hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Gail and the democratic Party is in the middle of figuring out a big part of its two thousand and twenty election strategy. That is who presidential nominee will be at the moment. The he has more than twenty options to choose from. Wilkins, on the other hand, know who their nominee will be, or at least are almost certain. It's president Trump and they're planning their twenty twenty Accordingly, one well known republican polling, firm public opinion strategies recently released a report the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead. It's called what republic need to know as we move toward the twenty twenty election. So today we're going to focus on Republicans are thinking about their prospects in twenty twenty, with the co founder and managing partner of public opinion strategies, Bill Mcinturff, hi bill thanks for joining me today. Thank you and happy to do it and bill.

So conducts the NBC news. Wallstreet journal poll along with heart, associates so bill. In the report you say that the Republican Party is quote not in great shape, but is still in a competitive position. So why isn't the party in great shape right now? Well, there's there's some kind of challenges, the Republican Party has number one. President Trump is having a political consequense is kind of shifting our traditional views about who's, a Republican who is a Democrat, so Republicans are picking up non Non College the whites in large numbers, but we are shedding some college, especially women, college, educated voters and it's sort of shifting the composition. The party There are other challenges regarding age, meaning some of the youngest voters, the generation, the the millennials are, we Republicans, don't have great numbers, but the

point of that was to say the following things: one when you a national data, you're, looking data that includes California Oregon Washington and there are places where the Republican It's just not that competitive. But if you look at two things: first, you look at the most competitive house, races and torn in two thousand. Eighteen Republicans lost the total vote in those eighty seats. By about one point: that's pretty competitive and in competitive states. The is going to be a very close election and then kind of unrecognized is Party at a low point after the Bush era and the great recession where or the overall image of the party was negative by twenty one points. You don't do a tap dance, 'cause, you're negative by seven points, but that's a lot of improvement and as well all we have a long period now we're both political parties, republican and I have a net negative image, and so I do

what's under recognized are the scope The challenge is the Democrats have as well yes, sir, there. Of course a lot that I want to unpack, and the first thing is with regard to that exchange that you're talking about that truck. Is lead within the Republican Party of gaining on college educated white voters, losing college educated voters, in particular college educated white voters in wealthier, suburban areas. Do you think that that trade off is what allowed, to win the electoral college in twenty. Sixteen gaining those Non college, educated white voters in the upper Midwest, even though he lost ground in places like Texas and throughout the sun belt. Do you think that same strategy will work in twenty twenty? Well, I am I'm sorry I don't. I don't quite buy into that. These is entirely because twenty sixteen is a different animal. The the numbers I'm talking about are sort of two.

A years later after Trump's, been president, because it's important to recognize that the reason Trump won is because, in fact on a today, more than than better than the tracking polls, he improved his margins with with White College, especially men and women, and so the kind of shift that we're talking about is a lot more noticeable two years later than it was in twenty sixteen. So I I I I I do have a little different so far out there yeah I mean but just and just to clarify. So I'm sorry only not mean to be rude, coed Kaylin, just to clarify when we look at the places that swung the most from Romney in twenty twelve to Clinton in twenty. Sixteen, it was those highly educated districts in places like Texas is set

an Georges, sixth and places like that. And yes, there was an even more dramatic shift in the midterms in two thousand and eighteen, but we already saw that shift happening in twenty sixteen. I'm just saying it's modest tonight and the point I'm making is, I don't think you can. You can really talk about the trade off about education votes, given the two thousand sixteen exit polls, but to answer your but to all go on. One of the things you have to build in is not today's data and look. You know, there's no pole who's going to sit here and tell you they know, but October of twenty. Twenty is going to look like But this is why the nomination matters that it matters who the Democrats run and from work that we're doing if the demo that nominee, if he or she is sort of a Medicare AIR Frog the new deal and kind of kind of the full Kool grouping of Democrats are running on

there is every evidence and every likelihood that some of those same especially well educated white college men are not going to stay where they're at they're, not going to that. It's too for them on the democratic side and there they could be very much up for grabs in way that looks different than the vote behavior in twenty. Teen, and so so is there. So is the strategy for trying to win back those college. Educated white voters kind of mostly relying on who the democratic nominee is. I think that there are things that the Republican Party itself can do to try to win. Those orders back, but also I mean, is that even a necessary part of the strategy can trump do well enough, with non college. Educated whites that the Republican Party kind of totally some of those voters, that's a very scary way to run a railroad but yeah. To answer your question, I, at some point you max out in terms

how large the margins can be, and with Non College, educated, Non college, whites and the Trump campaign of twenty. Sixteen is, you know, pushing where's that MAX it's hard to beat people by more than forty points am it's an entire demographic group, which is where kind of margins were, with Non college, educated white men over Hillary Clinton. So you look, at the twenty eighteen results and obviously you say you need cushion and The cushion needs to be number one. You need to get some as a Republican is trump. You need to get some chunk of these White College graduates back and and for the most part, yes, I think the hand writings on the wall that has to have because of the contrast with the democratic nominee. I'd. Hey though another kind of unrecognized part of this is Trump is not a traditional

looking that has its strengths and it's got its downsides, but is sort of a non traditional republican his numbers among some chunk of Latinos. Even some chunk of african Americans aren't that bad and if democratic Party doesn't have an african american or Latino on the ticket. If that's the comma, it happened, I think so. Actually some signs in this that Trump could perform better. I don't mean you know great. That could perform better in ways with african american latino voters that mess up to Democrat margins a little after that happened in twenty. Sixteen, because with Obama on the on the ticket, some turn out dropped and- and it wasn't so much that Trump did better, but they you had a look. A little lower turn out that he had a little nudge here and there were. There was third and fourth party voting and all of a sudden you're, not winning by the same margin of bombing did and lo and behold, you lose Michigan by ten thousand votes

hello. I noticed that I noticed in the report. You do track how the party is doing amongst white voters, but there wasn't much on how the party is doing with non white voters, and you say that they could be part of a winning strategy depending on who the nominee is. So what is the republic the strategy there other than kind of relying on who do nominate? What's the pitch to nonwhite voters to vote for Trump in twenty twenty? Well, most amazing look, it is all economic. We have the lowest african american Latino unemployment in in forever and and I mean have we seen that move margins so far in terms of Trump's popularity amongst like Hispanics and african american voters, yeah I mean yeah. I mean the so, for example, saying Trump's numbers are not a characteristic, meaning that

with african american season the mid teens with Latinos even low 30s. Those are those are surprising numbers for repo, looking president with African Americans and Latinos, but the point I'm making is that we look you look at and if you're your, he look at a different question. We do, which is asking people who are somewhat disapproving of Trump and say: look we know you disapprove, but are there some things that you support that he's done and when you look at who were those people who say well, yeah, I'm not crazy. I have some. I disapprove, but yes, I, like some of the stuff, he's doing the things that begin pop. There are one in some additional mister margins with White College, guys summit Chancer margin to even

span margins with White Non College, guys and some of the younger millennials without college education, but is of just to me, is that there are some chunk of latino african american men who show up in that category and depending on the the gender of the ethnicity in the positions. The democrat nominee engines really matter and I think, there's more surely there than is generally recognized on local community if you're Donald Trump, and so it sounds like a lot of your thinking as head to who the eventual democratic nominee will be. Who do you hope that nominee will be, and perhaps who are you most afraid of well first time I don't really get a motiongate in that cuz. If there's pollsters, have certain limits the powers and who picking the Democrat nominee is one of them.

I I will say the following things about my views about the Democrat nominee. First, whoever the strongest candidates going to be the nominate cuz. If you start with twenty plus candidates, you start with this kind of campaign that kind of guess, gifts, organizational money, message, survival tenacity, whoever survives the nominee is the strongest person you can have like in these one shot primaries. You can have weird things happen you. I have a weird result times this many people over this long process. So so the answer for the answer, who is the toughest opponent that uh the phone is ever going to be the nominee? No two? I will be one shock puppy. If it's Joe Biden, I don't see how an old white guy was at a fifty year. Political career matches the psych. I today's democratic Party that will be

turning to me of that happens and is not the person you would be the most afraid of winning. No actually. No, I think I think the guy I mean here's another, my beliefs, not again, I can be respectful, his career and respectful of his service country, but He ran a lousy campaign in eighty eight here and allows the campaign in two thousand and eight he'll probably run a lousy campaign. This time- and you know the point- is I'm in I'm a certain age, no one's woken up and said, gosh MAC enters and so much better using tools. Now that he's in his sixties, I mean is a good at it. Ever I didn't get it man, I didn't get lots lots better at my tool. Use in my sixties Joe Biden not going become a great candidate after pretty lousy candidate at the presidential level, most of his life, and so was an opponent if you're not great candidate and you've been around fifty years in a country that wants change. I am not.

I don't wake up, pant worrying about Joe Biden. So again, do you see the Republican Party getting involved in the democratic primary? At all I mean you know. It sounds maybe a little bit weird to listeners, but like this isn't unheard of right opponents. You know general action. Opponents have gotten involved in primaries in the past. Claire Mccaskill in two thousand twelve is one example. You know airing ads about Todd Akins going. During the primary. Do you see that as a pop at all for Republicans in twenty twenty? No on as a zero path. There again, it's just not like a one off primary in the Senate race. In the other examples, it's a very complex national event times each individual state and most of these primaries are closed. So no, I do see any role for the Republican Party, but the

is the Democrat nominee who survives this despite his or her political gifts, and MIKE tension are going to be the strongest candidate in terms of the issue, positions that are likely to have adopted the I'll, be a massive idiot choice and my course my belief is that the Democratic Party is headed, presents an opportunity to have what is we always have, which is a choice election. We don't run presidential campaign Zahn. Do I want to really really like this guy? Yes or no? We run campaigns on God. Only these two options, and if I have these two options, where do I want to go and and and that kind of campaign with the Fred nominee with these issue positions? I think this is at the moment. I think it's a with this sort of level of EC I'm in some stability around the world. I think this is a very, very close campaign today, but I don't

in Washington DC. It's paper understand how close this campaign is structurally in terms not knowing who is going to be the next president. In the report, you kind of touch on this question, the ideological question- and you say quote: the twenty eighteen cycle also brought us. The first consistent mentions about democratic candidates being to socialists, and you say that this kind of thematic to be is at the heart twenty twenty election. So how exactly? I guess? How do you see socialism as at the heart of the twenty twenty election? Well, there are policy specifics, the purest form of Medicare for all, eradicates private health care coverage from the work and pulling that we've done. That's not a trade off that most people are willing to make the green new deal is, I suppose it's got. You can give it some points for its aspirational goals, but it's nuts it's a nuts economic policy and

so and some of the elements in the green new deal the elements for Medicare for all these are, I think they, I think using the word carefully. You can say these are radical changes from the american norm in terms of what? How do you know what we've, what what we've we've considered to be sort of in the mainstream of political thinking now by the way America changes, and so this is what makes presidential campaigns compelling American can changed. Action we can change. We proceed to be norms, but in the I think we've done if you're running as a Democrat, with a medicare for all meaning a single payer system with no private option at all who supports a green new deal, and we, you start lining up what you believe about. What do you think the country supposed to look like against the the Trump back in Namik record and the way things

top rated there just a lot of voters who take a long moment of pause between saying yikes? That's not where I want to, and You do that this becomes a very close campaign. Of course, looking back to the Obama presidency, Republicans ran against her as Obama being a socialist throughout his tenure. So I mean: is this cycle going to be totally different, that it will be more? After all this time around, like Democrats, a socialist has been a message for a pretty long time. It's not totally new to the two thousand eighteen mid terms. Sorry, I don't buy that either. I mean again it's okay to disagree, but I mean I've run these campaigns. I don't I mean you and say at the fringes that something Republicans say to themselves and they mumble mumble mumble. But there's you know it's not like,

but there's a John Mccain, add or Mitt Romney ads, saying hey. The trouble is that you know that Barack Obama is a socialist and bleeding socialist policies That's not where we've been, and so when we wrote- and we rode in this thing for the first time in two thousand and eighteen, you start reading hundreds and hundreds of verb, eight hundred am's by real cricket voters saying what's your hesitation about voting for the democratic candidate that's something we have not seen before. It is new. It's different and send SAM I'll be finished. I'm sorry! Oh I'm finishing this, and it's not like Rock Obama, Barack Obama's. But if you like your healthcare, you can keep it. He didn't get a and say: hey one hundred and eighty million people are going to lose your private health care coverage. This is different to a degree and that's the point. I'm making it's different to a degree.

A that's so far, America hasn't had this choice. That's what makes two thousand and twenty so fascinating. Given the likely democratic nominee. Bernie Sanders is the only democratic socialist running he's an independent. He doesn't identify. As a Democrat. Does the Republican Party still say whoever the Democrat is a socialist even if it's Joe Biden, who would tell you that he's not a socialist or Elizabeth Warren. Who would also tell you she's, not a socialist I'm not hung up on the label. I'm just hung up on the contrast on policy, and I think you can push these policies fairly far left. The other thing that's going to be clear is low. Already Bernie Sanders is already different. Category he's got, and the NBC Wall Street Journal work that we do he's got he's got the highest numbers is among the Democrats, saying I have reservations, were concern. That's today not going to get better for him. So again, I think he's on the list of peep.

It could be nominated by the Democratic Party, but you know he's been back in the public eye for three or four once and he's already? Very, not Canada is already large chunks of 'em. Perkins are already saying they got reservations or are very concerned about Bernie Sanders. Is president, I think all of that's the some of the first signs of what I'm mentioning, which is that the democratic nominating process is pushing these candidates into issue positions that are going to be very open to creating a very competitive election and and later is the other option The other option is Americans do hedge? Their bet they may vote mean you know they may have I mean we don't know, I don't know who's going to win. The nomination could be the Democrat, but I think that other part we don't talk about. Is it very possible like in nineteen. Ninety six the cut

reinserted? Some aggregate way said: ok, I guess we'll make built in president again, but we're going to keep it. Public in House and Senate is a check. It could be the may be the Democrat nominee wins, but he or she might find themselves with. Not only reply consented, but a republican house that are can, because I mean not- that will sit here and every human beings making this kind of strategic choice but sort of remarkable. When you look at this country's kind of pension for balance, though say that they are very happy making sure nobody has too much cloud or power in Washington and at each part, just somebody else overlooking their shoulder in this vein of you know who the leader of the Democratic Party ends up. Being you note in this report that, from your focus groups, Alexandria will cause your Cortez is becoming the defining image of today's democratic Party. That's a quote from your report. So how did you come to that conclusion? What did

in focus groups say about across your Cortez. Well, I'm I came like inclusion into regards one. How often your name gets mentioned? How and in what you're six stunning thing- and I say this is a compliment. This stunning thing is: she has seventy five percent name id she wanna pry, Mary was less than seventeen thousand votes about a year ago, her name id was parallel to a speaker, Pelow see in two thousand and seven and higher than most political figures in America, so eh woman who, a year ago no one heard of is now a national political figure with a muscle larger social media, following in any of the democratic leadership and she's America works she's helped create a policy for the green new deal, that's gone from angel idea to, Center, the democratic nominating process. So my point is in is it when I said that about her is eh eh

space in her name id, be it's based her, so India following see it's based on her ability to define the issue agenda for the Democrats party in a way, that's actually quite stunning and impressive, and for how much people talk about her, like normal people, talk about like? Oh that's what the Democrats, who that's, who the Democrats are like these days? That's the stuff they believe in all of that is the extraordinary to be doing for any Amber Congress, much less someone in this newly elected and it's another, and God bless your podcast, it's another sign of how communications and how the internet and how the world is shifted in terms of how you accumulate visibility, political power, and what you really sort of key in on with Ocasio Cortez and bring a Nancy Pelosi as well as how they are there underwater with Americans. Obviously, you know they don't get elected by the nation

large brick, in viewing them as leaders of the party or, image of the party. You really key on how unpopular they are. How does the party or strategically do you play on using I I mean, is that part of your strategy, the unpopularity of Ocasio, Cortez and Nancy Pelosi argued if we need to place, he has played a big big, big part in attack ads over the years. Does it because you're Cortez play that role now too? Well. She she me you can see all you can see that in some early advertising in two thousand and nineteen, but the other reality in life, is there demo yes going to nominate somebody, and whoever is the nominee of your party becomes the face? The party and the reason I wrote this about her in twenty nineteen is b so we have a lot of swing voters sitting in a room saying saying: oh, that seems a little scary. That's a little too far. That makes me very unconcerned, nervous, worried, they're expressing about her AOC's political views.

A discomfort about an uncertainty, and so if and when the Democrat nominee, it has the same positions. It's easy. He for me to to say: okay, having spent the I'm in this one room swing, women, voters and watching their reaction to these policy proposals and the uncertain an uncertainty and concern it because It's easy for me to believe that when the Democrat nominee, he or she says the same stuff, it's going to have the same reaction and you know the same reaction to differing degrees, because personnel is Matter Center Sanders is you know somebody who is not only says might say the same thing. He just has a capacity say things in a way. That's very

four and very kind of striding pushy and sees a Brooklyn guy, so I guess my key in on a concert for times, as opposed to say, Bernie Sanders. As you know how popular on popular he is and choosing him as the defining image of the party. Well, I don't get to make that choice. It's because when you that in groups we say hey when you think about the Democrats, who do you think about an what are they talking about these days? They talked about her, that's so they talked about her and, as I said, she freshman member of Congress with a massive social media following way beyond their own leadership. I I we're living in a very different world. You know New Gingrich, let's go back to his first term in nine, in seventy, nine in nineteen, eighty and eighty and early early, he it's remarkably influential, given his energy. Given ideas given is too kind of drive to try to change the Republican Party and it's possible

that if we knew that existed in in a world where you can have the social media filing maybe knew what it looked like in nineteen. Seventy, nine- and maybe be sitting in focus groups where, when you ask people when you think about the demo credit party and you think about their leadership who comes to mind- maybe that's what they be mentioning, but today they don't sit in focus groups have mention Bernie Sanders. They mention her and Bernice. So that's and and, as I said, the green new deal has gone for. Something who the hell heard about that before her nomination. Before she got elected to we have demo That's all over the place running for President saying they support the green new deal that it's and so and again, and it is okay I'm saying this is a compliment he's showing how the system works. It's remarke and she should be admired for if you believe that the point of holding office is to drive a policy and a word of debate about what your ideas are, she's been

partly successful and we can- and you can is neutral political observer appreciate what she's accomplished. At the same in time, you can say sorry that stuff is a little Erie too, to a lot of women voters that we've been meeting and talking with I wanted Keaton a little bit more on those demographics in particular who the swing. Voters are and trends among different groups such as women, as you mentioned, but first today's podcast is brought to you by we work. We work designs, flexible workspaces for businesses of all sizes and industries. We works versatel agreements, starting at month to month are dictated by the unique needs of your business moving. It is so easy. You'll never want to move out, enjoy the peace of mind, knowing that you can expand and contract your physical workspace without constraint on site community experts are dedicated to helping member businesses get the very best from their teams

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people. Are you enthusia stick about this candidate? Are you comfortable or do you have some hesitations or you very uncomfortable and the candidate who has the highest enthusiasm among all the national candidates is Donald Trump, and so, when we try to talk about again, let's be neutral political observers. I don't think, that people wake up, realizing that the candidate in this race, between the everyone new test on the democratic side. The republican side with the highest enthusiasm is Donald Trump. Now, conversely, that candidate with the highest percent, saying there very uncomfortable, is also Donald The guy is remarkably divisive and so he's got a hardcore kind of forty percent who love the guy in the from an at least that high in terms of any democrat nominee is going to start.

With that or a little higher vote, because it doesn't matter, I mean so. The the percentage of the electorate, that's locked down and very partisan an not able to be engaged and have very my feelings is very large, an arguably that could be in the low to mid 80s, so who's left over there's leftover are, for the most part. We have fairly low information about politics. People don't trust her like either political party a lot. Those are these downscale women who have very difficult lives. They don't wake up every day. Sorry, listening to your, castor my work or any of his political work and I've said: do you know in a in a way that people might find hard to believe, including my fellow posters, I do you think Trump versus some of the democratic candidates has a capacity to make some dance

among some very nontraditional votes amongst african american latino men, who, I think has a if there's a woman nominee of the democratic side. I think my consider Trump you mentioned Trump's negative in through the House numbers and when we're talking about swing, voters a significant part of the reason that Trump won in two thousand sixteen as well. Both candidates were historically disliked and among people who dislike both candidates, they broke for Trump. Where do you think the energy is best spent in terms of trying to? You know boost to Trump's approval over the next two years, or is it really better spent on trying to bring down for the eventual democratic nominees numbers are too kind of Trump's numbers? Well again, I don't. This is another issue which I don't crave, give great emotional angst. That's up to me, and the point is present, Trump has a certain style. There is, evidence that there any ability to curb change or alter a style so

if you run a campaign, you just you have to be for what's going to happen and Donald Trump is going to be done Trump there's nothing you're going to do about it. So at the margins in a campaign, the pride more control over what you say about your opponent, then what you do campaign that's going to impact president Trump, but I do want to ask say republican side out to specifically improve their lot with some of these key demographics that we've talked about women College, educated voters, non white voters. What do you see a specific actions that the party can take to improve their lot with those three groups? Well again most, most of the time from not having done this well. First, also, remember we even asking more about the president. There is is an entire world below that in terms of Senate Us Senate House campaigns of the rest of them.

Most of this time there you know the the president is giving the press and kind of more than fills the vacuum? There's not much error for any other political activity or dial beyond what he's talking about are doing at the time he's remarkable political figure that way he's been. That a since two thousand fifteen, and continues to be that way. Today, yeah and again, just like we can Hey I mean: are you a sees good? Are you saying that there is not much kind of like not many proactive things that the campaign strategists can do to try to improve the parties a lot with those three groups, because Trump's gonna do whatever he's going? I am I'm just saying that there's only sermon well, only certain amount of political oxygen, and so number one. The political oxygen can be clearly

minced sort of empathy, connection kind of under Any concerns then conveying kind of your own personal accomplishments to these groups in a way that they care about there's a lot of ways to translate how a much better economy, what that's meant for individual family and then the average campaign does well, although that's something we can do most every most is running for office. Due to enormous amount for the helps your local district and state and people find especially these fill those same women. Voters find all of that information incredibly compelling and but as I'm sorry, but as I said, look ultimately it's going to come down. You got a very big choice to make which direction? Do you want the president to go in and do you want the President go in? What could be conveyed is a risky untested

way beyond anything. We've ever done in this country or given the economic success and given, hopefully all over this stability around the world. Do you want? Do you want to keep with this, and I don't think that's going to be a landslide answer. That's my point. I think of that's the frame. It's a school, to be a very close election and where, in Washington, DC people, look at Trump's approval and say: okay, it's forty four can budgen so Ergo. You can't win forty four approval. I don't think, as I said, don't think they've is the gained out what this looks like after there's democrat nominee and there's that option presented obviously that strategy just laid out. You know unprecedented risk going with the Democrats versus kind of like stability in the world garden with Trump is kind of the situation that you've described regardless of how

allergists are or how republican strategist, but I talked to our other republican lawmakers that I talk to describe the world that we're living in ways up you know autonomy, that's doing well outside right. Trump is going to focus on what he's going to focus on if the twenty twenty election becomes about immigration, caravans, things that were the focus of attention around the two thousand eighteen mid terms. What effect do you think that has on Republicans prospects and twenty twenty sorry Galen? I just don't. I don't. I don't think that's hi. I just don't think that's a viable option in terms of what's going to happen. Do you think that one is what you're saying no. I have a look first off again, President Trump is very difficult to predict, so I'm not sitting here saying I in some secret sauce, where I can predict, I can be the person converted, but President Trump is going to do but in general, look all presidential elections are

in the car down the road hitting the gas that saying what direction we want to head in all meant elections. Are groups hit the get the break? I didn't mean that far that fast, so I I know I am so I'm I know again, not trying to be rude. I'm just saying I don't look back to look at what happened in twenty eighteen. What the debate was about now, what that tells us, because midterm elections are just massively different than presidential. She presidential re, elects there's not that much to learn from them. It's sort of don't don't, run the last campaign and look ahead to the next one and the next one ought to be and should be, the sort of massive choice and looked again, it's hard to describe the Trump era is stable, but it's. What you know I saw not sure I'd use the word stable. It's kind of what you know versus some. How great is the risk

and in general, that campaign is, has the potential based on where the Democrats rat to be potentially success so I want to wrap up are invited by the lab story by the way last thing in terms of how create the risk? That's the other thing for this Senator House candidates to say: ok, look I regret the risk is hey. Would you be better off if you had Republicans looking over their shoulder, so you nude, sure that they wouldn't have they couldn't they wouldn't have you know they wouldn't in charge of everything, and I think that there's going to be a very Hilton campaign in October to pay hedge, your bets, you can have a decision for president, but you have another way to backstop that decision to make sure that you don't turn over the entire entire package, to the Democrats, that you really can't quite trust and by the way that they keep saying. That's why it's important to say. Look the Democrats have huge problems as a party

even underwater for years on their own positive, negative and massively under water with white voters, it's not like it's not like the Democrats. Are thing on some reservoir of trust and a campaign. It's about risk. They don't have it so kind of presenting House and Senate candidates as a backup plan. If it looks like the presidency is going to Democrats we wrap up here. I do want to sorry even or if you don't know how the president is going to go. That's the way. I'd rather say it and sorry go ahead. Yeah for sure wrapping up here, I want to look down the pike. A little bit David Brooks a New York Times. Columnist recently came out with a column called quote the coming at G, o p apocalypse. You know anybody who's been paying attention for the past decade plus is familiar with. Like kind of these super dire demographic arguments about the futures of the parties and and obviously people who subscribe

those things were surprise in two thousand sixteen, but what David Brooks is a describing is a situation where blood overwhelmingly prefer Democrats and identify as liberal, along with generation, z and increasingly they're becoming a larger of course, part of the voting bloc, younger generations, gen axes, the millennials outvoted generations, for the first time, in a mid term in twenty eighteen for the first time in a general in twenty, sixteen and so on and so forth. Do you think that this is a fundamental structure, a problem for the Republican Party, the way that David Brooks does or is it's another one of those way, early dire demographic arguments that is doomed to be disproven in the next decade? well now there. Those are really concerning numbers by generation, but here's I'm not can

Haynes are long term, there's no there's no long term purity in guaranteed institutional anything. Our country changes too quickly so if Donald Trump wins, I will tell you that I'm not looking forward to a six year midterm election in twenty twenty two, if I'm impressed win. I think you're gonna see the you're going to see a incredibly good republican, mid term election, incredibly good, as the Democrats will over reach, because even if the for a lot of factors, the Democrat President wins narrowly. If and she or he pushes this far this direction, I don't think it's going to go well and and parties realigned based on results. So if Democrats to Win- and they put too far in and it doesn't work well and the and economies in trouble and blah blah blah, there's no, I'm sure anything. It's a pretty easy campaign to say: okay! Well, I was pretty risky. We tried it screwed up, you know in it didn't work

and all of a sudden, a lot of people who said, oh god, I can't believe it, but I'm going Republican will vote Republican, the best secret for the Republican Party, the Democrats, the best good for the Democrats or the Republicans and, like the oh, my gosh, Barack, the is going to start the you know, hundreds your rain for the Democratic Party, never to be seen repose every scene again. That was really let's shredded the democratic party. So, in terms of its role in it, Governors Congress legislators he it was start of hundreds of years of Democrats. He shredded the party. So I am sorry to anybody believes that you can get today's numbers with Trump in the big in the trump here and say this is low ten forever and these same young voters are never going to change and it's all gonna be awful, have ever seen. What happens when you have a fair presidency and it's your party like Jimmy Carter. So I guess, there's kind of two is going on here right, one is the pendulum swings

no from looking at american history, or at least recent american political history that you know what it does? Well, then the other party does well. We go back and forth and back and forth on the other millennials, aren't becoming more conservative as they grow older and Jen's. He is kind of rough Katie what we see amongst money. Also, even people who do I don't hi, as more republican leaning within those generations are still pretty we're roll on a lot of fundamental things that you ask about race and the role of government and climate change, and things like that. Will the Republican Party have to change to accommodate? You know younger rotors, if that's, who gonna pursue in future elections. I'm laughing because look, I'm a republic is, I believe, in private, I believe in the power private markets, so private markets drive behavior. So yes, the the answer is two things have to happen, one

there has to be a democratic meltdown. In other words, sooner or later I don't. I hope it's later there'll be a democratic. You know. Democrats will be in power in the b and and they'll be a meltdown and they'll. Take them they'll be on the back for that and to yes markets work and there will be shift and change and what it means to be a republican because markets work and that's the market and you'll have candidates who represent that market. But the point is. This is an again I'm not disagreeing with any number there in my report, I'm just saying: I don't believe that there's. I just don't believe that you can look at today's numbers and say that's a lot to tell us that for sure we're going to see a Democrat two thousand and ten twenty thirty years you know like we saw after Roosevelt. Everything we're seeing is things in this country are two fluid changed too much and here's the other thing, neither no one

This party really likes either party all that much the, and there is a capacity for change in this country that makes predicting, and that's why I'm humping humble makes any prediction. We should be very humble, 'cause, this country's capacity for change way: outpace is our capacity for prediction. Alright. Well, that sounds like a good place to end things. Thank you for sharing I'm sure they built bill Mcinturff. Co, founder and managing partner of public opinion strategies where he recently released. A report called what Republicans need to know as we move toward the twenty twenty election. That's a rap for hi, my name is Gail Injury. Our intern is Jake are low. You can get in touch by emailing us at pop cans at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see you soon,