Who hello and welcome to this New Hampshire Primary Reaction Edition of the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop, and we actually have results for you guys tonight. The networks have called the race for Bernie Sanders and as of recording this podcast, it looks like Bernie Sanders. Has twenty six percent Buddha Judge has twenty four percent closure has twenty percent then there is a significant drop off with war in coming in at nine percent and Biden coming in at eight percent. So let's talk about those results. What or to those results, and also what they mean going forward here with me to do that. Our editor in chief need silver. Has it go on? Go on great, I'm happy that we're actually here at midnight and not at three m me too, and also here thus is senior politics. Writer clamour loan harry you I'm taking coming back from the Buddha Judge round.

How is that? You know after a couple hundred people, Stew and Jim for four hours it takes on a certain smell, but it was good to see you kind of analysis that you don't get from watching tv trade also Thus is elections analysed Jeffrey Scully how're you doing great garrison results. We can talk about something tat. We actually have data this time job. I know that you ve been looking into the exit polls all night looking at the cross tabs and just trends across the state so described the picture for us, but where did Club Bashar get her support from? Where did Buddha Judge get his support from and then ultimately brought Sanders across the finish line well, having earn their nevertheless ago intervene. I think you know where the source of the night is the club a charge for for using doesn't make a medical sense, but Corbett Surge Club recharge, pick your korea wiser than make grammatical since it's it's coming sure

every well obviously, dinosaurs, I would say the soup eyes of the night, or maybe it was not surprising. Given the trend we saw Pull numbers, but obviously she outperformed her poles much more than anyone else did, so far. Then she she did farewell. Moderates, she actually one among college. Voters, including college educated women, which might help explain why was with warned and do so well. Those are some examples, but Judge also did very well against. Among moderate voters also, like high income voters and wait. Designers closer actually did very also- and people said, the debate matters which may be so Something that I want to debate will not. I know like I was saying on the post of pod costs that debates don't matter so we'll have to get back in touch with him when we're back in New York, but one final thing to the point about Sanders: where was his support?

coming from. Obviously, the stereotype is younger voters and more progressive voters. Does that the holder, yes, he deftly one among young voters, hours closer one among old voters, but among people who were locked in before last Today's centres did very well my one among those voters, one among a liberal voters. They were all in on him pretty much, and so that's how he ends up with this narrow plurality. In the end, if you know you're for Sanders, then you're stuck with centres. Sir Clare, you were out the Buddha Judge Rally covering his. I guess it seemed like somewhat of a victorious speech, even if he came in second, what we're people talking about the room, what was the the mood. Why you get these things it? I was split between what the voters are talking about, what the people on the press, risers you're talking about, and voters are certainly in. I kind of made a point to ask Buddha Judge support new Hampshire. Very white state in the crowds night was very white.

How do you see his path forward after the state right? Does? He have have any sort of viability, and so you know This discussion there of, if he's a winner as he's sort of proving tonight, you know he can win and other states. The press corps was pretty interested in keeping a close eye on how close the Buddha Judge Sanders more and was, and in the end I think it's going to be very, very close, wrapped under two points: exactly so so that was kind of the mood in the room was just a curiosity about how close it was actually going to be. I think you saw Sanderson booted you're playing a little chicken with cable tv air time trying to see who could get your speech on the air at the? U, no glass A final word about the whole night, but I would say that the Buddha Judge gave a speech that was certainly victorious. I thank you actually you know

kind of a reserved, Canada, Conover Reserve person, and I think he was actually we ve not full on aid be clover shying, but certainly before his mother was there which is kind of a rare citing. So it was certainly what they wanted to see out of New Hampshire that close margin. Nay? We were talking earlier in the evening when, on cable tv, a lot of the commentary was about club ashore. And Buddha Judge and you're, like hey people are paying enough attention to Bernie Sanders. So let's grab Bernie Sanders. What did you make of his performance time? So I mean the issues there two versions of this right, there's a version where ones totally rational and we're starting out with Tabular I certainly is the kind of corrective version. But let me start with the correct version set was how you lead me to this question right. Just on a fundamental level. It did seem weird to me that a lot more was being made about Amy closures. Place finish. Then people would attach to second place finnish and in turn more wars made by big and second, then then Sanders in first, because you can

obviously start to dissect that a little bit more, you can safer. Example that they should have been play good state for Bernie Sanders. I agree he dropped off a lot from twenty. Sixteen I agree, although a multiethnic raising it in can't eraser a little bit hard to compare right, You got sixty percent he's not closing well with late decider. I agree. I agree with all those who know he hasn't proven. You can turn out new voters with all this. But the fact is also that, like Hampshire's. Also, we really good state for people to church and its people pretty good state for any club which our why the state has a lot of white people, in fact The college educated why people who are highly up to date politics. Fellow lot of news, that's kind of their core constituency. So to me, no he has won a state outside of kind of their comfort zone. Our Bernie has finished. First him These states in kind of tied for first, we don't actually know the delicate winner of Iowa, yet by the way they our time after tonight. Right but like you know and bernie-

is the by all indications. They can it. Who has, I suppose, the best chance of doing well and other states we have. Poles of Nevada in South Carolina in a very long time, we do but centres is, hopefully leading a national poles. We do his coalition is, is actually fairly diverse, its diverse racially. It's not edgewise, which is interesting riper. He has like a lot of support. I have always supported under forty or forty five or so we know he has a lot of money if you kind of one When they have states, and you're in the lead national poles, and you raise the most money money billion error some I mean in some ways. I think the reason why I take your point. Eight like people should be paying attention to the Sanders win, but I also think this state was kind of about who lost who was the surprise sublime, was a surprise. Breathing Biden

foreign were in the fact that they didn't need the delegate threshold once I think pretty surprising to people, and I think that clear Bashar got the bump and attention in part because of the Warren report poor showing here. So you need fifteen percent, of course, to get delegates and worn got. Nine Biden got eight out of time of this recording what on earth happened? I mean Biden. We obviously saw his poor performance in Iowa and I think people were almost already writing the script. For tonight. He went to South Carolina for tonight's results. Instead of actually staying in New Hampshire Biden did. But what happened with warm? Do you have a sense of where the campaign is that clear argument that people are using about Warren on two fronts. About her elect ability is really catching on with voters. Liza that you did you hear

Should we really now made a woman this time around and if you're a closure voter, and you think you should not made a woman, you're gonna freaked out by her progressive ism, and I think that that warns progressive ISM and I think those attacks have been really effective on her pay in the past couple of weeks? I think I said this earlier last week. They cannot we're late to get into the pot Iowa await meet like narrative scrapping, that's that kind of maybe hurt them a little bit here. So it's kind of an interesting on the margins sort of thing Jeff. Did you see anything else about Byron and warns performance in the polls that paint the picture of what went wrong with me I mentioned earlier, but if you look at college educated voters which until all Layton. Twenty nineteen looked like a really good area for Elizabeth Warren in terms of support, and tonight I mention it up losing

didn't do very well among them, enclosure of winning among cottage voters and college educated women. If you're trying to figure out how and could when she needed those types of voters, and she didn't really get them nearly the levels that I think we expected, and maybe some of that was people moving because of what, only concerns like Clare said, but I mean look at the numbers s just the clear weakness, for I mean if you're in New Hampshire people are for a to news coverage and super attuned to the poles, unlike Warren fairly or not did not get fair average out of Iowa, even though she bit her poles finishing through place. I don't think she performed particularly well at the debate maybe more importantly, boaters Interpol with Ipsos gave her. She usually attorney. Numbers. She had mediocre number to this debate. You know it's a kind of a math problem right if you have three add a two hour ascending where Anderson Buddha Church Co. One Iowa also they both

on the debate. According to our Paul club Bashar fifth place, I will somehow got women from that because of a good firms. The debate and in the three countries were taken votes rather candidates, there's, like only so many votes to Europe, By the way, some of the minor candidates- you know none other gabert and the Yankees who dropped out and the Patrick's Bennets right most of them actually and from their poles to, and so really was. A question of, like ok. Here are three courses are moving forward and you gonna pick. One of them to what anyone's overlap a lot, but we there are different wrinkles here. You know Warren does well among complicated voters. If you're thou someone who says I want a experienced woman, sadder or just experienced so Her period is kind of within the broad mainstream of the Democratic Party than war an club. A worked pretty well right, if you're high checking a list of of matter. At verses positions on a much of issues that maybe not, but like that's, not how a lot of us

thank and so yeah it'll rounded over for both Buddha shush british edge and I quote, Bashar, so long I can imagine they become like three in and president, not gonna happen became it abbreviate, but the great problem. Ok way, but I want to say we gotta we gotta do club, but like the analogous you could do booty its problematic. So I had somebody suggesting I don't email on Twitter today that we should be describing undecided. Voters at Buddha Judge rallies as booty curious, I don't know, that's appropriate for the pact, but it's gonna stay close its lead in this. Now things are getting added it very edited anyway, but you mentioned gang and better. So we should point out for both of those we're gonna talk about how this affects the model and what this means. For the next to contest in the nation, which are much more diverse, but first today's podcast is brought to you by Ring

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Voters there are saying, is mimicry of of their of the campaign law in which is, which is variation on a Trump twenty, sixteen line, which is basically winning begets winning. So when and then other people will vote for you because they want to vote for a winner the vote count now there's some holes. In that logic, I think because I do think you know that the british campaign will say No one knew his name a year ago. He still being entered these two new audiences, all of which is true, I'm perfectly nor the audiences, but he had a really it start going down into places like South Carolina going into Nevada, and I think so, like Sanders and, frankly, Warren who has a pretty good operation down there. I think a lot of women, voters might have some sense of Come Roddy Ruth her one. For a woman still.

It see more inroads for other candidates who are still in the game, rather Buddha Judge, who I do think, is a bit late in relationship building on there in part, because he focused so much effort on winning these first two states. So it's it's kind of you know it's double edged sword of you, gotta proof You can win, I went to the early sit within also already have the campaign structure in place to carry it yeah. So it's you know I was. I was too. Just another reporter in, and he was I'm saying you know what? If Biden drops out in the next couple weeks, then, like maybe people would maybe, by voters would be. Oh, I want another. I wanna votes, you do they. I want another moderate white guy. Who could you know possibly winter? were moderate like eyes the upper Midwest. So people, I think, are really I think the overall sense was kind of Yeah, what's gonna happen, Irene, nay, and just does winning beget winning is that borne out

the data is a logical argument, winning relative, do I get the more technical answer right winning relative to losing begets winning. Is that what it as is good, given the layman's to winning, is good, but winning is interpreted relative to expectations? That's one reason why that centres didn't give out much credit. I thought it was especially a lack of credit, but likely that, aside for now, if your sex to win states, because the Euro, the national front multinationals and or it's a good state for you geographically, whatever, then you don't get as much credit for a win their right, but still name does does to some extent beget winning and every day the headlines will read Bernie winds. New Hampshire, the literal headlines right. The cable news now so be so much more complicated, your attorney. Macedonia's analysis will be, you know more complicated but like, but like they have. Tomorrow to some degree answer good headway

Infer per Sanders, but yeah look, I mean the thing it went rocker Ernie is that he only got twenty five point. Eight percent of the vote and almost lost, and those are big problems- Surely everything else, though in went well for Bernie include limited, maybe the exact order, a finnish of the rest of the field, because that'd be a threat to burning we're, always Elizabeth Warren who could win the progressive Lane and Joe Biden who, until eight days ago, was a national front runner and now Are you not only have not had? One of the moderates win, actually had a new moderate Amy Club Bashar enter the arena and I Now there are four moderates rubbish. Our Buddha church Bloomberg and our friend Joe Biden, who all have some type of clay, I'm being the strongest moderate. Cannot they all can make some typically about that ripe snobbish? I can say I had the most

of course, a very vague concept. Politics can say: I've done the best so far, which is definitely true, Biden can say, so the strongest national poles and most of escalation positively through labour could say. I am the one who has a ton of money and the fact that you will honour perform, means that you might as well turned to me to coordinate around. So they can all make a kind of credible claim I don't really know affecting it resolve before Super Tuesday, so you get a lot of outcomes that precede like this. Who the hell knows. It happens in Nevada, maybe Biden Coast in South Carolina, maybe not right, but you have british stronger, Alyosha Delegate's on Super Tuesday one of the moderates emerges is the strongest caddy in that matter is coming from behind, with only about six still to allocate Bernie Sanders having a lead with may be a majority unlikely, if not unobtainable. Right, so I mean the kind of modal outcome will suit. Our model says than running the Morocco at this point is like. Maybe you have a Bernie Sanders

body and having that's right spreading out there, I mean all the way. Yeah. I'm curious, though theory was always the Elizabeth, worn and Bernie Sanders were in some way sharing voters what we saw and I was the Elizabeth Warren dropped off significantly in the polls and that Bernie Sanders didn't over perform. Has poles didn't pick up much support? And, ultimately you know you can't compare two thousand sixteen to twenty twenty, but it wasn't performing as well in places where he did perform quite well in twenty sixteen. Why isn't he picking up all? As with Warren voters was? very wrong. All along I dont know if he necessarily didn't pick up any manhood. I know fully the poles made it very liberal. Warren supporters are the ones that that stuck with her and then once you weren't, very liberal,

They may be their second choice, the very liberal ones centres- and maybe once you are very liberal, said one doesn't seem it does a hot and moved to closure. For example, I mean that They have been what we saw especially again, looking like college education images that staff just continues to surprise the heck out of my minutes. Given warrant strength there in and not to long ago, so I do think its partially ideology- and so you would think Sanders, but we ve seen discussions of class in an education, how that overlaps and how I mean centres, for example, one among, on college data, voters in New Hampshire and so Thank you might see a situation where a cow judge, Kate voters who are liberal looking at other options, decide centres, and I think that's what we may have seen in part tonight, nay, you kind of hinted.

You know what the model will say when this is all said and done, and once it's finished updating which I while finnish soon and then will it be posting updates. Can you give us maybe a little gasp? Does it seem, like then I guess there's a lot, including cannons dropping out tonight. There are quite a few contingencies and look in some ways. I don't think this is the time when you should be paying that much attention the model for two reasons, number one is that this might be other case, where the spend their voters here is different in the mile assumption. Right where the model assumes that look. Open a margin of victory, but Bernie Sanders. It's quite a bit of credit for winning New Hampshire, which may or may not be how the more sophistical slash spin forward analysis actually works right. Number two is that you have a speaker coordination problem where ok, let me drop a hypothetical what say that the continuing innovator endorses

closure in the Nevada caucuses. Let's say that ten or fifteen in promoting democratic lawmakers, maybe not necessarily centres and governors, but like representatives right endorse, club are some of whom are switches from other candidates. Right say that she surges from four percent to ten percent in national poles, which gets a further serves based on terrible news coverage right and the next week. After all about English, and then she finishes a strong second to Bernie Sanders in Iowa caucuses right like an I work in the Nevada Caucasus. Its light for the model can, I think, about scenarios, Pacific right. That's a speculation. It kind of averages out like a lot of different possibilities but like, but how this result is interpreted. And whether there is any effort to coerce around one of the moderates is higher.

Drops out are all pretty hard to predict. Speaking of the dropping out part, maybe we can wrap things up on its two suggestive. I guess whatever. Let's talk about Biden at what point? Does it become clear Clare that things are working out there? There's not a viable forward? When is the earliest that he drops out? You know I'm still of see how he does in Nevada South Carolina, although I will say he's he's going much all in on South Carolina and the south in general. I think. So the order of operations is Nevada than South Carolina he doesn't do well and I think the early so drop out would be South Carolina

because he really has put so much at stake in that particular state as an example of what's to come on Super Tuesday, basically or the the big voting swap dates in March and then summon April he's not going to drop out before then I don't think, but I do think his campaign, I mean it was a radical move. I think the wonders for him to leave for South Carolina. I think, as a banner human level, he's peas, Polly, pretty humiliated right now, and I think you can see him kind of expressing our frustration on the trail. So. I think it so it's a campaign, that's doing a lot of aggressive soul searching right now, but I don't think I'll drop out right away the if you are making an argument earlier this evening, you're hot, take, was the bite and could be what the next to drop out or something I don't. If I put it quite like but basically what I was saying was it would not shock me if

to be this coming weekend, Biden, seamen I've. No arouses he's dropping out ahead in Nevada. I think what his campaign is going to do is they are going to look at their numbers in a vacuum and lets say he's slightest cratered in out which it's possible given given the start here and this fund raising, is drying up and he's starting to get calls from Democrats, her saying Joe, if you stains race, you're gonna make it more likely to Bernie. Sanders is gonna, be the nominee, and I know that you're a democratic cap The democrat- and this is what you care about- you wanna, be tromp and it doesn't look like it's going to be you he might counted, it was my last year. Are you know, or something, but my last ride, but I abyss I just wanted to put it out there to people like it would be so rising, but you may be shouldn't be shocked if it happens, because at the same time, for Joe Biden, if this is it here, where you been humiliated. If it looks like he's gonna,

the more humiliated that might be enough for him to say you know what I'm gonna get out and then endorses closure, something which then you know as a spent on the race. In my change thanks, the name drop. A final word on by me. Next moves, statistically people drop out when their dropping right they drop out when their falling in the polls and biting his. How should I go Nepal is at the same time, like I don't know He actually is still. Second national poles version samples you have to. Data, you didn't figure, be very good for any eyes. Underperform relative to that right I mean, I know you think he went to Sea through until South Carolina. I would think that the thing that might pimp something is I kinda, maybe just not feeling it right. Maybe he has poles in South Carolina. Could I think if, if he were comments that he could have a fifty fifty shot or they respectable shot of winning South Carolina. Then I don't think he'd quit. I thank you Nevada. Has expectations can't really guinea lower? You know what I mean in my

be a monotonous. What is going on at a sorry guys, don't Hell is going on in Nevada any because no one ever knows what's going on and about a cock, as it would seem like it get for burning, but the coroner Union today, just so that these flyers said he's gonna take away your health care in but so many words right. That's interesting high level. Wildcard Harry No, I mean like us, Nevada. I mean who s someone, Estonian, isn't like the states. As you know about it, What happens in Nevada stays in Nevada and then of Carolina, Mean right now, actually naughty, where right. The model things that right now. Actually, I'm sick girl back the models confused, because its pricing in further declines from Biden in a way from New Hampshire makes Nevada worse and then Nevada Effects South Carolina and then all of a sudden you could have Bernie responding software

and which is in what you would necessarily expect based only challengers yeah do much reap yeah. Ok Let me rap on this question, which is a little bit backwards looking, but we got a lot of questions about it. After the I will call guesses and they never talk too much about it. So as to you Jeff and then we'll rap for the evening turn out, I was turn out in twenty twenty compared to pass primaries in New Hampshire. And is there anything we can deduce from that all central seem because at the start of the night, when I was looking at places that had completely reported turn out like it was behind, two thousand eight and this slight bit ahead of twelve sixteen suggest in the democratic primary and in two thousand eight was the record as too shy tuna, ninety thousand and obviously that was extremely competitive primary with Bravo Bobbin Hillary Clinton. Also John Edwards, who hadn't completely fauna, left the ratio at that point, but as things stand, it looks like it might be around the same or

higher, maybe two thousand a year. Now. I think one important thing here to remember, though, that in two thousand eight the Republicans also had a competitive primary going on. So, if you're thinking about we're on pleaded voters were going, they were probably split. I mean I don't know how they split but to some extent the relevant affiliate very shy up in both primaries well with an uncompetitive republican power. Mary, this time around you're, going to figure that if an affiliate voters vote in the primary most of them were vote, the democratic wanting you can actually see that show up and the example numbers for the republican primary which, oh by the way, present Trump one very easily. I think give us eighty six percent last time I checked out temper. If her bill wilder. Yes exactly time, tony child. I saw him in the lobby yesterday, but The numbers in terms of like ideology, organs. Was the most conservative primary electorate that they never did like decibels ever had in Hampshire. I think that suggestive of if IRAN affiliated to lean Republican, they they're dead

in the road and primary interest at home, or they even voted in the democratic primary. And that also showed up, though in the democratic primary exit polls right because, the moderates have higher numbers rate. There. It was actually a slightly more moderate electorate, primary electorate per the exit polls than in twenty sixteen, and I think that there were some related to might have voted. Lookin primary last Sunday for John K, sick or something and this time their voting and the democratic primary, and maybe that health closure, for example, no result some bad takes on cable tv about her Hu, the electorate is getting more modern and it's like, while others actually different voters, so important to keep in mind anyway. I am sure that will be podcasting again. For too long. It's also nearing one. I am so thank you need. Thank you gallon. Thank you. Glare thinks Galen Veggie Jeff thank Galen. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow,

Anna Rothschild and Kevin Rider are on audio and video this evening, which reminds me you can watch this on Youtube if you like we're sitting over in some empty corn All of the news organisations are wrapping up packing things in and was hanging out or make a detour if there is a tax that is due to you can get a judge by email as applied cats at five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, to as with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us, things were listening and we'll see, her