Did you guys hear each other? We hear each other, but are we listening to each other? Rarely it's my experience. hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast on Michael Cohen, Gay Landruk is out today. Several news outlets reported beginning on Friday that Trump pressured the ukrainian President investigate Joe Biden and his son, and on Sunday Trump confirmed that he did speak to the ukrainian President about the Bidens, we'll dig, deeper entities Ports and discuss whether this moves, the needle for impeachment also later in the show, we'll discuss the New DES Moines Register Poll released on Saturday showing how the democratic candidates are fair. In Iowa Short, where is Warren, was up by TIM, was down a little bit, but will get into all that here with me to discuss our editor in Chief Nate Cell,

hey Micah bring some enerji thanks, Nate and senior writer Clare Malone, hey MIKE. I hear if you talk from your diaphragm, that's what singing How do you talk from you? You push the air up from like your stomach area. Is this better? Let's start with the Ukraine situation, I like really don't want to lay this out Claire. You want to take a shot at laying out. What's going on there, it's a doozy says the script, and I agree. In the last few days, the Washington Post and the New York Times have both reported that someone in the? U S, intelligence community, filed a whistle blower complaint on August 12th. That involved President Trump's, making a quote unspecified commitment to a foreign leader that includes other actions more details emerge. Since then, the Wall Street Journal reported that President

trump in a July phone call repeatedly pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, Son Hunter, urging Volodymir Zelinski wow, thank you that was very good actually about. Eighty seems to work with Rudy Giuliani. The president's lawyer on a probe that could hamper Mister Trump's, two thousand and twenty The opponent, Giuliani and Trump want Ukraine to look into whether Joe Biden, when serving, as vice president improperly pushed for ukrainian investigator to be fired because he was investing at a ukrainian oligarch who owned a company that Biden son. Hunter Biden was involved with you got that ok, Giuliani and Trump have not provided any evidence to back up these claims a little bit or, and then we're almost done with this setup. Also hanging over. All of this is us military aid to Ukraine and whether Trump was holding that back to incentivize Ukraine. To look into the Biden story.

The administration hasn't released the transcript of this call. So we don't know if this was a quid pro quo situation, really there's actually a lot. We don't know, but Trump himself said that he talked to Zalenski, about that's the ukrainian leader about corruption and about

Hunter Biden. Here's a clip from Sunday's Trump spoke to reporters outside the White House. We had a great conversation. Conversation I had was largely congratulatory was largely corruption. All of the corruption taking place was largely the fact that we don't want our people, like Vice President Biden in his son, creating to the corruption already in the Ukraine in Ukraine. Ukraine's got a lot of problems. The new president is saying that he's going to be able to reach the country of corruption that I said, that would be a great thing and just before we started recording this podcast were here at Monday, midday Trump was asked again at the,

when General Assembly in New York about his call with celeb ski and he said, quote it's very important to talk about corruption. If you don't talk about corruption, why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt? It's very important that on occasion you speak to somebody about corruption. All right! That's are set up, so if first of all great job, setting that up, I think from now on that was all off the top of my head. I have a new host yeah Claire Claire much better at it than I am from my diaphragm. Let's start with this before we like really get into the nitty gritty anymore. How big of deal is this Nate? It kinda broke all in quick succession where you're like, oh my god, oh my god, or were you like? Ok, and, if you aren't mechanic reaction, there are certain types of stories that five hundred and thirty eight,

think about 'cause, their wonky and data driven or poll driven right, and you can be more clear, empirical and there's some types of stories where it's like this might be a big deal, but it's a little harder for us to value on what we say about it, in some ways if the allegation, true that that Trump put pressure on Ukraine dredge up dirt on Joe Biden and in some ways it's kind of a cleaner through line, then the Russians came. Is it directly involves trumpets trump? It's potentially, if true a clear quid pro quo will probably getting some discussions about what that means for impeachment, you kind of get the sense from kind of reading what liberals I want to call this is kind of the straw that broke the camels back. On the other hand, I could argue perhaps I will argue later on this podcast that, like in some ways the constant calls for impeachment have made it harder for

Potentially higher impact story to be differentiated from this trump is doing. Corrupt stuff, and we know that and therefore has a forty two percent approval rating, but also we don't want impeachment. I will I do think this is a little bit of a story I mean I I take all of of what you say, neat that they're certainly reactions. That Democrats tend to have in the wake of of stories like this, that they always kind. Like ramp it up to ten, but I think a couple of things are going on that have caught people's eye with the store One is that it involves the current front runner in the democratic primary and Trump

and Trump obviously see. I think Trump probably sees a couple of people as his biggest opponents, and so I do think what is happening here and what a lot of political people recognize is. Ok, we've just set a narrative for the twenty twenty election. You know this is something that Trump, if Biden becomes, the nominee would probably come back to again and again, yes- and I do want to get into that- I think we should talk about how this affects trump to re election, how this effect potentially Biden's primary fight. But just going back to the story itself, my first reaction was yeah- I mean this all kind of kicked off with the Giuliani interview on curse. Almost show on CNN Thursday night. I was like doing the dishes and Giuliani clips come across the transom, making some pretty big allegations basically well much funny actually is my dad was staying with me for the past couple days, and normally I don't watch television news, but my dad

watches television is nonstop, and so I saw this all develop until actually answered. My first reaction was at first, we didn't have the detail about Ukraine and the detail about Trump, specifically pressuring for an investigation of Biden, so it was all speculation. About this whistleblower complaint. We didn't really know anything else, except that it involved a foreign leader. So I was like this seems much ado about who the fuck knows right. We don't really know yet, but once that, once that Wall Street Journal story really hit with the detail about, repeatedly pressuring, or at least repeatedly bringing up by dinner. Was replaced. Ukraine with Russia and Other investigation, right yeah. I think we should note here that the the call with the ukrainian President

Will love them years. Aline Skaggs took place the day after Muller testified before Congress and not parts amazing, that's sort of the. If you remember once mother was done, testifying the feeling was sort of like okay. That kind of russian destination is over and Trump has mostly escaped it and then the next day, apparently, he sort of asked living gradually. Less yeah, hey, like reportedly asked a foreign leader toe frankly interfere with us election, but anyway, let's let's get into what I think is the developing story. Now, which is how does this change? The imp peachment calculations for Democrats on the hill and Republicans on the hill. So, let's start with Democrats Nate you were getting into it take earlier. Does this change things for I mean it depends on if they care about the

underlying conduct or the political wisdom of impeachment and at some distant level those two are tied together, potentially, but previously Peach impeachment were something like thirty, five to thirty, eight percent in favor. Fifty five two fifty eight percent opposed more in that vicinity with a few people undecided. Despite that, there was- not a pressure from democratic rank and file to begin impeachment proceedings against Trump, of course, a lot of ambiguity about like what a hearing is great processes or a proceeding is or what that actually means. You know Poulos. It seemed like she wanted to slow, walk it and this is another catalyst for people calling for impeachment. In part, because if Trump doesn't release these trans, After the calls he has and he's kind of defying Congresses authority in that in some ways is it more still grounds for you know you have a problem with the separation of powers, etc, What we don't know yet is how biggest will this be with the public

move the needle in terms of public perception. You know, I think, Kratzer calling for impeachment some flimsy arguments if they used to kind of wave away the fact that it's quite unpopular despite also been quite unpopular and a lot of voters are probably hey. Look. We got this. Section next year- we got this- we can decide for ourselves whether we want four more years of trump or not. I mean, I think it need, is right that impeachment up until now has been pretty unpopular, what's interesting, to watch over the past couple of days? Basically, since this story is broken and since Nancy Paloski put out a letter part of the administration saying you have until this Thursday to release more information, you're seeing ROP Bing coming out in the past couple of days about congressional Democrats, saying essentially oh, some of these moderates are considering maybe changing their stance on impeachment and maybe they'd vote for it. This time, and I think

what those noises are in the reporting. These moderates kind moderates waiting to see what happens just to wait to see if the White House response polo sees kind of Thursday threat, but also to see how it plays out with the public like if People see this as a more popular thing than the Muller report version of impeachment, do you think they will. There is an argument. I guess that this is a much cleaner. Simpler, offense quote unquote to hang impeachment on, I mean what yeah, I mean in some ways some might help. Might that's all kind of kind together, but you know when you, when you get into these discussions with progressives, who are like well, impeachments good politically, even though it's really a popular it off and say well, as the public learns more about the case and public opinion will shift as it did for Richard Nixon and the rebuttal of that which there's not a good rebuttal to frankly, is that the

Russia story, was the most covered story by the media over the past two years. The did not move when bit as it was covered. More than numbers have not moved one bit as more Democrats called for impeachment as they have so. The notion of public is just misinformed. Just needs to you know be taught, but the difference is that this story might actually be new. That's what I'm saying not showing over the same stuff that we're doing over three years. This might actually be new, and you know I would think politically the more that Democrats can separate now and say this is new. This is new. This is Amy much bigger deal and then more trump Kim model it and say: oh, it's the same old S h. I t you know the same old. We do sparring this back sometimes I'm not sure why I went well. We do yeah, this, where you're it supposed to be, beat out, use that beep? No, I

I mean I walked into the office this morning and basically said to MIKE of Like the impeachment charges beat. What would they be? Would they be? on political grounds, as you Micah said to me, would they be like on the Richard Nick Conversion of abuse of power grounds or, as you Rick Kazin is sort of occasion of slate is arguing. This more, thing in a piece? Well, perhaps this could be a campaign finance charge right, like a almost like a quick. The quid pro quo could be treated as a potential contribution right, so those are theories that are floating around, but what I think, is always in the back of my mind is how the Trump team is going to defend against this right. My guess would be that they'll say this is just politics This is like normal right, because that was there Trump Tower meeting argument was like anybody would take the information, of course. The difference now is that Trump is president and not just a private citizen yeah. I stopped to like he said. Oh, I would never do that kind of thing,

with Russia right, it's kind of like you know what mad about this, but hey kind of how I roll a little bit and he hasn't really been particularly like Necker backing off in the press, conferences either. Well, that was so. Actually I wanted to go back to that Trump quote that came out just before we started recording, but first I want to tell you that today show is brought to you by him. Sixty six percent of men start to lose their hair by age. Thirty, five actually minus the thing on the top a little bit once you start to notice spinning it can be too late. The best way to prevent more hair loss is to do something about it. While you still have some it's time to get a handle on those precious locks for him's dot com is a one stop shop for hair loss, skin care and other wellness supplements for men. Thanks to science, baldness can be optional. Hymns is helping guys to be the best version of themselves, with licensed physicians and FDA approved products to help treat hair loss for her,

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about corruption? If you don't talk about corruption, why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt? It's very important that on occasion you speak to somebody about corruption, so we haven't seen the transcript of the call yet. But what's notable to me about that is Trump is connecting the conversation he add to the money right and that's the big thing we don't know still is Trump has said he talked to the ukrainian President about Hunter Biden, but we don't know yet whether he also talked and or explicitly connected that conversation to the? U S, military aid to and so the fact that I mean I'm like reading tea leaves here right, but like the fact that Trump is making that connection in the way he's thinking about the call, remember one thing that I think the mall report proved true is that Trump is actually somewhat careful.

But the precise way that he frames things in conversations that can be memorialized yeah right We learned that from the mother report. Well, it might be a small sample size right, but you never quite got the smoking, Trump never said into is explicit in tape when Michael Cohen testified before Congress about. Off that he was arranging for Trump. He basically said but he never says it explicitly. There's a nun standing and no- and you know Cohen, basically said having been around for years and understood how the organization operated. I knew what He wanted me to do, but Trump never explicitly said it. Do you guys think so? How speaker Nancy Poulos E has a set really drawn the line on impeachment from the stance of congressional

publicans, essentially saying impeachment has to be bipartisan, and so, therefore, you would need some congressional republicans to get on board if policy is going to sort of move ahead with impeachment. At least that sounds she's framed it before all this happened right. Do you think this story has the potential to change the calculus for either elected Republicans from Congress in particular or republican voters. I mean again in some ways I think, reporting the cart. Right? We don't know that much about. The story, and is there a smoking gun how that develops? You know I mean you add Mitt Romney kind of saying that looks pretty bad, which I think I don't know. I mean there's also. This kind of whole sense which talk about later about like has verb on biting. Potentially. This is like a cynical play by Trump to have like a kind of sea level scandal just together the words Biden and corruption yeah, but I don't know I mean we first, you know kind candor were like

do we really need to discuss the story on the podcast at all. It seems like it's still developing an obviously there are things you can decide for yourself reader, whether we have useful things to say about this or not. I do think this is a sorry in the fairly early stages, and so there might be a little bit of humility around that mean. Obviously, Pelosi I think is real. The polls. The same way that, frankly, I would write like a like Trump, is pretty popular. You could also point out that right, Trump is losing a ten by ten points so, let's go to the Sanders by five points and worn by four and slash two points right, so you can kind of Okay, maybe we to be risk of first, because right now we're in a good trajectory, and why do you want to increase volatility? Yeah maybe actually would make Trump even popular maybe make him more popular instead, but like but check tree checkers Project good right. Now, then, why add another complication to the works? Wait, but is that is that clear? How you think the

decision will be made in Congress. Okay, there are all these competing interests. There's the merits of the case, right of whatever case it. You do you actually some members of Congress sort of just saying this is one one straw too many and then there's the politics of it, both the politics with potential swing, voters, but also with the base which, as Nate said, is the base. Now just can be like you better freaking, impeach, or else I mean Claire. I actually think it's a really hard calculation for them right because it's, I think, Democrats are probably united from an ethical point of view in saying that they believe that Trump acts corruptly potentially criminally at times. But there is this fraction of them that is acting. I don't know how you want to raise it

with a real politik manner in a machiavellian understanding of power politics and when you're as players and they're saying either don't peach or in this newest case, wait and see those people get quite a bit of flack from aggressive voices saying you falling down in your moral leadership of this party, we will remember that you know see, I'm sure you'll, see a lot of primary challengers to moderate Democrats have taken that That's being like, you have abdicated your duty in this. For this point time, I think? Pelosi is in an interesting moment where she is probably spending the week very closely monitoring People are taking this in frankly, how the media is covering it, how Trump acts of about it. I mean I do think that there's credence to the idea that he to so together Biden in Ukraine. And how much are you feeding into a beast of a?

new cycle. I don't know I mean I don't know that Pelosi has played this particularly well I think in some ways the best argument plus it could make it like, of course, is conduct is horrible. But for us that impeachment. The possibility of removing a president from office- and we have no chance of doing it with a republican Senate. Therefore how many would be that the american people need to remove the president from office, we're going to focus on our agenda she's, starting maybe kind of make that argument. Now it's like it wasn't that before, and there was always I mean we talked before like during, like the various phases of the Muller Investigation right like well. What? If a new item comes along and kind of tips, the scale could like police it was kind of awkward middle zone, but maybe this is serious enough left, actually will also affect underlying public opinion on I know I just come back to like the fact that there's an election in fourteen months and historically impeachments come when a president is a lie,

duck or officials are no there's no way to remove them from office by the electorate. I'm not sure why there's not more weight put on that one impeachment and extreme remedy and by the way we can't like well it's to me. It's not so much that it's why the views of the compression Republicans better! So much because as long as the idea of Republicans voting to remove Trump seemed a fantasy, then you're talking about this ending in Trump's acquittal, if it even makes it out of the house right like who, besides Mitt Romney, it's going to be exactly end up and in that world. Ok, let's say impeachment takes five hundred and sixty seven months, something like that which is about how long that Clinton impeachment took then you're talking about it like playing out almost perfectly overlapped with the democratic primaries

caucuses, which just seems like a disaster for Democrats. In some ways, it just seems like tonight's points, bad timing, but I don't know if, if you think this merits impeachment that's at least a coherent argument right. Well, frankly, the more I read from people who actually constitutional scholars, they say yes, impeachment is inherently impart a political process. When about incentives where okay we're going to impeach you even if So in re election, that seems weird is not a really great disincentive. To do impeachable stuff versus saying we're going to impeach you if we can hurt you or before she removed from office right, but I don't think Pelosi has had a particular good answer to critics who were advocating for I think she kind of thought: hey it's all done and gradually the Russia stuff will fade out which may be incorrect calculation, but if Trump

it's a habit of trying to collude the thorn in her side. Trying to encourage foreign governments to make it harder, for? credit components. Then that's, you know that's a problem for her, Mason, I want you're retiring there. Aren't that many matter Republicans left period. You don't need that. Many, though, is that thing to me it's more about public opinion. Maybe it just to use a. We don't have a huge sample, but like on Nixon congressional Republicans. Really move until until the public did in overwhelming way you look at the. If I had about right now, I'd say the public doesn't move based on this, I'm just not a not a big way. I just want to say I think people are fatigued by this kind of thing. I know that sounds like a cynic. Thing to say, but we've spent the past two years, basically listening to Version of this story, it kind of feels like a redux of

Well, Russia Collusion store. I would push back on that a little and adjust to it I'll use myself as a proxy for the public, which is a a bad thing to do, because I'm not a great proxy, but. I already feel like. I have a better handle on this story, even though it's still developing, even though we still don't know a lot, then I ever did on the Russia story maybe says a lot, but like ok, I'm going to tell you the story of what happened here based on reporting right now and, like huge caveat all this, this is still developing. It could change President Trump pressured Ukraine to dig up dirt on Joe. Buying and son. That's a pretty easy elevator pitch right and then Maybe- and this is a huge- maybe we don't know this yet um and it may not be true president Trump withheld money to Ukraine toe

force them to dig up dirt on Joe Biden son. You never had even the potential flies simple, a thing as that with with the Russia thing right I mean you know, that's true so we want to do anything I don't know I mean this is what this is. One of those stories were like, as we sit here, 3D where it's kind of weird a like. I think we're all making educated guesses on like how is the american public reacted to these? These previous kind of, like well trodden paths of the two administration of congressional Democrats, but obviously, as we sit here, midday Monday September 23rd, it is a new thing and we don't know- and you have to take that in account also. I think what will be interesting to see is how this sticks or doesn't stick with bite and write. The idea that Fox someone tweeted out like the fox

news homepage page where it citing Devin Newness, saying that like buying, is going to drop by and is going to drop out imminently because of this scandal, so obviously there's going to be a certain line that is pushed in parts of the conservative media. I also think, the american people have a long term relationship with Joe Biden. Let's end, let's and on Joe Joe Biden the candidate do anything to change his standing in the democratic primary race. It could help or hurt the ways could help is number one. It looks like Trump is more fearful of right and for a makes by and look more electable number. Two could be that you have to have tragically progressives kind of rush to Biden's defense right and You know it does seem like there are people well who are very well represent on social media, who generally are pro impeachment Anne Pro Warren.

And because of being Pro Warren are generally pretty anti by them. That seems to correlate right. Those people seemed to be pretty much defending Biden, even though, could say that hey, maybe we give an a to or in the primary, because, because they're more kind of anti trump, they are Die Biden right, which makes sense it's kind of usually how partisanship works right. I did notice some of the property people felt differently in there like hey. This is corrupted. There is a rigged system, whatever else right, and so that was like a different argument and the ways turbine is yeah I mean. Obviously one does not need to be that's in uh. All about the media to say that, like hey the media, loves it when there can be the opportunity to take a minor scandal and say everyone's corrupt, we're being fair to both sides. Hillary Clinton and the Clintons in General had a reputation for corruption and therefore things just stick a little bit easier ride in stone, I don't think the bidens really

have that they haven't enrich themselves in the same way that Clinton's frankly did right, and so it's a a little bit of a harder, sell, yeah and he's seen a couple of conceivable in a scandal. Adjacent things like the touchy inappropriate touching and the racial comments have kind of slid off his back. Let see this is a different kind of What ended there, though, I think yeah corralling and he's hurting of the cam, let's move to Iowa, but first today's podcast is also brought to you by zip recruiter. Higher can be a slow process. Cafe Altura C. Oh, oh Dylan Misko. It's needed to hire a director of coffee for his organic coffee company, but he was having trouble finding qualified candidates, so we switched to Ziprecruiter. Critter dot does

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and it'll save you money, so you can treat yourself to something nice get honey for free at joint honey, dot, com, slash five hundred and thirty. Eight that's join honey, dot, com, slash five hundred and thirty, eight okay, we're back! And let's talk about that a new poll out of Iowa, the DES Moines Register released a new poll on Saturday showing police. Both Warren holding a two point lead over Joe Biden among the likely democratic caucus voters. One had twenty two percent Biden had twenty percent this according to and south, are from the show subject: the great Clare, Malone profile that everybody should read, but Seltzer told the Moines register. That quote, this has been the first major shake up and what has been a fairly steady race and quote so, let's start with the broad question: is this the first major shakeup name is an right? No, because this is a predictable result based on the way the polls have trended nationally. In fact, on Friday, after

then marketing not participate. I try to get in participating, I put it my guess is of what the pool would be, and this is just based on looking at other polls of Iowa plus trends since the last shelter pole during which, Time Warner has gained a bunch of points nationally and I predicted it would Warren twenty three right and twenty, the extra result was Warren. Twenty two, Biden Twenty every candidate, I was within two percentage points except for Bernie Sanders. Who, I think is the real store. Of this poll, because that is newsworthy. That he's struggling a lot and I and he was at eleven percent in this poll, the candidate who got forty nine twenty percent of the vote last time and I were basically ritually tied Clinton there. That was a surprising number to me, I had kind of educated guess: Idli thought, hey you be at sixteen or thereabouts, which is not great but like burning yeah, but he was at eleven So for me yeah I mean for me: you would have expected so wait. Wait wait, okay, so just

run through the results. Warren twenty two by didn't twenty Sanders eleven, but the Judge nine Harris Sex Club, which are three bakir, three or work to gabbard to Yang Taos Tire to Claire, was, was your headline from this, also about Sanders being down or was it about Warren being up, or I think the headline stands that Warren is up and I think it's I mean it is correct that the trend line was that way. But I think most people read the news differently the Nate, even though we have a website constructed to make them view the the news differently. But but yes, I do think it is notable that Warren has taken the first slot. I think it kind of we've spent the past few weeks. Talking about her study upper directory in national polls too, and I owe is obviously a state that is almost geared for a candidate like Warren, the Democrat,

primary electorate. There is white and progressive. So just the very fact that she is now sort of at the top of the polls, I think probably adds to some of her momentum there. I think digits being being kind in the game there up on Harris is interesting too, but yeah Sanders continues to be sort of a. I know I will catch flak for this from from Sanders supporters, but I do think at least in my mind, he has become a slight nonentity because of his the static nature of his place in the polls and his campaign right now and so so, just sort of seeing Biden and Warren kind of pull away in a state like Iowa, where you could potentially see it being good for Sanders. Is notable and it kind of kind of adds to my sense that he is falling further away. Yes, let's Dan Sanders and then we'll go to by then but Nate, the an Iowa problem. Or a problem problem. Both

because he shouldn't have Iowa problems unless he has bigger problem. Yes right and explain what should be a stronger state for him, so we should say the polls for Sanders in Iowa have been generally fairly. Poor, but a bit all over the place right. So earlier last week you had No other Iowa polls come out post debate ahead of Mitt sixteen person and nine percent respectively. Before that you had a Look up old about twenty six percent, but uh some of at nine percent in Iowa, so general Sanders has been little below is national numbers in Iowa It doesn't really make sense, given that Iowa has a lot of progressives, which should be at least based on the twenty sixteen coalition, his stronger group, he again fared fairly well in caucus state. Obviously, in two thousand sixteen, he almost beat Hillary there in two thousand eckstine there Ok, good rationale for why Sanders underperforming in Iowa that I can think of other, in fact that, like

Frankly, he has a little bit of a sell by date and that when voters are more exposed to him that they get more excited about something other alternatives, Warren being number one a, but maybe also attach a little bit there, not at similar ideologically, but they do both. Kill to young voters their new and kind of different. You know, I think, burn he is not used to the fact that, like he is no longer truly the outsider. He is not the freshest flavor in the race and also separately, one interesting demographic split, the poll had the salt. Paul was they looked at? Who you voted for in twenty sixteen, and I. Making their whole small sample size but literally, zero percent of Clinton, two thousand and sixteen tacos where is for Sanders this time. So, if you're, if you're starting with so Forty four forty five percent of voters, nationally percent of voters nationally. Sixteen, if you start with and then Warren removes a big chunk of that and then buchecha.

And Yang and even Biden, because there were some voters in the burning Sixteen who sixteen voting for Clinton, not Clinton they 'cause, they were printed, I just didn't like Clinton for any of a number of reasons and Biden saw some of those reasons right. So, all of a sudden, you start out with forty five and then Warren takes twenty out of that and Buddha church takes you know, takes five and Yang, takes three inviting takes a and all the sudden then you're down in the in the low to mid teens and, like I don't know, like Iowa voters are paying more attention to the campaign. Ok Sanders has a problem does biting have a problem to clear so stop being about August, the Biden, team and Biden himself. Sort of started, pushing the lying that they don't need to win Iowa in order to win the primary, I think, at campaign sees understand

but they do not do well with white, progressive liberals, white liberals. So, while wouldn't look good leasing, Iowa and potentially New Hampshire. There. They say this in this comes from the campaign. They say like listen. We have essentially like a southern strategy, a super Tuesday strategy, they want to win South Carolina, they want to win a lot of those March Third Super Tuesday states where there's votes in the s things like that, so I think the Biden campaign is definitely putting it out there kind of softening the of potentially losing Iowa and they're right about that right. Now I mean they don't have to win Iowa. That's when I Iowa its upward like this. If they did didn't, I would be in a very strong position and if they lose I than they are in a vulnerable position, but But no, I was useless, s is hashtag. Well, But for now we hold, though, if because I was should be a good Warren state. I don't think anyone denies that. So she doesn't

to strongly in Iowa, let's leave out a little bit of ambiguity. You finish like a strong second in wins New Hampshire or something. But is she I don't know whether that means like even into your best circumstances, you're not able to win, and then you probably in trouble, but no it's absolutely valid. Point out. The Iowa is a liberal and white electorate and that's not Biden, strength. You know, maybe some Bernie strike either anymore, but then he doesn't really have any strengths is the problem. So what about Kamala Harris She didn't do well at all in this poll and on the one hand, what about the Iowa elector? It would seem to suggest ok, it's not that much of a Harris state, on the other hand, pain is going all in on was war so that I think Harris wants to do well in Iowa too. Electability point. Perhaps yeah she has talked about this a lot

you know she started off in the beginning of the summer. With these attacks on Biden and having sort of like a she had a profile right, there was something that people kind of associated with Harris as the summer. Gone on that sort of faded and well people. Well, I think black voters definitely are considering her as like sort of maybe one of their top two or three candidates. She kinda needs to do well in, like these white states or states where she could be you like a war, an alternative kind of like a establishment but like a little progressive, and she basically needs to. I think like get get that momentum get that electability momentum does first campaign going all in on Iowa for whatever that means. Mean she's, trying to position himself

or as a war in alternative, rather than a by now. Turning, I think for the opposite. I think there's another reporting around it and again you know my prior is that campaign to make lots of mistakes, and so, and so we should be trying to rationalize the other than maybe. The answer is that there We're struggling in there and they're kind of grasping for new ideas, but some of them, and it kind of says more. I think she thinks that is vulnerable there right in Iowa and that maybe, if the parlay is okay, bye struggles in Iowa, he gets like thirteen percent or something moderates like they say it's going to be Warren or Sanders therefore they rally around Harris as the alternative to Warren. Sanders Spring night. Maybe I know, and a lot of a lot of the moderates that need is talking about being black voters right. So if, if, if Biden and her

Press have been competing all summer, basically for like congressional black caucus endorsements, which is a little bit of an indicator of like who the black vote in certain important states might be leaning towards. I think she is kind of going after Bidens lunch because she's proving maybe she should prove to if black voters are largely concerned with electability or moderate voters in the demo. Party are largely is concerned with electability and they back Biden because of that it's Harris proves that she can win in a state like Iowa than they'd, say: ok, she's, a good alternative to Joe Biden for me, because she's she's proven I like that she's prosecutorial and she's proven me that she can compete against all of these other like high profile people, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go for her and that and then that does well for her starting in late February March and she doesn't need toe. When I pride at this point. I mean she's doing poorly enough where, like if she came in third third or second

Ok. So let's say, let's say: Iowa is like she has a really strong night Warren three thirty three hundred church, sixteen Sanders, fourteen Harris thirteen Biden, twelve, something like that right. What's that result in, I think it results in Elizabeth Warren win the nomination and, like everyone kind of else being in trouble, if she dominates to that degree because you don't know, that's agree, it probably means that, like she's doing fine She went to see her. The vote is dominating for Iowa standards. Where can it's often with twenty percent? Twenty five percent- and also you know, there's a lot of like fifty there's, not a clear, second place or Buddha check second place where he might not. I don't know which scenario results in from here First winning Iowa results in her kind of winning the nomination. Where she's. I don't know, let's wrap on this, though, what about all the other candidates? Is there anything in there to say any

think about any of the other people. Where should we ignore them? I think we should note that someone like Cory Booker came in at three percent. It's in the cells or pole tied with Klobuchar three percent his campaign over the weekend basically said we need money, or else we're gonna have to drop out by the look. I think the end of the month something like that. So you you are starting to see. Now I don't. Actually I don't totally buy that they do that necessarily, I think it's certainly not a move from strength for certain candidates. It's just it's like O'Rourke, and Booker. I think in those early states kind of, want to say. Listen. We have great. We have great ground game, were really good at retail politics, but they're also not popping in the polls in those states. So I think that's a problem. In some ways, the some news is new, there was a earlier poll. Last week they had club Achaar at eight percent in Iowa shoes at three percent in the Selzer poll she had been eight

multiple as well, then you have a whole sort of stories. Not subject to sampling error about like go home. That doesn't would charge, I mean. Maybe so. I wrote last week like are people just denying the obvious that maybe it's just Warren biting, which is the Third redo of Clinton Obama? and Clinton? Now it's Warren Biden, they kind of each and represent roughly half the party and you're going to see this. Two person tango again. So should we just like called itself this podcast until January? Here's why we shouldn't the seltzer both there There are a couple reasons we should yeah one is about to do. The ad buys the the second, though, is the Selzer poll also found that just one in five likely democratic caucus, goers say their minds are made up

sixty three percent said they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate, yeah and where okay were in September. This is bad news for a lot of candidates yeah, but that's a fair. That's like a very interesting, not get that. I think Probably a lot of people won't take away from from a lot of the stories about the pole, which is Like I don't know where Obama was in the, Register Poll in at this time in thousand seven he had in. I don't remember he had answered yet yeah, I think so. Perhaps the judge is like the Obama, figure in the in this September poll right where it's like. Ok, like in third, and no one like you know young unknown right, like the idea that that Obama wasn't, as far back is like oh I'm at two percent, or no into hit on something we had all the time in terms of like

early. It is and how polls have a margin of error and house of changes? What we stand right now if to judge, were to win Iowa, I think it would be an upset given where we are now, but it wouldn't be shocking. Like he's he's in there and he's he's, a he's got a total. There said regionalism, like he's from a nearby stadium, you know Inch by the way so Obama I'm going list some polls from two thousand September, two thousand and seven. Obama in Iowa twenty four percent: twenty five percent: twenty eight percent nine, teen percent thirteen percent twenty three percent twenty two percent, twenty two percent, these October timber August, so he was like basically where Warren inviting are now. So don't give me too much of this going to come back to be a three way race in Clinton Obama and but yeah. If we're looking at eighteen percent in Iowa or Harris where at sixteen percent, that would be different

like it does. Look like there is some gap between Warren and Biden and the rest of the field there more than it is nationally where clearly war a little bit ahead of Sanders, but not as much and what I think was initially. I believe it was. This was in the if the Civics Analytics Data for progress poll that showed people second choices and that that Warren yep was the more like to have people drop out of the race, not just if they'd drop out but so in the like physical caucus? Yes, yes, you also can like, if you like- okay, well, Sorry Kamala Harris Coalition, y'all, don't fifteen percent. Therefore come over, we distribute to the Elizabeth Warren, it's like red clover. Do you guys ever play Red Rover when I was a kid yeah, it's kind of kind of like what the caucuses yeah we should probably more about the second choice number, because those further boost Warren

Ccleaner, not very help for any camera apart from war and, frankly so like that. Well, the second choice and the like: who are you considering questions? One always does better than ever now Sionis, but let's leave it there guys could chat. Mica good job MIKE I'm much better at hosting than reading is fun. I would say. Reading is hard. I can't read. Thank you. May I thank you for hosting you're welcome. Thank you. Claire thanks, MIKE you're welcome. My name is MIKE. A common tony chow is in the control. Room are in term, is Jake are low. You can get in touch with us by emailing podcast five hundred and thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweet it us at Nate, silver, five hundred and thirty, eight on Twitter at Clare Malone Twitter, if you're, a fan of the show, leave us a rating or view in the Apple podcast store. Please do that. It actually helps a lot. You can say how great of a host I was, or just tell a friend about us and tell him how good of a host. I was thanks for listen

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