was deadline Trump Melos out slightly, and I think that's an interesting point to look at as we close out the Trump administration, because there is so much talk going into January, twentieth. Twenty seventeen that war Clinton would change Donald Trump that you're here here and realise that, in order to get anything done, you have to work within the system and you didn't know this system. He prided him I'm being outside of this system and anyone to blow up the system. But the old people in Washington experienced people who put dismissed him during when fifteen and twenty sixteen were telling us yeah but

figure it out that, even if you wanna get legislation passed, you gotta, do it the certain way? If you want to have media coverage, you gotta do in a certain way never did anything except the way he wanted to do it. His style, never change, and I think what was so interesting see over four years with how Washington change around Donald Trump, that law make Republican, then Democrats adjusted to his style and his way of governing through tweets through rapid fire, q and age. He would do where he would announce policy in the middle of an answer to something and really be able to throw the shiny object over there and make everybody in Washington scramble. So much of this presidency was defined by his personality and that he governed by personality by sheer force, sometimes- and I think, that's interesting- to think about the idea that maybe he could have chain maybe he could have mellowed out of things warrant working to his benefit. He never did

There were so many times. We re told wealth. This time he's learned his lesson and this time healed changed the way he said that in this next press conference will be when he takes responsibility- and you know here, we are now that two weeks after the insurrection at the capital- which he did not take responsibility for show any remorse, for, I think that's a clear right. There underlined how you certainly do it the way everybody's telling them it has to be done. Maybe there if it will come. You know, after he's done that this presidency, you cigarette. Yes, the twenty four hours would appear that the answer that the press conference held due on the way out the door where he says you know you're right. I should have done it this way, and I really should have listened to my advisers and as an interesting thing too, that the big theme over the last four years has been. You know the number people who would tell us why I told him we should do it like this and we advised him to do this, but he blew up the playbook. He always did that

sure how much of a playbook there? Actually was because, if you work for Donald Trump, you went in knowing that handing him a playbook was not going to change his mind or change who he was waves or those debts like attention within these fourteen paths that I'm curious to hear what you all think about. So in group, one talking about the residents approval, mostly the politics. There are two possibilities that need describes. One is trunk, keeps on trumpet and the country remains evenly divided or Trump ground truly or not so gradually enters a death spiral which have I was too are more reflective of what actually happened, because to your point, Karen trumped just kept on trumpet but he's approval. Reading. We didn't change all that much so while it may seem like the poetic, establishment the administration around him? The events that the country was experiencing worrying I don't doubt spiral. Did the country just remain even we divided this whole time, yeah

said, one of the things that rings a little truer its tricky. I think one thing that that he's an appreciate enough, even though we often robot elsewhere is like the fact that you have these. Are there said European Electoral College in the sand. To some extent with gerrymandering in the house. That's important here because, like Trump is very popular he's, not catastrophically, and popular, but you can be pretty unpopular and kind of the country is an unevenly divided, more people in strong winds up an electoral system producing republican wins half the time or so took an important distinction. I would but you're obviously thing that looms over everything here is the very high degree of partisan even something as extreme as trump inciting. Direction at the capital that does have an effect, but it Jason from forty one percent to thirty Heaven or something it's not enormous.

is so partisanship. Is the overlaid to all of this on the fact that it took an answer, in it, the cap and to do that fight drop in them sometimes times over four years that we ve all analyze like will. This will be the thing that ends up dropping his approval rating even more, and this will be the thing that cause this massive exodus among his and die hard supporters are certainly Republicans on Capitol Hill. We never saw bad and in through controversy after controversy, it didn't happen, entailed final days of his presidency, even up until January Fifth, all of the repeated conspiracies and base was claims about a stolen election republican capital just kind of ignored it, if not agreeing with him, and he kept that hold on his face and his supporters general sick, think changes everything. If you can talk about a deaf spiral, it wasn't gradually, it happened in the last fourteen days

any even then re, most Republicans on Capitol Hill stuck by him right. still voted to reject the certification of the election results and to proliferate in has fallen, but you know it hasn't bottomed out in the way that mix instead, for example, I mean that that is a disconnect. A little bit of most of these are true, but there's a disconnect, which is, I think, what you are I gave him between, I think the politics which are which I couldn't dream, bi partisanship and the act world which in many ways the more stream scenarios here, where Trump does a ton of damage and which suffer, I think, would have been hard to imagine at least specifically like an insurrection of capital, the Extreme scenarios, in terms real world I think cap end. They just didn't produce the proportional response. In terms of tax right now. I do want to be a little careful there, because I

The political system is still respond. if enough that Trump soundly defeated by it's just not that responsive Horace, responsive ass. It used to be because of these kind of systemic structures that favour Trump and Republicans fruit. Does that get at path, three, which is Trump, keeps rewriting the political rules and gradually becomes more popular. So, of course he didn't gradually become more popular, but did he you re right, the political rules or his deeds sui generis, like one, is out of office. The same rules apply issues that tromp was such an anomaly that he could act very very differently from other presidents, but not and I would like a twenty five percent approve. A rating like Bush did at the end of his president, and if you read this path in its peace, a lot of it gets at overturn window shifting, which is that, like he, fifthly, overturn windows so much in his direction that things that might have seemed of its extreme once upon a time no water seem extreme. I don't think

Trumpery wrote role steady. What role did he right? I think we learn things through the town, error about the way politics works. You know I think, and the republican primary and twenty sixteen, for example, maybe we'll get into this more later, but We learned, or I learned that actually fidelity. Too conservative policy doesnt matter much to most republican voters and in that region animals, but we knew was an animated factor, was the much bigger automating factor in republican primaries and am Republican Party and then I think we learned in during the Trump his actual in office, that racial anonymous that part of things plus pardon since ship also more of an animated force. Then like fidelity to small de dammit, values and to those norm so like, I think, trump more staff clearly the things that were already true, but I dont think

worry, wrote any rules did he became this for himself. I dont think for politics in general. I think one thing that's interesting is that you look at the background. The Donald Trump came to Washington He was a real estate mogul. He was it created personality, the tv personality that people came to know and that is so unique from all the other people in Washington who are trying to be like Donald Trump. You know we watched so many republican lawmakers try to follow that Trump model and tweet, something outrageous or given insult, ignore, remarked Rubio, trying that during the republican, primary and twenty fifteen- and it just doesn't work for anybody else and once he leave town, it's going to be interesting to see how many of them still tried to find in themselves as the heir to the Trump, quarters and the mega legacy, because I can't do it just like Donald Trump did it because of just who he was and how he created this personality cult of personality round himself. I think it's

to be interesting now to see who tries to out Trump Trump once he's gone, and I don't think anybody can come close to doing that. So if he rewrote any rules, he's going to be able to stick to them are followed them. They were rules he made for himself in OECD rewrote the payment for himself when he came in to Washington yeah and to add to that, actually we ve seen both national pulling and pulling of Republicans in particular, come out after January, sex on Josh, Holly and tied crew, and their deadly, not popular with Americans but they're, not even particularly popular with Republicans and so to your point. The people who have fashion to them was a little bit as the air to trumps supporters. Dont really seem to be all that Obviously, because while they may have taken notes on the anti democratic ways, tromp or the rashness they aren't Donald trump himself, I'm here and how are you thinking about the extent to which Trump did or did not revision, the rules

I think he tried it and the rules prove pretty robust in terms of like he lost badly at the twenty eighth eighteen mid term too low and a seat in the Senate that the house was a pretty devastating result for tramp and he lost reelection, which is unusual for an elected incumbent present till his re election, so there were prices to pay, did read the rules of winning primaries. I think as a question one can ask but give Joe Biden four years later. The next data that we have won the primary and election kind of a very traditional in some sense way where he built a coalition got a lot of support from the Party Sable Schmidt built momentum after Iowa I guess arrive, inclined to view trim. nomination as less of a fluke, then I think I did four years ago that the things he represents are more fundamental to the republican Party. Then I thought at the time, including authority.

it is fitting light supremacy, including violent traditions within populism. If you want to call it that same time. If you look back on fire, years ago. Now I guess trump so towards a lot of people into thinking, he was kind of liquid moderate northeastern deal maker that was brash, and bold and little impulsive, but they are we said, we want terminate Trump and not take crews because take This is too conservative Emily scare off independent voters, but they're like Trump, I mean it The only thing we're saying, but it was kind of complicated and drove back like an entertainer and stuff like that, too, are the political rules different for the two parties in the sense that Democrats do seem very focused

on campaigning to the median voter and that's how they were successful. But president Tromp was always focused on his face. He was focused on his base in the primary he was focused on his base, largely in the general election in two thousand sixteen, and for most of his presidency. Can Democrats do the same and still win elections. Or is this a rule that kind of applies mortal Republicans? I think it applies mortar Republicans, just because of the structure all advantages they have, I mean Republican has won the popular vote for the presidency. What one time in the last twenty something years. So between the Electoral College and the Senate, there are structural forces that skew the popular will in the favour of the Republican Party, which The plough the Republican Party to win elections with mine. Already support with forty five percent of the vote, or something like that now

as we saw with Trump, they can't win it with forty percent or closer to that. But I do think Democrats just frankly because the voters are more in a gently distributed throughout the country, because efforts by Republicans to suppress the I dont think Democrats can do that base play as easily, as Republicans can be cut up that different, also just like the Republican Party, has shown a nihilist extreme that we haven't seen from the Democratic Party at a much earlier given the opportunity more Democrats would show that street, but we ve seen a concentrated predominantly in one parties of our so it's two questions? It? Can you get away with like not playing by roar and are you willing to not play by rule yeah me. I still think that Trump wasn't

serve well by this instinct to always played his base. I think there are many cases where Trump winds reelection coming back to the past, even with the covert pandemic and stuff like that I think the fact that you can do ok with just your base. You can win certainly Senate seeds and lots of red states which are a lot of states. You can keep your providing a forty percent. Consider following two twenty or something fact that you can kind of limp along and you have this high floor may have made it a more appealing prospects in the fact that Haiti Although the base push us a little bit of the swing voters, we don't know independence by seventeen point when I read it Joe Biden in the example. then you could have had a second term. So I think that in sync did not serve him well, and there is going to like it MR lessening the GNP primary we're in what are we raised and having forty percent huge two way race. Forty percent will even with electric, our get you kicked out of office. This might answer

of that Galen, but to kind of bring it to the real world of what was happening at the White House who one of the biggest jobs in Washington and lame joke, but was infrastructure week. You know every week within me infrastructure weak, and this is the weak- that they're gonna talk about nuts and bolts things in getting dollars out. Two cities and states- and you know, hiring people to get to work and in it never happened, but became kind of emblematic of the larger. I think a big failure of the Trump Administration, the White House will say specifically the White House team, nor the President self one. To win reelection by keeping every single vote from two thousand sixteen and figure out a way to depress turn out on the other side or run against somebody like Bernie Sanders and that that would keep people home and that you just wanted to keep the same place as twenty sixteen and obviously you can't do that with how things ended up in twenty twenty. But if you look at what they it over the four years there were so many missed opportunities where they would

actually have something that they could town, and this is one example we would always come back to. There was a bill that billions of dollars that Congress renewed the president's sign that was gonna, give money to do job train program. So you know if you were a carpenter, you go and get some of these grant money and take some courses and learn a new skill set and evocative was really heavily involved in, as she did a couple of events where she was telling this out on the road. She didn't event the week before the President signed it with him, and he was kind of joking that maybe he would veto at that kind of ridding her a little bit and she was can veto this winter worked so hard on this, he ended up signing it behind closed doors. We didn't see there is now a band, they didn't do any roll out for it. You know a minor thing in the grand scheme of all of the controversy in chaos or the Trump administration, but that to us right. There was an example of when they had something good to town that maybe would have somebody out there at the suburban woman whose ears, like I hate the tweets. I hate everything in the firing and all this that

It's a lot of mileage on local news that gets mileage in local papers and indeed ever took advantages from the things that they could do like that. That might have helped him expand the little bit beyond that base, and then some of that gives back to what I was saying earlier. You know they would write a playbook for women and he would toss it. Instead, it just sort of force the cover all of the controversy. because that's what use twinning all day to what extent it actually passed the policies that he talk so much about in two thousand sixteen during his term so path, seven is trump fails around aimlessly after an unsuccessful attempt to pervert. Now, of course, he didn't attempt a pivot, but how much his agenda. Did he actually achieve verses? This kind of whaling around aimlessly that you describe like when it comes to the when it comes to immigration. When it comes to trade or shoring things like that. Did he get accomplished in the things that you said he would in two thousand sixteen,

I mean the big items repealing replacing Obamacare no Mexico paying for the wall. No, but you know the things that they will say or their biggest achievements. The tax cuts bill, the tax thrilling twenty seventeen, the trade deal, but they did the new NAFTA with Canada and Mexico, and criminal justice reform, those weren't the biggest thing that he talked about on the campaign trail for sure, but those are the things that they could point to as successes. So many of the things that you could say when there was a success in terms of some trade deals, he's aren't a trade war with China, you know, and then there were all these other things. That would happen that would negate or dilute what you could tell as an actual accomplishment, we ve been so many these legacy pieces over the past couple of weeks and you go through your outlining realise bow. So much of this is controversy. Let's get back into the actual stuff that was happening upon Capitol Hill. You know Congress for those pursue years and really I think they didn't come away with enough that they can say we took a good.

image of having that Republican, controlled, Whitehouse and Senate and House actually something to show for it from political sign of all of this. There is a lot of the lake culture, wars and campaigning constantly on twitter, and things like that? That Trump did And then there is, the actual policy need I got car industry situation in which there were some training programmes. The trunk could have talked a lot more do Americans Carol, about the nuts and bolts of policy in job programme, and things like that, or are they more motivated by the culture wars I think is? the culture wars I mean I was just thinking about this of like ok, what was the Trump administration most successful enduring unlike can you could say remake, the federal judiciary. There was a big one, but be their biggest success quote. Unquote was, from their point of view, the mainstreaming of this white identity politics right? That's the

yes through line in all of trumps actions and statements and tweets and policies this white grievance white identity, politics and, and it's why the the storming of the capital felt so much like inevitable combination as shocking. As a word so the mainstreaming of that is me maybe the most lasting legacy. Why why How about a success, because I that's what they were trying to do. Perry write a piece for the site, some team up to Charlottesville. That was about this white identity politics in the kind of putting these groups white people, more religious people, People who historically have had every antigen this country and trying to flip it and say no. This is now the marginalized part of America. These are the victims. I think Understanding the Trump administration through that lends its like that

the unified theory of the Trump Administration if you're, trying to make sense of like wise, trumpet menstruation doing any particular thing on any particular day other there's a lot of days. We just I got it. I have no idea, but the best Mary, is, I think this white supremacy white identity politics. It fits so much of what happened yeah me too, and there is also some reporting that Trump, where much we events unfold, then one six assertive please with what he was saying. We're gonna did where you encourage them to do so. Why wouldn't may be pleased? I suppose I mean how much you guys feel like that, one six we'll be kind of various Andrew trims legacy because it so recent is at dominating our thinking or will that be kind of one of the immediate things I always think of anything about tramp.

One of the more immediate things. I think it's? U notes, a final act on the way out the door and that's what people remember. You know it's hard to remember those seventeenth play at the second quarter, but everybody remembers: dropping bombs, Enzo where's, the buzzer goes out. You know it's, so I think this he's going to absolutely define so much presidency have not his entire legacy, and you know we look back at his inaugural, listen speech in that year about the end of american carnage in just the striking book end to how then Ministration ends at the exact same location where he said those words to you know, and I think, we get further away from a two year even just day by day, were learning so much more about what happened and Americans minds are. Very memories are short lives ivory warning for ABC Radio. I talked to stations all across. The country has been three hours just talking to anchors and taking questions and

it's amazing how, over the last four years, something that is a massive controversy on Monday is not even on the radar by Wednesday. It's completely forgotten by Friday, because we ve already had ten more controversies, but this one is going to stick. This is different because of the president's own role. In what happened had he not done the rally? If if people were just coming to Washington on their own, that's different, but he was so intricately involved in what happened? it's also notable, I will not take credit for thinking. There's a smart republic- and I was talking to last week, was saying so imagine what could have been after November. Third, if the president, except the reality that he did not win the election, which had been clear to all of us and people around him and most of the country from November forth. On that, if you acknowledge that and moved on and tried to use that lame duck period to cram through some last minute things that he could do and tried to

focus on a reflection back on the last four years. Not that would require him to be completely different than he had been from the previous for years, but you know, maybe they wouldn't have also Georgia Senate raises. Maybe they could have kept the majority in the Senate in so many things. That of indifferent. Had the president not chosen to take the plan which you ve been laying the breadcrumbs for four months, up to November. Third, that he was never going to accept the election results him and would challenge it and and deny Joe Biden legitimacy by talk about amiss. Opportunity than culminates in what happened on January six, anything for so many people that bitter taste in the mouth. Even people voted for him. That's going to linger, announced reporting to remember you you gotta go off and said. Well, you know I came so first, when I again it's all the father, China virus, not my term. Obviously, and of course there really can mildly complain about. Of course, there's These votes are suspicious, but I must accept the result you can kind of go out, probably at least to his bays claim to have been a success.

But again I mean look Trump is not a great strategic mine, a friend and calculated reptilian intelligence. We're, like you kind of perceived threats and react to them. but there's no real long term strategy for how his life is gonna be, outside the White House. I mean look more things it's about like it's very difficult about processing like recent advances. On the one hand, well, I hate like worse than we thought Gazette getting a lot of questions about, like kind of what did we think are what should we have thought? Like other? Wouldn't you these very disturbing events that reveal that thing you like this are possible in the United States, which may in my privilege, whoever you don't think about it now. On the other hand, the fact associated with this guy who's, a loser and the fact that they play out this way. I think the fact that the Capitol Hill Riot occurs we'll make at the margin elected officials a little the less likely to

deny the reality of election results. I think also be plenty of it, but I think you know having your tie in them The gnp to this can turn violent saw, also get lots of it. We might use have dynamite less than before. So I think we can maybe put aside, The final category in the past that you wait out need, which is the Trump becomes Governor Schwarzenegger, or that the button matching works, because the country really broken by the category right before that is that Trump plunges the country into array, authoritarianism and then path, twelve, that there is a constitutional crisis. So we talk a little bit about while he may have desired more authoritarian, like outcome, that there were state level Republicans and even Republicans in Congress and my pants himself, who prevented that from happening. The courts of course as well ultimately did we end up facing a constitutional crisis during the Trump presidency,

the second branch of government. inciting an attack on the first brand count as a constitutional crisis, not great it's like it's a crisis is a constitutional yeah. I thought like a question and that the constitution can resolve. It certainly felt We many crises he's during the Trump Administration where like there was no remedy to it, Julia sorry right, a great piece for us that, like the different types of constitutional crisis, you can have an one is like that prostitution just doesn't say what to do and say there is a crisis of like a. We don't know how to handle this right. The other that there is a constitution remedy, but that is not the political will to use it and that one I think it felt like there were a lot

moments during the Trump Administration, where we had a constitutional crisis in that sense that there was just not the political will to follow the constitution like Watson, ample trump openly tried to get a far a nation to interfere in the. U S, selection president Trump openly pressured and threatened a state official Georgia churches state officials to help him return as a timid election. I not even getting into like the emoluments Stafford, the personal enrichment stuff, further corruption stuff, all of which is very serious and very well documented. But that's the conversation we should be having right aside and that we have had but like what do you do when one party isn't acting in good faith and what happens in and represent are not very popular they're. Not that simple pillar, but there certainly far far from it,

a of majority view, unlike but missed the majority doesnt really have the sort of power it might want to have and that underscores alot of this. I think I'm certainly oppian about like how robust, like american constitutional democracy something that has to have forgotten over the past four years. What happens in four years? We have a tempest as a jury, The secretary of state and skin, doesn't hurt five years old said you probably go to the court. I think it probably still runs up with Abiden present see, but I don't know Cowan you're there thou for do you think of this. Having one thing you would hear from Republicans who are very concerned about plunging into a constitutional crisis. It's kind of a bit of a gallows humour that if they were better at that then, maybe we would have fallen off that cliff, but that the Trump Administration, the president is neat, was saying not a great strategist. When it comes to some of us the path

the text and the people around him fumbling on some of the big things I mean remember one of the first big controversies of the drug administration was the Muslim Ban and how badly they ruled that out. having to go back and tweak it to get it to be where they wanted it to be and actually be allowed to move forward, and so much of those because they just rushed it together. That day, not talking to agencies now. They figured out to actually implement what they were about to do and that there was, I think you take on smaller and bigger scales over the course of four years, were so many things that they did that work. Probably the Republicans that were worrisome on the constitutional question to Democrats, the reaction we would get from talking to people was will. Thank goodness I dont know what they're doing, because this would be way worse if they came in very skilled at this and had a very detailed plan to push the country towards bad so or by the grace of God, I guess interested, I think I've heard our kind of jealous. You were alive

which is that like, if you had somebody with authoritarian tendencies, who was less inapt like they actually could have succeeded, and so I guess that's something too even by going forward as we cover politics, I wanna get off these fourteen paths and just broaden the conversation a little bit too. What terms lasting legacy will be, but first today's cast- is brought you by another five, thirty, eight podcast hot takedown, each Tuesday. Five. Thirty, eight sports, podcast hot, take down where the hot takes up the sports world meet the nuts That proved them right or tear them down the crew digs two fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the analytics behind the issue. They end We show by diving into a rabbit whole data from the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end. H out, don't mess hot takedown available. Every Tuesday, wherever you find, your pot casts today's pocket

is brought to you by the Pied Cast series in plain sight, Ladybird Johnson, this These were tumultuous time in the United States, the Vietnam WAR, the fight for civil rights, the assassination of three prominent leaders through it all there's one woman who had a front row, seat history and left us her expense in a collection of audio diaries that one is Ladybird Johnson, the former lady and wife of President Lyndon be Johnson. Leaderboard Johnson were quartered her thoughts from November nineteen sixty three to the getting of nineteen sixty nine. It started with if case assassination, spanned the Vietnam WAR and the fight for civil rights and end, with the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr and Robert Kennedy find out hers out of the story on in plain sight, Ladybird John

available now on Apple podcast Spotify and your favorite podcast app show setting aside these fourteen paths because back in January, two thousand seventeen there are a lot of things that need could not have predicted the covert nineteen pandemic and other aspects of trumps presidency, and now that All, but one day of it is behind us. I just wanna, ask broadly what you believe. Trumps legacy will be going forward, how that impacts, the Republican Party, our politics, more broadly, our history books, caring, let's begin with you, what is legacy- I mean I think we talked about this earlier- of rethinking of it too much as to what just immediately happen, but I think the covert pandemic and the poor to overturn the election results will be the two things that define the term presidency, because, underneath that you can get out every other aspect of how

governed what they decided to do his personality in office. The code pandemic, the failure of the president to acknowledge the seriousness of it. flat out, lie to the american people and downplay how bad it was and what would happen. You know, which we heard later in audio, where you didn't interviewed Bob Woodward and in admitting why he was doing that. This does not scare people that he had to be positive. I think that will be very telling about his approach to so many issues over the course of four years, and then I think the fact of not concede in the election, not just not conceding but pushing to turn the results by pushing just baseless claims flat out falsehoods that were EAST in dark corners of the internet. But then you know went mainstream through his pushing of them and him his tens of millions of supporters to believe it. What you see in the policy of how many people don't believe

Joe Biden legitimate President. I think those two big crises and what the president, to write the fire and fuel the flames for both of them. I think, will be the defining they will look back at you just want to know. Words to define the legacy. I think it will be divisive unkind, national chaotic by his supporters, stayed with him through all of that, and that is also an incredible legacy. He likes to say any more than seventy million votes, and that is nothing to scarf add. Despite everything we ve laid out of whatever Over the last four years, he did get that number, he bore stricken by him you have it I would point out a few things and I think part of what I've been wrestling with his like and all these things trump is both days dumb, and cause and then accelerant but one legacy, I think, will just be. The liar asked and was saying from the start of his campaign to his

stay in office on Wednesday, mt of lying what's stunning, and it was one of the most consistent on ending. features of trumps presidency and also some combination of like the suppose, you're of how fragile our democracy was. So that's that's like more so there are many just exposed it, but then also he help made it more fragile by pending these norms and chipping away at democracy and then go to what we were talking about earlier for some people exposure and then the mainstreaming of this white grievance white supremacy? Why identity politics slash right wing extremism? I think those three things are:

play. What I'd point do I think, but the presidency is just ending, so it's it's kind of hard to say if you consider legacy from your the Republican Party and you're thinking about something like a cd going forward and how it applies to the Republican Party, you see that Trump one hundred and seventy four million votes he had like incredible out for Republicans? Do you say like let's pick and choose what we want from there? Also, on top of that, you use He won the most diverse coalition for Republicans putting voters of color in his coalition in decades So do you look about in and certain things that trump dead that we need to replicate going forward or do you like it? I didn't say that we really need to topple arouses start over with something completely new I mean

I put it this way, I dont think if you talk to the very concerned, Republicans from their point of view, the parts of the trunk presidency that day hated the most, I can t think those are not incidental to de benefits again from their point of view of trump, so trumps, strong man tendencies his right. Just read. Redirect I dont think you can view those things has just psych incidental to the fervor of his following and support right. I think those two things are connected. I'm not so sure, if you're, a republican politician who wants to move on from Trump that you're going have a super easy time getting a scalpel. Kind of carving out the parts of of the Trump legacy that you don't like, I think, gets all one big inter connected yeah! That's why I'd do you get in here

There's a lot about like you, I would have trip were slightly more competent right. We can talk about here but like. I think you can't just change one part without changing the whole. It's like that when I called it would have staff curry were six feet. Nine argument right. Maybe different player and maybe less skilled and certain important in any event, he's already condemned like good Genetic five, sigma freak with is tat. This work ethic and wherever else, and so you know most block ever become president and I think imitators may wind up with the cap, hearts have dropped like european racism, for example, but not like the talent and feed we are to use that word that, like Tromp has a certain type of talent is, among other things, entertaining Josh Holly is not Tom. Cotton certainly is not. I don't think you're going to travel

outside state lines to hear those guys gave a one hour speak which made me no matter the end but like when questions. What there's like a Mitt Romney early summer you kind of do any LISA at one point out that leaving their working party with and make clear that would mean should become a democratic, not quite sure what that means exactly, but light Do we see some type of capital, the conservative party form in the U S. Do we see? people, burnings independence. Those seem like salient questions that will sort out and will be important in TWAIN. Twenty two, I didn't twitter did Republicans a big big favor in the last couple of days by banning the president from social media, their platform, because when he left Washington. Let's just go back to a January fourth world, where the idea of president from moving to Florida twin But the idea of running for real action being all of the republican hopefuls. The contenders for twenty twenty four essentially held hostage as he considered run, even if he never does, but just teasing that for two plus year,

and doing on twitter and sending little jobs, are Josh, Holly and jobs at TED crews, maybe even like Ben too, but he can't do that now, the other thing that Republicans hated so much over the last four years, was being a cost it in the hallway up at the capitol being ass. You did you see the tweet. What does your reaction to the tweet and they just trying to figure out how to ignore it, to pretend they never read the tweet or China to comment on it can be a lot easier. For them to have that albatross of Trump Twitter taken off their necks because his ability to lie grenades from moral logo and play a wound in puppet master. A bit with the republican lawmakers, presidential contenders is now severely limited year is going to have an event to do that. He's gonna

issue: a statement overt you mail, which, my god that so boring, that's, not titled Trump, and so I think twitter help them all out of big deal because they can say we're moving on and we don't have to look around. That, like the monster, is coming back around the corner he's gone, he's not gonna, be tweeting, so it's a good thing for Republicans you're right care, because I like I was a thing somebody make this point somewhere else. So it's not my my point but after that twenty of election. Remember there is like Romney law so like this republican autopsy and their results this kind of self reflection about what we the change as a party to win elections. Again, none of that actually happened, like none of the steps recommended in that brief actually were taken, I dont think are not meaningfully. I think part of the party took them seriously, but there were just enough people at enough very enthusiastic campaigners that to the people who shopping primaries,

They re really cared about the autopsy they're, not fair enough, but Udall see any self for, she's right now. Do you yeah you do where it's mostly people who want to enhance their careers prose tromp, like maybe worked in the trunk presidency and our and are now talking about how they see the GNP charting a path forward like I was a far and people like that. Doing that kind of self reflection, it maybe self serving self reflection, but There are republicans talking about what we need to do going forward. Yeah, I'm talking about my party apparatus, parts of the party officially being like what do we do here and I don't think there's that yeah maybe it'll happen. I be surprised, railings currency, just reelected, Renault Mcdaniel rewrite keeping on the same page, will you use that Galen? You know about the diverse coalition that from put together another point of light. Imagine if you talked about that for the last two months. Instead of talking about his conspiracy theories imagined he was highlighting the game

they made among certain voting groups and easier to use that to propel them forward to twenty twenty four. That would help the Republican Party, but that doesn't help Donald Trump so that zero. We don't see him saying that this is maybe a little bit of apparent from where

Ben, but I think it's really important in thinking about Donald Trump impact. On our politics and where we go from here is tomorrow, Joe Biden will take office and wild trump certainly reshaped republican party. He reshape the Democratic Party to just very much in the reactions to him as a person, the kinds of policies- united, I'm just one pulling examples. You see that once Donald Trump entered the public's fears started running for office Democrats views on immigration change dramatically, so they were much more in favour of immigration, much more likely to say that immigrants helped the country than they were before. Trump became political figure. What are the other ways that Trump has shaped the Democratic Party during the past four or five years?

I think he's made it more of the party of professionals, certainly less of the white Working class and maybe at the margins, so overwhelmingly party of the back and aesthetic donation working class, but maybe a bit less than at least four years ago in a second biggest kind of demographic shift. In the trunk era, is much higher correlation between education levels and party affiliation which is also related. urbanization wealthy, well, educated people in city, these are much more likely be democratic than they were eight years ago. Rural white people are much less likely to be, and this keeps getting more extreme in every election and they have the graduates with the democratic agenda. Is immunity? Look in some ways: hypocrites, commanded, twenty to twenty, looking fellow good they had this relatively

smooth nomination process once it was all said and done work Joe Biden wound up winning by a pretty comfortable margin and he went under the presidency and they went on to just barely capture the Senate so in that I was in the house, the market, whereas because people thought so now, I think the events of the past few weeks I don't get any longer looks like a democratically nearly came up sure the underperform, the points, right I mean I'm not going to feels like disparities but they gonna, held there together in historically, aging times, and maybe you shouldn't take very much of that for granted us again with the Winston, Georgia is a lot easier to put an optimist, expand on how to them pray, pray, didn't twenty twenty, but, in short, is very meaningful. Maybe some plus stock well about Donald Trump, shameful democratic part, is that he gave them Donald Trump to rally around and that kept the party together because they this one thing that they all agreed on there are a lot of things the Democrats do now

agree on, and some of those big big differences between Alexandria, Cassio Cortez in her wing of the party and moderate wing and you can He bore over a lot of that because you have to focus on getting Donald Trump out of office and winning and twenty twenty and in trying to expand majority, which of course, we did not see happen, and I think when you, Hague Donald Trump out of the equation. Some of those issues. Had been bubbling below the surface for Democrats on Capitol Hill. I am talking specifically about the lawmakers here that had been just pushed aside. they're, gonna come roaring back and then they could potentially bubble over and Nancy Policy has a very small majority right now. You of course, of the fifty fifty slit in the Senate once the to Georgia centres are seated, so it's gonna be tight unit. can start angering even small factions of your caucus right now or else you're not gonna, get anything done and then have to figure out how to thread those needles and when you don't Donald Trump as you're bogeyman to blur

Everything on you gotta work harder than to keep everything together on your own team, I think that a really good point is, I think, one way in which Trump changed the Democratic Party is he, I think, for a lot the Democrats lower their tolerance for a political caution, and I thank you during the Trump our allotted Democrats say we can't be timid, anymore arrived and had often criticized their own party for like being banned. politics not being more trump? Yes Nobody like nothing more hope. You are just like not being as ruthless as republican party. That's like a self flattering Chris he can some way right if you're a Democrat, but I Thank you saw in a lot of parts of the party more boldness during the Trump era. The current point, though, not it

Parts of the party and now they're gonna have a moment where they have to kind a square that circle. So we ve been talking over the past five years and over the past ten years kind of five years beyond that, we ve seen very similar trends, the ones that need just described, witches, professional white voters of color and then rule whites and on college educated white. Those two groups like separating off and creating different coalitions, that of reshape the suburbs and reshape the cities and rural areas and reshape the parties. As a result. Do you think we're at the apex point of that trend or Do you think that that is something that just continues on from here? I guess I'll put it my my usual vote for meaner version, one read- and we did have mean reversion among non white voters. You know I think Democrats might be concerned a battle again, Georgia run ass. They got both very good turn out. Very high Berkshires chairs from non white voters in Georgia.

So maybe there are people of already soup will turn out Progress is a phenomenon that won't turn out for an ordinary public and in the mid terms I mean look. I think one thing too is one two January six. Is there it's gonna make. I think, Democrats and what an independence there, Scared of republican rule for alone period of time and fear often motivator to get people to vote and if on the right wing, you kind of c p old, downplaying the significance of January, six and downplays significance of trumps, claims about election fraud. Let me cite the midterm right. I can see the trap presidency having some permanent effects of making democratic turn out and locomotion. patient, whereas it may be more of a mixed bag for public participation it from himself on the ballot

does the disagreeable maids, Gunnar Gonna, go with me version. I well guess that the trend continues and that we see we see that education split becoming even more pronounced, but that's just the gas, as I said my take would be that the suburban parts of the country remain pretty politically competitive and that it seems quite likely that corner for accesses of the Democratic Party could push those voters back the republican Party? So I guess I may also beyond. In the mean reversion crowd. Also people keep saying that voters have short memories. I don't have that just like a saying now or if it's actually true but I wonder after January, sex like how short term our voters memories. I guess that's to be determined unless either of you have I mean, I do think that, like the one your journal embassy pull ass people. How do you rate one six in the kind of

story, a legacy where's rank and is it like an all time, historic event, the United States? Is it pretty important, super important. Is it not that important? They also that question after September eleventh and after the start of the corona virus pandemic, so to speak in March, a really started last December. If people rate it as being much less significant in those events and that might separate out the kind of police what class from regular people on the street like it, I walked around. New York City about trying to collect my thoughts on January six and they weren't, like they weren't like it. People like talking on the street there were some, but it wasn't like September eleventh when, like every was only thinking about further because, like part, The story of one six is what almost happen but didn't happen if MIKE pants or other elected officials have been harmed or killed, then

think every American. We think this is a nine eleven style of air and we as journalists reed other reporters We know how closed I could have been too happening. But we narrowly avoided a much bigger disaster, so I don't know. Well, let's leave things there. Our final podcast of the Trump presidency, the nurse trial you still get one more first turn out there on president will be back here in twenty twenty five. Now I'm kidding, maybe I'm not but The next time you will hear from us will be tomorrow after inauguration will have a reaction, podcast walls my blood on five, thirty, eight dot com, but that's it for now. So thank you need Mica and Karen. Thank you My name is Galen droop. Twenty chow is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing and get in touch. My emailing us at podcast, at five thirty dot com. You can also, of course,

thus, with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a reading or review in the apple pie, cast store or tells about us thanks for listening and will cease.